Zeynep Tufekci

Profil AI Expert

Nationalité: 
Turc / Turque
AI spécialité: 
Collective Intelligence
Occupation actuelle: 
Professeur, Université de Caroline du Nord
Taux IA (%): 
37.88'%'

TwitterID: 
@zeynep
Tweet Visibility Status: 
Public

Description: 
Zeynep Tufekci est une sociologue américano-turque spécialiste des technologies de l'information et de la communication. Elle est professeure à l'université de Caroline du Nord. Elle est connue pour ses travaux sur l'impact social des réseaux sociaux. Zeynep entretien des newsletters tres appréciés par sa communauté qui est fan de ses analyses toujours très fines.

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Les derniers messages de l'Expert:

Tweet list: 

2023-02-27 01:00:00 CAFIAC FIX

2023-02-19 01:03:00 Cafiac fix

2023-02-16 03:03:22 RT @zchagla: The first glance at RSV vaccines - showing pre-F vaccines in those >

2023-02-15 19:28:44 RT @DavidDeutschOxf: There is a phenomenon in apocalypse cults, that when the spectacular event they were absolutely sure would happen demo…

2023-02-15 18:51:17 Already neglected one severe illness, and then a pandemic and many newly suffering from a heterogeneous set of illnesses under a single umbrella term, while mainstream neglect continues and otherwise marginal/fringe people see an opportunity to prey on this population? Not good.

2023-02-15 18:45:14 From having studied these platforms: Twitter, by design and algorithm, will inflame arguments and divisions — a preexisting problem for any movement — that could, perhaps, be much more easily handled in other settings. Patients can least afford needless bickering, though.

2023-02-15 18:39:23 From the literature/talking to clinicians. Long Covid is an umbrella term. Some clearly meet ME/CFS criteria based on symptoms/history. As far as I know, nobody can say what percent, because all the studies about this are from *clinics* and small samples—not representative.

2023-02-15 14:45:12 To clarify, the above off-hand reference to gas fumes wasn't about the NO2 debate — NO2 isn't the only harmful output of gas stoves. That said, many HEPA filers come with activated carbon filters for NO2, so the combination is great. For me, it's a "set it and forget it".

2023-02-15 14:38:27 @adsquires @je_mclaughlin Thanks! Yeah, original tweet was on general effects of gas cooking, which I had looked up and told by experts that HEPA does help, though I thought there was some potential reduction for NO2 as well? Will look up.

2023-02-15 14:35:34 @d_a_keldsen @je_mclaughlin Though there is other particulates with gas stoves (hence my tweet not focusing solely on NO2) that the HEPA helps with, and most commercial/home HEPA filter do come with carbon filters.

2023-02-15 14:23:12 See great HEPA noise/cost/size chart by @marwa_zaatari. Data: https://t.co/cw431w732g Don't underestimate noise as a factor. These numbers are for the highest setting, so if noisy, people will run them lower. Corsi-Rosenthal is a DIY option that works! https://t.co/bXpxxHcb5b

2023-02-15 14:17:20 HEPA is a well-established standard and they all work. Multipurpose good! The goal is to buy one that matches the size of the room, with noise and budget as considerations, WHILE AVOIDING GIMMICKS. HEPA is what one needs. Links/explanation in next tweet. https://t.co/9ZxmxnQEB4 https://t.co/BnPfux5PiQ

2023-02-15 13:48:13 RT @j_g_allen: 1/ REPORTERS: I spoke to a few reporters looking into the Ohio train derailment. Informative to look at this prior derailmen…

2023-02-15 13:40:57 @je_mclaughlin I’ve seen multiple studies that show a reduction. But ventilation is surely more efficient, agree. https://t.co/kDrTFU7HRS

2023-02-15 13:34:48 @MollyHouse77 Sorry.

2023-02-15 13:34:31 RT @BillHanage: Good article on what is likely to have actually happened covid wise over the last few months in China https://t.co/gcM8dHpY

2023-02-15 13:30:32 Pre-pandemic, I was meh about infection control, tbh, partially because I rarely get sick. (I know, luck of the immune system). Now I have a quiet, high-capacity HEPA filter in my home and I do run it. Why not? Good for the gas stove fumes as well. I also wash my hands more!

2023-02-15 13:23:49 There is prepandemic work showing it can be aerosolized, especially through vomitting — there was a correlation between time since vomitting (few hours) and airborne concentrations/outbreak. See paper below. It’s a stubbornly stable virus.  https://t.co/U3D1OdqNfj https://t.co/ZT0IsVM1H7

2023-02-15 13:09:26 Norovirus is known to have a short course but really unpleasant. Quick reminder: It does spread by surface and touch. Soap works but hand sanitizer doesn’t. Diluted bleach works for disinfecting surfaces. Staying hydrated and resting while waiting it out is the advice. https://t.co/RztUmcZf8I

2023-02-15 03:51:33 @MarvinH2_G2 @DavidSteadson @jbakcoleman Not sure why we’re comparing here? Q was on multiple infections. That said, I think we went from incorrectly saying “worry about the flu instead” (I loudly objected in early 2020) to dismissing it. Influenza kills and triggers post-viral, cardio &

2023-02-15 03:04:39 @MarvinH2_G2 @DavidSteadson @jbakcoleman Also. In general influenza has a huge burden. Also associated with a lot of neurological negative outcomes https://t.co/uKfisCJzX2

2023-02-15 03:02:52 @MarvinH2_G2 @DavidSteadson @jbakcoleman Influenza is really bad for cardiovascular outcomes. Noticeable uptick. See this trial in heart patients. (Vaccines really help.) https://t.co/1X3MAncMyo

2023-02-15 03:00:08 @biztsar @jbakcoleman I’m deleting the above, misread a line. See below! It’s 17% of the infected who get it twice a year. Same point though. It’s not unheard of with other viruses either, even flu. https://t.co/UctWW8ZbyI

2023-02-15 02:56:22 @GkaKgrab @jbakcoleman Thanks. Saw that. Corrected here. Same point though. https://t.co/UctWW8ZbyI

2023-02-15 02:47:24 @DavidSteadson @jbakcoleman (Above: People with two children in the household, have one or more viral infections in the house more than half the year. Kids under five are infected more than half the year. Much of the time, people don’t even know they’re positive. No home tests).

2023-02-15 02:44:43 @DavidSteadson @jbakcoleman Ah, good catch on the first. Thanks. Same point though slightly different numbers — people would test positive a lot more often if they tested like we do for COVID. See here — see kids under 5 or people with two kids. https://t.co/kw4avVTJKr

2023-02-15 02:32:14 RT @jamesinturkey: Turkey’s former parliament speaker last night sent up a test balloon to gauge what the public mood would be if this summ…

2023-02-15 01:56:00 RT @paulmozur: Twitter's current dysfunction is having a major impact far from the culture wars that dominate the platform in the U.S. On C…

2023-02-15 01:53:12 RT @ZoeSchiffer: NEW: Elon Musk directed Twitter engineers to design a secret system to boost his tweets over everyone else's after his pos…

2023-02-15 01:19:47 RT @VirusesImmunity: Thrilled to share this Comment in @TheLancetInfDis that I coauthored with the amazing @PutrinoLab on “Why we need a de…

2023-02-14 22:44:36 @heidithewiz @jbakcoleman Not true. We just don’t test for it like Covid. https://t.co/qAA9xOnGrF

2023-02-14 22:29:27 @tweetviapete @jbakcoleman Reading the scientific literature for studies that looks into these questions. See here for that study. https://t.co/qAA9xOnGrF

2023-02-14 18:05:44 RT @j_g_allen: Good tick-tock of the Ohio train derailment https://t.co/UEfwJ2PkIf

2023-02-14 15:57:26 RT @PaulMainwood: If anyone believed that epidemiologists were in some way special in struggling to communicate the difference between fair…

2023-02-14 14:05:25 @bete_n0ire @biztsar @jbakcoleman Yeah, that’s an example of medical doctors being unable to read an epidemiological study. Sadly common.

2023-02-14 13:44:23 @OmicronData @GidMK @BristOliver Proportionally speaking, highest risk for second type was pre-vaccine (primary infection with a novel virus as an adult)

2023-02-14 13:38:45 @OmicronData @GidMK @BristOliver Sequelae from severity have come down. Plus that group is also highly correlated with age since elderly have more severe cases from all infections. Immune dysregulation type resembles ME/CFS and doesn’t correlate with severity of acute phase, but it is a very severe illness.

2023-02-14 13:36:04 @OmicronData @GidMK @BristOliver But those are clearly very different subcategories of LC: 1-one that correlates with severity 2-one that correlates with prior exposure that’s seen among young with mild cases (hence the large pre-vaccine era group). Vaccines reduced both, but causal pathways seem different.

2023-02-14 13:12:52 RT @jbakcoleman: Reading this entirely obvious point, somehow absent from covid twitter discourse, was a breath of fresh air. https://t.co/

2023-02-13 16:13:41 This is so useful. Many obviously can’t follow complicated topics like this. Meanwhile, there are people on Twitter, who will misrepresent what complex immunology studies are actually saying, essentially using jargon salad and bluster. (Works for antivaxxers, too!) Thanks, Marc! https://t.co/eFgNmkhHYE

2023-02-13 02:10:52 RT @davenewworld_2: Elon Musk is at the Super Bowl sitting next to Rupert Murdoch https://t.co/xQdyqo7H5Q

2023-02-13 02:04:42 RT @BaileyCarlin: White blood cells showing up to help the body fight infection and other disease https://t.co/04QMBUFmBA

2023-02-13 01:53:34 Sorry, tomorrow’s extraterrestrial event quota is full. How about *checks calendar* next Thursday? https://t.co/LOWCDvW9xf

2023-02-12 21:14:32 More studies being explained with contexts. Helpful. https://t.co/Xg7Ba7s552

2023-02-12 19:00:15 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright But clearly, there is a significant number of people with ME/CFS, and I suspect a lot of underdiagnoses if people are kinda managing, because doctors don't know how to screen for PEM, POTS, etc. — the more telltale stuff even if the person is able to kinda keep going.

2023-02-12 18:59:06 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright Yeah, lacking good data. Maybe total risk will be measured now. Per infection is hard. We don't measure infection rates for much else. When we do, we find almost half the population gets the flu once a year, and about 17% twice a year (most don't know, mild due to immunity).

2023-02-12 18:46:08 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright One open question is what the ME/CFS baseline risk may have been before? We had (largely ignored, neglected &

2023-02-12 18:39:09 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright So if almost entire of UK got Omicron — compared to maybe 7% from all of 2020 and considering how many are still ill from that 7%, you can look at current ONS national results from 2022 &

2023-02-12 18:36:27 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright Hence my point about sampling. If one uses electronic health records, as most of the studies besides ones like the ONS do, you can get misleading results. After Omicron essentially infecting almost the entire population, national-level surveys are better than biased subsamples.

2023-02-12 18:26:40 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright Top notch immunologists studying Long Covid like Akiko Iwasaki don't expect reinfections to produce similar levels of Long Covid—something we'll look for as data comes in. And the problem is those who are ill are finding themselves left behind, in terms of attention and support. https://t.co/InYnnxcJN9

2023-02-12 18:22:09 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright So you get two conclusions: the pre-Omicron era produced many more people who got syndromic Long Covid per infection basis, and also the Omicron wave produced many because it was so huge, though risk per infection looks to be way down.

2023-02-12 18:20:33 @IppoAng @ShaneyWright People are definitely self-reporting Long Covid from Omicron though you can't compare easily year to year, since methodology changed. But you have more people (and seemingly stuck) from earlier era less of infection, compared to the era when the entire population got infected.

2023-02-12 17:56:25 @ShaneyWright @IppoAng Biomarker is ideal but imo self-report would go a long way with better definitions/sampling. ONS is good even without controls. A recent paper asked college students if they had “fatique”, no controls, at four weeks and then said 34% have LC. Say what? This hurts patients.

2023-02-12 17:50:58 @ShaneyWright @IppoAng Also see this infection estimate from ONS. Seems pretty much the entire UK population has been infected at least once during Omicron waves, but bulk of the people with debilitating Long Covid are from before that era, again based on the ONS survey. Those people are clearly stuck. https://t.co/MSSxMlwWB3

2023-02-12 17:44:01 @ShaneyWright @IppoAng Yeah. 12 weeks, severity measures, more precise symptom definitions (include PEM an POTS symptoms) and a control group — lots of people have stuff happen, you want to catch the post-Covid ones not just population baseline — would go a long way, along with a proper sampling frame.

2023-02-12 17:36:04 @ShaneyWright @IppoAng If you sample from clinics, or like the above — very biased response rate, so likely people in trouble are responding — recovery is way lower. The vague and imprecise definition of Long Covid, imo, has greatly harmed Long Covid patients who have chronic, debilitating illness.

2023-02-12 17:34:45 @ShaneyWright @IppoAng Problem is the definition and lack of proper sampling. If you define Long Covid as “lingering symptoms”, even one, at four weeks without controls—which is where the highest prevalance estimates come from—most appear to recover because that’s… well, expected for mundane sequelae.

2023-02-12 15:02:52 Official death toll from the earthquake is now 30,000. Still going up. The destruction spans a wide area. This is larger than the 1938 Erzincan quake — previously the largest loss of life in a disaster in the republic era. Millions of people are internally displaced as well. https://t.co/dVku01DTSe

2023-02-12 01:10:54 Adding to thread! Marc is explains a preprint of interest for Long Covid. (Always useful to have these explanations from an expert as immunology is complex!) https://t.co/8hB10lSR3e

2023-02-11 21:54:57 @Dave99117584 @DrNeilStone @michaelmina_lab More people get initial dose, huge and target benefit, and also longer interval produces higher quality and broader immune response, and, we didn’t know at the time, it greatly reduces the risk of myocarditis. Three to four weeks is too short and uncommon. Done to speed trials.

2023-02-11 21:39:50 @cjmaddison Agree it may be contributing. However, middle age men dropping out of the workforce after a bump is a prepandemic known issue in the US (the deaths of despair…) and it would be weird to have women, more affected to show an increase in participation like this if men were all LC.

2023-02-11 21:32:27 @technoslerphile @DrToddLee @villagerssn Surgisphere did something peer review is bad at catching: fraud. What we’re doing here, scrutinizing a paper for a particular issue, is the stuff peer review should catch better imo. Fake data is a different problem. Though for that case, it was screaming something is weird.

2023-02-11 21:29:27 @SeaFlourChild @EricTopol @TheLancetInfDis NYC has a great distribution system. Exemplary.

2023-02-11 21:27:14 @DrNeilStone @michaelmina_lab Someone will eventually do the paper showing how many deaths and hospitalizations and Long Covid could have been averted had the US followed the logical route taken by UK, Canada and many others. In the US, it couldn’t even be discussed rationally, imo.

2023-02-11 21:25:22 @DrNeilStone @michaelmina_lab When we proposed voluntary delay and trial, the vitriol from highly-credentialed non-immunologists was interesting. I get nothing is simple, many immunologists were clear that three (Moderna!) or four weeks was *too short* for affinity maturation—picked to speed up the trials.

2023-02-11 21:19:34 @MAbsoud @kellmano9 I realize it’s become politicized and there are other risks, but I think pandemic produced a lot of solid immunology and epi on higher risk of sequelae and/or complications from primary infection. Whether it’s substantial enough likely depends on prevalance as age is also factor

2023-02-11 21:15:16 @DrToddLee @villagerssn @AditGinde @EricTopol Oh my goodness. It’s one of my prouder moments that I took one look at the Surgisphere study and decided it was either bunk or magic. I decided to wait for someone else to do the leg work.

2023-02-11 21:12:25 @cjmaddison For the people struggling with Long Covid and working? For sure, productivity must have taken a hit. How many? I’ve not seen any good data. IMO, lack of a better effort at systematic, reliable data on the epi of this is an indication of how little importance is given to it.

2023-02-11 21:05:46 @MAbsoud @kellmano9 Something to check back on, after an immunonaive cohort grows up for a few years, and we have comparative data from a few countries. I think everyone agrees that adverse outcomes are rare, but we vaccinate children against many relatively rare negative possibilities.

2023-02-11 21:03:41 @kellmano9 @MAbsoud But right now, the seropositivity is so high among children, if there is to be data to convince them, it’s not going to come up quickly, and thankfully, adverse events are lower incidence enough that it would take some time to accumulate it from the cohort that’s now being born.

2023-02-11 21:02:27 @kellmano9 @MAbsoud On childhood vaccinations, I get their logic. I do think pre-vaccine era data, MISC, sequelae, and the fact that most people deep in immunology I know *rushed* to immunize their children based on the basic principle of safer first exposure, think they may change their mind.

2023-02-11 21:00:38 @kellmano9 @MAbsoud Well, not gonna defend Twitter discourse. Also remember there was a huge outcry when they, sensibly, said it’s fine to mix-and-match vaccines if you don’t know brand of first one rather than delay vaccination. That’s almost certainly better anyway? At least not a problem.

2023-02-11 01:43:47 @MarkELindsay brb buying twitter blue, gonna need lotsa extra characters..

2023-02-10 21:12:45 RT @ahoysvet: "We also need heightened surveillance for poultry and pig farm workers" Calls for screening for viruses among pigs and peop…

2023-02-10 21:03:34 @norabird

2023-02-10 18:45:32 @BenMazer This is very common in this area. People don’t understand what’s actually going on and think AI threatens things that it will actually strengthen. (Opposite also true from the other direction, people thinking AI will never do X because X is sooo special. AI will be good enough!)

2023-02-10 18:43:11 RT @BenMazer: Doctors have been promoting AI in medicine relentlessly. Complete lack of understanding of the incentive structures here.

2023-02-10 18:00:48 Please don’t listen to nonsense about H5N1 either. It’s important for authorities to act, yes. But seeing social media folks with a terrible track record on COVID now jumping on this, with nonsensical claims.Maybe it’s because their COVID echo chamber has dwindled so much? https://t.co/rFQjuyAWBI

2023-02-10 17:51:01 And when @michaelmina_lab and I proposed in December 2020 to consider this in the US and to trial it, and that principles of immunology suggested it would produce better outcomes *and* we’d have faster wider coverage… we got treated as if we’d been proposing something wild. https://t.co/Y8H97WoAkS

2023-02-10 16:25:41 So making view counts visible hasn’t increased participation, huh, quelle surprise. (See top of thread). https://t.co/GnJSA6EQcN

2023-02-10 16:08:41 These are the conditions under which so many people — families to volunteers to crews from so many countries —have been crawling under the unstable piles of rubble to try to save people. https://t.co/emTB0IrD11

2023-02-10 15:29:38 RT @p_zalewski: Man interrupts Turkish state TV broadcast from earthquake zone. “Can you ask them, are they pleased they left this place al…

2023-02-10 15:02:40 RT @linseymarr: "Monitoring the indoor environment for pollution should become standard practice in public spaces." https://t.co/sgO16SyZ7

2023-02-10 14:55:55 RT @arzugeybulla: The building in the photo is making rounds on social media. It belongs to the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and…

2023-02-10 14:43:07 RT @Derya_: This was one of the major results of our 5 year hard work on #MECFS - We found major disruptions in metabolism and linked micro…

2023-02-10 14:43:04 @Derya_ Thank you both for your work.

2023-02-10 12:53:20 Striking satellite imagery investigation from the NYT, showing the extent of the damage. The collapse in historic downtown of Maraş is catastrophic. Also "soft story" buildings —commercial outlet in the first floor— seem to have had a major impact. https://t.co/INZTYlDyvO https://t.co/KPHe8OwsFG

2023-02-10 12:43:44 RT @SusanKentMN: Deeply moving &

2023-02-10 12:43:32 JAMA H5N1 article. Additional info: In the mink outbreak, no workers were infected, though in Europe farm workers wear masks and other PPE because of past COVID outbreaks among minks. We also need heightened surveillance for poultry and pig farm workers. https://t.co/DYkHrmhB3E https://t.co/u6v99SJ2TA

2023-02-10 04:48:35 RT @ArditiMd: Thank you Zeynep

2023-02-10 02:36:04 RT @belinda17802257: This is a beautifully tender &

2023-02-10 02:35:15 This article. I have vivid memories of an elderly gentlemen I encountered in the 1999 quake. Sitting outside the rubble of his house. Tending to his birds. He said he'd gone back to rescue them. He burst into tears talking about his house, his family. https://t.co/3FFr8ksMno https://t.co/F9gVTtdYwi

2023-02-10 01:53:02 RT @quinnemmett: A beautiful, crushing, reflective, and urgent piece from @nytdavidbrooks.

2023-02-10 01:33:58 @ArditiMd Of course! Thank you for all your work, despite all the Twitter nonsense.

2023-02-09 22:50:52 @DeryaTR_ Hep aynı sorun.

2023-02-09 22:50:02 Scientists walking along the surface rupture, documenting a 6.7m offset. Largest I’ve seen from this. https://t.co/TPxjOfhbgR https://t.co/9sWYxyxQaa

2023-02-09 21:30:13 @CSexton_Writer @nytdavidbrooks

2023-02-09 21:06:50 @BobSmit74625407 @LilanaPa In which case consider yourself lucky and follow the scientists! I assure you it’s not a random rant. I have about two years of experience with this now. Obviously, if you’re not encountering it, please feel free to ignore it.

2023-02-09 21:02:38 RT @NeedhiBhalla: "I learned, very gradually, that a friend’s job in these circumstances is not to cheer the person up. It’s to acknowledge…

2023-02-09 21:02:19 @DonJRobertson @joeszaka The complexity is the whole range of things I'd want to connect this to, beyond psychotherapy. But genuinely hard to discuss on Twitter because it's full of sensitive topics that I'd need both space and precise wording, I think. Not 240 at a time.

2023-02-09 21:00:22 @LilanaPa See below. A huge amount of tweeting on Twitter on this topic comes from the third crew. You've quite likely encountered it from them, because they tweet nonstop. I just take the opportunities to direct people to the actual scientists. Have a great day! https://t.co/F1fjyn5Raa

2023-02-09 20:58:32 @LilanaPa The con that the third crew is "positing" anything. You have to be doing science to be positing anything, not tweeting bluster on *other* people's work that one is not part of—especially when the actual scientists who work on the topic are clear on what they think of the nonsense

2023-02-09 20:56:08 @LilanaPa Separate. I linked to the actual scientists working on this question. Some other scientists are skeptical. That's fine. A third crew just shouts nonsense about the topic very loudly on Twitter, but they aren't involved in the science/research. They're the liars obsessed with me.

2023-02-09 20:52:24 @LilanaPa (I was told of rumors they will now try to sue people like me and others to try to shut us up from alerting people like you. What can I say? LOL and I look forward to the opportunity to bring more publicity to this, as I do feel bad for the conned folks). Have a great day!

2023-02-09 20:49:22 @LilanaPa @BrodinPetter @ArditiMd That's why I post! Maybe a few people like you who have been conned can recognize the real scientists who are working on this hypothesis. Science isn't people making claims based on other people's work with nothing more than constantly tweeting I WAS RIGHT while also lying.

2023-02-09 20:47:48 @LilanaPa @BrodinPetter @ArditiMd I'm not subtweeting. They haven't posited anything, it's just word salad from that end. Here are the two actual scientists working on that hypothesis. Science isn't just blustering word salad *about* OTHER PEOPLE'S real work, while also lying about it. This is the science part.

2023-02-09 03:46:44 A BBC article about THE topic in Turkey — after rescues and helping survivors, of course. “In part the problem is that there's very little retrofitting of existing buildings, but there's also very little enforcement of building standards on new builds,” says Prof Alexander. https://t.co/2i6YqbhfBq

2023-02-09 03:43:09 @javierpallero That logic makes no sense.

2023-02-09 03:39:06 RT @nytimes: The death toll from the earthquake rose to more than 15,000 in southern Turkey and northern Syria on Wednesday, with unknown n…

2023-02-09 03:35:21 Another amazing surface rupture photo — 3.5m lateral offset. https://t.co/UJLVTCZFs1 https://t.co/Q2bSDBMvCr

2023-02-09 02:45:50 Striking before and after photos from Reuters, for Kahramanmaraş. (The stadium now has tents.) Too many collapsed buildings look somewhat new from the picture. There needs to be a study of what happened and why, and in relation to where the fault line was located. https://t.co/VjkreN1785

2023-02-09 00:01:14 @evacide Both happened. (The former more throttle).

2023-02-08 23:08:00 Video instructions for using scheduled tweet to get around the current outage. Dünya çapındaki şu anki Twitter sorununu aşmak için ileri tarihe planlama yöntemi. It works, well, if you are able to access Twitter (which may require VPN in Turkey). https://t.co/64u0q4iHjR

2023-02-08 22:48:02 Global outage might be related to this. Uhh, how much to subscribe a recently earthquake-stricken country to Twitter Blue? Ability to tweet is enough! People had been trying to shift to Instagram, anyway, due to the throttle but that seems down, too? https://t.co/pnHpxvVCF7

2023-02-08 22:42:02 And now, there seems to be a global outage as well — this isn't related to whatever was happening in Turkey. This is affecting everyone. (How am I tweeting? The "schedule this tweet for future posting" option from the browser UI works). https://t.co/Zklf1jWCjX

2023-02-08 21:17:04 Person coordinating aid and rescues in Turkey earthquake says: “We did most of our aid coordination on Twitter. Since the restriction, we went down by 70%”. He gives examples of people being pulled alive from the rubble after Twitter messaging and coordination directed help. https://t.co/FrPyVmLihL

2023-02-08 19:24:38 Two more incredible photos of the surface rupture from the Turkey earthquake, a 3.3m left lateral slide (measured by the scientist doing the field work). https://t.co/MK6CF9nvnU https://t.co/Y4p2tJtR60

2023-02-08 18:01:50 RT @p_zalewski: The scale of this is just overwhelming. In Antep, as rescue workers search for survivors in one building, another collapses…

2023-02-08 17:10:53 Some journalists are reporting that the official internet agency BTK is, indeed, confirming that Twitter is being throttled in Turkey. But I haven’t seen a direct announcement from them. Meanwhile, VPNs reportedly do work, and some VPN companies responded by expanding bandwidth. https://t.co/sQemBll5yg

2023-02-08 16:38:08 RT @azizfirat: i don't know what to say anymore

2023-02-08 16:36:38 @EpsilonTheory Thank you!

2023-02-08 16:16:19 And if a dreaded outbreak happens, it wouldn't be as high a fatality rate as the (so far) dead-end infections from close contact with poultry. We likely only detect severe ones. But that's largely irrelevant. It could easily be, and likely be, catastrophically high anyway.

2023-02-08 16:11:13 Is H5N1 the only potential pandemic influenza? No. Can anyone make predictions? Again, it's like predicting earthquakes. Influenza pandemics are *regular* in human history. Some risk factors are up, but also more tools. What's the response? That's the question that matters.

2023-02-08 16:05:56 But that’s not how it goes. That’s like saying a big earthquake didn’t happen before therefore it won’t happen in the future. Getting lucky with avian or swine flu or successfully suppressing it before doesn’t eliminate future threats. At all. https://t.co/2w0d0LbEMW

2023-02-08 15:59:36 @JenniferNuzzo Great interview! But last June, thus pre mink farm outbreak. Also a bear cluster in Montana, possible single exposure but.. Awaiting report. Everyone I spoke with ratcheted up risk after the mink farm, and CDC saying "we got this" needs more detail after last three years...

2023-02-08 15:53:51 Many Twitter folk respond they're mad at public health, so they won't take a future H5N1 vaccine. I urge some thought to who would be punished, but okay. Others say: you rejected some (nonsensical), alarmist claim about COVID, so what now? Yeah, exactly. Let's reject nonsense.

2023-02-07 23:29:40 @sogrady

2023-02-07 22:33:55 RT @IdaRudolfsen: I tried to think of something to write, but there are no words. Please, donate to the relief organizations who are workin…

2023-02-07 21:51:48 Widespread reports of not just lack of rescue crews and specialized equipment, which is hard to have enough of given the scale of the destruction, but also generators, fuel and lights for rescue efforts with whatever is available. Second night below freezing. This is so tragic.

2023-02-07 21:47:13 Journalist turns off own lights, you see whole area is dark. Race against time. One thing I did a lot in the 1999 earthquake rescue was to “acquire” lights. We didn’t have enough. Work stopped without. Many apartments, uh, “donated” via me. But we had fuel. Seems they’re short. https://t.co/xzLVfIxkVn

2023-02-07 18:53:10 RT @cagataykurt: Amerikadaki arkadaşlar tpf e yardım yapabilirler. 501c3 non-profit.

2023-02-07 18:22:57 RT @DawnHulot: See for ways to donate #earthquake

2023-02-07 17:32:41 I’m not there. But I lived through the 1999 earthquake, including witnessing first hand the frustrations afterwards. We were first to reach some areas that had been completely neglected. The scale this time of the destruction and the despair and increasing anger is.. notable. https://t.co/FvjqN1ff6V

2023-02-07 17:26:03 RT @seabbs: Everything I have seen from the CFA is really encouraging in terms of mission and implementation. I think this could be a pre…

2023-02-07 14:43:57 Notice the rescuer emerging from under the rubble with the girl. Rescuers often work under the unstable rubble for long periods of while major aftershocks continue unabated. And they’re also cutting through, increasing the risk. I counted 10 at M5 or larger just in the last day. https://t.co/WfXjMFh2AR

2023-02-07 14:15:15 RT @heissenstat: That didn't take long. Istanbul State Prosecutor begins first Investigations of journalists for reporting on emergency re…

2023-02-07 13:54:17 RT @WilliamMcNulty: Not how it’s supposed to work when you run the largest news site in the world and get caught pumping Russian propaganda…

2023-02-07 13:48:55 I’ve donated to this campaign to provide relief for earthquake victims in Turkey. US-based NGO. Chobani founder @hamdiulukaya is matching the next million dollars in donations. https://t.co/H1IhTylafL https://t.co/BxwQvj3wNw

2023-02-07 13:45:41 RT @OAJonsson: There’s a lot of people saying Elon is buying Russian propaganda with lamenting ~2,700 NATO personnel killed in Ukraine. An…

2023-02-07 13:44:39 RT @rafsanchez: Elon Musk casually spreading disinformation claiming that NATO has lost thousands of troops in Ukraine.

2023-02-07 13:41:12 @davidmanheim Let me block you so you can sharpen your googling skills.

2023-02-07 13:36:36 @MartianOrthodox No I get it. What I’m saying is you don’t get it who is being punished here by you. If you refuse the H5N1 vaccine, it’s going to benefit people who get earlier access because of less demand, and well.. you are on your own. Same with annual flu tbh though no supply issue there.

2023-02-07 13:28:47 @HoldernessEU Yes. Already heard of some terrible situations. Very difficult conditions.

2023-02-07 13:26:45 @davidmanheim No. Seismologists aren’t classifying as an aftershock. See map as well.

2023-02-07 13:16:36 I think I accidentally bifurcated the thread. I’m just adding the other one here, you can scroll up for a few of the updates if you’re interested. But the scale of this is enormous. See below. https://t.co/QExdVLE7ax

2023-02-07 13:04:14 Glad to see @VATF1 mobilizing. In the 1999 earthquake in Izmit, the trained dogs found people we couldn’t otherwise locate or hear from. Then women (often women! smaller frames!) rescue specialists crawled into the rubble amidst the strong aftershocks to cut through the debris. https://t.co/dQGBVLUiE2

2023-02-07 12:43:04 @AkinUnver (I wouldn’t pick the international ones listed for this. Local capacity is there).

2023-02-07 12:42:11 @AkinUnver As an option. https://t.co/ikSkPzZuK9

2023-02-07 02:43:40 @keiramchale @tphilanthropy

2023-02-07 02:11:18 RT @neubadah: For those asking where to donate for relief efforts in Turkey and Syria, two trusted NGOs where the money will reach people o…

2023-02-07 01:05:06 @ArditiMd @VirusesImmunity @yoncabulutmd @esenol @DeryaTR_ @emin_adin @ahbap @rabiagozden @TRConsuLA @atopeli @isil_arican @AkcanArikan @DeannaMarie208

2023-02-06 23:42:13 RT @SamuelBickett: Names and faces of the Hong Kong heroes who have sacrificed so much and are now on trial for trying win an election. The…

2023-02-06 23:17:39 Still hard to wrap one's mind around the scale. Two *separate* earthquakes, ten hours apart, M 7.8 and M 7.7 (matches the largest in all of 20th century in Turkey) with a fault break across hundreds of miles —anywhere on it is at risk— in heavily populated area with many cities. https://t.co/mJPnLOZRR4

2023-02-06 23:06:02 @rashmi Thank you!

2023-02-06 23:01:32 RT @PutrinoLab: Hi all, we're recruiting for another #LongCOVID trial, but we need to tap our FULLY RECOVERED or NEVER INFECTED community f…

2023-02-06 22:45:21 @nataliesurely @smithsj @WilboBaggins95 You could have said "where's the tissue damage, then, eh?" to other patient groups who finally got the actual answers once money to research and technology to measure caught up. This one looks like them. Go pick something else without "tissue damage": how about cancer brain fog?

2023-02-06 22:42:31 @nataliesurely @smithsj @WilboBaggins95 Correct you've written this one (and response which I found lacking) but many (other) pieces in this vein. On the evidence: I'm convinced you're wrong and on the wrong side of history, and your refusal to grapple with this is harmful to very, very vulnerable, maligned patients.

2023-02-06 22:18:31 For those asking how to help with the earthquake in Turkey, see pinned tweet. I’ve donated to this US-based NGO because I know they have local capacity and will do good work. I suspect the situation in Northern Syria is horrendous. I welcome suggestions. https://t.co/H1IhTykCqd https://t.co/ikSkPzZuK9

2023-02-06 22:11:32 @m_monemy I still remember this woman we almost missed. No sound. Confused dogs. Many places to try. Desperate relatives. Too few crews with equipment. Went back for one last Hail Mary and there she was. Not even badly hurt—just days under the rubble. Imagine knowing and being unable.

2023-02-06 22:07:08 @rashmi https://t.co/ikSkPzZuK9

2023-02-06 21:56:29 Ongoing problem. Live news footage: they get an aftershock and more buildings collapse. It's very cold, and millions can't go into the buildings. The buildings are also very dense, where to even camp? (Judging by timestamp, it's this M 6.0 one). https://t.co/f9ZPGEn8Io https://t.co/zlgBFYvc7A

2023-02-06 21:44:47 @RodrigueBiscuit @nataliesurely @smithsj @WilboBaggins95 When I realized "it's airborne" scientists had the clear weight of evidence, and the people still writing denials based on accumulated historic errors would end up as case studies in future studies of the failures, I tried to warn people not to be the last ones. Same here.

2023-02-06 21:32:39 RT @gillyarcht: There’s some very basic to-do list in here, now how do we possibly get everyone to listen to those people who are concerned…

2023-02-06 21:31:59 In the 1999 earthquake, I worked with rescue teams to pull from the rubble survivors we found using trained dogs and listening equipment. It's not easy to get to people. The agony of knowing people can call for help, but perish anyway because they can't be reached? Devastating.

2023-02-06 21:18:29 @RodrigueBiscuit @nataliesurely @smithsj @WilboBaggins95 I’d have respect if she picked an example where the key problem wasn’t that the desperate patients were being denied research, treatment and help exactly because of false beliefs that deny the role of the viral infection. This? It’s poorly done and harmful. And opposite of brave.

2023-02-06 21:15:44 A devastating part is survivors from under the rubble have been calling for help, but it’s not always possible to reach them. Sometimes, it’s led to rescues—to much joy. But often, people watch helplessly as they stop texting or tweeting, often after saying their goodbyes.

2023-02-06 21:12:27 @JustinMcAleer Many after, too. Hence the crisis.

2023-02-06 21:09:46 @VirusesImmunity @yoncabulutmd @ArditiMd @esenol @DeryaTR_ @emin_adin @ahbap @rabiagozden @TRConsuLA @atopeli @isil_arican @AkcanArikan @DeannaMarie208 Thank you.

2023-02-06 06:19:41 Preliminary USGS estimates. Note the scale is logarithmic. I wouldn’t be surprised if it nudged a bit more towards the worse end. Widespread destruction over a wide area with a shallow lateral slip. https://t.co/lwxPOGE13u https://t.co/hNABWlHAc5

2023-02-06 05:25:11 First visuals after sunrise. Massive destruction. https://t.co/LYRbYYoSFi

2023-02-06 04:07:58 I think likely eight cities are affected in Turkey— and very preliminary estimate but it looks like at least hundreds of buildings have collapsed. Sunrise in about half an hour, may get some aerial surveys than. It’s quite cold and the aftershocks were big.

2023-02-06 03:53:54 RT @matthew_pines: This looks very bad. Massive search and rescue needed asap. I suspect we’ll deploy our Tier 1 task forces, starting with…

2023-02-06 03:53:46 @elifgunce @matthew_pines @VATF1 Exactly.

2023-02-06 03:40:17 Also, thank you for the many kind inquiries. I don’t have close family and friends in the affected areas, and none that I know who’ve traveled there. Especially concerning news out of Northern Syria as well. That area is already decimated from the war.

2023-02-06 03:36:46 @BanGaoRen @iingwen @MOFA_Taiwan

2023-02-06 03:28:05 An expert estimating the length of the fault break. Populated cities all around the area. https://t.co/Z3tF1XDr0m

2023-02-06 03:26:51 @matthew_pines @VATF1 I hope they’re mobilizing!

2023-02-06 03:21:51 Sounds terrible. This is a region already devastated by war. Many in makeshift structures already. They will need urgent help as well, and under difficult international and national conditions given the conflict. https://t.co/RpDRJgMyxH

2023-02-06 03:17:40 Northern Syria, too, must be affected too, no? We may be getting less news from there. But the magnitude plus potential length of the fault line suggests impact there as well.

2023-02-06 03:14:49 So yes, Diyarbakir, too. The fault break could be covering a huge area. https://t.co/KttCv9WnUn

2023-02-06 03:10:24 I can’t confirm the locations but multiple pretty credible seeming photos of collapsed buildings as far away as Adana — that’s more than 200 km from the epicenter. The entire area is densely populated.

2023-02-06 02:53:49 Minister of interior confirming they will be asking for international rescue teams to convene — this is standard procedure for big earthquakes. Multiple high population density cities are affected by the M 7.8 one. https://t.co/CV6YtIJSI0

2023-02-06 02:46:29 Yeah this one is big. https://t.co/cdIAgcIQCv

2023-02-06 02:34:49 @fergusonbj

2023-02-06 02:34:43 Lacking complete clarity but the first quake appears to be in Kahramanmaraş (estimates are M 7.4 to 7.8) and then one or two more about 11 minutes later (M 6.4) in Gaziantep—about 55 miles south. Densely populated areas. The 1999 quake in Izmit was 7.6, estimated 18,000 dead.

2023-02-06 02:18:02 Area weather. Not good. Time is always of the essence with earthquake rescues. Especially with cold. Any rescue team would likely fly through Istanbul or Ankara. It’s not an area with direct flights. (Global rescue teams convening is standard—many countries have standby teams). https://t.co/btBWxTcppX

2023-02-06 02:04:55 Seeing photos of pancaked buildings from multiple cities from the major earthquake in Turkey. And widespread reports of people calling for help from under the rubble where they’re trapped. Almost certainly an event that will require mobilization from international rescue teams.

2023-02-06 01:58:02 Big earthquake in Southeast Turkey, populated area and at night—people will be caught asleep at home. Preliminary reports are M 7.8. Early photos already showed pancaked bulletin. #DEPREMOLDU is the hashtag. (Or #deprem). Almost certainly needs global rescue team mobilization. https://t.co/MD4vQ6IpTw

2023-02-05 16:47:12 "We didn't have an SF earthquake recently" isn't an argument that invalidates the San Andreas Fault. Pandemics have special features: 1-Some things make them more likely

2023-02-05 16:41:27 So H5N1 (and other avian flus) came up before and no pandemic. Exactly. We contained SARS in 2004, with much effort and luck. Then came SARS-CoV-2. We contained H5N1 and got lucky before. We now have the biggest outbreak AND first outbreak with mammal-to-mammal transmission. https://t.co/udWdPqYQxf

2023-02-05 16:21:25 @PeacockFlu @SCOTTeHENSLEY @thijskuiken Corrected! @SanderFMC pointed out my error. I don’t know what I was thinking. https://t.co/9MufI0WNKx

2023-02-05 16:19:42 That’s not all. The third expert quoted is Thijs Kuiken, an avian influenza expert in Netherlands. Seems Kuiken means chick, in Dutch. So yeah, drs Peacock, HENsley and Kuiken. I am afraid to learn whether professor Peter Palese has a middle name related to any of this. https://t.co/hs1zBBbcnl https://t.co/IfzWYHT6BZ

2023-02-05 16:15:43 @SanderFMC Ah sorry! Correcting! Thanks.

2023-02-05 16:06:37 @PeacockFlu @SCOTTeHENSLEY @thijskuiken https://t.co/pSv34QzwpS

2023-02-05 15:49:14 @JoeyOtweets I agree we should try for a global treaty. But there is no way to get started when major wealthy countries won’t even ban theirs. Plus risk reduction is risk reduction.

2023-02-05 15:28:58 US recently came very close to banning mink farms because they are pandemic virus breeding factories and cruel. Then Wisconsin Senators (one Republican, one Democrat) led the effort to block it, to protect the few farms in WI. Many Democrats joined them. https://t.co/v58YzATII2 https://t.co/OkDXMNiAM7

2023-02-05 15:13:11 There are people —even MDs!— trying to start “lockdowns were bad!” fights over H5N1. The point now is to avoid human outbreaks, not play Twitter clout games with unserious people. Meanwhile? Speedier vaccine production would need getting ready. Which do need money and attention. https://t.co/ojG7L7OT17

2023-02-05 14:20:48 A Spanish translation thread. https://t.co/iqwIiAc8BP

2023-02-05 14:11:35 RT @GaviSeth: .⁦@zeynep⁩ warns us of a potential new and more severe pandemic staring us right in the face. There are many things we could…

2023-02-05 14:04:25 @ShakeelHashim @ChanaMessinger @AFraserUrq “Single digit” chance of a global pandemic soonish seems catastrophically serious to me.

2023-02-05 02:11:57 RT @Bureli: "Mink farms must be shut down. It’s hard to imagine a better way to incubate and spread a deadly virus than letting it evolve a…

2023-02-04 23:46:14 @BrianRWasik It’s the opposite of panic. It’s prevention. Reduces panic.

2023-02-04 22:49:41 RT @sara_bee: I've known about the government chickens for a while but did not know how much I wanted to hear from their bodyguards until t…

2023-02-04 19:32:47 RT @arpitrage: Chicken and egg problem— vaccines against the bird flu require incubation of doses in eggs, but the bird flu itself is devas…

2023-02-04 18:37:26 @PawelRawicki Nuts

2023-02-04 18:31:24 From one of the experts I talked with for my piece. Mink farming is unethical and dangerous. (Minks are not rodents. They are carnivorous mammals and solitary hunters. Think cats, not mice. Keeping them in packed in crowded industrial facilities is especially cruel). https://t.co/MCHhKNAnYD

2023-02-04 16:32:17 RT @1t1sAdam: Great piece about why people are worried about H5N1. This part about the US stockpile of avian flu vaccines is crazy An Ev…

2023-02-04 15:10:28 RT @daniel_kraft: Bird Flu &

2023-02-04 14:03:05 UK-specific advice if encountering dead birds. But once again, the important thing here is for the world to act now, so that it’s not something ordinary people have to think about. We wait too long, that can change. https://t.co/HX1zlMDjfL

2023-02-04 14:01:18 @PawelRawicki

2023-02-04 14:00:36 Depending on country, there may be animal control to call? Long story why but yes this can spread by contact with dead animals but not likely from a brief encounter or just proximity. I’d still be cautious. Here’s what CDC recommends for poultry exposure. https://t.co/eH0iUJSHuQ https://t.co/hnSCQxRkqp

2023-02-04 13:52:55 I also don’t understand “don’t panic” messaging. Understanding a threat to act on it is the opposite of panic. That’s not the same as fear-mongering by exaggerating or misrepresenting. Also the way counter “panic” is plans and actions, not words.

2023-02-04 13:44:39 There are important steps to take now, not because it’s a threat to humans now (it’s not

2023-02-04 13:07:24 RT @tomgara: Covid had a low enough fatality rate that a lot of people, especially younger &

2023-02-04 12:20:41 RT @seeCFC: Another source on this story: https://t.co/2vxlcgS73c

2023-02-04 03:40:07 @BernardAFox @POTUS @CDCDirector @US_FDA @NIHDirector

2023-02-04 03:08:21 RT @ShakeelHashim: It seems like these things are probably worth the costs, given the potential risks here

2023-02-04 02:48:37 @smithsj @VersatiIeTwink @teri0n Agree. 0.5-1% isn’t that small at all. It’s a large population. Especially at pandemic scale. And the debilitating version is a very severe illness and likely related to some other key processes.

2023-02-04 01:14:15 RT @erikbryn: .@zeynep is right. By far the best and cheapest way to stop a pandemic is to act early, before it spreads widely.

2023-02-04 01:07:15 RT @kellymnyc: The H5N1 virus is infecting migratory birds, allowing it to spread more widely A mutant strain is now spreading among minks…

2023-02-04 00:38:07 @OmicronData Any specific questions? I’ve been reading and talking to a bunch of people in the trenches for a while.

2023-02-04 00:13:54 @DanielleFong

2023-02-04 00:10:56 The next potential hurricane doesn’t care if you’re mad at the previous weather reporter at the local TV channel. In this case, unlike weather, one could even stop it. Or one can keep yelling about how the last batch of weather reporters were annoying or incompetent or whatever. https://t.co/Nqx5bRaqLH

2023-02-04 00:07:13 @dr_kkjetelina @wanderer_jasnah It is noted at the end and I did carefully say among known cases, exactly for that reason. But couldn’t really get into even more details which would be too much hand waving. https://t.co/HPPR7o3Bdk

2023-02-03 23:08:40 RT @Holly_713: This is super important!!!The general population doesn’t need to do anything right now except not pick up dead animals, but…

2023-02-03 22:46:53 @pekikimkibu I'm awaiting better public health guidance on this. We know cats be infected (there is a case in France) but it is yet, rare, and transmission back to humans from cats is also very, very rare, that we know of. The people I spoke with weren't at the stage of cat-specific recs.

2023-02-03 22:26:38 @mikewwilson3 The illustration is about the “naked” threat profile. Wuhan had little to nothing but still exponentially increased threat by age. But yes, wouldn't necessarily be identical.

2023-02-03 22:23:41 Not that much for the public to do right now. (Don’t pick up dead birds or animals!). But there is much to do now, before it’s too late, by the authorities to try to keep it that way. Best defense is preventing a human outbreak from happening, or greatly lowering the odds. https://t.co/gn1uquRZ1I

2023-02-03 21:59:37 RT @anthonymacuk: Seems bad https://t.co/FwTLp2WrGR

2023-02-03 21:19:40 @Harry1T6 You've never written much of anything I wrote, I suppose? I'm not lacking for topics or readership. This one is a terrible topic to write about, and I'm writing it now so, hopefully, I don't have to keep writing about it because it's not a thing.

2023-02-03 21:17:31 @LucreSnooker @tomgara It's quite unlikely anyone would be re-litigating mask RCTs — that's the luxury people have after three years, vaccines, population immunity, and a CFR that started out at about 1.4% without any treatments or vaccines (tragic for the victims, for sure) and exponential with age.

2023-02-03 21:07:50 Age/death curve from Kentucky for 1918 flu pandemic, which killed more people than WWI. Like Covid, increased deaths among the elderly, a tragedy. Do note the bump among the young and the spike for children. Why not prevent an H5N1 outbreak into humans? https://t.co/4ZQ1vkFa0c https://t.co/yAtCvvrXEj

2023-02-03 20:55:01 @tomgara Yep. A bunch of people want to argue about masks with me. This has little to no connection to masks for the public at the moment, on what needs to be done to stop it, but if it does breakthrough, that is so not what we’re going to be “worrying” about.

2023-02-03 20:49:16 @phealthsean I think it'd quickly do what a for-real measles outbreak does to an antivaxx group that was free-riding on the herd-immunity in the population. I've bunch of people who want to argue masks or vaccines or beach closures with me about this. It's.. not COVID. Not gonna go like that.

2023-02-03 20:36:04 @works2late It's a bit like hurricanes, or maybe earthquakes. A mix? There are some signals, but it's hard to predict exactly. But when it happens, it can be really, really bad. And we have big influenza pandemics at least about a century. Last one in 1918 killed more than world war i.

2023-02-02 16:50:03 RT @HelenBranswell: 1. Finally a vaccine effectiveness estimate for this season's #flu shot — from Canada. Canadian researchers estimated…

2023-02-02 13:40:55 The news here should be for large numbers of people Long Covid doesn’t resolve even after many years, and affects them a lot. The fact that our measures pick up some transient stuff is true, but that’s not where the deep crisis is occurring. Suggest looking at that subset at ONS.

2023-02-02 13:38:23 Good that self-reported Long Covid population continues to decrease despite sizable waves of new infections and reinfections. More evidence that surveys also detect some transient symptoms. But, crucially, a sizable number of people are debilitated—many for years. They’re stuck.

2023-02-02 13:34:30 UK ONS latest on Long Covid. Good: Total numbers of people self-reporting Long Covid continue to decrease. Bad: Little change for the subset of people who’ve had LC for a long time and are affected a lot. Con: no control group. Pro: great sampling, longitudunal, asks severity. https://t.co/wjPDTBhIun

2023-02-01 20:47:25 RT @MackayIM: "But I haven’t seen anything in our data or other studies that makes me worried about long-term impacts on immunity to other…

2023-02-01 13:17:01 Immunologist @EJohnWherry “We’re not seeing evidence this one virus has changed our immune system’s ability to keep us healthy.. not seeing the kinds of things.. where the immune system was compromised, or dysregulated, because of an infectious disease”. https://t.co/NephdaTKrC https://t.co/9NYNVXTcmj

2023-02-01 03:51:23 @bigdbaggino That’s the method.

2023-02-01 03:29:54 RT @SaladBarFan: Good thread debunking a lot of sensationalist views on covid:

2023-02-01 02:26:05 @smithsj https://t.co/nctjIaqFju

2023-01-31 22:29:03 @SurpriseSparrow Huh??? Where do you get that? Different topic. It's a well-known aspect of electronic health record studies that people get diagnoses of pre-existing illnesses — say, high blood pressure — during medical interactions. It's not about Long Covid. See here. https://t.co/jNezDRh6va

2023-01-31 22:25:01 @ShaneyWright But also, talking to clinicians who see a lot of Long Covid, and some of whom also see ME/CFS, it seems that they have subtypes in their heads, and I've seen inter-coder reliability *among* clinicians who work from symptoms. At a minimum, that could be checked against biomarkers.

2023-01-31 22:23:27 @ShaneyWright What gets defined as Long Covid clearly has multiple phenotypes. Post-ICU/severity sequelae

2023-01-31 22:19:57 Preprints aren't perfect. Fine. Science doesn't stop with a single published article. Experts within the field *follow* developments—replications, confirmations, negations. Pseudoscience posts old snippets over and over —they don't know the latest, or don't want you to know.

2023-01-31 22:13:44 Caveat about the preprint. It's an association, not causal. Also focuses on relative risk. As authors note, preexisting illnesses get diagnosed *because* people interact with doctors. Plus relative risk needs baseline and subgroup data, will likely be asked during peer review. https://t.co/AvZqWoqArw

2023-01-31 22:05:18 Multiple top immunologists doing research on these very topics (It's the Biggest Topic!) are all making the same points—despite different policy views, and whatever *within-science* debates are going on— along with research into complex, less-understood questions like Long Covid.

2023-01-31 22:00:47 So @timrequarth has a great, nuanced overview, with explanations from multiple top immunologists. @profshanecrotty : "I haven’t seen anything in our data or other studies that makes me worried about long-term impacts on immunity to other infections." https://t.co/ObIZ7UUY6l https://t.co/rNOSoQpX4a

2023-01-31 19:06:45 RT @Laura52872w: During yesterday's discussion, I mentioned someome got IRB approval to study one of the non-traditional microbiome-related…

2023-01-31 18:37:45 @ShaneyWright Ampligen. That appears to have been a big problem for that trial. Big potential loss to patients. Key reason I keep trying to advocate for better sub-phenotype definitions of LC rather than this current too broad umbrella—something clinicians already do! This is bad for patients.

2023-01-31 18:34:12 @YaleSPH @meganranney Wow! Congratulations!

2023-01-31 17:34:58 @natashaloder @nytimes

2023-01-30 23:12:12 @cjmaddison @Todd_Friesen @RoseEdmunds @wanderer_jasnah Otoh, mundane sequelae that we see for other respiratory illnesses that resolve, likely resolve for this too. But in my opinion, everyone in the ME/CFS type category is now a patient even if symptoms go away. Hopefully they stay away, but I would classify it as "in remission."

2023-01-30 23:10:05 @cjmaddison @Todd_Friesen @RoseEdmunds @wanderer_jasnah Phenotyping of the LC umbrella is really imprecise, lumping post-ICU syndrome with ME/CFS like presentation but imo, even the mildest or resolved version of ME/CFS category should be treated as a serious illness in danger of worsening or relapse, because we know that from ME/CFS.

2023-01-30 23:08:17 @cjmaddison @Todd_Friesen @RoseEdmunds @wanderer_jasnah Also missing from ONS is something that comes up: prevaccine infection ->

2023-01-30 22:36:12 @cjmaddison @Todd_Friesen @RoseEdmunds @wanderer_jasnah Also ONS tracks length of being affected, and hospitalization. In combination, that’s a solid infection. Shortcomings is no control group but sampling is excellent and there’s underdiagnosis, too. And it’s still a very large number! Small % of a huge number is still large.

2023-01-30 20:44:48 RT @VirusesImmunity: We are looking for people who never had COVID or who recovered from COVID as important control participants in our Yal…

2023-01-30 19:53:25 RT @IEthics: #ethics #internet #socialmedia #Twitter

2023-01-30 18:59:19 @DonEford @smithsj @Marc_Veld Wait, you're unblocked? Aren't you the actor — Brandon Nelson was it?— who claims to have solved Long Covid and managed the Bernie Sanders and, dunno, invented a perpetual motion machine? That is indeed damaging to my "brand". My apologies. Blocking again. Sorry about that.

2023-01-30 18:07:16 RT @ElizHagedorn: Asked about #Egypt's political prisoners including Alaa Abdel Fattah, Mohamed El-Baqer, and Mohamed "Oxygen" Ibrahim, @Se…

2023-01-30 12:45:59 @BogDr @smithsj A bit unfair. Many departments have deadwood faculty, they don’t all do stuff like this. They contribute positively otherwise and at least learn stuff. In contrast, it takes effort to avoid learning difference between adaptive and innate immunity after years of pandemic tweeting.

2023-01-30 12:38:01 @oliver_phil @smithsj @Marc_Veld I hope you take notes of this very very obvious warming sign as well. Repeatedly posting snippets from a single paper from more than a year ago isn’t how a scientific field operates. Established, important findings have multiple papers and advances. Have a good day! https://t.co/uF8tTxBKfu

2023-01-30 12:28:38 @oliver_phil @smithsj @Marc_Veld Thank you for asking. It’s smart to rely on actual immunologists in the field for such questions, rather than the people with too much free time on their hands and spewing out jargon salad on Twitter. Here you go, Marc explains here. Nice of him to do this as he has an actual job https://t.co/ToXpxUduK3

2023-01-30 04:51:58 @smithsj @loscharlos @cjmaddison @NIH Pretty sure I know it from before but it may have been around for a long time!

2023-01-30 03:59:51 RT @CorsIAQ: "An Engineering Perspective on the Secret Lives of Airborne Viruses" Really looking forward to @linseymarr's visit as one of…

2023-01-30 03:04:49 @AltenbergLee @macroliter @PhilippMarkolin No clue but wow. At least read the paper and try to understand what it’s saying before paying to promote a tweet describing it so incorrectly as some sort of goal on alleged minimizers. Paper is explaining why kids are spared severe outcomes compared to adults!

2023-01-30 02:08:17 RT @JChengWSJ: @jamestareddy In August, as his wife was on a trip to Shanghai, authorities told her they want Mr. Yu to return to China for…

2023-01-30 02:03:44 @macroliter @PhilippMarkolin Seriously??? Wow

2023-01-30 01:59:53 @walidgellad This is so frustrating, for its impacts on Long Covid patients. This shouldn’t pass an undergrad survey methods class. And yet…

2023-01-30 01:05:57 @selise @Marc_Veld @macroliter https://t.co/kw4avVUhzZ

2023-01-30 01:00:00 CAFIAC FIX

2023-01-24 04:10:46 RT @rolandlisf: Twitter sued by landlord at SF HQ after alleged nonpayment of $6.8 million in rent: https://t.co/i823gBIf6R The company was…

2023-01-24 03:57:47 RT @RadioFreeTom: "In short: after cutting back on servers and entire data centers, Twitter can no longer keep up with its own content."

2023-01-24 03:55:05 @SaadOmer3 @nytimes Alas.

2023-01-24 01:04:23 RT @emilybell: Good thread … and by good I mean bad. Local officials increasingly co-opting their own media or avoiding independent journal…

2023-01-24 01:02:14 @wanderer_jasnah What on earth makes you think this is "public health comms"??? It's year three, and Twitter now has a dwindling group being competed over by these accounts, hence the accelerating nonsense. (Biggest tragedy here is there are LC patients being preyed on as part of this dynamic).

2023-01-24 00:38:15 RT @PGTimmune: Tl

2023-01-23 23:29:07 @OC4RC @andrew_croxford Yes he is explaining what it *actually means.* Which is not at all what gets presented on Twitter. Certainly not something you’re going to make an argument by screenshotting titles. Best of luck!

2023-01-23 23:20:01 RT @MackayIM: Covid is not destroying kids immune systems, by @apsmunro https://t.co/kwb455Bz5r

2023-01-23 22:45:54 Also this is unfortunate. Many immunocompromised people are under-vaccinated. There is a myth out there the vaccine doesn’t benefit them. That’s simply not true. Almost all of them benefit, but may need extra doses than others for more robust protection. https://t.co/I5Li4w8P9B https://t.co/gWybJoiTt1

2023-01-23 22:37:26 @BrianRWasik It’s more fun to make up stuff, especially without having published a single thing relevant to it or doing any research or having anyone else in the field agree and backup the claims.

2023-01-23 22:34:54 @OC4RC @andrew_croxford I’m sorry you’ve been lied to so much. Best of luck.

2023-01-23 22:34:33 @OC4RC @andrew_croxford No, it’s about people who don’t understand the topic having been lied to by others, and then them trying to prove stuff to an actual immunologist by using screenshots of.. *titles.* Here’s one of the actual co-authors of the study YOU cite trying to correct the nonsense claims. https://t.co/FDNIEn2G3D

2023-01-23 21:30:01 RT @JohnWoodrowCox: A reminder that @drewharwell and several other journalists have been suspended from this platform for more than a month…

2023-01-23 17:35:36 @3dPartyInternet @md_wallach @andrew_croxford Chekc actual polls, the ones that are random/representative. There is a dramatic change in what people worry about and how they behave. Even what they read in regular papers. Also, especially after Musk, Twitter has become even weirder and definitely less representative.

2023-01-23 16:06:12 And obviously, infrastructure improvements — to how healthcare is practiced, paid sick leave, to testing, to indoor air quality, etc. — aren't easy but there is so much upside to it. https://t.co/yJyR8pucuA

2023-01-23 16:02:52 Sure, the kind of stuff people who lie on social media for attention/ego predicted about immunity, severity etc. obviously didn't happen (wasn't going to). The opposite isn't complete complacency. These illnesses take a real toll, and most of that falls on the more vulnerable.

2023-01-23 16:00:03 @md_wallach @andrew_croxford The backpedaling started already. The ones not completely unmoored from reality but rode wave to attention will start acting to self-preserve. The ones with no other outlet (no regular academic/research job) but lying on social media will go the antivax grift model, is my guess.

2023-01-23 15:56:25 As the hospital chief notes here, flu, RSV and Covid are all sharply down —the first two had earlier than usual waves and COVID had a smaller uptick before declining. But it's still Winter. Flu sometimes has a second wave, so not too late for vaccination. https://t.co/iIm2mqVRLF https://t.co/CqPzFREhwS

2023-01-23 15:41:40 @andrew_croxford Eventually, the reckoning becomes inevitable. Barring a major change, I predict a shift to newsletters/private accounts for the ones who were outright charlatans/hacks and many with regular jobs/appointments who got carried away will just go back to that life and backpedal.

2023-01-23 15:39:58 @andrew_croxford There are sociology studies on this phenomenon, most famous one is called "When Prophesy Fails"—when a group gets convinced something is imminent, and it keeps not happening. How does the group cope/continue? At first, they ignore evidence. Double down. (As they're trying now).

2023-01-23 00:00:01 Cafiac fix

2023-01-17 00:24:51 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 Once again, they’re moving on. They. Don’t. Care. And no outside pressure on them to care enough to do what’s necessary. Waiting for that to happen is a bad idea. This is the terrible reality. In my view, saying anything else is good for Twitter now but very bad for the long run.

2023-01-17 00:22:40 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 I clearly say *millions of people* in the interview. It’s not misunderstood there. Small % can be a huge in real numbers. Only by a few on Twitter does that get portrayed as minimizing when, in fact, nobody was bringing up the topic at all till I did—common in my experience.

2023-01-16 23:59:20 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 Ah come on read what I wrote. That’s exactly what I explained in the piece. The patients are too ill to protest, and go birddog politicians and break into the FDA and turnover tables like the HIV victims did before AIDS set in. So yes, exactly. That’s what I’m saying.

2023-01-16 23:57:16 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 Yes. I wrote exactly that in the NYT. A small % of a very large number is a large, substantial number. Take the ONS stats and explain how substantial a number that is would be a smart strategy. It’s millions of people, many sick of years already, potentially with lifelong illness https://t.co/85L6UnN0JK

2023-01-16 23:52:24 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 Congress. Doesn’t. Care. NIH and CDC may repeat some of the numbers but they’re not acting at all like they believe any of it. At all. Chronic illness is ignored anyway. That billion is almost gone, with little to show, and there is no new money. Few care. THAT is the problem.

2023-01-16 23:49:34 @Illusionist999 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 I traveled to attend the one protest they did, and followed up with people with weeks afterwards to document their plight and PEM/crash &

2023-01-16 23:43:56 @Mormolykeia @IppokratisAnge1 @GregDore2 ONS has length of time and severity as well as self-reported symptoms. It’s not the ideal dataset, lacking control, but it’s the best one we have equipped to catch cases exactly like yours exactly because of the sampling method. Many other studies would miss cases like yours.

2023-01-16 23:02:18 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 If they actually behaved like they believed those numbers, and if the magnitude of the impact bore it out, nobody would care what I thought about any of this. I was yelling in February 2020 that a pandemic was coming and we needed to act and got similarly shouted at. So it goes.

2023-01-16 23:00:19 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 The NIH or CDC may repeat numbers like 10% or “one in five” that I criticized, based on actual careful reading of the studies and comparing them to better ones like the ONS &

2023-01-16 22:54:34 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 There is almost no money in next year’s budget for Long Covid. That billion is almost all gone with, yet, a single Paxlovid trial starting *just recently.* That’s it. Despite occasional good media articles, the attention isn’t there. This isn’t good. Needs a huge, focused push.

2023-01-16 22:51:02 @vijayiyer312 @IppokratisAnge1 Also despite the disproportionate attention this topic gets on Twitter, I do, of course, focus on the toll and the urgent needs. I was invited to do Stewart podcast to talk about *other* things. I just bring up Long Covid myself because otherwise it goes completely unmentioned.

2023-01-16 21:30:37 RT @houseofsnarks: look what elon deleted today. precious.

2023-01-16 17:42:58 RT @t0nyyates: wtaf.

2023-01-16 17:39:10 @IppokratisAnge1 @AlexGaggio @GregDore2 Folks. This part seems.. not the best use of anyone’s energy? Feel free to untag me.

2023-01-16 17:37:41 @reflectfirst @mlipsitch @DocJeffD @CarlosdelRio7 @EricTopol @DeptVetAffairs @NatureMedicine @zalaly @walidgellad Here’s the direct part from their paper. Media hasn’t been doing well describing this study. Not an uncommon problem. https://t.co/nZ6PwXcarV

2023-01-16 16:47:27 @KrauthBen @macroliter @MichaelSFuhrer From the paper itself. https://t.co/dO9PKZNG30 See upthread for more about generalizability &

2023-01-16 16:14:47 RT @MarkELindsay: Every time I think these people are terrible @zeynep shows up and points out they are so much worse than you thought

2023-01-16 15:58:58 From today. So, so subtle. https://t.co/h2XHiNrs6r https://t.co/uI3TeeaWT7

2023-01-16 15:27:27 @IppokratisAnge1 @LongCovidComms @GregDore2 I do exactly that, when I write/speak. When it comes up, I do say, but with little focus, that existing numbers conflate multiple things, but that’s *all* some Twitter folks focus on. Twitter exaggration. See gift links below to what I *actually* write. https://t.co/wMyWPz7O5Z https://t.co/0Xj78r7wtW

2023-01-16 14:44:42 @LongCovidComms @IppokratisAnge1 @GregDore2 100%. That’s why this is so perplexing. ONS numbers, as ballpark —yes self-reported and no control group but likely missing some because of underdiagnosis— ARE HUGE. The realistic, best numbers we have are staggeringly high. Why make unrealistic claims by conflating minor stuff?

2023-01-16 00:20:13 @md_wallach @MarkELindsay If we got a true severity escape variant, shudder, or these H5N1 jumps to mammals one should keep an eye on, we probably couldn’t convince most people to pay any attention precautionarily. Who has credibility left? Long Covid patients are especially preyed on here. It sucks.

2023-01-16 00:17:17 @md_wallach @MarkELindsay Yes, exactly. They’re flat out lying in ways that wouldn’t, and do not, fly outside of Twitter but sometimes snare some gullible journalists. It’s not sophisticated lying. It’s not nuances of advanced science. It’s flat out bullshit. It makes sane people tune out the topic.

2023-01-16 00:02:44 @MarkELindsay And this too. These are very pro-mitigation immunologists. Unlike the charlatans, though, they are scientists first. They’re not gonna make up stuff to gain Twitter followers. https://t.co/dOx0Cecjqs

2023-01-16 00:00:31 @MarkELindsay And they keep lying about this one study in Nature, about eight months of immune dysregulation. The actual co-author of that study goes on Twitter to try to correct them. No go. The charlatans *still* use the study to mislead people who don’t understand what it actually says. https://t.co/FDNIEn2G3D

2023-01-15 23:57:36 @MarkELindsay Also see. https://t.co/JyZydJtnuh

2023-01-15 23:42:29 RT @SergioEfe: Este no es un tema inmunológico. Como tantos otros es sociológico y psicológico.

2023-01-15 23:42:10 @MarkELindsay The worst part is that these charlatans are misleading patients—and what Twitter followers they’ve acquired—and their enablers don’t seem to care. I lost a lot of respect for people who should’ve known better. We know what scientific disagreement looks like vs pseudoscience.

2023-01-15 23:39:41 @MarkELindsay It’s incredible really. Same thing happened when the Zero Covid friendly Indie Sage immunologists essentially said the same thing: “Never really seen evidence for covid infection knocking down your T-cells in any kind of ongoing way.. [Not a thing] unless very severely infected."

2023-01-15 23:37:21 @MarkELindsay Yep. One of world’s actual top T cell experts, now doing deep immunological study of Long Covid patients, shows up to say “no evidence whatsoever of any T cell depletion” and gets harassed—led by dude whose only “proof” is repeatedly tweeting “I was right” to a gullible audience.

2023-01-15 22:04:09 RT @zeynep: @LastGreatAct @PChildermass @sciencecohen @SetteLab Altmann, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage in UK, is a T cell immunolo…

2023-01-15 21:20:03 @DannyFischer35 @md_wallach @MarkELindsay Even the scientist who figured out how HIV infects T cells got harassed for talking about his ongoing research! I How much more of an actual T cell expert you could be in the real world? Got harassed by the Twitter rando whose only proof is constantly tweeting “he was right”. https://t.co/HIUueylAzK

2023-01-15 21:13:42 @DannyFischer35 @md_wallach @MarkELindsay https://t.co/OiiA67YJ49

2023-01-15 19:58:23 RT @zeynep: @TactNowInfo @unbiasedscipod @melissa_zegar Here’s the *actual coauthor* of that study, trying to stop the nonsense.

2023-01-15 19:57:59 @TactNowInfo @unbiasedscipod @melissa_zegar Here’s the *actual coauthor* of that study, trying to stop the nonsense. https://t.co/FDNIEn2G3D

2023-01-15 19:47:36 RT @MarkELindsay: The replies here

2023-01-15 19:41:15 @md_wallach @MarkELindsay It’s more a sociological issue. The same people reacted badly even when multiple immunologists associated with UK’s Indie Sage, which is as far away from “minimizer” as it gets, basically said the same thing. There are people preying on people by lying to them. They push it.

2023-01-15 01:02:30 @swastrosarah Of course. The topic was vaccines, myocarditis, side effects, communication, etc. but I couldn’t let the episode happen without bringing up Long Covid and ME patients so I just pivoted. I think we need celebrities to do what Jon did for firefighters after 9/11 — push Congress.

2023-01-15 01:00:09 RT @swastrosarah: "these ppl are so sick, so severely sick, THEY CAN'T PROTEST" #LongCovid is #ME Thanks Adam, always &

2023-01-14 15:13:30 RT @GYamey: It has been *very* instructive seeing who Elon Musk calls on to write his “Twitter Files” series—&

2023-01-14 14:14:01 @johndowe49

2023-01-13 03:00:41 RT @Dakota_150: 'The Problem With Jon Stewart' Podcast 32:40, Zeynep Tufekci: "...the tragedy of the Long COVID patients who are still lef…

2023-01-13 03:00:26 @MayaLindemannRN @Dakota_150 @jonstewart @TheProblem @exceedhergrasp1 I hope so too.

2023-01-12 23:35:14 Incorrect takeaway would be saying "Long Covid patients, see, you'll mostly recover" TO CURRENT PATIENTS because we know substantial numbers aren't recovering. This study says most with mild illness from the first year are fine. That's good, but doesn't help the ones who aren't.

2023-01-12 23:26:18 @GenrokuRyoran Yes, check the table there. The vaccinated follow up time is very short, and the cohort is small (hence why they don't say much about it in the paper and put a few tables in the supplement). Will wait for them to follow up and then we should have a better idea.

2023-01-12 23:18:31 This study has advantages—lengthy follow up and good attempt to compensate for biases of electronic health records. But the measures aren't very specific for debilitating LC (few studies look at that) and, again, it's not studying a LC cohort. Just *all* people with mild cases.

2023-01-12 23:08:05 What we measure broadly as "Long Covid" has sub types. Persistent smell disorders as sole symptom seems common, as well as regular post-viral syndromes that resolve. But there's also debilitating versions, even after mild cases and also post-ICU type cases after hospitalization.

2023-01-12 23:05:59 I saw people wondering why this study did not ask about fatigue. It does! It's just called "weakness". It's the second most common symptom. Again, most people with mild Covid recover fully is great, but isn't the same as most people with chronic Long Covid recover from that. https://t.co/oaPtzl3TlV

2023-01-12 23:02:00 New Long Covid study. Unvaccinated people "with mild covid-19 had an increased risk for a small number of health outcomes, most of which resolved within a year." Pro: Lengthy, large study. Solid. Note: Doesn't mean people who *do* develop chronic LC recover. LC has subtypes. https://t.co/l3nUvQWumA

2023-01-12 19:45:12 RT @chrischirp: Axing the ONS infection survey would be a MASSIVE mistake. Instead of cutting it we should be EXPANDING it - we have an op…

2023-01-12 19:06:59 This is good news, as influenza is also sharply down. However, in some seasons influenza has a second peak in spring. This year’s flu strain has a history of being more severe but this year’s vaccine is a great match to the circulating strain! Not too late to get the vaccine! https://t.co/nisaa5RZhS

2023-01-12 14:18:39 RT @zeynep: I can confirm that this is the gofundme organized by his current and past colleagues. The proceeds will go to his family. Our t…

2023-01-12 01:29:44 I can confirm that this is the gofundme organized by his current and past colleagues. The proceeds will go to his family. Our thoughts are with them. https://t.co/BYxRloLkok

2023-01-12 01:25:48 Soon after their first child was born, Blake and his wife came to a dinner. To help, I held the newborn and.. explained the central limit theorem. As one does. Result: peaceful sleep. Sad to be now raising funds for their two kids, whom he loved so much. https://t.co/BYxRloLkok https://t.co/RLpzbXmbWe

2023-01-11 13:38:34 RT @GYamey: It has been *very* instructive seeing who Elon Musk calls on to write his “Twitter Files” series—&

2023-01-10 23:11:20 @WergildBlake @zengreaser @TaylorLorenz @smithsj @robbysoave See a thread, from a very real leafing expert on functional disorders! She’s not even a post-viral infectious disease expert and look how much she has to say. Instead of addressing any of this, let’s lean on Lorenz as a “hysteric” as the critic? Weak sauce. https://t.co/RuvpgnhNZ7

2023-01-10 23:05:25 @WergildBlake @zengreaser @TaylorLorenz @smithsj @robbysoave Yes and yes.

2023-01-10 20:35:37 This is heartbreaking. My thoughts are with Blake's family. I've known him since Arab Spring. He was always nice, hard-working and considerate. But work aside, he was so happy to be a father and loved his children so much. I can't imagine how devastating this is for them. https://t.co/b56Gbl9HR8

2023-01-10 19:53:48 RT @benryanwriter: Exaggerating the threat of infectious disease has real-world harms. I got DMs all summer from parents terrified that the…

2023-01-10 18:50:55 RT @GYamey: It has been *very* instructive seeing who Elon Musk calls on to write his “Twitter Files” series—&

2023-01-10 16:36:31 Also for the idiots. Scott was among the first to highlight infection-based immunity. He just *correctly* argued vaccines were the safer way to acquire immunity. He was also wary of vaccine mandates. Inciting the loons is all this is. There is no “criticism” here. https://t.co/GKbz8szwz3

2023-01-10 15:27:49 And to the people who still think all this may be imperfect but brings accountability or balance: All Musk is doing is destroy any semblance of accountability. Unleash the loons in the stupidest manner possible is all you'll get. And no sane person will step up in the future.

2023-01-10 14:31:45 By coincidence, I ended up being among the last few tweets of a few people Musk put on crosshairs. So I get some of their mentions. The stuff they’re getting is vile beyond imagination and dangerous. Inciting the loons like this has predictable potential consequences.

2023-01-10 14:25:55 We aren’t getting transparency. Or accountability. This is all a pathetic attempt to target individuals in a reckless, dangerous and uninformative manner while pushing the stupidest theories about institutions and people. Anyway it’s now down to pandemic’s worst grifters.

2023-01-10 14:22:09 “He made money being on the board.” Yes. That’s why I was so wary. After ~three years though, I’m glad he stepped up publicly. And what Musk’s doing isn’t some critical examination. It’s trying to get people harmed by having pathetic grifters paint a target on them, one by one.

2023-01-10 14:15:38 It’s absolutely true he has a (disclosed) conflict of interest. People should take that into account. This is my impression. It was a surprise for me. He went on business/conservative media and made sensible, informative, fair comments for almost three years now. Very valuable.

2023-01-10 14:09:54 It’s true Scott is on Pfizer’s board and ex head of FDA. I was *very* wary. I didn’t expect to find him to be so informative and balanced. But he was. Among first to advocate for masks. Balanced on vaccines. Musk has him personally targeted by one of Pandemic’s worst grifters. https://t.co/Nn3sVg2p1y

2023-01-10 01:59:47 @smithsj @robbysoave Also Lorenz as easy target is lazy and shows they know they don’t have a leg to stand on. Why not me? Why not the many, many scientists who are conducting actual research? Why not a few informed patients? Just lean into Twitter personality fights and call it a day. Embarrassing.

2023-01-10 01:57:42 @smithsj @robbysoave Incredible. Hysteria? 2023. I would’ve been happy to put the hosts in touch with some of the world’s most advanced neurologists and scientists from top universities. Skepticism is fine, especially since the evidence base is strong once people do the work, but this is ridiculous.

2023-01-10 01:55:01 RT @smithsj: It’s amazing how stupid @robbysoave comes off here. “The disease component of the disease”? The half-remembered anecdotes from…

2023-01-09 23:15:12 @nickjudin Well, I’m glad to hear my work was useful!

2023-01-09 23:12:51 @LongCovidComms @ENirenberg @NIH Exactly this. There is no solution until the medical/scientific community steps up. The desperate patients are easy prey for these charlatans. Worse a few of the frauds have PhDs and are MDs, though no real research or patient experience, just like the antivax grifters.

2023-01-09 22:47:33 @nickjudin What's also weird is the same media that was so late to understanding a pandemic was on its way and wasn't going to be over in two weeks (winter/spring 2020 was very frustrating) is now falling for opposite nonsense. Alas... Not many minds are being changed at all, anymore.

2023-01-09 22:38:02 RT @phealthsean: More from an expert who actually works on this stuff (unlike Eric):

2023-01-09 22:37:28 RT @phealthsean: This is a ridiculous conspiracy theory started by Eric Feigl Ding. There is no coverup, and the data has always been publi…

2023-01-09 22:33:04 @nickjudin It still lives on Twitter widely—was just responding to someone about it. It's like the nonsensical viral article claiming that everyone was going to get Omicron every two weeks (obviously no). That faction of nonsense purveyors helped destroy credibility of non-official sources.

2023-01-09 22:31:30 @nickjudin Yep. That incorrect claim was widespread and, besides clearly wrong, it was easy to understand why so wrong by anyone observing the world and five minutes with some basic epi data, a napkin and 2nd grade math. This environment is partly why most people have completely tuned out.

2023-01-09 22:24:34 @spatt786 There's little evidence the virus is "weakening" per se — to people without any immunity, Omicron was fairly dangerous, as we saw in Hong Kong where they went from Zero Covid to an epidemic with many unvaccinated, uninfected elderly. Immunity, though, is reducing average risks.

2023-01-09 22:22:18 @nickjudin Yes, there is no other result possible, in my estimation. People who get sick more have worse health outcomes compared to people who do not get sick more. I can't imagine a different finding? (This study doesn't compare reinfection vs first infection).

2023-01-09 22:17:51 @AllyBrownSIPHER @drclairetaylor @LauraSteckley @Wikisteff So that headline "impact of reinfections" (whoever made that?) is incorrect and misleading. On the other hand, we have systematic studies from multiple countries that demonstrate, conclusively, as immunologists long told us, reinfections are milder to asymptomatic on average.

2023-01-09 22:16:13 @AllyBrownSIPHER @drclairetaylor @LauraSteckley @Wikisteff Yeah that's misleading. The paper *explicitly* does not compare reinfections to initial infections, and arrives at no other conclusion than that people who got sick more had worse outcomes than people who happen to get sick less—which is obviously true for all illnesses.

2023-01-09 19:42:29 @sheencr @kimisgubbed @Daltmann10 @IndependentSage I'm sorry to hear that. Has happened to too many immunologists, unfortunately.

2023-01-09 17:51:49 @CounsellingSam Thanks. I do try to get to questions, but some are very hard to answer on Twitter because of the way the medium works. I will, absolutely, keep writing about post-viral illness and why and how the patients need much more consideration, support and research. It's truly important.

2023-01-09 17:50:28 @DrSimonAshworth Besides contributing to the timing of wave, I think the pandemic created additional pressures on already stretched-thin hospitals: a lot more medical people are burnt out after three years, and now, unfortunately, one more respiratory illness on a system with little slack. Alas.

2023-01-09 17:48:32 @DrSimonAshworth Recent paper on that, essentially showing the relationship between susceptible pile-ups, waves and vaccines. In addition, this year's flu is H3N2—it is a more severe strain, something repeatedly shown from pre-pandemic waves. 2017-2018 too, it sucked. https://t.co/3iehG4dRr2

2023-01-09 17:42:04 @PatrickHeizer Ah, thanks. Will check. It’s incredible how much Twitter-only nonsense there is because of misrepresentation of a few papers by persistent echo-chambers. Even the actual authors of the papers cannot convince people about the *actual* results or what they mean in the real world!

2023-01-09 16:17:15 @CounsellingSam @stooplites This topic isn't about Long Covid. Clearly no widespread immunodeficiency due to COVID like with HIV—we'd see an explosion in, say, Kaposi's Sarcoma, not just viral epidemics (that ebb). That said, post-viral sequelae are very real—I've written multiple articles. Different topic.

2023-01-09 16:12:59 @CounsellingSam @stooplites Here's the second one. (It's true I'm not always on Twitter — seems like such national/international high-profile articles is a better use of my time, and such research, of course, takes time). Have a good day! https://t.co/S9lSYchQF9

2023-01-09 16:10:19 @CounsellingSam @stooplites First, obviously, this isn't about Long Covid, but since you asked. I wrote two full-page articles in the New York Times about Long Covid, which, of course, involved talking to many with the illness but also clinicians and scientists. See thread for one. https://t.co/9pG3Q9vG28

2023-01-09 15:53:21 @stooplites Twitter-only phenomenon but a few journalists fall for it here and there. It’s interesting sociologically! Actual immunologists across policy preferences keep refuting it, as it’s obviously false, but they keep getting harassed and they leave Twitter or avoid the nonsense!

2023-01-09 00:47:00 @kimisgubbed @Daltmann10 @sheencr @IndependentSage Check all the immunologists — a range of policy views — who RT’ed this, for example. Many have been harassed a lot though for stating basic facts and straightforward findings. (That’s how Twitter liars keep the con going—harass the actual scientists and anyone telling the truth). https://t.co/FkpjKLZy6R

2023-01-09 00:42:16 @kimisgubbed @Daltmann10 @sheencr @IndependentSage Here’s a few you could follow. Check where people work (or who doesn’t do any research but makes up stuff on Twitter), where they publish, if they get cited—or whether they had to block most of the actual field after being called out for misrepresenting papers again &

2023-01-09 00:39:36 @kimisgubbed @Daltmann10 @sheencr @IndependentSage Not just Prof. Altman. I asked a range of top immunologists. Here’s one of world’s top T cell experts on Long Covid subset. (Prof. Unutmaz figured out how HIV infects T cells.) Twitter-only conspiracies aside: No big rise in opportunistic infections. Lab studies consistent, too. https://t.co/SFwPskZvXp

2023-01-08 22:45:12 RT @peterbakernyt: US military initially said it had "no indications" of civilian deaths in drone strike. But in fact analysts reported wit…

2023-01-08 21:42:26 Exactly, but the other way around. Similar to climate science: systematic multi-country evidence and immunology research pointing in the same direction. Scientists *in the field* keep pointing this out. Other “side” is a few random people making baseless claims on Twitter. https://t.co/zsR8Y9lG1y

2023-01-08 20:47:12 @LCalabreseDO

2023-01-08 20:21:43 RT @byelin: Excellent thread, as usual. There are people (they know who they are) who have undermined the movement to learn more about Long…

2023-01-08 18:43:58 @KashPrime @StraightStats Totally agree on that problem. In the US, situation especially dire for pediatric care: it doesn’t make a lot of money, and there is very little slack in the already small system. Doesn’t take much to overwhem it, to great detriment of children. See this: https://t.co/cKroTLV9vZ

2023-01-08 18:16:10 @thetechnojoe @MECFSNews Here's the *co-author* of that very study trying to correct people constantly misrepresenting their study. Twitter is full of people — even MDs &

2023-01-08 17:23:36 @MECFSNews A lot of claims that this is like HIV or a flavor of it, etc. which, if untreated, always leads to horrific immunodeficiency or that there is no robust immunity to it. Short-term perturbations in the immune system are standard, of course, for every viral illness.

2023-01-08 17:20:58 @techn0politics @TaylorLorenz Absolutely. I'm convinced that for some, including many mild acute cases, COVID has triggered a horrible chronic post-viral illness—resembling ME/CFS &

2023-01-08 17:13:23 As many with a napkin and 2nd grade math ability have noticed, absurd claims about Long Covid do float around. That's *NOT* the patients' fault. Many quacks, frauds and opportunists use cancer, too. It doesn't invalidate the reality of the illness. https://t.co/m2ElfWIdQT

2023-01-08 17:06:55 As usual, I'll end with a plea to not let all this Twitter etc. nonsense lead people ignoring or denying the plight of Long Covid patients. These patients are really ill. Such upticks in horrible post-viral sequelae happened after previous pandemics, too. https://t.co/Fi31RNA5KR

2023-01-08 17:01:22 Of course, a few threads will do little good. On Twitter, this hardened into small echo-chambers impervious to evidence. Elsewhere, most everyone has tuned out, which is a shame especially since the burden of everyone tuning out falls disproportionately on the more vulnerable.

2023-01-08 16:57:55 It *is* possible to advocate for stronger protections against the burden of COVID and other respiratory illnesses — just check the prepandemic stats. It wasn't just flu either! They suck! — without making obviously empirically invalid claims. Just saying.

2023-01-08 16:47:32 We should do more to combat the burden of respiratory illnesses. The toll is real. It's high. It can be lower. Vaccines (Covid &

2023-01-08 16:37:41 Anyway, the gravely damaging pseudoscience of anti-vaxxers isn't confined to anti-vaxxers unfortunately. Science isn't infallible and not everything is fully known, obviously, but claims have to be judged by research and empirical reality. Big claims need big empirical support.

2023-01-08 16:30:52 The epi is clear enough — widespread immunodeficiency is not a subtle thing — but here's direct explanations by two eminent immunologists who are *very close* in policy preferences to strong mitigations, even zero COVID — they echo the rest of their field. https://t.co/dOx0CebLAU

2023-01-08 16:24:57 Not all good news. Look at the age breakdown of COVID-19 hospitalizations in WA and MA which track this well. Numbers largely due to people over 80, and some 70+ and 65+. Yes, the elderly do get ill from many viruses but this is also a failure of sufficient booster uptake. https://t.co/6u07itBPLh

2023-01-08 16:20:08 Updates: US flu trends: sharply down. US RSV hospitalizations: sharply down. US Monkeypox: close to zero. Same in Europe. Remember the claims that widespread post-COVID immunodeficiency had caused their earlier rises? If that were true, cases would have to be going up and up. https://t.co/AgGGvpHk1J

2023-01-07 22:27:46 Most amazing bright orange full moon rising over Manhattan, in case you’re local and want to look up. (Sorry crappy camera for the job). https://t.co/n7LmnLUvUe

2023-01-07 22:11:27 @smithsj Yeah. I can’t blame the patients — when one is so sick and when the medical establishment is treating you this badly, who can blame them? But I do blame the enablers. That process of empowering cranks, liars and posers discredits the reality and the urgency of the illness.

2023-01-07 22:07:42 @nataliesurely (I don’t think the letter is weak. I also don’t think your article covered most of it. By “weak” I mean making it look like the criticisms are a person’s tweet. It’s not. The article was weak, wrong, outdated and should be retracted or allow a lengthy reply, in my opinion).

2023-01-07 22:02:00 @microbear1

2023-01-07 22:00:12 @nataliesurely Your article had a many factual issues and basically lack of consideration for updated science that were raised by a lot of people, so picking the weakest arguments against isn’t a great idea. But it’s easy, I guess. I think NR should consider retracting or publishing a reply.

2023-01-07 21:57:42 @wsbgnl Those aren’t the ones that fool people who tend to follow me or traditional media like Toronto Star. This crowd does via a combination of relentless pseudoscience, ignoring empirical reality and abusive mob harassment tactics directed at anyone who points out the obvious.

2023-01-07 21:40:18 This “self-described” guy was quoted widely, including by the Toronto Star as an expert. His stuff never made sense. Gaining platform on Covid Twitter while spouting nonsense and being a misogynist jerk seem common. Narcissists exploiting people’s fears and information voids… https://t.co/au5OYsSntb

2023-01-07 21:30:13 @andrew_croxford Shocking, right? The most convoluted, evidence-free Twitter only theory is obviously empirically false.

2023-01-07 20:09:20 RT @jonathanstea: Two hallmark warning signs of pseudoscience: - Evasion of peer review - A focus on confirmation rather than refutation…

2023-01-07 19:51:45 RT @Daltmann10: Adaptive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 persist in the pharyngeal lymphoid tissue of children | Nature Immunology. ‘Our re…

2023-01-06 05:31:24 CAFIAC FIX

2023-01-03 15:31:24 @afilonov @elonmusk Actually this long predates that. Some of the “experts” Twitter officially recommended were… absolutely unreliable.

2023-01-03 15:24:17 @alf_hanna Not their crew scheduling software.

2023-01-03 15:18:59 @sebastiangood @CJHandmer @idlewords @pameeela We can't yet manage true closed-loop life support systems on earth *with* gravity and endless water, and in some cases even with air for free, for the kind of length of time that would get us to Mars, let alone stay there. Send the robots! Send lots of robots!

2023-01-03 15:15:02 @VersatiIeTwink @wanderer_jasnah The worst offenders are the few MDs and PhDs, imo, that rode the misery of other people to a Twitter following, and then blocked the actual rest of the field— accusing everyone else of being "minimizers", rude, etc. etc. Pathological liars that discredit science is their reality.

2023-01-03 15:13:17 @VersatiIeTwink @wanderer_jasnah It's especially weird because influenza does so much damage, including sometimes triggering debilitating post-viral illness. These liars prey on the patients, by simultaneously downplaying other viruses AND lying about this one AND making up stuff about immunity. Unconscionable.

2023-01-03 14:26:54 RT @propublica: ProPublica is looking for three newsrooms to join our Local Reporting Network! Deadline to apply: Feb. 1. (THREAD) https…

2023-01-03 04:57:22 RT @smithsj: If you have post-COVID POTS and can get to NorthShore Glenbrook Hospital (near Chicago) once a week for 24 weeks for infusions…

2023-01-03 04:41:26 That kind of day again. (Not referring to the medical doctors giving educated information about the observed event but the anecdote warriors who’ve long ago decided everything is due to past Covid OR the past vaccination). https://t.co/YfdoTixvNM

2023-01-03 00:38:13 RT @bengrosser: .@zeynep focuses on the relationships between old software, technical debt, executive reward, and deregulation as the heart…

2023-01-02 23:35:16 @OldDogHotel @LCalabreseDO Also here’s an print version of both in NYT in case it’s easier to access. https://t.co/8hX74LkC9C

2023-01-02 23:34:08 @OldDogHotel @rosanthony3 @MEActNet Does this work? https://t.co/TqGksk5RwJ

2023-01-02 23:28:45 @OldDogHotel @LCalabreseDO And gift link to my other follow article on post-viral illness. (Working on more atm). https://t.co/9od4Fqk95l

2023-01-02 23:25:33 @OldDogHotel @LCalabreseDO Gift link here! https://t.co/ekqUM0zLkJ

2023-01-02 22:59:40 @LCalabreseDO @my @ClevelandClinic Thank you! Will look.

2023-01-02 22:50:18 @wanderer_jasnah Since when is making up facts about the virus or the immune system or variants not allowed on Twitter? That crowd does that all the time. Including a few PhDs and MDs. Retrovirus, it is.

2023-01-02 22:31:53 @woolhatwoman @Doc_Valerie I learned of systems designed in the 90s that were using to two digits. 1990s!

2023-01-02 19:03:20 Yes, exactly. https://t.co/eBoUXldxrv

2023-01-02 18:17:12 @LCalabreseDO

2023-01-02 16:27:16 Government oversight doesn't mean micromanaging software. It means holding companies accountable for preventable failures because they decided to take the cheap route. Commercial flying is safe exactly because it is regulated well. Boeing Max debacle is example of when it fails.

2023-01-02 02:17:29 RT @idlewords: Here's the first installment of my case against landing human beings on Mars. You may think you disagree, but I'm going to t…

2023-01-02 01:36:03 RT @DrEBrauner: More about the Southwest debacle https://t.co/TQahQSzGmn

2023-01-01 17:59:48 RT @anecdotal: The excellent @zeynep details the history here but too late. What kind of stories were needed and where did they need to app…

2023-01-01 17:51:47 RT @greenhousenyt: While Southwest's CEO focused on maximizing profits—and avoiding big investments in software because that would reduce p…

2023-01-01 16:13:31 RT @rkgwork: "In March, in its open letter to the company, the union even placed updating the creaking scheduling technology above its dema…

2023-01-01 16:03:21 @MarketUrbanism @Queens4Evah Same. Would love a source. I have ton about the tuberculosis ventilation connection from early 20th century. Also corners accumulating pathogens. But interested now if this claim is single-source.

2023-01-01 15:57:50 @MarketUrbanism @Fwstanton So did know if the claim was single-sourced (seen it from multiple post-pandemic publications) and will look up, that said, they definitely understood the ventilation/tuberculosis connection and there were campaigns and designs about it. Agree any "mandate" would have records.

2023-01-01 15:46:25 @MarketUrbanism @Fwstanton Let me see. It’s not a post-pandemic claim.

2023-01-01 14:57:36 RT @michaelehead: Currently reading Sooner, Safer, Happier and at the part about Boeing’s abysmal company culture during the early 2000s. I…

2023-01-01 05:59:20 And yes, this. May 2023 bring health to more. https://t.co/rLzKY8jOcY

2023-01-01 05:43:13 Cheering on the 35+ minute 5k runners through Central Park, my best time, lol. What a great tradition, the midnight run. Here’s to doing more of many things for another year just because it’s fun, whatever the rankings. Happy New Year! https://t.co/OhM9igkWRO

2023-01-01 02:00:55 RT @ericacbarnett: Great explanation of the problems that felled @southwestair over the holidays and why a similar situation is inevitable…

2023-01-01 00:06:32 Cafiac Fix

2022-12-29 00:06:32 RT @RickABright: This is amazing to be able to test for 4 different viruses in a single, low-cost, in-home rapid test. This type of technol…

2022-12-29 00:00:12 *waves at chromeos folks* Last update broke access to Files/Folders in incognito mode. Anyone know when/if/how to fix this? (Preemptively: I *do* have a use case for this

2022-12-28 19:28:18 @zergdonkey @DanTappan I'd like to know if there was any "dial down the oxygen" in NYC in early 2020. I know the supply was strained and I followed "ran out of oxygen" stories elsewhere. But this is the first claim I've seen that they "dialed it down", and in a very public way. Someone should remember.

2022-12-28 19:09:15 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Btw who really benefits from him mismanaging Twitter like this? Traditional gatekeepers. Twitter had mixed dynamics, but it did give space to dissidents, smaller voices, etc. at the expense of traditional gatekeepers. The current implosion and/or Mastodon flight helps them most.

2022-12-28 19:05:17 @DanTappan The supply was strained. They ended up putting tanks in ICUs, where they don't normally use them. If it got to the point that there was an "overhead speaker" announcement publicly telling medical staff to dial down down the oxygen, there should be a witness or two around, no?

2022-12-28 19:02:23 @fromgroundlevel @Disney I don't disagree with you on Disney's behavior on China. Disney is also sues academics to stop them from publishing critical academic articles few would even read. It's terrible. Disney is also not seen as a leader of free speech blah blah by a deceived fan base.

2022-12-28 18:57:53 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias The other groups may irritate you, but have marginal power on most things that matter. And they have their own grifters who benefit from this. They're fine. They're probably more than fine, in fact. Couldn't ask for a better "enemy", so to speak.

2022-12-28 18:56:35 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Spear? Instead, they'll get eaten alive by more traditional, profit-driven capitalists as well as by lawyers because they're running things by the seat of their pants, while subsuming to powers like China.

2022-12-28 18:50:53 Any NYC medical staff or patient remember an announcement from the "overhead speaker" in early 2020 to "dial down the oxygen?" Surely, there'd be witnesses to a public announcement. An important fact to document, if so. India actually ran out of oxygen, it was catastrophic. https://t.co/N0MUkkF8AD https://t.co/Wd3MzmmjLq

2022-12-28 18:39:05 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias I submit that "fragile ego playing to an increasingly fringe fan base" will be a better fit as an explanation than "strong convictions held back by unpleasant but necessary trade-offs." He's not making those trade-offs where they'd count. He's not trade-off driven.

2022-12-28 18:37:25 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Also, how stupid is it to *polarize* around his one paid product, by constantly saying the previous blue checks were so desperate and lame etc. etc. they'd pony up. He made it hard for most to pay. But while blue checks should have opened up, the existing ones helped the ecology.

2022-12-28 18:36:27 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias They're checking you're not imitating a brand/celeb, not authenticating you. Not the same.

2022-12-28 18:30:45 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias I wanted them to open up verification, but they're not verifying. Just selling checks. I'm a huge proponent of subscription systems. But Twitter blue is almost identically to what it's been for two years. You still can't search or download your bookmarks. Where's the new code?

2022-12-28 18:28:45 I'm not saying hypocrisy due to business interests is a problem for him alone. That's pretty common. I'm saying his behavior isn't demonstrating lack of purity, but a lack of conviction and a fragile ego. Hypocrisy requires conviction to begin with. https://t.co/cMtaPGwTFq

2022-12-28 18:21:43 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Extremely thin-skinned, impulsive, and nobody around to stop him from tweeting lamest "tiny testicles" "insult" at 2am to a rando account AND he believes whatever stupid theories get thrown at him as long as it flatter him even in the dumbest way. Trumpian. Watch this space, eh?

2022-12-28 18:17:53 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias He could have had it all: a few firings for cred, turn over docs to good journalists, intro transparency, reinstate some suspensions, ship new product worth paying for... But his ego can't resist the unhinged wing of the fan cub. Watch China &

2022-12-28 18:06:02 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Okay, but even assuming a purely instrumentalist approach (whatever his convictions, does the behavior result in something you like "net-net"), I'll wager you'll lose "net-net", including say, platform overreach/monopoly, biosafety, performative/excessive mitigations, etc.

2022-12-28 17:58:52 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Cost benefit, hypocrisy, cowardice, etc. are obviously not limited to him. Agree other corporations/celebs doing the same with China. But he's pretending he's *driven* by free speech and overdone mitigations, lab leak concerns etc. etc. Come on. Bridge in King's County for sale.

2022-12-28 17:58:51 RT @PM_Thornton: DW: Zhang Zhan, the citizen journalist arrested for reporting on the #Wuhan lockdown, marks her second year in prison in #…

2022-12-28 17:56:02 @jonst0kes @mattyglesias Actually, at least I am saying the opposite. What he's saying publicly is NOT what he privately cares about—like with China, look at behavior is the better test. He's tweeting red meat at his increasingly lamer online fans. The behavior is proof of lack of strong private belief.

2022-12-27 20:25:59 @Illusionist999 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart I don't get the urge to belittle patients or deny its reality. Complex chronic illnesses can be especially cruel, and we just had a pandemic so it's not surprising that some people suffered worse and chronic outcomes. I wish we had better data. But that's not the patients fault.

2022-12-27 20:23:34 @Illusionist999 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart I don't have an exact numbers lacking data, especially since it has sub-types: post-ICU folks like other severe illnesses

2022-12-27 20:21:23 @Illusionist999 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart I have looked into available studies. The research into the epidemiology is not great, and we haven't put enough work into identifying biomarkers (simple clinical stuff obviously don't work — but it's not the first time a very real illness didn't, at first, have biomarkers).

2022-12-27 20:20:13 @ellbail @jonstewart Yeah. Paging Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (for real: the illness does need a celebrity or two to coax proper research and relief funds out of lawmakers).

2022-12-27 17:32:06 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart We don’t have a number for what you say: people “claiming” to have Long Covid. The epidemiology is lacking. A few people on Twitter with weird claims? So what? People fake cancer. That doesn’t make cancer fake. The illness is real. The suffering is real. That’s what’s important.

2022-12-27 17:06:41 @TheClarksTale @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart Look up their history. Especially ulcers. For the longest time it was seen as psychological in cause, especially for ambitious men who were thought to be defying doctors. A few doctors persisted and proved bacteria. In addition, stomach cancer have now essentially disappeared.

2022-12-27 15:18:08 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart May be a better comparison for you is ulcers? For decades, men were told that peptic ulcers —a painful, potentially fatal illness— were result of their driven personalities and noncompliance with doctors. It was in the eighties that medicine caught up with its bacterial causes.

2022-12-27 15:15:42 @Steve_Sailer @jonstewart You mean modern version of multiple sclerosis, another post-viral illness? Luckily, after decades of denying the illness, which does occur more in women, as there are significant differences in the immune systems of men and women, we got advanced tech to visualize the lesions.

2022-12-27 15:03:23 Yes, the epi is lacking. Yes, some sketchy people got high profile on social media by using the issue. But that's not the patients fault! They are real. Their suffering is real. A substantial number of people are severely ill. Trials are sluggish and few. There is no cure.

2022-12-27 14:56:20 Also please look at this issue beyond the Twitter dramas and personalities, which do not necessarily represent, and absolutely do not invalidate dire reality. There are a substantial number of people who are very, very ill and have run out of options, financially and personally.

2022-12-27 14:52:36 Urging news editors not to overlook Long Covid patients in their 2022 roundups. Some have had their third Christmas while desperately ill. After 9/11 it took years (and @jonstewart) to get action on the ongoing health problems of the first responders. We should not repeat that. https://t.co/tkloJz6nr5

2022-12-27 14:42:19 It's a skill but unfortunately, it's part of how authoritarian systems end up in big trouble, too. Nobody left to tell the big guy the facts.

2022-12-27 05:17:20 RT @mestizoqueso: TFW someone reminds you that the markets reopen tomorrow. https://t.co/4ZngsJg99m

2022-12-26 23:30:37 The point isn’t Medvedev was making straightforward predictions. (He’s not stupid). It’s that they purposefully do this messaging aimed at certain kinds of personalities. https://t.co/xv08kJuvRG

2022-12-26 23:25:50 @jason_pontin I get what they’re mocking. But the Elon reference/response is classic—it’s designed to elicit his reaction. And they actually used these themes in their actual propaganda efforts.

2022-12-26 23:03:55 "Yes, sir, all your [half-baked] ideas are most amazing ideas, sir. Those so-called elites that look down on you are the real stupid ones, sir. You're the most amazing brilliant one, sir." Many in countries ruled for long by authoritarians have to learn to do this to survive.

2022-12-26 22:57:43 Official Russia isn't that good at understanding the US—Texas secession is an ongoing theme in their propaganda because their mental model is Central Asian republics that *would* want to secede. But they know how to identify and flatter certain personality types. See also Trump. https://t.co/T5sncxLn0O

2022-12-26 22:50:03 @petersgoodman @DeanBaker13 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion I don't think there's substantive "better" that they'd need to shell out for, though, for a different result. Inactivated vaccines may even be more appropriate now compared with with spike-only ones, given antigenic evolution, had they actually used them to vaccinate fully.

2022-12-26 20:11:29 @petersgoodman @DeanBaker13 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion Again, key paper. There is some advantages here, too. Their vaccines are fine. https://t.co/1cYNcBL8ae

2022-12-26 20:04:46 @petersgoodman @DeanBaker13 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion If they were being rational, they would’ve at least opened up slowly with some mitigations to protect hospital capacity. And they would gave properly used the vaccines they had. They’re fine as vaccines. This is classic authoritarian incompetence and callousness, imo.

2022-12-26 20:02:31 @petersgoodman @DeanBaker13 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion But not because of the type of vaccine. Their vaccines are perfectly fine for all their purposes as long as it’s implemented properly, meaning the population got vaccinated and boosted. Inactivated vaccines have trade-offs, not all of it for the worse. They didn’t vaccinate well.

2022-12-26 15:29:40 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion They don’t even seem to have managed fever medication supply, especially for children. Uncontrolled high fever is a risk. Just terrible management to have it spread this fast without good preparation. It’s so incompetent that it boggles the mind. Authoritarianism isn’t efficient.

2022-12-26 15:26:40 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion Inactivated vaccines have drawbacks but may have other advantages even, and they could have managed this so much better. Better vaccination campaign. Slow exit with continuing mitigations to protect hospital capacity rather than this rapid pivot during respiratory virus season.

2022-12-26 15:23:41 @delong @dwallacewells @Noahpinion There are too many elderly unvaccinated and undervaccinated, plus they didn’t do a proper booster campaign this fall: important for elderly folks whose immune memory is less robust—true for all viruses. Plus they didn’t update hospital capacity so rapid spread is a big problem.

2022-12-26 01:22:15 @vijayiyer312 Yeah, not sure but it’s an interesting finding. Needs a deeper five. The lack of precision in defining Long Covid subsets is probably one of the biggest obstacles to efficient research. And yet, saying this results in Twitter pile-ons and backlash.

2022-12-25 18:34:17 @onegrenouille They got the endpoint by asking about clinical diagnosis so no other information. Not sure if they can go back and dig up the info. I hope they do.

2022-12-25 18:33:02 We should have had / and should have so many more clinical trials UK Recovery Trial. Randomized, blinded clinical trials are so, so valuable even from a basic science point of view. They provide huge clues to potential mechanisms to explore.

2022-12-25 18:30:49 Please note this from co-author. While it needs more investigation, it doesn't appear to be merely undiagnosed or pre-diabetes. Metformin is known to have anti-viral properties. This is a very interesting finding and why clinical trials are so important. https://t.co/vOhTi45nYz

2022-12-25 18:26:02 Ivermectin, no effect. Fluvoxamine... what's up? Weird curve, and while difference isn't statistically significant but it is in the wrong direction. Needs investigation, could be an important clue. Also, note the sex differences. Blinded study, but larger effect size for women.

2022-12-25 18:20:57 Significant. Two weeks on metformin, an anti-diabetic drug, reduced Long Covid diagnosis by 42% in high-BMI patients (>

2022-12-25 17:15:41 RT @SecKermani: Brave Afghan women protest against the Taliban’s ban on them attending university in Herat The Taliban *fire a water cann…

2022-12-25 15:11:43 @AngelidisAn @VirusesImmunity @PutrinoLab @resiapretorius @Daltmann10 @WesElyMD Wishing health to all, and may 2023 be the year for scientific breakthroughs for treatments that spread health to Long Covid patients.

2022-12-25 15:00:59 @dwallacewells @Noahpinion Also see, pretty important given where they are. https://t.co/1cYNcBLFZM

2022-12-25 14:50:49 @dwallacewells @Noahpinion I think there is more than enough evidence their vaccines are just fine, just need extra doses. There are papers *and* immunological reasons suggesting they work well, especially for severity. The Hk data is fine. Lack of mRNA vaccines are a rounding error to their core issues.

2022-12-24 18:38:20 RT @dakekang: I just came back from two harrowing days traveling from emergency ward to emergency ward around Baoding in Hebei, one of the…

2022-12-23 21:47:03 @ClarissaOakes2 Lol

2022-12-23 21:46:46 Also true. But my observation is that Twitter is very much a “rich get richer” environment. Some tweets get huge views, most get very, very few. Power law / preferential attachment type dynamics. This is likely true for all engagement-driven social media environments. https://t.co/V0xVlLAWUB

2022-12-23 19:27:21 Viewcounts discourage replies and threads, the conversational aspects which are more interesting parts of Twitter for many, and encourage broadcast-style tweeting and gunning for virality—engagement-driven dynamics. Basically, viewcounts likely discouraging for small accounts. https://t.co/an5cB9KjPz

2022-12-23 17:39:00 RT @chrischirp: See also this thread from @jburnmurdoch today where he brings the receipts (and a much broader conversation than just healt…

2022-12-23 17:16:36 RT @crtrud: Talked $TSLA this morning with @EdLudlow and @mattmiller1973 Will the third time Musk says "I'm done selling" be the charm?…

2022-12-23 14:00:21 @BenMazer At this point, it’s mostly a small Twitter bubble. I feel bad for the people they conned, which, unfortunately, even includes some scientists who have been very understandably disappointed by the official response, especially on denial of airborne transmission, and lost trust.

2022-12-23 13:57:17 @BenMazer I’ve seen the same crew discount findings or attempts to explain from very Zero Covid friendly eminent immunologists, from prominent Long Covid researchers, and even the authors of the studies they are “citing” (aka screenshots or snippets of jargon the audience can’t interpret)!

2022-12-23 13:55:03 @BenMazer So Long Covid —obviously a debilitating condition for many— findings should all be chased down. But the brouhaha over *maybe* but also very tiny (statistically significant but unclear if actually different) among the recovered is fascinating because all people seek is *keywords*.

2022-12-23 13:15:19 RT @CityLimitsNews: New Job Alert! City Limits, an award-winning nonprofit newsroom that has covered New York City since 1976, is seeking a…

2022-12-23 13:14:24 Despite the claim that the suspended journalists would be reinstated, at least the CNN and Washington Post reporters remain kicked off Twitter. They had noted the developments around the account reporting private jet info that Musk said would allow but later reversed course on. https://t.co/8O3lptg2hz

2022-12-23 04:27:26 RT @Campster: This whole thread is at once incredible and utterly unsurprising

2022-12-23 04:11:50 RT @niubi: TikTok admits tracking FT journalist in leaks investigation https://t.co/ijCJ5u2hX9 2 members of staff in US and 2 in China gain…

2022-12-23 01:29:26 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @BallouxFrancois @macroliter @michaelmina_lab @jakescottMD @origincanada It’s as if the entire field of aerosol science was saying transmission was airborne but there was a *Twitter only* theory it was *fomite only*—where things are at with Twitter only faux immunology. Not sure much else to do but let many eventually realize immunology is a field?

2022-12-23 01:25:14 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @BallouxFrancois @macroliter @michaelmina_lab @jakescottMD @origincanada They don’t even listen to immunologists like Danny Altmann of UK Indie Sage—close to Zero Covid world. They don’t listen to Akiko Iwasaki. They don’t listen to authors of studies they cite in these threads! But it’s Twitter only. Many immunologists may never heard these claims.

2022-12-22 21:19:06 RT @NasimiShabnam: Brave women out on the streets of Kabul today following Talibans BAN on female education. “They closed the schools, the…

2022-12-22 21:17:25 RT @darren_olivier: Phenomenal and damning reporting by the NY Times, providing strong evidence of the intentional killing of civilians in…

2022-12-22 20:07:09 RT @nytimes: ByteDance, the China-based parent company of TikTok, said an internal investigation found that employees had inappropriately o…

2022-12-22 03:59:36 @semaforben @mattblaze Among other things, Musk made the blue check pointless as a signal for reliable curation of news, breaking or otherwise. Why would anyone bother wading even more through noise? News, if it’s there, is harder to find. That’s what happens when people don’t understand ecology.

2022-12-22 03:08:44 @nothingsmonstrd @juicemoorthy The post-Musk changes are, indeed, minimal except the “own the libs” bit. So much for hard core coding.

2022-12-22 02:18:12 @sethjberman How about Twitter ships some product one can subscribe to? The current blue does nothing really useful.

2022-12-22 02:16:00 @juicemoorthy Where’s the experimentation? I’ve been advocating for subscriptions for about a decade now. But one has to offer subscriptions. That do something useful. The current blue model is “pay to own the libs”. That’s… not even a big market.

2022-12-22 02:12:35 @Aelkus https://t.co/EvSualhwCd

2022-12-22 02:00:27 Remarkable clip and thread. I complain that academics don’t put enough effort into understanding the financial structure of our sector, but… that’s not really part of their job. (They still should, imo). This is.. the basics of the business he purchased. To great brouhaha. https://t.co/Fe95JbUaop

2022-12-22 01:42:28 @Anto_Berto Neither repeated in-depth empirical work by so many immunology labs nor the obvious results from the global epidemiological curve can convince the argument by screenshot crowd, but maybe they can ask Elon Musk to do a poll.

2022-12-21 22:17:27 “27% are under 1 year old, meaning they're too young to be vaccinated and were relying on herd immunity for protection.” The anti-vaxxers and their enablers are endangering so many kids, including those too young to be vaccinated. https://t.co/NXnpB6a5uh

2022-12-21 17:29:09 Maybe shipping something new and useful would have moved the paid for blue check’s appeal beyond “own the libs” and/or narcissism. https://t.co/YGetP40rNP

2022-12-21 16:14:17 The way so many men’s stalkery obsession with women is excused as “criticism” amidst so much violence toward women is unacceptable and horrific. So often, it’s clear it’s pure obsession, nothing else. There is hardly a pretense. It’s the enablers that are especially infuriating.

2022-12-21 16:05:20 Employed as journalist. What is it with the UK? “His column, which was published on Sunday, said he was "dreaming of the day when [M Markle] is made to parade naked through the streets of every town in Britain while crowds chant, 'Shame!' and throw lumps of excrement at her". https://t.co/Lz0fCcxn8B

2022-12-21 14:17:20 RT @nayyeroar: Up until this moment, there were more women in Afghan universities than men. In a province like Herat, 80% were women.

2022-12-20 22:16:53 RT @nameshiv: I'm genuinely impressed by just how deftly this dude who has never been to the USA constantly pretends to be a US citizen in…

2022-12-20 22:09:25 @amyhoy I dunno. I’m sure stalking may be an issue for famous people. Even i have weirdos obsessed with me, and I’m nobody really. I sympathize with being worried. But no part of this incident seems to involve his private plane’s (not that hard to find with public information) location.

2022-12-20 22:03:53 Musk’s security is the suspect, not victim, says police. “The South Pasadena police has confirmed that an incident involving two vehicles was reported to the police.. but said that a member of Elon Musk’s security team is currently a suspect in the investigation, not a victim.” https://t.co/VrhRWbY2YN

2022-12-20 21:53:01 RT @EpsilonTheory: It's so weird that the macroeconomic environment has impacted Tesla (-41%) and not Ford (+1%) or GM (+8%) over the past…

2022-12-20 21:49:19 @oldfshndanne I’m not mocking anyone. What do you want me to do when immunologists after immunologist, even those whose papers he is citing allegedly in his defense, call him out while he *obsesses* with me? Years. I’ve nothing to do with his one-sided obsession. Anyway, do untag me. Thanks.

2022-12-20 21:40:02 @RichardfromSyd1 @wanderer_jasnah @jburnmurdoch Mild was for when so many people had immunity. Not true in China.

2022-12-20 20:53:48 @wanderer_jasnah @jburnmurdoch Yeah. Fingers crossed they aren’t as badly-prepared as their wildly rapid pivot suggests.

2022-12-20 20:49:51 @MarkELindsay @BenMazer It’s like sprinkling menthol smell on medication. It makes it.. mediciney.

2022-12-20 20:48:43 @jburnmurdoch Yeah but the HK death rate. While some people had nutty R0 numbers because they couldn’t calculate that properly, the CFR got ignored. I wouldn’t be surprised if the immunonaive Omicron CFR is higher than OG Wuhan. Tragic.

2022-12-20 20:45:45 @oldfshndanne Amazing multiyear obsession. I suggest he continue to tweet about immunologists and tag them, or maybe unblock them, as so many have already called him out. This stalkery obsession with me is nuts.

2022-12-20 20:43:39 @oldfshndanne Is that dude obsessively tweeting about me, still??? I know he’s blocked many immunologists or is blocked by them for harassing them. Why the obsession with me? I am *not* the reason his Covid papers remain uncited and so many immunologist have called him out for misinformation.

2022-12-20 20:40:10 @jburnmurdoch We’ve known this from Hong Kong, too. The “mildness” was from population immunity which, of course had a huge impact here. The China situation is tragic.

2022-12-20 20:37:49 @BenMazer @MarkELindsay Is that just US??? Like 10x car deaths???

2022-12-20 20:27:24 @MarkELindsay Lol

2022-12-20 20:27:15 @BenMazer @MarkELindsay Just some napkin math would help some much with these claims!!

2022-12-20 20:21:19 @MarkELindsay Nuts.

2022-12-20 01:26:13 RT @anwesh_satpathy: cannot believe we're at this stage now. https://t.co/vj80PIfbzk

2022-12-20 00:36:44 @goldman https://t.co/xlwESJorPr

2022-12-19 23:58:44 @scienceoverbias @AukeHoekstra Suggest getting off Twitter or find some scientists around you to ask. Have a great day!

2022-12-19 23:58:02 @scienceoverbias @AukeHoekstra Think before getting your science from content farms. If that were true, what would the world look like, given repeat infections are pretty common? That was an observational study on VA veterans: those likely to get reinfected during Delta were already worse off—selection effect.

2022-12-19 23:29:02 Of course, that’s already pretty clear from the epidemiological curve, regardless of Twitter nonsense—of which there is a lot these days. Though still sad for people victimized by all the lies and quackery, grateful for how many lives have been saved by these vaccines.

2022-12-19 23:25:36 New from Özlem Türeci &

2022-12-19 22:26:03 @goldman $tsla plus a debt structure with a big feedback loop will do that, I guess, eventually.

2022-12-19 22:12:38 Meanwhile, *actual* unvaccinated children are dying around the world from measles, the vaccine for which Elon Musk’s buddy Robert F. Kennedy is relentlessly lying about. All this isn’t “criticism” of Dr. Fauci either. It’s just unhinged, baseless rage. This isn’t entertaining. https://t.co/0OqCQSbdcN

2022-12-19 16:27:56 RT @garyblack00: What’s clear from Elon’s tweets last night: 1) Twitter in far worse shape than many believe (“be careful what you wish fo…

2022-12-19 03:51:19 @KDbyProxy Pretty much.

2022-12-19 03:48:51 Twitter a publisher??? Section 230. EU laws. Digital Markets Act. Lawyers leafing through yacht brochures, dreaming. Seized oligarch yachts perhaps within reach? Even funnier: many traditional publishers allow this, so making lawyers dream of based on a false comparison. https://t.co/9eO3ilFi52

2022-12-19 02:40:25 @sspencer_smb How is that Twitter debt going to work? Something has to give. The options aren’t endless.

2022-12-19 02:34:00 This is what that vote is about. Seems like an attempt at saving face before being forced to jump ship, anyway, by financial realities. (His creditors are certainly taking a huge haircut, too). https://t.co/2GJ7vJil3I

2022-12-19 02:11:29 @jbarro Creditors must have reconciled themselves to the large haircut by now, no? He clearly wants to drop it all and run away, probably has to, financially, but needs an excuse to save face. Hence a poll! Vox pecuniae, vox Dei.

2022-12-18 23:40:57 RT @kendallybrown: Shot // Chaser https://t.co/81ozcie9es

2022-12-18 18:27:42 RT @theosanderson: I guess somebody needs to set up a fedifinder which stores the connections in a DB rather than relying on bios. Could ve…

2022-12-18 18:03:27 RT @chrischirp: free speech absolutist

2022-12-18 17:30:50 Elon Musk and Jared Kushner’s actual realtime location disclosed—unlike a link to an account with information about an otherwise easily findable location of a *plane*. What’s the rule again? Anyway, Elon Musk and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner enjoying the World Cup final together. https://t.co/xJbhPIdr9E

2022-12-18 03:25:44 RT @donmoyn: 2. One of the reporters (still) suspended wrote nothing about his flight data. They simply have covered Musk critically. https…

2022-12-17 19:52:08 RT @emollick: Tom Lehrer has put all his songs online (including lyrics &

2022-12-17 17:16:08 @noUpside @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk Though not even discussing building "communities online". Seems kind of obvious that "what's today's half-baked idea on how to own the libs" may not be a great business plan. That may be fine for the owner, though Tesla shareholders seem also to have noticed that's the plan.

2022-12-17 16:01:01 @shasha55 Yikes. Sorry. People are.. well, there are so many, and all kinds of people exist even if few. Ignoring is best.

2022-12-17 15:58:47 @vansk24 @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk That’s a question for… 2024, in any real sense given even an optimistic production timeline.

2022-12-17 15:47:46 @hari Boring isn’t making that kind of money. The other two candidates, in addition, depend on government subsidies and/or EU sentiment. Then there’s the China dependency. And the lenders who’ll clearly take a haircut. It’s.. interesting.

2022-12-17 15:28:17 Anyway, the interesting question is how the debt will eventually be restructured, aka which company will be sacrificed for the boring part—main character meltdown of the day, on loop. The debt restructuring is clearly where the action is, and is playing outside blue check wars.

2022-12-17 15:13:48 @vijayiyer312 A good many niche communities have moved off as a group. I mean, if technical aspects of ML or astrophysics is your thing, you don't need to be on Twitter, especially if the rest of Twitter is about the main character meltdown of the day. The serendipity part is definitely worse.

2022-12-17 14:51:54 As an academic who studies platforms, this turmoil is interesting to me but isn't everyone else already bored to tears? There is entertaining chaos of sorts day-to-day, but overall, it's boring. Not that much new to say tbh. It may matter, but it's otherwise.. kinda boring.

2022-12-17 14:48:33 @zamishka I get paid, as an academic, to study all this! By turmoil, you mean fodder for my future paid work on topics that I find fun. It's a great job, can't complain. Blessed. I wonder how everyone else isn't bored to tears, though? I guess if not much else is going on for them?

2022-12-17 14:07:11 RT @roby_bhatt: Two papers this month w outcomes data for BA.5 bivalent booster: - 30-50% effective vs symptomatic infection - 73% effectiv…

2022-12-17 14:03:17 @bhartehome @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk Not really. Previous brigading attempts via mass reporting were weak in effect though people tried it all the time anyway. Adding friction would make something harder. Not so. This makes paid-for brigading sanctioned and effective—in fact, it makes it part of the business model.

2022-12-17 12:48:28 RT @roscaf: New business plan for bot farms, charge a few to mass mute attack people

2022-12-17 12:38:45 @Shadowling000 @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk Yes, reporting, which requires employee action and thus expensive, is heavily disincentivized. And turning “the only tool that makes the site tolerable for many” into a brigading tool.. will go in a very predictable path. Also expect mass preemptive blocking of Blue paid users.

2022-12-17 12:27:51 @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk As far as I can tell, the new business model seems to be: “Can’t ship product so let’s try to monetize ‘owning the libs’ and see what happens.” Napkin math has an answer to how that will go, just from the business side.

2022-12-17 12:14:49 @paulg @lexfridman @elonmusk We *know* exactly what will happen. Groups have been organizing fake mass reporting of ideological opponents for a long time. So the brigading will get supercharged. Meanwhile, Twitter blue still not offering actual new functionality, say better analytics, to incentivize subs.

2022-12-16 23:54:14 RT @talmonsmith: yo this is getting wild, @lopezlinette is both a great markets reporter and someone who also just happens to have done gr…

2022-12-16 03:01:00 For real tragicomic / ridiculous territory here. https://t.co/fsHTuu8mxR

2022-12-16 02:57:40 RT @DaveLeeFT: Twitter is preventing me (and others) from linking to their Mastodon profiles here https://t.co/KSfk26XbT1

2022-12-16 02:52:23 RT @Osinttechnical: Steve Herman, Voice of America's chief national correspondent, has been suspended. https://t.co/CplgDQefND

2022-12-16 02:50:07 RT @dburbach: Good lord, Twitter is now marking any Mastodon link as "sensitive content" and taking you to a "this link may be unsafe" warn…

2022-12-16 01:37:59 RT @oneunderscore__: Political pundit @keitholbermann has been suspended by Twitter. He had been tweeting critically of Elon Musk.

2022-12-16 01:31:43 RT @lichtspektrum: While so many of my journalist peers covering the Musk beat are being banned on Twitter literally right now, I would lik…

2022-12-16 01:23:09 RT @Kantrowitz: In retrospect, hilarious

2022-12-16 01:13:01 RT @oneunderscore__: @drewharwell The Intercept journalist @micahflee has been suspended. He had been writing critically about Elon Musk.

2022-12-16 01:10:08 RT @JDLand: Perhaps a good night for mass RTing of this.

2022-12-16 01:04:21 RT @az_rww: Literally as I was reading @MattBinder's tweet about Donie O'Sullivan's suspension he also got suspended https://t.co/HkrG3XO41q

2022-12-16 01:00:06 RT @mattyglesias: Started / going https://t.co/Bn6B80AITS

2022-12-16 00:54:16 RT @samstein: Reporters who cover Twitter at the NYT, CNN and WaPo, along with a few others, have seen their accounts on Twitter suspended…

2022-12-16 00:53:05 RT @stevemullis: Uh, wow. Erlon is just nuking a bunch of journalist accounts. Ryan Mac at the NYTimes as well.

2022-12-15 22:20:36 A thread from an English teacher on Chat GPT. I also don't see a world in which such AI tools — not just this specific one — aren't widely used, pretty soon, for a whole variety of applications, with a lot of complicated implications. https://t.co/8KqgSHeUd4

2022-12-15 20:43:03 RT @ByronTau: This case involving Twitter is a good look at how all modern governments collect information from digital platforms. It's not…

2022-12-15 20:09:36 @adamjkucharski @rozeggo

2022-12-15 19:56:47 Agree the calculator isn't an exact fit. ChatGPT *also* produces highly-polished, plausible nonsense. That's actually a big deal. Polished and highly-plausible prose completely loses any role as a signal, exactly as it becomes cheap to produce at scale. https://t.co/SteXhqE4n6

2022-12-15 17:31:38 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Lean≠Resilient "Looking to bolster their bottom lines, hospitals sought to wring more work out of fewer employees. When…

2022-12-15 17:27:31 RT @RosenzweigJane: Agree completely that we should not fight this tech by punishing students who use it. But we also need to recognize way…

2022-12-15 14:43:59 The stark inequalities in education are a huge obstacle, but it's also simply not possible to ignore all this, or deal with AI capabilities purely punitively (as plagiarism) in the classroom. It will just get worse. As before, re-imagining how we value people is the viable path. https://t.co/ClpzC0wTjv

2022-12-15 14:23:44 An actual expert on the topic of aortic aneurysm and dissection, as an antidote to the uninformed, dishonest opportunists of all stripes. His feed earlier had many specific answers. https://t.co/syTSLXOfLQ

2022-12-15 13:39:46 ChatGPT—and AI tools—are here. For education, rather than a futile, harmful battle through punitive surveillance and plagiarism detection, we should pour resources into a transformed education system. We faced this problem since the alphabet. Ask Plato. https://t.co/UfQbarQfNC https://t.co/fwFxTHIzxz

2022-12-14 22:28:30 RT @nytopinion: Many viruses are circulating. “Get your flu shots and updated Covid-19 booster vaccinations, which provide significant prot…

2022-12-11 16:03:04 History is full of such illusions, often deliberately crafted myth-making which helps sustain the illusion which helps the money accumulation which then helps sustain the illusion—see The Apprentice. Often *very* competent people who know better help out because it’s lucrative.

2022-12-11 15:58:43 The illusion people who were more lucky, good at subversion and driven than they were uber-competent geniuses who did magic can sustain itself longer than the money so accumulated that makes it possible runs out. Turns out a Twitter account is a revelation accelerant. See Trump.

2022-12-10 15:16:15 There is a reason we use statistics, not single individual examples, to try to understand causal effects of medical interventions or illness. And these tragedies involve real people and much suffering. They aren’t entertainment. A bit of restraint isn’t too much to expect.

2022-12-10 15:13:11 Many high profile deaths are now jumped on by antivaxxers as proof of vaccines allegedly causing such deaths. Others may want to consider why the baselessly speculated about singular young death is a favorite of the antivaxxer crowd before adopting the method. Tragedies happen.

2022-12-10 15:08:06 People should consider a single personal tragedy isn’t the best vehicle for baseless speculation on potential or imagined rare adverse effects or sequelae of any illness or medical intervention. Antivaxxers have used that method for decades, but now others recklessly jumping in.

2022-12-10 04:34:35 @celinegounder @GrantWahl You’re in our thoughts. Words fail. So sorry for your loss.

2022-12-10 00:42:04 RT @stevendamron: A disconnect between Twitter and Covid-19 reality? Say it's not true!

2022-12-09 22:03:57 @RodrigueBiscuit @dylbabe_ @nataliesurely Yes “Nobody is arguing for the denigration of functional disorders.” I agree that issue is real and complex. But there’s too much evidence to try to apply that framework to post-viral syndromes with symptoms such as cognitive and physical post-extortional malaise, POTS, etc.

2022-12-09 17:31:46 @richardvallee It's changing, and I know the strength of the resistance but the pandemic produced just too many cases, including among medical staff, and also for a virus we do test--so harder to lose and obscure the origin. Along with recent discovery of MS/EBV connection, things are moving.

2022-12-09 17:22:49 @nataliesurely It’s true exercise is great for other conditions, and PACE authors may be stubborn and bitter that they were so wrong about who that applies to, but the direction of the evidence is clear, overwhelming, and the sooner they accept it, the better. I didn’t just arrive at this.

2022-12-09 17:20:12 @nataliesurely Applying that to patients with postviral conditions that create post-exertional malaise—a large number and essentially the hallmark symptom—is like telling multiple sclerosis patients that they just need more exercise or diabetics more sugar—graded exercise is counterproductive.

2022-12-09 17:15:48 @dylbabe_ @nataliesurely Totally fine when it is. Can you imagine if we didn’t fund cancer research, didn’t bother developing effective tests and treatment for multiple sclerosis or cancer, told the patient it was FND and assigned CBT and GET, and then acted like they were resisting medical advice?

2022-12-09 17:09:21 @Etanarachel @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Because I don’t think that’s the most important dynamic. I don’t consider myself too gullible or uninformed. IMO, this is systematic, stubborn &

2022-12-09 17:04:01 @acanopyofstars @nataliesurely There is strikingly high intercoder reliability among actual clinicians—a big deal. Issue not that different from many other illnesses that we diagnose clinically. Yeah, there are challenges given complexity, but if people dug into the evidence, there's also much clarity.

2022-12-09 17:01:47 @nataliesurely And if one went beyond few stubborn PACE authors, who imo just can't accept the fact that they got something major wrong, and catch up with the epi and biomedical science *and* dig into the history, one can then continue to cover FND as it deserves, where it applies—not this.

2022-12-09 16:59:00 @nataliesurely But there's clearly a distinct, debilitating, chronic and not rare condition that's post-viral, many with LC and ME/CFS clearly have it, and for which graded exercise is often counterindicated (POTS, a common comorbidity complicates this), AND medicine has been gaslighting them.+

2022-12-09 16:57:16 @nataliesurely Two, yes. Not all PASC is post-viral syndrome. Some hospitalized have post-ICU syndrome, for ex. Rest in next tweet.

2022-12-09 16:40:42 @ryanlcooper Thanks. It's the second article in just a month or so that is representing what appears to be stubborn insistence of a few scientists whose work was faulty, and that even slow corners of medical science have moved on from. It's a bit like the airborne deniers, imo, at this point.

2022-12-09 16:37:56 @ryanlcooper Having done much research on this topic, and sympathetic to the challenges of functional disorders in general, I think it's actually not good because it is attempting to stuff post-viral syndromes into a bucket that just doesn't fit by ignoring evidence. https://t.co/DgNvRHYz6g

2022-12-09 15:21:28 @nataliesurely There are some cases of misdiagnosis of anything. And I also wrote current definitions of Long Covid are too vague. That doesn’t make post-viral syndromes into functional neurological disorders, which your article implies while relying on outdated and rightfully questioned work.

2022-12-09 13:39:45 If one's view of Long Covid is from Twitter, I'd really, really urge caution. Authors should visit a clinic, or interview a few hundred patients around the country, etc. On Twitter, you can find people who may confirm stereotypes. It doesn't mean they represent the illness.

2022-12-09 13:36:12 Adding: I think exercise is great. But all the many, many patients with post-exertional malaise I talked with HAVE TRIED IT. They *want* to be able to do more. The idea they're all resisting medical advice to be more active really, really doesn't fit. https://t.co/7L0ptJkVon

2022-12-09 13:25:32 Open offer to authors of such articles to introduce them to the increasing biomedical literature on post-viral syndromes (still too little because of lack of funding), a vast number of patients whose history simply do not fit, and top scientists working on this for a long time.

2022-12-09 13:19:43 @evolutionarypsy @onegrenouille Good to hear you say that! I've a friend with major depression who greatly benefits from cardio but slips as she tips into depression. I've nudged her to exercise for decades. After I interviewed many patients with PEM, my jaw was on the floor. How could anyone confuse the two?

2022-12-09 13:15:20 My earlier thread on earlier article with same claims from same few scientists whose study was (rightfully) questioned and medicine is moving on from. IMO, their view is contradicted by much evidence, confuses illness categories, and they need to move on. https://t.co/B4rOIzKGsC

2022-12-09 04:12:43 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias Even the WHO and the NHS, slow and bureaucratic, have abandoned GET. These patients want to desperately get better. They tried graded exercise. Some would amputate a limb if there was a glimmer of improvement there. Let me introduce you to many, many, many patients—over decades.

2022-12-09 03:59:02 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias The sooner medicine's gaslighting (no other word for it) campaign ends, and research funded and harmful (for this subgroup) approaches like GET abandoned in favor of better treatments, the easier to discuss what you seem to want to focus on, but which simply doesn't work here.

2022-12-09 03:55:24 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias Other things including injury (TBI has long been identified) may cause the same set of debilitating symptoms, but it's exceedingly clear that viral infections are a key dynamic, and for those, graded exercise (which many desperately wanting to get better try) does not really work

2022-12-09 03:41:21 @winstoncb @awgaffney @nataliesurely @newrepublic I'd, again, offer to introduce many, many patients whose independent stories do not fit this mold, go over decades (centuries!) of primary documentation of the syndromes, similarity to other examples of medical gaslighting &

2022-12-09 03:36:58 @winstoncb @awgaffney @nataliesurely @newrepublic I interviewed so many patients with these illnesses, and have yet to meet one that hasn't tried pretty much everything suggested, including CBT &

2022-12-09 03:33:16 @SteveWarden20 @smithsj @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Yep. This is SO likely to follow ulcers, HPV, airborne transmission into "wait, how did the establishment deny, reject, resist for so long" And one can write about psychosocial stress &

2022-12-09 03:23:59 @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I'm convinced their denial is likely the medical scandal of the century and also big breakthroughs possible if research is finally funded and pursued—especially with advances that finally allow working with viruses and immune system, both hard given very tiny size and complexity.

2022-12-09 03:20:42 @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias "Post-viral syndromes cause baffling and debilitating chronic illness" absolutely fits the epi, history, the biomedical research as well as *widespread* patient experience, while psychosocial suffering—real and relevant to many things—as the "but for" explainer simply does not.

2022-12-09 03:15:28 @Kantrowitz And what did we even learn? I'm not a fan of how much power these platforms have, or the lack of transparency—among fairly-lengthy beefs I've had with it all—but being treated like we're all idiots isn't really the opposite of that. I mean, see this. https://t.co/Tfcs75X8Ut

2022-12-09 02:38:10 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 Consider that the illness is appropriately comparable to imprisonment—some of the “rest” that people undertake to retain minimal functioning are similar to sensory-deprived solitary punishment. Honestly, the analogy isn’t misplaced. Just to communicate its severity.

2022-12-09 02:26:25 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 It’s not name calling. This isn’t something that one just jumps into by ignoring so much evidence, and especially given the level of suffering post-viral conditions bring. I speak of this after much research, and I’ve written long articles that reflect a fraction of the research.

2022-12-09 02:04:25 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It doesn’t fit the facts of this syndrome—the epidemiology, history, advancing science &

2022-12-09 01:23:53 @Kantrowitz I'm also still awaiting what requests the Trump White House made, we were told that happened and yet, all I've seen revealed is the Biden campaign flagging non-consensual nudes. I don't understand how people are playing this game like everyone else is that stupid.

2022-12-09 01:21:51 @Kantrowitz I'm not sure Twitter even denied "shadowbanning" as they defined it—meaning you just didn't appear. They clearly deboosted stuff, to use Musk's terminology, and Musk's plan is to be *even more aggressive* with deboosting. If that's shadowbanning, we will just have more of it.

2022-12-09 01:15:24 @katypearce @aschrock @jdp23 Ah, thank you! Also happy to have ChatGPT think we are co-author, fine with me, lol.

2022-12-09 01:13:38 @Kantrowitz One of the first things Musk did after purchasing Twitter was to announce that, going forward, Twitter would have an aggressive policy of shadow-banning "negative/hate" and "hate speech" — presumably now defined solely by Musk. It's pretty amazing that nobody seems to care.

2022-12-08 22:50:10 RT @linseymarr: Lots happening to ensure cleaner air. Though not headline-grabbing, these will make a difference: 1⃣ Lancet recs on non-in…

2022-12-08 22:26:19 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It's the "but for" bit. Many clearly have an illness not explainable by stress alone, wouldn't be this ill *but for* a post-viral syndrome, which clearly existed throughout history and that medicine, in denial, kept attributing to "psychosocial factors"— like they did to ulcers.

2022-12-08 22:08:46 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I could definitely do that as well, and so many have written about it—as have I. It just keeps happening. I understand her argument and I’m sympathetic to it *when it applies*. Just baffled by this ongoing effort to implausibly stuff something that really doesn’t fit into it.

2022-12-08 22:00:59 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Then don’t lump postviral syndromes into your argument. Stick to Havana syndrome or similar examples. Stop interviewing the gaslighting establishment. If you have spoken with that many suffering from post-viral syndromes, then your interpretation is weak. It *simply* doesn’t fit.

2022-12-08 21:45:45 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your arguments don’t apply here. Please pick relevant examples. You don’t want to be like the people who long resisted the clear evidence of bacterial roots of peptic ulcers, furthering much suffering. This is a version if that. Not everything that exists applies to everything.

2022-12-08 21:43:54 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I get your argument and sympathetic to it.. when it applies. Speak to 100s of very healthy, active folks who come down with virus and suddenly can’t walk to the bathroom, dig up centuries of examples and talk to immunologists—who never got funds to research deeper. Doesn’t apply.

2022-12-08 21:40:29 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias You’re ignoring much science and the experience &

2022-12-08 21:35:22 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your article is behind on the science and the epidemiology and the experience of so many, which means something regardless of your dismissal. I sincerely recommend focusing on examples like, say the Havana syndrome, which are plausible examples of what you’re talking about.

2022-12-08 21:33:21 @AdamMantine @mattyglesias @nataliesurely You probably also believe in bloodletting instead of antibiotics for infections.

2022-12-08 21:32:00 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely I wish everyone on this beat would stop, read up on the history of peptic ulcers, a century of patients being gaslit about what caused it and how that changed, before writing yet another article with the same arguments ignoring latest science. That’s not how we overcome dualism.

2022-12-08 21:28:48 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely Also ignoring the fact that the key problem is that the patients are being gaslit by the medical establishment, for post-viral conditions as well as what might plausibly be called functional disorders—and whatever interactions occur between autoimmune disorders and mental states.

2022-12-08 21:25:31 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely The article would’ve been OK if it cut every single sentence after “But Long Covid was never exactly as cut and dried as some quarters made it out to be”. Everything after that is either a distraction or ignores enormous amount of science and experience. It’s really not okay.

2022-12-08 16:47:32 @DannyFischer35 @jeffbenner Yes immunodeficiency is scary (sorry!) and not something subtle as it's so devastating. I guess they use jargon salad to scare regular people who cannot evaluate it so that they'll get Twitter followers. That's why they harass scientists doing real research—they expose the con.

2022-12-08 15:08:48 @Burgos

2022-12-08 13:00:00 CAFIAC FIX

2022-12-07 08:00:00 CAFIAC FIX

2022-11-15 19:25:02 @Dakota_150 @SenTinaSmith Thank you!

2022-11-15 18:46:04 @oldfshndanne You can see a lot of my writings at NYT and the Atlantic where I focus on that erosion of trust and credibility. I blame the WHO and CDC for that, and social media can't just replace credible, authoritative voices that should represent accurate and nuanced scientific knowledge.

2022-11-15 18:44:30 @oldfshndanne Yeah. I did a lot of work arguing for masks, and later for trying to get airborne transmission accepted, and I completely understand why official pronouncements, even if they exist aren't enough. See early pandemic profile on my work but.. https://t.co/sOrP43rory

2022-11-15 18:41:14 Yes! Method not confined to anti-vaxxers.Screenshot abstract, assume few can go read or understand actual scope

2022-11-15 18:37:41 @oldfshndanne Akiko Iwasaki is one of the scientists working on exactly that, and she really is both a very nice person, and committed to patients. I often ask her for her opinions about such things. She is working very hard, too, and I know their research is ongoing but not conclusive, yet.

2022-11-15 18:35:46 @oldfshndanne He's a leading immunologist of Indie Sage, a UK group very much pro-mitigations and co-author of a recent book on Long Covid. In my opinion, I don't think he'd make a definite claim on immunopathology of Long Covid patients alone, since that is being investigated so not definite.

2022-11-15 18:33:36 Official pandemic name of the method common to much pseudoscience is "argument from Nicki Minaj's Cousin's Friend's Balls".Take something real (a study only on X

2022-11-15 18:27:25 I should add this method of lying, a cousin of the anti-vaxxer's anectode.Take something rare but terrible (say MIS-C) or something studied as part of an illness (say immunopathology of Long Covid), and claim it is routine, applies regularly to all, etc.https://t.co/O2hYWZQIK7

2022-11-15 18:22:24 @oldfshndanne Problem is many viral threads on Twitter do not reflect the state of the research: what is routine and regular, what is seen only in severe acute or fatal cases, what is being looked at for Long Covid specifically, etc. Very hard to stay informed on such a complex topic here.

2022-11-15 18:20:48 @oldfshndanne Scientists like Iwasaki (she’s wonderful) are looking at immunopathology of Long Covid. Altmann, also scientist, above refers to the Twitter-viral claims of such immune dysfunction being routine after Covid—he says they, &

2022-11-15 17:50:58 @theosanderson This is such an interesting idea, to graph the Shannon entropy like this. Thank you!

2022-11-15 17:47:42 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford Well, all I can say is my criteria, in my view, is pretty strict. It's the genuine bad actors, liars, loons, etc. that are creating worst of the issues—a lot of people are confused and conned by them, but that's not the same. The usual 90/10 dynamic, though lately it is 99/1.

2022-11-15 17:45:58 @VersatiIeTwink @inducekarmaaa @Aguirre1Gustavo @DenoSignals Classic method to lie on Twitter: take an example of something terrible but rare, and falsely present it as common and routine mechanism. https://t.co/O2hYX08RYf

2022-11-15 17:43:50 @VersatiIeTwink @inducekarmaaa @Aguirre1Gustavo @DenoSignals Plus, I actually talk to researchers working on MIS-C, which is indeed very serious but fortunately quite rare, on how to further reduce the risk that rare. You can find many threads from me on MIS-C. Published in the NYT, too. https://t.co/Dru7vKjpyu https://t.co/UIaMgrqxOO

2022-11-15 17:32:44 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford We’re talking here about the bad actors part though. They also make reasonable debate difficult.

2022-11-15 17:05:32 @deeptabhattacha @andrew_croxford (Though, I'll be the first to say, it's work. They'll lie about you and then you'll get mobbed by people who've been lied to about both you and the state of science, etc. But you can mute/block the toxic people and answer some basic questions, clear up confusion—public service).

2022-11-15 16:38:27 @deeptabhattacha @andrew_croxford Obviously, I'm well aware of the vocal, toxic nonsense crowd (I seem to be their fave target for years now lolsob), so it may seem like they dominate, but they're just vocal—imo, many people would be grateful for better and accurate information, even if they couldn't be as vocal.

2022-11-15 16:36:41 @deeptabhattacha @andrew_croxford See the replies below? Folks in most need of better and accurate information (with all the uncertainties) are often the most vulnerable: Long Covid or ME patients, immunocompromised, etc. Many institutions have either lost credibility, are sluggish, or aren't doing right by them.

2022-11-15 16:33:41 @oldfshndanne When they say "severely infected" they mean acute severe case: hospitalized, very ill, ICU etc.

2022-11-15 15:54:05 @deeptabhattacha @andrew_croxford I get that, obviously. The problem is that some people get misled, usually more vulnerable people, and that’s a big public harm. A collective effort on clarifying just some basics would help the public as you know, some of the nonsense is.. pretty basic stuff being lied about.

2022-11-15 15:50:48 RT @BasharatPeer: Incredibly important essay on the future of internet freedom—considering big, fragile democracies like India— by @lpolgre…

2022-11-14 00:11:10 @GYamey @MarkELindsay @DrEricDing The shameless is one thing. The lying is another. That they are *also* so useless besides lying on Twitter takes the cake. What has that corner of Twitter achieved? I’d have some tolerance for even all this if there were the slightest evidence they had any positive contribution.

2022-11-14 00:07:19 @GYamey @MarkELindsay @DrEricDing Especially since here’s my original thread from March 2021.Ryan Gregory, in contrast, doesn’t even mention Long Covid even once till August 2021. Six mentions from him, total, in all of 2021!And yet people writing full page articles on the illness in the NYT are “minimizers”. https://t.co/RNLwtZBF6Z

2022-11-13 17:55:49 From a business perspective, this is why one probably shouldn’t fold one’s monetization strategy into an aggressive stance against many of the top active users on the site.The paid-for mark is now also a negative status symbol, a stigma, for a sizable portion of users. https://t.co/DbpT2qpWGE

2022-11-13 16:30:10 Second bait-and-switch in just one week. Lawyer says go visit, then denied at prison.Still no proof of life.Alaa Abdel Fattah must be on a plane to the UK, before any photo-op.If this is how they behave *during* #Cop27, what do you think will happen the moment it’s over? https://t.co/BeJPlMOOzK

2022-11-13 15:41:47 @BCarfree @davidtuller1 @NYMag @PutrinoLab @sunsopeningband @meghanor @PlzSolveCFS @mhornig @BatemanHorne Thank you! Yes, that’s the (unusual) order of those letters.

2022-11-13 14:39:41 These brave women *in Egypt* https://t.co/7wMMUU2cfg

2022-11-13 14:37:33 @bXLpedestrian Well your phrase relates to that essay, though it’s describing standard immunology and was fact-checked by multiple immunologists. Hence the campaign to misrepresent it, and the term, by those misleading regular people. In any case, the answer to your question is there.

2022-11-13 14:20:54 @bXLpedestrian Here, read the actual essay. Your description of it is wrong—maybe because it’s influenced by the incessant lying campaign by the same corner who’s been proven constantly wrong (to the degree they even had coherent claims?) and rely on jargon salad to hide that fact. Cheers. https://t.co/7j10tnydMv

2022-11-13 14:15:14 @adamjkucharski Exactly this. It’s turned into unhelpful mudslinging via everyone defining it differently. Weirdly, antibody waning is uncontroversial, and people have learned of antigenic evolution and nAb evasion thanks to SARS-CoV-2, both remain uninvoked as not as useful for mudslinging.

2022-11-13 14:10:56 RT @adamjkucharski: The difficulty with new epidemic terms - whether 'lockdown' or 'immunity debt' - is different people come up with very…

2022-11-13 14:03:08 @DavidSteadson Read the thread. I read the study and the supplements. This kind of causal inference questions is part of my academic area. My thread mainly was about the unchanged study design that keep being misrepresented and misunderstood, I updated thread with final version and tables. https://t.co/bwpLdI5wem

2022-11-13 07:08:46 RT @KatyAnderson: "Alaa is intervening in this global conversation by staking his fragile, incarcerated body as the argument. From his pris…

2022-11-13 06:13:13 @DrEricDing No “bullying” concerns anymore? Here’s the person sharing misleadingly altered tweets from me *warning* about Long Covid for young people in March 2021 to claim my tweet didn’t “age well”. He doesn’t even mention Long Covid once until August 2021. Six times total in all 2021. https://t.co/hBHR5sHyS7

2022-11-13 06:09:25 @andrew_croxford More context. https://t.co/hBHR5sHyS7

2022-11-13 00:08:20 RT @nytimesworld: In Egypt, a country where protests are banned, hundreds rallied at the COP27 climate talks, demanding climate reparations…

2022-11-12 22:02:59 @andrew_croxford Let me add context https://t.co/uvcOPu4cvw

2022-11-12 18:19:44 “The Most Eloquent Speaker at the Climate Summit Is Alaa Abd El Fattah” in the New York Times. https://t.co/nPn7qMlUZt

2022-11-12 16:22:20 RT @FreedomForAlaa: The crowd at Trafalgar Square is huge: it’s almost impossible to imagine we don’t know right now if @Alaa is alive or d…

2022-11-12 15:20:22 @Chris_Said @smithsj See full thread. Ryan didn't tweet about Long Covid *even once* till August 2021 but took my thread from March 2021 where I WARN of Long Covid as risk even for young folks and put a photoshopped screenshot of it in his alleged thread of "minimizer" tweets that "did not age well." https://t.co/uqBOWDuwli

2022-11-12 15:00:22 @Chris_Said @smithsj Twitter has some opportunists, liars &

2022-11-12 14:57:04 @Chris_Said @smithsj Post-viral illnesses are very real, come in different flavors, and there is a subset of Long Covid, that is baffling, chronic, debilitating and strikes many young people, too, even after a mild illness that overlaps with ME/CFS. See my article here. https://t.co/KtqEDJcd0l

2022-11-12 14:55:10 @Chris_Said @smithsj It is real, and patients are suffering. Don't go by Twitter alone, or these people. Here's what Twitter shows me as the entirety of R Gregory's tweets about Long Covid between March 2020 and December 31st 2021. Six tweets total? Get your info elsewhere. https://t.co/I9F7YSlTIZ https://t.co/VsPGTkgoLM

2022-11-12 14:21:30 @masonporter It’s all fun and games till your eyes glaze over while linking to a last minute study, and you ask to run a correction, and your non-academic colleagues are confused to what on earth is going on, and you’re trying to explain well, Springer had an idea and… https://t.co/4NXysyZWWS

2022-11-12 13:49:37 @JesParent

2022-11-12 13:40:24 RT @JesParent: Someone close to me has ME/CFS, and they were very happy to see this:

2022-11-12 13:35:59 @MarkELindsay @DrEricDing *2021!

2022-11-12 13:31:21 @macroliter @DrEricDing My sense: Instead of looking at honest, good scientists *within* that policy preference realm, arguing for strong mitigations, like @Daltmann10 or @chrischirp they got taken by jargon salad immunology, and now they must double down via dishonesty. Hence the photoshoped tweets.

2022-11-12 13:22:45 @MarkELindsay @DrEricDing It’s incredible, him finding out that I was worried about Long Covid in early 2012 even when there were fewer studies, and the main argument I was making was that it’s not enough to say young people are at low risk even if their cased are mild and.. doing what he did. Pathetic.

2022-11-12 13:20:22 @MarkELindsay @DrEricDing It’s in his thread of screenshots of “minimizers” whose threads allegedly did not age well. Actually the non-photoshopped version, me pointing out in early 2021 that Long Covid was a risk even to young people who might not have a severe case, did tragically, age very well. https://t.co/NHlgiLYFjQ

2022-11-12 13:01:14 A version of selection on dependent variable (or conditional probability) is clearly at play during Delta, but not as much for Omicron—antibody evasions meant it reinfected with much correlation to prior health status. The former is a classically difficult analytic challenge.

2022-11-12 12:58:07 Also looking at cohort alone without reading the study isn’t enough. Very high rates of diabetes, immunocompromised, hospitalization for first infection but comparisons control for known variables. Q is how much residual confounding during Delta, a different reinfection pattern? https://t.co/j8nV58QLOB

2022-11-12 12:54:35 Plus, I’m asking people to read the whole paper and supplements to talk to experts in statistics, confounding and electronic health records. My thread focused explaining on study design, widely misunderstood but also identical from preprint. Hence earlier thread.

2022-11-12 12:52:22 Adding clarification and a correction, helpfully pointed out by @bXLpedestrian. Average age in pubished version is 63.5 for non-infected control, 60 for reinfected. (Likely reflecting inclusion of some Omicron whose reinfection pattern was different than Delta. More on that next) https://t.co/5kpWF7illW

2022-11-12 12:48:38 @bXLpedestrian Also it’s “novelty means severity”. Read the article. It also explained antigenic drift, other sources of severity, *and* it has turned out to be prescient and correct. Its’s just been wildly misrepresented by people whose theories were pseudoscience and/or completely disproven.

2022-11-12 12:40:44 @ForgeRat @DocDominik I’m a co-author on the below paper, and another one in Science along with multiple major articles in NYT and the Atlantic arguing for recognizing airborne transmission. “Enemy” thinking isn’t how good science is done. https://t.co/3QwmzY0qey

2022-11-12 12:13:53 @bXLpedestrian @loscharlos I’ll add that to thread when I return to laptop. It’s hard to express everything in a single tweet.

2022-11-12 11:47:17 @bXLpedestrian I respond by explaining what the studies do and don’t measure, so that they realize it really is a major problem even if any one headline is making claims that are obviously at odds with clear empirical reality. Otherwise, why bother? It is easier to pander or keep quiet.

2022-11-12 11:45:08 @bXLpedestrian I spend a good amount of time, off Twitter, trying to convince people, MDs, policymakers, journalists, etc. that Long Covid needs much more attention. “But the numbers thrown around are implausible so I started thinking it was exaggerated” is a tragically common response.

2022-11-11 23:40:02 @zoonotic1 @ENirenberg @phealthsean @CT_Bergstrom It’s few days after I posted a full page article in the New York Times, emphasizing how real Long Covid is. And the carefully whited out tweet is from early 2021, showing I took it seriously even back then, but “incomplete screen grab” just happens to imply the opposite. Come on.

2022-11-11 23:36:20 @zoonotic1 @ENirenberg @phealthsean Give me a break. @CT_Bergstrom pointed it out to him in real time, if you check. There is no way to have that kind of “incomplete screen grab” except by… intentionally whiting out *parts* of the tweet. Also beyond a block, hoping I wouldn’t see it? No link to my thread either.

2022-11-11 21:03:11 RT @ENirenberg: If you have to resort to blatant dishonesty to make your points, consider that maybe you’re doing something wrong.

2022-11-11 21:02:53 @sunsopeningband @shasha55 @RaviHVJ @Dakota_150 @richardvallee @MVGutierrezMD @CNBC @jenloveslon @Emily_Lorsch @patientled @PutrinoLab @research_long @EdMarkey @RepRaskin @MEActNOW Agree

2022-11-11 20:55:04 @missrobinson @DrEricDing Thank you. I think he may be counting on the fact that some Long Covid patients may not have the energy and time to play detective to understand what he’s doing. It’s a low I wouldn’t have expected, but here you go.

2022-11-11 20:52:10 RT @Monasosh: This is by far one of the best interventions made on behalf of our family and @alaa @LadyBasildon truly understands our ord…

2022-11-11 20:33:19 @Todd_Friesen @KrauthBen @DrEricDing

2022-11-11 20:01:29 @loscharlos @llama_survivor It’s actually explained in the paper, at the end. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-11 17:10:07 Misrepresentation of actual results and context of limits of studies in traditional or social media has many root causes, and it's really harmful to public trust, patient interests and science.That's why I occasionally comment on egregious examples. https://t.co/3HizXzlM07

2022-11-11 16:54:38 @shasha55 @RaviHVJ @Dakota_150 @richardvallee @MVGutierrezMD @CNBC @jenloveslon @Emily_Lorsch @patientled @PutrinoLab @research_long @EdMarkey @RepRaskin @julierehmeyer @brianvastag There's also this history, not ME/CFS but you see the same dynamics. https://t.co/zaTgk6Cyqf

2022-11-11 16:48:16 Indeed. Read. The. Full. Study. Please.Take some to understand the study design, what it is measuring and what it is not, who the cohort is, etc.Then, additionally, people pointed to shortcomings electronic health records—this affects all EHR studies.https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-11 16:35:34 @mlipsitch @DocJeffD @CarlosdelRio7 @EricTopol @DeptVetAffairs @NatureMedicine @zalaly @walidgellad Yep!!!

2022-11-11 16:05:30 @KrauthBen @DrEricDing Sharing photoshopped screenshots of my tweets to make it seem like the opposite of what I am actually saying seems to be way past any defensible line, but hey, let his friends think about ethics and bullying etc., what can I say?

2022-11-11 15:46:21 RT @siobhan_ogrady: Biden is about to meet Sisi. The family of Alaa Abdel Fattah is pleading for him to secure his release — but also not t…

2022-11-11 15:32:55 See thread here. Massive ongoing failure to read the study and even correctly represent what it studied, let alone providing context. https://t.co/Ijox8i3vqq

2022-11-11 15:10:19 @missrobinson @DrEricDing Blatant photoshoping of tweets is a new low, even for that crowd tbh.

2022-11-11 14:50:57 @mlipsitch @DocJeffD @CarlosdelRio7 @EricTopol @DeptVetAffairs @NatureMedicine @zalaly @walidgellad There is the usual questions about what this study has as limitations (cohort, EHR, etc) which affect all studies, and there's also blatant, absolutely misleading misreading of this study that's just disappointly common in media, because they don't read/understand studies.

2022-11-11 14:49:31 @mlipsitch @DocJeffD @CarlosdelRio7 @EricTopol @DeptVetAffairs @NatureMedicine @zalaly @walidgellad Yes. Look at this nonsense headline, and article going viral on Twitter, even though this study hasn't not looked at this particular question (reinfection risks *compared with* first infection), and other studies have and found the opposite. Media fail. https://t.co/TjtlRoobJV

2022-11-11 14:19:55 RT @davidtuller1: It's been great to see a few recent news articles highlight PEM! Most people have no idea what it is. This post mentions…

2022-11-11 14:15:49 @loscharlos Same though, it compares people reinfected to people not reinfected, in a scenario when the reinfected were more frail than the non reinfected, not whether reinfections have worse sequelae than the initial infection. Happy to add it to the thread in a minute!

2022-11-11 14:10:20 @ValeBodi @vijayiyer312 Absolutely. Current stats dominated by the severity-correlated Long Covid sequelae (elderly patient declines after severe illness, for example) and while that subset is, of course, very important, we need separate studies for the young/mild case that turns into debilitating ME.

2022-11-11 14:08:33 @lionel_rich1 Hate me, disagree with me, gossip and nonstop tweet about me behind a block, whatever. I ignore all that. Trying to mislead this vulnerable patient community is inexcusable

2022-11-11 14:06:01 @lionel_rich1 Yep. He shared this blatantly photoshopped tweet from me to make it falsely look like I didn't care about LC, TWO DAYS after I published a full page article in the New York Times about why we should expand and accelerate research on Long Covid, and urgently support the patients.

2022-11-11 13:50:31 @vijayiyer312 So important to keep studying both, and being accurate about which study pertains to what group — the younger, had a mild case that later turned off their life upside down group really needs to be represented in other studies, which VA studies cannot do due to cohort.

2022-11-11 13:49:17 @vijayiyer312 So whatever else about study design, what it can show, limits of using EHR, etc. this is a frail older group where Long Covid is more sequelae from having severe acute illness rather than the cases of younger people with milder cases turning into debilitating, ME-like illness.

2022-11-11 13:47:28 @vijayiyer312 Yes, VA cohort, avg age 65 (half older), almost all men, and average number of meds is 10. IIRC, 30% diabetic, so fairly frail. Sequelae highly correlated with severity, different than the younger, previously active/healthy crowd getting ME-like Long Covid even after mild cases.

2022-11-11 13:42:49 @klausenhauser @DrEricDing It's worse. I've been writing high-profile articles in the NYT, calling for attention, research and support for Long Covid patients, so that group has started a campaign of lies (like the above) to make it seem like I don't care about LC. So photoshopped tweets it is.

2022-11-11 13:40:05 @nxthompson

2022-11-11 01:34:22 RT @AstroKatie: Shocking to see that the pay-for-verification system we all told them would be an utter disaster and impersonation free-for…

2022-11-11 01:03:10 @MartianPontiac @loscharlos @andyaschmidt @Robotistry That is exactly correct and you can see it in the supplements where the cohorts are described. Keep in mind that this was during Delta, which is a very relevant point. I am merely describing the study.

2022-11-11 00:01:36 RT @Monasosh: "The family is now demanding immediate access to him, whether in prison or a hospital, expressing concerns he could die under…

2022-11-10 23:28:30 RT @FreedomForAlaa: HOUSE OF LORDS PRESSURE INCREASES ON @RishiSunak: @LadyBasildon: “If even the PM can’t secure Consular Access for a B…

2022-11-10 21:12:28 @LinzaItkonen

2022-11-10 20:04:09 See thread. The actual finding is in second tweet below. It matters, as long as it’s represented correctly. https://t.co/iSG6m0G2dc https://t.co/ctcbtHiLUS

2022-11-10 19:28:56 Real pressure, not words are necessary. https://t.co/aBimRZvmk3

2022-11-10 19:22:25 Does this mean we don’t care about A? Of course not. The opposite. When studies get misrepresented, the result is people tune it *all* out—just look around. Otherwise I’d ignore such cases, when study design and limitations are poorly represented. https://t.co/Vind2E4ec0

2022-11-10 19:19:49 “If A got shot twice, they’d be worse off than B who got shot once, even if 2nd shot grazed A, plus since it compares hospital records, A was in the hospital and got additional diagnoses B didn’t get checked for *and* being reshot correlated with more frailty in the first place.”

2022-11-10 18:42:11 People saying trying to explain the study means I don't care about what happened to these elderly, frail mostly men who got reinfected with Delta which hit frail people much more? Absolutely opposite. It was a colossal failure. I'm angry about that. Being accurate is a duty!

2022-11-10 18:24:57 Very true. Folks should read the full study and think about methods: What is the design? What are the internal and external validity questions?The public is confused, and misrepresenting studies further confuses everyone.https://t.co/1kGKuXp1FJ

2022-11-10 18:22:23 I'm pretty convinced when things get misunderstood, and claims that aren't correct get made, then everyone tunes out completely, to the part that matters as well.So I urge folks to check out many threads explaining this study, and TO READ IT including supplements. That's all.

2022-11-10 18:21:00 Why is it important to be correct? Because many studies have shown that reinfections are, on average, mild to asymptomatic. But a frail group like this study (average age 65, many illnesses, reinfected 8x more immunocompromised) don't fare as well. https://t.co/heoYzhxIOc

2022-11-10 18:13:39 And also. (This below is an internal validity issue, that all EHR studies are limited by. This is in addition to what the study design is aimed at, which doesn't show the impact of reinfections vs first infection, the common misunderstanding). https://t.co/3q5s8Tpxf4

2022-11-10 18:10:41 Also see here. People have been trying and trying and trying to explain both the generalizability and internal validity issues that pertain to this study (these are issues every study interpretation must consider). https://t.co/eOVOkr3mCH

2022-11-10 18:06:36 It's one of the worst misunderstood studies in media.Take a look at the study design (from the supplements above) before writing about it, if you care to be accurate!

2022-11-10 18:03:40 The study period is mostly Delta, and the cohort is elderly, male and frail — Delta reinfections hit immunocompromised and frail worse, so as a cohort, they are worse off than people who did not get reinfected. (Not reinfections are worse than first infections—different issue.)

2022-11-10 18:00:39 This is now out.Reminder: Study only compares people with multiple infections to those without, not reinfections to first infections."If you fell twice, are you worse off compared with person who only fell once, especially if falls correlate with frailty in the first place". https://t.co/iAn4d5Ol1p https://t.co/z6ip0eW4jN

2022-11-10 17:19:54 @ArisKatzourakis From you? I’m not saying you misunderstood the study. (haven’t seen anything to suggest that.) Just frustrated nobody seems to know read it carefully and it gets misrepresented so much (not saying you!). It’s a long-standing issue. I just occasionally comment when it’s shared.

2022-11-10 17:14:54 @ArisKatzourakis Also, that study gets misinterpreted so often.It's about one vs two infections, not looking at effects of reinfection. (Is someone who falls twice worse off than someone fell only once, especially if they are ill and prone to falling?)See here. https://t.co/UCSuw8EXji

2022-11-10 10:57:27 RT @NGKabra: @shrikant @acorn How about: "Belonging is stronger than facts" — @zeynep https://t.co/BjcPHqIUWX https://t.co/2ePBCOWwKU

2022-11-10 09:08:35 RT @rachel_cheung1: Apple put a 10-min cap on receiving files from strangers thru AirDrop on iPhones in China. “Can’t you tell this is App…

2022-11-10 06:47:04 And now they are going after Alaa’s sister Sanaa. She went back knowingly, to try to save her brother’s life. https://t.co/ubvexmSbuY

2022-11-10 02:16:38 @jmping Sent DM

2022-11-10 02:00:54 Yep. I’m for democratizing it, but this current method is “none of the above.” Status symbol, authentication, purchasable. Pick two. https://t.co/bl5J5qg40d

2022-11-10 01:56:42 Yeah anything. Just wondering if a quick pilot could be quickly done by finding sufficient volunteers to donate wearable health data, especially sleep, movement and heart rate variability. https://t.co/sYQzgVxihJ

2022-11-10 01:53:55 That would be ignoring the poll. https://t.co/KFE9Y7KT6P

2022-11-10 01:52:01 @markmcneilly It’s called ignoring the tweet.

2022-11-10 01:49:48 Quick Poll: Are there folks with 2020-2022 wearable data (Apple Watch, Whoop, etc.) who might consider sharing it with a research team, if it came to be? We’d ask about Covid status and ongoing symptoms or Long Covid. Trying to gauge plausibility of a quick pilot study.

2022-11-10 01:37:41 RT @AmandaMoMorris: It should not be this hard to vote in America.

2022-11-10 01:25:28 RT @limlouisa: Remembering Bao Tong, who died yesterday aged ninety. He was an extraordinary person who paid the highest price for his pri…

2022-11-10 01:06:59 @dsquareddigest You should write a follow-up book, especially after today. I’m finishing up the previous one. Structuralist catnip, it’s great.

2022-11-10 00:51:21 @balajis Awaiting the step afterwards. I don’t think run in the other direction will do it. https://t.co/DstMJJR3ON

2022-11-10 00:50:18 RT @mileswgriffis: 4/ @zeynep, an opinion columnist at the New York Times, compiled a thread (that lead to a lengthy discussion) on the sto…

2022-11-10 00:49:57 @balajis So the dangers of bank runs are painfully being relearnt. Correlated assets, tomorrow I suppose. https://t.co/hIozndblgP https://t.co/GXDzxmEwlD

2022-11-09 23:13:48 She herself is at risk, having gone back to save her brother’s life. https://t.co/rT2oyALwMY

2022-11-09 22:03:34 RT @CT_Bergstrom: We have already seen nuclear bluster as a result of officials confusing fake news stories for true ones. We tell one such…

2022-11-09 21:00:27 @felixsalmon

2022-11-09 19:06:31 Something for #Cop27 attendees to do. Wear something white. You can even use white table napkin or small towel pinned to a visible pocket. It will mean so much for the political prisoners and their families. https://t.co/hgjPIAvsRU

2022-11-09 18:02:02 @shasha55 @D_Bone Thanks. And I’m also not blaming anybody else for frustrations. I’m specifically saying there are a few people obsessively lying about me, and they’ve been doing it *long before* this. My opinions are in my pieces, hence my list, and I welcome disagreements on my actual opinions.

2022-11-09 17:54:53 Three women journalists in Egypt are on a hunger strike in solidarity with Alaa. They could end up in jail, too, under horrific conditions, for who knows how long.Bravery.Perhaps a tiny amount will rub off on world leaders before photo up time at #Cop27. https://t.co/GGaL3yVMq6

2022-11-09 17:39:11 @D_Bone @shasha55 I obviously have a great job, and my risk-taking didn't result in me getting fired, and I'm not looking for kudos. I genuinely consider it a privilege, who wouldn't?But I think focusing on NYT pieces and actual research is better use of my time than those few liars on Twitter.

2022-11-09 17:35:55 @D_Bone @shasha55 Here's my writing from the NYT. I'm always open to disagreements about my *actual* opinions. I'm not looking for kudos, I consider it a privilege to be able to do this. But I'll listen to disagreements about my *actual* opinions, fair, no?https://t.co/yOGaw4pcb2

2022-11-09 17:33:56 @D_Bone @shasha55 Instead, I delayed moving partly because I could keep writing about the pandemic — better masks, warning about variants, airborne transmission, rapid tests, etc. Here's some of that writing from the Atlantic. I'm happy about what I got done that year. https://t.co/LrKHPtlg8f

2022-11-09 17:32:01 @D_Bone @shasha55 Also, I got my Columbia job *before the pandemic* on pre-pandemic work. My previous job was great, too. Here's a profile from before. I could've kept writing about tech/society — much more readers and kudos, if that's what I were chasing to be honest. https://t.co/ApZxiEbVSH

2022-11-09 17:29:53 @D_Bone @shasha55 So, 8/2020 profile of me in the NYT, including pre-pandemic work.At the time, so publicly opposing the CDC and the WHO, saying we should wear masks and it's airborne were not easy, and I thought my public writing career might end. Got attacked so much.https://t.co/ZQbdCcv6Ar

2022-11-09 17:04:11 @D_Bone @shasha55 I could spend my whole day collecting my actual record, refuting lies on Twitter, but honestly, I think my time is better spent working forward. In fact, that's what I'm gonna do right now—but I should spend an hour and collate my actual writing for people who don't know.

2022-11-09 17:02:27 @D_Bone @shasha55 Maybe should collect what I did before? Started with NYT piece March 2020 calling for masks, reporting is it tipped balance for the CDC. Wrote/argued for airborne transmission mitigations from June 2020. Probably earliest mainstream pieces warning about Alpha, Delta &

2022-11-09 16:56:11 @D_Bone @shasha55 Gift link to my NYT article on how ME and LC protesters risked so much to try to get attention, and what it cost them (documenting the PEM/suffering in the aftermath). https://t.co/9od4FqkGUT

2022-11-09 16:54:31 @D_Bone @shasha55 Also, here's the gift link to my full-page NYT article on the sorry state of LC research, why that billion isn't doing much good for treatment, calling for a new institute, and explaining the history of gaslighting with ME/CFS as well. https://t.co/ekqUM0zLkJ

2022-11-09 16:52:50 @D_Bone @shasha55 And here's my thread responding to what I thought was an out-of-date, misleading and harmful piece about graded-exercise-therapy and Long Covid and ME.These are my opinions, happy to hear, always, what people disagree with for my actual opinions. https://t.co/B4rOIzsxeu

2022-11-09 16:50:48 @D_Bone @shasha55 I didn't ask to be called anything. No problem disagreeing with my *actual* opinions. Here: the NYT print versions of my pieces on LC and on ME, and their threads.Should I waste my time on flame wars with liars on Twitter instead?https://t.co/9pG3Q9vG28https://t.co/S9lSYchQF9 https://t.co/5aXQ0b1WAG

2022-11-09 16:41:15 @D_Bone @shasha55 Anyway, aside from the sociology of it, the few liars largely irrelevant. As for actual patients now encountering them? I’ll let time do its work, personally, but as she was saying, this is obviously a tough illness and my personal lack of concern doesn’t mean it’s not harmful.

2022-11-09 16:38:33 @D_Bone @shasha55 The lying campaign was started by few people long ago—they’re not ill, or don’t claim to be, and I didn’t even know they existed until they got obsessed with me. Been more than a year. You’d have to ask them. The sociology of it is interesting as toxicity of Twitter my research.

2022-11-09 16:07:47 RT @AmnestyUK: “We know nothing...@UKinEgypt have been unable to even get proof he is alive“ - Alaa's sister, MonaSince #COP27 began, Ala…

2022-11-09 16:07:42 RT @katha_nina: I hope he is still with us, I hope he will be freed...We need people like my brother #AlaaAbdelfattah to address the global…

2022-11-09 16:07:25 RT @thefreedomi: “There is something truly perverse in Sissi’s assumption that the world would ignore Alaa’s plight,” @thefreedomi's @Allis…

2022-11-09 16:06:38 @shasha55 @NIHDirector @NINDSdirector @minadjenkins Completely agree. Did you see my NYT piece calling for a version of that? Specifically on post-viral illnesses? https://t.co/9BlUds5X2C

2022-11-09 16:03:21 @shasha55 I would love to have that chance! Of course, that crew can mislead a few patients, or if a few patients are joining that stuff, so what? We wouldn't dismiss cancer or its importance if a few cancer patients were saying terrible stuff? It's just the human experience. Cheers!

2022-11-09 01:39:39 RT @mealreplacer: In this piece, I explore a weak-form version of @zeynep's law. My claim is that when we overestimate second-order effects…

2022-11-09 01:10:00 @PepperMarion @PrunerKurt @lailashehata17 Looks beautiful!

2022-11-09 00:54:40 RT @FreedomForAlaa: The Washington Post, on this incident."Human rights advocates said it perfectly exemplified to a crowd of foreign obs…

2022-11-08 23:24:29 RT @louisahsmith: I just enrolled in Pfizer's phase 3 trial of its Lyme disease vaccine! Fellow dog owners and/or outdoorsy types in Lyme-e…

2022-11-08 21:01:26 @Dave99117584 @origincanada @mocoband @evecitizen36339 @LongCovidAdvoc I have a lot of mentions! Sorry, I can't respond to everyone. No interest in the personal animosity side, most of the time, I'm tweeting really basic stuff from many hard-working immunologists, and if people get mad at that, I just ignore it.

2022-11-08 20:52:01 @Dave99117584 @origincanada @mocoband @evecitizen36339 @LongCovidAdvoc Why? I've no connection to him, that corner only pops up occasionally because he seems to tweet lies about me nonstop, and sometimes one of his followers will ping me. It's the field of immunology that he seems to have a problem with, and I certainly don't run that either.

2022-11-08 20:22:26 RT @siobhan_ogrady: Biggest crowd I’ve seen at any pavilion is now gathered outside of the German pavilion for a talk on human rights again…

2022-11-08 18:45:58 @origincanada @mocoband @evecitizen36339 @LongCovidAdvoc There are many scientists also looking at T cells and immunopathology in LC patients as well as for ME/CFS. I talk to them all the time. Very appreciative of their work. They do science, not make stuff up on Twitter and then claim they were right based solely on jargon salad.

2022-11-08 18:43:01 @stephenjudkins Those are VERY VERY pro-mitigation immunologists. They're with UK's Indie Sage. The difference is, whatever their policy positions, their disagreements are within science, clear about remaining uncertainty, and get updated with evidencex. Twitter pseudoscience does not.

2022-11-08 18:38:28 Also, actual scientists can disagree, even vehemently, debate, *move forward* with evidence, and the best of them have high respect for each other through the debate—as below.Nonsense toxic campaigns on Twitter can get RTs and mislead, but not inform. https://t.co/uMbOitapg9

2022-11-08 18:34:34 @origincanada @evecitizen36339 @mocoband @LongCovidAdvoc They're just mad that Bertoletti made fun of the jargon salad used to con them—they can't tell the difference between jargon salad and scientific disagreement, with respect, as between Altmann and Bertolletti.I appreciate scientists who inform on social media despite the abuse.

2022-11-08 18:30:07 RT @Ed_Miliband: Yesterday I met Mona, the sister of Alaa Abd el-Fattah, a British citizen imprisoned in Egypt for posting on social media.…

2022-11-08 18:28:02 Video: UK very pro-mitigation Indie Sage immunologists about Twitter claims on T cells."[Labs globally] counted lots of T cells.. Never really seen evidence for covid infection knocking down your T-cells in any kind of ongoing way.. [Not a thing] unless very severely infected." https://t.co/6hSdsUnsPU

2022-11-08 18:04:04 RT @nicohaeringer: The German pavilion event with @sana2 is packed.Many people are trying to follow with the live stream, because they're…

2022-11-08 17:09:41 RT @CelineLST: How come the Egyptian authorities have still not realized that the more they wait, the worst it will get for them. Just #Fre…

2022-11-08 17:00:09 RT @zeynep: @origincanada @mocoband They’re both immunologists, clearly with high respect for each other. Actual scientists debate, discuss…

2022-11-08 16:56:28 @origincanada @mocoband They’re both immunologists, clearly with high respect for each other. Actual scientists debate, discuss and move forward with evidence. I’m not making anything more than pointing this, occasionally and hence the multiyear campaign to lie about me. It’s hard to admit being conned. https://t.co/5DgcIItB6l

2022-11-08 16:46:51 @Jody_Houser Thank you!

2022-11-08 16:43:38 RT @siobhan_ogrady: The biggest press gaggle I’ve seen by far at COP27 has been for @sana2 https://t.co/231nMFSkJv

2022-11-08 16:42:09 @sarapod07

2022-11-08 16:20:03 This ongoing tragedy. So heartbreaking. What day and time is the #Cop27 photo-op? Will Alaa Abdel Fattah be dead by then? https://t.co/WqUle7ADx3

2022-11-08 16:10:37 @ofer_n @x3r0gxx Anyway, it's been nonstop from them for more than a year now. It's Twitter for you. But they are fairly isolated in their echo chamber (and fairly irrelevant, to be frank, and not much help to patients from anything I can tell) so I rarely even see it now. Hence I commented.

2022-11-08 16:08:48 @ofer_n @x3r0gxx There is a case from the same crowd: they took a 2021 tweet of mine where I *raise* concerns about Long Covid, whited out half of it and made it look like opposite, and then claimed I was a minimizer. It's sociologically amazing. They have time on their hands, but not much else.

2022-11-08 16:07:21 @ofer_n @x3r0gxx Here's my article on the ME/CFS and Long Covid protest—I spent a lot of effort to document post-exertional malaise, the invisible part of their illness.Not looking for kudos, it's a privilege to do this work. But the idea I'm dismissing LC is nonsense. https://t.co/jQjwKeXC4q

2022-11-08 00:32:41 @johannhari101

2022-11-07 23:58:13 @sarabjustone @ManvBrain I think that would greatly help the understanding. It is baffling till you start researching it, but then the evidence really piles up quickly.

2022-11-07 23:54:42 @CelticStoic Of course. I’ve done a lot of research on this topic, and wanted to make sure all that knowledge wasn’t ignored. So many people are suffering and the specifics of the illness are little known.

2022-11-07 22:16:38 @davidtuller1 @julierehmeyer @NYMag We worked at length with my editor to get the most succinct, precise description of PEM. He asked do you want to put the name, too? I said we’ll get letters from people who will learn, for the first time, the baffling symptoms they’re experiencing has a name. Sure enough, we did.

2022-11-07 21:55:30 @AaronTeasdale @julierehmeyer @NYMag There’s some interesting unpublished details about the Incline and nearby outbreaks (there were three). I’m trying to chase a few down. It’s genuinely very interesting.

2022-11-07 21:50:55 RT @RamyYaacoub: As this is being tweeted, it has been almost 34 hours since British-Egyptian activist @alaa had his last drink of water, m…

2022-11-07 21:47:18 @shepherdreports @ManvBrain Especially since the patient community tries even potentially dangerous things, because they’re so desperate, and pretty much everyone I talked with tried GET. (I have talked to a very large number of people recruited through various methods over many months.)

2022-11-07 21:44:57 @AaronTeasdale The answer above was a response to them trying to troll. Nothing to do with genetics. (You would have to scroll up to see, if you want to waste time).

2022-11-07 21:43:16 @AaronTeasdale There’s a weird bunch of people who have been obsessed with me for years. Nonstop. Constantly lying. Anyway, I ignore them because they’re irrelevant though harmful to actual patients. I saw them trolling a real scientist &

2022-11-07 21:40:46 @AaronTeasdale Thanks. I’m not at all talking about genetics. What happened here is these folks are mad at the initial tweet because it exposes someone using jargon salad to fool people. So they started trolling the scientist and I have objected. That’s all. Now they’ll lie about me. The usual.

2022-11-07 21:37:49 @AaronTeasdale @julierehmeyer @NYMag I'm convinced that, among other things, there's been too little written about the whole topic, even before the pandemic, given its obvious importance and the needs of the patients, but also given how scientifically and medically *interesting* and eye-opening it is.

2022-11-07 21:35:02 @AaronTeasdale @julierehmeyer @NYMag I've literally read hundreds of papers by now, and have learned a great deal of history and I'm interviewing some people from the past few decades, too now. (Incline outbreak is especially interesting). But what you are suggesting is a different topic, could be useful to others.

2022-11-07 21:32:06 @AaronTeasdale @julierehmeyer @NYMag I learned a lot on all those things, especially the history and the research, etc. There's a whole other (less important) debate about prevalance, but Twitter obviously isn't a place to talk about statistical details. But I can maybe help edit patient-to-patient advice?

2022-11-07 21:29:09 @AaronTeasdale @julierehmeyer @NYMag The first draft of my initial piece was 20K words. With the help and sage advice of my editors (on what length will get read in such a broad outlet), we condense stuff to (pretty long) for NYT but much shorter than what I'd want to write. I'd be happy to try to help, though.

2022-11-07 20:46:23 @HerbertoDhanis @walidgellad A hypothesis may be plausible. The question, as always, is if *this* particular study design can show it either way, a question causal inference. Perhaps more details will be revealed through the peer review process. Fine. But as it stands, I don’t see how that can be concluded.

2022-11-07 20:41:43 RT @jakescottMD: What would many experts be saying if this study looked at hydroxychloroquine instead of Paxlovid? Or ivermectin?They’d s…

2022-11-07 20:28:34 RT @FreedomForAlaa: It’s unthinkable that Alaa’s mother has spent the whole day in front of a desert prison trying to get a basic proof of…

2022-11-07 20:28:19 @julierehmeyer @NYMag Totally agree.

2022-11-07 19:26:07 @winstoncb @awgaffney @ManvBrain Yeah. They try so many things. If anything, the problem is that, lacking trials, they try things in a less controlled manner than ideal. Many I have met are absolutely very very highly-motivated.

2022-11-07 16:27:42 Above, Alaa talks about how his family worries about his "baby sister." Sanaa was imprisoned for eighteen months—grabbed while waiting in front of Alaa's prison.She has just flown back to Egypt, at great risk, to try to campaign for her brother's life.https://t.co/bQDXG40otB

2022-11-07 16:20:34 RT @greggentry1: @zeynep @NYMag Compare the treatment, in the article, of Mady Hornig, to Jeremy Devine. She - a psychiatrist and profess…

2022-11-07 16:18:47 Thread with NYT essays—including from Alaa's mom, Dr. Laila Soueif.Below, a video I recorded: Alaa recounts how his mom responded to the risks protesters faced during the 2011 Tahrir uprising.She now waits to learn if Alaa will die in prison this week.https://t.co/tRj0M70FW5 https://t.co/7VRfJITpx6

2022-11-07 14:38:08 Rapid, huge effort on treatment trials—also informs basic science.Deep phenotyping—expensive but need for biomarkers.Integrate ME and LC research—stop reinventing wheels, follow up leads.Mass wearable data from 2020-2022—can it replace/augment CPET?https://t.co/vFLOZEFJR5

2022-11-07 14:10:42 Finally, it was implied mine is just patient advocacy.But some of the (Twitter) patient community really disagrees with some of my conclusions on prevalence studies' quality.It's not "repeat what patients say" without research, but that it's important to do that research.

2022-11-07 13:58:38 While substantive disagreements are one thing, I think above assertions were just wrong.ME is underfunded, many patients do try GET, are highly-motivated to try everything, many examples of athletes, mountaineers etc. who now can't walk for 10 minutes, clear virus before/after.

2022-11-07 13:54:26 Forget fearful of trying stuff, my experience researching ME/CFS and Long Covid, is that, lacking better options due to the chronic underfunding of treatment trials, some patients are *desparately* trying even dangerous things, a la early HIV communities that tried everything.

2022-11-07 13:51:04 Also, GED and CBT are just not what many, many experienced, evidence-based clinicians I interviewed ever said were "only" tools in their toolkit.There are many drugs/treatments to help relieve symptoms that are routinely used. Yes, they should be trialed! (See lack of funding).

2022-11-07 13:48:40 This was concerning to me.First, patients TRY everything. Even browsing the forums or interviewing a few would make that clear. They try so many things.They definitely try graded-exercise in large numbers, and stop often long after it makes them worse.https://t.co/lrn1FV4IxD

2022-11-07 13:45:30 If patients resist something harmful, it's not "oh they're irrationally afraid".Replies are full of people who did risky, dangerous things—till they got a virus.WHO, CDC, NHS now agree with them.LC and ME clinicians could easily have addressed this. https://t.co/zHEQ7O5DRg

2022-11-07 13:35:59 Currently, it's up to $17 million a year, recent uptick. Still very little, and again, a tiny fund compared to diseases with much lower prevalence.The idea that ME research hasn't been historically, deeply underfunded compared to disease burden or prevalance is simply not true.

2022-11-07 13:33:53 NIH, till recently, put $5-6 million a year to ME. Especially in the US research context, that'll do very little.I personally had *two* separate ~$500K grants to survey a small number of middle schools and to analyze the data. No expensive lab equipment. 20% of all ME funding.

2022-11-07 13:29:16 For example, ME research has been historically very, very underfunded. It was a few million per year till recently. I spent months tracking that billion. Most of it is in an observational study, trials will start *next year*, no deep phenotyping funding. https://t.co/AV4FTycMSb

2022-11-07 13:26:28 I hadn't tagged the @NYMag author to avoid personalizing, but he responded, and based on his statements, I now think, beyond the substantive disagreement, author was genuinly not up to date with either research or history on ME, post-exertional malaise and biomarkers/treatments.

2022-11-07 13:20:01 @did_40 I read all those papers. Those percentages are based on LC clinic samples or people screened for exercise tolerance already. Therefore they’re not at all representative. But yes, some portion on LC clearly qualifies as ME based on syndrome overlap. It’s clearly less than 46%.

2022-11-07 12:21:33 #COP27 is underway. Egypt’s government clearly understands the few statements made by world leaders are performative, without the pressure these leaders could easily apply.Unless something changes, Egypt’s most well-known political prisoner will die during their photo-op week. https://t.co/g44HpDysYX

2022-11-07 04:39:08 @ManvBrain Have you talked to patients? How many? I’m curious. They try so many things it’s almost hard to believe. Their lives desperately revolve around trying many, many things and they could tell you their GET stories. Because many tried that, too. You should update your piece.

2022-11-07 04:36:29 @ManvBrain You’re still wrong. The patients *do* try many things. GET doesn’t have demonstrated efficacy for those with PEM, but they almost all try it anyway but it worsens their condition. Your piece is at least a decade out of date—and that was wrong for those with PEM a decade ago, too.

2022-11-07 04:17:28 RT @helayoty: #FreeAll #FreeThemAll #COP27 https://t.co/as4Dpo29JN

2022-11-07 02:25:52 @loscharlos @Itisallacademic Where did you get that? See the article I sent above which also covers viral load and persistence as a key hypothesis. Again, I think you’re misreading the sentence.

2022-11-06 00:26:31 RT @amandakhurley: Pressure on Rishi Sunak and other leaders attending #COP27 is mounting to secure the release of pro-democracy activist A…

2022-11-06 00:20:25 RT @jayvanbavel: “The reliance on advertising by so much of our digital public sphere — Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram and Twitter —…

2022-11-06 00:15:56 @Peckiconis No contest https://t.co/FqxmadKaW7

2022-11-05 23:56:46 @tkpwaeub I do! So many 20k step or many miles of biking days lately!

2022-11-05 23:54:29 @EerkeBoiten

2022-11-05 22:48:00 @RadioFreeTom @dcherring Okay I finally read this. It’s a good piece! Dave is smart as usual. I don’t think it’s about the same topic I was writing about, though.

2022-11-05 19:17:00 @aburisotto https://t.co/FqxmadKaW7

2022-11-05 19:16:35 @JonMurray Nobody likes them, best I can tell. Actually everyone seems to hate them.

2022-11-05 19:06:03 I meant great weather for the spectators! Best of luck to the runners who prefer it cooler! I.. will cheer you on. https://t.co/QQ8zLDK9Bl

2022-11-05 18:58:37 @jerkob

2022-11-05 18:52:06 @j_g_allen They don’t know any of this is happening, more likely?

2022-11-05 18:25:01 @elisegarton I've seen them at mile 20+!!! They just smile and keep running! I feel like reporting real life deep fakes lol.

2022-11-05 17:54:29 Hard to imagine better weather for tomorrow’s NYC marathon that ends in Central Park. Here’s reflections on a theme—autumn water reflections.(Yes, yes I will go cheer on the runners tomorrow but they appear to be so comfy even after having run 20+ miles! All smiles and waves). https://t.co/O49lX8tChC

2022-11-05 16:12:53 RT @prosonf: Very interesting thread. Being facepalmed by Musk shouldn't make us defend ad financing of platforms

2022-11-05 16:08:29 There's a lot of reporting on how terrible it all is, so I guess people who aren't on it at all don't get why everyone doesn't just leave?Need more reporting and explaining of why and how they matter, why nostalgia isn't an answer, and why making it all better should be a goal.

2022-11-05 16:04:09 Every time I write about any platform, a lot of commentary is essentially "I don't use it, what's the big deal. Just quit".I understand why many think that, but we need better explanations of why and how they matter. This is not like saying "go buy a different brand of shoes".

2022-11-05 15:23:58 Are all the world leaders going to show up at #COP27, while political prisoners such as Alaa Abdel Fattah, imprisoned for years for a retweet of an article about torture, die in prison during their photo ops?Or will they ask for some gestures, at least?https://t.co/xRvxozZqcX https://t.co/jpSizmjjkI

2022-11-05 15:16:30 @jndlr I've been asking for this for years, kept getting promised it would happen!, and it is such a huge deal, and would do so much to help make so many journalists and dissidents around the world safer. Alas.

2022-11-05 14:57:06 We get detailed reporting on the latest emojis on the slack of Twitter, the company, (I read all that, too but here as a comparision to what's missing), ...but fairly little reporting on how extremely influential Twitter, the platform, is on journalism.https://t.co/ECFuVSmVvP

2022-11-05 14:43:36 @apsmunro Yep!

2022-11-05 14:27:14 I don't even say leave all platforms. Obviously, people use them for many reasons, some of which are great. I want them to be better for us.But it's fascinating how little ordinary people understand Twitter's role in shaping so much of journalism.Also Tiktok to teen culture.

2022-11-05 14:12:47 @supersetgreg You can ignore Facebook now, as a journalist, and for many communities. It wasn't always like that.I don't see how new journalists can ignore Twitter, when their whole field seems obsessed with it.

2022-11-05 14:03:47 Hoo boy, comments open on my NYT piece on Twitter and ad-financing.~Top comments:"Wait, what do you mean journalists are heavily-influenced by Twitter?""Why don't they just leave?""Twitter influences journalism??"Readers, do I have news for you.https://t.co/A9jWzlf9UB https://t.co/YkUZ5C92IV

2022-11-05 12:44:31 RT @piscosour: Un punto importante de @zeynep: el problema de las redes sociales que tenemos no es técnico. No es un problema de moderación…

2022-11-05 12:41:41 @stratosathens

2022-11-05 03:09:01 @zcutlip

2022-11-05 01:59:18 RT @siobhan_ogrady: When world leaders arrive in Egypt for COP27, they will have to dance around a subject the govt here would prefer not t…

2022-11-05 01:43:13 @angelvshannon @mackenzian @AFairch

2022-11-05 00:09:18 @marcararc @elonmusk @nytopinion

2022-11-05 00:07:48 RT @jerryiannelli: Fun to think about how much harsher the press would be on Gannett if Gannett itself did not own a large portion of the n…

2022-11-04 22:57:54 So if we’re asking for the moon. How about end-to-end encrypted DMs @elonmusk?I asked for this from Twitter leadership for years and kept getting told it was “on the roadmap”. This is crucial to safety of dissidents and journalists globally. Maybe Twitter can finally ship that?

2022-11-04 22:50:40 @alexgibneyfilm

2022-11-04 22:09:48 RT @jarango: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradation of digital social media is wishful…

2022-11-04 21:29:32 RT @linseymarr: Lots of influenza-like illness (ILI) going around. I've had a lot of students miss class with confirmed flu over the past f…

2022-11-04 21:11:43 @JamesGleick We have so little transparency from either YouTube, Tiktok, Facebook, too. He may well run this to the ground, who knows? But the business model is often in the driver seat more than the personalities, and I wanted to focus on that, not the "main character" dynamics that's on rn.

2022-11-04 20:57:37 @wheatonsimis

2022-11-04 20:05:45 @ImpactForward

2022-11-04 19:21:21 Also, let me put this great must-read here. This isn’t an easy transition. It never could be. https://t.co/0KGyh3CQ6x

2022-11-04 19:07:24 RT @y_sarfati: Western governments need to show the slightest backbone and pressure Egypt to #SaveAlaa #FreeAlaa

2022-11-04 19:00:30 Let me just put this here. All this is a direct result of the role ad-financing plays in financing major internet platforms and digital media.Whatever people think of Musk shouldn't make us forget this underlying reality. https://t.co/YugwBMtOMJ

2022-11-04 18:58:37 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is the key point right now. The rest is theatre. #FreeAlaa

2022-11-04 18:57:26 @codinghorror @Carnage4Life @elonmusk But they don't demand an end to the quite unethical surveillance infrastructure that helps their ads be better targeted, for example. They may, indeed, be concerned about some downstream excesses, but can we also focus on their upstream causal negative contribution to all this?

2022-11-04 18:54:07 Ad-financing helped fuel this avalanche — this massive surveillance infrastructure, the design and algorithms to increase "engagement", many who exploit all this — and then we beg advertisers to please maybe kindly help negate some of the worst excesses.Not a great model.

2022-11-04 18:50:07 @C_Lepkowski @elonmusk It's not the same as the predigital era, though, and even then, it wasn't harmless. The massive surveillance and demand for engagement at scale (since each ad is worth so little) is not great, and back then, those products were gatekept in different ways. Not so anymore.

2022-11-04 18:33:47 I'm not a fan here —his "pedo guy" tweet was him responding to me about my oped criticizing him about the cave rescue stuff, and that wasn't a fun week— but I think we should try to think beyond the person in these moments.Previous Twitter wasn't free. Ad-financing is not free.

2022-11-04 18:28:50 Also, I have Twitter Blue and I can't even search my bookmarks. Launched a year ago.Verification is good for the ecology, not always the user, so not best target for monetization, but would it be that bad if Twitter maybe kinda ever shipped something useful and charged for it?

2022-11-04 18:25:47 I get"main character" focus, especially with all his antics, but let's not miss the bigger dynamic? I've great respect for many people who were on the Twitter safety team, but their work was trying to stop an avalanche.That avalanche is very much tied to the ad-financing model.

2022-11-04 18:18:11 New from me, a plea: focusing so much on @elonmusk shouldn't lead us to defend advertiser-financing of platforms, which is neither free nor healthy.Can we remember what ad-financing helped fuel on the (pre-Musk) Twitter, Facebook, Tiktok or Youtube?https://t.co/PJsC5Xc0Vn https://t.co/R4QgeHUH8k

2022-11-04 14:57:30 RT @davidakaye: this is all the @StateDept has to say about @alaa? it's weak &

2022-11-04 11:43:37 RT @Monasosh: When it is put like that .. you see the full irony of Sisi's methods"British human rights defender Alaa Abdel Fattah is abou…

2022-11-03 23:45:57 (Yes, deleted and fixed typo.)

2022-11-03 23:43:36 So beyond regular margin of error, there are issues like correlations between responding and political views—a current problem weights cannot solve.So we already don’t know, also we don’t know how much more off the polls maybe beyond the expected statistical intervals.¯\_()_/¯ https://t.co/GGPxqTl28v

2022-11-03 21:47:35 https://t.co/OCfar8YL8j

2022-11-03 20:39:42 RT @techpolicypress: On Elon Musk’s Vision of Twitter as a Hive Mind @elonmusk says Twitter can be thought of as a “collective, cyberneti…

2022-11-03 20:15:17 “How often do the parent companies of Fox News and MSNBC team up?” https://t.co/Kc7O3vnrDh

2022-11-03 19:26:59 RT @GEsfandiari: Iranians are still protesting despite a brutal crackdown that has left more than 250 dead. This was earlier today in Kam…

2022-11-03 18:45:01 RT @carlheath: What an excellent and insightful thread, on the topic of network complexity and human collective action. And Elon. And Twitt…

2022-11-03 14:44:07 World leaders have enormous leverage in this situation, as Egypt depends on foreign aid, trade and tourism, and is about to host #COP27.Real pressure — more than tweeting — should be able to result in some minor gestures, including the release of Alaa. https://t.co/ODdP55JtJK

2022-11-03 13:01:21 @BenMazer Huh. According to the chart, vaccines were more important in areas of high poverty, likely because the *wealthier* unvaccinated had means of protecting themselves (work from home, order in, etc.) compared to the poor unvaccinated, for whom vaccines reduce such disparities more.

2022-11-03 12:37:54 Good to see media interest, but it's the world governments that must press Egypt to, at least, undertake some gestures for political prisoners before #COP27, including letting Alaa Abd El Fattah fly home to UK—he may well die during the summit otherwise.https://t.co/tNDoBJSkUA

2022-11-03 12:27:42 Yes.It's clear from how we found out about the Taiwan case that there is massive underreporting of lab accidents and/or lack of proper safety precautions that go unfixed until something that can't be denied occurs. Kudos to Taiwan for disclosing.https://t.co/nrYe5Blb7L

2022-11-03 12:24:11 The *only* reason we know of the Taiwan lab BSL-3 infection is it had zero Covid then, and we test for COVID, so they got suspicious of the outbreak, tested the sequence, confirmed and responsibly disclosed.If it wasn't something you didn't know to test for, you may never know. https://t.co/4pG1maAFFZ

2022-11-03 12:19:14 Correction! More than one SARS-CoV-2 lab-acquired infection.Taiwan had disclosed their BSL-3 leak (though it was detected *later* by testing, after person was out and about).Seems China had an undisclosed one, came out through FOIA emails. Missed that. https://t.co/mS6wY0GVcX

2022-11-03 12:08:04 A map of *known* laboratory-acquired-infections till 2016.For mundane pathogens, this may not matter.(Not so for pandemic potential ones.)The first CDC survey on this showed it was always the later *test* that found it. Nobody had reported an accident.https://t.co/oWBKOMZBQC

2022-11-03 11:18:52 RT @Beltrew: Latest news:

2022-11-02 22:25:03 RT @kemc: Two writers left at what was once a formidable statewide newspaper in Montana, one that had about 45 staff journalists at its pea…

2022-11-02 18:48:25 @GoelShilpa

2022-11-02 18:47:18 @nategadzhi @jilliancyork Heh

2022-11-02 17:33:33 Mara on lab safety.This below is with *known* accidents. Many accidental lab infections aren't recognized in real time, but long after-the-fact by testing—if it is something one tests for. Multiple such incidents with SARS, and with SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan.https://t.co/vWUnqBVycY https://t.co/Z5qZK4xHUS

2022-11-02 16:04:25 @togelius I was an associate professor at UNC, and let's just say I wasn't in a hurry to apply for a promotion with all the paperwork! Columbia tenured me as full, whew, so I guess I won't be a perpetual associate prof, as might have seemed likely, lol.

2022-11-02 15:38:49 @andrew_croxford @dylanhmorris Much has been said on the (obviously there) harms of contrarianism in media, but clearly there's a huge premium in scientific publishing in "here's something unexpected" track. (I mean, the epi has already made it clear it is, at best, a marginal issue but go on). Humans like it.

2022-11-02 14:44:50 @JenniferNuzzo Yeah, we may never know is totally reasonable. It took decades for us to get confirmation that 1977 pandemic was, indeed, likely a well-meaning vaccine trial that went wrong—reporting is scientists at the time kept quiet, fearing flu cooperation with China/USSR would be damaged.

2022-11-02 14:35:20 Same, same with Singapore where "immune-evasive" in (meaning antibodies in the lab) XBB have been dominant. Cases still on the way down, very few severe cases, 99.7% is "asymptomatic/mild".Lab/in vitro studies alone are obviously not very informative in this immunity landscape. https://t.co/gtaOHaYPwQ

2022-11-02 13:29:06 15 Nobel laureates sent a letter urging world leaders not to show up at #COP27 without demanding at least a gesture on political prisoners—it would be very little, but at least something.Alaa may well die during the summit, photo ops notwithstanding.https://t.co/BeA1eQu0ue https://t.co/zumy9O3IgT

2022-11-02 05:35:05 RT @erenbali: This thread is worth $8

2022-11-02 05:06:34 “Women who were offered the vaccine at ages 12 to 13 had an 87% lower risk of cervical cancer than those who were not offered the vaccine at the same age. Their risk of an abnormal Pap smear, a screening test that detects signs of potential cervical cancer, was lower by 97%.”

2022-11-02 05:04:57 “It’s an incredible achievement to have, first of all, got [vaccination] rates that high among girls 12 to 13 years old. You can see the amazing results of that, almost eliminating a very common and invasive cancer”.Not happening the same rate in the US because of anti-vaxxers. https://t.co/rTKR7Nm11Q

2022-11-02 04:23:49 An outright lie to suggest HPV vaccine doesn’t prevent cancer, one that will get will people killed. https://t.co/gDK7Mp3GiH https://t.co/bSz82FFcEQ

2022-11-02 04:12:21 This is such a little things world leaders could push for. https://t.co/ge57ipbIHK

2022-11-02 03:21:10 RT @pogo15: This is important

2022-11-02 02:11:48 RT @walidgellad: When you study people who have a positive PCR in an electronic health record, you are selecting a specific group of Covid…

2022-11-02 01:56:14 @dylanhmorris @ENirenberg @notdred @md_wallach @jallepap

2022-11-02 00:21:31 RT @ccarter84: What's wild is how little coverage this is getting

2022-11-02 00:08:15 @GeneticsMike7 @mikeydoubled @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk Also we didn’t get a totally random novel virus, we got one related to the one we have been poking around and experimenting on for the past decade, fearing it may launch a pandemic, in a city with such labs. That’s not proof! Could be a coincidence. But can’t calculate this imo. https://t.co/nla6bwIx4C

2022-11-01 23:59:24 @mikeydoubled @GeneticsMike7 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk We already had a research-associated pandemic, one of four in molecular biology era, and also having a novel pandemic come from a virus family that *almost* caused a pandemic and then we launched a large research program about, at a minimum, makes the question important.

2022-11-01 23:57:30 @GeneticsMike7 @mikeydoubled @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk At best, SARS happened through spillover and then we went around with a large research program in SARS-like viruses, poking in caves and many experiments, and SARS itself escaped from labs many times (without us knowing) would change those odds. (Not saying it happened that way).

2022-11-01 23:52:32 @GeneticsMike7 @mikeydoubled @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk That is not how you assess the likelihood of an event that’s already happened though. There’s a conditional probability here, especially since pandemic are rare events. Spillovers may be routine, but they don’t routinely turn into pandemics. Can’t calculate odds like that.

2022-11-01 23:38:39 @HL3133 Oh come on. China has gag orders on everything, not proof either way. Scientists may be touchy about regulations or questions about their field, that doesn’t suggest they are covering up something they know to be true. This stuff isn’t proof of leaning. We don’t know is honest.

2022-11-01 23:35:43 @dirtylib666 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk So even if China’s data was good-faith and full (and it is not), you can’t conclude from the first known outbreak where the origins a month or two ago were. The paper doesn’t claim to do so either, media should report better.

2022-11-01 23:34:49 @dirtylib666 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk It’s been long reported, including by the NYT, that China did not allow docs to report non-market cases, we aren’t sure how long. Also, even that paper clearly says it cannot establish where the epidemic started—likely October-November. The cases from then aren’t disclosed.

2022-11-01 23:32:35 @mikeydoubled @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk Lab-acquired infections are also boringly routine (that’s not proof either). Ralph Baric, an actual eminent coronavirologist, says you can’t tell engineering unless you have lab records. And we don’t. Yeah, the other path also plausible. That’s what I mean. Can’t know for sure.

2022-11-01 23:30:40 Btw, my view on the Vanity Fair piece. Some have questioned it, the questions seem to have validity (I can’t assess, not a Mandarin speaker.). But even if it held up or got retracted, it wouldn’t be proof *either way*. We don’t know, and may never know unless China changes. https://t.co/vBn7fJQTtb

2022-11-01 23:27:57 @dirtylib666 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk Look up “not missing at random”. The cases aren’t just underascertained.

2022-11-01 23:27:28 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk We don’t know, we may never know unless something major changes in China, but since we are even asking the question, and since all of these paths are plausible, how about we focus on trying to prevent all future potential paths, seems both credible and smarter to me.

2022-11-01 23:26:31 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk That has been happening all around by proponents and opponents of all theories, imo. Even taken at face value, all you’d know is the lab was under pressure and maybe had some safety issues? Both are already well-documented to be true, but they are not proof by themselves.

2022-11-01 23:24:09 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk The error, and that is a big error in my view with long-term consequences, has been to try to assert we have any more certainty than can be supported at an evidence, in a situation where the party that would be investigated is clearly not cooperating with the investigation.

2022-11-01 23:23:11 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk By February 2020, we knew there was a mid-December outbreak at a market which likely sold wildlife but also the epidemic started earlier, and there were two labs in the city working on bat viruses, one a few hundred yards from that market. And we know China isn’t cooperating.

2022-11-01 23:17:54 @chrislhayes @JeremyKonyndyk Even if it held up, it wouldn’t move the needle towards any more certainty. All options remain on the table because nothing has been decisively shown, proven or ruled out. That’s where it’s been the whole time, likely won’t change unless China changes, and cooperates.

2022-11-01 23:10:44 @MckinneyRufous @nytimes @MEActNet @ThereseARus @hope4pwME

2022-11-01 21:51:26 So one of my favorite Central Park moments is how, at sunset, the East Side can look like it’s aflame from the sun’s rays.You can see the shimmer peaking through the leaves in first picture, and it can be a single building that glows in the last photo (from earlier). https://t.co/A4YlFH1up8

2022-11-01 21:39:37 @Hold2LLC @HumphreyPT As I said, easy for you to say as the victims are other people.

2022-11-01 21:07:02 RT @katestarbird: I agree. As a member of CISA’s advisory committee, we met over the last year &

2022-11-01 01:11:07 @peculiarstarr Someone also gave out books!

2022-11-01 00:57:24 @synopsi No! Actually house by house.

2022-11-01 00:49:05 @davidzombiehume Ikr

2022-11-01 00:41:08 Trading floor takes 10% right? Right?(AKA Manhattan Halloween rocks). https://t.co/GBHOA8aQrV

2022-10-31 20:00:47 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is shattering news. Alaa will either be free in the next days or he will die in prison during #COP27 as the world wat…

2022-10-31 18:32:07 RT @linseymarr: Yes, flu transmission can occur by aerosols, underappreciated. 1) 72% of passengers became ill on plane sitting on runway f…

2022-10-31 17:49:50 RT @lobna: It’s final. @alaa is either free or he dies while #COP27 is in session. #SaveAlaa

2022-10-31 17:45:30 RT @MEActNet: The @nytimes article by @zeynep about the aftermath of @MEActNet's DC protest is in print! Check out our thread for more info…

2022-10-31 17:23:49 aaaw https://t.co/7Qd4oQizcs

2022-10-31 17:22:53 @jbakcoleman @angie_rasmussen Makes sense to me, too. The estimates via various methods are September to November, but the second half of that range looks likelier. December looks implausible, and I'd be surprised with September (detections abroad alone) unless we learn something new. Seems straightforward.

2022-10-31 17:04:35 (perhaps more fun then a whole bunch of econ or evolutionary biology papers on signaling theory, amirite?)

2022-10-31 17:02:10 hang on, catching up on the new twitter business model https://t.co/q7AKonuPWk

2022-10-31 16:42:32 @DeryaTR_ That's the stuff I don't have an opinion on, tbh. I can evaluate the epi — especially since we know that the early disclosed cases were not just underascertained, as normal, but also "not missing at random", as we say in statistics, and a lot of censorship going on.

2022-10-31 16:25:44 @angie_rasmussen It is consistent with an outbreak starting in November, and multiple estimates via different methods put start in September to November. If you get 1.6% with no market connection with first week of January onset, it says disclosed cases are missing a lot. Seems straightforward.

2022-10-31 16:18:57 So we have an update.She's not dead or severely ill, either from COVID or the booster, as the conspiracies were alleging. Mild case, Paxlovid, rebound... https://t.co/eUotU0iXBd

2022-10-31 16:16:15 (Sorry, forgot to add link to the children's hospitals study: https://t.co/Hjr5sRB7Zo )

2022-10-31 16:00:18 Anyway, I'll keep saying: we don't need a definite answer, and we may never get one, but we can move forward. In my view, that is clearly justified, reasonable and forward-looking. And it will stand the test of time.(Trying to avoid the Twitter debate going well so far lol).

2022-10-31 15:56:56 By the way, the six cases in the children's hospital were found retrospectively—that's why they're so indicative of a bigger outbreak earlier.Where's the retrospective testing for Sept-December? Other hospitals? Other provinces? They also didn't test the animals at the market.

2022-10-31 15:51:04 There is a whole range of routine things in trying to establish origins of an epidemic. What we have, instead, has been stonewalling, censorship, limited and untrustworthy info. This applies to all scenarios, including the market.But, we don't need an answer to move forward.

2022-10-31 15:43:16 If you have *six* separate cases occuring in the first week of January 2020 leading to hospitalization, with no connection to the seafood market, there was a obviously much bigger outbreak in December compared to the cases they told us about.WHO SAGO recommendations are good. https://t.co/CT8btAKtZM

2022-10-31 04:10:44 RT @M_FerreiraDVM: Nuanced and informative opinion from @jbloom_lab. Would definitely recommend reading.

2022-10-31 02:47:32 @MarkELindsay I think you nailed this one.

2022-10-30 23:24:31 @kprather88 I hadn't seen this thread (if I had, I'd have replied directly). But there absolutely are weird conspiracies out there, including people claiming she might have died (from the booster or from COVID, pick your theory).

2022-10-30 21:55:04 @ValeBodi @wanderer_jasnah

2022-10-30 21:49:26 @ValeBodi @wanderer_jasnah @theNASEM Thank you! Definitely appreciate the help with the papers as well as the history. Only a tiny amount of the research I end up doing makes it to the final pieces, but I've been trying to learn a pretty large swath of history, and reading lots of papers. Just to be on solid ground.

2022-10-30 21:46:13 @ValeBodi @AaronTeasdale @wanderer_jasnah My (nice, helpful) editor wanted to avoid jargon, like PEM in the piece—for broader readers. That makes some sense but I said some people will hear of the name of the baffling symptom they're suffering from—and being gaslit about—from this. We kept the medical name. Sure enough..

2022-10-30 21:24:33 @ValeBodi @wanderer_jasnah I’m getting emails from people who just learned from my piece that the symptom they’re suffering from has a name, PEM. They didn’t have a name for it. It’s so infuriating. If I hadn’t heard so many stories like that, I would’ve thought somebody was pulling my leg.

2022-10-30 21:20:55 The city is busy enough but the park itself is also bustling. I took these today next to a jazz quartet (busking), an ice skating rink (blasting ABBA!), and the stands for the upcoming NYC marathon.Dense, walkable cities and giant urban parks are such a great combination. https://t.co/xdnblYlRId

2022-10-30 21:14:50 @ValeBodi @wanderer_jasnah Yeah. I think that’s obvious from the first tweet. I was adding.

2022-10-30 21:07:43 @AriSchulman @jbarro Also you can’t really do either well at scale, even if, in theory, you could try do one or the other in small versions. It’s the nature of bigger, faster.

2022-10-30 21:01:46 Indeed. By having the kind of discussion @jbloom_lab is framing in the piece upthread. It’s past time. https://t.co/gNY7qmJWS0

2022-10-30 20:49:47 @wanderer_jasnah This is genuinely sad.

2022-10-30 19:50:19 RT @Monasosh: AbdelRahman Tarik (Mokka), was released a few months ago after YEARS and years of artbitary detentionNews from #Egypt now th…

2022-10-30 17:51:55 Apparently, the latest conspiracy is "where is Walensky" if her illness is mild.Google news can be sorted by date, folks.She's been doing zoom presentations, promoting boosters.I criticize CDC policies all the time, but can we stick to basic facts?https://t.co/swp6G1k5W2 https://t.co/wy6Z5MlFPr

2022-10-30 17:32:45 @BaiYunchang You're very welcome!

2022-10-30 17:26:17 @LisaCositas1 I'm looking into the research/trials side for one of my next pieces (so much to cover in this area, will keep at it, for sure, as best I can).

2022-10-30 17:14:56 RT @CristinaAmpil: A must-read article and thread, IMHO. #virology #oversight “Wars must not be left to generals.”

2022-10-30 17:09:08 RT @FreedomForAlaa: It was deeply moving to have @GretaThunberg's solidarity at the #FreeAlaa sit-in today. A big thank you. For #COP27…

2022-10-30 17:09:01 RT @Monasosh: Our day started with @GretaThunberg visiting the sit in, which ofcourse tells you what an awesome day it has beenSo much l…

2022-10-30 16:40:21 @shasha55 I'm glad it worked out better for you, despite those limits.

2022-10-30 16:39:42 @iambenwis Agree!

2022-10-30 16:04:58 RT @BGrueskin: Musk today is tweeting out a story from the “Santa Monica Observer” … the same outlet that reported Hillary Clinton had died…

2022-10-30 16:04:37 @shasha55 Indeed!

2022-10-30 01:31:52 RT @utopiah: Kathleen Booth 'wrote all the software for the ARC2 and SEC machines, in the process inventing what she called "Contracted Not…

2022-10-29 17:27:13 RT @MassMECFS: The paper version of today's @nytimes. Thank you @zeynep for bringing attention to this way-too-long overlooked illness.

2022-10-29 17:26:36 This is what works. Other methods can and will get phished, with some effort. See rest of threads. https://t.co/hcnRBw7Ocd

2022-10-29 17:18:08 This is an actual crime, from what I understand, yet fake vaccine card spam is rampant on Twitter despite language being so consistent. (So let’s cc:@elonmusk, as this hits the trifecta of crime, spam and why isn’t the code catching all this better?) https://t.co/89hY8A2bu5 https://t.co/eqydgLk8mn

2022-10-29 16:15:30 In today’s @nytimes, my piece on ME (and Long Covid) patients risking their already fragile health to protest to advocate for research.One key part is the devastating world of post-exertional malaise: a poorly-understood symptom that sets them apart, and challenges assumptions. https://t.co/guQQq2f6Lm

2022-10-29 15:02:35 It was wrong to dismiss the looming pandemic threat against a novel virus in early 2020 with "worry about the flu instead" stuff (I railed against it) and it's also wrong to dismiss the obvious, ongoing burden of even seasonal influenza *now*—it's very real.

2022-10-29 14:58:12 @mehdirhasan Influenza has long been an underrated threat among the public, and all the "what about the flu" comparisons in early 2020 to dismiss the huge threat of the looming pandemic really didn't help—similar to "it's not the flu" comparisons made to COVID now, as if flu isn't a big deal!

2022-10-29 14:55:24 @mehdirhasan Absolutely, we should vaccinate our population against the flu much more widely, since it was obviously going to come back. It's possible the elderly might need two shots—just like with COVID, aging caused immunosenescence makes them more vulnerable.

2022-10-29 14:50:47 Also, pandemics clearly produce larger waves of post-viral ailments—this one or 1918 are the examples.But epidemic flu can, and does, absolutely trigger postviral ME in some people (numbers less clear) as well as lengthy, lingering symptoms in more people (well-documented).

2022-10-29 14:45:43 US flu update. After two years of very little activity, statistics indicate an early start to flu season—and a good deal of severe cases.This year's vaccines are a good match to the circulating strain. (They would still help even if they weren't, but even more so when they do). https://t.co/2rQZ2vZXt6 https://t.co/5cM98u1HbW

2022-10-29 14:35:02 @ShariBoxerBaker @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-29 14:34:29 US Monkeypox update. Cases continue to decline. Still almost all men. Zero outside of introductions from elsewhere is quite plausible, if we keep up with testing, vaccinating and informing.So infuriating there's little effort to help people in endemic countries get vaccinated. https://t.co/wFoBVQeLGk

2022-10-29 14:20:30 @adamgurri Lol not at all my intention to suggest anyone else could easily deal with this transition. Recognizing the correct problem would be a good start, though.

2022-10-29 13:55:20 @MarkLevineNYC I have to say, that's been like that for a long, long time. I think there might be some concentrated efforts to troll, now as there's attention, but social media/Twitter has been full of a range of anti-vaccine stuff—from outright lies to nonsensical misframing—the whole time.

2022-10-29 13:38:20 Singapore XBB update. The decline in Covid cases continue.99.7% of cases "asymptomatic or mild".In the last four weeks, 70 people ever in ICU and 44 deceased—in a country of ~six million.Deaths were overwhelmingly from the small percent of people still not fully-vaccinated. https://t.co/hgwwT1z4gF

2022-10-29 13:11:39 RT @ahmed: Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed becomes Twitter’s second-largest investor after Elon Musk

2022-10-29 13:00:36 RT @paulmozur: There’s more. Here’s China’s gov’t asking contractors to build and keep up networks of sock puppet accounts. Because they’r…

2022-10-29 13:00:20 RT @paulmozur: There’s also the police who have detained thousands of domestic Chinese twitter users. Sometimes the police even reach out o…

2022-10-29 13:00:11 RT @paulmozur: For examples about how this works, last year we showed how Chinese state media and embassy accounts on twitter spread YouTub…

2022-10-29 13:00:00 RT @paulmozur: Exhibit two in the trend. Again China has been massively active on Twitter with bot nets boosting state media/diplomat disin…

2022-10-29 12:37:16 @book_learning Indeed. That's the part that makes the disease extra difficult for people to understand. The risk is not minor, as you say, some people have very long-term crashes.

2022-10-29 00:32:08 @vgr heh

2022-10-28 23:56:05 @bilalfarooqui You're gonna dig into that from the code printout? You've seen ML code, right? Have a sense of how/why it works, I assume? "Show me the code" is not in your first seventy steps or so to get at that question.

2022-10-28 23:46:10 @HoddyHarrington @CaseyNewton Yeah, me too.

2022-10-28 23:44:17 "Print the code" doesn't even make sense from the tech view, given machine learning.I mean, if the wish is to have a fun conversation about how linear algebra ended up playing a big societal role, sure. I like such chats! Invite me to them!Not really their challenge though.

2022-10-28 23:40:33 Also, speaking of printing the code, most of the crucial parts are probably machine learning, and best of luck figuring that out from only the code.That's also why "turn over the algorithm!" usually isn't the transparency we need. The real action isn't in the code alone.

2022-10-28 23:38:00 The "what about the code" part is a bit like "if the people only knew" feelings activists sometimes express. Informational flows are important, but in most societies, it's really not about singular information. There's rarely a magic piece of info that would change everything.

2022-10-28 23:34:55 @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-28 23:34:15 So @CaseyNewton reports that Musk asked Twitter engineers to print their code, and be ready for "code pairings" with Musk.As my own quote tweet below, I guess Musk is the next in line to discover the obvious: he's now in a people business, not a tech one. https://t.co/eqQfLQlb8H https://t.co/E7Somg6oex

2022-10-28 21:41:07 RT @kaitlancollins: Pelosi’s office says her husband was attacked by an assailant who “threatened his life while demanding to see the Speak…

2022-10-28 21:22:23 RT @propublica: New: The Wuhan lab at the center of suspicions about the pandemic’s onset was far more troubled than known, documents unear…

2022-10-28 19:04:24 @MEActNet Much gratitude to everyone who participated, despite all the challenges.

2022-10-28 19:00:07 RT @IFEX: #UK Foreign secretary @JamesCleverly urged to act over jailed British–Egyptian hunger striker. via: @guardian https://t.co/jETUV

2022-10-28 18:54:47 Thread, with details on ME, relevant to Long Covid as well. https://t.co/mGAMk52wsV

2022-10-28 15:53:35 RT @dandrezner: Really glad I got vaccinated last month.

2022-10-28 12:22:53 Being ill is difficult

2022-10-28 12:03:47 Emily on Twitter! (Check out her insta above, too!)I have met many brave activists around the world, now Emily too. Best part of my job. I'm honored to have had the chance to try to convey Emily's strength, perseverance and joy in this piece. @hope4pwMEhttps://t.co/9rx7XRWS7t

2022-10-28 11:53:54 @AaronTeasdale @nytopinion Hoping things move much faster, Aaron, and wish you the best.

2022-10-28 11:45:35 RT @hope4pwME: I’m in the @nytimes talking about my experience with #MyalgicEncephalomyelitis thanks @zeynep for words and research and @kh…

2022-10-28 03:06:08 RT @VanessaFuchsArt: This is me- exactly. Except some days, walking upstairs and taking a shower has the same effect.

2022-10-28 00:41:56 @AMoore864 You’re very welcome. I hope things move faster, soon.

2022-10-28 00:28:06 RT @HollinBrav: I’m so proud of these protesters, risking all that they did for greater visibility for #MECFS and #LongCovid. #MEAction ht…

2022-10-27 23:19:43 RT @nytopinion: “Protests can grab the attention of the world, invoking awe through stunning acts of bravery,” @zeynep writes. But the brav…

2022-10-27 23:04:11 RT @cjmaddison: I have come to realize that those suffering with ME/CFS are some of the bravest people to have ever lived.

2022-10-27 22:44:41 RT @DetsNick: Amazing work by ⁦@zeynep⁩! Shows that our #MECFS advocacy is limited by our inherent physical limitation. ⁦I’d love to see pr…

2022-10-27 21:33:57 @julierehmeyer Exactly. Absolutely. We did this over multiple weeks trying to be as careful as possible. But completely aware of the difficult choices. So much strength and bravery there.

2022-10-27 21:01:04 RT @ClayCrosbyLMFT: Thank you to Zeynep Tufekci @zeynep for this @nytimes article. Attention must finally be paid.@MEActNOW #MECFS #Mil…

2022-10-27 20:59:20 @Amy14BV Indeed.

2022-10-27 20:25:43 Hence the need for this, at all levels of advocacy and protest. https://t.co/8EqLAaxeHl

2022-10-27 20:18:20 The topic of ACT UP and early AIDS protests came up a lot.That disease is horrific, but between infection and impairment, there was a period when patients could protest—chain themselves to the WH fence or follow politicians around. ME patients cannot do that. They're too ill.

2022-10-27 19:34:45 RT @butwait: Up &

2022-10-27 19:00:52 RT @karlitaliliana: This is the hardest part about Long Covid. Your body can actually do many things physically but the punishment for “ove…

2022-10-27 17:44:54 RT @shelleyjules: This is an important piece. Friends and family and HCWs most often do not understand what happens in the weeks after they…

2022-10-27 17:22:55 RT @TamraSpeakman: Great article on the recent ME protest &

2022-10-23 22:44:55 @mindstalk Lol. It’s such an obviously ridiculous example of “we have tons of varied, coherent and consistent evidence it works in practice from around the world but can we now have put our names on a study based on lousy data that implies it doesn’t work in theory” that one despairs.

2022-10-23 17:24:48 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho I find it implausible that a broad recommendation is causing older people not to get boosters. That makes no sense. On the other hand, unnecessary confusion about the benefits of boosters as a lot of high profile people bicker about marginal stuff looks a lot more contributory.

2022-10-23 16:58:36 RT @JonMurray: A good reminder to get up to date on your boosters. The US is behind countries like Singapore, which appears to be weatherin…

2022-10-23 16:54:34 (Subtweeting a public health agency of an, ahem, large country: vaccine efficacy cannot be calculated under conditions of widespread population seropositivity by ignoring that variable simply because your data sucks, especially if your hospitalization ascertainment *also* sucks).

2022-10-23 16:51:04 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho We went through this last year...

2022-10-23 16:50:29 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho More focus is fine but.. Diseases travel in populations, there is more to the science and data of immunology than lagging indicators like clinical outcomes (which will come, as they did last year), affinity maturation matters, and lower risk is better even if low to begin.

2022-10-23 16:47:20 Update on Singapore. Despite a wave of cases, very few people in the hospital, let alone the ICU.99.8% of known cases remain mild or asymptomatic (probably higher given underdetection).As we see from around the world, vaccine efficacy against severity upholds remarkably well. https://t.co/Q2p71dJSOw

2022-10-23 16:26:45 RT @GreenpeaceUK: The UK government cannot turn a blind eye to this.@JamesCleverly, will you come out and meet @sana2?https://t.co/EPPx

2022-10-23 16:17:57 @BenMazer @19joho The study even notes it as a "limitation". It's not a "limitation" if you act like a variable that's so central to the question can be ignored just because you have no sensible data. Anyway, this is tragic for the US tbh, but other countries have actual data and studies.

2022-10-23 16:12:50 @BenMazer @19joho If VE against hospitalization fell as low as that paper claims, we'd have had to turn Central Park into a field hospital in Winter 2022 (See Hong Kong data). They don't have seropositivity data, so they ignore it. Meanwhile, we have real life and other countries with actual data.

2022-10-23 03:41:34 @codinghorror

2022-10-22 22:53:04 RT @khalidabdalla: This both breaks and lifts my heart.

2022-10-22 12:37:36 RT @shashj: In light of Hu's removal from the party congress, our piece from last week on Xi's effort to curb the power of party elders. ".…

2022-10-21 19:09:39 RT @NaomiAKlein: An honour to appear alongside the courageous @sana2 - now on Day 3 of her 24/7 sit-in to #FreeAll. #Cop27

2022-10-21 17:17:17 @WomenScienceRFS

2022-10-21 12:50:31 @gmarquez2014

2022-10-20 21:12:03 @NYTimesPR

2022-10-20 19:31:38 @OmicronData @chrischirp Hence my constant complaint, to no avail so far, that lumping of all sequelae (be it from severity or also just ordinary viral sequelae that resolve) under the single umbrella has done the most disservice to the younger, mild/moderate case ->

2022-10-20 19:29:51 @OmicronData @chrischirp Sequelae from severity down, obviously, if for no other reason that severity down dramatically with population immunity (again, age-adjusted as with any virus) but the ME-cluster people are different, not sure their risk of relapse/decline is as much lower, even if lower (unsure)

2022-10-20 19:26:39 @OmicronData @chrischirp Other option is risk keeps going down for almost everyone, on average, in an age-adjusted manner (which, I believe is increasingly clearly indicated by the data), but not necessarily for anyone who's every had the ME version of it—especially pre-vax—even if they had a remission.

2022-10-20 18:31:31 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Does all this goodwill only flow one way? Surely you’re in a position now to require #Egypt to do the UK the courtesy o…

2022-10-20 16:39:50 Monkeypox update for Europe and US: cases are way down. Zero outside of new external introductions looks plausible.US/Europe cases are still almost exclusively in men.Bad news: the world is going back to ignoring the problem in the endemic countries—wrong and shortsighted. https://t.co/yxmlnIzV1i

2022-10-20 15:52:31 @__Chimaera Thank you!

2022-10-20 15:52:13 @seema_econ @SioBhanBhan @voxdotcom @rglenner @mushfiq_econ @EvidenceAction Same!

2022-10-20 15:14:46 @voxdotcom

2022-10-20 14:17:34 @BenMazer @19joho That I mind less than the fact that people still cite the model (that clearly had the incorrect IFR based on what's happened in the actual world since) rather than... what actually happened. A paper that's a model with lots of assumptions should be superseded by real life data.

2022-10-20 14:15:15 A kind profile of my pandemic work, thank you! https://t.co/QAG9ZvDcdq https://t.co/M1gxEOi8d4

2022-10-20 14:11:34 @SioBhanBhan @voxdotcom @rglenner @mushfiq_econ @seema_econ @EvidenceAction Oh wow thank you!

2022-10-20 13:20:40 @emilybell Just learned about this.https://t.co/pXC5pPCa3m

2022-10-20 13:01:39 @TheNickFoy @apsmunro @walidgellad @phealthsean Astonishing to say US health care problems driven by lack of nuance about vaccine prioritization, compared to cradle-to-grave universal health care in UK that’s part of the national identity. I’ve great health insurance and I never know my bills will be or what might bankrupt me.

2022-10-20 12:44:14 @TheNickFoy @apsmunro @walidgellad @phealthsean It’s not messaging nuance or difference, it’s trusted national universal health care that’s primarily delivering the vaccine in the UK. Have you any experience in either country? I’ve family in both. This is astonishing to overlook as key dynamic.

2022-10-20 12:39:56 @apsmunro @walidgellad @phealthsean One can have quibbles or objections to policy. I do all the time. But the objections to targeting are talked about and centered excessively, imo, and the key message is drowned out and that’s actually hurting uptake. We’ve done this before. It didn’t go well. Benefits not heard.

2022-10-20 12:33:31 @apsmunro @walidgellad @phealthsean You guys have an NHS. That’s so different. UK doesn’t run on messaging nuances. Here, half the population didn’t know the booster was updated and getting one can range from easy to a hassle that’s hard to navigate.

2022-10-20 12:26:10 @RahulRajkumar11 @walidgellad @phealthsean Colleges don’t need mandates? I agree. I wrote that myself… after I wrote the key message. And the idea the way to increase the uptake is to have a more limited recommendation and constantly talk about that makes no sense. That’s not what’s holding uptake back.

2022-10-20 12:22:13 @RahulRajkumar11 @walidgellad @phealthsean “The critics” aren’t compelled by some force of nature to center their criticisms and focus on them so much at the expense of what’s actually important. It’s possible to talk more about the vaccines benefits so that’s what gets heard. We saw the tragic avoidable deaths last year.

2022-10-20 01:28:16 RT @CarlosCortes: "En el ecosistema mediático actual mentir atrozmente es lucrativo". @zeynep sobre la condena contra Alex Jones. https://t…

2022-10-19 21:48:28 @BenMazer @19joho That Manaus paper alleged seroprovelance is a model based on, imo, absolutely unrealistic IFR—maybe more understandable at the time, but we know better now, and I'm convinced that what people think happened never happened, and if you look at the epi since then, it's extra clear.

2022-10-19 00:48:54 @Ex_Jersey_Boy

2022-10-18 19:04:02 RT @jodieginsberg: Award winning journalist @mattoosanna stopped for a second time from leaving India. No reason given. This time Sanna was…

2022-10-18 15:02:36 RT @kenvogel: Important @washingtonpost investigation revealing how retired U.S. military personnel &

2022-10-18 14:05:12 @drbrake @amp6 @jvipondmd I think ONS is the best we have, though it also doesn't have a control group (though we have papers showing effect of control group, so can guesstimate), it asks one severity question, at least, and is more solid. (But sadly changed method so can't compare over time now, aargh).

2022-10-18 14:02:28 @drbrake @amp6 @jvipondmd Same issues with many surveys. No question a subset has Long Covid, some quite severe, but... these surveys only ask about lingering symptoms (every respiratory illness has some!), the questions are vague, don't ask severity, conflate everything, and there's no control group.

2022-10-18 13:45:39 RT @dabeard: He's 72. A U.S. citizen. Wrote a few tweets critical of Saudi Arabia after the nation murdered a @washingtonpost journalist.S…

2022-10-18 13:21:23 @jsm2334 @MaryanneDemasi So much numberwang in these weak papers would be avoided if the authors or reviewers took out an envelope and a pencil and wondered "well, what would it look like in real life if these claims were true". Astonished how obvious much of the stuff like this is! And gets through!

2022-10-18 13:19:10 @T_Brautigan No, that is daily cases (though will be an undercount) vs *total* in hospital over time—the hospitalization ratio has been much lower for a while. A trial for severity reduction recently had real difficulty getting statistical power—too few severe cases, thankfully, for stats.

2022-10-18 13:04:42 RT @ORHamilton: By far the most significant piece written on #COP27 and the moral crises that Egypt's hosting throws up has been by @NaomiA…

2022-10-18 13:04:29 RT @zoe_lafferty: Join today's protest demanding the release of Alaa Abd El-Fattah, technologist, writer &

2022-10-18 01:12:27 RT @GEsfandiari: Worrying BBC report suggesting that Elnaz Rekabi who competed without the compulsory hijab in Seoul has been missing. She…

2022-10-17 18:47:54 @meganranney @theNAMedicine @HelenBurstin @SaadOmer3 @JNkengasong @CamaraJones @LizFowler_ @DrMonicaPeek @GaviSeth Congratulations!!!

2022-10-17 17:56:09 @MichaelDaignau3 I strongly suspect ours would look worse, though. It's more like what it could be, if we had more of our act together...

2022-10-17 17:54:17 For clarity's sake: THE US IS NOT SINGAPORE. This wasn't a prediction about the US. Singapore is highly-vaccinated, is rapidly rolling out bivalent boosters, and added protections for the most vulnerable in hospitals and nursing homes with rapid tests, high-quality masks, etc.

2022-10-17 17:02:35 @pbleic There's also South Africa which tragically, has been undervaccinated and but went through Beta, Delta,and Omicron waves, and has good tracking and sequencing (the speed with which they nailed Omicron!). Their current trajectory is quite informative (but often ignored).

2022-10-17 16:55:10 @00Bohr Sure but that's from a while back. Again, I encourage you to check direct and updated sources... This is the situation with Singapore, which is what we are talking about. https://t.co/tvFO2AbgIc

2022-10-17 16:49:27 @noxrosa @kprather88 @mavisclare Yes, 100% but it's been a losing battle trying to get this misinterpratation corrected. By all means, people should avoid reinfection (why would anyone want to be infected with any virus?) but we have actual data on this question, which, anyway, is not studied by this preprint.

2022-10-17 16:47:33 @00Bohr This is exactly why I said to check *their own dashboard*, not pull from secondary data sources which are often lagging or incomplete (because they are pulling from many different countries). See Singapore MOH: https://t.co/1AtglcnNOc

2022-10-17 16:26:04 @Shoq Thank you! I'm not naive about the current realities. Also, along with other people, I was proposing stuff like this when the Democrats had majorities. It wasn't that long ago they had the veto-proof trifecta. Not sure when/what will be feasible but... we should try.

2022-10-17 16:22:01 @cfiesler Thank you! The pandemic has really highlighted even more big data and external and internal validity issues, but the Twitter/model organism stuff remains valid too! I am thrilled to hear the Drosophila point is still circulating. Cheers!

2022-10-17 16:19:26 RT @cfiesler: I've been putting this point from a @zeynep paper on a slide for about six years now. :)

2022-10-17 16:13:48 Singapore has really an exemplary dashboard, with accurate and timely information with detail.They are seeing more cases due to antibody evasion of new variants or antibody waning from vaccine/infection. They're responding, which is good. See dashboard.https://t.co/CwVP4Fjewo

2022-10-08 13:52:32 @peterjomalley @OCanadaKate I don’t think that’s true. You may need to show your vaccination card to verify last date.

2022-10-07 16:56:10 @literaryeric Seems easy enough? Card is mostly drawing by friend/guest, parent writes "donation made to doctors and nurses saving lives around the world in honor of your birthday", kid gains early memory of special day being part of something nice? Kids like being part of bigger things imo!

2022-10-07 16:46:15 @literaryeric Ask if they have a charity they prefer as a donation target, note it in handmade card (even less waste). (Our bday parties usually go to MSF). Small amount but it makes kids participate in something good, together.

2022-10-07 15:57:38 @CodedBias

2022-10-06 20:11:38 RT @LaurenPelley: A thread from a physician (and #Ebola survivor) on Uganda's growing outbreak, which could have "profound regional impacts…

2022-10-06 19:30:28 @BenMazer Hard to do a precise enough adjustment from a single comparison, but clearly that's the direction/rough magnitude of the method change effect. So much of NHS seems to be "let's not spend money" these days, which is unfortunate because they had historical data. Alas.

2022-10-06 19:06:46 @BenMazer I think the new numbers may be more reflective of those in the sample but maybe biasing who's in it? With a single comparison, it's hard to adjust precisely. But the one time comparison implies ~44.7% increase due to method change of shift to 100% remote. https://t.co/ujFFJy5HSi

2022-10-06 19:03:25 @BenMazer The method change sucks because it invalidates over time comparisons.Last month, only 38% from new (remote) method, but it was associated with a 17% increase compared with the contemporaneous old method group (face-to-face).Now it's 100% new method. https://t.co/ld4epEnEEg

2022-10-06 16:47:43 RT @NaomiAKlein: "He has become a skeleton with a lucid mind." It's unbearable. #SaveAlaa #FreeAlaa #Cop27

2022-10-06 16:47:25 RT @thefreedomi: TODAY: Listen to @sana2 and others discuss the ongoing crackdown on dissent in #Egypt and the relationship between climate…

2022-10-06 15:52:56 @chrischirp @OmicronData @origincanada @taipan168 I think the change to remote may elicit more honest responses (skews the numbers up, but correcting a bias) but also change the respondent composition (less affected may be more likely to hangup/quit compared to slamming the door, also skews numbers up but now introducing a bias)

2022-10-06 15:49:31 @chrischirp @OmicronData @origincanada @taipan168 It's so frustrating, though — this change mucks with the best time series source we had (lack of a control group being its one disadvantage) and now have to wait to be able to understand what it means trendwise. (And unlike you, many will share this without noting the issue).

2022-10-06 12:44:49 RT @mamossman: Absolutely.

2022-10-06 02:53:22 RT @hf1: A revolving door

2022-10-05 21:58:16 @Ayesha_Mattu Yeah it’s been so frustrating. I wrote about it before. Now the issue will be quick updating if it becomes necessary. https://t.co/50oT3YdSNw

2022-10-05 19:51:19 @cjmaddison @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis "Let them doubt, it doesn't matter" you might think, but look at the situation. So little progress on concrete things: little movement on treatment trials, no disability let alone ADL support, etc. I think the situation is dire. Anyway, back to writing about those topics.

2022-10-05 19:47:55 @cjmaddison @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis Classic media article: "CDC says one in five" and then case of someone tragically debilitated—but zero context for the CDC number, types, severity, etc. I spend so much time trying to convince skeptics who aren't pure deniers (like some on this site) but can't make sense of it.

2022-10-05 19:43:54 @cjmaddison @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis It's not obvious in the Twitter bubble, but one result of many many media articles that uncritically quote the (very limited, at best upper bound CDC EHR study) "one-in-five" claim has meant I keep having to convince IRL people LC is real even if CDC numbers don't fully add up.

2022-10-05 18:55:29 @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis There are at least four or five separate surveys that show that the pandemic is the top concern for less than one percent of the population! It was so much higher before. That should impact how to think about pushing for progress—more important than Twitter bubble accolades.

2022-10-05 18:52:35 @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis And this matters exactly because the problem is real, significant and urgent — and I constantly see people arguing and going viral (on here) that the numbers are/will be increasing so much that it will be unignorable. Meanwhile, NIH still has launched *zero* trials from RECOVER.

2022-10-05 18:50:34 @smithsj @HerbertoDhanis Indeed. Nobody (here) is arguing Long Covid isn't important or significant—I wrote that at length. But if it's in "one in five" and each infection is an equal risk (contradicting what immunologists like Iwasaki say), the post-Omicron numbers would have had a different trajectory.

2022-10-05 18:39:48 @OmicronData @origincanada @Marc_Veld @smdelic @gadboit Likely will need to wait a few months to establish new trendlines to interpret, which really is a huge shame and it's also a shame so few high-quality surveys are being done anywhere, and ONS latest victim. Should have had them for years, alas.

2022-10-05 18:37:20 @OmicronData @origincanada @Marc_Veld @smdelic @gadboit Increases reporting but also increases bias in who responds since it is easier to hang up on a non-person unless the topic is already important to you, compared to slamming the door—classic tensions in survey design. Sample likely biased bit more one way, responses the other.

2022-10-05 18:22:19 @OmicronData @origincanada @Marc_Veld @smdelic @gadboit Yes, unfortunate loss of attention to/funding from the best (even if imperfect) ongoing survey we had. And very few will bother to note the method change, or evaluate what this means for trend analyses—why bother being careful when going bad kind of viral is an easy option.

2022-10-05 18:20:12 @vplus @jljcolorado

2022-10-05 17:08:48 RT @j_g_allen: The failure to recognize airborne transmission right away was indeed a costly error. Led to things like wiping down ketchup…

2022-10-05 17:07:57 @rcr_pereira @kearnsneuro @Anto_Berto Right, that's not the question. It's about how measurement methods/ease/challenges and internal and external validity questions relate to inference, formation of knowledge and also public discourse. (Or why in vitro nAb studies are so much more common/go viral).

2022-10-05 15:08:54 @kearnsneuro @Anto_Berto Thank you so much! The intersection between measurement (ease, precision, internal/external validity) and knowledge — and then action — is always so interesting! I really appreciate examples across fields. (Comes up a lot in the big data era, but obviously isn't limited to that).

2022-09-30 22:52:38 Yes, the administration should be on this. Meanwhile, maybe getting the word out can be a bit higher priority, especially for people with high media/social media profiles, compared to debating the margins? My piece from earlier this month. https://t.co/t3MEGptuzk https://t.co/8MkACiCRfY

2022-09-30 22:50:10 What a disaster. Half of US adults have heard little to nothing about the updated boosters. Today I learned that ~75+ year-old, highly-educated, health and COVID conscious parents of a friend had zero idea that the boosters were updated, or that they should get them. https://t.co/w45oEvzK7L

2022-09-29 19:46:42 RT @GEsfandiari: Iran has arrested singer Shervin Hajipour who received millions of views for his song about the national sadness and anger…

2022-09-29 17:14:04 RT @larry_levitt: The requirement that Medicaid keep people continuously covered during the public health emergency has increased enrollmen…

2022-09-29 14:41:06 @ABrokenBattery Yeah. I keep wanting someone to do a documentary on the peptic ulcer discovery while patients and key players are still alive. It was much simpler compared to this, and yet it took too long exactly because of this attitude of aggresive, calculated incuriosity and patient-blaming.

2022-09-29 14:31:19 @MECFSNews @ABrokenBattery @caraallieray @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet So, yes, MD do encounter patients who've looked something up on WebMD and are convinced of (likely incorrect) things blah blah but... this video is training for lack of curiosity and prejudging, not sorting through the possibilities of what's ailing a person in front of them.

2022-09-29 14:15:08 @ABrokenBattery Yeah wow. Also, I have a close friend who does suffer from major clinical depression. Some of the advice *incorrectly* aimed at ME folks would be appropriate for her — but if it were delivered like this, she’d probably feel terrible. And this is supposed to be training, ugh.

2022-09-29 14:09:41 @ABrokenBattery @MECFSNews @caraallieray @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet Ugh thank you!!

2022-09-29 13:52:14 @ABrokenBattery @MECFSNews @caraallieray @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet You happen to have the source?

2022-09-29 13:51:58 @MECFSNews @ABrokenBattery @caraallieray @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet This guy is supposed to represent an ME patient??? Working at a pub late into the night, drinking many pints??

2022-09-29 13:45:19 @ABrokenBattery @MECFSNews @caraallieray @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet This guy is supposed to be an ME patient?? What year is that from????

2022-09-29 13:40:41 @TheCrankyQueer I know, so many still. And I’m likely talking more to people on the milder end. Also I talked to people right before since I was there during the prep period too, so I know what their “baseline” felt like. The cognitive slog part of a PEM “crash” is clearly under-communicated.

2022-09-28 18:10:09 @Aelkus Yeah naming the folks is a bit like posting pictures of people swimming in the high hurricane surge with a "Don't Do This!" warning. Anyone who is doing it isn't going to stop with a warning, in fact wants exactly that attention, and no sane person needs a warning really.

2022-09-28 14:14:15 @BillHanage An extra twist here is the number of people with degrees, credentials etc. who are flat-out lying while making really personal, toxic attacks—usually a screenshot with 100% false claim attached to it. I've been kind of fascinated by it (as someone who studied stuff like that).

2022-09-28 14:10:46 @BillHanage Not identical but, during the Arab Spring, Twitter went from earnest and useful if a little confusing to navigate to, well, something not so useful. Ghonim's FB page had been the spark point for the 2011 Jan25/Tahrir wave. Hounded off the platform.(Excerpt from my book). https://t.co/FmemDkLIiG

2022-09-28 13:07:30 @KH_VMD @voxjohsu @MEActNet Seems to be an exceedingly common story, unfortunately. Even now, after all this, the so obvious overlap between a subset of Long Covid patients and ME is not officially recognized. ME researchers can’t apply to LC specific funds even though they’re sometimes further along.

2022-09-28 12:49:02 @nntaleb @aub

2022-09-28 02:53:45 @vijayiyer312 @zdotty @CT_Bergstrom Saw this with airborne transmission too — and some great papers on that have come out: certain things were assumed and then calcified into "we know this" when, in fact, if you dug up the primary documents/papers that were allegedly the basis of this knowledge, it wasn't there.

2022-09-28 02:52:23 @vijayiyer312 @zdotty @CT_Bergstrom Also note how the author describes others who seem "exhausted" by social interaction or exertion, and need lengthy rest afterwards, but don't seem to necessarily have any anhedonia, and declares them to be depressed? Have to look at primary documents. Maybe, maybe not.

2022-09-28 02:32:58 @vijayiyer312 @zdotty @CT_Bergstrom I don't know enough about Darwin's case (yet), but you have to go back to primary documents because people *assume* they know it's depression and then it becomes calcified knowledge. But, well, all this seems more like a description of pacing, not necessarily depression? https://t.co/FRkqScDxrk

2022-09-28 01:43:25 @kimisgubbed I haven’t found a study, yet, but yes have heard so many cases.

2022-09-27 22:07:53 @MECFSNews @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet “The illusion of (false) knowledge”—they had made up their mind and then provided answers. There’s a really similar and strong example in the history of ulcers and bacteria. Marshall, who finally proved it by drinking bacteria-laden broth, used that phrase.

2022-09-27 20:00:55 @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet (Also, the POTS and ME interaction, re:role of exercise and the group composition in the trials).

2022-09-27 19:51:37 @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet Getting too complex for Twitter, but... my guess is that many trials had a range of people, and an interesting meta-review would be to go back to all the articles in the (infamous) Cochrane review etc. and connect the inclusion criteria to effect sizes/directions.

2022-09-27 19:08:24 @Amateur102 @WergildBlake @MECFSNews @ValeBodi @voxjohsu @vijayiyer312 So "melancholia" was what we now think of depression, there's a lot of evidence of benefitting from exercise/exertion, but if "melancholia" was something like ME, it should be quite different—hence would need to check ideally contemporaneous descriptions/letters etc...

2022-09-27 19:04:41 @exceedhergrasp1 @voxjohsu @Dakota_150 @MEActNet Only a few years ago that "exercise phobia" was how things were described — Lancet, major news outlets, etc. — (that I know you know about). The challenge here is that divergent clinical outcomes: if the definitions are muddled, trials will be muddled, metareviews more so.

2022-09-27 18:04:06 @voxjohsu @MECFSNews @WergildBlake @ValeBodi @vijayiyer312 (To be clear: "rest cure" was often also involuntary containment of women not at all seeking to rest, and as with all such things, neurosthenia is a combination of clear misdiagnosis and just plain nonsense, but still, I would want see patient narratives of disease course).

2022-09-27 18:01:16 @voxjohsu @MECFSNews @WergildBlake @ValeBodi @vijayiyer312 Yep, "neurasthenia" was a grab bag, so who knows what got included *but* a "rest cure" was often "prescribed" —"stay in bed even if you can get up"— and that is, of course, counterproductive to most illnesses to do so, except, well.. Individual accounts would need to be dug into.

2022-09-27 17:25:43 @WergildBlake @MECFSNews @ValeBodi @voxjohsu @vijayiyer312 See, for example, pretty clear description of post-viral sequela of influenza for cognitive impairment that lasted months, but resolved, but the same person relapsed decades later for another three months after another (this time mild acute) infection. https://t.co/qJrJe9raDq

2022-09-27 17:13:27 @WergildBlake @MECFSNews @ValeBodi @voxjohsu @vijayiyer312 Somewhat related to "criterion of embarrassment" — it would be very interesting for someone to dig through historical letters, memoirs as well as clinical descriptions from early on, with an eye towards noticing if PEM shows up?

2022-09-27 17:06:58 @WergildBlake @MECFSNews @ValeBodi @voxjohsu @vijayiyer312 Indeed, and historical descriptions are complicated to interpret as shown by medical historians. That said, somewhat unusual, hard-to-believe stuff that shows up in unrelated descriptive artifacts can sometimes be more reliable —less likely to be put in there for no reason.

2022-09-27 16:40:51 @MECFSNews @ValeBodi @voxjohsu @WergildBlake @vijayiyer312 The specific trajectory of PEM as we understand it now is quite distinct, though, and I'm wondering if looking at old histories/cases/documents would find descriptions of it (without naming/recognizing). This tends to be true for some illnesses: you can find it retrospectively.

2022-09-25 16:10:57 @notdred Ugh.

2022-09-25 16:09:20 @HerbertoDhanis Generally true but... many media reports end up completely glossing over these questions, and some of the issues raised are beyond that general framework, and ignoring it doesn't make them go away as others will always notice them — we need to call for more/better research.

2022-09-25 15:57:25 What's the EHR internal validity issue/ascertainment bias issue aside from generalizability? See BMJ response below.This is a known problem with *all* big data EHR studies. Suggesting chart review isn't an attack, it's a good response to a known issue.https://t.co/EIWaBNK1eB https://t.co/0VusnYN7Xr

2022-09-25 14:43:53 @ShaneyWright @LeylaDAsadi @walidgellad @bobepidemiology The problem with obviously implausible estimates is that, outside of Twitter, many smart, otherwise compassionate people silently tune out thinking it’s all hype. Meanwhile there’s great suffering that’s barely covered or is seen as exceptional since clearly it’s not one in five.

2022-09-25 14:41:03 @ShaneyWright @LeylaDAsadi @walidgellad @bobepidemiology I’ve been making suggestions on how to potentially move the needle on Long Covid but nobody in these Twitter bubbles seems to care enough to do much— they just want to type “minimizer” and feel smug? Anyway here’s a piece here from me, more on the way. https://t.co/KtqEDIUBBL

2022-09-24 22:42:49 RT @ORHamilton: Very good to see Alaa being awarded the Electronic Frontier Foundation @EFF's 2022 Award. Nominated by the public and selec…

2022-09-24 18:42:20 RT @katie_thomas: New Investigation: Nonprofit hospitals avoid billions of dollars in taxes. But are they living up to their charitable mis…

2022-09-24 17:58:53 “Prince Andrew” ad spotted from the Hudson bike path in Manhattan. (Photo taken while on a moving bike, sorry).Speaking of: I’d read a literary/academic piece about the “Meghan Markle Derangement Syndrome” in the UK media? Not my issue but was so blatant that even I noticed. https://t.co/4IV3QXeLjB

2022-09-24 16:06:13 RT @FridaGhitis: Iran, Shiraz, Saturday. Women are leading this uprising against repression. Forced hijab is the symbol. Removing it is th…

2022-09-24 15:12:18 @Sebastian_Hols @walidgellad @LeylaDAsadi @bobepidemiology I hate having to say all that, no win here. But the damage from all this isn’t the jerks on Twitter who deny Long Covid — they’re just jerks and often cruel. That CDC number keeps coming up as reason for doubt among otherwise compassionate people—who keep silent and tune out.

2022-09-24 15:10:08 @Sebastian_Hols @walidgellad @LeylaDAsadi @bobepidemiology It’s terrible — in that case, that was research with huge internal validity issues and, at most, established an upper bound, since obviously not every new IC10 code is indicative and there was big ascertainment bias. But got uncritically reported to much damage to the patients.

2022-09-24 13:52:54 @AntibioticDoc I think a lot of trust has been lost by MDs and others denying the clear evidence about airborne transmission and claiming more nuance necessary etc, so it all sounds false to many people — the call for nuance and context was used to deny clear empirical evidence. So here we are.

2022-09-24 13:42:36 @walidgellad @LeylaDAsadi @bobepidemiology Constant convo with otherwise smart, compassionate people: "I read your NYT piece on Long Covid and [some version of] that one-in-five number from CDC... Is all this really real?" Me: "Yes, it's very real, please don't tune it out because some numbers are badly off". On repeat.

2022-09-24 13:39:23 @walidgellad @LeylaDAsadi @bobepidemiology The Twitter bubble seems to think "well, what's a little generalizability misalignment and effect size exaggeration when the threat is real, and the public so unconcerned."What they don't see is the silent doubting and tuning out by people who don't otherwise dive into this.

2022-09-24 13:34:52 We teach internal and external validity limits in the first weeks of methods intro classes. No study is exempt from these two considerations. These are *mundane* points about generalizability and effect sizes.It does NOT mean this population is unimportant, or effects are zero. https://t.co/DcPB0WIU5e

2022-09-24 13:27:00 @bobepidemiology @KasperKepp @OmicronData @origincanada Yeah, high risk population already. (Pointing this out isn’t saying high risk populations are unimportant, just not generalizable for effects or effect sizes.)

2022-09-24 13:25:07 @walidgellad @bobepidemiology And straightforward and yet saying this is… controversial? We teach internal and external validity limitations literally the first few weeks of a methods into class. But a singular study must be treated like it’s exempt? No study is exempt from these two topics.

2022-09-23 23:44:30 @walidgellad They see the jerk/awful Long Covid deniers on Twitter (which exist and are terrible) but not the substantial number of otherwise smart, compassionate people who see some of this process and start doubting it all—but stay quiet. But they’re essential to making better progress.

2022-09-23 23:41:12 @walidgellad Yeah. Just spending time get better context would go a long way. People seem to think parroting an abstract is “science communication.” But that’s not how science works! For any study! Good or bad! Plus Twitter bubble is oblivious to harms of this speed/kerfuffle dynamic.

2022-09-23 23:12:21 @cerephic What happens is someone loses their flimsy paper card? This person has no record in the state (out-of-state) so… no options according to the pharmacy. Can’t get any vaccine.

2022-09-23 23:08:17 More below—see his whole thread— and crucially, as Walid says later, scrutinizing studies is… what academics routinely do, and should continue to do, especially because it’s important.It’s a normal and necessary part of how science works—regardless of the Twittering dynamics. https://t.co/AHBWQkru6a

2022-09-23 22:15:31 @cerephic The pharmacy flat out refused. I get what you’re saying but… yeah.

2022-09-23 21:42:32 https://t.co/l5qHViJakl

2022-09-23 20:32:31 @smh1489 Not me!

2022-09-23 20:29:09 @smh1489 Didn’t work apparently!

2022-09-23 19:30:25 So, I can confirm this and it makes no sense.If someone did not complete the initial two doses, they cannot get the bivalent booster—I'm not even sure what they're supposed to be doing? Seems to be the case as well if someone loses their vaccination card?Why not? Baffling. https://t.co/ZgqLC8FCJk

2022-09-23 18:41:06 @smdelic @Marc_Veld @origincanada @gadboit It's the truth, though. Within science disagreements (which happen all the time, and are fine) vs. pseudoscience is a very important distinction that I'm not about to let go.

2022-09-23 18:36:17 @Marc_Veld @smdelic @origincanada @gadboit Thanks Marc for taking the time to answer questions. Actual scientists are often chased off Twitter, and then the void gets filled with.. a mix of nonsense and factoids that can also be nonsense without context and deeper understanding.

2022-09-23 18:01:50 Speaking of progress, this is great.WHO Long Covid (and ME) clinical guidelines now explicitly (and correctly) define post-exertional malaise and warn about one-size-fits-all exercise, if it is present. (Will circle back to this—Twitter is insufficient) https://t.co/PxjUchk41u

2022-09-23 17:43:09 @Marc_Veld @smdelic @origincanada Also, did you see this from today? https://t.co/vwlT8lV6cB

2022-09-23 17:26:27 Almost forgot, let me put the gift link to my NYT article on Long Covid here. https://t.co/ekqUM0zLkJ

2022-09-23 16:35:41 Again, Twitter feathers get ruffled whenever some papers or its media coverage gets scrutinized, but...That's the job, especially for academics. It's... routine.Academics don't have and shouldn't play by Twitter and/or media (that I'm also part of, as a columnist) incentives.

2022-09-23 16:27:24 Also highly-recommend my colleague Andrew Gelman's blog on statistical modeling and causal inference, with many, many examples of why the topic (and how papers are covered by media) is so important. (Gelman's books are great, too) https://t.co/G5Cl10rIFB

2022-09-23 16:25:01 A book below for people wanting a deep dive into causal inference.For real: I'm trying to convince Guido Imbens (who won a Nobel for his contributions to causal inference/labor markets) to write a public-facing book, using pandemic papers. He says maybe.https://t.co/mWuCXOdNTG

2022-09-23 16:19:46 Second, for folks interested in causal inference, here's a *free* resource. (More coming in next tweet).Causal inference isn't an afterthought. Even if one agrees or disagrees with a study "but here's what it says in the abstract" is no way to cover it. https://t.co/GlkaEtYBFn

2022-09-23 16:17:42 Quick adds. Would be great to have studies with chart review (since EHR have well-known issues). I realize many people aren’t academics and don’t know that academics routinely scrutinize studies for their causal models or their media coverage … because that’s progress! https://t.co/GAs8OiL7d0

2022-09-23 16:05:45 RT @EJohnWherry: Important work @TheBcellArtist Nice paper

2022-09-23 01:03:23 @JDHaltigan @davidemccune @Saikmedi @DrLeanaWen Of course it does. We just have to be careful about the generalizing. I believe that we are doing a disservice to all the categories here, especially to people who are suffering.

2022-09-22 21:06:57 @OmicronData @wanderer_jasnah @origincanada I DO think we owe much more support to the people represented in this study, but four layers of reasons this isn't generalizable: 99% unvaccinated

2022-09-22 20:51:21 And here's the link.At a minimum, people should read all the supplements.See below the characteristics of 99% unvaccinated older cohort that was studied (still can't make sense of why the negative controls shift with each study? Will ask about that).https://t.co/AwQdS6zAwC https://t.co/PHJp4mfzxI

2022-09-22 20:11:04 @informema People are infected with the flu a lot more than that--we just don't test for it. One study that tested everyone found 17% of the population is refinfected twice a year with the flu. That said, Covid is obviously an ongoing real threat, we are only two years into the process.

2022-09-22 19:58:30 Anyone reporting on *any* of these studies, should read the study, read all the supplements, spend some time to ask people who understand statistics and causal inference about what can be generalized to whom and how...The alternative is the (ongoing) destruction of credibility.

2022-09-22 19:54:17 Anyway, this is the third VA study — ignoring EHR issues or the changing negative controls?? — they all show *unvaccinated* infections that led to hospitalizations were terrible for this older male cohort, and elevated few risks even among those not hospitalized. Straightforward.

2022-09-22 19:43:50 @cortneyharding It's definitely a real thing, but what this study is documenting is not the kind of patient we most often read about in newspapers — the young people whose lives are upended. They *certainly* exist, but are a different category than older people with post-hospitalization issues.

2022-09-22 19:35:10 @BenMazer It's not a lesser point tbh imo, but it's a bit baffling and too technical for Twitter but I haven't been able to come up with an explanation of why (third paper this happens now?). Will ask the authors for clarification, would help understand why they'd do this.

2022-09-22 19:16:21 Anyway, case study in how to burn the credibility of institutions, top journals and journalism so that nobody listens to any of it.A small % of the population is stuck on very worried (about 1% in polls but ~90% on Twitter), and most have tuned out—even when they shouldn't be.

2022-09-22 19:08:24 We've had reasonable studies on this, including from Denmark, that neurological sequelae is an issue, at equal levels to an influenza infection, especially for older people, and I think that deserves taking seriously, including understanding the protective role of vaccines.

2022-09-22 19:05:58 That this is an unvaccinated, older, frailer male cohort is before we even get into the issues with generalizing from electronic health records to general population. (Let alone a vaccinated general population).I really believe this kind of onslaught has destroyed credibility.

2022-09-22 19:01:27 If you aren't going to read the supplements and ask a few people before reporting, at least look at the figures? Even among this unvaccinated old, male VA cohort, it's the hospitalized and the ICU that bear almost the entirety of the risk — loss of smell is a standout though. https://t.co/WfuBlYtu9v

2022-09-22 18:58:05 Example of how to be misled.First, I absolutely believe COVID (and flu) has neurological sequelae.But this study is almost entirely pre-vaccine (99%), and the most affected are those hospitalized, not the mild cases, *and* it's an already old, frail male VA cohort. https://t.co/HVjEhB4KTo

2022-09-22 16:17:03 @allhailcomfey @BenMazer Right. But also the other kind exists: very prominent people with "Had an infection/breakthrough why bother with an updated vaccine at all, you probably won't die" as if affinity maturation isn't a thing, and as if vaccines don't do much more than keep you out of the hospital.

2022-09-22 16:08:49 @BenMazer And for the other end of the spectrum, also this https://t.co/7RFg7FwLzM

2022-09-22 16:08:03 @BenMazer I just saw a viral thread literally citing Forbes etc. *ignoring* all actual studies, the global epi curve, the field of immunology etc. to claim little/no immunity from Omicron, all reinfections more severe etc. 20K+ likes. Minaj's cousin's friend had better plausibility.

2022-09-22 15:56:26 RT @TimepDC: "The world observes @Alaa’s desperate hunger battle for freedom, but the state is not budging....Prisoners go on hunger stri…

2022-09-22 15:53:05 @wanderer_jasnah Oh wow, that's the perfect comment on all this.Did you see yet *another* study on those alleged reinfections every month? Every single study and the epi curve vs... "What About Nicki Minaj's Cousin's Friend??" mode on Twitter. https://t.co/ded4cM22Dz

2022-09-22 15:50:27 @BenMazer Fits all the good studies and my real life anectada, but parts of Twitter convinced themselves "Omicron induces no immunity—reinfection every month" (against all logic, data and science) and they now live by RT'ing "Nicki Minaj's cousin friend's anectodes" but for reinfections.

2022-09-22 14:53:48 RT @GEsfandiari: Journalist Niloufar Hamedi who reported from the hospital where Mahsa Amini died, has been reportedly arrested.The reason…

2022-09-19 01:29:39 There is a post-protest briefing as well at 4p PT. https://t.co/OVlRSopcjw

2022-09-19 01:23:28 Alerting journalists/others to this event tomorrow at 12p at the White House asking for better progress for Long Covid and ME/CFS. It’s not easy for these people to show up to protest, so especially important to take notice of it. https://t.co/h9RO5w25Wh

2022-09-18 19:15:59 @zack_subin @Walgreens

2022-09-18 15:24:04 @adam42smith More than two years in, there’s still too little primary reporting on substantive issues—but people on social media will confidently assert things and lots of really terrible media articles. Many on here no longer state even obvious things—everything greeted with confusion.

2022-09-18 02:53:00 @adam42smith CDC relies on local reporting the quality or rules around which greatly varies greatly by jurisdiction. See their struggles to report on vaccination rates—they ended up capping arbitrarily. The key question is chart review. I’ve been talking to doctors about this for a while.

2022-09-17 16:53:55 @bruuklin1 Yeah exactly, and you had used Venmo before, right? It just switched you over, or tried.

2022-09-17 16:31:43 @vcsjones @marcprecipice @itsjoekent @matthew_d_green Seriously? Yikes.

2022-09-17 16:11:04 @itsjoekent @marcprecipice @vcsjones @matthew_d_green Also they are pushing this on *already* verified accounts with absolutely zero hint there is an alternative way to keep using Venmo.

2022-09-17 16:00:59 @marcprecipice @itsjoekent @vcsjones @matthew_d_green I get the use case but we should have had better ways of doing this already and that court case is shocking enough — people don’t understand what they’re turning over, often with a very misleading ui, on little more than hope that the company will behave and have great security.

2022-09-17 15:44:38 @marcprecipice @itsjoekent @matthew_d_green Besides even if they have magic security so few companies seem to have, even “We don’t sell your personal information” is laughably narrow given US definitions of PII.

2022-09-17 15:42:14 @marcprecipice @itsjoekent @matthew_d_green If only there was a multi-decade history of divergence between what companies say will happen to your data and were it actually ends up, with or without their cooperation even—as per non-stop examples of hacks, breaches and leaks. (“We hash the passwords” version included).

2022-09-17 15:37:12 @matthew_d_green @cronokirby IIRC, you remove the bank account and re-add it de novo, the ACH verification option appears. For existing accounts, even if previously verified, it forces you to Plaid which wants you to turn over your bank account login info! That’s full access. How about no?

2022-09-17 15:34:30 @matthew_d_green @cronokirby Let me refind what I did. Yeah they don’t tell you.

2022-09-17 15:31:40 @matthew_d_green @cronokirby Option still exists but very, very well hidden. https://t.co/YQChJ2LmUF

2022-09-17 15:29:17 There is a buried-deep-option to verify Venmo without this third-party connection that will see your bank statements but this is the default now—and unless you look very hard and go out of your way, it appears to the user to be without alternative.Where does Plaid info end up? https://t.co/HrMEGzEXNL

2022-09-17 14:03:44 @clasticdetritus Thank you! So much time is spent on discussions of minor stuff. It’s here, it’s free and too few people seem to even know about it!

2022-09-17 06:16:25 RT @scott_squires: “I’ve never understood the second-guessing by public health authorities and doctors about how the public may or may not…

2022-09-17 05:17:23 RT @nytimes: In OpinionThe new, updated Covid boosters "are getting so little fanfare," writes columnist @zeynep, that "lots of people wh…

2022-09-17 00:34:59 @nataliexdean @LucyStats @nytimes @biosbenk Hah perfect

2022-09-16 23:35:23 RT @scalzi: As noted before, I'll be getting the new shot at the beginning of October, and I'm encouraging all my family and friends to get…

2022-09-16 23:34:14 @bluetsunami22 @GovHowardDean Only the bivalent is available as booster so you should be fine.

2022-09-16 19:09:14 @MREathome I personally am assuming, like before, protection from infection takes two weeks to get established and lasts for months at least, as long as there is no big variant change, and that, like before, the protection against severity is quite durable. Not overthinking more, for myself

2022-09-16 19:00:35 Concept 2 seems to have a lot of fans! Will go test some stuff out this weekend! Thank everyone!

2022-09-16 18:38:31 @tony_burnetti @tehlike I found a reference from *1385* about the neurological complications in the aftermath of the flu epidemic. The worst kept secret, hundreds of years of doctors with experience saying to the next generation "wait, don't y'all remember this happened the last time around as well?"

2022-09-12 20:01:04 @croman39 @DouthatNYT The actual fact is autoimmune diseases effect women more—any immunologist can explain to you immune differences by sex, likely related to unique immune requirements of pregnancy.The rest is because you might be a jerk? Lots of men and women from many races/classes are affected.

2022-09-12 19:53:03 @esoltas @ipogadog Yeah for sure. Will read paper properly on the computer. (Sorry also on my phone ).

2022-09-12 19:45:10 @esoltas @ipogadog Thank you! You covered about a 14 month period, right? ONS has nice data matching strain and employment effects, just looking at the comparison.

2022-09-12 19:15:55 @ipogadog @esoltas Question: your reference week is when? Sometime in summer 2021, looks like? (I think during the Delta wave?)

2022-09-12 18:27:26 RT @msrmichaelson: British-Egyptian activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah is 164 days into a hunger strike &

2022-09-12 18:05:06 @DouthatNYT It's great to examine cultural characteristics, including dysfunctional ones and especially those that might be furthered along by online/social media dynamics, but where's the context? A pandemic piece shouldn't read like it was written in 1953 about hysterical housewives.

2022-09-12 18:00:22 @DouthatNYT Only if it didn't also describe POTS as "lightheadedness" and leave it there

2022-09-12 13:50:19 We need better diagnostic codes/names for the range of post-viral sequelae.Some report "brain fog" in the more ordinary sense—seen after flu, too, and often resolves.For others, it's a debilitating chronic cognitive condition, often with PEM.We unhelpfully lump it together.

2022-09-12 13:41:05 @OmicronData @edyong209 I genuinely don't know. I've been interviewing Long Covid / ME-CFS patients for a while and it took some time to better understand this aspect. I've not (yet) experienced anything similar, so I describe it as best I can — can't fully comment on what else it best compares with.

2022-09-12 13:19:03 @ValeBodi @edyong209 I'm really glad Ed wrote about it. I've more pieces on the way as well, and I don't think there can be too many articles. So much suffering, so much misunderstanding, and so little substantive, specific and in-depth coverage proportional to the problem.

2022-09-12 13:09:22 When we describe LC or ME/CFS patients as "bedbound" there's a misunderstanding, as if they are like someone with spinal cord injury—back to life/work in a wheelchair, adjusted for loss of mobility.It's not that. The cognitive dysfunction and PEM alone make it very different.

2022-09-12 13:04:19 A note to all writing about all Long Covid or ME/CFS (and more should!): Let patients know that you are fine stopping and/or rescheduling if they feel like they are about to cross their pacing limit.I've had people cry when I mentioned it because so few understand this barrier.

2022-09-12 13:00:45 As Ed explains, many patients have "post-exertional malaise" which also applies to cognitive effort — they can be fine briefly but then they "crash".They show up to interviews/doctors having rested so they do it, but it's not how they are 24/7 and they will pay a price after.

2022-09-12 12:54:35 Read @edyong209 on "brain fog". When many with Long Covid or ME/CFS etc. talk of "brain fog" they don't mean having an off day or a hangover. After listening to many, my mental model of this type of "brain fog" is that it is to thinking what running in quicksand would be. https://t.co/E6E88o860K

2022-09-11 17:51:16 @Jamesbl95088035 @ElleMandell @vlal42 @SnoozyWeiss If you go seek out patients first — rather than starting online and making unjustified generalizations from there — the patterns are very clear, and it’s just not possible to dismiss all this as pandemic stress exacerbates mental health issues or social contagion / subculture.

2022-09-10 18:25:20 RT @sherpaCato: That's the thing, the world is filled with cruel folly.

2022-09-10 18:13:08 Mood https://t.co/OSuVjRg3Tp

2022-09-10 02:21:01 @slavin_fpo

2022-09-10 02:09:14 RT @usopen: NY sunsets >

2022-09-09 16:14:20 @mbalter

2022-09-09 05:34:46 @JDHaltigan @vlal42 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Forget the media part. The scientific puzzle remains and much suffering can be addressed *and* it’s a genuinely big question. This started with POTS so let me end with interesting work on its physiology. They created a sham condition, as an experiment. https://t.co/h9Eq4NYKYM

2022-09-09 05:18:25 @JDHaltigan @vlal42 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss ..read past papers &

2022-09-09 05:15:36 @JDHaltigan @vlal42 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Too long for Twitter, but don't dismiss what I keep saying about clinical histories. Listen to the nth person describe "healthy/active - virus - distinct/baffling cluster that completely puts their life on hold" coherent story, and then dig into history for many such examples...+

2022-09-09 05:07:53 @Saikmedi @vlal42 @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss (If anything, I wish more smart skeptics moved beyond weaknesses of whatever studies existed and looked at the question substantively — in my view, it’s genuinely screaming big breakthrough that might unite many open questions, and medical science has a history of such moments).

2022-09-09 05:01:46 @Saikmedi @vlal42 @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss I will read! I’m very interested in all the critiques of various studies but my own conviction that this is genuinely important and awaiting a major breakthrough, too deep for Twitter, and that, most sincerely, needs a lot good minds, isn’t based on a single or a few studies.

2022-09-09 04:57:37 @vlal42 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Well I’ve been doing more of that since 2020. But either way this is a very important scientific puzzle, and if he wants to bring his skepticism and skills to dig into this, great. Causal inference is my thing, and I’m convinced. There’s something important to solve here.

2022-09-09 04:50:48 @vlal42 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss I wrote the article. It's short. I can send him the 20K version I wrote if he's actually interested? I'm pretty confident of my own research on the topic (which is far more than anything I can fit in an article) as far as my claims go.

2022-09-09 04:47:58 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss I'm going to circle back to it: forget the social media manifestation of all these arguments, and I'm right there that the umbrella term needs subcategories. Engage with the clinics, with all the skepticism because that's what I tried as well, and it's just.. so distinct. /3

2022-09-09 04:44:34 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Skepticism is great, but so is the ability to notice something big and unsolved where we're impeded by "illusion of knowledge" — consensus/existing knowledge is almost always correct, except when it's not. It's a fine line. I think this case is one. Hence outside the stadium.2/3

2022-09-09 04:41:56 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss I can't fit it all in a tweet. I have a lot of thoughts on the topic. (I always thought it was an umbrella, by the way). A bunch of what I think about the subsets is here (in this very short article). (1/2) https://t.co/KtqEDJcd0l

2022-09-09 04:35:25 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss ..and that some will get Nobels if they crack it, because it will likely unite a bunch of "mysterious" conditions, and relieve suffering, and maybe break some of the mind/body duality? And no surprise that teeny tiny viruses and immune systems remain in this corner. 3/3

2022-09-09 04:32:19 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Yes, I'm convinced (after much time with LC clinicians and patients and reading) that there *is* a distinct subset (perhaps subtypes within it, but related) that's post-viral, not ordinary sequelae, seems to greatly overlap with ME/CFS and is chronic and severe... 2/3

2022-09-09 04:29:00 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Okay. I'm not a dualist for mind/body at all, so do stress/anxiety/depression interact with many other things? For sure. I'm not convinced that there's not at upstream causal dynamic (like inflammation), rather than the "head causes body" model in medicine but that aside.. 1/2

2022-09-09 04:23:26 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss And patient histories of people who end up at the clinics, or on their waitlists, are genuinly informative and do not fit anything but almost if not all of them being post-viral conditions of high severity — whatever else plays a role is not first order. Clinical history is data.

2022-09-09 04:20:38 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss But a priori describing it as "mental health" due to pandemic stress is also clearly wrong. Right now, it's an umbrella term for a range of post-viral conditions, some chronic and quite debilitating for which we have no treatment, others transient and/or more ordinary sequelae.

2022-09-09 04:12:33 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss (After talking to many clinicians and patients and reading past research, of this and other post-viral/chronic syndromes, my guess is what we now call "Long Covid" will eventually get subdivided under different headings, and each connected to historic examples of their versions).

2022-09-09 04:10:07 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss And that will best start at the clinics, because that's where they are concentrated (with long wait lists). Current vague definitions suck, but the people whose lives are on complete hold, but who had active, healthy lives till the infection are not vague. https://t.co/zOr2cV4nAx

2022-09-09 04:05:32 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss The histories *do not* fit that explanation, but very much fit... post-viral something to better understand, related to ME/CFS — EBV etc. activation, viral persistence, other plausible things to explore?This discussion can't float above distinct clinical histories of so many.

2022-09-09 04:00:30 @Saikmedi @tannahillglen @bariweiss @SnoozyWeiss Actually, no because one can distinguish that (which, no doubt is common) and the people who end up in the clinics. You could, too. My contention is that there is a distinct subset, and yes, it greatly resembles ME/CFS so it was a thing before, but now pandemic scale.

2022-09-07 15:22:46 @ilDottoreRobert @OmicronData @LizHighleyman "I'm going to put *myself* at greater risk because I don't like *someone else's* messaging?" That's... well, what can I say. Best of luck.

2022-09-07 13:51:32 @phealthsean @notdred @LizHighleyman After more than two years, I’m really not that sympathetic tbh. A bit of discussion in replies is fine. But there’s a large number of people who only focus on marginal stuff, and pretty much never on key issues. If they did that even occasionally, I’d have a lot more sympathy.

2022-09-07 13:48:18 @PhillyParent @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman There's a difference there, it makes sense for young people and elderly/vulnerable populations to think of their booster timing differently—elderly populations don't have as robust immune memory and response, and more frequent boosters make sense for them.

2022-09-07 13:47:04 @davidzweig @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman All this focus on Twitter and on media on marginal issues where there are a few simple points to make, while not at all focusing on the main message, has been tragic in its consequences the whole pandemic, and it's especially inexcusable coming from so many medical doctors.

2022-09-07 13:44:59 @davidzweig @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman Point is marginal topics are dominating discussion.For colleges: "no mandate outside of dorms along with explaining why strain-matched boosters will benefit them and their community including against future strains, and they should space it from their last exposure." See, done.

2022-09-07 13:35:05 @orrkid1 @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman There was an enormous wave of "Long Flu" after the 1918 pandemic as well, but anyway making my point. Sorry to hear you've been conned. Best of luck.

2022-09-07 13:24:52 @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman People are busy discussing marginal issues. If we explained the benefits properly to the population, had aggressive outreach to the more vulnerable, and a good explanation and easy acccess for everyone else, yeah mandates for college is a fair topic... after all that.

2022-09-07 13:22:58 @macovid2021 @nalsenec @LizHighleyman You are making my point! What you said is a shadow of the truth: vaccinated people get infected less (even if not 100%), transmit less, severity is lower, odds of Long Covid is lower... "Vaccines do not stop people from catching Covid" as the main message is exactly our failing.

2022-09-07 13:20:15 @CBoy287 @LizHighleyman Look up affinity maturation and antigenic evolution for a few minutes, thanks.

2022-09-07 13:19:03 @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman In the US media and on Twitter, there's a weird focus on marginal issues (like college mandates) which would be fine to discuss if the broader message was getting out, but what happens is it all gets lost in these marginal discussions with few making the actual case on benefits.

2022-09-07 13:17:58 @apsmunro @OmicronData @LizHighleyman That's one good message, but why the only one? There are many kids/youth in the UK who are suffering from Long Covid who got infected after pediatric vaccines became available, and some of them would have been spared if vaccinated.

2022-09-07 13:14:56 @eliowa @LizHighleyman I think booster *mandate* for this population is a fair discussion but key point should be what they *reliably* do are highly beneficial. For many young ones, this would be an Omicron "booster" (as they got infected) aka affinity maturation aka protection against future strains.

2022-09-07 13:10:27 @OmicronData @LizHighleyman That's what's happening! There is a contingent of medical doctors who almost solely talk about marginal stuff and shortcomings (which would be fine to discuss if they ever bothered making the main points, too).They did this the whole pandemic, and the results are tragic.

2022-09-07 13:05:28 @OmicronData @LizHighleyman If we messaged about other vaccines the way so many highly visible people talk about these vaccines ("Here's how they're not perfect over and over and over and over") without any kind of corresponding effort to explain their obvious many benefits, few would get any vaccine.

2022-09-07 13:03:27 @OmicronData @LizHighleyman Discussing mandates makes sense AS LONG AS THE MAIN MESSAGE was on the benefits of vaccines, and especially strain-matched ones. I'm sorry to be yelling, but people have managed to convince a population that "imperfect" somehow means not worth it, and the results are tragic.

2022-09-07 13:01:59 @nalsenec @LizHighleyman This is the exact example of what people conned by these irresponsible people say. I'm sorry. The entire field of immunology, the actual experts, rather than this kind of irresponsible messaging, should have been centered by the media. It's been tragic.

2022-09-07 13:00:05 @KelleyKga @LizHighleyman If anything, they understated the benefits for the general population. I agree that they should have done more to encourage spacing, and Pfizer rather than Moderna, for boys and young adult men — BUT AGAIN, IF THAT'S ALL ONE TALKS ABOUT, THAT'S NOT RESPONSIBLE given the benefits.

2022-09-07 12:44:03 @GarciaMD @seeminglyrob Thanks! It's much easier to tell such psychological stories rather than more difficult sociological ones, but that's all we get, and I think it also shapes how we understand the actual world, to our detriment.

2022-09-07 12:42:36 @LizHighleyman I don't get why the main message is "don't reliably" when, in fact, vaccines help with severity, reduce transmission and Long Covid odds, and now are strain-matched! Can you imagine if we railed against flu vaccine shortcomings all the time like that, rather than the main point?

2022-09-07 12:39:21 @LizHighleyman There's a very large contingent of medical doctors who spend so much energy tweeting only about marginal questions, almost none on explaining the benefits of vaccines, while also saying they're against restrictions despite the obvious fact vaccines would greatly help. So bizarre.

2022-09-05 18:01:33 So it's absolutely not the case that the "with/of" people earlier eras were correct — they were not, and it was horrific, by all accounts. The fact that things changed is true, it doesn't make people who made false and damaging claims retroactively correct.

2022-09-05 17:59:51 Fast forward to 2022. In this case, same doctor who did chart reviews in 2020 says now maybe 10% of the people who test positive in the screenining have any symptoms — thus they don't even know it before the test and that's not why they're in the hospital.https://t.co/UsOMpSF3FO

2022-09-05 17:54:31 For example, see this about Winter of 2020. You can talk to people in any large US hospital and hear similar stories... It was horrific by all accounts and IT WAS BECAUSE OF COVID.Lack of better, more precise data allowed a lot of misleading claims. https://t.co/gznqyIQZPx

2022-09-05 17:51:40 See replies to thread on how lack of proper data can fuel confusion.US hospitals test everyone for Covid, and death get reported as Covid deaths, without chart review.Early on, that was used to *falsely* claim many were not dying of Covid. Most were. Now, it's the opposite. https://t.co/4zauHmMKUb https://t.co/kFXM6vlj5h

2022-09-05 14:34:21 @qkslvrwolf Hah. That piece has gotten so much traction, and I actually thought about all this because of how it applies to how we understand the world (though, similarly, it affects what kind of fiction I like!).

2022-09-05 04:40:32 @ajinkyahk

2022-09-05 03:46:34 @qkslvrwolf

2022-09-05 03:41:01 Plot armor comes out when the story itself is weak sauce—for me, no great cinematics, casting, acting, CGI, whatever can make up for weak storytelling.Plot armor is necessary when the story is too weak to generate narrative tension besides "will my fave character survive".

2022-09-05 03:36:20 Agree. As I wrote in the piece linked upthread, that's the link between shows like The Wire and OG GoT before the showrunners got their hands on it—the storytelling is sociological.No plot armor, and it's possible to understand many characters at once. https://t.co/7eCtEhfDxR

2022-09-05 03:31:58 Not much of a spoiler, but I lose all interest when someone in a fictional story walks into a situation they clearly should not be able to survive — say a hundred people shooting arrows at them in an open field — and walks away with barely a scratch. Yawn, yawn. Meh. No story.

2022-09-05 03:27:48 I'd written that Game of Thrones abandoned sociological storytelling at end—showrunners turning it into Hollywood fluff.Finally watched #HouseofDragons and yep, this episode had the telltale sign of fluff storytelling: plot armor.My piece on the OG GoT:https://t.co/gxX5hsdH6I https://t.co/t2OL861EzJ

2022-09-04 21:22:17 RT @JenniferUhrlaub: PSA: if you’ve donated blood to a COVID research study, and are willing to again, check in with your study team before…

2022-09-04 21:20:09 RT @aflordecamp: "Bright-sided" needs to be remembered as well, indeed

2022-09-04 14:32:13 @DahliaRemler It wasn’t properly coordinated. Some large hospital had very little, some irrelevant even cosmetic medical clinics had too much—I found so many examples while writing the piece.

2022-09-04 14:23:29 @marcelsalathe https://t.co/GGOHEaAaxD

2022-09-04 01:29:08 @notdred @byelin Before it even becomes an event tbh.

2022-09-04 01:04:42 @notdred There you go

2022-09-03 21:33:50 RT @JuliaAngwin: Thank you @john_d_beatty for putting together a Wikipedia page for Peter Eckersley, who passed away suddenly last night. I…

2022-09-03 18:50:12 @DahliaRemler I’m sorry to hear it took so long. We have had abundant Evusheld supply for many, many months now. It’s still severely underused despite providing a clear benefit to a very vulnerable population. I still regularly hear from people who first heard it from my oped in the NYT.

2022-09-03 17:45:04 @n_hold @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl Again, not personally offended or victimized — but I’m used to this. I wrote about Facebook as a misinformation problem in 2012 and the White House got involved to cal it malarkey. Saying masks work got called misinfo. Etc. Anyway, reality is reality. That’s all. Have a nice day.

2022-09-03 17:39:52 @n_hold @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl I was—in a polite reply conversation, trying talk about something I think is similar but it got taken out of context—and you can see the replies here! Trying to provide correct info is “minimizing”. I’m not personally offended or victimized. But, again, few care about the issue.

2022-09-03 17:36:57 @n_hold @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl I have a multi-decade record of trying to oppose widely-held but imo incorrect beliefs. “A pandemic is coming, must prepare.” “Masks are useful, stop denigrating them.” “It’s airborne.” “We need to take variants seriously”. That’s all me from 2020. Doesn’t mean I’m always right.

2022-09-03 17:32:31 @n_hold @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl I’m not personally offended, but obviously no point in trying to keep explaining the problem. The people who will pay the price of making it difficult to discuss *actual statistics and data* isn’t any high-profile academic. But few seem interested in that point. So carry on?

2022-09-03 15:40:58 RT @Tuliodna: Argentina health department confirmed the ‘unknown pathogen’ of the pneumonia cases as Legionela pneumonia bacteria today. Fa…

2022-09-03 15:39:48 RT @ghadfield: Very sad to hear about the sudden loss of Peter Eckersley--fitting that this was his last tweet. A beautiful mind, committ…

2022-09-03 14:43:47 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl If accurate facts get labeled as “downplaying”, like you just did, people suffer. But yeah, I can’t convince you obviously. The problem is that there are a large number of people — not me — who pay the collective price of all this. Have a nice day.

2022-09-03 14:41:12 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl You realize it’s not about me at all? Your first tweet is the best example. We needed to warn very loudly about Delta (and I did my best, very early, in high profile outlets) but also emphasize accurate facts about vaccination for that variant — you labeled that a “downplaying”.

2022-09-03 14:17:51 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl Just maybe the issue isn't elite closure as it is "making a discussion about key statistical issues toxic isn't in the benefit of n abandoned community of sufferers" — even if it is easier to nod along with the numberwang at the expense of realism about the strategic landscape.

2022-09-03 14:07:54 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl Indeed, there are weirdly some people obsessed with me, lying non-stop about what I actually say, though it is all easily confirmable.On this issue, yes, I kept objecting to screenshots out-of-context, and I had it especially in the context of badly-abandoned Long-Haulers.

2022-09-03 14:01:23 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl Speaking of, this is what I just wrote in the NYT, on Long Covid, calling for a National Institute on Post-Viral Conditions. It's not a subtle piece either.Also more: don't believe the Twitter liars.https://t.co/KtqEDJcd0l

2022-09-03 14:00:14 @ballerina9999 @BillHanage @s_j_prins @wsbgnl Good morning! This is what I *actually* wrote about Delta in May of 2021 in the New York Times — one of the earliest warnings, and it's not subtle.Vaccines *were* very protective against Delta

2022-09-03 04:40:21 RT @jsrailton: The utter unfairness when the good die much, much too young.Talented people who choose to use their gifts &

2022-09-03 04:19:17 RT @jsrailton: There's a good chance that you're safer because of Peter Eckersley or things he got started.He had a vision of how to make…

2022-09-02 23:10:33 @richardpointer I really liked that book.

2022-09-02 23:10:11 @AaronTeasdale It’s a treat.

2022-09-02 23:09:28 @kumailn Here you go. https://t.co/mG6XY9Okdm

2022-09-02 21:53:15 RT @pen_int: 100,000+ people have signed a petition calling for the immediate release of British-Egyptian writer/activist, @alaa, currently…

2022-09-02 19:08:25 Many will know of Ehrenreich's very succesful book, "Nickel and Dimed", but I was also very fond "Bright-sided: How Positive Thinking is Undermined America, her excellent book excoriating the shallow "just think-positive!" industrial-complex.Her voice will be missed. https://t.co/ChNCo4pN8Q

2022-09-02 18:02:58 @MClendaniel It’s been fascinating because while it’s possible to find a few anecdotes maybe — with strain changes or rare situations — we have sooo much actual data and basically an entire field of immunologists that make it clear that’s just not true at large scale. And yet.. it persists.

2022-09-01 01:07:33 @Jamesbl95088035 @TheEliKlein @JamesSurowiecki It’s really terrible how underfunded the research into all this has been. (I could easily write pieces requiring little to no research.)

2022-09-01 00:45:27 RT @michaelzlin: Other good news about the bivalent booster approved today:#JnJers are fully qualified, since the booster is for anyone p…

2022-09-01 00:41:41 RT @RicharLisa: The life expectancy of Native Americans and Alaska Natives has declined from 71 to 65 in just 3 years, and is now at the le…

2022-08-31 23:27:27 @molly_knight It really is.

2022-08-31 23:15:21 Americans had access to vaccines earlier than almost anyone else, and in greater supply. We have more resources at every level than most countries. We spend more per capita on healthcare than any wealthy nation.And yet, the dysfunction and the inequality, combined, chews it up.

2022-08-31 23:13:05 Sharp decline in US life expectancy—horrific especially for a country that spends so much on healthcare without getting as much health in return.The decline in life expectancy started before the pandemic and badly worsened with pandemic deaths added.https://t.co/P8l06FrHnf https://t.co/X8sdzPNHNO

2022-08-31 22:42:16 @KashPrime @BenMazer (I’m obviously not referring to the life expectancy numbers as those are horrifying, and unfortunately pretty solid. What a tragedy).

2022-08-31 22:41:24 @KashPrime @BenMazer A stronger and more precise estimate, if we’re going to go by estimates rather than surveillance and surveys, would help make the effort clearer and politically more feasible. Long Covid sufferers need immediate and strong help, and numberwang doesn’t help that at all, imo.

2022-08-31 22:38:29 @KashPrime @BenMazer One reason is that those numbers are pretty obviously implausible. But let’s skip that. The number of people who need immediate help in terms of disability payments is smaller, but exaggerating it this much, like this, will probably make politicians stay away from the effort.

2022-08-31 22:36:48 @KashPrime @BenMazer I absolutely agree on the stakes. There is more than enough people to be concerned about. However, I share the concern that these *obviously* implausible numbers being taken seriously without scrutiny will hurt the efforts to help Long Covid sufferers for a variety of reasons.+

2022-08-31 22:24:45 RT @nytimesworld: In a long-awaited report, the United Nations’ human rights office accused China of actions that “may constitute internati…

2022-08-31 21:58:14 An immunologist comments, echoing immunologists @profshanecrotty and @PepperMarion.Some months between exposures (vaccine or infection, though latter not the recommended path) is good because you already have the immune system learning from the last one.https://t.co/zxiLkeSaMX

2022-08-31 19:42:29 @grubreport https://t.co/8u1Hzhc3Nm

2022-08-31 19:08:58 Common question on timing. As noted above, I've heard the same from many immunologists, who say to wait three to six months after the last infection or booster because your immune level is *already* high, though people should check with their doctor for individual factors. https://t.co/ZkRhZ8Ymx8

2022-08-31 18:29:26 In the weeks since, UK has acknowledged their citizen, but.. no other progress.Alaa's family reports that even getting clean clothes into the Egyptian prison has been an issue—and that's for a high-profile British citizen. Many others suffering, too. https://t.co/88v023w0qJ

2022-08-31 15:03:31 @dr_larryi @looking_finding I disagree, though I would agree that they are the highest priority for the categories you mention. Vaccine with an updated strain will broaden and deepen the antibody response, further along affinity maturation. Recommending isn't the same as mandating—that's a different issue.

2022-08-31 14:34:39 @looking_finding @dr_larryi Hard to tell, honestly, but everything we know suggests there would be some level of reduction everywhere. Unlike in prisons, though, people interact with a large number of folks of different immunity levels etc., so what you can measure depends on what percent vaccinated.

2022-08-31 14:31:25 @AsparksPolSci I can't tell you what to do, but if it were me, I would get this one as soon as I could under those circumstances. Waiting for a future one based on very little reason to wait as far as I'm concerned, while remaining less protected doesn't make any sense to me.

2022-08-31 14:22:41 @dr_larryi Here's one. Hard to study systematically except in setting like this (a prison).Somewhat unsurprising, vaccination reduces but does not completely eliminate transmission, which matches what the epi curve implies in many countries. https://t.co/WtircwAhK4

2022-08-31 14:18:44 Protection against severe disease after vaccines or infection — not the recommended path as it comes with risks — seem fairly durable in studies, but as people age, a process called immunosenescence means immunity becomes less robust.Boosters are most important for high-risk.

2022-08-31 14:14:00 Looks like they may authorize it for two months past the last booster.Talking to immunologists, I usually heard them recommend between three to six months after the last booster or infection, depending on one's risk levels — obviously to discuss with one's medical provider.

2022-08-31 14:11:17 One more step (CDC has to sign off) and there will be updated boosters available for everyone 12 and older in the US.Despite claims otherwise, even non-updated vaccine boosters were shown to reduce infection and transmission — these should easily improve on their levels. https://t.co/suG1Loscjo

2022-08-31 00:59:29 @jgbarzyk I think every step in the chain has convinced themselves they’re doing the right thing. But the net result is overall lots of credibility in every direction.

2022-08-31 00:56:26 @BenMazer Let’s not be too hasty to bring verifiable, large-scale facts into the conversation. The audience might shrink.

2022-08-30 18:55:43 To some degree, everyone can look at large-scale real life epi data and also maybe cultivate lists of people whose claims survived contact with real-life large-scale data.Unfortunately, doesn't work with every issue, but I don't have a better solution. https://t.co/DETrH6yFMF

2022-08-30 18:45:08 People doing substantive debunking end up being vilified and then other people show up with baseless objections to strong findings claiming they're also debunking.If one can already tell the categories apart, no need for the intermediaries. Otherwise, hard to tell them apart.

2022-08-30 18:41:38 Many used to debunk the worst offenders in real time, but even that seems futile. Twitter isn't good for that. But it just adds to the confusion. Unless you're already in a position to evaluate, i.e. you don't depend on intermediaries, how to choose between intermediaries?

2022-08-30 18:40:00 "But how can we tell which one is which?" Overselling vs. important finding?The academic community does usually filter a good deal of it out, *over time* as more data and papers appear.I don't think it's possible in this environment for normal folks.https://t.co/1CL7PcTZF8

2022-08-30 18:37:22 Overselling one's research—to get published or funded — isn't new. But now, there's a rapid assemby line from that to gullible journalists who'll package it for an eager echo chamber, but when the results don't live up to contact with real-life data, it sinks credibility for all.

2022-08-30 17:05:56 Nature review on the *very recently* confirmed link between Epstein-Barr and multiple sclerosis: "Despite years of controversy, the role of EBV.. may now be settled."Given likely key role of the first infection, a childhood vaccine for EBV is needed.https://t.co/QnQaZF02y5 https://t.co/iRwlxBvLxK

2022-08-30 03:50:01 RT @Single_Shot: Super interesting article on the health fallout of viruses. I had no idea people suffered from "long flu" after the 1918 i…

2022-08-30 03:18:36 @gracenoteME @chriseraphim @coco_chatel @OpenMedF Indeed. It seems clear that a subset of Long Covid and some ME/CFS patients have largely overlapping symptoms, perhaps sharing mechanisms, and a solid well-funded research program looking into post-viral conditions could help a large number of people, beyond LC, too.

2022-08-28 18:52:13 @awgaffney …because once the medical profession applies that label, there’s not much but blaming and gaslighting patients *and* also squashing and denying evidence about treatments that’d help many of these patients outside of therapy. That’s the upstream issue here. Rest flows from that./

2022-08-28 18:50:13 @awgaffney I think you’re overlooking how deep the institutionalized gaslighting of patients with not-yet-understood conditions goes—address that and we can more easily get out of the “in your head or not” dualism. It’s coming from the medical profession &

2022-08-28 18:47:08 @awgaffney They found some relief in medications, some even OTC, that are still not trialed, despite pretty consistent narratives from a subset of patients about their benefit and despite the fact many advanced clinicians I talked with also use them, and there are plausible mechanisms. +

2022-08-28 18:45:21 @awgaffney They managed to recover some quality of life by ignoring medical advice, listening to other patients, doing their own research and finding medical partners they could, well, browbeat into helping manage their prescriptions and strict pacing and other oft dismissed interventions.+

2022-08-28 18:43:09 @awgaffney I have academic friends I’ve known for more than a decade, who were badly and persistently gaslit about their Long Covid by medical doctors—despite even having a positive test when few could. This happened , despite their PhD and the privileges of class, race and insurance. +

2022-08-28 18:01:00 @awgaffney Is the mind-body dualism also a problem? Yes, it is. That’s why patients too get so focused on it because that’s often the only way to get the medical establishment to stop gaslighting them. Solve that, it becomes easier to make practical and intellectual progress on the dualism.

2022-08-28 17:58:38 @awgaffney There’s a fundamental problem, in that when faced with a condition it doesn’t understand, medicine has a long history of psychologizing (as a means to externalize) and dismissing it, to the point of trashing or ignoring researchers chasing evidence-based leads to the physiology.+

2022-08-28 17:39:04 @awgaffney On PEM, probably too complicated for Twitter but as I said, I am convinced not just that it's real for a subset of LC patients, as with ME/CFS, it's baffling nature makes it a very important target for research and understanding, as it may well unlock a lot of causal issues./n

2022-08-28 17:36:14 @awgaffney Primary docs on the history of ulcer are horrifying.Thus I find my emphasis in this piece appropriate, as it is a widespread, pervasive and current problem with a lot of history behind it, and yeah can later also discuss the mind/body duality problem that we seem to agree on.+

2022-08-28 17:33:42 @awgaffney So while medicine does need to break the mind/body duality, deal better with psychosocial...A deep reading of history makes it pretty clear that patients persistently getting gaslit, dismissed and multiple lines of evidence being ignored by medical establishment isn't uncommon.

2022-08-28 17:31:06 @awgaffney Does stress contribute to worsening ulcers, and does the mind/body duality in medicine impede understanding? For sure. But the history shows decades dismissal of multiple lines of evidence under a framework that disobedient patients were the problem. Could've saved millions.+

2022-08-28 17:27:57 @awgaffney I read a lot, including primary docs from the time for both ulcers and MS and other similar histories. Forget history, I've testimonies of MS patients being dismissed *for years* from the 21st century, until they finally get someone who listens and believes them, orders imaging.

2022-08-28 16:46:36 @awgaffney So on PEM, we've a genuine disagreement. (Though I'd also probably say that for *this subset* pacing isn't a path to recovery necessarily, but a way to avoid further detoriation or long periods of lower capacity, and a way to maintain higher-capacity functioning over time). /n

2022-08-28 16:43:59 @awgaffney Of course, someone who experiences it can also becamoe very anxious about exertion, etc., similar to somatic hypervigilance dynamics.But, In fact, to go further, PEM is so baffling that I think it's going to be one of the key research avenues that will unlock a bunch of things.

2022-08-28 16:41:27 @awgaffney Also I'm both aware of, and fairly sympathetic to social contagion as an explanation for certain phenomenon, but for PEM, I got convinced by multiple lines of strong evidence that it was experienced independently by a subset of LC patients—its baffling nature itself a clue there.

2022-08-28 16:38:28 @awgaffney Thus I think it's simultaneously true that for most people, and many conditions, get out and exercise more is absolutely correct while for a subset with this baffling, often viral-onset, condition, PEM is very real, and pacing is warranted. The key question is figuring out who.

2022-08-28 16:36:40 @awgaffney I talked to a large number of scientists but the fact that PEM was documented for so long in ME/CFS, and then after the pandemic, a large number of the (ME/CFS-like subset of) Long Covid patients who had never heard of it independently experienced it.. That alone is very telling.

2022-08-28 16:33:49 @awgaffney I came into this as a lifelong exerciser, with a dear friend with major depression who benefits greatly from cardio more than anything else, and as someone whose knee-jerk answer to many things is "exercise more". But for this subset, imo, there's sufficient evidence for PEM.

2022-08-28 16:31:21 @awgaffney On pacing — I am convinced that for a subset of Long Covid patients, and also some ME/CFS who clearly experience PEM, an there's significant (and yet insufficient) physicological evidence, and also that graded increase in exercise is great for *other* subsets— deconditioning etc.

2022-08-28 16:29:04 @awgaffney On MS, it's a very short paragraph, what it's asserting is that many patients *did* get diagnosed with conversion disorder—similar to ulcer patients getting told they were disobedient, type-a men—rather than the bacteria causing the peptic ulcers. It's not a sequential history.

2022-08-26 15:52:07 A gift link to my NYT essay on the state of Long Covid research, and why we should do a lot more to support current sufferers and to accelerate research, including on all post-viral conditions.Once we look, they're everywhere. https://t.co/XGSe1QPbCF https://t.co/CBK3AXgFAF

2022-08-26 15:47:19 @kathrynsbach Thank you!

2022-08-26 15:23:09 See review!@VirusesImmunity also told me pandemics may differ as "the way we interact with a virus in different ages is certainly different" and unlike "exposure early in life", it's now a novel virus "you've never seen it until you're in your thirties".https://t.co/f9mqLZs9n5

2022-08-26 15:05:38 An excellent recent piece in the Atlantic on "Long Influenza" and Epstein-Barr Virus (cannot wait for that vaccine) complications—including Long EBV and a variety of other chronic conditions.A National Institute for Post-Viral Conditions is warranted.https://t.co/oKyf0J4jiE https://t.co/NY36AkybaK

2022-08-26 14:54:51 @AdrianoAguzzi I don't think anyone is talking about bundling the two without any consideration or criteria. The research streams not talking to each other seems obviously counterproductive.

2022-08-26 14:37:22 @Theresatweeting Yeah, I'm sorry. Too many stories like that.

2022-08-26 14:31:44 @AdrianoAguzzi There's been a whole bunch of tiny trials with ME/CFS, also without sufficient differentiation to phenotyping the categories. That loses signals... Similar problem will plague LC unless subtype definitions (which everyone I talked with kinda has in their head) are introduced.

2022-08-26 14:30:03 @AdrianoAguzzi Not just money, but a reorganization. For example, right now, ME/CFS researchers cannot apply for Long Covid grants even though a subset of patients are clearly fairly similar. Some maybe dead-end research is kinda necessary, but that clashes with academic incentives...

2022-08-26 12:02:44 RT @DocJeffD: “Long Covid sufferers who caught the virus early have entered their third year with the condition. Many told me they have los…

2022-08-26 10:31:40 RT @natalieben: “Medicine doesn’t like what it can’t understand, so it often ignores it,” Ravindra Ganesh, a physician scientist who direct…

2022-08-26 04:29:35 RT @BerrakBiz: From day one, @zeynep has been diligent and intentional in her research and approach to talking about COVID. This is no exce…

2022-08-26 03:06:44 RT @lilspartansamu1: Establish a National Institute of Post Viral Syndromes!!!

2022-08-26 02:54:27 @AlexBerenson I do. And it was an honest reply. Humility is a good approach here. You do you. But life isn’t just about quote tweets and dunking. I’ll leave it here.

2022-08-26 02:52:06 @WesElyMD

2022-08-26 02:49:15 @Steve_Sailer If you look at this history with some open eyes, you will find many similar examples.

2022-08-26 02:45:01 RT @lsaguirre: Other chronic diseases are triggered by viral infections, which means that, as @zeynep writes, “solving this puzzle could be…

2022-08-26 00:45:06 RT @HarvardChanDean: We need more research to better understand and treat the long Covid symptoms that are affecting millions right now. Co…

2022-08-26 00:44:43 @AlexBerenson You’re a wave of contempt riding a wave of “there but for grace of God I go.” I don’t know how you sleep at night but I can’t wish on you the kind of awakening that would come if one of your children got unlucky enough with a complex chronic condition. Because it’s that horrible.

2022-08-25 22:33:13 @Steve_Sailer (They also used jargon like you just did to deny ulcers were caused by bacteria).

2022-08-25 22:27:37 @Steve_Sailer Yep! The guy defied the conventional wisdom and proved bacteria caused ulcers — after about a century of medical denial — did. Doctors back then insisted it was in the patient’s heads — especially the career men. Saved so many lives as stomach cancer also disappeared.

2022-08-19 16:34:40 @Dakota_150 @elizabethics @EthicsElizabeth @Twitter @TheLancet Yeah, it's wait and see and if you do get banned because of sharing mundane articles from regular sources, usually someone needs to manage to find a Twitter person to get them to fix it. All this really sucks as a process and happens to people across the viewpoint spectrum.

2022-08-19 16:26:43 @Dakota_150 @elizabethics @EthicsElizabeth @Twitter @TheLancet Ugh, I'm sorry. It seems to be happening to a bunch of people, with really different points of view, too, from what I can tell. Did you appeal? I hate to say this, but things like this go wrong all the time, and usually get solved via a personal outreach to someone in Twitter.

2022-08-19 14:49:20 @natematias Yep! The blackbox nature of platform data is a huge problem. In this case, a cursory check over a few minutes showed the problem affecting people across a very, very wide range of viewpoints so I'm going with the usual moderation clunkiness unless anything else emerges.

2022-08-19 14:47:34 If you ask only your friends about a topic, you can see coherence where there is none.Keeping an open mind and examining the issue is good!Unfortunately, platform data is blackbox to researchers.But using appropriate research methods and a substantive understanding matter.

2022-08-19 14:43:56 After seeing a lot of such complaints, I spent a few minutes looking for people making such complaints. I've seen it from people ranging from Covid deniers to mitigation maximalists. So, sure let's look into it but.. looks like so many previous times to me, so far.

2022-08-19 14:39:12 What does happen is a content source favored by a group might get downrated... So everyone sharing from BestFakeNewsDOTCOM might suddenly see an uptick in labeling.But if the sources being mislabeled are mundane and high-profile, usually a glitch. It sucks! But not the same.

2022-08-19 14:36:31 That's the thing. I've been looking into such claims for more than a decade, and they usually don't, really.People who haven't studied tech platforms might think they do, because they already think alike and they send each other their own examples.https://t.co/R47hwqYt6w

2022-08-19 14:33:13 Yep. Such stuff cropping up is not sign of anything good, but usually not what people think it is.Platform moderation is a very imprecise, clunky process, done at the scale of billions. They have little capacity to target with any precision at scale.https://t.co/SQvhAOhqVG

2022-08-19 14:28:06 For example: after some tweak or update to the algo or workflow, lots of random, mundane stuff gets mislabeled. Then people look in their own homogeneous network, and start thinking it's targeted.Usually it's that social media moderation is low-quality, imprecise and sucky.

2022-08-19 14:21:56 Plus, platforms depend on user reporting, and whatever you think about what's true, there are many people who vehemently think the opposite, and people constantly get mass reported—even minor people. Some DM group becomes obsessed with them, "let's report" blah blah So it goes.

2022-08-19 14:19:32 Social media platform moderation is very, very imprecise. They constantly overshoot and undershoot compared to what they think they are doing—think algorithms with false positives and false negatives, and very, very rushed underpaid contractors in poor countries around the world.

2022-08-19 14:17:29 So if you ask your friends, and don't know how moderation works, you're could talk yourself into the idea it's targeted, because your friends will be saying similar things to each other so their examples will look coherent.To actually understand the scope, need to look widely.

2022-08-19 14:15:31 If targeted, the mislabeling should be somewhat coherent. I've looked around and... it seems exactly like before, bunch of random posts *across different view points* getting mislabeled.Why do people think it's targeted? Well, you see people who agree with you on your network.

2022-08-19 14:12:16 First, anyone at all familiar with how social platorms do moderation would know things exactly like this happen again and again without any particular targeting. Well-known issue.Could this one be targeted? Well, anything is possible but key question is what would be the signs?

2022-08-19 14:08:42 Seeing complaints that Twitter is labeling otherwise mundane COVID tweets (quoting studies/articles) as misinformation. Claims of censorship!Having observed this many times for over a decade, it's almost certainly a "false positive/algo" glitch, rather than anything targeted.

2022-08-19 13:33:01 RT @zeynep: Highly recommend that people update their Apple devices as soon as possible—as in, right now especially if you think you may be…

2022-08-19 03:31:09 RT @TheJesseSands: Setting->

2022-08-19 01:20:48 No. I wouldn’t wait. (Actually, I didn’t.) I recommend going to settings and updating manually especially for anyone at risk of being targeted.Time between the news of an exploit breaking and the update is a highly vulnerable period. https://t.co/SY7auXHFDy

2022-08-19 00:53:48 Highly recommend that people update their Apple devices as soon as possible—as in, right now especially if you think you may be targeted. https://t.co/REVn6lqDZb

2022-08-18 23:26:30 A heartbreaking update from his sister on one of Egypt’s many suffering political prisoners, now on day 139 of a hunger strike. https://t.co/YlI0OJpixJ

2022-08-18 06:45:00 RT @MicrobiomDigest: Here’s how a scrappy team of scientists, public health experts and plumbers is embracing wastewater surveillance as th…

2022-08-18 00:10:25 RT @jsrailton: PSA: Do you use Signal? Turn on registration lock today. Here's why... 1/https://t.co/7Q37PdnrCV https://t.co/JGeM9A4kl5

2022-08-17 18:41:17 @JenniferNuzzo They can't magically overcome the fragmented, messy data landscape so hopefully that's targeted as well. That said, absolutely agree on the importance of improving MMWR rigor. Some recent papers have been far below what one would hope for, caused much (understandable) confusion.

2022-08-17 18:32:23 @k_stephensonMD And maybe also use high-quality data from elsewhere rather than their own (sometimes inferior) MMWR study? We kept looking at work from UK, Denmark, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, etc. and wondering why.. we weren't acting.

2022-08-17 18:26:47 @jbakcoleman That's... quite a thread! All the rest sounds quite exciting, too!

2022-08-17 13:02:31 There is also the amazing Corsi-Rosenthal box, a cheap DIY option confirmed to deliver excellent results.Essentially, tape the right filters to a box fan. It works, CADR around 420.They can be noisier, but they work for many environments and are cheap.https://t.co/bXpxxHcb5b

2022-08-17 12:59:09 Here's a rule of thumb and detailed calculator for picking CADR for HEPA filers from @j_g_allen and @ShellyMBoulder. It was prepared for schools, but works for everywhere. Click on the second tab on the spreadsheet: it's really easy to use. https://t.co/JcM6TQDG4g

2022-08-17 12:53:26 CADR is the rate at which air is filtered: one powerful enough for the space gets better results. (See next tweet for calculation).CADR is listed at highest setting, also noisiest. If budget allows, higher CADR allows running at lower setting, less noise.https://t.co/Wt6udbxalf

2022-08-17 12:48:15 Another study confirming: HEPA works to filter viruses from the air, gimmicks unnecessary (and some even harmful).Which one to get for your space? It's straightforward: look only for HEPA, with a good CADR/noise ratio for one's budget. See next tweet for comparison chart. https://t.co/Rm2qwwMqyS

2022-08-16 21:07:46 @EthanZ I find it somewhat implausible that South Africa, which happens to have better record keeping, has high death rates and somehow has profound biological/immunological differences with neighboring countries that don't report as high death rates, but have weaker record keeping?

2022-08-16 21:03:25 @EthanZ The other obvious calculation is age-adjustment—maybe someone has the paper? Obviously, younger age structure will have a different mortality pattern. After age-adjustment to excess deaths, there should be a clearer picture to whether there is a big enough mystery or not.

2022-08-16 21:01:10 @EthanZ A couple of things. We know that many countries in Africa did have excess death waves, but not necessarily well-ascertained to cause. South Africa is an exception that it has relatively solid reporting of deaths. + https://t.co/nwrY2zycWP

2022-08-16 20:21:17 @EthanZ Though I'd say South Africa wasn't less affected... They had a tremendous death toll, one of the worst globally especially from Delta and Beta that hit the largely unvaccinated population. Population immunity against later waves, but at great cost. https://t.co/1QkolyaQMZ

2022-08-16 19:31:41 @BrendanNyhan That said, as someone originally from Turkey, I would like to disavow the crudité effort in strongest terms. If he were representative of the region, we'd be looking at ingredients for a proper meze selection, not large bags of carrots matched with pre-made guac. #notinmyname

2022-08-16 19:21:12 @BrendanNyhan Oz's already successful parents emigrated from Turkey in the 1950s, his dad was a surgeon, was born in the US, and is clearly secular in his life/outlook with Christian wife/kids.I'd say not really what creates the kind of backlash people from Turkey would need to worry about.

2022-08-15 16:14:39 @ejames_c

2022-08-15 14:45:47 RT @schwanksta: Oh, hey @propublica's news apps team is hiring -- again! We use our coding, design and data analysis skills to do deep inve…

2022-08-14 17:34:48 @RebeccaSolnit @Science_Party

2022-08-14 17:06:56 Also good reminder from @PepperMarion that expected Omicron boosters (with a new antigen) will improve the immune response. https://t.co/l5Lz5h9ahe

2022-08-14 17:03:25 Immunologists @VirusesImmunity and @PepperMarion answer questions. https://t.co/kFTcVRszWX https://t.co/A09IdUc1sY

2022-08-14 13:22:58 RT @donmoyn: As I note here, the inability of the public to see their policy preferences on the most pressing issue of the day - abortion a…

2022-08-13 13:25:03 RT @nytimesworld: Hitoshi Igarashi, the Japanese translator of “The Satanic Verses,” a novel by Salman Rushdie, was stabbed to death in 199…

2022-08-13 12:58:12 @zittrain It's a lot of people. You can easily look. They have histories, engage in detailed conversations, and tons of people reply to them with more praise, others raise points. It's very clearly people, and lots of them.

2022-08-13 12:48:40 There are a large number of accounts on Twitter openly praising the cowardly, craven attack on Salman Rushdie, even to thousands of retweets/likes. I bet it's similar on Facebook. Very easy to find, even in English.Many might be seeing the "we're appalled" posts. It's a bubble.

2022-08-13 12:38:07 @RebeccaSolnit @Science_Party Thanks! There is a free (and legal) Creative Commons copy of my book (which details all this, in light of social media) is at the bottom of this page. (A Paradise Built in Hell is referenced in the book, especially with regards to protest occupations!). https://t.co/7GlSlpt7LF

2022-08-12 18:39:34 RT @Moran_Lab: All FEMALE interviewees, and 2 of my favorite immunologists and people! @VirusesImmunity @PepperMarion Must read piece.Whe…

2022-08-11 21:04:31 @SuzannahDelo @DoctorMcKeever @JessMyrick

2022-08-11 17:00:55 So many families are suffering so much. US/UK/EU have a lot of leverage in this situation to push for relief for Egypt's political (and other) prisoners, especially before the world shows up there for a climate conference in November. https://t.co/xRsENS2gvO https://t.co/36reKdapsu

2022-08-11 16:10:24 “As we assess whether to issue rules &

2022-08-10 17:39:51 @DarthPetus @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey Not my issue if he took it up with actual immunologists—posting screenshots of other's papers that happen to use a term he also used to claim "I told you" may work on regular people who miss it's not use of (common) terms but citations/recognition that validate specific claims.

2022-08-10 16:51:07 Key new Long Covid study from @virusesimmunity and collaborators.tl

2022-08-10 15:59:37 (FWIW, I'm not evaluating the research: it's a modeling study with a very, very wide range of estimates, and thus huge uncertainty. We'd need high-quality serology studies for an empirical sense. Point is that *if* accepted as such, it implies population density is a key factor).

2022-08-10 15:50:04 @kallmemeg Best wishes to him, and to your family!

2022-08-10 15:25:17 @BuzzJohnG MERS is thought to have originated from bats, and then got established in camels. Intermediary species are not necessarily the same as the origin. https://t.co/QiEVC4NOic

2022-08-10 15:03:12 @CarlingTries Didn't become a pandemic.

2022-08-10 15:02:54 Another corollary (confirmed by other research) is that rural populations where spillovers that die out are common tend to have antibodies—hinders the virus.That's why a dense population center full of immunonaive people is such dangerous kindling.https://t.co/xSTE8xdj0q

2022-08-10 14:58:44 @LawlessKahlil Yeah, I actually talked to a lot of them! Seems clear that such spillovers are so common that they are necessary but nowhere near sufficient to spark pandemics—it's when the virus gets out in an immunonaive, dense and large population center that things become quickly dangerous.

2022-08-10 14:55:00 I wrote about this before. I think we were *due* for a bat coronavirus pandemic. Both the narrowly-avoided SARS one in 2003, MERS, and later research really suggested it was a matter of time but we didn't take it seriously enough. How to avoid another one remains a key issue.

2022-08-10 14:47:59 If bat coronavirus spillovers are this common, but new pandemics obviously not (we don't have one every year), it highlights the important role of cities and population density in sparking pandemics.The corollary of this research is rural spillovers are common but they die out. https://t.co/nJ85uDjrLO

2022-08-10 14:41:25 @AntibioticDoc Justified suspicion that public health authorities may drag their foot for a long time and deny things well-established by epidemiology and other evidence makes such jumpy reporting (which is the opposite problem: overclaiming from too little evidence) appear more credible, imo.

2022-08-10 14:39:30 @AntibioticDoc Yeah, unfortunately we saw a lot of public health authorities deny stuff even long, long after actual, widespread and global epidemiology pretty much made it obvious—see denial of centrality of airborne transmission as well as presymptomatic transmission. So a credibility issue.

2022-08-10 14:36:38 There's a wide range of "possible". I think it's better to *prepare* for possible scenarios than to make singular predictions. Yes, some scenarios are likelier than others, but why bet everything on it? We have many tools now, better to use them. https://t.co/nemepA193V

2022-08-10 14:29:10 The issue with sensationalized media/viral claims based on limited/prelim lab work is lack of follow-up or correction when actual data arrives.Makes people tune it all out.Even if there was solid data to warn with, who'd believe it after so many "overclaimsilence" cycles?

2022-08-10 14:18:32 If Omicron infection worsened immunity, we should have had cascading waves of higher severity. The empirical trend is the opposite.If Omicron provided none or very short-lived immunity, every country should have had equally big waves with Omicron versions. Opposite happened.

2022-08-10 14:12:35 Add Hong Kong to global, steady data: Omicron waves result in significant population immunity against future ones.It's better to avoid infection waves! But the idea Omicron infection wouldn't confer immunity, or even lower it, found no empirical legs.https://t.co/a2FR31diyx

2022-08-09 22:30:16 Based on private chats Facebook turned over, the police seized teen daugther and mom's laptops and phones, to prosecute them based on (pre-Roe) abortion laws.Now, post-Roe, this can happen to women just four weeks past-conception. Police can ask the tech companies for the data. https://t.co/UErHjkdjF6

2022-08-09 22:23:11 Before Roe was struck down, Facebook gave the police private messages between a mom and her teen daughter about abortion pills. They're now being prosecuted for abortion >

2022-08-09 20:23:14 NYT on the "slow death" in Egypt's prisons:"Many are held in filthy cells, subjected to routine torture and denied lifesaving medications".Thousands jailed without even a sham conviction. Why bother? Despite US/UK/EU leverage, there's little pressure.https://t.co/BXpy7wK09O https://t.co/9Qn6sdHrLI

2022-08-09 16:21:51 RT @jonathan_c_ong: We at @UMassAmherst #Communication are hiring in two super exciting areas: 1) Associate or Full Professor of Race, Medi…

2022-07-27 02:01:37 RT @roby_bhatt: I started med school 24 years ago

2022-07-27 00:36:47 @MarkLevineNYC I was just staring at the sky myself! Amazing

2022-07-26 23:11:41 RT @EricTopol: "Hundreds of thousands of [Evusheld] doses sit on shelves in hospitals and infusion centers across the country" while the va…

2022-07-26 17:05:11 RT @accessnow: Today is the 3rd day in a row that Egyptian authorities 'claim' that activist @alaa is refusing a family's visit.No letter…

2022-07-26 14:39:59 @eric_weinberger Things matter if those with power decide they matter...

2022-07-26 14:25:56 @ggatin Bad-faith whataboutism—carried out by every dictatorship and murderous regime as well as insincere individuals globally―can very easily be ignored because there is no global classroom teacher enforcing "must have perfect record before enforcing leverage for something good".

2022-07-26 14:13:31 I know too few care about wrongly-imprisoned democracy activists. And saving one person isn't saving everyone.But one person is one person.Alaa—well-known in the West— has been made into an example. They're torturing him to show that they can. US/UK/EU can choose to stop it.

2022-07-26 13:58:05 Egyptian activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah, imprisoned for a retweet for years under horrid conditions, denied consular visits despite UK citizenship, and on a hunger-strike for 115 days, is now incommunicado.UK, US and EU have much leverage here they're choosing not to exercise. https://t.co/Kruuf3PNSQ

2022-07-26 13:50:01 Stop me if you heard this one before.Wait-and-see attitude even to deploying vaccines that already exist.Getting tested subject to onerous bureaucracy.Vaccination slots fill within minutes of opening up.Cases then grow past point of containment.https://t.co/PvYQVajg3X https://t.co/9gZ6EJvdxq

2022-07-26 13:07:36 RT @Monasosh: Ok, Egyptian authorities claim @alaa is refusing our family visit, can the @UKinEgypt @GarethBayleyUK go visit him please an…

2022-07-26 03:44:42 RT @ddiamond: “The available vaccination slots were taken within seven minutes of being posted online.” @JoeKGoldstein @sharonNYT on the…

2022-07-25 21:40:09 RT @EricTopol: Every moderately to severely immunocompromised person should know about Evusheld, a preventive Rx. It's uncommonly prescribe…

2022-07-25 16:01:26 @origincanada @notdred @eliowa Yes they do. Very few of the affected kids were PCR positive for SCoV2, unlike other suspects present in all. You can’t rule out it as a secondary role in those few but even that wouldn’t make it the main driver. Also SCoV2 as main culprit would be better—we have vaccines for it.

2022-07-25 15:36:29 RT @Monasosh: The @FCDOGovUK ignoring all our communication since they met with @MfaEgypt@trussliz doesn't care about a British national,…

2022-07-25 14:37:58 A great summary from an expert: an adeno-associated virus (AAV2) plus adenovirus/herpesvirus *and* genetic susceptibility interacting.One only wishes this much effort went into solving more medical mysteries. Such mysteries aren't that rare.https://t.co/nQq4Kx8JSS

2022-07-25 14:28:28 @notdred @eliowa There's now two papers, not just one. https://t.co/eOcGMzI0Wr

2022-07-25 14:19:19 @jdkc816 I hope not! If someone remains a "true believer" of a hypothesis not looking empirically weaker, that's.. well, not science. We already know COVID can potentially have bad outcomes for children, no need to assume all other viruses are innocent. Epicycles are pretty, though. https://t.co/wFBJ931mGa

2022-07-25 14:11:21 Ah, there's a second paper, similar finding. Also AAV2 in liver and blood of almost all the affected children, but much rarer in controls. (Here, too, adenovirus and Herpesvirus are showing as as "helpers"—AAV2 needs "helpers" to replicate).https://t.co/Mf5wDlHLWN https://t.co/I4oEnM0vme

2022-07-25 14:01:51 We know viruses other than SARS-CoV-2 do cause a health burden, including occasional long-term or serious damage.We just confirmed that an earlier EBV infection is the likely cause of multiple sclerosis—decades later.HPV causes cancer.Eagerly a waiting RSV and EBV vaccines!

2022-07-25 13:57:08 Development in mystery pediatric hepatitis. So 9/9 kids PCR positive for adeno-associated AAV2, (zero in controls), plus genetic susceptibility. Herpesvirus as "helper".(Only 2/9 ve+ for SARS-CoV-2, 6/9 have prior exposure, matching population).https://t.co/mnnAKT9qZD https://t.co/XK4IvsNw46

2022-07-22 15:22:26 @MarkELindsay Interestingly, though, as you note, the fraud of this type is usually a single person/last minute because the culture against it is still very, very strong. People will blow that whistle, it's very hard to organize a conspiracy around it and keep it together. That's our line.

2022-07-22 15:21:10 @MarkELindsay Example: expanded academia. Many countries want "peer-review" of any kind for promotion: explosion in pay-to-publish borderline/real predatory journals.Nature/Cell/Science or bust in many fields, *and* high-trust protocol for review, assumes no fraud, no checks. Eventually...

2022-07-22 15:18:51 @MarkELindsay Academia fraud issue is a bit like security / early internet. A lot of stuff wasn't built in because TCP/IP is designed for a network with high internal trust (academics, military). But things have changed, the protocols have not. Pretty striking how well it still holds tbh.

2022-07-22 15:16:08 @MarkELindsay My recreational reading atm: it's great for this too. Fraud is *always* about structure.(In the Before Times, my "recreational" reading had a lot of pandemic and outbreak lit, now my "recreational" reading is books on sociology of interesting stuff.)https://t.co/tSvKt25xmL

2022-07-22 15:11:35 @MarkELindsay *puts on structural hat*We've seen this before! Peer review has weak defenses against outright, deliberate fraud. It works to the degree that it does because of academic incentives/cultures, and because fraud is assumed to be rare enough compared to cost of increasing friction.

2022-07-22 14:59:13 @isaac32767 I wish I had a better answer. Makes no sense to me.

2022-07-22 14:30:04 RT @IDEpiPhD: In year 3 of this pandemic and globally only 28% of older people &

2022-07-22 14:20:23 RT @peterstaley: As a longtime activist, I agree — @zeynep nails it here. The Internet has been a protest accelerant, but also allowed move…

2022-07-22 14:06:27 Seems clear closer match to strain provides more protection—we knew of Omicron in Nov 2021.Non-updated boosters surprisingly good, too.OTOH, chasing future strains may be futile.I think *all* of those argue for releasing updates as early as possible.https://t.co/QBkvUlLNn1

2022-07-22 14:01:15 @atlantictriangl At large scale, the "every two weeks" stuff appears clearly to be nowhere near reality whatsoever by any stretch.It's *possible* for a few to have a re-infection within a month especially when the variant changes (Delta to Omicron BA.1/2, for example).But there's also this. https://t.co/zpJjMOwLvM

2022-07-22 13:36:41 Epi and well-done studies converge:Vaccine protection against severity is high, durable. Variants can evolve to infect, but boosters add protection.Infection also induces immunity but comes with risks, varying with health and age.Argues for less circulation, more vaccines.

2022-07-22 13:15:11 @peterstaley Thank you so much! ACT UP remains a shining example during a period of great moral failure.And I have for real questions relating to some of that, concerning something current... Will ping. :-D

2022-07-22 13:13:08 Too few unvaccinated adults in Denmark to analyze. They also have good booster update, and targeted a second booster to those at-risk.Meanwhile, US lacks in outreach to people with two doses to get their third, and our tracking is so bad that much of our data is useless.

2022-07-22 13:05:38 Denmark BA.5 hospitalizations remained very low. BA.2 and BA.5 had the same rates, but when age-adjusted, BA.5 looks worse than BA.2 (similar, they note, as Delta was in their analyses).So few were hospitalized with BA.5 the confidence interval is large, but worth watching. https://t.co/nREjssjDiG

2022-07-22 12:52:58 Lancet preprint: Large Denmark BA.5 study. Results very similar to Qatar.Any prior Omicron infection among the vaccinated was highly protective against *any* BA.5 infection (93.6% VE).Previous Delta/Alpha protective, but less so (46.9% &

2022-07-22 12:30:37 RT @AlexSteffen: Not surprisingly, this @zeynep piece on why big protest movements don't work the way they used to is smart.https://t.co/

2022-07-22 04:39:06 @craignewmark

2022-07-22 03:23:07 @PhilipWallach

2022-07-22 02:53:12 @emilyw00

2022-07-22 01:32:38 @wanderer_jasnah Current life lessons on trying to figure stuff out still: "Always check the epi curve

2022-07-18 12:46:14 RT @sana2: Germany is rolling out the red carpet for Egyptian President al-Sisi, while my brother and tens of thousands others rot in jail.…

2022-07-18 12:44:16 RT @MazMHussain: This is really insane. It seems like the UAE kidnapped Khashoggi’s American lawyer while transiting through the country an…

2022-07-18 02:20:23 @Kosikutioner Yep, as your thread explains.

2022-07-17 17:51:14 @AbraarKaran Testing for clinical purposes versus testing/screening for public health—you'd think we hadn't just had the experience of a pandemic. Easier, wider mass testing is essential to public health, even if an individual clinician may of course need and appropriately use other tests.

2022-07-17 17:43:35 RT @DrJayVarma: Concur - This is another example of @US_FDA @CDCgov focusing on what we already know vs what we need to know &

2022-07-17 17:04:25 @DavidStaplesYEG My guesstimate (from many studies trying to get at this) is that Delta was worst at individual level severity, Omicron likely around or somewhat worse than the original variant, but much more infectious so an added dimension to its threat. Immunity+treatments blunted it in 2022.

2022-07-17 17:01:50 @DavidStaplesYEG It's a bit hard to compare intrinsic virulence ("all else equal severity") across variants across time—vaccines, treatments, population immunity change. Plus, if something is more transmissible, it can sicken more people=small percent of very very large number is a large number.

2022-07-17 16:58:27 @DavidStaplesYEG Ah, yes, great question! Pretty bad! So if we had gotten hit with Omicron in Spring 2020, it would have made that tragedy so much more catastrophic. See this thread for some useful distinctions on what impacts disease course. https://t.co/rzGPaDLD5a

2022-07-17 16:56:12 @carl_jurassic Those deaths are almost all the unvaccinated (overwhelmingly but not just) elderly, so indeed, yes, but tragically.

2022-07-17 16:50:06 @DavidStaplesYEG Some of the unvaccinated in Hong Kong without "any comorbidities" got very sick and some of them died, and some of them are left with lifelong complications—something they easily could have avoided.

2022-07-17 16:41:29 So at this stage, I think we either look at studies from tragic cases like Hong Kong, or the epi curve for indications.I'm wary of estimates from places with terrible record keeping like the US, especially when they are so obviously incompatible with large scale real life data.

2022-07-17 16:36:45 Why Hong Kong study important? Because the best way to isolate the impact of vaccines is to compare it to a group with no prior immunity. Otherwise those with prior infections in the comparison group make it very hard to estimate—especially true in the US with terrible tracking.

2022-07-17 15:18:55 @eric_weinberger Here's a useful table on that (linking to the end, scroll up for details). https://t.co/zGUtyL3ukc

2022-07-17 15:14:29 We have a pandemic. A novel virus to our immune system. We haven't even updated the vaccines yet, but they still produce very good results. They are available for free. They aren't the only tools we have, but among the easiest to deploy at scale.Why are we complaining?

2022-07-17 15:09:22 Many got their third shot sometime in 2021. A virus our immune system had never seen.For a healthy fifty-year old with three doses, yes, absolute risk of severe disease is already low, but fourth dose will improve *relative* outcomes. Seems fine to me. https://t.co/xYZYRt8HXo

2022-07-17 15:02:12 There's always more to learn, but there's also been so much research. Recent comprehensive review by two top immunologists:"Immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 is now a benchmark in human immunology for understanding antigen-specific T cell and B cell memory."https://t.co/UOyIQhbnrK https://t.co/XqrxwtIEpX

2022-07-17 14:55:12 What happens after the primary series of three? We need updates for multiple reasons, like for the flu. One reason is variants—antigenic evolution. The elderly have less robust immune systems—more in need of boosters. Plus, it's brand new to us, and added consideration.

2022-07-17 14:49:40 See this chart for childhood vaccines. Many vaccines are three doses in their primary series. Not unusual.I think that's the case for this one as well. The third dose isn't a "booster" per se, it's part of the primary series. US lagged terribly in this.https://t.co/CrcA6HnCPh

2022-07-17 14:46:19 Important Hong Kong study—they can measure true vaccine efficacy since no prior outbreak, hence no population immunity to confound the analyses like everywhere else."Three doses.. offered very high levels of protection against severe or fatal outcomes (97·9% [97·3–98·4])." https://t.co/qpHPaTgoAh https://t.co/q9hlALGEY6

2022-07-17 13:45:30 RT @ScottGottliebMD: Good @profshanecrotty review of immune memory following infection, vaccination, or both for SARS-CoV-2. Even after neu…

2022-07-16 05:13:14 RT @rishirajgoel: Wonderful summary of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity by @profshanecrotty @SetteLab

2022-07-16 04:53:07 RT @bkoo: This is great work by Bethany and the Dispatch but also makes you think how this could have played out if she had been part of ma…

2022-07-16 00:30:58 @hypoautonomic @notdred

2022-07-15 23:42:33 @wanderer_jasnah Welcome to algorithmic misinformation mishap—get in a long line.

2022-07-15 16:33:18 @dickens432 @delong They may need to take a short break from perusing yacht catalogs.

2022-07-15 12:58:43 RT @nytimesworld: Xi Jinping’s visit was met with criticism by overseas Uyghurs. “Photo ops with smiling Uyghurs hardly change the evidence…

2022-07-15 12:55:33 RT @Marc_Veld: Effectiveness of a fourth dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine against all-cause mortality in long-term care facility residents and…

2022-07-15 12:45:47 RT @andrew_croxford: Lots of lives, particularly the most elderly and those in care homes, can be saved with a fourth dose. https://t.co/5

2022-07-15 04:06:12 @About_to_Rock @RidleyDM Are you a parody? It says so in the article. But anyway, a few more seconds on Google will bring up many more articles. Anyway, I conclude you are a parody. https://t.co/t4knWLTDQV

2022-07-15 03:48:47 @About_to_Rock @RidleyDM Amazing how much stuff people make up with such confidence. Here's an article from 2016 on Japan's mask culture noting also worn *to protect others* —10 seconds on Google. (I was doing research in East Asia pre-pandemic so I didn't even need Google). https://t.co/lsdRUDe0Iw

2022-07-15 03:44:44 @BallouxFrancois In general, yes, rules should turn on and of with accepted, transparent benchmarks.But non-Twitter humans don't think "oh, a worker in a country with little sick leave and crappy health-care is concerned enough to wear that sign, sooo lemme dust of my lecture about niqab."

2022-07-15 03:40:58 @BallouxFrancois In this case, I think it's more like some number of people have turned into talking points human bots on Twitter.My post wasn't about restrictions and I muted the thread right about when more than a few regular Americans decided I needed to learn about masks, hijab and niqab?

2022-07-15 02:23:12 @Brennan_Doherty Yes. But I’m constantly contacted by patients whose doctors don’t know of the option.

2022-07-15 01:07:36 RT @PatWitt2432: @zeynep @CovidSafe_fyi now has an Evusheld Guide online to help people figure out whether they qualify for Evusheld and ho…

2022-07-14 19:40:57 RT @MarkLevineNYC: NEW: Big expansion in mobile sites in NYC where you can get a covid test and, if needed, receive paxlovid pills *on the…

2022-07-14 18:27:50 RT @nycHealthy: UPDATE: We will release over 8,000 first dose monkeypox vaccine appointments over the next two weeks. https://t.co/QNLjIY

2022-07-14 17:57:24 RT @Neurofourier: @zeynep It’s exhausting but I’ve been reminding everyone of the resources available along drawing up infographics. We are…

2022-07-14 17:46:16 Reminder that the immunocompromised in the United States have access to Evusheld. There's still a lot of supply, and many doctors/patients don't know about it. It's protective, to get ahead of time, for helping people whose immune systems don't otherwise make enough antibodies. https://t.co/PH3kjKJX4r

2022-07-14 17:12:09 Folks in replies acting like a request to consider wearing a mask voluntarily while shopping during high circulation in a country with little sick leave: no need to act like you've been asked to storm the beaches at Normandy.Many better ways to feel tough. Volunteer somewhere?

2022-07-14 16:43:52 @Brian_Orak @RidleyDM Thanks for letting me know Turkey, among others, is also in Asia and noticing that "many" doesn't mean "all".

2022-07-14 16:30:21 RT @jodieginsberg: 2. Call for the immediate release of the dozens of journalists in Egypt and in Saudi Arabia, including @AlaaAbdelfattah…

2022-07-14 15:25:27 @RidleyDM What on earth kind of misanthropic logic is that? It was already fairly normalized in many Asian countries to voluntarily wear a mask in public transportation during flu season, or if one was ill. Why on earth not? What's the upside of normalizing being a jerk?

2022-07-14 15:08:14 What did we do before? You know what Emergency Rooms did before?They had infrastructure that aggressively cleaned and exchanged the air. The ultimate way forward is to build more infrastructure, to get away from the culture wars and personal asks. But we are where we are.

2022-07-14 15:05:54 Not that complicated.I *do* believe high-quality masks dampen transmission odds, but would easily concede newer variants are harder to contain, hence Evusheld, vaccines, antivirals, HEPA/ventilation..But wearing one indoors while shopping is so simple.https://t.co/HV1SN5CDvR

2022-07-14 06:52:01 RT @limlouisa: Eight months in prison for attending two illegal gatherings and “offensive words”

2022-07-14 03:58:52 @BrianRWasik Infuriating tbh.

2022-07-14 03:57:59 RT @grouchybagels: And that's just the ones that were reported to police

2022-07-14 03:04:16 RT @MarkLevineNYC: Monkeypox cases so far in NYC:* 336 (32% of nat'l total)Vax the feds are sending NYC later this week:* 14,500 doses…

2022-07-14 02:54:41 RT @paimadhu: The visa hurdle: Why conference applicants from the global south can't always clear itImportant story by @mesoplodon @NPRGo…

2022-07-14 01:37:23 @Dr_D_Man @Ruby It’s not. What do you need to understand? See the thread referenced and more.

2022-07-13 20:05:58 RT @thefreedomi: Alaa Abd El-Fattah has spent most of the last decade behind bars for daring to fight for a better #Egypt. He's on his 102n…

2022-07-13 19:56:58 @StoneColdPillar Agree complacency is never good. Do you have a source for that data in that chart? This is what NYC is looking like from last December on (thus Omicron wave). Everyone incoming is tested, so ICU numbers are especially important to watch. ICU numbers in yellow. https://t.co/hJOhlRnUtW

2022-07-13 18:06:44 RT @ChrisMegerian: A lot of national pundits questioning whether this case was made up.But only a local reporter showed up to find out fo…

2022-07-13 18:00:13 @SMDelRay Here’s one thread with a useful table. https://t.co/q56UP8jf7z

2022-07-13 17:53:17 Caveats as above in the thread—note likely few immunocompromised in sample. Also, uses SGTF.One takeaway though is that a BA.1 or BA.2 vaccine would likely do really well against this current wave, especially, compared to the non-updated one.Paper:https://t.co/Pyuh61HHuW

2022-07-13 17:48:50 Another large-scale study from Qatar (mass PCR-tests so less bias.)They find previous Omicron infections provide significant cross-protection against BA.4/5 reinfections: ~79%.As usual, real life big epi data is the way to test questions raised from small-n prelim lab work. https://t.co/wJ9ftOdWC3

2022-07-13 16:28:50 @kearnsneuro @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 An update with age distribution https://t.co/ou1warzIiB

2022-07-13 15:42:04 @BhadeliaMD @WHCOVIDResponse Congratulations, thank you for doing this, and best of luck!

2022-07-13 14:16:43 RT @kk_levine: And another example of Uber basically doing “access research” which I guess is the academic version of “access journalism”.

2022-07-13 14:10:33 @edschenck @notdred That would be great. Also I wish we had labs reporting the CTs, too. It exists as data, not sure why it's not collected and analyzed.

2022-07-13 13:40:28 RT @Redistrict: NEW: the entire decline in competitive House seats from redistricting is attributable to GOP gerrymanders (esp. TX and GA),…

2022-07-13 13:39:29 @AaronRichterman I can’t remember an exception to this. https://t.co/S79XkKQaxx

2022-07-13 13:13:24 RT @AaronRichterman: Hmmm cross protection How about that https://t.co/9cR59WRVda

2022-07-13 02:00:42 @Jusrangers

2022-07-13 01:43:41 @notdred Pandemic lesson: Large scale real-life epi data >

2022-07-13 00:06:06 RT @AaronRichterman: Hmmm cross protection How about that https://t.co/9cR59WRVda

2022-07-12 22:04:14 RT @Laith_AbuRaddad: Protection of a prior infection against BA.4/BA.5 was modest when the previous infection involved a pre-Omicron varian…

2022-07-12 20:47:47 @LibertyRPF @jasoncrawford

2022-07-12 18:21:47 More on this from @edyong209. https://t.co/GzbGsJLfpY

2022-07-12 17:32:24 @LarsSanderGreen @AshishKJha46 Lack of money likely an issue. (Same as dearth of air filtration infrastructure updates: needs funds).

2022-07-12 17:31:34 I don’t know the details for this particular question but…. Congress not authorizing funds is likely a huge factor in all that is feasible on paper but we’re not doing. It’s not even cost effective because prevention is cheaper than addressing effects later. https://t.co/nsCfVfjXIQ

2022-07-12 15:39:49 RT @natematias: New leaks reveal Uber paid academics for reports to relieve heat from French &

2022-07-12 14:48:24 @_ppmv Here's what I *am* blocking you for: 1-Screenshots from that rando weirdo that obsessively lies about me

2022-07-12 14:36:14 @AaronRichterman "100 days to update". And bivalent ones seem to be doing so well!

2022-07-12 14:22:05 Of course it’s also possible none have been manufactured. I genuinely don’t know. The broader question is the speed of updates. It’s a pandemic! A faster schedule, at least at first, seems… warranted.

2022-07-12 14:13:56 @DFisman There’s also a lot of data about the dangers of viral infections during pregnancy from before. It’s an issue that we really failed on, imo. (Even some pregnant women in my broader social network were wary of the vaccine! Even as they risked the infection every day!)

2022-07-12 14:10:42 The one updated for BA.1 does better against BA.4/5 than the non-updated one. Which is exactly what we would expect, but there’s data as well.Why not let willing people have this one as a booster *if* there’s already manufactured doses of it? https://t.co/3nVJ0IwHvO

2022-07-12 14:06:34 Why not release the BA.1 bivalent vaccines that Moderna seems to have already made *now*, in addition to what @AshishKJha46 says below about high-quality masks and testing? Am I misunderstanding that they already manufactured some? The data looks great. Why let it go unused? https://t.co/SuMAl7aZqs

2022-07-12 13:57:30 RT @AndrewBuncombe: Relatives urge Biden to raise cases of political prisoners when he travels to Middle East @Independent @sana2 @alaa @PO…

2022-07-12 13:42:07 @NKinNewEng That one is but a recent example but see above. The conceptual framework above is clearly not about a single thing. A single piece that went viral wouldn’t warrant all that. It’s much more than a few anon accounts.

2022-07-12 13:34:48 @jeremychrysler @AudacityOfHoops @BillHanage @michaelmina_lab Upgrading our infrastructure and modifying habits would be a good outcome. Alas…

2022-07-12 13:32:04 @NKinNewEng It’s not about a single piece. And these are my conclusions from trying to systematically study how dissent and collect the action works in the digital era. Take it as such. (Of course, I respect objections and especially examples to the contrary if you’d like to provide some).

2022-07-12 03:21:23 @wanderer_jasnah

2022-07-11 16:58:18 @kearnsneuro @michaelmina_lab @jeremychrysler @BillHanage Essentially a very frustrating career. I've so much respect for the few who tried anyway. Same story with chronic post-viral stuff. A promising PhD choosing this path is going to hit a lot of roadblocks, and not as many Nature/Science/Cell pubs. Much respect to those who tried.

2022-07-11 16:55:52 @kearnsneuro @michaelmina_lab @jeremychrysler @BillHanage It somewhat resembles stories scientists studying airborne transmission of viruses. Desk rejections of good studies—allegedly we already know the answer. Those studies are small but can’t get funded for bigger—asked where’s prior pubs? Well, desk-rejected without consideration.

2022-07-11 16:49:16 @ValeBodi @kearnsneuro @michaelmina_lab @jeremychrysler @BillHanage @nathavindra @NIH @IRPatNIH @MEActNet Indeed.

2022-07-11 16:28:52 @ValeBodi @kearnsneuro @michaelmina_lab @jeremychrysler @BillHanage @nathavindra @NIH @IRPatNIH @MEActNet Yes, I've been talking to scientists in that team (and others) who are clearly brilliant and dedicated, and yet... So much work is necessary, so few people and little resources. I'm sorry things have been so frustratingly slow.

2022-07-11 16:24:41 @LongCovidKris I’m so sorry.

2022-07-11 16:23:25 @gregggonsalves

2022-07-11 16:15:15 "This time, we have a chance to get things right and do right for ourselves and others. I hope we rise to the challenge. There is no time to lose." Read @gregggonsalves on Monkeypox and responding now and responding globally. https://t.co/y9o2WrkvYf

2022-07-11 16:07:09 Why much of Twitter and even media feels like policy-based-evidence driving it?This combination:1-Still lacking good estimates of key indicators

2022-07-11 16:02:19 @KT_So_It_Goes If you see the thread, the R0 of Omicron is likely less than Delta, but yes that particular measure not that relevant in the current moment because there's population immunity *and* it is spreading mostly by evading antibodies, and clearly is pretty transmissible as things stand.

2022-07-11 15:44:12 @KT_So_It_Goes My day scanning scientific papers, media, Twitter:1-Wait, *still* no good estimate for this *basic, important number*?2-Wait, paper in (top outlet/CDC) claims what? If true, where's the action? If false, where's the correction?3-Wait, why are we making up numbers?

2022-07-11 15:38:54 @KT_So_It_Goes Yeah, R0 is barely relevant now. (Rt looks ~1.2 atm). We have made-up numbers going viral. We also have high-prestige preprints/pubs with extraordinary numbers with little action to suggest anyone believes them?*And* *yet* we also still lack some basic surveillance numbers.

2022-07-11 15:27:59 @dianaarcher_14 @Dr_D_Man @Ruby All Omicrons evade antibodies and cause symptomatic infections. I don’t know what you mean by it acts like Delta.

2022-07-11 14:56:45 @CureCFS It's frustrating that long-term patients like you don't have these basic answers, but hoping the attention to Long Covid can (maybe) get us to look at the causal pathway for this as well—maybe apple-watch type data or even a true RCT (pay! people! to! rest!) might provide clues.

2022-07-11 14:54:42 @CureCFS I don't know, and haven't seen data that alllows figuring out if potential signs of PEM in (not yet Long Covid) people is a predictor, symptom or trigger. Still, the sensible thing seems to learn to recognize it if it does happen, and see if pacing helps lower odds of chronicity.

2022-07-11 14:51:51 @Dr_D_Man @Ruby That number isn't true. Yes, Guardian published it, and some credentialed people used but it's not anywhere near true. First version killed many with less spread because we had no vaccines. Omicron spreads more, can be a threat without making up numbers. https://t.co/N5nKFmeiOu

2022-07-11 14:42:28 @kearnsneuro @michaelmina_lab @jeremychrysler @BillHanage Yeah, and the data is there but in bits and pieces... I'm talking to a lot nowadays to scientists for whom this was clear even before COVID now and they have many tales of "can't get funded" and "nobody seems to care." Delayed effects are always a harder sell.

2022-07-11 12:21:18 @DKThomp Answer obvious, no?

2022-07-11 05:21:19 Also the current r(effective) looks to be around ~1.2 according to various estimates? That means it’s spreading! Not good. But hard to square real life epi data with R0 of Omicron even in double digits, let alone claims of 18. Read more for why not. https://t.co/JC2OHH1lxD

2022-07-11 04:52:56 @MJaiclin Concussions are terrible!

2022-07-11 04:52:20 @MarkDSimmons Current R(effective) is about 1.2-1.5. It’s likely not that low an R0 either. We’re not 100% immunonaive or back to 2020 either.

2022-07-09 17:11:36 RT @AmnestyBrighton: Our @AmnestyBrighton action to help #FreeAlaa today.One ribbon for each day of his hunger strike in prison in #Egypt…

2022-07-09 15:30:25 @Justin_Ling Yep.

2022-07-09 15:15:32 @BellaRudd1 No, no, yours is awesome. Thank you!

2022-07-09 14:57:36 Also had enough of "screenshot/tweet from from many months ago says something about then" gotcha games.Accountability is good, but shitposting games aren't accountability.So I'm blocking people with so much time to waste so they do that here all day to *anyone*. Suggest same.

2022-07-09 14:49:52 Finally, in an effort to stop contributing to things I believe are unhelpful, I'm now liberally blocking snarky quote-tweets. (Say something critical but substantive, okay... Snark that misrepresents: block. Twitter should kill the quote-*single*-tweet but muh engagement).

2022-07-09 14:47:01 3-For the many experts on or not on social media? Longform coheherent analyses of *basic* stuff that floats around on social media would be great. Threads get lost via quote-tweeting, screenshot dunking etc.It's not Nature/Science/Cell, but it's crucial public service.

2022-07-09 14:41:52 2-There's too little reporting on the workplace issues. There's a lot of arguing/fighting about things that coalesce around lifestyle issues, but not that much about the lives and conditions of people who go to work with little protections. I wish there was more just documenting.

2022-07-09 14:39:49 1-A blog interviewing a Long Covid patient per day would be useful.There's confusion on definition, prevalence, etc. That's hard.But the truth of those suffering is concrete and should be in no doubt. We should lift their voices in longform, and in a steady, organized manner.

2022-07-09 14:36:39 Here you might say, "what action"? We're all tweeting here. Yep, that's true. Do I have any concrete suggestions? A few, writing long form.But I do have a few concrete suggestions for those similarly frustrated in next few tweets, my two cents on what anyone can do.

2022-07-09 14:34:34 So this is my answer to why there should be attention to misinformation that may call for mitigations/actions one agrees with—not because it's the same as authorities not being forthright or active but *exactly* because that disporportionately hurts trying to coalesce for action.

2022-07-09 14:33:09 Also a NYT interview I did last month, on how the pandemic has become a tragic "choose-your-own-adventure", as everything seems so muddled and confusing to so many.Those in power are responsible. No doubt.The question here is how best to make progress.https://t.co/85rNRHYvIk https://t.co/tAl6L1TVW5

2022-07-09 14:29:03 So to sum up, when public health authorities say something I believe to be incorrect, not recommending N95s as higher protection, dissing on rapid tests, etc., of course I try to write an article about it.A recent NYT piece of mine, from the Omicron era.https://t.co/lYbXrEKVT8 https://t.co/AyiMOroDQ4

2022-07-09 14:25:19 So of course I don't spend most of my time trying to correct this or that article (even if it is full of outright nonsense) that is calling for mitigations that I may agree with—but I do believe the confusing information environment contributes to inaction, which I do care about.

2022-07-09 14:23:23 In combination, I believe this has created an additional layer to "are you telling me this to get me to something"—because people feel like that's what happened from authorities.I think that makes pandemic "dissident" credibility *extra potent*—if it can be maintained, though.

2022-07-09 14:21:33 Plus, long, sordid history of authorities and corporations sowing fear to sell products or crackdowns.(Exaggerations or lies about looting to crack down on people altruistically trying to organize mutual aid, many examples including Hurricane Katrina. Drug marketing, etc.).

2022-07-09 14:18:38 A few pandemic specific points.People are very justifiably miffed that public health authorities may have been tweaking info to guide behavior. ("Masks don't work", because we don't have them, "rapid tests not necessary to end isolation", well also because we don't have them.)

2022-07-09 14:14:54 I hope it's clear this is not "Oh, no someone is wrong on the internet" eggheadedness (can happen) or academic nitpicking (ditto).Gatekeepers can no longer smother information, but *someone* has to vet information. Without knowing what to believe, collective action is harder.

2022-07-09 14:12:08 So pandemic. I spend most of my time criticizing lack of action and trying to establish credibility for actions. Masks, airborne protections, antivirals, etc.So why care about misinformation *in favor* of those? Because it feeds into the same confusion that benefits inaction.

2022-07-09 14:07:38 In the past, correct information was smothered. Thus, dissidents tried to get the information out.Now, information is out there but action is lagging partly people can't figure out what's credible—that's why it's asymmetrically important for dissidents to preserve credibility.

2022-07-09 14:04:51 It's such an effective tactic Russian authorities do it on purpose: spread confusing misinformation in the dissident sphere with the goal of *paralyzing* the population via hitting the *credibility* of dissidents. It works, unfortunately.It can also just happen organically.

2022-07-09 04:01:55 @bijans Not the useful kind of doctor, but how do you not go to the ER immediately with that 180/120 BP? Isn't that the hypertensive crisis cutoff? 911 territory? Best of luck.

2022-07-08 22:29:30 RT @ftrain: The Met has an exhibition of painted reconstructions of ancient statues and it's absolutely bananacakes. I love it very much an…

2022-07-08 21:57:05 @bXLpedestrian Not sure the issue with your UK data? If had lower viral load, yeah that's what you'd expect? Same as unvaccinated? UK doesn't vaccinate the young as well?

2022-07-08 21:54:31 @bXLpedestrian EHRs (billing codes) and VA have a lot more issues than selection bias, and the VA studies haven't been that great in terms of presenting what they are actually doing in my view. But can deep dive into their supplements to figure some of the bad presentation part—can't fix rest.

2022-07-08 21:34:08 @MikeIsaac Extra bonus points for "it's five o'clock on the Acela Corridor" release timing.

2022-07-08 21:25:20 @dave_crispin What on earth have you read and where?

2022-07-08 21:23:34 @sciencefirstok @mr_raiderMD I think the lack of immunocompromised people is probably the biggest caveat—that population is vulnerable regardless of age effects and probably not represented here much.

2022-07-08 21:22:24 @sciencefirstok @mr_raiderMD The first is the point of the study—we already have many studies with vaccinated cohorts.The demographics does lean young (as noted in thread—agree there) but it's what bulk of population in most countries are, and they've looked at their older smaller cohort (similar results).

2022-07-08 20:52:20 Another essay by immunologist @sigallab on the same topic in Nature. Both this one and the one above do an excellent job of covering the conceptual ground for the multiple dynamics on this variants/severity/reinfection debate. (Non-debate, really.)https://t.co/RLvagsJMor

2022-07-08 20:47:26 Re-upping an essay that I tweet out a lot, that does a great job unpacking inherent virulence, variants and immunity. There are multiple, separate dynamics at play when discussing how a person experiences an illness from an infection. https://t.co/rzGPaDLD5a

2022-07-08 20:43:07 Adding: No, don't have data yet on BA.4/5—too soon.Note variants can have different intrinsic severity—much evidence Delta more severe than Omicron—and that this is *NOT* selected for: can go up or down.Separately, it's immunity lowering average acute severity—all else equal.

2022-07-08 20:10:22 @treylorswift People should go get vaccinated.

2022-07-08 20:09:19 @bXLpedestrian Definitions are too broad and we're trying to repurpose unsuitable data, EHR from VA are very skewed in multiple ways, and the studies I've seen are running away from explaining what they are actually doing, instead of explaining. Better data/definitions would be welcome.

2022-07-08 20:07:56 @bXLpedestrian The non-hospitalized in the VA study aren't generalizable either, though. It's EHR (with well-understood biases towards sicker patients/more detection upon interaction) *and* VA—really a double whammy for generalizable causal inference. Maybe can be treated as worst case limit?

2022-07-08 18:09:46 @marick @obiquody

2022-07-08 17:36:05 @APazyryk That’s not this paper.

2022-07-08 17:09:33 @mr_raiderMD The VA studies are useful if conditional probability/selection is taken into account: this is what happens to not just people who are older, but who are older *and* frail and get more sick so they have hospital interactions. It's not generalizable at all, but is useful for that.

2022-07-08 17:08:11 @mr_raiderMD Yeah. For VE: tragedy in Hong Kong of unvaccinated elderly. For transmissibility, small-scale longitudinal controlled work like NBA was useful. Qatar gives us the actual picture on reinfections, with mass-PCR, with caveat results for older will be in same direction but weaker.+

2022-07-08 17:05:57 @colbycosh It's Twitter so I'm not going to summarize Popper either, but I've obviously read Popper, and am quoting Lakatos here rather than Popper for a reason.

2022-07-08 17:00:39 @colbycosh I am saying both that Lakatos isn't warmed over Popper, and even the text I presented really isn't that Popperian. (Which would have been "oh, wait this is falsified let's jump ship" which nobody does, and wouldn't even be that workable as presented by Popper).

2022-07-07 03:20:36 @LongDesertTrain @BenMazer @jbakcoleman On the other hand agree, we should clearly update as soon as we can because there is room to improve, but even non-updated boosters help with infections. It doesn’t make sense for them to help that much was infections but not against severity.

2022-07-07 03:18:57 @LongDesertTrain @BenMazer @jbakcoleman US severity estimates are clearly undercounting the seropositivity though. If protection against severe disease was that low, we would’ve had bodies in the streets this winter in NYC. About half the city got infected, that’s about 4 million people. Epi data >

2022-07-07 03:16:02 @LongDesertTrain @BenMazer @jbakcoleman On the one hand yes the severe disease has big confidence intervals, as noted, because of the population structure but the infection numbers will hold. The age group is a very important one, especially for transmission. There’s also a lot of congregate living among the workers. https://t.co/AYng12QXNx

2022-07-07 02:37:44 @DGBassani @svscarpino Most variants suspected to have evolved from chronic infection, a single individual? At least Omicron, very strongly. Alpha etc., too. They do spread quite easily when people go back to more regular life but they don’t seem to evolve because of vaccine/non-vaccine population mix?

2022-07-07 00:22:46 @badger_dave_ @CorsIAQ @m_scribe Yeay

2022-07-07 00:11:09 I don't know if it will be an annual update like flu, but, fine!If it's twice a year, fine!If we need to also build infrastructure to clean the air and lessen COVID, RSV and flu! Also more than fine!Infectious diseases have stalked humanity forever. Let's use tools we have.

2022-07-07 00:07:20 New variant or antibody waning means more breakthroughs. Severity holds better. But we haven't updated even once yet! There's work on pan-, nasal- and mixed boosting, too.But, if we need frequent vaxxes and mitigating airborne transmission? Sign me up.https://t.co/201sEtrGxi

2022-07-06 23:27:47 RT @CorsIAQ: Really nice article on ways to reduce inhalation dose of virus-laden respiratory aerosol particles to lower risk of COVID-19 i…

2022-07-06 23:25:41 @avacado_pits Yes, Fall.

2022-07-06 23:24:59 I know none of this will surprise the immunologists, but there's a lot of confusion between "vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is lower", falsely interpreting that to mean vaccines aren't working, or that boosters won't help. Plus, booster helped even with infection!

2022-07-06 23:22:42 Note that severity was low (population with good vaccine coverage, some prior infections) so the confidence intervals are large for severe/fatal, but even there, the direction of effect of boosters is clear.But just less infection is great! Boosters help with that.

2022-07-06 23:20:05 Especially note a booster dose produced *additional* benefit even in people previously infected.I encounter people who believe they don't need a booster if they had an infection.This study adds to the evidence that, even then, a booster is beneficial.https://t.co/ylBGrmezIk https://t.co/fTNQKGzwbs

2022-07-06 23:16:19 NEJM study from Qatar that does mass-PCR testing—less bias.Three doses of vaccines conferred strong protection even against infection. Plus: "Previous infection, vaccination, and hybrid immunity all showed strong effectiveness (>

2022-07-06 23:03:34 @TinctureOfMuse @MuseumofLondon I think you meant @ZeyArkeoloji? I’m glad it was great, whatever it was.

2022-07-06 19:40:16 @Laurie_Garrett @trishgreenhalgh It’s a bit similar to the way people would falsely claim that the fact that the virus was very small meant masks wouldn’t work. (Viruses don’t travel alone so their size isn’t what determines filtration—and there’s other biophysical processes involved). Thanks!

2022-07-06 19:38:32 @Laurie_Garrett @trishgreenhalgh I think it’s important to be correct about this because I keep hearing people saying they’re not useful—confusing efficacy against symptomatic infection with everything else the vaccines help with—and no need for boosters etc. It has become a key anti-vaccination talking point.

2022-07-06 19:36:50 @Laurie_Garrett @trishgreenhalgh I agree the situation in China could get dire but it’s not true that the Chinese vaccines are “near-zero activity”. They aren’t good at preventing breakthroughs caused by antibody evasion, but still do a substantial job for preventing severity, as per high-quality HK research. https://t.co/GZzeWy765B

2022-07-06 19:30:13 RT @paulmasonnews: Egypt's Foreign Minister will meet @trussliz this week. There can be only one outcome: British citizen and political pri…

2022-07-06 19:29:59 RT @MarshadeCordova: I wrote to the Egyptian Foreign Minister, who visted London this week, to urge him to release British citizen Alaa Abd…

2022-07-06 17:19:01 @AaronRichterman @notdred @GYamey @wsbgnl But let's add the other version: the nonsstop "don't panic" lecturing. I've tried to push hard against that too, has been a consistent part of my writings about this. Absolutely not one-sided issue for many (in my corner of the world) concerned about #2. https://t.co/u5EC3sA8pP

2022-07-05 23:48:49 @dianaberrent That team at NIH is a national treasure. Fund them. Do some research on how to clone them.

2022-07-05 23:32:08 RT @Debunk_the_Funk: Yep. @GVDBossche is still wrong. Vaccines have drastically reduced COVID hospitalizations and deaths despite the highe…

2022-07-05 23:27:02 RT @awgaffney: So what will happen when up to 15 million people lose Medicaid coverage? What will happen to the 30 million uninsured? The…

2022-07-05 20:54:45 RT @dodgerman: Two of the victims of the Highland Park shooting: Kevin and Irina McCarthy. Their little Aiden has lost both parents. The tw…

2022-07-05 20:41:42 RT @xu_xiuzhong: A pdf of today's article in the @Australian TLDR: Last year, after writing articles on China for @aspi_icpc @nytimes and…

2022-07-05 20:27:47 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Asked on @CNN today to describe @alaa Cambridge Professor @khaledfahmy11 said:“I think he’s one of the most original th…

2022-07-05 20:14:17 @michael_mcleary https://t.co/kDmV9Dn2M4

2022-07-05 20:13:08 RT @GYamey: “Early vaccination is great”

2022-07-05 19:58:45 @ArisKatzourakis @kallmemeg It will again be Ukrai—, oh wait you said don’t?

2022-07-05 19:41:55 @SonnyCrockett04 @michael_mcleary This isn’t true. Of course antibodies matter. Severity is low in this age, but not zero. Making it lower makes sense. Viral infections can have long term effects. Also every pediatrician and every immunologist I know—and I know many—have rushed to vaccinate their under 5 children

2022-07-05 19:28:48 @RobertS83007261 I was talking with an MD friend. He keeps to vaccination schedule even if the baby/toddler has, say, acute pneumonia etc. He knows some haunting examples of a kid getting infected in that one month “let’s wait” period with something horrific. Rare maybe but real to that family.

2022-07-05 19:22:32 RT @JenniferNuzzo: It would be helpful to understand what is limiting this. I'd be surprised if it were testing capacity at lab. Transport…

2022-07-05 19:22:22 @JenniferNuzzo It’s maddening.

2022-07-05 19:18:39 Let me add this here. Makes sense to vaccinate children as early as possible, even if it’s possible to shield them for now. If they can’t be shielded? Also an argument for vaccinating them as soon as possible.There is a reason we do so many childhood vaccinations so early. https://t.co/5Ou0zU5tn5

2022-07-05 19:13:30 @michael_mcleary @SonnyCrockett04 So I think one should vaccinate children at first opportunity even if it’s possible to shield them, in case they later get exposed, and also if it’s not possible to shield them now because of high circulation or life circumstances. Same outcome.

2022-07-05 19:11:47 @michael_mcleary @SonnyCrockett04 I don’t know what percent, but given how much exposure there is, it’s a strong reason to vaccinate the children. If we get our act together and reduce exposure now, it’s a strong reason to vaccinate the children so they don’t get an unvaccinated infection later if it comes back.

2022-07-05 19:10:15 @MarkELindsay (The worst part is I can think of a dozen things to truly worry about, and many reasons to recommend avoiding infections *and* pushing for much more mitigations, without making claims that make no sense in light of clear, large-scale empirical evidence across the whole planet.)

2022-07-05 19:05:58 @MarkELindsay What would *real life* *large scale* data that does exist look like if this claim were true? Underrated super powerful one trick pony for causal inference across fields. https://t.co/R72SBzPmck

2022-07-05 19:02:03 @MarkELindsay “Not much airborne transmission” “If so, actual epi data wouldn’t look like this”“Vaccines no longer protect much against severity”“If so, actual epi data wouldn’t look like this”“Past infection dampens future immunity”“If so, actual epi data wouldn’t look like this”

2022-07-05 18:49:19 @streever Personally I think of it as the first shot being the most useful, if it comes before an infection. A delay risks an unvaccinated infection. There is a wave now.

2022-07-05 18:30:11 @streever I can’t tell you what to do but if it were me, I would get the first available vaccine. Timing matters, too.

2022-07-05 17:53:58 @AltMiddlePeds @michaelmina_lab There was intense pushback against our mild piece for quick adaptive trials for dose-sparing. People with credentials went on a scorched earth campaign against it—and me. We didn’t try, and people who could’ve been saved got sick or died—post-pandemic paper to calculate numbers.

2022-07-05 16:22:02 @michaelmina_lab And there was a scorched earth campaign against the idea and that oped by a lot of people. Poisoned the well. So, the US didn’t do it. Canada and many other countries did dose-sparing, and demonstrably saved many lives.

2022-07-05 16:14:44 @dylanhmorris It’s now policy-based evidence across the spectrum. Public health authorities do it. Factions with policy preferences do it.Maybe some justify it with a distorted,“scientific choices are political”? True but not for, say, “germ theory is fake and illness is punishment for sin.”

2022-07-05 14:25:51 @notdred https://t.co/pRs1xP1uBH

2022-07-05 12:32:25 An excellent thread from a UNC epidemiologist on why she vaccinated her toddler.I’d also add that risks (for many viral infections) go up with age. If a kid is unvaccinated and avoids it, but then gets infected later in life, risks are much higher.Early vaccination is great! https://t.co/IZwqCojzWB

2022-07-05 12:17:03 RT @rachel_cheung1: 3 people I spoke to confirmed the police reports leaked this week, as a sample of a massive Chinese police database bei…

2022-07-05 05:24:10 RT @ScottGottliebMD: Elegant scientific work providing more support for view that chronic SARS-CoV-2 infection of immunocompromised individ…

2022-07-05 01:17:31 Indeed.Seeking infamy is a well-documented path to how some unhinged individual picks up a gun to murder. Social media amplification plays an increasing role.I wrote a lot about this over the years. Below is another.Don’t amplify them on their terms.https://t.co/O5Gy81JudA https://t.co/D6So5Jkyax

2022-07-05 00:33:33 @MyLifeAsABook @RonFilipkowski

2022-07-04 23:10:56 @ABuermeyer @alt37486 @WryWryWry3 @jbakcoleman @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @kallmemeg Thank you for the kind words!

2022-07-04 21:29:42 @AndresFreundPol @AndrewJacobsNYT @kprather88? @linseymarr?

2022-07-04 21:25:33 Also a great article on N95 alternatives that are reusable and, as the article notes, many medical personnel find more comfortable, by @AndrewJacobsNYT https://t.co/Lq3VxZpREW https://t.co/fH1OjtSfzQ

2022-07-04 21:22:13 A *really* solid piece on the whys and the whens of the vaccine update, by @benjmueller. The summary: an update is necessary, we need a clear process to do it faster, and earlier availability is better than strain chasing though faster would help *both*. https://t.co/I2nXEklhzH

2022-07-04 21:05:43 RT @DavidLammy: Alaa Abd el-Fattah, a British citizen and brave voice for democracy, is in prison in Egypt for sharing a Facebook post.He…

2022-07-04 19:00:27 @alt37486 @jbakcoleman @WryWryWry3 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg I just want to keep ignoring the liars, and will occasionally reply to people they conned! That’s all. I have work to do that’s hopefully of actual help! Thanks, though.

2022-07-04 18:58:53 @alt37486 @jbakcoleman @WryWryWry3 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg Nah, I’m good. Lisa’s crew is just lying shitposters, not people lashing out in grief. My inbox is full of people telling me they masked up early, used N95s &

2022-07-04 18:44:54 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Egypt’s Foreign Minister is in London, Alaa’s life hangs in the balance. Join @alaa’s sisters at @FCDOGovUK Mon 4th Jul…

2022-07-04 18:41:31 @alt37486 @jbakcoleman @WryWryWry3 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg I am again asking you to read anything I have written, for more than two years, in very high profile outlets, without a PHD in most relevant fields which made it harder for me. Constant scathing criticisms of those institutions. I really can’t keep answering lies about me. Ok?

2022-07-04 18:24:19 @alt37486 @WryWryWry3 @jbakcoleman @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg My point on credentials was always: fine, then stop obsessively tweeting lies about *me*, and go engage the many *immunologists* on Twitter to try to convince them about your theories and COVID papers that they are not citing or backing up.The rest isn't my problem. I'm *done.*

2022-07-04 18:22:01 @alt37486 @WryWryWry3 @jbakcoleman @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg True, I'm short on credentials.See Lisa's crew mocking me for saying *in a reply few would see* I took career risks without credentials, to say whining about rudeness when no immunologist will substantively cite him was, meh.Next, NYT on what happened then.What did they do? https://t.co/BVsJGpE5es

2022-07-04 17:09:19 @tia_loret @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Last month. Harlem north. Please do note I’m not dismissing the reality of the ongoing issues at all or what the future will bring. I think we should also check on nursing homes (I try). Official statistics are usually delayed, we need proactive monitoring too of early signs.

2022-07-04 16:27:14 @kallmemeg @JHowardBrainMD @LabMuffin Thank you. Indeed I’d say wording could be a little better, but I think we should just ask people before assuming. It’s hard to constantly defensively tweet and think about how things might sound out of context. We all have a tweet that’s easy to misread!

2022-07-04 14:52:41 @kallmemeg @LabMuffin @JHowardBrainMD I am very pro child vaccination and never encountered of her as against that—no need to go about it like this even in disagreements.

2022-07-04 14:51:30 @kallmemeg @LabMuffin @JHowardBrainMD I agree this is not only unhelpful, constant bad faith reading isn’t good for clear thinking. @JHowardBrainMD, remember the Jay/Deepta confusion that had you condemning basic, true immunology because you mixed up the source? You can reply to her, if you think wording wasn’t good.

2022-07-04 14:31:58 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi So that's a Twitter type response to the question, and I think much of this is better longform (and I'm working on all of that as fast as I can, honestly).

2022-07-04 14:31:08 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi OTOH, nonsensical scientific claims on Twitter *and* sometimes bad science coming from CDC and/or high-prestige outlets *that does deserve criticism* because it obviously doesn't match reality are an obstacle because people have lives and experiences. They can see. They tune out.

2022-07-04 14:28:24 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi So if I had a wish-list of what would help? People here *could* report. Start a blog, interview a Long Covid patient per day. Document how they are not getting insurance rejections. Workplace interviews on lack of protections. Campaign for paid sick leave... Stuff like that.

2022-07-04 14:26:07 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi I'm working on long form versions of some of these. They take so much time to write partly because when I want to write about some of these, I find *so little* deep reporting on the topic. So the "column" turns into me doing primary research/outreach. Lots of effort.

2022-07-04 14:24:23 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi From there, you might get a means to formulate and push for asks.All Twitter talks about is masks, it seems. I've written so much about that! But I don't talk about masks as much now since seems *everyone else* talks about nothing but—there's more to talk about that's neglected.

2022-07-04 14:21:39 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi So I would want: a proper documentation of ongoing risks/harms and their distribution *and* a way to match the concerned people with top-notch immunologists/epis in the field who are far, far from minimizers but won't make nonsensical claims that sometimes get popular on Twitter.

2022-07-04 14:19:46 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi For ex, case severity rates have clearly gone way down, the way actual immunologists always said they would with population immunity (from vax and infection) but the ones I talk with a lot *never* said that would mean everything was fine—both points get misinterpreted a lot.

2022-07-04 14:18:02 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Meanwhile, and I'll say this to consternation, there's a lot of really "out there" scientific claims about COVID on Twitter. Some are just incorrect/weak papers, some are papers interpreted with spin on purpose or by people without the background, and some just seem made up.

2022-07-04 14:15:37 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Also, COVID risks are very unequally distributed. "Let's order take out to help out!". Meanwhile, line cooks were among the most likely to die of COVID.Workplace protections, infrastructure investment, insurance/care issues for people with Long COVID, etc. all neglected.

2022-07-04 14:13:52 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi On the other hand, there is a tradition of (baseless) alarmism or inciting exaggerated fears (you see this in commercial ads a lot) of trying to scare people to adjust their behavior. Public health does this, too, at times. They message for behavior, rather than inform/empower.

2022-07-04 14:12:37 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi I think we've seen this the whole pandemic, and they still do it. "Don't panic about Monkeypox." Fine, tell us what you're doing? We don't even have proper surveillance or testing, and we're already getting lectured about our emotions? Yeah, standard response, unfortunately.

2022-07-04 14:11:28 @micah_arsham @teavangelize @wsbgnl @kallmemeg @wanderer_jasnah @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Soo yeah "don't panic" and "don't be alarmed" are standard repertoires from the elites/authorities to diasters and very often, they make things *worse* because they baselessly fear looting when there is none, when in fact people are altruistically helping each other out. +

2022-07-04 14:06:40 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg Now, I'll go back to ignoring?A two-sided feud of same scale would be me posting about him every day.A two-sided feud with his tactis would be me posting the below everyday to claim he was for mass infection and HCQ.Really, *we* want to ignore the shitposters. We have work. https://t.co/PRYmO5TrIq

2022-07-04 13:57:20 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg Even the worst interpretation doesn't justify harassing women for months in hopes of making them address an otherwise minor reply that annoyed you. No, no. Someone concerned about his scientific reputation can, instead, engage immunologists. Get cited! Then boast about it.

2022-07-04 13:53:54 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg I agree/disagree in replies with many people with whom I disagree with on many things.I am not going to re-litigate what I said (he posts it every week, it's actually pretty clear) for a simple reason: this is not a "feud" but a one-sided multi-month harrassment/lie campaign.

2022-07-04 13:47:45 @lisa_iannattone @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi @kallmemeg So I'd like to go back to ignoring this. I may chat in replies to the few similarly targeted (though I'm the fave! Nonstop! Who knew, I run immunology and block immunologists from citing his COVID papers!).Seriously, *we* *want* *to* *ignore*. Feel free to hang with that crew.

2022-07-03 17:26:42 @APazyryk @jbakcoleman @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Not only do I agree that Long Covid is badly neglected, I think the weak studies based on a too-vague definition that undermine people's belief in its reality *combined* with lack of effort to properly measure and address the sizable population affected has been a double whammy.

2022-07-03 17:14:28 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @rjmendoza444 @wsbgnl (Actually, my social movement/social media interaction studying side of mine is very interested in the dynamic—but probably a fascinating eventual case study for another sociologist/journalist—not me as I have other work now, and kind of studied many examples like this already).

2022-07-03 17:09:31 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @rjmendoza444 @wsbgnl Whatever it is, it's clearly not about wanting better/stronger mitigations for the pandemic. It's just immature shitposting, hence ignoring is fine except for the damage it does to people I probably agree with in some aspects. Made a bit of the case here. https://t.co/sNA6HeqIew https://t.co/5fTudDZMKh

2022-07-03 17:04:37 @GYamey @jacksonkaganNO @notdred Yes, that's how to assess sincerity over ego issues. Pro-vaccines, and fair to even the ones you don't have an ego stake in? That's sincere. Want less restrictions, sooner? One should then be very pro-vaccine, also pro infrastructure on airborne mitigation. That would be sincere.

2022-07-03 16:57:27 @GYamey @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @wsbgnl I honestly don't think those people care about the pandemic now. Not just insane lies, but a lot of tagging of employers.It's like a bunch of middle schoolers who chew paper and spit out of pens, and then whine to the teacher someone else isn't playing. https://t.co/sNA6HeqIew https://t.co/dv7hN7RRyb

2022-07-03 16:50:50 @jacksonkaganNO @GYamey @notdred GBD fighting the wrong war with an incorrect analysis of reality while advocating unworkable policies ("shield the vulnerable" how?) and then turning into "why vaccinate at all" people—which, if they were sincere, is compatible with their stated beliefs—is devastating to watch.

2022-07-03 16:48:47 @jacksonkaganNO @GYamey @notdred An influenza playbook—which was our pre-2000 pandemic plan—was not *at all* appropriate to a SARS(2) pandemic, and the countries that did much better via different paths—Japan, South Korea, Taiwan—all had an updated SARS/MERS pandemic playbook. So yeah good point.

2022-07-03 16:47:05 @JodyShenn @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi I would be fine with "less than ideal" to "wait, actually contributing to further losing the war".As I said, nobody has to take my assessment of this. However, studying social media dynamics undermine movements is something I've done for 10+ years. And that's how I see it.

2022-07-03 16:36:28 @bijans @LoboGerda

2022-07-03 16:34:49 @rjmendoza444 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @wsbgnl I don't think there's a coherent theory of change or how the world works—or any real care about the pandemic tbh—because truly *caring* would force that kind of thinking in those circles beyond "I'm having fun shitposting with my new friends" hahalolwhatever.Ok, whatever then.

2022-07-03 16:32:21 @rjmendoza444 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @wsbgnl The last time I experienced this much tagging of employers by the very people who consider those employers to be evil beyond any reformation was Wikileaks/Julian trying to get me fired. Say what? All is hopelessly, unreformably corrupt *and* you're gonna call the teacher on me?

2022-07-03 16:30:13 @rjmendoza444 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @wsbgnl The fascinating bit is constant tagging of employers—mine, Joe's etc. So, in their telling I'm simultaneously a suck-up to authorities (lolwhat) *and* coddled by those authorities (which they consider genocidal) *and* they're gonna.. what, fire us because of screenshot lies?

2022-07-03 16:27:30 @rjmendoza444 @klausenhauser @jbakcoleman @wsbgnl Yes—and also lot of obsessives and outright liars in that corner, and I don't understand how other people—some of whom I probably agree on many things—don't understand what they've backed themselves into, via association and also losing any sense of advancing (their own) goals.

2022-07-03 16:23:20 @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Not holding you responsible for what anyone else does

2022-07-03 16:20:30 @wsbgnl @jbakcoleman @jfeldman_epi @GYamey @statsepi Not discussing persuading Joe—whatever you think he needs persuading. The quote-tweet dunk method—especially, as in this case, imo, the substantive point was misplaced—doesn't lead to "public conversations" that move things in any useful direction, but in fact does the opposite.

2022-07-03 15:49:31 RT @Beltrew: We don’t know if Alaa is alive or not as the Egyptians are refusing to give his family any letters. If @trussliz does nothing…

2022-07-03 15:30:12 @tomgara "This." "Do better."Felt like that moment in horror movie—teen girl about to go down the basement steps. Or someone not used to being challenged agreeing to a @IChotiner interview.Did anyone *think* before inviting that good a reporter to their "public intellectual" dinner?

2022-07-03 15:04:05 @tomgara It was almost too cruel, imo, but really interesting as an expose. I really hadn't gotten that impression from the Twitter pile-on. (The other topic: what should universities do/campus climate etc. didn't seem touched upon much, and that's what I think people are reading it as).

2022-07-03 14:46:41 @tomgara I actually read it as a devastating deadpan. I read it because there was so much criticism of it and I was ready to feel the same way but when I read it, I came away thinking that was so harsh and illuminating—in the other direction of the criticisms I saw.

2022-07-03 14:36:15 @startstop_reset @PuddleJumper358 @GYamey @notdred That got published in The Lancet—that's a proof that discussion *is happening*. I do disagree with the main thrust of that piece, but I agree those are points worth addressing. I think Lancet should also publish piece with the counter evidence/argument. https://t.co/UZKfZCh3mo

2022-07-01 23:02:40 @MichaelDaignau3 @StephFarrel My preference would be whatever is available soonest and most widely—and a global coordinated update system. Immunologists I talk with aren’t arguing strongly that either gets us more broadening, and who knows what’s the next one? Any update will get breadth and depth, no?

2022-07-01 20:56:50 RT @dansaltzstein: Subway musicians are one of the magical elements of NYC

2022-07-01 20:55:25 @Don_Milton @dylanhmorris @equibotanica

2022-07-01 20:47:31 @DarthPetus For a journalist or a social scientist to later write about the Twitter personalities story. Not my focus.If the science side of the topic interests you Moshe Arditi and Petter Brodin have been publishing research/testable hypotheses on superantigens, with more coming out soon.

2022-07-01 20:44:29 @yoncabulutmd @BrodinPetter Yes, been learning a lot about this lately, because of the topic or my article, and it sounds dismal. But it's such essential work—EHR, genomics, big data, observational studies etc. cannot fill the void left behind. Did you see this article? https://t.co/gOF7LVAZRM

2022-07-01 20:35:47 @DeryaTR_

2022-07-01 20:28:37 @dcurtisj Something like that

2022-07-01 19:48:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Thankyou @MariaArenaEU MEP for your support of @alaa 91 days into hungerstrike &

2022-07-01 19:39:13 @Solarpowermoon @gradamthoughts @MarkLevineNYC Not that I know of, and haven’t seen any indication.

2022-07-01 19:38:37 @BrodinPetter I’ve been talking to many clinical research scientists for an article lately and the situation is dire—from their telling. Little to no pipeline after them. Too long, too expensive and too many obstacles with few rewards compared to many alternatives people of their caliber have.

2022-07-01 19:16:17 RT @random_walker: There’s a reproducibility crisis brewing in almost every scientific field that has adopted machine learning. On July 28,…

2022-07-01 19:15:25 @DarthPetus Maybe a journalist or social scientist can chase it down and write about the interesting social phenomenon. I’m ignoring until immunologists cite or affirm the claims in these papers, or there’s any epi signal. So far, neither. (Hamdy is a thriller fiction writer, nice person).

2022-07-01 19:05:03 RT @nytimes: New York City is creating the first mobile testing units in the U.S. that will allow people who test positive for the coronavi…

2022-07-01 17:59:05 @gradamthoughts @MarkLevineNYC I can’t tell you what to do, medically. But if it were me, and I was in the category for which the second booster was recommended, I’d personally get that now, and the updated Fall vaccine later when it came out.

2022-07-01 17:34:26 @jpanzer Sigh.

2022-07-01 17:29:20 @CasualLaw Yeah.

2022-07-01 17:28:47 @jot_au @MarkLevineNYC Can you link to tweet so I can report it for misinformation? Breakthroughs may happen isn’t the same as vaccines won’t work.

2022-07-01 17:27:32 This. Of course it will spread out of the initial network. https://t.co/lsIOoLHz2C

2022-07-01 17:26:38 RT @MarkLevineNYC: Most NYers never got around to getting their booster. Then covid fell out of the news.Now a new, more transmissible va…

2022-07-01 17:25:57 @ProfCharlesHaas @linseymarr @petervikesland @AEESP2022_WashU Congratulations to all!

2022-06-28 16:58:01 @DavidLKeating @DeryaTR_ @Em_Lickspittle @TakeThatOG @alt37486 @Itisallacademic @jbakcoleman I have a recommendation for top scientists who’ve been publishing research papers about that question, to follow on that topic. See thread. https://t.co/Of2NINdvJa

2022-06-28 15:57:51 @bijans @notdred @deeptabhattacha @jwgain01 Thanks! Multiple challenges. Need workable production/update schedules. Then they need to explain affinity maturation/antigenic shifts to the population.I think a big part of the issue is "effectiveness" has been conflated with "efficacy against symptomatic infection".

2022-06-28 15:30:34 @DeryaTR_ @ArditiMd EBV / MS bağlantısını kanıtlayan makalenin yazarlarından Michael Mina ile uzun zamandır konuşuyorum, bu göreli "standard" bir virüs (mesala HIV değil) ama bu "masum" anlamına gelmiyor diye anlatmaya çalışıyor. Ama küresel immunonaive nüfus olunca tehlike ayrı, doğal olarak.

2022-06-28 15:28:49 @DeryaTR_ @ArditiMd Tam da konuda bir kaç neurovirologist ile yakın zamanda konuştum (makale hazırlıyorum) ve izlenimim gerçekten hem önemli, hem de yeterince entegre edilmemiş büyük bir alan var. İnsanlar bu virüsü diğerlerinden çok ayrı gibi görüyorlar, ama doğrusu sanki bir çoğu potansiyel sorun.

2022-06-28 15:08:02 @DeryaTR_ @Em_Lickspittle @TakeThatOG @alt37486 @Itisallacademic @jbakcoleman

2022-06-28 15:06:35 @DeryaTR_ Bunu görmüş müydünüz? Randomized trial. Grip aşısı sonrası kalp hastalarında hem "all cause" hem de kardiyovasküler ölüm oranları en az üçte bir kadar azalıyor. Umarım önümüzdeki yıllarda post-viral sendromlar konusunda daha çok dikkatli olunacak.https://t.co/aaFMludnr7

2022-06-28 14:34:26 @random_walker That bio

2022-06-28 14:33:10 RT @rachel_cheung1: Just this afternoon, Hong Kong authorities stressed how much they value press freedom in a presser. By evening, accredi…

2022-06-28 14:31:46 @FifthCritic @Itisallacademic @jbakcoleman If that were me, and if I were to spend so much time on Twitter, I'd be more focused on tagging actual immunologists—hundreds of them are on Twitter—and debating them, trying to change the fact that none of them are citing my Covid papers, rather than obsess over a sociologist.

2022-06-28 14:28:48 @FifthCritic @Itisallacademic @jbakcoleman Tagging people on a tweet isn't writing with them!Check via Google Scholar. Sort by latest date, and you'll see that while he continues to obsessively tweet about me, his COVID papers have not been substantively cited *at all* by immunologists. Not sure why I'm the obsession.

2022-06-28 13:56:35 @deeptabhattacha @notdred @jwgain01 Well, so we do have the outlines of a process? They will not ask for votes on specific strain, just yes/no to update on the umbrella Pango/WHO lineage name? https://t.co/aHopB5SJJa

2022-06-28 04:59:46 RT @BillHanage: This is a really thoughtful thread about how rushes to judgement on the back of preprints that are incomplete, early, misle…

2022-06-28 03:50:44 @ronhekier @scotthmurray

2022-06-28 03:50:25 @dandrezner I.. Uh. Well.I’ve seen examples of people inventing being victimized by others for sympathy from their own corner but.. There’s video! The anchor played the video!

2022-06-28 03:41:38 @dandrezner Wait what happened

2022-06-28 02:52:38 @mattblaze Indeed. Same.

2022-06-28 02:47:00 @mattblaze Sorry to hear, Matt.

2022-06-28 02:13:07 @notdred @bijans @deeptabhattacha @jwgain01 Some clarity would be great.

2022-06-28 02:11:36 @bijans @notdred @deeptabhattacha @jwgain01 Yeah very mixed messages.

2022-06-28 02:02:46 @deeptabhattacha @notdred @jwgain01 And crucially, what can be manufactured in time? Earlier >

2022-06-25 02:48:40 RT @hellbox: This is not a new phenomenon. @zeynep has been covering it for quite a while. But with vigilante laws and state bans that spec…

2022-06-24 23:28:00 RT @hubertguillaud: Dans le @nytimes @zeynep enfonce le clou ! La vigilance individuelle consistant à faire attention à ses données, ne suf…

2022-06-24 21:39:56 And, in fact, Roe v. Wade was based on earlier cases where the court ruled privacy implications made banning intimate practices like contraception anathema to basic rights to dignity and autonomy.So how will they find out? Digital surveillance and tech will provide many ways. https://t.co/TBZM12PMmG

2022-06-24 20:46:52 RT @matthew_d_green: I wish there was something useful to say about technology and privacy in the wake of today’s news, but @zeynep has sai…

2022-06-24 20:15:32 RT @tdietterich: From @zeynep. "I am not a technophobe. [...] I’m often an early adopter of tech, and get enthusiastic for its many potenti…

2022-06-24 19:20:26 I think the first time I mentioned digital surveillance being used to target women seeking abortions in NYT was 2014? 2012?“Serious” people literally mocked us for raising the possibility. Privacy advocates were mocked as alarmist luddites for a long time.Well, here we are. https://t.co/llbmJgivRw

2022-06-24 19:14:45 Let me reemphasize that there’s fairly little an individual can do to effectively protect themselves from being hunted down by law-enforcement or antiabortion vigilantes using the many tools of digital surveillance.Period apps are very minor in the scheme of what’s possible. https://t.co/ZtkzPkPqCY

2022-06-24 18:30:45 RT @ElissaNadworny: Worth reading this essay from @zeynep about technology surveillance in a post-roe world. TLDR: Deleting an app (or 10…

2022-06-24 17:25:04 RT @timrequarth: Worth re-reading this @zeynep essay as we enter the post-Roe surveillance era. No, not even a burner phone will help.Thi…

2022-06-24 16:51:40 RT @alexqgb: An interesting thing about e.g. Google knowing your every move—which can be super helpful and useful—is that the system *deman…

2022-06-24 15:12:01 RT @AzFlagBestFlag: Number one reason why privacy is important, you never know when information previously innocuous will become valuable t…

2022-06-24 14:40:19 @zittrain For years, us: "This level of digital surveillance is the infrastructure of authoritarianism."Shruggers: "It's just used to deliver ads. Who cares? We're not China! It's just for ads! This is fearmongering by Luddites! What could it be used for?"So we find out the hard way.

2022-06-24 14:33:44 RT @zittrain: Worth reading today.

2022-06-24 14:27:00 RT @sarahdwire: Thomas says in his concurring opinion that SCOTUS has "a duty to 'correct the error' established" in landmark cases on the…

2022-06-24 14:15:52 RT @eob: Anti-abortion vigilantes and law enforcement will be able to find women who are pregnant and make sure they give birth.In a post…

2022-06-24 12:58:54 @random_walker Yes, exactly. For ME/CFS you see years of good, interesting findings that don't get follow through. Partly lack of funding interest, but also not incentivized the same way as something new/novel (even if not necessarily as useful as following through existing stuff would be!).

2022-06-24 12:27:17 @benadida Heh

2022-06-24 12:27:03 RT @benadida: Lol, thanks Twitter for the fun juxtaposition. I don't think that's what @zeynep had in mind but it gave me a good morning ch…

2022-06-24 12:21:53 @__philipn__ I think that paper says the opposite, but first time I've seen it. (Maybe an immunologist can look? @michaelmina_lab or @deeptabhattacha could tell us—abstract seems to say Abs low/gone after a year, so memory response kicks in but after a few days?)

2022-06-24 12:18:53 @random_walker It's actually a problem for a lot of research, too! For complex but important conditions (Long Covid/CFS-ME, for example), we need a lof of incremental, confirmatory/negating type of small research over time. But academic incentives are completely the opposite of that.

2022-06-23 19:22:05 @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @AndrewFromKW @LabradorIce That’s not what the study, or the totality of the evidence, shows. I think this has been best explained in this nuanced essay from last May, before Delta and Omicron. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI https://t.co/xuBE1OeIVJ

2022-06-23 19:13:19 @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @AndrewFromKW @LabradorIce They included acute period in comparison, that's why? Study shows people who had reinfections (detected by the VA—well-known problems with using EHRs) have more health issues compared to non-reinfected. What virus would this not be true for? We have better sequlae studies imo.

2022-06-23 18:40:12 @AndrewFromKW @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @LabradorIce Severity/death curves are what immunologists said would be seems true, well-recognized antigenic shift dynamics matter also true, and both compatible with viruses can have sequelae—in Long-X form or as above especially in elderly/frail—also true (as they also consistently said).

2022-06-23 18:32:34 @AndrewFromKW @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @LabradorIce Well, viral infections suck, with long-term effects largely underappreciated, imo. How about an atonishing about one-third reduction in all-cause mortality in an RCT for people with heart disease who got the flu vaccine, compared to placebo? https://t.co/aaFMludnr7

2022-06-23 18:28:17 @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @AndrewFromKW @LabradorIce Not enough of the kind of studies we need is true, but it doesn't make this study answer questions it isn't designed to, or even trying to, answer. The abstract/conclusion should be rewritten imo, tbh. Not clear enough.Confusion like this makes many people tune it all out.

2022-06-23 18:24:01 @lisa_iannattone @DFisman @MoriartyLab @AndrewFromKW @LabradorIce All for more studies. This study, however, is comparing the health status of a person not reinfected to a person reinfected (and detected) *including* during the acute phase of reinfection.That's... a very different question than cumulative effects and burden of reinfection. https://t.co/J19cSpBTwg

2022-06-23 18:05:09 RT @henryfarrell: “Dr. Atlas estimated that the coronavirus “would cause about 10,000 deaths”—a number heclaimed “would be unnoticed” in a…

2022-06-23 17:59:28 @JudahWorldChamp (I think Delta sucked, and was horrific in its toll, not at all making light of it, but there is that aspect of it that matters for interpreting the ascertainment bias in this study).

2022-06-23 17:58:15 @JudahWorldChamp VE against breakthrough infection is very low with Omicron, close to zero in some studies. It was actually fairly high (~90% depending on study) with Delta. That also meant those sick enough to get reinfected *and* detected would be a more frail population—matters to this study.

2022-06-23 17:54:21 @JudahWorldChamp (FWIW I immediately wrote a piece at that time that I didn't think we should unmask just yet, and about 10 days later wrote a piece about Delta, and soon after another the CDC finally acknowledged Delta challenge... Delta sucked. But breakthrough/rate was a different type).

2022-06-23 17:49:26 @JudahWorldChamp Omicron breakthroughs, including symptomatic breakthroughs, are absolutely common now. Delta breakthroughs were possible, but relatively rare. They are different especially in who would get picked up by the VA—reinfected and got sick enough to interact with VA.

2022-06-23 17:47:25 @JudahWorldChamp Yeah, I wrote pieces about the reality of breakthroughs in Delta era—we got data from Singapore etc., early on. But compared to Omicron, they were certainly rare (in fact, that's the big problem with Omicron, antibody evasion), and, yes, more detected in constant testing places.

2022-06-23 14:20:45 Also reinfections in the preprint are pre-Omicron: an additional conditional probability. Pre-Omicron reinfections were rare and likely to be in more frail people, hence little surprise in findings.STILL, THESE PEOPLE MATTER! Let's not forget that part. https://t.co/lsltuCETCo

2022-06-23 14:09:19 Also an ascertainment bias obviously—inevitable working with electronic health records.It's reinfected *and* detected by the VA system, which implies worse outcome—otherwise, less likely to interact with the VA.Still, that doesn't make the below moot! https://t.co/FI2uSTVieD

2022-06-23 14:03:21 Study design of that reinfection preprint below.Day one: Alice and Bob are infected.Day, say, 45: Bob is reinfected. Alice is never reinfected. Six months later, Alice is in better health than Bob. That's *all* the study measures.Not comparing first vs further infections. https://t.co/dF2kK93hM5

2022-06-23 13:58:01 @wanderer_jasnah @roby_bhatt @DFisman Yes. A Delta breakthrough doesn't imply the same consequences or selection bias as an Omicron breakthrough. The study ended April 4, 2022 and followed everyone for six months so 100% infections and re-infections seem to be pre-Omicron.

2022-06-23 13:55:30 @hbraum @uno_zed @zgrammyz They probably should consider lowering the age, tbh

2022-06-23 13:34:22 @ArkieMiasma I actually agree with you that what you say is the core problem, and have written multiple articles making this case. This isn't the good alternative to it, though. People are confused because of the conflicting claims and information they can't evaluate, and many tune out.

2022-06-23 01:59:42 RT @ddiamond: SCOOP: Biden admin is moving to expand monkeypox testing as record outbreak grows.Five lab companies — Quest, Sonic, Labcor…

2022-06-23 01:58:56 @DFisman (I think the abstract would benefit from being rewritten, tbh).

2022-06-21 19:35:56 @OmicronData @bXLpedestrian @chrischirp I personally believe there were, and still are, sufficient evidence for a lot more action, but this kind of overclaim/virality/headlines/"oh wait"/deflation/confusion cycle has led to a lot of people completely tuning out.

2022-06-21 19:33:02 @OmicronData @bXLpedestrian @chrischirp I think the temptation to frame something like this as typical may come from the (false) belief it will get us more action. What instead happens is that the "typical" people look around, and since it's kind of clear, they discount the whole thing, and we get *no* action.

2022-06-21 19:31:14 @OmicronData @bXLpedestrian @chrischirp I believe, and previous studies found, that there is a (indeed fairly small but they count!) subset of people who experience repeat infections and deteriorate. What doesn't work is to claim that this is typical based on this data, especially given other strong evidence already.

2022-06-21 19:25:09 @jeremychrysler @chrischirp @OmicronData As someone in favor of much more action, I find too rapid blasting to headlines of claims that, as initally framed, have a high chance of not standing the test-of-time or closer examination, and contradict existing strong evidence to be a major obstacle, tbh. Confusion=inaction.

2022-06-21 18:55:34 @chrischirp @OmicronData "Getting reinfected is worse than not getting reinfected, especially for those who are already older/more frail, and this seems to be a threat especially to the immunocompromised

2022-06-21 18:52:36 @chrischirp @OmicronData In my observations of this happening again and again is that what we end up with even the useful parts getting tuned out. More precise, carefully-contextualized claims are more useful exactly because they stand the test of time, rather than the initial blasts that may not.

2022-06-21 18:50:05 @chrischirp @OmicronData The part I worry about is the preprint to virality to headline speed makes it hard to distinguish what we actually learn from the various claims that... if people allowed a few days would be better contextualized. And be more credible. And thus more useful!

2022-06-21 18:48:13 @chrischirp @OmicronData This would be important enough, especially with older higher-risk VA cohort. Plus, those who get repeatedly infected and/or detected are obviously more frail than the undetected because milder/asymptomatic case. 8.3% of third infections are immunocompromised vs. 1.1% of first. https://t.co/tS9w802htq

2022-06-21 17:41:06 @kearnsneuro @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 Well, two crossed-in-the-ether independent references to Sherlock Holmes in a single thread about causal inference, the day's work is done. https://t.co/AIvpzDxj4k

2022-06-21 17:31:25 @kearnsneuro @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 For stuff that's as thorny, and that one can be rightly skeptical a la @halvorz due to two-way causality possibilities, trying to go from vaccine and/or treatment trials back to cause may well be more productive a la "why didn't the dog bark" method, imo. https://t.co/xTexlZ3ksF

2022-06-21 17:27:11 @kearnsneuro @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 https://t.co/gKVJCOB8OQ Click on demography then age https://t.co/XomXX7bf4E

2022-06-21 17:22:07 @edyong209 Yeay!

2022-06-21 17:11:00 @halvorz @kearnsneuro @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 For example, take mystery kid hepitatis. Current median age is 3, but there are some over five. If over time, in the US, where over 5 vaccines were available, the 5+ hep cases overwhelmingly or completely show up among the unvaccinated? Causal signal for SARS-CoV-2 involvement.

2022-06-21 17:09:14 @halvorz @kearnsneuro @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 Or it could be the good old "necessary but not sufficient." Given my current awe of long-term fuckery the tiny little bad news wrapped in protein anti-entropy machinery can do, I'm for developing vaccines against the whole lot. Then, epi would give you a causal signal, too.

2022-06-21 17:03:02 @halvorz @kearnsneuro @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 But also, going back to causality, the null-hypothesis mindset not well-suited to two-way interaction, multi-pathyway causality, and, well, what I'm kinda thinking of as stochastic causality—trying to find a better word for it. Some of the interractions are probably irreducible.

2022-06-21 16:58:17 @halvorz @kearnsneuro @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 Natural experiments can sometimes help. But there's also the clinical deep-dive (that I don't think we do enough of) in a few people that can uncover a way to poke the question. See this review of POTS, for example including how they did "sham" LBNP. https://t.co/zCrT1miAwB

2022-06-21 16:51:29 @kearnsneuro @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 Yeah fascinating. It resembles something that plagues historical technology research. "How do you know social media does x"—it's an ecology shift with uneven consequences, a bit like "well so many have had EBV, how can you know it causes MS?" (Thank you VA longitudunal data!)

2022-06-21 15:13:43 RT @RiddhiKaul: “We don’t owe a fair fight to viruses”

2022-06-21 14:44:45 RT @paulmozur: China is building a new modern marvel. It's not a dam or a high speed rail, it's the most sophisticated domestic surveillanc…

2022-06-21 13:59:15 @dblandford Thank you!

2022-06-21 02:48:17 @jackclarkSF Wishing you rest and recovery!

2022-06-21 02:13:03 Anyway in case people wonder. I’m most frustrated by this when it’s about stuff that I think is actually important. It’s a losing battle at this point. Headlines can’t wait but the effect is the opposite.

2022-06-21 02:05:53 @HoffProf I try to write long form about the good ones. But yeah that’s another issue.

2022-06-21 02:04:04 I stopped doing one-at-a-time analyses of the statistical issues on Twitter but wait two days and you’ll see others will. It doesn’t undo the damage though.Most of the issues are obvious, well-understood and done again and again. Selection issues. Conditional probability. Etc. https://t.co/eZLSsyOiYY

2022-06-21 01:58:37 Here’s the problem. This undermines *your* preferred policy to have one after another come out, because people then tune out all of it—not just the obviously not-going-to-stand-test-of-time-stuff, but all of it–even the important parts.It’s win a news cycle, lose a war dynamic.

2022-06-21 01:52:30 Some of the weaknesses are so evident that people who think about causal inference and have been following pandemic papers spot them immediately.Two days later, enough threads pick it into pieces in substantive ways.But anyway, the news/virality cycle is done by then.

2022-06-21 01:48:12 Badly-framed, weak or preliminary studies Twitter virality newspaper headline superhighway does work, but maybe people turning those wheels will eventually notice it isn’t resulting in their preferred policy response?It ends up with even more people tuning it all out.

2022-06-21 01:40:25 RT @Boghuma: Nice article on the challenges of deriving accurate estimates on the true burden of #longCOVID. Heterogenous definition, confo…

2022-06-21 00:27:18 @patio11 Someone keeping a “code is law until it isn’t” file, pretty please? https://t.co/ccq4Uz0UyL

2022-06-20 23:58:38 @MarkLevineNYC

2022-06-20 19:08:23 An excellent guideline from @VirusesImmunity on effective, sensible use of social media for communicating about scientific findings.Of course, one obstacle is the paywalls, which may limit access to the papers being discussed, ironically, including this one. So here you go. https://t.co/uYmh20lhBa https://t.co/TDtnC97l9U

2022-06-20 18:21:50 RT @yannotyam: Wondering where to get your <

2022-06-20 18:21:37 @tomgara @JamesFallows @mikenizza Everything government/regulation/infrastructure succeeds in preventing gets forgotten, every failure is burnt into memory—till the amnesia tilts something from category one to category two, I guess, and then we remember why we, say, ahem, regulate finance to avoid bank runs.

2022-06-20 18:17:11 @lukewtodd @sethhahne "Healthy kids are almost always fine with acute COVID, but not always, so good to lower their risks further. Plus vaccines dampen chances of MIS-C, lower severity of illness, and help avoid unpleasant complications. Plus viruses can have long-term unknowns, so let's vaccinate."

2022-06-20 18:14:18 @lukewtodd @sethhahne Indeed. It's true that for regular, healthy children complication rates are low but.. not zero. You don't know ahead of time which kid is which. Plus, vaccines do more than completely prevent infection. Why not help avoid a croup episode? Plus, viruses can have long-term effects.

2022-06-20 17:52:01 @ProdigalHoosier

2022-06-20 16:32:06 @ProdigalHoosier

2022-06-20 16:11:31 @UnabashedMisfit Thank you.

2022-06-20 13:54:35 @flying2dub @faeriedevilish

2022-06-20 12:57:34 RT @faeriedevilish: Moved me to tears when I first read it and moved me again now in reprint. As @zeynep says, the past few years we have s…

2022-06-20 03:02:24 @shpandha You’re welcome!

2022-06-20 02:26:08 @Boghuma @EmoryInfectDis @VarunPhadke2 @Armstrws @vmarconi2 Congratulations!

2022-06-20 02:22:04 @LizMair Thank you.

2022-06-20 00:28:12 @PaulSaxMD

2022-06-20 00:27:58 @MarcConnolly

2022-06-19 22:32:59 @JayPako

2022-06-19 22:19:53 @aronro @croceiscroce

2022-06-19 18:34:14 @faeriedevilish

2022-06-19 16:35:01 This case for vaccinating children is so clear. Rare isn’t never, and “rare” is no consolation when it’s your kid.Vaccines do more than prevent breakthroughs infections in a binary fashion. It gives their immune system an advantage.We don’t owe a fair fight to viruses. https://t.co/AjsryKzPR1

2022-06-19 15:57:16 @WriterNancyJane

2022-06-19 14:14:01 @ImageSnippets Thank you!

2022-06-19 13:37:15 @TomChivers

2022-06-19 13:34:40 @j_g_allen Beautiful.

2022-06-19 12:45:38 ^ fixed typo in the URL above, apologies.

2022-06-19 12:42:53 This reminded me of an essay I wrote in 2016, and made public in 2019 when my grandmother passed away.It's about her remarkable life, and also the Republic of Turkey—the same age as her. She lived to her mid-nineties, and I'm grateful we had that time. https://t.co/aAv7VW55ba

2022-06-19 12:09:07 Noting vaccines, especially with boosters, do protect the elderly, but aging has realities isn't saying: "too bad, that's fate."My grandmother lived to her mid-nineties, and her last decade was full of life. We have ways in addition to vaccines to better protect the vulnerable.

2022-06-19 11:58:39 @ava414 Small n. But I'm sure it's better.

2022-06-19 11:58:13 So take it all as ballpark, though Hong Kong has better estimates for vaccine efficacy against severity/death for Omicron since their elderly unvaccinated were also immunonaive. The fatality rate was tragically very, very high among their unvaccinated elderly.

2022-06-19 11:51:04 Also, note that epi numbers are no longer comparable to "vaccine efficacy" numbers we saw in trials—there is a lot of seropositivity via infection, so these estimates for vaccine efficacy are going to be lower compared to what vaccine trials were measuring against immunonaive.

2022-06-19 11:48:50 Finally, note the 1.7% CFR among even the boosted 80+ year-olds. Part of this is immunosenescence—immune system is less robust with age. Common colds can cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. But that's a reason to protect the vulnerable *better*, not complacency.

2022-06-19 01:03:06 I'm not sure how this isn't clear but.. There's no issue with anyone defending DeSantis, a powerful politician, or Prof. Hotez saying he has antiscience advisors, or anyone strongly criticizing Prof. Hotez.Urging people to understand this.https://t.co/367aPlPntp

2022-06-19 00:57:11 @GuloGulo77 @astannard6 @PeterHotez I’m all for a proper analysis of what went wrong, what went right. To learn from. That’s different than singing out individuals *now* for pre-judged “public trials”. I do not advocate that rhetoric for anyone including people I thought were very wrong.

2022-06-19 00:17:06 Twitter needs different reporting and oversight to recognize persistent incitement of this kind as a different issue than an errant tweet that's insulting or may break the rules by itself.Some unhinged person getting pushed over to act offline will happen through the former.

2022-06-19 00:14:35 There really is a very clear line between saying "I think this person has said something stupid that I strongly disagree with" and the "public trials", "intentional destruction of a generation" or the from the other versions, "wanted/promoted mass deaths to get a position" etc.

2022-06-19 00:11:15 I've also seen random, fairly minor players who just happen to be Twitter high-profile or maybe on media, and maybe annoy a number of people, be incessantly singled out as responsible for policy or deaths etc. despite their having fairly little power over policy. Dangerous games.

2022-06-19 00:08:13 Large numbers of people on this platform are playing dangerous games and it's terrible that @Twittersafety lets it go on.There is persistent and insistent targeting of a few people and this is how you get to next stage—when someone unhinged decides to take it offline violently.

2022-06-19 00:05:30 I've criticized @PeterHotez in specific, strong terms when I thought something he said wasn't right, but this is absolute vile, dangerous stuff, "public trials", "intentional destruction of youth"..Unblocking long enough to report the tweet, not that I think it will do much. https://t.co/Qo0bNtCrN9

2022-06-18 23:37:27 @dylanhmorris That.. was something.

2022-06-18 23:35:37 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab If people call me wrong or stupid, whatever. Lying to a big number of people by obsessively tweeting about me and outright lying that I'm pro mass-infection, while never engaging actual immunologists about his-never cited COVID stuff? You have the answer if you want to ponder it.

2022-06-18 23:33:27 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab He must know it's a lie unless he can't read and also because two minutes on Google would show otherwise, and thus it is... a lie. And if you can't tell me being pro mass infection is an outright lie? Even in a screenshot of a single tweet taken out of context, it is clear.

2022-06-18 23:31:57 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab With the full screenshot, which is, correctly, warning that higher transmissibility is a huge threat that mass infection will happen fast, begging to urgently address this, and imagine spending every day tweeting that this is proof the person who wrote it is.. pro mass infection.

2022-06-18 23:29:28 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab Forget I wrote first NYT oped warning about Delta. Read that sentence: let's *urgently* ensure everyone encounters the virus via vaccines, not infection, and higher transmissibility cuts down how much time we have to do so. This is his "proof" I'm pro mass infection. Outright lie

2022-06-18 22:43:50 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab So I'm not going to respond to the same stuff. Ask the immunologists! They can answer your questions, that I am sure of.

2022-06-18 22:43:16 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab Please consult immunologists on *what* the theories actually are, before you start deciding whose theories they are. (And again, note why are no immunologists are tagged, attacked, screenshotted, responded? Isn't that the field?). I think I said the same thing many times now!

2022-06-18 22:40:07 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab Hah. If I felt insulted by something someone said in a reply in a thread not just about me, I wouldn't spend many months obsessively tweeting about them, even chopping off their sentences to falsely claim they were pro mass-infection, because *my* work isn't about a fragile ego.

2022-06-18 21:29:44 @Kaelberviridae @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 Speaking of radiation... My other threat/reward after I get done with what I'm working on is stuff on NTE. WTF?

2022-06-18 21:20:06 @Kaelberviridae @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 I've a friend threatening to send me papers on virus/bacterium lateral transfer of genetic material. Well promising. (Promising, actually, as reward for this thorny article I'm working on, something a bit related to this conversation).

2022-06-18 21:16:21 @Kaelberviridae @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 I don't think that it must be causing disease, I just want to know... why?

2022-06-18 21:15:41 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab I could spend all day saying "I told you so" by pointing to other people's papers and using jargon on Twitter. But I'd rather do actual work.Kindly ask immunologists, not me, and a question for you to wonder is why real immunologists aren't who he argues with on Twitter. Cheers.

2022-06-18 21:11:30 @mocoband @jbakcoleman @michaelmina_lab You seem to be genuinely misled. Sort Google Scholar by date, also look up "predatory" pay-to-publish journals. Using jargon on Twitter doesn't confer ownership, since there is an actual theory by *two other people* who published a real scientific research paper, *before.*

2022-06-18 11:45:38 @ToddKBailey Yeah, people are on all that and more. I'm amplifying known current info, and if there is any update, I will also update.

2022-06-18 11:42:39 @tony_burnetti @halvorz @Onychomys2 With tiny tiny tiny little spiky extensions pushing all the tiny tiny tiny little buttons around them to see what keeps them from disintegrating for another day. Anti-entropy.Computer science analogy: you hack at the machine code level, not Python, for maximum power and fuckery.

2022-06-18 10:56:21 @edu_frias @tomaskenn @Carlos_Frias @MiamiHerald

2022-06-18 10:42:45 Please note that Jen Brea’s eyes are blue. One poster inadvertently got incorrect color. A few more pics of her and a corrected poster below. Very much appreciate signal boosting especially for Miami area people or media (please ping any you know). Heartbroken. #FindJenBrea https://t.co/LOZmJ6rim3

2022-06-18 10:17:37 RT @jentrification: Miami peeps, please amplify

2022-06-18 04:24:37 RT @sharifkouddous: If you're in New York on Saturday head to Tompkins Square Park for a day-long event in solidarity with Alaa #SaveAlaa #…

2022-06-18 04:11:03 And here’s a poster. #FindJenBrea https://t.co/FDXiDTAq4x

2022-06-18 03:35:00 @JoyHenningsenMD @SamBrockNBC @NBCNews

2022-06-18 02:54:41 @HJ4Indie Yeah. That’s her.

2022-06-18 02:49:58 Time is of the essence in finding missing persons. People are, of course, trying to work with all local authorities. Anyone has a way to help speed this up, please do. https://t.co/fKfWK6GDLw

2022-06-18 02:47:17 If you are media especially in Florida and want to cover her story, I’d be more than happy to give you an interview about her contributions to getting Long Covid recognized and her tireless advocacy before, or point you to others to talk with. DMs open. #JenniferBrea https://t.co/iNuII2MYC3

2022-06-18 02:39:25 Very worried to learn that Jen Brea is missing—last seen in Miami Airport on Wednesday. Anyone especially in Florida/Miami, or media there, please signal boost.She’s a wonderful person and a friend who’s done so much for drawing attention to post-viral conditions. https://t.co/FLMVU3aiKk

2022-06-18 02:29:15 @tony_burnetti @halvorz @Onychomys2 “bad news wrapped in protein”You know the “more is different” saying in complex systems? It seems that in biology there’s also “very, very, very small is different”.

2022-06-18 02:11:14 @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 In VA longitudinal data, we trust. Also wait for UK PHE, I guess?

2022-06-18 02:07:33 @halvorz @tony_burnetti @Onychomys2 I increasingly wonder how many mystery x conditions are, in fact, post-viral sequelae.

2022-06-18 00:18:58 @KevinWNg @GuthmillerJenna A woman *and* an actual immunologist employing logic and science, a potential triple bingo for his harassment and incitement campaigns on Twitter (since he seems to have nothing better to do with his time).

2022-06-17 20:03:57 @RBC_PICU @epibuff @itosettiMD_MBA @ChrisCarrollMD @DrKenRemy1 @ColinRogerson5 @vPICU We are absolutely on the same page there. I am just seeing this particular misunderstanding elsewhere, since not everyone is as familiar with the threat of flu to children as a pediatrician/researcher like you would be.

2022-06-17 19:30:33 Pandemic vs. seasonal viruses will, of course, have different patterns—spread, volume, etc. In the end, both can cause severe disease in kids and we have tools to lower the burden for both.Urging especially journalists to note the co-author's careful, thoughtful comments above.

2022-06-17 19:24:29 Having been lectured on "worry about the flu" so much in early 2020 when trying to warn about COVID, I totally understand where the flu comparisons are coming from. But not to lose sight: influenza has a terrible burden, too, and COVID and influenza mitigations can overlap.

2022-06-17 19:22:41 So when they say "it's not just the flu", they don't mean COVID is worse than flu on average per kid (their findings suggest otherwise) but that our society needlessly accepts preventable flu deaths in children.Absolutely agree and same goes for COVID. https://t.co/UH0OkwZOe2

2022-06-17 15:56:30 @alhkim @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred @LCalabreseDO @Dorry_Segev (EUA means cannot legally market... Only allowed after full approval).

2022-06-17 15:55:30 @alhkim @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred @LCalabreseDO @Dorry_Segev One issue is that because it's an EUA, the company cannot do marketing. It turns out, we've essentially outsourced physican continuing education to pharmaceutical companies, which is bad and distorting enough on its own, but in this situation it means... no real campaign.

2022-06-17 14:55:31 @Alexmenter @DLeonhardt @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred @LCalabreseDO @alhkim @Dorry_Segev This is exactly what should happen!

2022-06-17 14:39:33 @balajis Speaking of, one key thing we learned during the Great Depression was how dangerous bank runs were. In addition, 2008 showed the dangers of underregulated correlated assets—especially if highly leveraged. As I said then, I agree with you on lessons of history being forgotten.

2022-06-17 04:16:24 What about long-term unknown effects? Yes, great question.Here's a recent paper painstakingly showing a viral infection leading to multiple sclerosis *decades* later. "What about long-term unknowns" worries should mare one even more pro-vaccination. https://t.co/xQ3eliAyvE

2022-06-17 04:10:15 Here's the current US childhood immunization chart. Some of these illnesses used to cause a few hundred pediatric deaths, others had much greater tolls. But if it is your child, it's your child—the denominator isn't what one thinks about. https://t.co/CrcA6HnCPh

2022-06-17 04:01:21 "Wait, you think kids globally should have a chance not to die from vaccine-preventable diseases?" Yes.We vaccinate against diseases that cause a few hundred pediatric deaths in the US. One reason is kids not dying is good. Other reason is vaccines do more than prevent deaths.

2022-06-17 03:58:56 I'm getting these "corrections", but unfortunately thousands of kids died during the Omicron wave—but not all of them were in the United States. US has about ~400 pediatric deaths for Omicron, but US isn't the world. Many of these were vaccine-preventable. https://t.co/DoWiTX3GjI

2022-06-17 00:10:05 @saeedwkhan @michaelmina_lab I fought hard against the "worry about the flu instead" lecturing in early 2020—a novel coronavirus pandemic was obviously a huge danger and the dismissal was stupid. But look at the history of pandemic influenza, and papers on seasonal influenza. Viral infections are bad news!

2022-06-17 00:07:44 @saeedwkhan @michaelmina_lab Also look at this, incredible randomized trial. https://t.co/aaFMludVgF

2022-06-17 00:07:17 @saeedwkhan @michaelmina_lab One very striking to look up is the post-1918 "Long flu"—though not always called that. It's pretty mind-blowing. Also here's a paper Mina is a co-author on. https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc

2022-06-17 00:00:16 @michaelmina_lab As we've chatted, understanding the "textbook" part would have made people more alert to both acute and downstream consequences *and* give more tools about some things to expect, since we saw them in the past, too. Alas. "Never before" goes more viral than "wait, we can do more".

2022-06-16 23:57:42 @michaelmina_lab I think a lot of people not as familiar with the "bad news wrapped in protein" part hear "not that different" or "textbook" and assume it means no big deal! A few history books would cure one of that misconception, even before digging into Nature/Science/Cell papers.

2022-06-16 19:43:20 @heloah__ @nothasanabi @willmenaker @stavvybaby Well what it the “it”?

2022-06-16 19:42:30 RT @holden: This is a good example of why I think the veracity of average beliefs of a population is less determinative on the whole than t…

2022-06-16 19:36:49 RT @jbakcoleman: This is an interesting case study on the incentives that drive messaging around scientific studies. The author frames this…

2022-06-16 19:27:52 @newordermarket @_j_thompson I would urge you to look up disease burden of flu and RSV for children.

2022-06-16 19:17:35 @danieljkelley @CaseyNewton

2022-06-16 16:30:06 @LuceBoone I'm not a medical doctor, so can't give medical advice. I can tell you what I'd do. I'd personally vaccinate at first chance—worry about booster/etc. later.

2022-06-16 16:29:03 Kids have lower risk of acute issues, not zero. Thousands died and many hospitalized over Omicron. And infections can have later consequences.I've made many immunologist friends this pandemic—every last one with kids is immunizing theirs at first chance.https://t.co/viVAipyg1o

2022-06-16 16:22:57 An example of non-textbook virus is HIV: we still don't have a vaccine for it. Fortunately, we have treatments. Unfortunately, global equity is still lacking).Here, we have a vaccine, we should use it *and* improve it. "Bad news wrapped in protein": no need for a fair fight.

2022-06-16 16:17:25 I have a friend, too, who had polio as a kid (vaccine schedule screw-up), and now post-polio.When people like @michaelmina_lab say this is a textbook virus, he's not saying it's no big deal. He's saying all viruses can be bad news—some, decades later.https://t.co/fCSEhzBJvF

2022-06-16 16:13:44 Two moments I'll never forget. I volunteered at a vaccination clinic early on—I was unvaccinated, but I couldn't think of anything better to take that risk for.The second was the day my own kid got vaccinated. Personally, for me, that was the biggest turning point of relief.

2022-06-16 16:10:31 @fjordsfjords Thousands of kids have died just during the Omicron wave, let alone hospitalizations. It's not "no risk"

2022-06-16 16:09:28 If it were my child, I'd vaccinate. The immune system strengthens and broadens response with repeat and/or different exposure—affinity maturation. Vaccines are Wuhan strain, we had an Omicron wave. I'd see vaccine as boosting immunity in the safest way. https://t.co/psYS4TBKCl

2022-06-16 16:05:08 Yes, the known complications of COVID are less frequent for children compared to adults.But it's not zero! I don't think "rare" is a good argument when there is a sensible, available and proven-safe method to improve the odds for one's own child? https://t.co/mmVsb2Z7u9

2022-06-16 16:02:25 I hear "but vaccines don't prevent symptomatic breakthroughs well". That's true, also for adults. However, vaccines do *a lot more* besides just that, and tilt the balance in favor of the child in almost everything we measure—plus the unknowns. https://t.co/jOWF5RmpPB

2022-06-16 15:59:12 Now that *finally* we have an authorization for an under five vaccine (which I think we should have had in December, before the Omicron wave, based on the data available then), I'll re-up few old threads.Vaccinating children is an important step forward, wish it was earlier. https://t.co/qlNBzTaDJy

2022-06-16 15:46:38 @ChrisCarrollMD @RBC_PICU @DrKenRemy1 @ColinRogerson5 @vPICU I think the way COVID was dismissed early on—so many people lectured me to worry about the flu instead in early 2020 when I was trying to call for action on COVID—has some people think flu is no big deal, which is false. Even better: mitigations for both overlap.

2022-06-16 15:45:21 @ChrisCarrollMD @RBC_PICU @DrKenRemy1 @ColinRogerson5 @vPICU If I may suggest: using this study to *also* highlight "just the flu" was always misleading as a way to minimize COVID—as your study shows, influenza, too, has notable burden for children, and protecting them better from *both* would be great, and would overlap in methods.

2022-06-16 15:38:43 @wanderer_jasnah hah! "persistently infected immunocompetent host"

2022-06-16 13:27:29 @danieljkelley @CaseyNewton Yes! I've an academic paper on all this, from 2014—on representativeness and validity on social media/big data studies.When I teach research methods, I always say: method are substance. Understanding methods is how you understand the question.https://t.co/G9d0xrEgta

2022-06-16 13:21:28 @CaseyNewton (That said, I agree Slack's design and functions are part of the dynamic, causally, since it's a company-wide "water cooler" without the limitations of water coolers from physics—ephemerality, visibility, participation size, etc.—are gone, and companies haven't adopted).

2022-06-15 18:58:04 RT @JamesEKHildreth: FDA VRBPAC has voted unanimously to approve EUA for Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for children age 6 months through 5 years…

2022-06-15 18:33:58 @macroliter @fabionakaa @wanderer_jasnah No it’s not meant like that. I’m used to the meaning in my own circles so a reminder to maybe avoid the term or define it better (already had some feedback to that effect hence the addition to the thread). It’s about the (mis)applications of unintended consequences frameworks.

2022-06-15 16:01:32 @macroliter @fabionakaa @wanderer_jasnah The term has another meaning for sociology/political science, and that's the meaning I'm using. (It applies to more than OAS-related topics). https://t.co/KcWH3zZfnX

2022-06-15 15:10:04 @wanderer_jasnah The greatest causal inference tools: 1-Epi curves, especially to assess likelihood small and/or lab studies will hold

2022-06-15 14:56:17 RT @BriChronister: Great presentation from @zeynep at #SER2022 discussing how during the pandemic and beyond, public health professionals a…

2022-06-15 14:55:55 RT @MelissaKariWard: Great talk from @zeynep during the #SER2022 opening plenary. Trust the public! Don’t hold back pub health interventio…

2022-06-15 13:42:59 @littmath for real https://t.co/R7SjyJJlDE

2022-06-15 13:38:57 @dglewis517 I took it to mean they express it like that like that's their lingo

2022-06-15 13:36:47 @littmath Huge, imo, but more so if also "perversity" claim—"what if better is worse" is irresistible.Currently viral headline/articles from a small lab study that, in the form its being presented, I'd take bets against to charity. But the update will be... boring, so few will notice it.

2022-06-15 13:23:42 P.S. Perversity" is a term from Hirschman—a general category of "what if better is worse" approaches.Can "better" be occasionally worse? Maybe. But the idea holds an attraction disproportionate to any actual empirical proof so needs a second, third look.https://t.co/823otXqRdn

2022-06-15 13:10:15 Well, ok. I didn’t grow up in a baseball country. https://t.co/bE3EjlZevU

2022-06-15 13:05:46 I obviously don't have opinions on most of those—people in the actual field dissect them over time, though the "abstract to newspaper headline in the same day" pipeline doesn't allow that.But that's what I always wonder immediately. Useful to assess and also what to look for.

2022-06-15 13:01:54 For a lab study with a sensational claim— especially one of perversity which seems irresistible to a certain category of smart—a solid, grounding causal inference approach is to ask: "what would the epi curve look like if this were true."Epi curve bats 100%, but studies cannot.

2022-06-15 12:55:34 RT @linseymarr: "Improving air quality has the potential to reduce not only infections with SARS-CoV-2 but also infections with other respi…

2022-06-15 12:36:31 @patio11 This reminds me of figuring out Trump's blood oxygen saturation numbers when he was hospitalized. (It was correct, later revealed). Kremlinology is underestimated in its utility for these categories of people/institutions. https://t.co/4ijWqdeBho

2022-06-15 12:26:41 @HelenBranswell @UKHSA Not even after a pandemic, so not sure what else could happen to get us to adopt the obviously smart, wise and moral "ounce of prevention" position.

2022-06-15 12:23:12 @PaulSaxMD I don't think it's really possible to be well-informed at this point, to be honest, unless one is *really* digging into everything. Most everyone is so confused partly because the information flow *from including gatekeeper sources* is so confusing.

2022-06-15 12:21:10 @PaulSaxMD Add:4-Small sample/meh studies ->

2022-06-15 12:18:22 @PaulSaxMD Other questions remain open—and this came at tragic cost—but the epi data from many countries couldn't be clearer on this. Confusion remains, imo: 1-Gets incorrectly folded into "intrinsic virulence"

2022-06-15 03:03:16 RT @alexrkonrad: when my editor asks if my draft is ready at deadline

2022-06-15 02:30:55 @bijans Same for many in Turkey. As usual, those are the people who will never be made whole—or anybody will care about.

2022-06-15 02:01:41 RT @mdc: "If we got our act together, we could do for indoor air sanitation something similar to what we did to water after discovering wat…

2022-06-15 00:59:42 RT @manalipatelmd: This

2022-06-14 22:25:53 @JamesGleick Heh

2022-06-14 21:36:29 @JamesGleick Impressive, actually. (And hey it changed very fast!)

2022-06-14 21:14:24 @JamesGleick Cut… and paste!

2022-06-14 20:44:48 @BesteFYuksel @craignewmark @WiT_USF @usfcs @usfca Congratulations!

2022-06-14 19:02:48 @ArditiMd @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 @BrodinPetter

2022-06-14 19:02:39 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 For the rest of it, as I keep saying, I have nothing to do with whatever beef he has with the field of immunology and I don’t understand why *I* am constantly invoked. Random woman academic is ranted about every week because none of them will cite him? It’s absurd. Not my issue.

2022-06-14 19:00:35 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 I will leave it here because not a single other corner has interpreted that piece as anything but an argument *against* mass infection and also very pro vaccination. Why would I say the exact opposite 2+ years if that were my idea? I opposed every authority if necessary.

2022-06-14 18:38:24 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 (There are GBD folks for example who do. My record couldn't be further apart from them. Literally couldn't be further apart. Two clear years).On the other stuff? Ask the immunologists why they aren't citing him at all. Not my issue whatsoever, and have said nothing of the sort.

2022-06-14 18:37:01 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 Nobody read that article and said "argument for mass infection"—quite the opposite. I've used it to convince on need for mitigations and childhood+ vaccination. It explains a specific danger.I have two+ years of clear, public track record. Absolute lie to suggest otherwise.

2022-06-14 18:12:32 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 That article does nothing of the sort (and nobody else interprets it that way). I can't keep saying please read it.On the SAg motif, I recommend following @BrodinPetter and @ArditiMd for original research on this hypothesis. Nothing to do with me—check with actual immunologists.

2022-06-14 17:59:18 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 As for the rest, as I said, I have *nothing* to do with why only predatory, pay-to-publish journals will publish his COVID work, and why immunologists don't cite it. The way to resolve such questions is to argue with other scientists, not obsess over irrelevant people. Cheers.

2022-06-14 17:57:43 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 Similarly, look for my tweets on virus evolution/mildness—always correcting the "viruses evolve to be milder" stuff. Look at my tweets from yesterday or last year. Read every one of my articles.That's why this weird thinking is only from that minor corner. It's an obsessive lie.

2022-06-14 17:55:18 @mocoband @DropletDiaries @Lujan588 Exactly, you are being lied to. That is NOT herd immunity via mass infection theory, and I have not once, advocated, for that—quite the opposite. Please read the actual article. It's an effective, strong warning against the dangers of mass infection. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI

2022-06-14 15:50:36 @DropletDiaries @mocoband @Lujan588 Anyway, obsessively tweeting about irrelevant people is a sign, for those who know how science works. You can find accurate articles about all this, including immunity/virulence distinctions, from my feed just yesterday! I'll personally get back to real work! Have a nice day.

2022-06-14 15:48:08 @DropletDiaries @mocoband @Lujan588 As for the rest of it, I have *nothing* to do with the fact that his COVID articles could only be published in predatory, pay-to-play journals and aren't cited at all by immunologists. Whatever his beef with them, an actual scientists would take it up with other scientists.

2022-06-14 15:46:36 @DropletDiaries @mocoband @Lujan588 What theory of *mine* becoming "less severe"? That's what I mean, you've been lied to. I've hosted articles explaining immunity versus virulence—articles immunologists find accurate—and tweeted zillion times about it. Promoted actual immunologists explaining this, some yesterday.

2022-06-14 05:07:37 RT @whet: this was really good, there’s a lot that needed saying in here

2022-06-14 01:13:25 @whet

2022-06-14 00:20:38 RT @WriterNancyJane: “at this moment, navigating the pandemic is kind of like a build-your-own-adventure game.” She nails both how I feel a…

2022-06-14 00:00:15 @Boghuma @sdbaral @Canada

2022-06-13 23:58:20 RT @LawrenceGostin: CDC has been weak in health communication. The science is simply unclear &

2022-06-13 23:55:42 @Boghuma @sdbaral @Canada Yeah. I’ve a lot of experience on that front. I’ve a few stories that… well, I couldn’t tell them publicly.

2022-06-13 23:48:37 @Boghuma @sdbaral @Canada It’s terrible. Always the case. Even when one can get a visa, it is such an incredible hassle and expense to do so.

2022-06-13 23:03:30 I spoke with the New York Times coronavirus newsletter. I think the intense polarization is partly driven by how muddled the response has been. What’s happening for Fall? Where’s the proper attention to Long Covid? Some are angry, some tune out. https://t.co/RHjfAazQ9x https://t.co/yhMUrsr2Bt

2022-06-13 22:37:42 RT @adamgurri: Good point from @zeynep https://t.co/20OllVKXDX https://t.co/4VNSPRi5xR

2022-06-13 22:18:02 Also, currently, some people fairly irrelevant to policy decisions are being targeted, personally, in very dangerous ways by people who disagree with them—mildly, tbh, compared to the average American.If nothing else, can we try to stop that? Please, DM your friends who join.

2022-06-13 22:09:41 When I wrote that oped for masks in March 2020—when we had no tools—I thought I was ending my public career. Instead, some senior people in public health/medicine said "thank you for writing this".Well, ok, but why didn't you? Or speak out? Much better standing.Same dynamic.

2022-06-13 21:37:34 Yes, this is a giant subtweet of a lot of senior men (or tenured in the academy) whose keyboard courage seemingly revs up when it's easy to do so against a mostly irrelevant targets.From just observing things and from research, we know that *their* interventions matter more.

2022-06-13 21:34:38 Again, not surprising, but similar patterns of silence from people who are in a position to speak up and have an effect, and do so whenever the fancy strikes them if it's directed at one of their in-crowd, against pretty outrageous and dangerous forms of targeting and pileons.

2022-06-13 21:29:13 No, not surprised, but so many people with secure jobs and loud Twitter acounts spend so much time dunking on easiest targets (to little real effect except retweets) but stay silent when it would matter if it's slightly inconvenient.I know, I know. Still, not fun to observe.

2022-06-13 18:25:18 @saratu @Nanjala1

2022-06-13 16:05:00 @ZoeMcLaren @andrewpekosz Yeah, the piece is crystal clear.

2022-06-13 15:57:36 It's not that SARS-CoV-2 is necessarily evolving to become like the other common coronaviruses in some intrinsic virulence sense, but that our response to other coronaviruses is shaped by lifelong exposure.Omicron in March 2020 would be *much worse* than Omicron in March 2022.

2022-06-13 15:53:01 Adding great earlier piece by @andrewpekosz, on a misinterpretation that I tweet about a lot.Viruses do not necessarily evolve to become "milder"—selection pressure is on transmission—but we acquire immunity which changes how we experience infections.https://t.co/B4ylBhH8Qa

2022-06-13 14:56:10 Nonsense easily proliferates on social media, but public health guidance has not been detailed, timely and, frankly, credible enough.Given how it works, and given how busy working scientists are, it's hard to explain and counter nonsense on Twitter! But longform works well!

2022-06-13 14:41:38 Serious public service, and I know real work to make it this accessible.I know that immunologists like @deeptabhattacha have been super busy with the science. They can't spend their days on Twitter battles. That said, I urge scientists to write more long-form for the public.

2022-06-12 15:11:49 RT @jayrosen_nyu: "There is no plan. The plan is to leave a smoldering crater where our institutions once were."Those are the best senten…

2022-06-12 15:02:54 @PeterHotez So many needless deaths, globally. Very grateful for everyone working to expand vaccine equity and fighting vaccine misinformation here and abroad. Nobody deserves any less.

2022-06-12 14:00:06 @gefgest There are so many stories like this. It’s really unfortunate. I’m glad your mom got it, finally.

2022-06-12 13:45:04 @0xKruzr @RadCentrism @murrrayyyy @WryWryWry3 @notdred Feel free to untag me! (If you sort Google scholar by date, you already see there are no citations to the COVID stuff—in pay-to-play journals anyway. None. No idea why he’s so obsessed with me rather than the *actual* field of immunology which has thus responded so far.) Thanks

2022-06-11 23:18:18 @benryanwriter Oh wow. There’s about 10,000+ unused does in New York right now. I hope you were able to get it, and best of luck with the treatment.

2022-06-11 21:54:24 @LarsSanderGreen @dgurdasani1 @ahandvanish Someone posted this upthread for influenza. Amazing results. I think there is a significant underestimation of excess mortality a year down the line from having had viral infections, *especially* severe ones like in the mortality study in this thread. https://t.co/aaFMludnr7

2022-06-11 21:50:28 @LarsSanderGreen @dgurdasani1 @ahandvanish I find it quite plausible that severe COVID in such an unvaccinated cohort caused real excess mortality down the line *and* that this may be masked by less excess mortality from other respiratory illnesses—influenza also causes real jump in acute *and* later excess mortality.

2022-06-11 21:46:59 @APazyryk @wanderer_jasnah @BrodinPetter @ArditiMd (I don't have an opinion on that, besides being bemused by the deployment of jargon on the bird app, and defer to the immunologists working on the topic, like the two above, and the broader scientific community, since the hypothesis is testable).Other two Q were answered, above.

2022-06-11 21:43:07 @APazyryk @wanderer_jasnah There are scientists on Twitter, @BrodinPetter and @ArditiMd, who've done real work on the superantigen hypothesis, publishing papers and developing theories, you could follow to get informed on this topic. Please feel free to ask them if any other virus may have the Sag motif.

2022-06-11 18:57:38 @ahandvanish I do think the study is informative for unvaccinated mortality as long as the conditional probability aspect is understood, but also most of the mortality came fairly quickly so less clear if it should be noted as acute. I don’t think mortality studies capture Long Covid well.

2022-06-11 18:56:02 @ahandvanish This one isn’t even about Long Covid per se, as mortality doesn’t capture that well. But yeah obviously, as I noted right up top, since people might conflate the two. https://t.co/hWxfGgCP3H

2022-06-11 17:38:19 RT @accessnow: @alaa @sana2 If you are in the UK, please write to your MP to call on @FCDOGovUK and @trussliz to intervene now on Alaa’s be…

2022-06-11 17:26:58 @ValoisDuBins Just putting the rest of our discussion here. https://t.co/hDSEeR8Zke

2022-06-11 15:10:55 @notdred Yeah. Also, the study is fine in its context.I don't think many who follow them realize this, but I think the science by ctrl-f and screenshot a sentence from the abstract without context crowd have actually substantively contributed to many completely tuning out.

2022-06-11 14:48:31 @smithsj Do those countries seem polarized and confused to you? I have a friend in Taiwan who tells me that the entire population seems to be, still, both masking and also what I'd consider excessive surface sanitizing—but I don't see polarized tuning out there.

2022-06-11 14:45:18 @smithsj Not only do I agree with the importance of Long Covid, see below, I'll note that this study is another bucket of post-infection sequelae than LC.I think there's the LC/CFS-ME bucket and then there's the morbidity/mortality like the above, two subgroups.https://t.co/k4JW53EtPR

2022-06-11 14:41:33 @smithsj Actually, that's a fair point. Long Covid needs a lot more attention, and much more than a few tweets—from me and from everyone else. Don't take my tweeting about conditional probability as anything negating that.

2022-06-11 14:36:40 @ValoisDuBins Yeah, though this is also an unvaccinated cohort. I have no doubt that in an immunonaive adult population, there will be people without expected traditional comorbidities who'll have long term complications. The thread is sandwiched in statements noting that.

2022-06-11 14:33:59 (In fairness to me haha, I spend a lot of time also writing *this effect/dynamic is big, why are we ignoring it* pieces/threads, too).Confusion, in my view, leads to paralysis, polarization and, for many, inaction. I do wish someone did a weekly sensible round up. I'd pay!

2022-06-11 14:30:57 Why? I think many people look at confusing claims and some overreact, but others decide to ignore it all. If you have implausible numbers floating around, and people look and realize the numbers aren't making sense, they end up completely tuning out. https://t.co/TwkXx5AB9L

2022-06-10 21:15:02 RT @davidakaye: #Egypt's isolation, detention &

2022-06-10 17:59:43 @drkiki By all means, he has a right to being proud of his own vaccine, and I would absolutely support funding for trials for it. Reporters can interview him about it, where he'd be free to advocate for it. But that divergence in evidentiary standards and benchmarks really is not subtle.

2022-06-10 17:52:44 @drkiki There is an easily-verifiable multi-year pattern of what he states as the necessary evidentiary standard for the vaccine he co-created versus what he says about other vaccines he comments on. I wish the best for his vaccine, but it's not subtle and observable with minimal effort.

2022-06-10 16:25:45 @offhandmanor1 @halvorz That, but from a causal inference perspective, the thing that seems to have *really* tripped them up is the incubation period (which, also they guessed! But got it wrong!). It's really interesting to read through the thought process though. A lot of smart stuff.

2022-06-10 16:18:39 @iTarjei @Martyupnorth_2 I mean, I should go make a list. There's more. Big chunks of my career is going against non-trivial consensus, but the reason, in my view, that it ends up the way it does for me is that I don't decide this arbitrarily. It's built on my analyses, but real work of others as well.

2022-06-10 16:13:13 @iTarjei @Martyupnorth_2 Argued for airborne transmission from summer 2020 on, when it was being labeled "misinformation" etc., argued why Trump's antics about election results were big threat before January 6 happened, oh yeah March 2016 started begging people to understand Trump was a viable candidate+

2022-06-10 16:11:22 @iTarjei @Martyupnorth_2 Let's see. Argued social media had downsides for democracy starting in 2012 at height of "big data will save democracy" craze (literally got blacklisted for it), wrote pro-mask article in NYT in March 2020 (thought would end my career), article credited for changing CDC stance..+

2022-06-10 14:32:57 @halvorz Fix typo: Primary accounts from the day are fascinating. People were not stupid, and many got close...My favorite is "why aren't inmates in the filthy, crowded prison NOT getting sick while city is dying?" (Answer they did not know: prison wall too high for mosquitos).

2022-06-10 14:32:01 @asymmetricinfo Yikes, fixing for typo.

2022-06-10 14:26:08 @halvorz Yeah, the wall kept away the mosquitos. Imagine the scenario: the filthy crowded prison has outbreaks of *everything else* given the conditions but spared yellow fever even while the city crumbles. The primary documents from the era are amazing reads.

2022-06-10 14:20:24 @Martyupnorth_2 One person against the whole field can ask a question, but if there is any empirical support, it will soon be more people collectively joining the challenge. In the 21st century especially, the Hollywood version of the lone crusaders describes cranks, not scientific challengers.

2022-06-10 14:18:55 @Martyupnorth_2 Challenge consensus of the day=absolutely. I just would like to emphasize it doesn't happen like Goodwill Hunting, the Hollywood version. It's not one man against everyone. Scientific challengers, especially in this day and age, work together and build on other people's work.

2022-06-10 14:17:30 @Martyupnorth_2 I'm all for questioning things, no doubt. It's that the example with Walter Reed is yellow fever, not malaria, and for both diseases it really wasn't just two people—just like the large number of scientists that successfully challenged incorrect theories of airborne transmission.

2022-06-10 14:15:29 @jonfavs I think, throughout the pandemic, we didn't focus enough on the consequences of higher transmissibility, in addition to individual odds. Any respiratory illness that infected about half the country (!) in just a few months would be a major issue, even without anything else added.

2022-06-10 14:13:11 @jonfavs On the other hand, is it less intrinsically virulent than Delta? Probably. But, given how infectious it was, and more able to evade antibodies to spread, it got to a very, very large number of people. Small percent of a very, very big number=still a big number.

2022-06-10 14:11:16 @jonfavs How can we tell the latter? Hong Kong, where there was no prior outbreak, hence no infection immunity. It hit the unvaccinated elderly very, very hard. I think if we had gotten hit with Omicron in 2020, it would be catastrophic. Vaccines (and prior infection) immunity blunted it.

2022-06-10 14:09:57 @jonfavs "Mild" includes multiple processes, hence confusion, imo. Milder disease course on average due to immunity (from vax or infection) is different than "intrinsic virulence, all else equal, compared to other variants". For the latter, I don't think it's "milder" than OG 2020 strain.

2022-06-10 13:55:18 @Martyupnorth_2 Well whoever said that mixed up the diseases and also the process. That's not how it happened for either malaria or yellow fever (which is the one maybe you're thinking of?). In both cases there were many people who got close, but took time to prove with limited tools of the day.

2022-06-10 13:53:11 @halvorz This... doesn't even have the right disease. And the Yellow Fever discovery is a *fascinating* story... Lots of people kind of figured it out, but were stymied but very thorny issues of causal inference because of things like incubation period messing up their experiments.

2022-06-10 12:18:33 RT @alisonannyoung: Coverage by @APNews notes "sharp reversal of the U.N. health agency’s initial assessment of the pandemic’s origins. WHO…

2022-06-09 18:38:13 @marymcnamara @DLeonhardt @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred @LCalabreseDO @alhkim @Dorry_Segev

2022-06-09 17:59:11 @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred @LCalabreseDO @alhkim @Dorry_Segev My friends who clearly qualify and have otherwise top-notch doctors are telling me that their doctors have not heard of Evusheld, and thus they cannot get a prescription. It's absurd, but reality... Looking to find an informed doctor now, but how?

2022-06-09 17:46:11 Those of you in a position to understand the issue (and there are so many of you), please, please do tell me why and how I'm wrong, if you think so. *Say something.* Some things are too important.I'm again noting two years of public record on this. I didn't wake up and tweet.

2022-06-09 17:38:33 Putting Professor Hotez's response here for the record.Note again to those in global public health there is two years of public record on this issue, and to media that this is a conflict-of-interest.I fully support trials for Professor Hotez's vaccine. https://t.co/DLlfLbBXEp

2022-06-09 17:32:02 @MarinaC_Dyb @notdred They have. The doctors who are otherwise top-notch have never heard of it. Looking for doctors who know about it.

2022-06-09 16:46:28 @PatWitt2432 @rrelyea Thank you! The problem my friend has is... the doctors have no idea, and there's no guide to how to find a doctor who has. (The doctors are otherwise great! But they literally have never heard of Evusheld, won't perscribe). So need to find a doctor, now. What a situation.

2022-06-09 16:43:51 @bethlinas I am so deeply disappointed about the silence from so many who do know exactly what the issue is, are in a position to speak up, but instead spend their days attacking various easy targets in ways that don't really matter, while ignoring a genuine dynamic in vaccine hesistancy.

2022-06-09 16:34:51 RT @bethlinas: I have been frustrated by this and wasn't sure if I had rational feelings about it, glad I am not alone!

2022-06-09 16:25:42 @MattChambers13 @jbakcoleman It is fine to interview him as someone with a competing vaccine, to comment on his own vaccine as its co-creator. That’s fine.

2022-06-09 16:19:14 It's June 9th, 2022. My immunocompromised friends in NYC tell me their (otherwise top-notch) doctors *have not heard of* Evusheld, and despite about 10K doses sitting unused in the state, my friends have no idea how to get it despite clearly qualifying. https://t.co/TTXaCDpXaZ

2022-06-09 15:42:21 *fund, lol can't spell (actually need new battery for keyboard).But seriously, all the people who have long known exactly what the issue is, what will it take? Most of you aren't shy in your opinions, but your silence on this is part of the public record.https://t.co/d3D6JqXSjl

2022-06-09 15:32:53 FWIW, I have tried for months privately to get people in the global public health community to try to encourage a clearer position. I will say this again, publicly.Undermining competing vaccines is not without cost, and everyone sitting on their hands needs to think about that.

2022-06-09 15:27:27 *supportive https://t.co/bs5yDK7GLd

2022-06-09 15:26:40 He says he's been nominated for a Nobel because of it, and he tweets about that constantly. Of course that's a strong conflict-of-interest.There are other experts on vaccines, too. It's been two years of this pattern.I *do* wish the best to his vaccine! https://t.co/PVHhozgQ4O

2022-06-09 15:23:18 He clearly thinks his vaccine should be in the mix. Fine! Please let's fund a trial.But that really is a giant conflict-of-interest for commenting on why the updated competing vaccine *with excellent results* may not be good—as he does in this interview.https://t.co/ewJiHIxWFH https://t.co/me3YQ2mrqd

2022-06-09 15:20:16 For two years, a key go-to person in most media for *other* vaccines has been someone who has a competing vaccine (The more the merrier! Honestly wish he had gotten funding for it!), and the interviews really make the issue clear. It is literally teach-in-class kind clear.

2022-06-09 15:18:06 I'm supportive of the vaccine co-created by Professor Hotez, and would find proper trials for it in a minute.We already bungled the key need for the third shot through terrible messaging and undermining. Let's please not do that with the updated vaccines. Results are excellent.

2022-06-09 15:16:19 Why does media continue to interview Professor Hotez on *other* vaccines, which he often says aren't good enough, without noting he is the co-creator of a competing vaccine that he says he belives would be better.I'm support funding trials of his vaccine! But this COI is real. https://t.co/wXVZn04WlF

2022-06-08 14:22:27 @TRyanGregory Yeah. I get why the flu comparisons have started, but my experience is that it hasn't been helpful for the most part. We could have taken the impending pandemic seriously, regardless of seasonal flu, and we can take Covid sequelae seriously now, regardless of current/past flu.

2022-06-08 14:15:17 @HL3133 @jbloom_lab And my current concern is simple: whatever people think about any other the evidentiary aspects of this, dragging in Chinese scientists still there as face of any side of the argument is going to bring the government hammer *on those very people*. We've seen this.

2022-06-08 02:52:33 @mediocrefaith @michaelmina_lab Yeah. It’s called viruses suck. Vaccines made us forget some of this. A novel pandemic virus is a reminder but many viruses do all sorts of terrible, even still mysterious, things.

2022-06-07 23:10:25 @amyhoy I’m sorry to hear that.

2022-06-07 23:02:12 Pandemics have long been horrible, with significant suffering during and long-term impacts. Plus, many other viruses cause huge issues, long-term. (See recent paper by @michaelmina_lab et al. on E-B virus leading to multiple sclerosis years later).

2022-06-07 22:53:25 I keep seeing "but does influenza ever do X" <

2022-06-07 22:43:48 The pandemic started with "worry about the scary, scary flu, instead" and now I see people saying "this is serious, not benign like the flu".Influenza is a serious disease! Plus, pandemic influenza has historically wreaked havoc—big death toll, long-term disease, what-have-you.

2022-06-06 23:22:12 @PaulSaxMD Yeah. Infinite scream.

2022-06-06 19:02:24 RT @Tuliodna: The madness that Global Health is run in Geneva,Berlin, Seattle, DC. Very expensive cities, that requires a visa for attendee…

2022-06-06 14:26:14 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Once again income is an important determinement of who is able to protect him herself.

2022-06-06 13:36:39 @pbleic @michaelmina_lab Anyway, over time, I came to rely on people who kept linking what we know from other viruses and past examples to what we were observing now—and now, in retrospect, I do see that group had a pretty good track record. (I did not know at the time, obviously, how it would turn out).

2022-06-06 13:31:45 @pbleic My other exposure to this @michaelmina_lab keep repeating "did everyone forget what's in the textbooks" on issues related to coronaviruses—seasonality, reinfections, waning, etc. In fairness, though, evolution at this scale had never been observed temporally. Scale does matter.

2022-06-06 13:24:44 RT @pbleic: Exactly right. And the Bloom paper in the second tweet is a gem.

2022-06-06 03:29:03 RT @AlexanderMcCoy4: This is the same guy who invested a bunch of his nation’s reserves in Bitcoin.

2022-06-06 03:28:14 @natematias

2022-06-06 02:58:42 RT @JamesGleick: About bearing witness

2022-06-06 02:54:42 RT @pkcapitol: This entire thread is amazing. For all the different versions of this historic pic. I've never seen this photo from this van…

2022-06-05 14:27:43 @TimWilkins12 @ppolsinelli @hannahnicklin Thank you!

2022-06-05 14:27:10 If they did, it would be to their credit! Monkeypox was already in poorer countries (hence: little research money!) and identified as a global threat. Should have been even more money allocated to combat it!https://t.co/X4xZ9FrCwp

2022-06-05 14:12:20 @kmthurman @ppolsinelli @hannahnicklin Well, you do it right, you have brilliant, lively and full characters but you don't make them unrealistic so that they can carry the story because you don't have much else to carry it.

2022-06-05 14:11:23 Instead of me retweeting the whole thread, just go read it. https://t.co/qTAUduI0xw

2022-06-05 14:08:38 Put her in charge of communications! The opposite of stigmatizing isn't ignoring empirical facts of the current outbreak or to split definitional hairs on what's an STI, but to treat what we know and don't know as a matter of fact—and talk about action. https://t.co/JjGfe4hSNl

2022-06-05 14:03:52 Excellent thread.Current outbreak seems to have spread primarily through sexual contact—need to warn the network this is spreading in ("men who have sex with men", in public health lingo) while also making it clear it can spread beyond those—and not just through sexual contact. https://t.co/VfJMnzerxn

2022-06-05 13:59:28 @hannahnicklin @ppolsinelli @gutefabrik Oh wow! I’d love to hear more.

2022-06-05 13:47:47 @ppolsinelli @hannahnicklin Thank you! It's one of those pieces I wrote people keep emailing me about!

2022-06-05 03:12:59 RT @majian53: #33 https://t.co/VZ9FXowQ9V

2022-06-05 01:03:56 @DavidSteadson @MackayIM It’s a very specific subgroup and results need to be interpreted in light of conditional probability imo. The supplements are quite informative. We have a much younger, different long covid issue that’s not represented here (population) and sequelae in elderly ill men isn’t same.

2022-06-05 00:55:38 @itosettiMD_MBA @MackayIM There are, indeed, many younger people suffering from long covid but that’s not the impression you’d get from this study. Which is exactly my point. People aren’t reading the studies or thinking through what they imply.

2022-06-05 00:31:21 @enenbee @RedLittleladyin @MackayIM Yes I read it, including the supplements. The difference between the elderly hospitalized and everyone else is very striking and I don’t understand how that’s not the big news. But definitely agree we need more and better studies, too.

2022-06-05 00:00:56 @MackayIM Nobody is reading the study. Its almost solely older, already much sicker men who got hospitalized that had significant sequelae even post vaccination.

2022-06-04 16:43:02 RT @antd: A t-shirt is unlawful assembly? That’s a new one.

2022-06-04 16:03:56 @jeffjarvis @leighbeadon @tomgara You’re trying to disagree with me by providing anecdotes that are very strong, relevant and current examples of my point? Okay, I guess.

2022-06-04 15:50:29 @jeffjarvis @leighbeadon @tomgara Me: Distorted caricatures do well on social media. You: Let's get outraged at this article, distorted in viral tweets as minimizing gun deaths when it is *actually* about their horror becoming routinized.Meanwhile, Supreme Court: poised to overturn what gun control remains.

2022-06-04 15:34:38 RT @geoffreyyork: Today is the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, in which Chinese troops killed hundreds (possibly thousan…

2022-06-04 14:44:06 RT @niubi: “1989: the people will not forget”. The Party has worked hard and effectively to prove this sign wrong https://t.co/WPGSe8yg93

2022-06-04 14:11:04 @jeffjarvis @leighbeadon @tomgara You’re actually making my point, you realize, right?

2022-06-03 23:17:25 @BuzzJohnG @BrownSociology @BrownUniversity @ASAnews Wow! Thanks again!

2022-06-03 21:10:11 Heh, I actually follow in lists, and do most of my reading there, and not always public ones. (It's partially because this is something I research).But tracking quote-tweets/screenshots back to source is my go-to method to evaluate quality of other info.https://t.co/DgJNlOqaQI

2022-06-03 20:59:29 RT @abuaardvark: Almost 30 human rights advocacy groups signed this call to #freealaa and I couldn’t agree more https://t.co/2wEJMeLiu2

2022-06-03 20:58:18 I get a lot out of social media, but I've been studying it for a long time, been through multiple big events. It is super easy for an entire class of people to gaslight themselves, in my view.Everyone is vulnerable to this, and being on guard is good. That's my own lesson.

2022-06-03 20:55:50 Heuristic for finding valuable Twitter accounts. Follow their screenshots and quote tweets to source, see if they're represented accurately—even if criticized harshly.Make lists of ones that do well, mute/unfollow those who distort. Many big accounts drop, but quality improves.

2022-06-03 19:25:57 @jeffjarvis @tomgara You're making this too easy.That social media is swamped by caricatures served to coalesce in-group/out-group anger, and that the design and engagement algorithms amplify such content is mundane and easily observable (just switch chronological vs algo TL and look).

2022-06-03 19:20:49 @jeffjarvis @tomgara Well, here you go. You today. And much of Twitter, using a screenshot to portray this as minimizing gun horrors, when it is, in fact, piece on how horrific they are, and yet routine *only* in America. Much social media is "disagreeing" with caricatures.https://t.co/nbBzcGJ9MK

2022-06-03 18:49:09 @jeffjarvis @tomgara There is literally a parody account of you with tens of thousands of followers. I guess if you think what happens on social media is more akin to "exposure to a range of views" in the deliberative democracy sense, I'd say we have very different views of deliberative democracy.

2022-06-03 18:40:44 @tomgara You can look at what trends, what gets shared and notice the obvious.That said, I, too, would love a broader empirical documentation, if only these platforms would allow access to independent researchers. (Can be done in privacy-preserving ways). Alas, they deny us that.

2022-06-03 18:32:35 @tomgara Except that makes it sound like deliberate democracy.Should replace exposed to "range of views" with "caricatures and worst versions of views of others" and add "wildly amplified by design choices and algorithms of engagement-dependent business models".I once described it as: https://t.co/JW33EprSTW

2022-06-03 18:11:44 RT @holmeschan_: As of 23:20, Hong Kong police have cleared Victoria Park -- the site where the annual Tiananmen candlelight vigil is tradi…

2022-06-03 15:50:42 @cwarzel In contrast, I think this narrow framing is exactly how so much of the media missed *why* and how Trump was a viable candidate until he got elected. It's missing how the political moment interacts with all this and the ongoing realignments—and then leads to losing elections, too.

2022-06-03 15:27:55 @BuzzJohnG @BrownSociology @BrownUniversity @ASAnews Aaaw! Thank you!

2022-06-03 11:43:46 @BrownSociology @BrownUniversity @ASAnews

2022-06-03 11:39:34 RT @joshtpm: Report: China-linked Twitter harassment targets female Asian journalists outside China https://t.co/EgXMqWyUGx

2022-06-02 21:35:20 Fiction: AI-generated praise to swamp trolls.I once suggested this—as a joke!—for "anti-extremism" programs tweeting at potential recruits from *government* handles.Though, I see folks tweet all day about how great they are. Maybe AI for narcissists with frail egos is ok. https://t.co/HtGhRS2nrX

2022-06-02 20:11:09 RT @nytimes: Breaking News: The gunman who killed four people at a Tulsa medical building underwent back surgery last month and the doctor…

2022-06-02 17:04:13 RT @skinclasshero: like this https://t.co/vdZaTWxeTw

2022-06-02 14:44:11 @huwigs It's why we should, indeed, very carefully track potential complications. In this particular case, we have millions of doses given to kids over five, among other data. This has not been held back on safety concerns or balance.

2022-06-02 13:44:44 @jaryoung01 Yeah! If public health is the concern, work to convince an actual immunologist or two, instead of lashing out against a random assortment of people on the birdsite. I can't believe how many fall for the con, though—imo worsened by institutional failures that leave people confused

2022-06-02 13:39:20 "Most kids are fine!", people say. Yes. But a few aren't. During this time, we had thousands of kids under five face severe disease, hospitalization. Some died. Vaccines also reduce MIS-C. "Rare" is no consolation when it's your kid. We correctly vaccinate for many rare risks.

2022-06-02 13:31:19 FDA didn't approve <

2022-06-02 12:57:46 @jaryoung01 Want to use money to try to shut up women advocating for public health. Obsess over scapegoats. No idea why this Twitter personality doesn’t get mad at the actual field instead. Convince immunologists to cite your COVID stuff. They’re not citing at all. I’m irrelevant.

2022-06-02 12:50:23 @jaryoung01 On serious note, as legal scholars have been pointing out, one potential consequence of this trial might be be encouraging toxic masculinity with money to try to use the courts to shut up women. The fact that this ludicrous idea was taken to a lawyer is indicative.

2022-06-02 12:47:38 @jaryoung01 Brilliant. Waste, I guess, parents’ money to be told off by a lawyer. (Better: find a bad faith one willing to take the money to go after my 20-year-old Honda?)Ignore the fact that immunologists aren’t citing the pay-to-play journal papers, get mad at irrelevant people.

2022-06-02 03:25:29 RT @nytopinion: “The history of PEPFAR offers an example of what an ambitious and strategic global health initiative can achieve,” writes a…

2022-06-01 19:39:22 @rikeijames @halvorz That really sounds like some legacy code tbh “Yeah John did something with that to make it do something else” fast forward, turns out nobody has a clue except two people who realize something something *insert magic* now the pseudorandom number has 0.3% predictability… profit.

2022-06-01 19:12:34 @jonst0kes That’s not the difference, come on. UK colonized Hong Kong and legally gave it over to China without asking the people. That’s the international law right now. You really can’t be arguing small arms in the hands of the populace would make the difference here, ceteris paribus.

2022-06-01 18:54:40 @halvorz Need someone to write a book with examples

2022-06-01 18:54:18 @halvorz The border between the material substrate and the very first level of abstraction=Archimedes’ fulcrum and lever for magic, aka doing things that shouldn’t be possible in either universe alone—almost everyone lives in one or the other universe alone, as far as they are concerned.

2022-06-01 18:46:50 @halvorz Want watermarks? Sure, "alter disk write function at bios level to allow it to put stuff down in materially-existing places nonetheless invisible to the OS abstractly-addressed read function, but you can go look for it yourself" kinda stuff.

2022-06-01 18:45:23 @halvorz I had not read that!I'd pay for stories of going *teeny tiny bit below the abstraction* to do cool stuff using knowledge of the material substrate.

2022-06-01 18:36:29 @MLTellado Thank you! And yes, thank you for your work on this!

2022-06-01 18:29:33 @halvorz Would you rather debug assembly or python? (Especially when person writing the code in the former, long gone can’t ask, used a quirk of how bios routines interact with microcode to get something done).

2022-06-01 16:10:34 Very often, the article is much better than the headline, but still, most people will only see the headline. It's good to fight stigma by correctly pointing out that sexual activity among men—the network that the outbreak happened—doesn't mean it's the *only* transmission path.

2022-06-01 16:08:03 I need to start a file. Maybe ~20% of "fact checks" I've recently seen promoted are either outright false, at least the headline, and/or outside the domain of fact-checking—open scientific questions being subjected to tortured fact-checks.Less is more, and *watch* the headline.

2022-06-01 16:03:57 Could Reuters fix the headline, and could Twitter stop promoting such "fact-checks" via headline?If we mean not *just*, that's fine. That's the headline."Monkeypox may well be sexually-transmitted, something being investigated, but all sorts of close contact can transmit it." https://t.co/v8hPCfClW2

2022-06-01 15:44:33 RT @jbakcoleman: I've posted about lefty covid misinfo, but this clip with @DrPatSoonShiong takes the cake. My jaw is on the floor. A

2022-06-01 15:43:36 RT @RonDeibert: As long as there are no meaningful checks on the mercenary surveillance industry, CEOs will always "sell to risky clients"…

2022-06-01 13:45:24 @EsotericCD Looks like Twitter fodder poll tbh

2022-06-01 04:35:32 @FozzyBearPDX @denise_dewald @nytimes You should see a doctor, or go to an ER and tell them. Best of luck.

2022-06-01 04:27:04 RT @denise_dewald: The @nytimes "DNA virus is heavier than an RNA virus so its not airborne" article has ANOTHER big mistake in it.People…

2022-06-01 03:38:28 RT @profwschiller: Days you don't forget in life. Standing with Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott, @SpeakerPelosi, @meganranney and @zeynep prepar…

2022-06-01 02:41:17 It does. It remains the best, accessible essay I know of that *explains* the basics without sacrificing complexity and remains explanatory and consistent with existing, large-scale real life data. I constantly get feedback on how useful it is. Read here: https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI https://t.co/DIENvUBpkd

2022-05-31 23:46:08 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Congress' failure to act is exacerbating COVID19 inequities and eroding our surveillance in our highest at-risk groups.

2022-05-31 22:21:01 RT @UREssien: 1/ NEW in @statnews.Spoke with @ushamcfarling about a new @JAMAInternalMed study showing how differential pulse oximetry…

2022-05-31 21:10:21 @DipierroAnthony Dramatically more so for the latest, see John's thread.

2022-05-31 20:59:41 Also, vaccines help even the immunocompromised, plus there are now preventative treatments, like Evusheld, that can increase their protection six months at a time. Spreading awareness of them and global, equitable distribution of treatments is crucial. https://t.co/0J43YFwAFs

2022-05-31 20:55:29 Not among working scientists, but on this site, I occasionally encounter theories that do not fit the existing, large-scale real-life data at all.Must-ask question for any theory: "What would the world look like, if this were true."To be science, it has to connect to reality.

2022-05-31 20:51:46 I'll again recommend this great essay from a year ago on waning, evolution (variants), individual immunity (and how/why some can remain more vulnerable).Remains a great explainer of last year *and* fits well-done studies and overwhelming real-life data. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI https://t.co/FTomwLe7oc

2022-05-31 20:46:52 As usual, the epicurve is very informative.Note that in the below chart for South Africa, the cases for the last wave are certainly undercounted—much less testing.That immunity is coming from prior infections, sadly, as vax rates remain low there.https://t.co/A2iWe8025N

2022-05-31 20:44:24 CDC updates page on reinfections, correctly noting that they're possible, and the evidence that reinfections tend to be less severe on average, but reminds that some individuals can have different experience—(research: especially if already frail). https://t.co/ghvljU7eFy https://t.co/IwX7uu9lRY

2022-05-31 19:58:38 RT @BrianRWasik: Thank you. Exactly.Inform. Trust people to know how to process their own emotions.

2022-05-31 16:12:40 Plus, this latest incident is really a good demonstration how much of incorrect, faulty assumptions can persist even among scientists without a campaign to update them, and how important it is to find the right experts and keep up with science when reporting. https://t.co/Jk9FfPNGvP

2022-05-31 15:33:43 "Given institutional failures, how does one find experts to trust on complex topics that we can't fully judge?" ->

2022-05-31 15:27:24 Adding this very useful thread. (Reactions to this study—uncritical sharing it vs reading it and raising the appropriate eyebrows—are a very good litmus test, in my opinion, on willingness and ability to think through research and causal questions).https://t.co/Hou3ST9Fa1

2022-05-31 14:00:04 Note her careful statement here, as well.It's a bit worrying that two years into a pandemic where this was a major topic and obstacle, the mode of transmission question of a new epidemic can start off with an obvious scientific misunderstanding. https://t.co/GZDrdiQ6IF

2022-05-31 13:53:33 Always listen to @linseymarr—correct expertise on this topic is aerosol scientists.This is the opposite of the fallacy that masks can't work because the virus is so small. The virus is, indeed, tiny but it doesn't travel in the air by itself. It's carried by aerosols/droplets. https://t.co/sRGVAYBJsD

2022-05-31 13:34:39 @profwschiller @SpeakerPelosi @meganranney @BrownUniversity It was great meeting you! Thanks for the picture!

2022-05-31 04:21:49 @marcelsalathe Yes! Clearly we can bring flu deaths down, too, especially with better indoor air infrastructure and more of what we learned with the pandemic!

2022-05-31 03:10:27 … People who do media: please mention Evusheld as one more tool in the arsenal for the immuncompromised. https://t.co/0Pndlr0AH7

2022-05-31 02:56:51 @PatWitt2432

2022-05-31 02:55:50 @AlexandraHo19 @KelseyTuoc I’m not begrudging anyone their anger. It’s still not me, and I’m glad you figured out the mistaken identity. (Also, there are some people on social media who misdirect such anger to random targets because they are trying to get more followers). Have a good day.

2022-05-31 02:50:33 @PatWitt2432 It’s so frustrating. The immunocompromised are extra vulnerable and this is a tool in the arsenal.

2022-05-31 02:08:21 @LongDesertTrain @AlexandraHo19 @KelseyTuoc No clue. Or this person has been around some of the persistent liars? There’s a particular case—a Twitter personality busy only with incessant lying to scared people all day, every day. Targets me, too. Anyway no big deal but I do find such cons sociologically interesting.

2022-05-31 02:02:04 @KelseyTuoc @AlexandraHo19 Thanks. It was March of 2020. Also I made that sociological argument about the mandates even back then. It was literally a potentially career-ending effort as everyone was against masks, partly because they didn’t understand the sociological aspect. Anyway, social media is weird!

2022-05-31 01:57:20 @AlexandraHo19 @KelseyTuoc Honestly, you’re either confusing me with somebody else, or maybe you’re the victim of some of the con artists on social media—the Twitter personalities that get followers by lying about everyone else, also about papers they misrepresent. I’ve seen such cons a lot.

2022-05-31 01:55:10 @AlexandraHo19 @KelseyTuoc Huh? Last I wrote about masks for the Atlantic, I argued everyone should wear masks indoors in public places, exactly because of the sociology of it—peer pressure. I made that exact argument for years, to explain mandates, including when everybody was against masks in early 2020.

2022-05-31 01:23:33 @LongDesertTrain @KelseyTuoc Yeah he’s great. We’ve corresponded on that point and did a joint interview, even once. He’s a national treasure.

2022-05-31 01:06:29 @AlexandraHo19 @KelseyTuoc Yes I’ve been making this point repeatedly for more than two years in many high profile outlets. But really there’s a limit to my small influence, obviously. Especially in the current social media environment where people lie, shamelessly and con gullible frustrated people. https://t.co/9OZKk4ylgG

2022-05-31 01:04:10 @3PSboyd

2022-05-30 23:45:07 @FinchTH I don’t know. I spent more than two years writing countless articles making this point again and again. Still see it in response to the monkeypox outbreak. Plus, obviously, just writing only does so much: people just “interpret” what one says based on preexisting tribal filters.

2022-05-30 21:58:05 Studies are coming in confirming how helpful Evusheld, a preventative drug for the immunocompromised, can be.Still, though, awareness is sorely lacking.The US has unused supplies. There should be efforts to distribute more of this globally, as well.https://t.co/YFZPYQ5ZYR

2022-05-30 21:44:51 What are good streets for Manhattanhedge besides the usual recs? (Meaning something besides 14th, 34th, 42nd, 57th, 79th streets—preferrably something north of 79th?)Asking for someone willing to join social spectacles, but wouldn't mind trading a lesser view for less crowds. https://t.co/04GuxW34yP

2022-05-30 18:16:49 RT @GoberLass: ‘The obsession with managing public opinion gets in the way of managing public health.’

2022-05-30 16:22:46 @phealthsean @rkhamsi Indeed. But not only do they forget that, they often act in ways focused on, in their imagination, minimizing panic even if it counterproductive to minimizing the actual threat.

2022-05-30 16:20:58 @RiaRex2 Oh my. Wow. I thought I’d seen it all.

2022-05-30 16:14:17 @RiaRex2 You… have a link to that?

2022-05-30 16:12:28 Yep. “You don’t need to worry about this”, isn’t great messaging under most circumstances but after the last two years, it’s particularly counterproductive.Tell us what’s being done to get things under control and how, show competence—and leave how people should feel out of it. https://t.co/B8X8N1B9OV

2022-05-30 16:06:39 @RiaRex2 Eating them?? That’s a new one?

2022-05-30 15:55:06 @elkmovie @KelseyTuoc I agree that’s a problem but you get in front of that by gaining credibility and messaging appropriately based on that. Confusion just leads to worse.

2022-05-30 15:53:12 The job is to make the objective conditions better to lessen the need for worry and panic. Focus on what people *should* feel doesn’t work, backfires, and it leads to decisions that worsen the objective conditions.Inform, empower, improve and gain credibility. Rest will follow.

2022-05-30 15:51:00 This isn’t just for epidemics: there’s a rich sociological study of many disasters and other crises.The authorities come in to the situation with excessive worries about panic among the public, and they often make everything worse because of that mindset.

2022-05-30 15:48:23 Absolutely this, by @KelseyTuoc. Let’s stop telling people how to feel about the Monkeypox outbreak. Saying“no need to panic” isn’t informative or reassuring on its own.Focus should be on what’s known, what’s being done and what should be done. https://t.co/cWXLRMoz0v https://t.co/rU1Pkp9Ti6

2022-05-30 15:22:02 @HaktanHukuk @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews

2022-05-30 14:43:41 @PeterASinger @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews Thank you!

2022-05-30 14:33:55 @asociologist @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews Thank you!

2022-05-30 13:47:15 @MaraEinstein @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews Thank you!

2022-05-30 13:33:30 @JulietSchor Thank you!

2022-05-30 03:01:22 @skadooshle Thank you!!!

2022-05-30 02:16:17 RT @TheTNHoller: Today’s @nytimes.#HowManyMore https://t.co/F7xo6iwxnC

2022-05-30 01:14:16 RT @MarkLevineNYC: The #Manhattanhenge pics are coming in!

2022-05-30 01:12:59 @tgeveci @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews

2022-05-29 23:37:56 @beenwrekt @awgaffney @phealthsean Haven’t yet read that last one yet as noted, but 30-50% in the winter wave in NYC is not implausible. The issue at hand for this thread is that the number is so large that claims about after effects and their rates will be observable in basic statistics.

2022-05-29 23:17:12 @awgaffney @phealthsean One-in-five last month! One-in-two over winter! Numbers are really very large.Yeah, severity ratios dropped really dramatically. But at this scale, even with very low ratios, it can add up, since small % of a very, very large number is big! And that seems to have confused many.

2022-05-29 23:08:04 RT @LawrenceGostin: WHO saying #monkeypox could become established in human rings true. Many diseases of global concern originated in anima…

2022-05-29 22:39:30 @phealthsean @awgaffney Here’s another recent one. Am reading soon but plausible/in line with other studies. Because the severity has been relatively so much less as a proportion of cases in last wave, hospitalized/ICU numbers are no longer a good direct estimate of (pretty large recently) case counts. https://t.co/ZtsJSK01fe

2022-05-29 22:28:02 It was indeed an honor, to be in this amazing company of people receiving honorary degrees from Brown. https://t.co/bp57wojFio

2022-05-29 21:12:22 @JoshuaPCohen1 @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews @nytimes @TheAtlantic

2022-05-29 20:48:19 @callous25027023 Thank you!

2022-05-29 19:54:46 @prudencelcarter @BrownUniversity @BrownSociology @ASAnews An honor and a pleasure to meet with both of you!

2022-05-29 18:44:17 https://t.co/MuYr50ynOk

2022-05-29 18:43:29 @farhanmemon @BrownUniversity Thank you!

2022-05-29 15:15:40 Excellent weather in Providence, and grateful for an amazing day at Brown University. https://t.co/YcHwVZSnZl

2022-05-29 11:20:37 RT @Monasosh: Alaa's story in the Sunday Times printed issue today "British British blogger’s jail nightmare reveals the grim reality of E…

2022-05-28 19:21:24 RT @fordm: I’d wondered how an 18-year-old could afford the two rifles he bought. Turns out the manufacturers have financing plans. https:/…

2022-05-28 18:50:16 @phealthsean @awgaffney Well, we can look at a variety of data sources. United Kingdom has much better data. New York itself is very telling. Whatever the variation, the claims are so large that it would be fairly impossible to miss them if they were to come true. Which is why it requires urgent action.

2022-05-28 18:37:36 @awgaffney Also if anyone at those institutions believe the numbers they’re publishing, they should interrupt the President to say he needs to address the nation, today. It’s one or the other—pick one folks. Not even saying which, but one. The alternative is even more loss of credibility.

2022-05-28 15:28:06 RT @CameronWEF: Peng Shuai is resting at home.

2022-05-28 15:12:30 Also, the epicurve is the ultimate reality review.Whatever numbers are being claimed eventually have to show up somewhere— and the bigger the claim, the less likely that bias or lack of surveillance is hiding *all of it.*More numbersense less numberwang would help greatly.

2022-05-28 15:06:23 RT @Brown_SPH: TODAY! Amazing opportunities at @BrownUniversity to learn from distinguished faculty and guests at #Brown2022 Commencement F…

2022-05-28 02:45:30 Flags half-mast.And the reason was not any kind of *well-regulated* militia. https://t.co/NxjgQxRh0e

2022-05-28 00:15:16 RT @amandataub: So if I'm clear on their timeline here, when it was not legal for him to buy guns, he didn't get them. And then when it was…

2022-05-27 23:08:42 RT @charlie_savage: The shooter in Uvalde locked the classroom door from the inside so he could murder kids at his leisure while the police…

2022-05-27 23:06:37 RT @EdwardGLuce: Should have added that 2004 was when assault weapon ban ended. This isn't rocket science.

2022-05-27 22:59:48 @random_walker https://t.co/yQIVRdmxlA

2022-05-27 21:31:24 RT @brianschatz: The door thing is a trap so we spend two days talking about doors with door experts debunking it or whatever. Stay focused…

2022-05-27 20:00:54 RT @megreenwell: The agony of these pediatricians waiting for a mass casualty event that never arrived because an AR-15 doesn’t leave survi…

2022-05-27 19:09:22 RT @SheilaCoronel: Scholarships available for a 3-week investigative reporting course @columbiajourn fors reporters &

2022-05-27 18:25:40 RT @BenjySarlin: The specifics of this police failure are horrifying, but many of the *best* case scenarios implied for school shootings in…

2022-05-27 18:25:19 RT @KarenGrepin: I would argue it shows that we have have failed. Monkeypox is endemic in the DRC and recent large-scale outbreaks - over…

2022-05-27 17:51:49 RT @Mike_Hixenbaugh: Across the street from the NRA convention: “Am I next?” https://t.co/bEl9vLY6gG

2022-05-27 15:00:56 RT @random_walker: A recurring pattern in AI that judges people:–The vendor markets it as a one-stop solution to win clients.–But the fin…

2022-05-27 14:31:39 @random_walker @JessicaHullman @sayashk @priyakalot This looks like a great paper!

2022-05-27 14:31:03 RT @random_walker: Excited to have played a small part in this paper led by @JessicaHullman and co-authored by @sayashk, @priyakalot, and A…

2022-05-27 14:12:36 Always read @kashhill.Many institutions use automated surveillance to decide if a student is cheating on tests as part of remote learning.Often, this means a clunky, unaccountable algorithm barely overseen by low-paid workers abroad has great power.https://t.co/oK90UqdkmW

2022-05-27 01:01:17 @MarkLevineNYC That’s good they’re ring vaccinating.

2022-05-27 00:08:25 @BenMazer @AaronRichterman *That* one sounds like it was by this guy. https://t.co/6xdwKLWegB

2022-05-27 00:04:19 @AaronRichterman @BenMazer Yeah. It's terrible, though, two years in, to have this kind of muddle between message and policy. It's confusing to everyone, and yes, the speed of dissemination is a challenge but they should anticipate that, too. (Nobody listens to wait, read and think for a minute pleas).

2022-05-26 19:19:19 @BenMazer Obviously, people can't be expected to read these papers and spot the problems themselves. And forget my judgment of any of it... Not relevant.If this were their sincere belief, as an institution, there would need to be a presidential address same day, along with publication.

2022-05-26 19:14:28 @BenMazer I get that. Problem is this makes a mockery of public health messaging.Option one, we believe this but ignoring implications. Option two, we don't believe it (because we certainly aren't acting like we do).Option three, we never think about what our findings imply, as policy.

2022-05-26 17:42:03 @sturdyAlex When Uğur Şahin switched BioNTech to vaccines—end of January 2020, because he read those public papers that anyone else could read and realize the pandemic was coming our way—he divided employees into two, isolated teams so if one got taken down, the vaccine work could continue.

2022-05-26 17:15:16 RT @BogochIsaac: "Quebec to start vaccinating against monkeypox as cases climb to 25."Watch for other regions to soon offer vaccination t…

2022-05-26 15:51:44 @n_l_v_t @fjordsfjords @jonst0kes @jwhite88 @opensrcdefense Including stuff from the seventies is the obvious clue of the usefulness of that framing.

2022-05-26 15:43:51 @linseymarr Best wishes to your household!

2022-05-26 15:41:32 @WndlB That is exactly what made that fraud possible, I think, even though you literally had to look at the tables for a minute and think wait, what? It was a disappointing moment, for sure, to see how it played out, and how little reflection there was after it became openly known.

2022-05-26 15:15:07 I've seen a lot of reluctance to speak up by senior people who absolutely notice the issues—careers, grants, etc. but also peers and a real fear of being tarred as a minimizer.I think lack of that kind of coherent, senior voices has torpedoed credibility, and our response.

2022-05-26 15:10:00 @jonst0kes @jwhite88 @opensrcdefense Look at what they almost all use, and how it actually plays out... Forget the counterfactual if it were people you know—most everyone is well aware of the grim range of alternative possibles. We have a type of event, type of person and timelines.

2022-05-26 15:06:19 Wait a bit and let the post-peer review happen and ask around widely is a good idea for anyone not in a position to themselves look at the methods, specifications, statistics, etc., deeply and haven't also read many other papers on the topic. (Not that anyone will listen).

2022-05-26 15:04:22 There's now a fairly robust post-peer review process, but takes a bit longer when the paper/study is coming from public health authorities and/or is in prestige journals.Running with papers quickly without diving into that process isn't a good idea. Not that anyone will listen.

2022-05-26 15:01:36 @jonst0kes @jwhite88 @opensrcdefense Again, the counterfactual isn't what a smart, sane, cool-headed person might be able to do nonetheless. I disagree with the "at leisure" assessment, factually. I don't think that's how it's been playing out recently.

2022-05-26 14:59:51 I remember the initial buzz around the fraudalent Surgisphere HCQ papers that made it into The Lancet and NEJM (eventually retracted).Many with data/number/scientific sense *immediately* raised eyebrows, despite also thinking HCQ hype was false and misguided. Others rushed.

2022-05-26 14:56:36 Key point. Multiple examples of misspecified, misrepresented or misframed papers—even in prestige journals.In my experience, issues are quickly noticed by many but there's an initial reluctance. But less careful people run with them quickly.Need to give it a bit of time. https://t.co/mqdGxAXC3a

2022-05-26 14:46:54 @jonst0kes @jwhite88 The script for their ritual makes the body count higher too. The counterfactual isn't hold everything else constant and smartly optimize around one difference. Everyone who thinks about grim stuff knows much worse options are available, were these not the kind of people they are.

2022-05-26 14:38:42 @jwhite88 @jonst0kes When they put fences in bridges known for suicides, rates go down permanently and people don't go to nearby, just as high, bridges instead. Many such examples like that. You guys have absolutely the wrong mental model of these shooters. They're not playing your game.

2022-05-26 14:27:38 @jonst0kes Your details are counterfactuals of "what are the options available to a smart, knowledgable, calculating and cool-headed person similar to people I know" to assess whether a ban would hinder that person. That's not the person. The details that matter are what actually happens.

2022-05-26 14:18:04 @jonst0kes Also need to look at the past few years, about a decade, not lump in stuff from before where there was less clear a pattern/coherence to the script.

2022-05-26 14:14:49 @jonst0kes You're analyzing the wrong question. These are chess questions. The mass shooters, especially school shooters aren't playing chess. Just a table of the past decade of gun type/toll/location is clear. This is classic overthinking 5D chess by people who know a lot of details.

2022-05-26 13:53:50 @jonst0kes There's a difference between "the police did not go in guns blazing" and "he was free to move around." As you note, they establish "perimeter" and wait. You really think he could just walk out unopposed, for forty minutes? Hasn't happened a single time in many many years.

2022-05-26 13:50:33 @jonst0kes He wasn't free to move around. Most of the deaths come almost immediately in these shootings. These are well-documented. Whatever counterfactuals one may propose, there are actual cases—many of them.

2022-05-26 13:48:57 @jonst0kes There is obviously a reason armies care about rate of fire and capacity, and it's not all of a sudden not-a-thing when it becomes to these shootings. (Also, of course the psychology of the type of weapon matters: these people are playing out a culturally widespread script).

2022-05-26 13:46:30 @jonst0kes He wasn't free to move around. In any case, in most of these cases in the past many years, most of the killing is done in the first few minutes, and intervention attempts (tackling or police show up) are quick, and the size of the toll is coming from the rate of fire.

2022-05-26 12:36:12 RT @LeMonde_EN: In Egypt, Alaa Abdel Fattah's hunger strike challenges President Sissi https://t.co/RlcjNR8Eie

2022-05-25 12:30:15 @jason41taylor United Kingdom had a school shooting. Cracked down on guns. Not another one in 26 years. Knives can’t kill as many as quickly.

2022-05-25 12:21:40 Exactly. Surveillance, early warning, AI, etc. work for certain kinds of aims. Marketing, political targeting, identifying likely members or routine, structural dynamics.Not this. To put it in research terms, there is no method that would work here with reasonable reliability. https://t.co/Q3OXtAhTTX

2022-05-25 12:18:23 @AdamLoebSmall Yeah

2022-05-25 12:16:08 @warisill Not approvingly!

2022-05-25 12:15:45 We’ve read a zillion profiles.Almost all troubled young men. Indistinguishable. There are many, many people who are troubled or go through a tough time.There is no science, surveillance, early warning, AI magic that will reliably identify who’ll pick up the gun to kill. None.

2022-05-25 12:11:31 I do not want to read a single profile of the shooter. Enough. Nothing will allow us to predict which of the many, many troubled young man will turn to a mass shooter. Zero public interest in the individual details.It’s the access to the deadly gun that’s the key. That’s it.

2022-05-25 12:05:15 RT @MarkLevineNYC: And the Supreme Court is poised to make this horrific situation even worse, by nullifying NY's law that requires a permi…

2022-05-25 04:46:57 RT @brookejarvis: And if you look at gun deaths among children in high-income countries, the enormous majority of those kids die here in th…

2022-05-25 04:37:23 RT @brookejarvis: If you're a child in America, you're more likely to die from a gun than any other cause https://t.co/xGorZxzG2S

2022-05-25 02:40:48 RT @AaronRichterman: May 19, 2022 - NEJM"Firearm-related injuries were second only to motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death…

2022-05-25 02:36:22 RT @dremilyportermd: In plain English: Because the children were blown to smithereens and they can’t identify the victims.

2022-05-25 02:34:33 RT @pwhickey: “Of note, this is strictly a US problem. The authors cite a sobering statistic: 90% of all firearm deaths for children 0-14 y…

2022-05-25 01:12:50 RT @biannagolodryga: He was engaged by school district law enforcement, while wearing body armor. A similar scenario played out in Buffalo…

2022-05-25 00:56:41 RT @allinwithchris: .@ChrisMurphyCT: “The difference between America and these other nations is not that there aren’t people with homicidal…

2022-05-25 00:54:08 RT @nyt_diff: Change in Abstract https://t.co/699R75prmJ

2022-05-25 00:24:02 Can't buy a can of light beer for three more years, can't rent a car for seven more. https://t.co/zjh8kpEdSJ

2022-05-24 22:53:30 RT @chrislhayes: This really was a fulcrum.

2022-05-24 21:43:37 RT @YAppelbaum: Few things I’ve ever edited haunt me the way this one does. I cannot forget the descriptions of what high-velocity bullets…

2022-05-24 20:57:58 RT @williamadler78: This could have been my kids. Your kids. Anyone.

2022-05-24 18:52:58 RT @BenMazer: New study on vaccine effectiveness in cancer patients confirms high levels of severe disease protection: 75-85% protection ag…

2022-05-20 08:11:00 CAFIAC FIX

2022-10-29 17:27:13 RT @MassMECFS: The paper version of today's @nytimes. Thank you @zeynep for bringing attention to this way-too-long overlooked illness.

2022-10-29 17:26:36 This is what works. Other methods can and will get phished, with some effort. See rest of threads. https://t.co/hcnRBw7Ocd

2022-10-29 17:18:08 This is an actual crime, from what I understand, yet fake vaccine card spam is rampant on Twitter despite language being so consistent. (So let’s cc:@elonmusk, as this hits the trifecta of crime, spam and why isn’t the code catching all this better?) https://t.co/89hY8A2bu5 https://t.co/eqydgLk8mn

2022-10-29 16:15:30 In today’s @nytimes, my piece on ME (and Long Covid) patients risking their already fragile health to protest to advocate for research.One key part is the devastating world of post-exertional malaise: a poorly-understood symptom that sets them apart, and challenges assumptions. https://t.co/guQQq2f6Lm

2022-10-29 15:02:35 It was wrong to dismiss the looming pandemic threat against a novel virus in early 2020 with "worry about the flu instead" stuff (I railed against it) and it's also wrong to dismiss the obvious, ongoing burden of even seasonal influenza *now*—it's very real.

2022-10-29 14:58:12 @mehdirhasan Influenza has long been an underrated threat among the public, and all the "what about the flu" comparisons in early 2020 to dismiss the huge threat of the looming pandemic really didn't help—similar to "it's not the flu" comparisons made to COVID now, as if flu isn't a big deal!

2022-10-29 14:55:24 @mehdirhasan Absolutely, we should vaccinate our population against the flu much more widely, since it was obviously going to come back. It's possible the elderly might need two shots—just like with COVID, aging caused immunosenescence makes them more vulnerable.

2022-10-29 14:50:47 Also, pandemics clearly produce larger waves of post-viral ailments—this one or 1918 are the examples.But epidemic flu can, and does, absolutely trigger postviral ME in some people (numbers less clear) as well as lengthy, lingering symptoms in more people (well-documented).

2022-10-29 14:45:43 US flu update. After two years of very little activity, statistics indicate an early start to flu season—and a good deal of severe cases.This year's vaccines are a good match to the circulating strain. (They would still help even if they weren't, but even more so when they do). https://t.co/2rQZ2vZXt6 https://t.co/5cM98u1HbW

2022-10-29 14:35:02 @ShariBoxerBaker @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-29 14:34:29 US Monkeypox update. Cases continue to decline. Still almost all men. Zero outside of introductions from elsewhere is quite plausible, if we keep up with testing, vaccinating and informing.So infuriating there's little effort to help people in endemic countries get vaccinated. https://t.co/wFoBVQeLGk

2022-10-29 14:20:30 @adamgurri Lol not at all my intention to suggest anyone else could easily deal with this transition. Recognizing the correct problem would be a good start, though.

2022-10-29 13:55:20 @MarkLevineNYC I have to say, that's been like that for a long, long time. I think there might be some concentrated efforts to troll, now as there's attention, but social media/Twitter has been full of a range of anti-vaccine stuff—from outright lies to nonsensical misframing—the whole time.

2022-10-29 13:38:20 Singapore XBB update. The decline in Covid cases continue.99.7% of cases "asymptomatic or mild".In the last four weeks, 70 people ever in ICU and 44 deceased—in a country of ~six million.Deaths were overwhelmingly from the small percent of people still not fully-vaccinated. https://t.co/hgwwT1z4gF

2022-10-29 13:11:39 RT @ahmed: Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed becomes Twitter’s second-largest investor after Elon Musk

2022-10-29 13:00:36 RT @paulmozur: There’s more. Here’s China’s gov’t asking contractors to build and keep up networks of sock puppet accounts. Because they’r…

2022-10-29 13:00:20 RT @paulmozur: There’s also the police who have detained thousands of domestic Chinese twitter users. Sometimes the police even reach out o…

2022-10-29 13:00:11 RT @paulmozur: For examples about how this works, last year we showed how Chinese state media and embassy accounts on twitter spread YouTub…

2022-10-29 13:00:00 RT @paulmozur: Exhibit two in the trend. Again China has been massively active on Twitter with bot nets boosting state media/diplomat disin…

2022-10-29 12:37:16 @book_learning Indeed. That's the part that makes the disease extra difficult for people to understand. The risk is not minor, as you say, some people have very long-term crashes.

2022-10-29 00:32:08 @vgr heh

2022-10-28 23:56:05 @bilalfarooqui You're gonna dig into that from the code printout? You've seen ML code, right? Have a sense of how/why it works, I assume? "Show me the code" is not in your first seventy steps or so to get at that question.

2022-10-28 23:46:10 @HoddyHarrington @CaseyNewton Yeah, me too.

2022-10-28 23:44:17 "Print the code" doesn't even make sense from the tech view, given machine learning.I mean, if the wish is to have a fun conversation about how linear algebra ended up playing a big societal role, sure. I like such chats! Invite me to them!Not really their challenge though.

2022-10-28 23:40:33 Also, speaking of printing the code, most of the crucial parts are probably machine learning, and best of luck figuring that out from only the code.That's also why "turn over the algorithm!" usually isn't the transparency we need. The real action isn't in the code alone.

2022-10-28 23:38:00 The "what about the code" part is a bit like "if the people only knew" feelings activists sometimes express. Informational flows are important, but in most societies, it's really not about singular information. There's rarely a magic piece of info that would change everything.

2022-10-28 23:34:55 @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-28 23:34:15 So @CaseyNewton reports that Musk asked Twitter engineers to print their code, and be ready for "code pairings" with Musk.As my own quote tweet below, I guess Musk is the next in line to discover the obvious: he's now in a people business, not a tech one. https://t.co/eqQfLQlb8H https://t.co/E7Somg6oex

2022-10-28 21:41:07 RT @kaitlancollins: Pelosi’s office says her husband was attacked by an assailant who “threatened his life while demanding to see the Speak…

2022-10-28 21:22:23 RT @propublica: New: The Wuhan lab at the center of suspicions about the pandemic’s onset was far more troubled than known, documents unear…

2022-10-28 19:04:24 @MEActNet Much gratitude to everyone who participated, despite all the challenges.

2022-10-28 19:00:07 RT @IFEX: #UK Foreign secretary @JamesCleverly urged to act over jailed British–Egyptian hunger striker. via: @guardian https://t.co/jETUV

2022-10-28 18:54:47 Thread, with details on ME, relevant to Long Covid as well. https://t.co/mGAMk52wsV

2022-10-28 15:53:35 RT @dandrezner: Really glad I got vaccinated last month.

2022-10-28 12:22:53 Being ill is difficult

2022-10-28 12:03:47 Emily on Twitter! (Check out her insta above, too!)I have met many brave activists around the world, now Emily too. Best part of my job. I'm honored to have had the chance to try to convey Emily's strength, perseverance and joy in this piece. @hope4pwMEhttps://t.co/9rx7XRWS7t

2022-10-28 11:53:54 @AaronTeasdale @nytopinion Hoping things move much faster, Aaron, and wish you the best.

2022-10-28 11:45:35 RT @hope4pwME: I’m in the @nytimes talking about my experience with #MyalgicEncephalomyelitis thanks @zeynep for words and research and @kh…

2022-10-28 03:06:08 RT @VanessaFuchsArt: This is me- exactly. Except some days, walking upstairs and taking a shower has the same effect.

2022-10-28 00:41:56 @AMoore864 You’re very welcome. I hope things move faster, soon.

2022-10-28 00:28:06 RT @HollinBrav: I’m so proud of these protesters, risking all that they did for greater visibility for #MECFS and #LongCovid. #MEAction ht…

2022-10-27 23:19:43 RT @nytopinion: “Protests can grab the attention of the world, invoking awe through stunning acts of bravery,” @zeynep writes. But the brav…

2022-10-27 23:04:11 RT @cjmaddison: I have come to realize that those suffering with ME/CFS are some of the bravest people to have ever lived.

2022-10-27 22:44:41 RT @DetsNick: Amazing work by ⁦@zeynep⁩! Shows that our #MECFS advocacy is limited by our inherent physical limitation. ⁦I’d love to see pr…

2022-10-27 21:33:57 @julierehmeyer Exactly. Absolutely. We did this over multiple weeks trying to be as careful as possible. But completely aware of the difficult choices. So much strength and bravery there.

2022-10-27 21:01:04 RT @ClayCrosbyLMFT: Thank you to Zeynep Tufekci @zeynep for this @nytimes article. Attention must finally be paid.@MEActNOW #MECFS #Mil…

2022-10-27 20:59:20 @Amy14BV Indeed.

2022-10-27 20:25:43 Hence the need for this, at all levels of advocacy and protest. https://t.co/8EqLAaxeHl

2022-10-27 20:18:20 The topic of ACT UP and early AIDS protests came up a lot.That disease is horrific, but between infection and impairment, there was a period when patients could protest—chain themselves to the WH fence or follow politicians around. ME patients cannot do that. They're too ill.

2022-10-27 19:34:45 RT @butwait: Up &

2022-10-27 19:00:52 RT @karlitaliliana: This is the hardest part about Long Covid. Your body can actually do many things physically but the punishment for “ove…

2022-10-27 17:44:54 RT @shelleyjules: This is an important piece. Friends and family and HCWs most often do not understand what happens in the weeks after they…

2022-10-27 17:22:55 RT @TamraSpeakman: Great article on the recent ME protest &

2022-10-23 22:44:55 @mindstalk Lol. It’s such an obviously ridiculous example of “we have tons of varied, coherent and consistent evidence it works in practice from around the world but can we now have put our names on a study based on lousy data that implies it doesn’t work in theory” that one despairs.

2022-10-23 17:24:48 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho I find it implausible that a broad recommendation is causing older people not to get boosters. That makes no sense. On the other hand, unnecessary confusion about the benefits of boosters as a lot of high profile people bicker about marginal stuff looks a lot more contributory.

2022-10-23 16:58:36 RT @JonMurray: A good reminder to get up to date on your boosters. The US is behind countries like Singapore, which appears to be weatherin…

2022-10-23 16:54:34 (Subtweeting a public health agency of an, ahem, large country: vaccine efficacy cannot be calculated under conditions of widespread population seropositivity by ignoring that variable simply because your data sucks, especially if your hospitalization ascertainment *also* sucks).

2022-10-23 16:51:04 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho We went through this last year...

2022-10-23 16:50:29 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho More focus is fine but.. Diseases travel in populations, there is more to the science and data of immunology than lagging indicators like clinical outcomes (which will come, as they did last year), affinity maturation matters, and lower risk is better even if low to begin.

2022-10-23 16:47:20 Update on Singapore. Despite a wave of cases, very few people in the hospital, let alone the ICU.99.8% of known cases remain mild or asymptomatic (probably higher given underdetection).As we see from around the world, vaccine efficacy against severity upholds remarkably well. https://t.co/Q2p71dJSOw

2022-10-23 16:26:45 RT @GreenpeaceUK: The UK government cannot turn a blind eye to this.@JamesCleverly, will you come out and meet @sana2?https://t.co/EPPx

2022-10-23 16:17:57 @BenMazer @19joho The study even notes it as a "limitation". It's not a "limitation" if you act like a variable that's so central to the question can be ignored just because you have no sensible data. Anyway, this is tragic for the US tbh, but other countries have actual data and studies.

2022-10-23 16:12:50 @BenMazer @19joho If VE against hospitalization fell as low as that paper claims, we'd have had to turn Central Park into a field hospital in Winter 2022 (See Hong Kong data). They don't have seropositivity data, so they ignore it. Meanwhile, we have real life and other countries with actual data.

2022-10-23 03:41:34 @codinghorror

2022-10-22 22:53:04 RT @khalidabdalla: This both breaks and lifts my heart.

2022-10-22 12:37:36 RT @shashj: In light of Hu's removal from the party congress, our piece from last week on Xi's effort to curb the power of party elders. ".…

2022-10-21 19:09:39 RT @NaomiAKlein: An honour to appear alongside the courageous @sana2 - now on Day 3 of her 24/7 sit-in to #FreeAll. #Cop27

2022-10-21 17:17:17 @WomenScienceRFS

2022-10-21 12:50:31 @gmarquez2014

2022-10-30 01:31:52 RT @utopiah: Kathleen Booth 'wrote all the software for the ARC2 and SEC machines, in the process inventing what she called "Contracted Not…

2022-10-29 17:27:13 RT @MassMECFS: The paper version of today's @nytimes. Thank you @zeynep for bringing attention to this way-too-long overlooked illness.

2022-10-29 17:26:36 This is what works. Other methods can and will get phished, with some effort. See rest of threads. https://t.co/hcnRBw7Ocd

2022-10-29 17:18:08 This is an actual crime, from what I understand, yet fake vaccine card spam is rampant on Twitter despite language being so consistent. (So let’s cc:@elonmusk, as this hits the trifecta of crime, spam and why isn’t the code catching all this better?) https://t.co/89hY8A2bu5 https://t.co/eqydgLk8mn

2022-10-29 16:15:30 In today’s @nytimes, my piece on ME (and Long Covid) patients risking their already fragile health to protest to advocate for research.One key part is the devastating world of post-exertional malaise: a poorly-understood symptom that sets them apart, and challenges assumptions. https://t.co/guQQq2f6Lm

2022-10-29 15:02:35 It was wrong to dismiss the looming pandemic threat against a novel virus in early 2020 with "worry about the flu instead" stuff (I railed against it) and it's also wrong to dismiss the obvious, ongoing burden of even seasonal influenza *now*—it's very real.

2022-10-29 14:58:12 @mehdirhasan Influenza has long been an underrated threat among the public, and all the "what about the flu" comparisons in early 2020 to dismiss the huge threat of the looming pandemic really didn't help—similar to "it's not the flu" comparisons made to COVID now, as if flu isn't a big deal!

2022-10-29 14:55:24 @mehdirhasan Absolutely, we should vaccinate our population against the flu much more widely, since it was obviously going to come back. It's possible the elderly might need two shots—just like with COVID, aging caused immunosenescence makes them more vulnerable.

2022-10-29 14:50:47 Also, pandemics clearly produce larger waves of post-viral ailments—this one or 1918 are the examples.But epidemic flu can, and does, absolutely trigger postviral ME in some people (numbers less clear) as well as lengthy, lingering symptoms in more people (well-documented).

2022-10-29 14:45:43 US flu update. After two years of very little activity, statistics indicate an early start to flu season—and a good deal of severe cases.This year's vaccines are a good match to the circulating strain. (They would still help even if they weren't, but even more so when they do). https://t.co/2rQZ2vZXt6 https://t.co/5cM98u1HbW

2022-10-29 14:35:02 @ShariBoxerBaker @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-29 14:34:29 US Monkeypox update. Cases continue to decline. Still almost all men. Zero outside of introductions from elsewhere is quite plausible, if we keep up with testing, vaccinating and informing.So infuriating there's little effort to help people in endemic countries get vaccinated. https://t.co/wFoBVQeLGk

2022-10-29 14:20:30 @adamgurri Lol not at all my intention to suggest anyone else could easily deal with this transition. Recognizing the correct problem would be a good start, though.

2022-10-29 13:55:20 @MarkLevineNYC I have to say, that's been like that for a long, long time. I think there might be some concentrated efforts to troll, now as there's attention, but social media/Twitter has been full of a range of anti-vaccine stuff—from outright lies to nonsensical misframing—the whole time.

2022-10-29 13:38:20 Singapore XBB update. The decline in Covid cases continue.99.7% of cases "asymptomatic or mild".In the last four weeks, 70 people ever in ICU and 44 deceased—in a country of ~six million.Deaths were overwhelmingly from the small percent of people still not fully-vaccinated. https://t.co/hgwwT1z4gF

2022-10-29 13:11:39 RT @ahmed: Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed becomes Twitter’s second-largest investor after Elon Musk

2022-10-29 13:00:36 RT @paulmozur: There’s more. Here’s China’s gov’t asking contractors to build and keep up networks of sock puppet accounts. Because they’r…

2022-10-29 13:00:20 RT @paulmozur: There’s also the police who have detained thousands of domestic Chinese twitter users. Sometimes the police even reach out o…

2022-10-29 13:00:11 RT @paulmozur: For examples about how this works, last year we showed how Chinese state media and embassy accounts on twitter spread YouTub…

2022-10-29 13:00:00 RT @paulmozur: Exhibit two in the trend. Again China has been massively active on Twitter with bot nets boosting state media/diplomat disin…

2022-10-29 12:37:16 @book_learning Indeed. That's the part that makes the disease extra difficult for people to understand. The risk is not minor, as you say, some people have very long-term crashes.

2022-10-29 00:32:08 @vgr heh

2022-10-28 23:56:05 @bilalfarooqui You're gonna dig into that from the code printout? You've seen ML code, right? Have a sense of how/why it works, I assume? "Show me the code" is not in your first seventy steps or so to get at that question.

2022-10-28 23:46:10 @HoddyHarrington @CaseyNewton Yeah, me too.

2022-10-28 23:44:17 "Print the code" doesn't even make sense from the tech view, given machine learning.I mean, if the wish is to have a fun conversation about how linear algebra ended up playing a big societal role, sure. I like such chats! Invite me to them!Not really their challenge though.

2022-10-28 23:40:33 Also, speaking of printing the code, most of the crucial parts are probably machine learning, and best of luck figuring that out from only the code.That's also why "turn over the algorithm!" usually isn't the transparency we need. The real action isn't in the code alone.

2022-10-28 23:38:00 The "what about the code" part is a bit like "if the people only knew" feelings activists sometimes express. Informational flows are important, but in most societies, it's really not about singular information. There's rarely a magic piece of info that would change everything.

2022-10-28 23:34:55 @brianvastag @MEActNet

2022-10-28 23:34:15 So @CaseyNewton reports that Musk asked Twitter engineers to print their code, and be ready for "code pairings" with Musk.As my own quote tweet below, I guess Musk is the next in line to discover the obvious: he's now in a people business, not a tech one. https://t.co/eqQfLQlb8H https://t.co/E7Somg6oex

2022-10-28 21:41:07 RT @kaitlancollins: Pelosi’s office says her husband was attacked by an assailant who “threatened his life while demanding to see the Speak…

2022-10-28 21:22:23 RT @propublica: New: The Wuhan lab at the center of suspicions about the pandemic’s onset was far more troubled than known, documents unear…

2022-10-28 19:04:24 @MEActNet Much gratitude to everyone who participated, despite all the challenges.

2022-10-28 19:00:07 RT @IFEX: #UK Foreign secretary @JamesCleverly urged to act over jailed British–Egyptian hunger striker. via: @guardian https://t.co/jETUV

2022-10-28 18:54:47 Thread, with details on ME, relevant to Long Covid as well. https://t.co/mGAMk52wsV

2022-10-28 15:53:35 RT @dandrezner: Really glad I got vaccinated last month.

2022-10-28 12:22:53 Being ill is difficult

2022-10-28 12:03:47 Emily on Twitter! (Check out her insta above, too!)I have met many brave activists around the world, now Emily too. Best part of my job. I'm honored to have had the chance to try to convey Emily's strength, perseverance and joy in this piece. @hope4pwMEhttps://t.co/9rx7XRWS7t

2022-10-28 11:53:54 @AaronTeasdale @nytopinion Hoping things move much faster, Aaron, and wish you the best.

2022-10-28 11:45:35 RT @hope4pwME: I’m in the @nytimes talking about my experience with #MyalgicEncephalomyelitis thanks @zeynep for words and research and @kh…

2022-10-28 03:06:08 RT @VanessaFuchsArt: This is me- exactly. Except some days, walking upstairs and taking a shower has the same effect.

2022-10-28 00:41:56 @AMoore864 You’re very welcome. I hope things move faster, soon.

2022-10-28 00:28:06 RT @HollinBrav: I’m so proud of these protesters, risking all that they did for greater visibility for #MECFS and #LongCovid. #MEAction ht…

2022-10-27 23:19:43 RT @nytopinion: “Protests can grab the attention of the world, invoking awe through stunning acts of bravery,” @zeynep writes. But the brav…

2022-10-27 23:04:11 RT @cjmaddison: I have come to realize that those suffering with ME/CFS are some of the bravest people to have ever lived.

2022-10-27 22:44:41 RT @DetsNick: Amazing work by ⁦@zeynep⁩! Shows that our #MECFS advocacy is limited by our inherent physical limitation. ⁦I’d love to see pr…

2022-10-27 21:33:57 @julierehmeyer Exactly. Absolutely. We did this over multiple weeks trying to be as careful as possible. But completely aware of the difficult choices. So much strength and bravery there.

2022-10-27 21:01:04 RT @ClayCrosbyLMFT: Thank you to Zeynep Tufekci @zeynep for this @nytimes article. Attention must finally be paid.@MEActNOW #MECFS #Mil…

2022-10-27 20:59:20 @Amy14BV Indeed.

2022-10-27 20:25:43 Hence the need for this, at all levels of advocacy and protest. https://t.co/8EqLAaxeHl

2022-10-27 20:18:20 The topic of ACT UP and early AIDS protests came up a lot.That disease is horrific, but between infection and impairment, there was a period when patients could protest—chain themselves to the WH fence or follow politicians around. ME patients cannot do that. They're too ill.

2022-10-27 19:34:45 RT @butwait: Up &

2022-10-27 19:00:52 RT @karlitaliliana: This is the hardest part about Long Covid. Your body can actually do many things physically but the punishment for “ove…

2022-10-27 17:44:54 RT @shelleyjules: This is an important piece. Friends and family and HCWs most often do not understand what happens in the weeks after they…

2022-10-27 17:22:55 RT @TamraSpeakman: Great article on the recent ME protest &

2022-10-23 22:44:55 @mindstalk Lol. It’s such an obviously ridiculous example of “we have tons of varied, coherent and consistent evidence it works in practice from around the world but can we now have put our names on a study based on lousy data that implies it doesn’t work in theory” that one despairs.

2022-10-23 17:24:48 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho I find it implausible that a broad recommendation is causing older people not to get boosters. That makes no sense. On the other hand, unnecessary confusion about the benefits of boosters as a lot of high profile people bicker about marginal stuff looks a lot more contributory.

2022-10-23 16:58:36 RT @JonMurray: A good reminder to get up to date on your boosters. The US is behind countries like Singapore, which appears to be weatherin…

2022-10-23 16:54:34 (Subtweeting a public health agency of an, ahem, large country: vaccine efficacy cannot be calculated under conditions of widespread population seropositivity by ignoring that variable simply because your data sucks, especially if your hospitalization ascertainment *also* sucks).

2022-10-23 16:51:04 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho We went through this last year...

2022-10-23 16:50:29 @drwilvancleve @BenMazer @19joho More focus is fine but.. Diseases travel in populations, there is more to the science and data of immunology than lagging indicators like clinical outcomes (which will come, as they did last year), affinity maturation matters, and lower risk is better even if low to begin.

2022-10-23 16:47:20 Update on Singapore. Despite a wave of cases, very few people in the hospital, let alone the ICU.99.8% of known cases remain mild or asymptomatic (probably higher given underdetection).As we see from around the world, vaccine efficacy against severity upholds remarkably well. https://t.co/Q2p71dJSOw

2022-10-23 16:26:45 RT @GreenpeaceUK: The UK government cannot turn a blind eye to this.@JamesCleverly, will you come out and meet @sana2?https://t.co/EPPx

2022-10-23 16:17:57 @BenMazer @19joho The study even notes it as a "limitation". It's not a "limitation" if you act like a variable that's so central to the question can be ignored just because you have no sensible data. Anyway, this is tragic for the US tbh, but other countries have actual data and studies.

2022-10-23 16:12:50 @BenMazer @19joho If VE against hospitalization fell as low as that paper claims, we'd have had to turn Central Park into a field hospital in Winter 2022 (See Hong Kong data). They don't have seropositivity data, so they ignore it. Meanwhile, we have real life and other countries with actual data.

2022-10-23 03:41:34 @codinghorror

2022-10-22 22:53:04 RT @khalidabdalla: This both breaks and lifts my heart.

2022-10-22 12:37:36 RT @shashj: In light of Hu's removal from the party congress, our piece from last week on Xi's effort to curb the power of party elders. ".…

2022-10-21 19:09:39 RT @NaomiAKlein: An honour to appear alongside the courageous @sana2 - now on Day 3 of her 24/7 sit-in to #FreeAll. #Cop27

2022-10-21 17:17:17 @WomenScienceRFS

2022-10-21 12:50:31 @gmarquez2014

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-24 23:11:08 @SirKneeland @SethTClarke Nutella? On a crust?

2022-11-24 23:10:56 @aaiqbal

2022-11-24 22:51:31 Rhubarb people at least made the chart! https://t.co/W6VjqbUGNa

2022-11-24 20:21:43 RT @at_tgibson: The EU has not been tough enough on #Egypt for too long. #COP27 and #FreeAlaa have brought the eyes of Europe to just how…

2022-11-24 20:13:51 @cjmaddison This isn’t necessarily about Long Covid though?

2022-11-24 18:40:36 RT @MarietjeSchaake: The institute does not disclose the source of its funding, but The New York Times obtained copies of the group’s annua…

2022-11-24 17:26:44 @Lujan588 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer We don’t test for it. It’s fairly common when one does, including 17% of people having two flu infections in a single year. https://t.co/higczdN6Hi

2022-11-24 15:45:53 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer That's why we need proper studies of all of this, and also why looking merely at abstracts of studies isn't enough. Have to understand what we're looking at? Suggestion, effect, proof, a clarion call to do a proper study, etc?

2022-11-24 15:44:42 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Could be: contributing, triggering *or* downstream of weaker immune system (Many such examples of results being overturned when switching from retrospective EHR to much better controlled studies, see HRT and cardiovascular events/mortality—reverse result from cohort was true).

2022-11-24 15:42:45 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Also, there's always "contributing", "accelarating" vs "but for" distinction. For example, Denmark study showed higher rates of Alzheimer and Parkinsons in elderly folks post-Covid (made headlines)—but also for post-influenza, at similarly elevated rates (largely ignored). +

2022-11-24 14:23:29 Refuting/checking essays that string together abstracts from cherry-picked studies that the author clearly didn’t understand or checked what happened later when scientists tried to drilled down to causal pathways? Little incentive for it on social media right now. So it goes.

2022-11-24 14:13:19 In fact, we already know some suggested effects were artifacts of higher diagnostic rates, not causal from an infection, because the predictions didn’t come true. Some other things are still unclear. You’d hardly know that from rando essays people RT without understanding.

2022-11-24 14:09:57 Some things could be higher risk following an infection. Others may be an artifact of getting a workup as part of being ill—not caused by it but discovered because of that. Some studies suggest effects but not what caused elevated diagnoses. That requires more, different work.

2022-11-24 14:04:52 For all prospective studies of electronic health records: people who interact with the health system are more likely to be diagnosed with conditions they *already had* compared to people who don’t. Noting this also doesn’t prove no effect. Careful scientists read studies &

2022-11-24 12:46:35 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO chief Scientist: "We were not forcefully saying: “This is an airborne virus.” I regret that we didn't do this much,…

2022-11-23 20:21:32 RT @walidgellad: I want to again highlight this really important point when you see an observational study of paxlovid efficacy using date…

2022-11-23 19:49:53 @GregDore2 Lovely!

2022-11-23 19:47:23 @GregDore2 Is that Bondi Beach?

2022-11-23 19:21:29 Unfortunately, yes. Controlled, careful statistics can illuminate. In contra, stringing together anecdotes can often be a tragically easy way to lie. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-23 19:18:15 RT @hackneylad: "He chose not to die as a symbol, not to give up his life for whatever cost the regime will bear for it. He chose to live,…

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-25 22:02:55 RT @jljcolorado: @gabbystern @WHO @doctorsoumya If you are new to this #COVIDisAirborne topic and are perplexed, this thread explains the i…

2022-11-25 21:48:47 @gefeedly @tomgara Exactly. There is no choice, really.

2022-11-25 19:39:08 @tomgara https://t.co/SOvKwqIVui

2022-11-25 15:25:16 @BrianRWasik @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-25 10:24:16 @cjmaddison I can see your view of this, but I didn't see this as connected to Long Covid necessarily — instead, causal inference failures in science/study reporting are much broader, and this particular issue (EHR studies) is a perennial problem. I can try to pick other examples, though!

2022-11-24 23:11:08 @SirKneeland @SethTClarke Nutella? On a crust?

2022-11-24 23:10:56 @aaiqbal

2022-11-24 22:51:31 Rhubarb people at least made the chart! https://t.co/W6VjqbUGNa

2022-11-24 20:21:43 RT @at_tgibson: The EU has not been tough enough on #Egypt for too long. #COP27 and #FreeAlaa have brought the eyes of Europe to just how…

2022-11-24 20:13:51 @cjmaddison This isn’t necessarily about Long Covid though?

2022-11-24 18:40:36 RT @MarietjeSchaake: The institute does not disclose the source of its funding, but The New York Times obtained copies of the group’s annua…

2022-11-24 17:26:44 @Lujan588 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer We don’t test for it. It’s fairly common when one does, including 17% of people having two flu infections in a single year. https://t.co/higczdN6Hi

2022-11-24 15:45:53 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer That's why we need proper studies of all of this, and also why looking merely at abstracts of studies isn't enough. Have to understand what we're looking at? Suggestion, effect, proof, a clarion call to do a proper study, etc?

2022-11-24 15:44:42 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Could be: contributing, triggering *or* downstream of weaker immune system (Many such examples of results being overturned when switching from retrospective EHR to much better controlled studies, see HRT and cardiovascular events/mortality—reverse result from cohort was true).

2022-11-24 15:42:45 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Also, there's always "contributing", "accelarating" vs "but for" distinction. For example, Denmark study showed higher rates of Alzheimer and Parkinsons in elderly folks post-Covid (made headlines)—but also for post-influenza, at similarly elevated rates (largely ignored). +

2022-11-24 14:23:29 Refuting/checking essays that string together abstracts from cherry-picked studies that the author clearly didn’t understand or checked what happened later when scientists tried to drilled down to causal pathways? Little incentive for it on social media right now. So it goes.

2022-11-24 14:13:19 In fact, we already know some suggested effects were artifacts of higher diagnostic rates, not causal from an infection, because the predictions didn’t come true. Some other things are still unclear. You’d hardly know that from rando essays people RT without understanding.

2022-11-24 14:09:57 Some things could be higher risk following an infection. Others may be an artifact of getting a workup as part of being ill—not caused by it but discovered because of that. Some studies suggest effects but not what caused elevated diagnoses. That requires more, different work.

2022-11-24 14:04:52 For all prospective studies of electronic health records: people who interact with the health system are more likely to be diagnosed with conditions they *already had* compared to people who don’t. Noting this also doesn’t prove no effect. Careful scientists read studies &

2022-11-24 12:46:35 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO chief Scientist: "We were not forcefully saying: “This is an airborne virus.” I regret that we didn't do this much,…

2022-11-23 20:21:32 RT @walidgellad: I want to again highlight this really important point when you see an observational study of paxlovid efficacy using date…

2022-11-23 19:49:53 @GregDore2 Lovely!

2022-11-23 19:47:23 @GregDore2 Is that Bondi Beach?

2022-11-23 19:21:29 Unfortunately, yes. Controlled, careful statistics can illuminate. In contra, stringing together anecdotes can often be a tragically easy way to lie. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-23 19:18:15 RT @hackneylad: "He chose not to die as a symbol, not to give up his life for whatever cost the regime will bear for it. He chose to live,…

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-26 23:32:39 The person asking is the president of the university, Cao Guozheng. They didn’t back down. https://t.co/FEsIhGax1y

2022-11-26 23:25:35 Courage. https://t.co/dn2nk2Zdab

2022-11-26 23:18:57 RT @ThisIsWenhao: New protest method in China: holding a piece of white paper with nothing on it.

2022-11-26 18:52:37 Many photos/news of protests coming out of China in the last day, following a fire in Urumqui, Xinjiang where residents, including children, died reportedly as their building was sealed. Whatever else happens, a moment to appreciate the collective bravery of these young people. https://t.co/M6FQIVp3nH

2022-11-26 18:33:03 (It's a really difficult read, but as with such history books, puts many current dynamics in context).

2022-11-26 18:32:00 Today is Holodomor remembrance day, commemorating the millions of Ukrainians who died during Stalin's forced famine in otherwise rich agricultural lands. Snyder's Bloodlands, which covers the era and the region, tops my list of doomreading books as alternative to doomscrolling. https://t.co/YZr6cEavvu

2022-11-26 14:25:32 RT @OmidVEbrahimi: Is it OK to spend 12 months to get a visa to attend a 3-day conference? My piece in @ScienceMagazine sheds light on thi…

2022-11-26 14:03:31 @AngelidisAn @VirusesImmunity @PutrinoLab @resiapretorius @research_long @microbeminded2 @MBVanElzakker @Daltmann10

2022-11-25 22:02:55 RT @jljcolorado: @gabbystern @WHO @doctorsoumya If you are new to this #COVIDisAirborne topic and are perplexed, this thread explains the i…

2022-11-25 21:48:47 @gefeedly @tomgara Exactly. There is no choice, really.

2022-11-25 19:39:08 @tomgara https://t.co/SOvKwqIVui

2022-11-25 15:25:16 @BrianRWasik @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-25 10:24:16 @cjmaddison I can see your view of this, but I didn't see this as connected to Long Covid necessarily — instead, causal inference failures in science/study reporting are much broader, and this particular issue (EHR studies) is a perennial problem. I can try to pick other examples, though!

2022-11-24 23:11:08 @SirKneeland @SethTClarke Nutella? On a crust?

2022-11-24 23:10:56 @aaiqbal

2022-11-24 22:51:31 Rhubarb people at least made the chart! https://t.co/W6VjqbUGNa

2022-11-24 20:21:43 RT @at_tgibson: The EU has not been tough enough on #Egypt for too long. #COP27 and #FreeAlaa have brought the eyes of Europe to just how…

2022-11-24 20:13:51 @cjmaddison This isn’t necessarily about Long Covid though?

2022-11-24 18:40:36 RT @MarietjeSchaake: The institute does not disclose the source of its funding, but The New York Times obtained copies of the group’s annua…

2022-11-24 17:26:44 @Lujan588 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer We don’t test for it. It’s fairly common when one does, including 17% of people having two flu infections in a single year. https://t.co/higczdN6Hi

2022-11-24 15:45:53 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer That's why we need proper studies of all of this, and also why looking merely at abstracts of studies isn't enough. Have to understand what we're looking at? Suggestion, effect, proof, a clarion call to do a proper study, etc?

2022-11-24 15:44:42 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Could be: contributing, triggering *or* downstream of weaker immune system (Many such examples of results being overturned when switching from retrospective EHR to much better controlled studies, see HRT and cardiovascular events/mortality—reverse result from cohort was true).

2022-11-24 15:42:45 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Also, there's always "contributing", "accelarating" vs "but for" distinction. For example, Denmark study showed higher rates of Alzheimer and Parkinsons in elderly folks post-Covid (made headlines)—but also for post-influenza, at similarly elevated rates (largely ignored). +

2022-11-24 14:23:29 Refuting/checking essays that string together abstracts from cherry-picked studies that the author clearly didn’t understand or checked what happened later when scientists tried to drilled down to causal pathways? Little incentive for it on social media right now. So it goes.

2022-11-24 14:13:19 In fact, we already know some suggested effects were artifacts of higher diagnostic rates, not causal from an infection, because the predictions didn’t come true. Some other things are still unclear. You’d hardly know that from rando essays people RT without understanding.

2022-11-24 14:09:57 Some things could be higher risk following an infection. Others may be an artifact of getting a workup as part of being ill—not caused by it but discovered because of that. Some studies suggest effects but not what caused elevated diagnoses. That requires more, different work.

2022-11-24 14:04:52 For all prospective studies of electronic health records: people who interact with the health system are more likely to be diagnosed with conditions they *already had* compared to people who don’t. Noting this also doesn’t prove no effect. Careful scientists read studies &

2022-11-24 12:46:35 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO chief Scientist: "We were not forcefully saying: “This is an airborne virus.” I regret that we didn't do this much,…

2022-11-23 20:21:32 RT @walidgellad: I want to again highlight this really important point when you see an observational study of paxlovid efficacy using date…

2022-11-23 19:49:53 @GregDore2 Lovely!

2022-11-23 19:47:23 @GregDore2 Is that Bondi Beach?

2022-11-23 19:21:29 Unfortunately, yes. Controlled, careful statistics can illuminate. In contra, stringing together anecdotes can often be a tragically easy way to lie. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-23 19:18:15 RT @hackneylad: "He chose not to die as a symbol, not to give up his life for whatever cost the regime will bear for it. He chose to live,…

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-28 23:17:48 @antoniogm You haven’t discovered Yalom yet? This is the theory book. “He presents his four ultimate concerns of life—death, freedom, isolation, and meaninglessness—and discusses developmental changes” as Wikipedia summarizes. Has many novels and non-fiction as well. https://t.co/QVkdayoraE

2022-11-28 20:33:50 Not all left, but it is a very common form of racism—assuming other, usually non-white people who are protesting and risking so much have no agency and are merely super malleable, easy to manipulate tools of apparently omnipotent, competent westerners. That’s racism, both ways. https://t.co/5rIMHVuLoS

2022-11-28 02:00:43 RT @bokane: It wasn't as bad last night, but the first few dozen results for any city name I search are now escort spam

2022-11-28 00:35:10 @MartinKulldorff Also this discussion. It remained respectful. But I think it’s important. https://t.co/tvOA6bG1aB

2022-11-28 00:33:21 @MartinKulldorff Rest of thread. https://t.co/TEefe3rUJd

2022-11-27 23:37:28 @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-27 22:10:31 @subsix848 @ChristinaPushaw @DrJMarine @anish_koka Did the students end up with multi year prison sentences under very harsh conditions and their relatives rounded up and fired from jobs etc.? Seriously, perspective is useful if you want to criticize whatever you want about what happened here.

2022-11-27 22:08:23 @ChristinaPushaw @DrJMarine @anish_koka You can find a large number of threads etc. from me pointing out about the absurdity of such nonsense, going back to spring of 2020. That example is absurd, and wrong, still nowhere similar to broad, severe repression from China. Have some perspective and for what China is like.

2022-11-27 22:01:04 @wolfstrength @contrarian4data @anish_koka @DrJMarine January 22, 2020 and I’m calling for international cooperation. That sounds pretty good to me! China’s delay in informing the rest of the world was very costly.

2022-11-27 21:41:56 RT @CIA_in_China: While we’re focused on the fire in Xinjiang, it’s a chance to teach about the notorious Karamay fire in 1994 when hundred…

2022-11-27 21:39:49 RT @democracynow: Despite a global campaign to free Alaa Abd El-Fattah, the Egyptian activist remains in prison with little apparent moveme…

2022-11-27 17:11:14 @anish_koka @DrJMarine Come on. One, even in your thread, people aren’t calling for severe, broad multi year repression. Two, the word “lockdown” has come to mean whatever people criticizing it want it to mean. Three, random nephrologist says something isn’t proof of anything. Especially in early 2020.

2022-11-27 16:52:02 @DrJMarine @anish_koka Fauci would have preferred stricter policies (which didn’t happen, even under Biden) has no path to claiming Fauci preferred China-style massive, broad and severe repression. You can criticize Fauci without attempting that non-existent connection.

2022-11-27 16:26:13 @BenMazer Please! Let’s not forget hamsters which Honk Kong contact-traced! https://t.co/ZLVadKzCSI

2022-11-27 16:19:10 @DrJMarine @anish_koka An editorial by a single person that also went nowhere and called for, let's see, more tests and PPE in hospitals, and to do this if "virtually everyone is wiling" etc. You're proving my point? People had a range of views, and calling to "inspire" people and more tests is China?

2022-11-27 16:15:34 @Br1ckAnother1 @IoanaA_Cristea It's a great paper I'm proud to have co-written, and the conclusions would have allowed much smarter, targeted mitigations had it been accepted earlier, in my view. I don't clone policy views of my coauthors. I also co-authored with people with policy views in opposite direction.

2022-11-27 16:13:10 @DrJMarine @anish_koka @nytimes An op-ed that went nowhere. Plus, there were many opeds in exact opposite direction in the NYT. If one essay in the NYT changed the world, we'd be in a different place. It's truly disrespectful to the suffering in China to link whatever discussion you want about Western policies.

2022-11-27 16:11:07 @be335651783 People wanting to discuss the trade-offs and effectiveness of Western policies (in either direction) are obviously fine. (I've done both types of criticisms). It's the ridiculous equivalence to China's severe, broad multi-year authoritarian repression that I'm objecting to.

2022-11-27 16:06:09 @DrJMarine @anish_koka So you've an op-ed, from 2020, calling for measures that aren't comparable at all to what has been happening in China, and whose suggestions weren't implemented. Guess I can still distinguish a random op-ed from an authoritarian government's severe, broad multi-year repression.

2022-11-27 15:15:55 @cjmaddison I do understand where you're coming from. I'll try to pick methodological examples from other topics unless the substantive point is also crucial. The people being unacceptably ignored and/or left behind have an understandably different focus than some causal inference point.

2022-11-27 15:09:29 @JLeytonMange @DrJMarine I've criticized US response for being too lax/late as well as being performative strict even nonsensical since about the start, and I can tell the difference between others being critical of me or me thinking the government had it wrong and China-level repression. Not that hard.

2022-11-27 15:04:10 @BenMazer Also the key role of prolonged infections in immunocompromised people. And the fact that the rest of the world isn’t zero covid. And that any selection at a population level at a place with little prior immunity would then hit places with both vaccine and infection immunity.

2022-11-26 23:32:39 The person asking is the president of the university, Cao Guozheng. They didn’t back down. https://t.co/FEsIhGax1y

2022-11-26 23:25:35 Courage. https://t.co/dn2nk2Zdab

2022-11-26 23:18:57 RT @ThisIsWenhao: New protest method in China: holding a piece of white paper with nothing on it.

2022-11-26 18:52:37 Many photos/news of protests coming out of China in the last day, following a fire in Urumqui, Xinjiang where residents, including children, died reportedly as their building was sealed. Whatever else happens, a moment to appreciate the collective bravery of these young people. https://t.co/M6FQIVp3nH

2022-11-26 18:33:03 (It's a really difficult read, but as with such history books, puts many current dynamics in context).

2022-11-26 18:32:00 Today is Holodomor remembrance day, commemorating the millions of Ukrainians who died during Stalin's forced famine in otherwise rich agricultural lands. Snyder's Bloodlands, which covers the era and the region, tops my list of doomreading books as alternative to doomscrolling. https://t.co/YZr6cEavvu

2022-11-26 14:25:32 RT @OmidVEbrahimi: Is it OK to spend 12 months to get a visa to attend a 3-day conference? My piece in @ScienceMagazine sheds light on thi…

2022-11-26 14:03:31 @AngelidisAn @VirusesImmunity @PutrinoLab @resiapretorius @research_long @microbeminded2 @MBVanElzakker @Daltmann10

2022-11-25 22:02:55 RT @jljcolorado: @gabbystern @WHO @doctorsoumya If you are new to this #COVIDisAirborne topic and are perplexed, this thread explains the i…

2022-11-25 21:48:47 @gefeedly @tomgara Exactly. There is no choice, really.

2022-11-25 19:39:08 @tomgara https://t.co/SOvKwqIVui

2022-11-25 15:25:16 @BrianRWasik @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-25 10:24:16 @cjmaddison I can see your view of this, but I didn't see this as connected to Long Covid necessarily — instead, causal inference failures in science/study reporting are much broader, and this particular issue (EHR studies) is a perennial problem. I can try to pick other examples, though!

2022-11-24 23:11:08 @SirKneeland @SethTClarke Nutella? On a crust?

2022-11-24 23:10:56 @aaiqbal

2022-11-24 22:51:31 Rhubarb people at least made the chart! https://t.co/W6VjqbUGNa

2022-11-24 20:21:43 RT @at_tgibson: The EU has not been tough enough on #Egypt for too long. #COP27 and #FreeAlaa have brought the eyes of Europe to just how…

2022-11-24 20:13:51 @cjmaddison This isn’t necessarily about Long Covid though?

2022-11-24 18:40:36 RT @MarietjeSchaake: The institute does not disclose the source of its funding, but The New York Times obtained copies of the group’s annua…

2022-11-24 17:26:44 @Lujan588 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer We don’t test for it. It’s fairly common when one does, including 17% of people having two flu infections in a single year. https://t.co/higczdN6Hi

2022-11-24 15:45:53 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer That's why we need proper studies of all of this, and also why looking merely at abstracts of studies isn't enough. Have to understand what we're looking at? Suggestion, effect, proof, a clarion call to do a proper study, etc?

2022-11-24 15:44:42 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Could be: contributing, triggering *or* downstream of weaker immune system (Many such examples of results being overturned when switching from retrospective EHR to much better controlled studies, see HRT and cardiovascular events/mortality—reverse result from cohort was true).

2022-11-24 15:42:45 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Also, there's always "contributing", "accelarating" vs "but for" distinction. For example, Denmark study showed higher rates of Alzheimer and Parkinsons in elderly folks post-Covid (made headlines)—but also for post-influenza, at similarly elevated rates (largely ignored). +

2022-11-24 14:23:29 Refuting/checking essays that string together abstracts from cherry-picked studies that the author clearly didn’t understand or checked what happened later when scientists tried to drilled down to causal pathways? Little incentive for it on social media right now. So it goes.

2022-11-24 14:13:19 In fact, we already know some suggested effects were artifacts of higher diagnostic rates, not causal from an infection, because the predictions didn’t come true. Some other things are still unclear. You’d hardly know that from rando essays people RT without understanding.

2022-11-24 14:09:57 Some things could be higher risk following an infection. Others may be an artifact of getting a workup as part of being ill—not caused by it but discovered because of that. Some studies suggest effects but not what caused elevated diagnoses. That requires more, different work.

2022-11-24 14:04:52 For all prospective studies of electronic health records: people who interact with the health system are more likely to be diagnosed with conditions they *already had* compared to people who don’t. Noting this also doesn’t prove no effect. Careful scientists read studies &

2022-11-24 12:46:35 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO chief Scientist: "We were not forcefully saying: “This is an airborne virus.” I regret that we didn't do this much,…

2022-11-23 20:21:32 RT @walidgellad: I want to again highlight this really important point when you see an observational study of paxlovid efficacy using date…

2022-11-23 19:49:53 @GregDore2 Lovely!

2022-11-23 19:47:23 @GregDore2 Is that Bondi Beach?

2022-11-23 19:21:29 Unfortunately, yes. Controlled, careful statistics can illuminate. In contra, stringing together anecdotes can often be a tragically easy way to lie. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-23 19:18:15 RT @hackneylad: "He chose not to die as a symbol, not to give up his life for whatever cost the regime will bear for it. He chose to live,…

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-11-28 23:17:48 @antoniogm You haven’t discovered Yalom yet? This is the theory book. “He presents his four ultimate concerns of life—death, freedom, isolation, and meaninglessness—and discusses developmental changes” as Wikipedia summarizes. Has many novels and non-fiction as well. https://t.co/QVkdayoraE

2022-11-28 20:33:50 Not all left, but it is a very common form of racism—assuming other, usually non-white people who are protesting and risking so much have no agency and are merely super malleable, easy to manipulate tools of apparently omnipotent, competent westerners. That’s racism, both ways. https://t.co/5rIMHVuLoS

2022-11-28 02:00:43 RT @bokane: It wasn't as bad last night, but the first few dozen results for any city name I search are now escort spam

2022-11-28 00:35:10 @MartinKulldorff Also this discussion. It remained respectful. But I think it’s important. https://t.co/tvOA6bG1aB

2022-11-28 00:33:21 @MartinKulldorff Rest of thread. https://t.co/TEefe3rUJd

2022-11-27 23:37:28 @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-27 22:10:31 @subsix848 @ChristinaPushaw @DrJMarine @anish_koka Did the students end up with multi year prison sentences under very harsh conditions and their relatives rounded up and fired from jobs etc.? Seriously, perspective is useful if you want to criticize whatever you want about what happened here.

2022-11-27 22:08:23 @ChristinaPushaw @DrJMarine @anish_koka You can find a large number of threads etc. from me pointing out about the absurdity of such nonsense, going back to spring of 2020. That example is absurd, and wrong, still nowhere similar to broad, severe repression from China. Have some perspective and for what China is like.

2022-11-27 22:01:04 @wolfstrength @contrarian4data @anish_koka @DrJMarine January 22, 2020 and I’m calling for international cooperation. That sounds pretty good to me! China’s delay in informing the rest of the world was very costly.

2022-11-27 21:41:56 RT @CIA_in_China: While we’re focused on the fire in Xinjiang, it’s a chance to teach about the notorious Karamay fire in 1994 when hundred…

2022-11-27 21:39:49 RT @democracynow: Despite a global campaign to free Alaa Abd El-Fattah, the Egyptian activist remains in prison with little apparent moveme…

2022-11-27 17:11:14 @anish_koka @DrJMarine Come on. One, even in your thread, people aren’t calling for severe, broad multi year repression. Two, the word “lockdown” has come to mean whatever people criticizing it want it to mean. Three, random nephrologist says something isn’t proof of anything. Especially in early 2020.

2022-11-27 16:52:02 @DrJMarine @anish_koka Fauci would have preferred stricter policies (which didn’t happen, even under Biden) has no path to claiming Fauci preferred China-style massive, broad and severe repression. You can criticize Fauci without attempting that non-existent connection.

2022-11-27 16:26:13 @BenMazer Please! Let’s not forget hamsters which Honk Kong contact-traced! https://t.co/ZLVadKzCSI

2022-11-27 16:19:10 @DrJMarine @anish_koka An editorial by a single person that also went nowhere and called for, let's see, more tests and PPE in hospitals, and to do this if "virtually everyone is wiling" etc. You're proving my point? People had a range of views, and calling to "inspire" people and more tests is China?

2022-11-27 16:15:34 @Br1ckAnother1 @IoanaA_Cristea It's a great paper I'm proud to have co-written, and the conclusions would have allowed much smarter, targeted mitigations had it been accepted earlier, in my view. I don't clone policy views of my coauthors. I also co-authored with people with policy views in opposite direction.

2022-11-27 16:13:10 @DrJMarine @anish_koka @nytimes An op-ed that went nowhere. Plus, there were many opeds in exact opposite direction in the NYT. If one essay in the NYT changed the world, we'd be in a different place. It's truly disrespectful to the suffering in China to link whatever discussion you want about Western policies.

2022-11-27 16:11:07 @be335651783 People wanting to discuss the trade-offs and effectiveness of Western policies (in either direction) are obviously fine. (I've done both types of criticisms). It's the ridiculous equivalence to China's severe, broad multi-year authoritarian repression that I'm objecting to.

2022-11-27 16:06:09 @DrJMarine @anish_koka So you've an op-ed, from 2020, calling for measures that aren't comparable at all to what has been happening in China, and whose suggestions weren't implemented. Guess I can still distinguish a random op-ed from an authoritarian government's severe, broad multi-year repression.

2022-11-27 15:15:55 @cjmaddison I do understand where you're coming from. I'll try to pick methodological examples from other topics unless the substantive point is also crucial. The people being unacceptably ignored and/or left behind have an understandably different focus than some causal inference point.

2022-11-27 15:09:29 @JLeytonMange @DrJMarine I've criticized US response for being too lax/late as well as being performative strict even nonsensical since about the start, and I can tell the difference between others being critical of me or me thinking the government had it wrong and China-level repression. Not that hard.

2022-11-27 15:04:10 @BenMazer Also the key role of prolonged infections in immunocompromised people. And the fact that the rest of the world isn’t zero covid. And that any selection at a population level at a place with little prior immunity would then hit places with both vaccine and infection immunity.

2022-11-26 23:32:39 The person asking is the president of the university, Cao Guozheng. They didn’t back down. https://t.co/FEsIhGax1y

2022-11-26 23:25:35 Courage. https://t.co/dn2nk2Zdab

2022-11-26 23:18:57 RT @ThisIsWenhao: New protest method in China: holding a piece of white paper with nothing on it.

2022-11-26 18:52:37 Many photos/news of protests coming out of China in the last day, following a fire in Urumqui, Xinjiang where residents, including children, died reportedly as their building was sealed. Whatever else happens, a moment to appreciate the collective bravery of these young people. https://t.co/M6FQIVp3nH

2022-11-26 18:33:03 (It's a really difficult read, but as with such history books, puts many current dynamics in context).

2022-11-26 18:32:00 Today is Holodomor remembrance day, commemorating the millions of Ukrainians who died during Stalin's forced famine in otherwise rich agricultural lands. Snyder's Bloodlands, which covers the era and the region, tops my list of doomreading books as alternative to doomscrolling. https://t.co/YZr6cEavvu

2022-11-26 14:25:32 RT @OmidVEbrahimi: Is it OK to spend 12 months to get a visa to attend a 3-day conference? My piece in @ScienceMagazine sheds light on thi…

2022-11-26 14:03:31 @AngelidisAn @VirusesImmunity @PutrinoLab @resiapretorius @research_long @microbeminded2 @MBVanElzakker @Daltmann10

2022-11-25 22:02:55 RT @jljcolorado: @gabbystern @WHO @doctorsoumya If you are new to this #COVIDisAirborne topic and are perplexed, this thread explains the i…

2022-11-25 21:48:47 @gefeedly @tomgara Exactly. There is no choice, really.

2022-11-25 19:39:08 @tomgara https://t.co/SOvKwqIVui

2022-11-25 15:25:16 @BrianRWasik @wanderer_jasnah

2022-11-25 10:24:16 @cjmaddison I can see your view of this, but I didn't see this as connected to Long Covid necessarily — instead, causal inference failures in science/study reporting are much broader, and this particular issue (EHR studies) is a perennial problem. I can try to pick other examples, though!

2022-11-24 23:11:08 @SirKneeland @SethTClarke Nutella? On a crust?

2022-11-24 23:10:56 @aaiqbal

2022-11-24 22:51:31 Rhubarb people at least made the chart! https://t.co/W6VjqbUGNa

2022-11-24 20:21:43 RT @at_tgibson: The EU has not been tough enough on #Egypt for too long. #COP27 and #FreeAlaa have brought the eyes of Europe to just how…

2022-11-24 20:13:51 @cjmaddison This isn’t necessarily about Long Covid though?

2022-11-24 18:40:36 RT @MarietjeSchaake: The institute does not disclose the source of its funding, but The New York Times obtained copies of the group’s annua…

2022-11-24 17:26:44 @Lujan588 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer We don’t test for it. It’s fairly common when one does, including 17% of people having two flu infections in a single year. https://t.co/higczdN6Hi

2022-11-24 15:45:53 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer That's why we need proper studies of all of this, and also why looking merely at abstracts of studies isn't enough. Have to understand what we're looking at? Suggestion, effect, proof, a clarion call to do a proper study, etc?

2022-11-24 15:44:42 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Could be: contributing, triggering *or* downstream of weaker immune system (Many such examples of results being overturned when switching from retrospective EHR to much better controlled studies, see HRT and cardiovascular events/mortality—reverse result from cohort was true).

2022-11-24 15:42:45 @vijayiyer312 @BenMazer Also, there's always "contributing", "accelarating" vs "but for" distinction. For example, Denmark study showed higher rates of Alzheimer and Parkinsons in elderly folks post-Covid (made headlines)—but also for post-influenza, at similarly elevated rates (largely ignored). +

2022-11-24 14:23:29 Refuting/checking essays that string together abstracts from cherry-picked studies that the author clearly didn’t understand or checked what happened later when scientists tried to drilled down to causal pathways? Little incentive for it on social media right now. So it goes.

2022-11-24 14:13:19 In fact, we already know some suggested effects were artifacts of higher diagnostic rates, not causal from an infection, because the predictions didn’t come true. Some other things are still unclear. You’d hardly know that from rando essays people RT without understanding.

2022-11-24 14:09:57 Some things could be higher risk following an infection. Others may be an artifact of getting a workup as part of being ill—not caused by it but discovered because of that. Some studies suggest effects but not what caused elevated diagnoses. That requires more, different work.

2022-11-24 14:04:52 For all prospective studies of electronic health records: people who interact with the health system are more likely to be diagnosed with conditions they *already had* compared to people who don’t. Noting this also doesn’t prove no effect. Careful scientists read studies &

2022-11-24 12:46:35 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO chief Scientist: "We were not forcefully saying: “This is an airborne virus.” I regret that we didn't do this much,…

2022-11-23 20:21:32 RT @walidgellad: I want to again highlight this really important point when you see an observational study of paxlovid efficacy using date…

2022-11-23 19:49:53 @GregDore2 Lovely!

2022-11-23 19:47:23 @GregDore2 Is that Bondi Beach?

2022-11-23 19:21:29 Unfortunately, yes. Controlled, careful statistics can illuminate. In contra, stringing together anecdotes can often be a tragically easy way to lie. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-23 19:18:15 RT @hackneylad: "He chose not to die as a symbol, not to give up his life for whatever cost the regime will bear for it. He chose to live,…

2022-11-22 17:43:47 @smithsj See here, as well. (Obviously, more empirical research into the Long X sequelae is necessary and may help a lot of people including Long Covid as well a a whole host of other ailments such as ME/CFS, and some research suggests Alzheimer and Parkinson’s may turn out like MS did.) https://t.co/9anHsEf3JJ

2022-11-22 17:39:52 @smithsj Also I didn’t say it! I wish! It was a great essay written by an expert about acute severity and fact-checked by multiple immunologists. It has been amply shown. Iwasaki *separately* told me it could also explain why pandemics (novel viruses) produce more “Long” viral sequelae.

2022-11-22 17:28:49 So much potential upside to recognition of airborne transmission for other respiratory illnesses, as well as potential longer-term sequelae from other viruses including influenza and especially Epstein-Barr Virus.

2022-11-22 17:23:47 “Marr said she and her colleagues don’t have a clear answer as to which mode of transmission is dominant, but her work has shown that the flu, like Covid, can also spread via aerosols.”

2022-11-22 17:22:05 “Covid is definitely not alone in having these long-term consequences, even after a mild infection,” Iwasaki said. “According to Iwasaki, seasonal flu is less likely to cause lasting symptoms than pandemic flu strains like the 2009 H1N1 virus.” Post-viral syndromes are broader. https://t.co/wMjUwBGMOB

2022-11-22 16:20:55 RT @NathanGrubaugh: We are hiring an Associate Research Scientist (or postdoc with relevant experience) with a background in pathogen gen…

2022-11-22 15:34:46 RT @mlipsitch: The Public Health Analytics and Modeling Fellowship at @CDCgov https://t.co/tUxLffil90 is a great opportunity for postdocs t…

2022-11-22 15:22:10 @scree177

2022-11-22 14:10:13 @JohnSkylar I’m sorry for your loss. And yes, it happens, tragically though rarely.

2022-11-22 12:52:25 @DeryaTR_ !

2022-11-22 10:25:53 https://t.co/MeaCcv3DS7

2022-11-22 02:51:47 I’m sorry. Yeah, that’s terrible, too, on top of the grief and the loss. Yes, turning people’s individual tragedies into political fodder via anecdotal “proof” isn’t okay like that either. https://t.co/uljxKdzQ5b

2022-11-22 02:33:53 @mzbitca Indeed. Tragic.

2022-11-22 02:30:50 @TrumplsCancer @PhilMiller2911 Yeah and during a pandemic, even non-star athlete deaths make become news.

2022-11-22 02:28:20 @juanrive @PhilMiller2911 Yeah happens unfortunately. Rare but real, precedes the pandemic.

2022-11-22 02:26:30 Yes, this has sadly been happening long before the pandemic. Young athletes collapsing or tragically dying is rare, but not unheard of at all. Anectodes are often available to fit preconceived ideas, doesn’t make it true. https://t.co/Ym3TL2eWnY

2022-11-22 02:23:15 Many tragic things happen, if rarely. Young people die unexpectedly. Athletes collapse. Especially during a pandemic, more such stories become news. None of that alone implicates vaccines. Statistics with careful controls are how it would be figured out—anecdote lists aren’t it.

2022-11-22 02:18:33 New anti-vaxxer movie “Died Suddenly” lists people who died or collapsed young/unexpectedly, alleging it’s the vaccine. Classic lying method. Young people do die or collapse, rarely but tragically, and just collating anecdotes or news stories preys on gullibility to push a lie. https://t.co/AImXFPBccT

2022-11-22 01:14:49 RT @UmarFarooq_: NSO, the Israeli company behind the Pegasus spyware, was trying to claim sovereign immunity because it worked on behalf of…

2022-11-21 23:30:56 @RiverdaleBoy @roxannedarling @ariehkovler It does.

2022-11-21 23:07:18 RT @PutrinoLab: Incredible to see this launching in Beta!

2022-11-21 22:40:56 @roxannedarling I would’ve happily paid for more functionality around lists. Also, bookmarks—I have them but you can’t search them.

2022-11-21 22:30:34 Anyway, this just about captures the rest of the sentiment, I think. https://t.co/wojGS1Eclf

2022-11-21 22:25:47 I don't know why shipping new analytics/search etc. wasn't monetized as a move away from advertisers—some make money from this platform, but the analytics are terrible. Add a way to authenticate, sure. The bluecheck wars feel like generals fighting the old war, but whatever.

2022-11-21 22:13:58 @ProfLHunter Wait does it mean "hey buddy" — like what you'd call your friend in the argument, or the bus driver when asking directions, or telling the waiter to hold the ketchup, as well as what you'd call the professor professor? That's what hocam is in Turkish nowadays.

2022-11-21 22:12:03 Anyway, I saw Musk is claiming that they will demote/deboost hate speech, rather than ban it. That requires.. rules about hate speech. Who decides? Moderators then identifying it *at scale*. That's always been the problem. New problem, same as the old problem, apparently.

2022-11-21 22:08:38 Yep, lists are great. If Twitter could *ship* some product around that, it would likely be a good addition. https://t.co/xihi7unMWD

2022-11-21 22:05:40 "hocam" It WORKED. I'm pretty fond of the updated usage, tbh. https://t.co/nL0NKSYDAM

2022-11-21 22:04:23 Sure, one can democratize the blue check and make it available for pay (though remains to be seen if without authentication?), but it can't *also* carry on the previous signification. "The bluechecks" had a *the* (as a for or against) for a reason. This makes it *a* bluecheck.

2022-11-21 22:00:22 During the tumultuous 1968 period in Turkey, some rebellious students started addressing *everyone* as "hocam"—means "my professor/teacher". (The professors were to be called that.) "Hocam": Friends, teachers, janitors... It caught on. These days, "hocam" means "my dude(tte)."

2022-11-21 21:55:52 Good to open up authentication (why did one have to be "notable" for that?). Good to mark official accounts—loved the insulin stunt, but don't want fake country sending nuclear tweets. But the "notable" signifier may end, so one reason people are purchasing it for won't matter.

2022-11-21 14:05:20 RT @practicingpod: Worth reading the whole . The "corner of twitter" @zeynep refers to is obvious to those who know it and the source of m…

2022-11-21 14:04:30 And this is why I respond. A small crew has been lying nonstop about me—and also science and research, for so long. I ignore 99% of it. The same crew harasses scientists who object to them. They have destroyed so much credibility of people—some scientists even—they fooled, too. https://t.co/onWP8XYWwL

2022-11-21 14:01:00 @Paul_Melman Yep. These people have been tweeting lies about me for more than a year. I ignore it 99% of the time. They keep at it, nonstop. I respond, than it’s “why is she engaging”? They lie about so many other things, too. Very harmful. So 1% of the time, I point to their awful methods.

2022-11-21 13:25:13 RT @RichardfromSyd1: This is an interesting thread I am reflecting on. The problem of knowing what is valid vs what is taken out of context…

2022-11-21 12:45:11 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada *feat! I can’t even spell, despite controlling the entire field of immunology!

2022-11-21 12:38:25 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Genuinely amused by my hypothetical powers to control an entire advanced, actual field that I am not part of. When I figure out how I actually pull this amazing feet, I’m going to apply it to other fields, too! Next up, particle physics.

2022-11-21 12:36:35 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada “Papers I didn’t write that have nothing to do with claims I’ve made that people in the field can read correctly proves my nonsensical claims. Why don’t immunologists cite my Covid claims or papers? The omnipotent sociologist somehow controls the entire field of immunology.”

2022-11-21 12:32:12 Adding examples. This is how a lot of Twitter viral nonsense works a lot of the time. Antivaxxers also use this method widely. https://t.co/abORZ27sLg

2022-11-21 12:29:03 @Marc_Veld @Dave99117584 @andrew_croxford @Anto_Berto @origincanada Also 2021 paper, not 2022. (Method: find old study from *someone else* usually something specific—say, severe cases—or subtle that doesn’t apply broadly or was followed up with different results, misrepresent it, claim it vindicates nonsensical other claims, go Twitter viral).

2022-11-21 11:17:15 RT @Monasosh: A riot squad carried him away before he fought back and was returned to his cell. "When they put him in the cell he started t…

2022-11-20 21:45:53 @those_this @andrew_croxford And few followup with any of this l. Remember the super-viral“forever plague” article? I guess you could say it didn’t have typos. Most everything else was.. utterly unfounded to loony. And yet, they’re still on the same beat. It works for RTs.

2022-11-20 21:36:56 RT @j_g_allen: New proposed ventilation rates for covid and other airborne respiratory infectious diseases from The Lancet @Commissioncovid.

2022-11-20 20:32:45 RT @NaomiAKlein: This is exactly right. @RishiSunak, appropriate to our age, *performed* diplomacy but did not actually engage in it. Tha…

2022-11-20 19:49:15 @daisy_court75 @r_prior @meghanor @brianvastag

2022-11-20 15:59:15 RT @MiddleEastEye: The family of imprisoned Egyptian activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah said they were allowed to see him on Thursday and that his…

2022-11-20 15:58:54 RT @CarolineLucas: So incredibly sad &

2022-11-20 14:32:16 RT @shirinfdehghan: Iranian women basketball team together with their coaches have all taken their hijab’s off and took what seems like a n…

2022-11-19 16:12:03 @vijayiyer312 @peterstaley @NIHDirector Exactly

2022-11-19 09:34:38 RT @AmnestyUK: Hey @RishiSunak Last week we urged you to bring Alaa home from unjust imprisonment in Egypt during #COP27 You didn’t. Ins…

2022-11-19 02:13:02 @CortJohnson Great overview, thanks.

2022-11-19 01:59:07 RT @PepperMarion: As promised! @UW_Immunology is excited to announce two open faculty job postings! We are hiring up to TWO Assistant Profe…

2022-11-18 21:43:46 Climate justice was never going to stand in isolation from the world. https://t.co/w9FKGNGK0J

2022-11-18 21:39:51 RT @TarletonG: Very much agree with @zeynep here: "The idea that advertisers alone will save us from hate speech and the further degradatio…

2022-11-18 17:47:16 @mitchpberg

2022-11-18 17:47:02 @ugurZp @nickgenes I look forward to the next opportunity!

2022-11-18 17:46:05 RT @peterstaley: So, before this site crashes, please use my DMs to suggest candidates to fill Tony Fauci’s shoes as NIAID Director. I’m on…

2022-11-18 17:31:11 @nickgenes @ugurZp Grateful for the opportunity to have retweeted it.

2022-11-18 17:14:11 RT @ugurZp: I don’t know about mastodon. My alternative platform for academics would be named Thriller where we can continue to be thrilled…

2022-11-18 16:40:52 RT @AbraarKaran: Recruiting participants for this study of #LongCovid &

2022-11-18 16:00:13 RT @fredbenenson: @mwseibel @ezraklein interviewed @zeynep about this 4 years ago and it’s a must listen - our brains are hard wired for hi…

2022-11-18 15:30:56 RT @EthanZ: Facebook just reminded me that it's @alaa's birthday. He remains imprisoned in Egypt, his hunger strike apparently broken, perh…

2022-11-18 15:08:35 Automating turning (downloaded) JSON into Substack (or any editor) friendly text would likely help many people. (Maybe already exists?). https://t.co/XzRKWmUEyp

2022-11-18 13:26:12 Alaa Abdel Fattah turned 41 today, in a prison cell. He almost died this week, and may not survive long given the cruel, murderous conditions of his imprisonment for most of the past decade. Moving #Cop27 recognition of the plight of the political prisoners. World leaders shrug. https://t.co/LKY7Ktf9du

2022-11-18 12:55:48 @mitchpberg Thank you. I tried, honestly.

2022-11-18 12:54:08 While parts of the world struggle with RSV and flu (always especially dangerous to infants and the elderly!), XBB update. Cases in Singapore continue to plummet. See France for BQ.1.1. More than two years in, nAbs labs do not reflect population immunity and are not predictive. https://t.co/faHW4TqkEj

2022-11-18 12:46:16 UK Monkeypox cases detected are down to 6 for all of last week. US is in low teens, daily. US/UK/EU potentially headed to zero, except for the new introductions. Imagine if we did the right thing, and made sure people in endemic countries were vaccinated as well. https://t.co/ign6CiuQMu

2022-11-18 12:31:04 For journalists/dissidents: This is why one should not post screenshots or PDFs from sources/whistleblowers, or send original documents back to wherever they came from to ask for comment/confirmation. Type it up and/or paraphrase. (See also the Reality Winner case). https://t.co/MwTPTumtGx

2022-11-18 11:34:23 @MBRodamilans @Andres4NY

2022-11-18 03:32:34 @EvolvedTech Yikes

2022-11-18 03:31:34 @AkiPeritz Boo

2022-11-18 03:18:01 “Tiktok and Tactical Nukes” Okay, let’s not. https://t.co/wIIUg0ZiB3

2022-11-17 23:16:05 RT @ElizabethHaighx: Very worrying update from @FreedomForAlaa today as family reveals his health has 'severely deteriorated' after seven m…

2022-11-17 23:15:36 RT @nariology: This is so painful &

2022-11-17 22:53:38 @billwasik

2022-11-17 21:10:04 RT @sharifkouddous: Chants of “Free Alaa, free them all” close out the COP27 People’s Plenary #FreeAlaa #Wish4Alaa https://t.co/70yqoEVNHm

2022-11-17 20:08:17 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I ignore them 99% of the time (they tweet about me pretty much every day, often multiple times, will soon be two years) but I highlighted the doctored tweet because now their lies are targeting Long Covid patients. Despicable, frankly. I just wanted to show an example. But onward

2022-11-17 20:05:38 @3dPartyInternet @mocoband @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. But it's a campaign of lies against me, more than a year, nonstop. Doctored tweets, blatant lying that a first-grader could see through. They don't care about the patients

2022-11-17 19:49:38 RT @paulmasonnews: This is an account of the cruel and inhuman treatment of a British citizen. Not that it should matter - because this is…

2022-11-17 19:49:29 RT @ORHamilton: Like so many of you, I had allowed myself to feel some optimism. But while Sisi and Shoukry were giving world leaders and…

2022-11-17 19:44:21 Adding this here since I broke the thread. This is gut wrenching. https://t.co/DdWE5qEioV

2022-11-17 19:42:01 Horrifying. @RishiSunak and @JoeBiden can, and should, end this torture with murderous intent. They have the leverage. If they don’t, even if Alaa Abdel Fattah doesn’t die during #COP27, he will have been killed during it. This British citizen needs to be on a plane to the UK. https://t.co/mGiHhHYJlS

2022-11-17 19:17:21 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @mocoband @calirunnerdoc They’re so far gone that it’s impossible. Also both my NYT pieces mention or profile how healthy people became ill, and you can find so many tweets from me explaining it, and nowhere do I ever say healthy people can’t get Long Covid. But they’ll never stop, it seems.

2022-11-17 19:09:11 This was great fun, thanks to my fellow panelists and the @ObamaFoundation for the invitation. (Thanks to the audience for their support even when I was critical of, ahem, previous administrations. ) https://t.co/TzLZUCpQs9

2022-11-17 19:06:31 https://t.co/oS1A5tFuml

2022-11-17 17:47:04 RT @ObamaFoundation: https://t.co/HaUvH8zToT

2022-11-17 17:25:15 RT @hackneylad: At #COP27 in #Egypt, I watched @sana2 risk everything to save her brother's life - and show the world that climate justice…

2022-11-17 17:14:44 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc I was ignoring them, as I’ve done for years while they go on and on and on about me, but enough with lying to Long Covid patients. That’s a line that, when crossed, deserves a response. Harming patients in their obsession about me is unacceptable.

2022-11-17 17:13:19 @3dPartyInternet @APazyryk @calirunnerdoc Thanks. I published two full page pieces in the New York Times explaining how many previously healthy people got Long Covid. Not exactly obscure. It’s been a multiyear nonstop campaign of lies about me, rando trolls but also, sadly, a few people who should know better join. Nuts.

2022-11-17 16:02:34 The cruelty never ends. The family members haven’t been able to touch or hug Alaa Abdel Fattah for years. https://t.co/SSuewIt5XP

2022-11-17 16:00:49 @jljcolorado @ClarivateAG @JgrpBoulder @CIRESnews @CUBoulderCHEM @CUBoulder Congratulations!

2022-11-17 15:20:30 What a tragedy, the whole thing. https://t.co/IpbKW2j7OL

2022-11-17 03:22:00 RT @victorsojo: I saw this tweet and thought surely it’s related to accounts Alex had interacted with too. Nope. This is quite the gang! #a…

2022-11-17 01:02:40 The classic playbook of many industries. https://t.co/lKOOKJ7RXL

2022-11-17 00:35:57 https://t.co/fqB8MmeO8r

2022-11-17 00:34:45 @notdred Keep them off Twitter.

2022-11-16 23:35:58 @excellent__s Well, thanks but… I will keep writing and (stay tuned) I may be getting involved soon on the research side

2022-11-16 23:14:23 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today @TheTimes was very clear on the increasing seriousness of Alaa's case for British citizens everywhere, &

2022-11-16 23:13:17 RT @khalidabdalla: Exactly right from @JohnCassonUK. The longer this goes on the more serious it must become. Rights &

2022-11-16 22:15:07 @GidMK See Michael’s chart here, and rest of the thread. The study does not compare first and subsequent infections at all. https://t.co/MLigTTihJD

2022-11-16 21:39:30 @JamesStein18 Yeah

2022-11-16 19:42:09 @AlexGaggio @origincanada @calirunnerdoc Yeah, look at this thread breaking down the temporal pattern in the ONS data, and that heartbreaking red line of the more than 12 months folks. Really, really terrible. (You can see the more transient sequelae as well.) https://t.co/GpY0JAfs6z

2022-11-16 19:37:59 @calirunnerdoc It's become distracting, imo, to try to discuss granularity and stas on Twitter, but happy to have a lengthier conversation. Statistics/surveys is one of my core academic specialties, but Twitter isn't great. But none of that convo takes away from the reality of the illness.

2022-11-16 19:36:00 @calirunnerdoc On the other subsets, I think the ONS is the best long-term data we have, even without a control group and latest method change, but there are new studies with control groups. And I think the reduction of the risk is visible, but the data is far from the granularity we'd want.

2022-11-16 19:32:41 @calirunnerdoc So that discussion is very hard on Twitter, and gets misinterpreted, especially since there are subsets. On the "from severity" version, which dominates the stats, there's a clear reduction since severity is reduced (this is post-ICU, post-hospitalization syndromes).

2022-11-16 19:28:48 For sociological fun, search Twitter for mentions of the Nature study on immunological dysfunction that professor Dore is a co-author on and note how it's represented to ordinary people. Then see what he actually says about it: "Exhausted by misrepresentation" is how he put it.

2022-11-16 19:15:13 By the way, please note professor Greg Dore is the coauthor of that Nature study on immunological dysfunction that, he says in another thread, is also being misrepresented. https://t.co/Oe5Gjrp8FO

2022-11-16 18:19:15 @alexandrosM Correct, multi-decade longitudinal study found multiple sclerosis follows, decades later, from EBV. HPV to cancer, similar. Yeay vaccines. See: https://t.co/bnnldDdihd and https://t.co/xQ3eliB6lc You've literally turned into this, I can't argue with that. https://t.co/zKqfNLBAvH

2022-11-16 18:13:38 @localnotable See this thread. I read the full study. The Reuters headline is absolutely wrong. The study does not measure severity of reinfections compared to first ones at all. It's better not to get informed via Twitter or media, unfortunately. https://t.co/dO9PKZOdSy

2022-11-16 17:54:29 @localnotable That headline is hundred percent wrong. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t inject falsehoods into this. Yes, media gets many things wrong. It sucks.

2022-11-16 17:33:53 @alexandrosM Post-viral sequelae, documented throughout history, especially after pandemics are a different matter. I'm sure you were as excited as I was by the recent paper in Science showing multiple sclerosis follows, decades after, an EBV infection. Can't wait for the soon EBV vaccine!

2022-11-16 17:32:35 @alexandrosM No, different! The reason all the immunologists I know have eagerly, and enthusiastically, vaccinated their children is that they understand that primary infections can be higher risk for the youngest, and training the immune system via vaccines is the safest route. Same as this: https://t.co/8jAm3owcgf

2022-11-16 00:34:59 @jgprogress @mykola @andrew_croxford Why are you lying about me? I wrote multiple pieces in the NYT explaining how healthy, active people got ill. See thread below for links. This multiyear campaign of lies is not acceptable. Why do you hate the patients who need help and research? https://t.co/fNS2OiXs9g

2022-11-15 23:32:17 @mykola You're telling me that me quoting Long Covid book co-author immunologist Danny Altmann—with the entire transcript so that it's not misunderstood—is somehow a problem for LC patients, because..? Yeah, I'll leave it here, too. It's a problem you have with Altmann. I can't fix that.

2022-11-15 23:26:56 @mykola And perhaps you should consider what it means that Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid Handbook *and* another immunologist from the very pro-mitigation Indie Sage *both* saying something straightforward is somehow seen by you as... an attack on Long Covid patients? Why?

2022-11-15 23:20:16 @mykola I put the entire transcript, too. He is saying exactly what he said.

2022-11-15 23:18:01 @mykola Long Covid is real, important, people are suffering and there is (still too little) but real research into the immunopathology. Altmann making straightforward scientific statement should not be seen as being insensitive.

2022-11-15 23:16:30 @mykola Once again, maybe reconsider what it means when even Indie Sage immunologist Altmann causes a problems for you, apparently, by making straightforward statements? It’s not being “sensitive” to let scientific terms become cudgels in Twitter wars. Altmann is a researcher. https://t.co/IkjSSMm6EP

2022-11-15 23:07:07 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe that should be an indicator for you? They are very concerned about the patients, but clearly also keeping the science, correct.

2022-11-15 23:06:01 @mykola @andrew_croxford *That* immunologist is Danny Altmann, co-author of the Long Covid handbook, that Akiko wrote foreword for, part of very pro-mitigation Indie Sage. Watch the video, the second immunologist in the same group says the same thing. They’re referring to the incorrect, broad claims.

2022-11-15 22:58:29 @mykola @andrew_croxford Oh come on. Nobody is saying T cell exhaustion is pseudoscience. The person top of the thread is an immunologist! There are people making bizarre, Twitter-only claims. Antivaxxers use similar techniques. Real terminology, baseless assertion. That’s different. That’s all.

2022-11-15 22:55:50 @mykola @andrew_croxford 1-The current crude surveys includes too many subsets of post-viral sequelae lumped together. That’s not a secret. 2- I cite the UK ONS in my piece. Best we have despite lacking control group. 3- This is obviously false.

2022-11-15 22:41:40 @mykola @andrew_croxford What part?

2022-11-15 22:30:35 @healthyrespect1 @mkhalili @andrew_croxford I’ve written some of the earliest &

2022-11-15 22:27:19 @mykola @andrew_croxford You’re being lied to. There isn’t a single place I say or imply Long Covid patients are to be discarded, and in fact every single word has been the opposite. The people who lie about me also lie about the research and also don’t care about the patients.

2022-11-15 22:24:22 @mykola @andrew_croxford Maybe I should have written a lengthy NYT article about the history of post-viral illness after pandemics. You know the latest is because of their new lie? I said LC and ME patients are at *higher risk* from reinfections and they screenshotted and presented as “she doesn’t care”. https://t.co/B7fv2ynnLC

2022-11-15 21:29:43 @Naughty__Rabbit Or, stop being misled the seemingly unemployed guy (no research affiliation!) whose Covid papers remain uncited (sort Google Scholar by date!), but who tweets about me nonstop for years? (Fan of Dr. Iwasaki, I talk to her and quote her in my NYT pieces). https://t.co/LtgaElztsw

2022-11-15 20:53:16 @BenMazer Wait screenshots of abstracts of studies from a complex field and typing “I was right” repeatedly into the bird app input box isn’t enough?

2022-12-07 17:26:47 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today is Alaa's son, Khaled's 11th Birthday. Alaa wasn't allowed to attend Khaled's birth because he was in prison. Sin…

2022-12-07 17:26:31 RT @Monasosh: If you are in London, write @alaa a card with a personal wish and join me next Monday to remind @JamesCleverly as he prepare…

2022-12-07 16:05:13 Anyway, the people in China are the victims here: from draconian repression disguised as Covid control to a tanking economy to profound human suffering over years—that they bravely protested—but now being thrust into more suffering because of authoritarian, callous incompetence.

2022-12-07 16:02:51 Hong Kong went through this earlier, an incompetent forced opening without being fully prepared. It was carnage. They quickly had some of the highest death rates in the world. China is a vast country: the potential suffering (that they will likely censor from the stats) is huge.

2022-12-07 15:59:34 China's vaccines aren't terrible

2022-12-07 15:54:18 @estro_femme Yeah, I'm sorry.

2022-12-07 15:53:34 Compare with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Japan had hardly any mandatory restrictions. S Korea traced huge early outbreaks back to zero. Way fewer deaths than US. Taiwan had of a strict but early Zero Covid strategy: opened schools in FEBRUARY of 2020. https://t.co/0gnJzYF6ns

2022-12-07 15:49:25 Some want to use China (dishonestly) for their Twitter outrage wars —by pretending China's repression resembled anything Western countries experienced—but look beyond that. Not only did people in China already suffer greatly, the easing without proper preparation will add to it.

2022-12-07 15:46:10 "For many, the expansive and often seemingly arbitrary pandemic measures became the clearest example of the excesses of Mr. Xi’s authoritarian tendencies". Also incompetence. They're easing rules due to pressure, after having tanked the economy, but without being fully prepared. https://t.co/yGaCoRJYDT

2022-12-07 15:41:47 RT @nytimes: The global auto industry still has extensive links to the Xinjiang region of China, a new report says, despite a U.S. law inte…

2022-12-07 14:27:35 RT @devisridhar: Dec 7: After several months of battling an Ebola outbreak with a strong public health response by the Ministry of Health,…

2022-12-07 23:09:33 @ritholtz

2022-12-07 17:26:47 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today is Alaa's son, Khaled's 11th Birthday. Alaa wasn't allowed to attend Khaled's birth because he was in prison. Sin…

2022-12-07 17:26:31 RT @Monasosh: If you are in London, write @alaa a card with a personal wish and join me next Monday to remind @JamesCleverly as he prepare…

2022-12-07 16:05:13 Anyway, the people in China are the victims here: from draconian repression disguised as Covid control to a tanking economy to profound human suffering over years—that they bravely protested—but now being thrust into more suffering because of authoritarian, callous incompetence.

2022-12-07 16:02:51 Hong Kong went through this earlier, an incompetent forced opening without being fully prepared. It was carnage. They quickly had some of the highest death rates in the world. China is a vast country: the potential suffering (that they will likely censor from the stats) is huge.

2022-12-07 15:59:34 China's vaccines aren't terrible

2022-12-07 15:54:18 @estro_femme Yeah, I'm sorry.

2022-12-07 15:53:34 Compare with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Japan had hardly any mandatory restrictions. S Korea traced huge early outbreaks back to zero. Way fewer deaths than US. Taiwan had of a strict but early Zero Covid strategy: opened schools in FEBRUARY of 2020. https://t.co/0gnJzYF6ns

2022-12-07 15:49:25 Some want to use China (dishonestly) for their Twitter outrage wars —by pretending China's repression resembled anything Western countries experienced—but look beyond that. Not only did people in China already suffer greatly, the easing without proper preparation will add to it.

2022-12-07 15:46:10 "For many, the expansive and often seemingly arbitrary pandemic measures became the clearest example of the excesses of Mr. Xi’s authoritarian tendencies". Also incompetence. They're easing rules due to pressure, after having tanked the economy, but without being fully prepared. https://t.co/yGaCoRJYDT

2022-12-07 15:41:47 RT @nytimes: The global auto industry still has extensive links to the Xinjiang region of China, a new report says, despite a U.S. law inte…

2022-12-07 14:27:35 RT @devisridhar: Dec 7: After several months of battling an Ebola outbreak with a strong public health response by the Ministry of Health,…

2022-12-08 22:26:19 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It's the "but for" bit. Many clearly have an illness not explainable by stress alone, wouldn't be this ill *but for* a post-viral syndrome, which clearly existed throughout history and that medicine, in denial, kept attributing to "psychosocial factors"— like they did to ulcers.

2022-12-08 22:08:46 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I could definitely do that as well, and so many have written about it—as have I. It just keeps happening. I understand her argument and I’m sympathetic to it *when it applies*. Just baffled by this ongoing effort to implausibly stuff something that really doesn’t fit into it.

2022-12-08 22:00:59 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Then don’t lump postviral syndromes into your argument. Stick to Havana syndrome or similar examples. Stop interviewing the gaslighting establishment. If you have spoken with that many suffering from post-viral syndromes, then your interpretation is weak. It *simply* doesn’t fit.

2022-12-08 21:45:45 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your arguments don’t apply here. Please pick relevant examples. You don’t want to be like the people who long resisted the clear evidence of bacterial roots of peptic ulcers, furthering much suffering. This is a version if that. Not everything that exists applies to everything.

2022-12-08 21:43:54 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I get your argument and sympathetic to it.. when it applies. Speak to 100s of very healthy, active folks who come down with virus and suddenly can’t walk to the bathroom, dig up centuries of examples and talk to immunologists—who never got funds to research deeper. Doesn’t apply.

2022-12-08 21:40:29 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias You’re ignoring much science and the experience &

2022-12-08 21:35:22 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your article is behind on the science and the epidemiology and the experience of so many, which means something regardless of your dismissal. I sincerely recommend focusing on examples like, say the Havana syndrome, which are plausible examples of what you’re talking about.

2022-12-08 21:33:21 @AdamMantine @mattyglesias @nataliesurely You probably also believe in bloodletting instead of antibiotics for infections.

2022-12-08 21:32:00 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely I wish everyone on this beat would stop, read up on the history of peptic ulcers, a century of patients being gaslit about what caused it and how that changed, before writing yet another article with the same arguments ignoring latest science. That’s not how we overcome dualism.

2022-12-08 21:28:48 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely Also ignoring the fact that the key problem is that the patients are being gaslit by the medical establishment, for post-viral conditions as well as what might plausibly be called functional disorders—and whatever interactions occur between autoimmune disorders and mental states.

2022-12-08 21:25:31 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely The article would’ve been OK if it cut every single sentence after “But Long Covid was never exactly as cut and dried as some quarters made it out to be”. Everything after that is either a distraction or ignores enormous amount of science and experience. It’s really not okay.

2022-12-08 16:47:32 @DannyFischer35 @jeffbenner Yes immunodeficiency is scary (sorry!) and not something subtle as it's so devastating. I guess they use jargon salad to scare regular people who cannot evaluate it so that they'll get Twitter followers. That's why they harass scientists doing real research—they expose the con.

2022-12-08 15:08:48 @Burgos

2022-12-08 03:00:10 RT @linseymarr: Hooray! "ASHRAE...today announced its commitment to support the expedited development of a national indoor air quality (IAQ…

2022-12-07 23:09:33 @ritholtz

2022-12-07 17:26:47 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today is Alaa's son, Khaled's 11th Birthday. Alaa wasn't allowed to attend Khaled's birth because he was in prison. Sin…

2022-12-07 17:26:31 RT @Monasosh: If you are in London, write @alaa a card with a personal wish and join me next Monday to remind @JamesCleverly as he prepare…

2022-12-07 16:05:13 Anyway, the people in China are the victims here: from draconian repression disguised as Covid control to a tanking economy to profound human suffering over years—that they bravely protested—but now being thrust into more suffering because of authoritarian, callous incompetence.

2022-12-07 16:02:51 Hong Kong went through this earlier, an incompetent forced opening without being fully prepared. It was carnage. They quickly had some of the highest death rates in the world. China is a vast country: the potential suffering (that they will likely censor from the stats) is huge.

2022-12-07 15:59:34 China's vaccines aren't terrible

2022-12-07 15:54:18 @estro_femme Yeah, I'm sorry.

2022-12-07 15:53:34 Compare with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Japan had hardly any mandatory restrictions. S Korea traced huge early outbreaks back to zero. Way fewer deaths than US. Taiwan had of a strict but early Zero Covid strategy: opened schools in FEBRUARY of 2020. https://t.co/0gnJzYF6ns

2022-12-07 15:49:25 Some want to use China (dishonestly) for their Twitter outrage wars —by pretending China's repression resembled anything Western countries experienced—but look beyond that. Not only did people in China already suffer greatly, the easing without proper preparation will add to it.

2022-12-07 15:46:10 "For many, the expansive and often seemingly arbitrary pandemic measures became the clearest example of the excesses of Mr. Xi’s authoritarian tendencies". Also incompetence. They're easing rules due to pressure, after having tanked the economy, but without being fully prepared. https://t.co/yGaCoRJYDT

2022-12-07 15:41:47 RT @nytimes: The global auto industry still has extensive links to the Xinjiang region of China, a new report says, despite a U.S. law inte…

2022-12-07 14:27:35 RT @devisridhar: Dec 7: After several months of battling an Ebola outbreak with a strong public health response by the Ministry of Health,…

2022-12-08 22:50:10 RT @linseymarr: Lots happening to ensure cleaner air. Though not headline-grabbing, these will make a difference: 1⃣ Lancet recs on non-in…

2022-12-08 22:26:19 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It's the "but for" bit. Many clearly have an illness not explainable by stress alone, wouldn't be this ill *but for* a post-viral syndrome, which clearly existed throughout history and that medicine, in denial, kept attributing to "psychosocial factors"— like they did to ulcers.

2022-12-08 22:08:46 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I could definitely do that as well, and so many have written about it—as have I. It just keeps happening. I understand her argument and I’m sympathetic to it *when it applies*. Just baffled by this ongoing effort to implausibly stuff something that really doesn’t fit into it.

2022-12-08 22:00:59 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Then don’t lump postviral syndromes into your argument. Stick to Havana syndrome or similar examples. Stop interviewing the gaslighting establishment. If you have spoken with that many suffering from post-viral syndromes, then your interpretation is weak. It *simply* doesn’t fit.

2022-12-08 21:45:45 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your arguments don’t apply here. Please pick relevant examples. You don’t want to be like the people who long resisted the clear evidence of bacterial roots of peptic ulcers, furthering much suffering. This is a version if that. Not everything that exists applies to everything.

2022-12-08 21:43:54 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I get your argument and sympathetic to it.. when it applies. Speak to 100s of very healthy, active folks who come down with virus and suddenly can’t walk to the bathroom, dig up centuries of examples and talk to immunologists—who never got funds to research deeper. Doesn’t apply.

2022-12-08 21:40:29 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias You’re ignoring much science and the experience &

2022-12-08 21:35:22 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your article is behind on the science and the epidemiology and the experience of so many, which means something regardless of your dismissal. I sincerely recommend focusing on examples like, say the Havana syndrome, which are plausible examples of what you’re talking about.

2022-12-08 21:33:21 @AdamMantine @mattyglesias @nataliesurely You probably also believe in bloodletting instead of antibiotics for infections.

2022-12-08 21:32:00 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely I wish everyone on this beat would stop, read up on the history of peptic ulcers, a century of patients being gaslit about what caused it and how that changed, before writing yet another article with the same arguments ignoring latest science. That’s not how we overcome dualism.

2022-12-08 21:28:48 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely Also ignoring the fact that the key problem is that the patients are being gaslit by the medical establishment, for post-viral conditions as well as what might plausibly be called functional disorders—and whatever interactions occur between autoimmune disorders and mental states.

2022-12-08 21:25:31 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely The article would’ve been OK if it cut every single sentence after “But Long Covid was never exactly as cut and dried as some quarters made it out to be”. Everything after that is either a distraction or ignores enormous amount of science and experience. It’s really not okay.

2022-12-08 16:47:32 @DannyFischer35 @jeffbenner Yes immunodeficiency is scary (sorry!) and not something subtle as it's so devastating. I guess they use jargon salad to scare regular people who cannot evaluate it so that they'll get Twitter followers. That's why they harass scientists doing real research—they expose the con.

2022-12-08 15:08:48 @Burgos

2022-12-08 03:00:10 RT @linseymarr: Hooray! "ASHRAE...today announced its commitment to support the expedited development of a national indoor air quality (IAQ…

2022-12-07 23:09:33 @ritholtz

2022-12-07 17:26:47 RT @FreedomForAlaa: Today is Alaa's son, Khaled's 11th Birthday. Alaa wasn't allowed to attend Khaled's birth because he was in prison. Sin…

2022-12-07 17:26:31 RT @Monasosh: If you are in London, write @alaa a card with a personal wish and join me next Monday to remind @JamesCleverly as he prepare…

2022-12-07 16:05:13 Anyway, the people in China are the victims here: from draconian repression disguised as Covid control to a tanking economy to profound human suffering over years—that they bravely protested—but now being thrust into more suffering because of authoritarian, callous incompetence.

2022-12-07 16:02:51 Hong Kong went through this earlier, an incompetent forced opening without being fully prepared. It was carnage. They quickly had some of the highest death rates in the world. China is a vast country: the potential suffering (that they will likely censor from the stats) is huge.

2022-12-07 15:59:34 China's vaccines aren't terrible

2022-12-07 15:54:18 @estro_femme Yeah, I'm sorry.

2022-12-07 15:53:34 Compare with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Japan had hardly any mandatory restrictions. S Korea traced huge early outbreaks back to zero. Way fewer deaths than US. Taiwan had of a strict but early Zero Covid strategy: opened schools in FEBRUARY of 2020. https://t.co/0gnJzYF6ns

2022-12-07 15:49:25 Some want to use China (dishonestly) for their Twitter outrage wars —by pretending China's repression resembled anything Western countries experienced—but look beyond that. Not only did people in China already suffer greatly, the easing without proper preparation will add to it.

2022-12-07 15:46:10 "For many, the expansive and often seemingly arbitrary pandemic measures became the clearest example of the excesses of Mr. Xi’s authoritarian tendencies". Also incompetence. They're easing rules due to pressure, after having tanked the economy, but without being fully prepared. https://t.co/yGaCoRJYDT

2022-12-07 15:41:47 RT @nytimes: The global auto industry still has extensive links to the Xinjiang region of China, a new report says, despite a U.S. law inte…

2022-12-07 14:27:35 RT @devisridhar: Dec 7: After several months of battling an Ebola outbreak with a strong public health response by the Ministry of Health,…

2022-12-09 04:12:43 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias Even the WHO and the NHS, slow and bureaucratic, have abandoned GET. These patients want to desperately get better. They tried graded exercise. Some would amputate a limb if there was a glimmer of improvement there. Let me introduce you to many, many, many patients—over decades.

2022-12-09 03:59:02 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias The sooner medicine's gaslighting (no other word for it) campaign ends, and research funded and harmful (for this subgroup) approaches like GET abandoned in favor of better treatments, the easier to discuss what you seem to want to focus on, but which simply doesn't work here.

2022-12-09 03:55:24 @nataliesurely @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @mattyglesias Other things including injury (TBI has long been identified) may cause the same set of debilitating symptoms, but it's exceedingly clear that viral infections are a key dynamic, and for those, graded exercise (which many desperately wanting to get better try) does not really work

2022-12-09 03:41:21 @winstoncb @awgaffney @nataliesurely @newrepublic I'd, again, offer to introduce many, many patients whose independent stories do not fit this mold, go over decades (centuries!) of primary documentation of the syndromes, similarity to other examples of medical gaslighting &

2022-12-09 03:36:58 @winstoncb @awgaffney @nataliesurely @newrepublic I interviewed so many patients with these illnesses, and have yet to meet one that hasn't tried pretty much everything suggested, including CBT &

2022-12-09 03:33:16 @SteveWarden20 @smithsj @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Yep. This is SO likely to follow ulcers, HPV, airborne transmission into "wait, how did the establishment deny, reject, resist for so long" And one can write about psychosocial stress &

2022-12-09 03:23:59 @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I'm convinced their denial is likely the medical scandal of the century and also big breakthroughs possible if research is finally funded and pursued—especially with advances that finally allow working with viruses and immune system, both hard given very tiny size and complexity.

2022-12-09 03:20:42 @smithsj @SteveWarden20 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias "Post-viral syndromes cause baffling and debilitating chronic illness" absolutely fits the epi, history, the biomedical research as well as *widespread* patient experience, while psychosocial suffering—real and relevant to many things—as the "but for" explainer simply does not.

2022-12-09 03:15:28 @Kantrowitz And what did we even learn? I'm not a fan of how much power these platforms have, or the lack of transparency—among fairly-lengthy beefs I've had with it all—but being treated like we're all idiots isn't really the opposite of that. I mean, see this. https://t.co/Tfcs75X8Ut

2022-12-09 02:38:10 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 Consider that the illness is appropriately comparable to imprisonment—some of the “rest” that people undertake to retain minimal functioning are similar to sensory-deprived solitary punishment. Honestly, the analogy isn’t misplaced. Just to communicate its severity.

2022-12-09 02:26:25 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 It’s not name calling. This isn’t something that one just jumps into by ignoring so much evidence, and especially given the level of suffering post-viral conditions bring. I speak of this after much research, and I’ve written long articles that reflect a fraction of the research.

2022-12-09 02:04:25 @PatAndriola @vijayiyer312 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It doesn’t fit the facts of this syndrome—the epidemiology, history, advancing science &

2022-12-09 01:23:53 @Kantrowitz I'm also still awaiting what requests the Trump White House made, we were told that happened and yet, all I've seen revealed is the Biden campaign flagging non-consensual nudes. I don't understand how people are playing this game like everyone else is that stupid.

2022-12-09 01:21:51 @Kantrowitz I'm not sure Twitter even denied "shadowbanning" as they defined it—meaning you just didn't appear. They clearly deboosted stuff, to use Musk's terminology, and Musk's plan is to be *even more aggressive* with deboosting. If that's shadowbanning, we will just have more of it.

2022-12-09 01:15:24 @katypearce @aschrock @jdp23 Ah, thank you! Also happy to have ChatGPT think we are co-author, fine with me, lol.

2022-12-09 01:13:38 @Kantrowitz One of the first things Musk did after purchasing Twitter was to announce that, going forward, Twitter would have an aggressive policy of shadow-banning "negative/hate" and "hate speech" — presumably now defined solely by Musk. It's pretty amazing that nobody seems to care.

2022-12-08 22:50:10 RT @linseymarr: Lots happening to ensure cleaner air. Though not headline-grabbing, these will make a difference: 1⃣ Lancet recs on non-in…

2022-12-08 22:26:19 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias It's the "but for" bit. Many clearly have an illness not explainable by stress alone, wouldn't be this ill *but for* a post-viral syndrome, which clearly existed throughout history and that medicine, in denial, kept attributing to "psychosocial factors"— like they did to ulcers.

2022-12-08 22:08:46 @PatAndriola @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I could definitely do that as well, and so many have written about it—as have I. It just keeps happening. I understand her argument and I’m sympathetic to it *when it applies*. Just baffled by this ongoing effort to implausibly stuff something that really doesn’t fit into it.

2022-12-08 22:00:59 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Then don’t lump postviral syndromes into your argument. Stick to Havana syndrome or similar examples. Stop interviewing the gaslighting establishment. If you have spoken with that many suffering from post-viral syndromes, then your interpretation is weak. It *simply* doesn’t fit.

2022-12-08 21:45:45 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your arguments don’t apply here. Please pick relevant examples. You don’t want to be like the people who long resisted the clear evidence of bacterial roots of peptic ulcers, furthering much suffering. This is a version if that. Not everything that exists applies to everything.

2022-12-08 21:43:54 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias I get your argument and sympathetic to it.. when it applies. Speak to 100s of very healthy, active folks who come down with virus and suddenly can’t walk to the bathroom, dig up centuries of examples and talk to immunologists—who never got funds to research deeper. Doesn’t apply.

2022-12-08 21:40:29 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias You’re ignoring much science and the experience &

2022-12-08 21:35:22 @nataliesurely @mattyglesias Your article is behind on the science and the epidemiology and the experience of so many, which means something regardless of your dismissal. I sincerely recommend focusing on examples like, say the Havana syndrome, which are plausible examples of what you’re talking about.

2022-12-08 21:33:21 @AdamMantine @mattyglesias @nataliesurely You probably also believe in bloodletting instead of antibiotics for infections.

2022-12-08 21:32:00 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely I wish everyone on this beat would stop, read up on the history of peptic ulcers, a century of patients being gaslit about what caused it and how that changed, before writing yet another article with the same arguments ignoring latest science. That’s not how we overcome dualism.

2022-12-08 21:28:48 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely Also ignoring the fact that the key problem is that the patients are being gaslit by the medical establishment, for post-viral conditions as well as what might plausibly be called functional disorders—and whatever interactions occur between autoimmune disorders and mental states.

2022-12-08 21:25:31 @mattyglesias @nataliesurely The article would’ve been OK if it cut every single sentence after “But Long Covid was never exactly as cut and dried as some quarters made it out to be”. Everything after that is either a distraction or ignores enormous amount of science and experience. It’s really not okay.

2022-12-08 16:47:32 @DannyFischer35 @jeffbenner Yes immunodeficiency is scary (sorry!) and not something subtle as it's so devastating. I guess they use jargon salad to scare regular people who cannot evaluate it so that they'll get Twitter followers. That's why they harass scientists doing real research—they expose the con.

2022-12-08 15:08:48 @Burgos

2022-03-19 14:58:40 RT @BBCWorld: Empty prams lined up in Lviv for children killed in war - each pram represents one child https://t.co/bTIZ1NXy3v https://t.c… 2022-03-19 11:07:20 @kallmemeg @AlisonGeorge10 @SGriffin_Lab @danielgoyal @BinitaKane @mancunianmedic @dgurdasani1 Hope you feel better soon. I have a a friend who got a influenza co-infection. And then a secondary bacterial infection! Other respiratory viruses haven’t gone away. Plus influenza vaccine isn’t as good this year. I hear of people with rapid test ve+ missing bacterial infections. 2022-03-19 01:29:24 @melanied333 @Delta Yeah. Plus when you get an agent, they’re not authorized to do anything. All problems off-loaded to passengers and halpless agents. 2022-03-19 00:15:47 @melanied333 @Delta Three hours and counting… 2022-03-19 00:12:11 @delta “current hold time is two hours and twenty-nine minutes.” Flight rebooking offer for cancelled flights: two days into the future. Messages are about three hours behind. How is this supposed to work? 2022-03-18 23:34:45 RT @awgaffney: We should be building the infrastructure we need for a sustained, universal, primary-cared-based medical response to Covid-… 2022-03-18 16:01:20 RT @fryan: ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns & 2022-03-18 13:18:01 RT @davidbauer: Painful to read, but to learn from past mistakes, it's crucial to imagine the counterfactuals. @zeynep on four points where… 2022-03-17 23:19:12 RT @YAppelbaum: If you haven’t yet watched—or read— @Schwarzenegger’s message to the Russian people, it’s worth every minute of your time:… 2022-03-17 22:48:51 RT @jodikantor: This is a dispatch for history. About a mass grave of children. One killed on the soccer field. Another so young that an um… 2022-03-17 18:03:49 This is correct. https://t.co/9D4KKS6kSN 2022-03-17 14:50:58 @ericearling Yeah 2022-03-17 12:48:44 @ashishkjha @POTUS Congratulations, and best of luck! 2022-03-17 12:30:30 RT @Marusiasays: 8 years ago forcibly annexed Crimea. We watched idly. Crimean Tatars, the mostly Sunni Muslim indigenous group of Crime… 2022-03-17 12:02:47 RT @peterbakernyt: Jeff Zients, Biden’s coronavirus response through successive pandemic waves and the largest vaccination campaign in US h… 2022-03-16 22:50:04 RT @just_whatever: I have translated and added subtitles to the latest video speech by Vladimir Putin from two hours ago. Please don’t let… 2022-03-16 22:14:03 RT @Reuters: The word 'children' was painted in large Russian script on the ground outside the Mariupol Drama Theatre, Maxar satellite imag… 2022-03-16 21:41:52 RT @meganranney: For the past 3 months, we in medicine & Take the lessons from the last surg… 2022-03-16 21:41:15 @michieldehoog @mboudry Yeah. That was the biggest turning point. 2022-03-16 21:10:34 RT @antonioguterres: Last year, nearly 12 million people received life-saving assistance every month in Yemen. But now a lack of funds ris… 2022-03-16 06:38:30 RT @JeromeTaylor: This is what public health experts and responsible journalists in Hong Kong had been publicly warning about for more than… 2022-03-16 02:19:14 RT @iskander: Update: Everyone in the village starving, buses finally came yesterday but not enough for all the people. My mom's friend's f… 2022-03-16 01:51:46 RT @AkiPeritz: Chernobyl, site of the world’s worst nuclear-power disaster, is now the harrowing scene of 200 trapped, exhausted Ukrainian… 2022-03-16 01:31:28 RT @cliffordlevy: .@nytimes statement: "Our thoughts are with family, friends and colleagues of the cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski and the pro… 2022-03-15 23:32:34 @EagleEyes_MD Thank you. 2022-03-15 23:16:05 RT @meganranney: Oh PS: vaccinations decrease hospitalization rates among age 5+, and we are still waiting on vaxx for < 2022-03-15 22:30:02 @mboudry Thank you. I tried to stick with existing contemporaneous examples to steer clear of hindsight bias. 2022-03-15 22:15:36 RT @pamilewska: It’s time for once and for all acknowledge that fixers are essential workers for western media outlets. Covering conflicts… 2022-03-15 17:20:09 RT @lindseyhilsum: I’m very sad to hear of the deaths of Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrevskiiy and local producer Oleksandra Kuvshynova in… 2022-03-15 17:19:37 RT @ChristopherJM: Fox News’ Ukrainian producer Oleksandra Kuvshynova was also killed. Do not forget her. Without our Ukrainian colleagues… 2022-03-15 16:44:08 RT @laudyaron: “the cracks revealed in our governments and public health institutions by two years of inertia, mistakes and resistance to e… 2022-03-15 11:26:30 @paulg @redouad Unaccountable, incompetent government. Pretty much everyone I know in Hong Kong has been warning about this for many, many, many months. They’re heartbroken. Government is busy jailing people. 2022-03-15 01:35:48 @emilybell 2022-03-14 22:34:24 RT @maxseddon: A woman burst onto Russia’s main live evening newscast today with a sign that says: “Stop the war Don’t believe propaganda… 2022-03-14 19:06:05 RT @EricTopol: A post-mortem of the pandemic's preventable mortality https://t.co/pIbLWXuLP5 by @zeynep Including a large proportion of mo… 2022-03-14 15:41:19 @LawrenceGostin 2022-03-14 13:59:20 RT @LawrenceGostin: . @zeynep on #COVID19 is a tour de force. If China had acted like a global citizen we probably couldn't have avoided th… 2022-03-14 13:49:40 RT @harrislapiroff: Thinking more and more about this @zeynep insight. Everywhere I look on Twitter people are like, "Can you believe peopl… 2022-03-14 03:10:06 @aldenolmsted @awgaffney “Nearly 932,000 children younger than 5 were sent to the emergency room between 1999 and 2008 - that's nearly 100,000 kids per year treated for falling down the stairs”. What if you could easily make that much lower? Not sure if I’m more amazed at the innumeracy or lack of logic. 2022-03-14 03:01:08 RT @awgaffney: Vaccinating children against Covid-19 is a no-brainer. It doesn’t matter that the risk of Covid for children is very low on… 2022-03-14 01:19:56 RT @columbiajourn: Our community is deeply saddened by the killing of journalist Brent Renaud in #Ukraine. Our graduate and adjunct faculty… 2022-03-14 01:19:42 RT @NeilLewisJr: This. Is. Perfect. 2022-03-14 00:54:03 RT @Kasparov63: The Silicon Curtain continues to descend. Putin did not need to block much of the internet like China when he could corrupt… 2022-03-14 00:36:10 RT @iskander: The Red Cross buses never came and a neighboring family tried to drive back to Kyiv. Their van was shot up by Russian soldier… 2022-03-14 00:36:07 RT @iskander: My mom talks with her childhood friend in Kyiv every day. Her friend's family left Kiev to a small village, which they though… 2022-03-13 20:05:44 RT @melissakchan: Everybody is sharing that one essay from one Chinese dude, clinging on to it with hope it is some harbinger of shifting C… 2022-03-13 18:43:33 RT @selectedwisdom: Last week, Russia made disinfo claim biolabs in Ukraine, didn’t work in west, but in China, they are running with it ch… 2022-03-13 18:42:41 RT @pauseinlight: Journalist & Injured #Photojournalist Juan Arredondo who was with him, recount… 2022-03-13 14:48:06 RT @cliffordlevy: Our thoughts are with the family and friends of Brent, a brilliant filmmaker and wonderful colleague. An awful tragedy. B… 2022-03-13 14:36:15 RT @LawrenceGostin: . @zeynep on #COVID19 is a tour de force. If China had acted like a global citizen we probably couldn't have avoided th… 2022-03-13 14:08:20 RT @GYamey: This is very painful to read With earlier adoption of test/trace/isolate/support, widespread masking, ventilation & 2022-03-13 14:07:27 That’s right. This will make Twitter worse for everyone. Should be completely rolled back. https://t.co/6ds4HhqavJ 2022-03-13 06:57:00 RT @jdceulaer: De beste terugblik die u zult lezen, door ⁦@zeynep⁩. https://t.co/UiD1aKKjvc 2022-03-13 05:47:36 RT @mycoliza: the fact that twitter is still trying to push “home” as the default, despite the fact that literally everyone hates it, yet a… 2022-03-13 05:46:34 RT @zach_goodall: Twitter needs to stop trying to force the home timeline onto us. It’s awful. I’d care less if the new update didn’t auto… 2022-03-13 02:13:45 @pkafka I will leave the app. Just use it as broadcast medium. No point in this format. 2022-03-13 02:07:19 I will stop using Twitter if this isn’t fixed. Not worth my time. Just let those who use it that way have a chronological timeline, fullstop. https://t.co/aP0cIspTg0 2022-03-13 01:45:51 @CarwilBJ Absolutely. 2022-03-13 01:45:24 RT @CarwilBJ: A really important walk-through of possible alternative responses that could have fundamentally changed the course of the COV… 2022-03-13 01:39:33 @Craig_A_Spencer 2022-03-12 23:16:41 RT @VABVOX: Long, detailed, in-depth piece by @zeynep on how MILLIONS of lives could have been saved from #COVID if the world had followed… 2022-03-12 21:11:59 RT @LawrenceGostin: . @zeynep on #COVID19 is a tour de force. If China had acted like a global citizen we probably couldn't have avoided th… 2022-03-12 20:41:12 RT @EricTopol: A post-mortem of the pandemic's preventable mortality https://t.co/pIbLWXuLP5 by @zeynep Including a large proportion of mo… 2022-03-12 20:40:49 RT @jpaulgoode: In Nizhny Novgorod, a protestor is arrested for holding up a blank sheet of paper. Poignant evidence that everyone already… 2022-03-12 20:35:03 RT @RadioFreeTom: Hey Twitter, stop trying to make curated tweets a thing and let me just see the latest tweets in order, please and thank… 2022-03-12 18:30:23 RT @ludtke: How Millions of Lives Might Have Been Saved From Covid-19. Como sempre, uma excelente reflexão da ⁦⁦@zeynep⁩ https://t.co/pz… 2022-03-12 17:17:00 RT @donmoyn: NY Times reporters uncovered how the right wing group Project Veritas has employed former spies to infiltrate and discredit po… 2022-03-12 17:02:04 @WriterNancyJane Thank you. 2022-03-12 14:11:41 RT @NYHammond: .⁦@zeynep:⁩ “Two years of inertia, mistakes and resistance to evidence make it crucial that a broad, tough dissection of wha… 2022-03-12 08:11:00 CAFIAC FIX 2022-01-25 05:53:36 @kj_seung @angie_rasmussen @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh So exactly my impression as below and hence why the above timeline in the news report didn’t make sense to me. Thanks, KJ! Good night! (One day, there might even be cluster busting tracing!) https://t.co/BM6fsFO6JE https://t.co/beArCBN81D 2022-01-25 05:51:39 @kj_seung @angie_rasmussen @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Yep, that was my impression. Ptown did not have conclusive report on vaccinated transmitting. Definitely not publicly known reports at the time but even in the detailed report published months later—superspreading event in middle makes it harder. Otoh, many earlier reports. 2022-01-25 05:36:43 @kj_seung @angie_rasmussen @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Hong Kong is contact tracing hamsters. https://t.co/q8p4GXKFUZ 2022-01-25 05:31:01 @kj_seung @angie_rasmussen @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Yeah. You can see what other countries are doing, and what the 21st century version of this work looks like when it’s high quality. 2022-01-25 05:29:31 @angie_rasmussen @kj_seung @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Yeah, helpful but not always necessary. The July report has neither. As we do see, the later report which includes sequencing cannot fully resolve it either because there was a potential giant superspreading event. Singapore, otoh, had very detailed transmission reports by June. 2022-01-25 05:24:59 @AaronRichterman @amymaxmen Yep. That’s the final version of the October pre-print! Still doesn’t fit the July week, as recounted by the article I was referring to—which started my remark on this. If we’re going to be this slow with things, why can’t we use data from other countries? Baffling. 2022-01-25 05:21:11 @kj_seung @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Exactly. The timeline doesn’t make epistemic sense (“we just found out! Who knew!”), and hints at exactly that: disconnect, including with a pretty significant amount of fairly systematic data from other countries. 2022-01-25 05:16:01 @macroliter @amymaxmen So you do think they had this data in July and kept it secret? Wow. I am going by what was publicly stated at the time. The later publications made a stronger (still) circumstantial case, but that is end of October. We are talking about July. Sorry, I am wary of such accusations. 2022-01-25 05:14:02 @kj_seung @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh Yep! I wrote my article saying vaccinated people were transmitting with Delta a week before Ptown incident, and I had multiple examples of high-quality data from elsewhere, and I mentioned the pile of anectodes that had really grown. No problem with fact-check. It was documented. 2022-01-25 05:12:31 @macroliter @amymaxmen I’d be a little wary of making that accusation personally, but am open to hearing that case if you think that’s what happened. 2022-01-25 05:12:03 @macroliter @amymaxmen Yes, excellent report. End of October. Once again, my remark is about the end of July assertion. Also, even that three month later report doesn’t claim to resolve. Are you suggesting CDC had this data in July but did not publish it in the MMWR or mention it? That seems weird. 2022-01-25 05:04:28 @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh @kj_seung Hence my surprise: “Ptown showed us vaccinated people were transmitting”—the CDC report does not make that claim, and cannot due to the nature of the data. Plus, as noted, we had Singapore, UK and other *actual* high-quality tracing that did show this already. 2022-01-25 05:02:25 @amymaxmen @phealthsean @__emh @kj_seung I don’t doubt the community may have worked hard to identify infections. Still could not have identified whether vaccinated people were transmitting, which requires a different kind of work, including temporal locating, sequencing, etc. None of that is in the MMWR report. 2022-01-25 04:57:08 @amymaxmen Okay. Straightforward point of fact though. There was no contact-tracing in Ptown that would show whether vaccinated people were transmitting, which is the claim in the article. No way to make the conclusion from its data that has been reported or published. 2022-01-25 04:53:10 @amymaxmen Again, it had no contact tracing to show whether vaccinated people were transmitting, as claimed there. If you want to say the community did the work to find infections? Great. Still not the same thing. Still not clear why replies are limited? Is that your standard practice? 2022-01-25 04:49:31 @amymaxmen (Still unclear to me, why are replies limited? Anyway, luckily, it seems I can actually reply to point out what the report itself actually says, and why that doesn’t make sense in light of the claim in the article). 2022-01-25 04:48:15 @amymaxmen Details and precision matter. Provincetown did not, and could not, prove it vaccinated people were transmitting. The actual paper did not make that claim. The community *found* infections (good for them, but not the same thing). Meanwhile, Singapore etc. had already shown this. 2022-01-25 04:44:27 @amymaxmen That’s great here’s the actual report. There was no reported contact-tracing that would allow discerning *transmission* from vaccinated people, which is what the article is claiming. Vaccinated breakthroughs aren’t the same. (Why are replies limited?) https://t.co/hXDBdIxp7N 2022-01-24 19:07:16 Link to my article week before the Provincetown paper. Parts of it are me arguing from ~sociology (like the need/role for mandates, school mitigations, and speedy full approval) but the ~virus part is based on *existing* high-quality data from elsewhere. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt 2022-01-24 18:57:09 I think the real question of our late response to Delta remains the same: 1-Why are we so late to being able to generate high-quality data, and often not even managing it even late. 2-Why don't we at least act early enough on high-quality data from elsewhere? 2022-01-24 18:54:12 The account is from below article. We *already* had a lot of data from U.K., Singapore etc. since early June showing Delta clusters through vaccinated people. So not sure this explains why we had to wait for a paper that didn't even manage to prove this? https://t.co/cGwWCzD1o5 2022-01-24 18:50:22 Somewhat stunned by this account because: 1-We *had* data on vaccinated transmitting with Delta since June. See my article week before Provincetown paper, no problem with fact-check 2-Provincetown had no contact-tracing so didn't prove anything about vaccinated transmitting. https://t.co/GQrPClWDKt 2022-01-24 18:22:39 Yeah, absolutely. This was the correct messaging, that we should have adopted immediately in early 2020. It was correct, action-oriented, clear and fit the observed epidemiology. https://t.co/mVigc2uDQZ 2022-01-24 18:03:56 @hollyhoye @ezraklein Thank you! 2022-01-24 17:52:12 @Andre__Damon @zynep Thank you for sharing my piece. My name has two "e"s in it. That sentence is referring to the 1977 flu pandemic. Pretty proud of how well that whole piece has held up tbh. Cheers! 2022-01-24 17:41:28 To answer queries: One: I read Dr. Oshitani's work back then, and wrote about it. So this isn't a post hoc thing. They were right *in real time.* Two: Always check the epidemiology. His early work fit the observed world and basic science even though WHO, CDC etc. were behind. 2022-01-24 16:18:40 @hkhanirl See above, mentioned Taiwan as an example of category. In terms of relevant examples—certain strategies are very difficult once early outbreaks happen and grow, but even then, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam show how much can be done. 2022-01-24 16:05:41 @Francis_Aln You are not correct, as I read their papers from then, and was following in real time and have been in touch with Dr. Oshitani in 2020. There was absolutely significant amount of (yes emerging but very real) evidence *and* prior science on all three factors as of February 2020. 2022-01-24 15:28:01 @JDMayger Thank you! By the way, that article was published because my amazing editor at the time just let it be when I said "how about 5K words on overdispersion"—normally, people think nobody will read such things. But it was widely read! I think there is an audience for depth. 2022-01-24 15:21:52 So much focus on, say, Sweden, a highly-vaxxed high-trust society with middling results, or Israel, not that highly-vaxxed. Or Taiwan, a model hard to implement after-the-fact. More interesting examples are.. Japan. South Korea. Even Vietnam, that struggled to get vaccines. 2022-01-24 15:13:38 An amazing piece by Japan's Dr. Oshitani—that I learned so much from—on how Japan did so well by recognizing the key role of airborne spread, presymptomatic transmission and superspreading by FEBRUARY OF 2020. What good "following the science" looks like. https://t.co/qc0sGJAbIQ https://t.co/FVxhMeeBka 2022-01-24 13:58:16 @wanderer_jasnah @butts_4_jesus @RightsRobins @michaelC8786 @seventiessally @RufusSG But it’s an uncertain time, and there is lost trust, so such things can thrive on Twitter, especially since highly-qualified critics can be blocked, and there is too much nonsense anyway. I see well-meaning people fall for it, too. 2022-01-24 13:55:17 @wanderer_jasnah @butts_4_jesus @RightsRobins @michaelC8786 @seventiessally @RufusSG Also, it’s not a matter of “like”. Some experts made incomprehensible-to-me statements denying the obvious on airborne transmission, for example. But I’m not going to turn into an anti-vaxxer because of that! One person was wrong/field was wrong doesn’t make crankery correct. 2022-01-24 13:40:07 Reminder that not every crank is Galileo. Yes, experts can be wrong, even a field can be wrong—we saw with airborne—but challenges involve *groups* of actual working, publishing scientists. Lone person contradicting whole field and the observed data? Works only on Twitter. 2022-01-24 13:36:24 @wanderer_jasnah @butts_4_jesus @RightsRobins @michaelC8786 @seventiessally @RufusSG He’s blocked people who would actually challenge him and many scientists in the field don’t bother, because why spend time refuting cranks (who is not in the field at all—not since grad school many years ago) on Twitter. Jasnah is more direct and honest, so she gets attacked. 2022-01-24 04:44:26 @wanderer_jasnah Thread here. Pretty clear. https://t.co/xNfUO0vNQx 2022-01-24 04:43:29 @wanderer_jasnah Yep. Also hospitalization data itself isn’t compatible. 2022-01-23 16:04:59 @Hold2LLC @AllenShrugged @Ricosanti4 Clearly, you have an investigative urge, and want to poke holes. Fine! But you've talked yourself into a corner on *this* topic, and it is not productive. When country after country has the same trend showing why vaccination would benefit even those infected, hear the message. 2022-01-23 16:03:00 @Hold2LLC @AllenShrugged @Ricosanti4 Why I am going to stop wasting my time. You are pointing to tables of raw numbers to compare, EVEN AS THE TABLE EXPLAINS WE DO NOT TO COMPARE RAW NUMBERS, and then showing me tables of *infections*, rather than hospitalization/ICU which is the point. Unproductive hobby, honestly. 2022-01-23 15:49:26 @Hold2LLC @AllenShrugged @Ricosanti4 Why don't you first figure out why you cannot use raw numbers? You are objecting to the most obvious, basic correct actions they are taking. As for categorization, US isn't good at this but same pattern holds in countries like the UK with excellent centralized record keeping. 2022-01-23 15:27:57 @AllenShrugged @Ricosanti4 @Hold2LLC Yes, minor adjustments happen. But you guys think there’s an underlying picture dramatically different than the above, despite the same trend in country after country after country. At some point, trying to talk yourself into denying reality via nitpicking hits a wall. 2022-01-23 15:09:06 @Hold2LLC @wshalhoub929 @ianmSC @nycHealthy Of course it’s a pretty standard thing to do. Ratios would be misrepresentative otherwise. So far it seems you’ve discovered an appropriate effort to make the numbers represent proper baselines. 2022-01-23 02:27:53 @wanderer_jasnah 2022-01-23 02:26:52 RT @DrSteveMartin: Submitting my paper open access https://t.co/hy2V2CNSOu 2022-01-22 23:02:12 @Ricosanti4 @Hold2LLC I have skimmed, and I will look in detail but I don’t really see how this would undermine the basic point. When you have this much real life data, from country after country, minor adjustments may need to be done to the statistics but the key message remains the same. 2022-01-22 21:46:20 @snoweffect3 The conclusion is that even for those people, adding vaccines seems much better. 2022-01-22 21:37:07 @WhitneyEpi 2022-01-22 21:25:21 @CarlosdelRio7 Against severe outcomes, at least, even if breakthrough protection is way lower? Whatever level it is, clearly much lower than being vaccinated or also being vaccinated—unfortunately, I think many people have been misled on this point, being told "natural immunity" was enough. 2022-01-22 21:02:56 Speaking of epi curves: check actually highly-vaccinated places. (Portugal acted with precaution against Omicron & 2022-01-22 20:19:25 @notdred Brownian motion would like a word. 2022-01-22 19:17:54 @wanderer_jasnah @sindan2s 2022-01-22 18:31:41 @JoelofMoore There is also a large cohort of vaccinated people who lower or drop NPIs. It’s not as visible on Twitter because it’s not as in harmony with the narrative, I think. 2022-01-22 18:15:40 @MartianPontiac @SimonBrundish Really funny how they are so many more of them among the unvaccinated. Magic. 2022-01-22 17:57:41 @jo_nur_jo This is a irrelevant to the basic point here that those people would be *more* protected if also vaccinated. Why try to have a fair fight with a virus? 2022-01-22 17:56:08 @halvorz What about academics who do journalism who used to be coders? 2022-01-22 17:21:21 So, yes, prior infection alone will be protective to some degree, but clearly some of those people are ending up in the ICU when additional vaccination could have kept them out. I'm not coming at it with assumptions, it's the coherent explanation for the world as we observe it. 2022-01-22 17:17:07 *After* the Omicron breakthrough wave, this will be true. It wasn't really until a big consideration until now, because of the relatively low breakthrough rates. So the above numbers showing the spectacular protection afforded by the vaccines do hold. https://t.co/h9Q71lEzOT 2022-01-22 17:11:55 @vplus NYC has a lot of unvaccinated, and some populations (like 80+ etc.) are always extra vulnerable and boosters among them had been lacking. But yes, a tsunami of mild breakthroughs, with a small percent of severe cases. Still a big number. 2022-01-22 17:10:35 @wunderpup06 @podcastnotes Yeah hearing a lot of stories like that from emergency rooms—prior infected people who thought they had become superimmune or something, avoided getting vaccine. Even a dose could have greatly helped them, but alas. 2022-01-22 17:09:06 Especially the mRNA vaccines are doing a spectacular job, despite being formulated against the ancestral spike. Boosters add significant additional protection. It's getting harder to bamboozle around this fact. The job is to vaccinate the world with the best vaccines we have. 2022-01-22 17:03:24 Here's my personal best lesson of the pandemic: always check the epidemiological curves. Whatever people say may be going on, it has to be compatible with what we are observing in the real world. That principle has never led me astray in trying to make sense of it all. 2022-01-22 16:59:58 Earlier in the pandemic, many patterns did fit "there are remaining groups of truly seronegative people among the unvaccinated." Right now, I think it is clear that "natural immunity" only is leaving people much more vulnerable than they need to be—vaccination would help them. 2022-01-22 16:57:49 In my view, hospitalization numbers from country after country with big prior outbreaks make a strong case against this. I don't think there is any other coherent way to explain these epidemiological curves except to say infected-only are less protected. https://t.co/elxgxSL69p 2022-01-22 16:53:48 The always excellent @jbakcoleman breaks down the math. Vaccinated vs unvaccinated is no longer "vaccinated vs truly immunonaive". It's vaccinated against an unvaccinated population with significant amounts of "natural immunity" (an imprecise word). https://t.co/xNfUO0vNQx 2022-01-22 16:49:45 After two pandemic years, there is a lot of infection among the unvaccinated. Thus, many current studies of vaccine effectiveness are not like the initial trials, comparing vaccine to true lack of immunity. The current crop of VE numbers can thus be misleading in comparison. 2022-01-22 16:46:54 Spectacular, but it's still understating how effective vaccines actually are. Many of the unvaccinated in NYC do have prior infection—which does, of course, provide some protection. But the outcomes are *still* this lopsided because the vaccinated are protected so much better. https://t.co/jzGBmDu6xW 2022-01-22 00:29:44 This can’t be a debate. There’s no on the other hand here. Ethically *and* pragmatically, this is as clear cut as it gets. Seems somebody’s arguing this will encourage more immigration. That’s yet another example of distorted, convoluted thinking that made them hold back tests. https://t.co/94LMtc2fwY 2022-01-21 20:54:53 @anitaycheng 2022-01-21 18:33:41 @kallmemeg @Ayjchan @Twitter @sdbaral YOU HAVE A NATURE ARTICLE ABOUT YOU. Link to that? 2022-01-21 18:31:18 @alexandrosM @shimmer_kid @Natanael_L @5StarVictory Also the immune system isn't just the antibodies. What the lab can measure isn't necessarily the "strength" of the actual response. We measure them because we can, which is fine, but better answers are in the epi curve. 2022-01-21 14:32:25 @kallmemeg Did they give a reason? You should definitely get a blue check, given what you do. @Twitter folks might want to recheck. 2022-01-21 12:51:20 Yes! The immune system training from the vaccine is natural, without the risks of the infection. Without it, the immune system ends up having to fight without prior practice. Usually it’s fine. Sometimes, you get knocked out! Why give the virus an upper hand? No virtue to that. https://t.co/LNaBfb3uBD 2022-01-21 03:31:19 @LindaHirshman1 @ezraklein 2022-01-21 03:01:01 @svscarpino @dylanhmorris @jallepap @CT_Bergstrom Exactly, yeah. 2022-01-21 01:52:15 RT @paimadhu: Should be obvious, but people in rich nations are NOT getting this simple fact: "It’s impossible for a single country to end… 2022-01-21 01:50:17 @shimmer_kid Even they will benefit from getting vaccinated. That’s a simple truth, too. Very well shown by now. 2022-01-21 01:49:32 @andrewcurrah South Korea and Japan would like a word. 2022-01-21 01:20:38 Sad. Lots of people have made too much hay out of the fact that natural immunity *does* confer protection, BUT IN THE RISKIEST MANNER POSSIBLE. Contrarianism isn’t critical thinking. There is no need to engage in a fair fight with the virus. It’s not a moral agent. https://t.co/RL6AKJUsTJ 2022-01-21 00:48:04 RT @__Chimaera: @BrianRWasik @zeynep And it’s remained that way in NYC for vaccinated people. This is updated as of 1/8 so it def includes… 2022-01-21 00:23:14 RT @BrianRWasik: Indeed this is a lie. People need to push back on this hard. Vaccination reduces risk of infection. There is more than O… 2022-01-21 00:15:04 @ityllux @mcmageejr Do you have a link for that? 2022-01-21 00:03:42 RT @mcmageejr: “Zeynep’s Law” @zeynep (Benefits of 1st order affect are almost never eliminated by some possible 2nd order effect you’ve dr… 2022-01-20 20:05:01 @Melindamotiv8s Thank you. 2022-01-20 16:05:21 @dmzande 2022-01-20 15:03:40 @ProfHayward Thank you! 2022-01-20 13:48:53 @TracyValcourt No please do share! And ugh! 2022-01-20 04:42:14 RT @ezraklein: Personally, I’ve decided to live by @zeynep’s maxim: Don’t predict, prepare. (Which is different, as those who heard the pod… 2022-01-20 04:12:13 @LilMissHotMess @TracyValcourt @uarizona Where is that from??? Link? 2022-01-20 03:58:12 @TracyValcourt Do you have a link to that claim? 2022-01-20 03:52:01 @bcmassey @mikedariano 2022-01-20 03:16:31 @tressiemcphd Dangerous what? 2022-01-20 02:12:39 RT @pamelacolloff: Before the pandemic, I could never have imagined that one day I would be engrossed by a conversation about subjects like… 2022-01-20 01:16:47 RT @ToddFeathers: If you work for a school and are concerned about how the technology you’re using affects the students under your care, we… 2022-01-20 00:43:12 @gretabyrum 2022-01-19 22:31:09 @pamelacolloff Thank you! *blush* 2022-01-19 21:19:35 @pamelacolloff Thank you! 2022-01-19 19:49:56 RT @Covid19first: @Diedhein @BleekerRovers .@zeynep https://t.co/ngsFrGncPe https://t.co/4HZETeaLCA 2022-01-19 19:21:18 RT @Ayjchan: "The entire clause that suggested that the WHO should have speedy access to disease outbreak sites has been removed – at the i… 2022-01-19 19:04:12 @VirusesImmunity @wanderer_jasnah @SetteLab @profshanecrotty @Alba_Grifoni @andrew_croxford @deeptabhattacha Thank *you* for all your amazing, excellent research *and* compassionate approach *and* your generosity with your time and knowledge. 2022-01-19 19:02:52 RT @ARozenshtein: Great conversation between @ezraklein and @zeynep throughout, and I particularly like "Zeynep's Law" https://t.co/YA8uLgq… 2022-01-19 17:42:12 Yes! My apologies. The data is even stronger than what I said in the original tweet. Vaccines were shown to be extraordinarily protective against multisystem inflammatory syndrome for COVID—not a single fully-vaccinated case in the dataset. https://t.co/CxQHu8PLGd https://t.co/LhBU0E5UnG 2022-01-19 17:31:17 Upon request, all in one tweet: if you want to be informed about the science of viruses & 2022-01-19 15:15:20 RT @syramadad: In this @ezraklein podcast with @zeynep - she provides a great overview of various failures on Covid and how we can prepare… 2022-01-19 05:37:08 @BrianTHart @ezraklein Thank you! 2022-01-19 05:16:20 @Jencling 2022-01-19 05:03:58 @ritwik_priya Sure. https://t.co/gTpFFctEBa 2022-01-19 04:52:53 “The absence of MIS-C cases in fully vaccinated children prevented calculation of an HR for this group.” (HZ: hazard ratio). Given onset time, researcher think the few MIS-C kids with a single dose were infected right before or around getting vaccinated—before immune response. https://t.co/ayOvkkrpe0 2022-01-19 04:48:29 Study from France: Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children by COVID-19 Vaccination Status. Their tables have no line for fully-vaccinated children in their. Why? Because there wasn’t a single one among the 33 MIS-C cases in that hospital. https://t.co/DOJ2XB6A5F https://t.co/6qyTYiMnLZ 2022-01-19 04:19:46 @sdbaral Means-testing would be a huge amount of bureaucracy and waste, though, no? Distribute more in poorer areas, neighborhoods, workplaces, sure. But universal coverage of a basic amount (however late) is easier to implement. Could have been more! These are just strips, in essence. 2022-01-19 04:09:06 @patrick_s_smart Thank you! 2022-01-19 03:13:03 @syramadad @ezraklein Thank you! 2022-01-19 02:53:49 RT @ScottGottliebMD: Zeynep Tufekci on the pandemic's lessons, and what we haven't learned. Podcast with @ezraklein @zeynep https://t.co/K… 2022-01-19 02:42:17 @CarlosdelRio7 @ezraklein Thank you! 2022-01-19 02:22:17 @IrfanDhalla @ezraklein 2022-01-19 01:00:57 @LindsaySandoval Thank you! 2022-01-18 22:36:36 @juanrive You're very welcome! 2022-01-18 22:20:02 @Left_for_Life 2022-01-18 22:02:41 @abcontigo @ezraklein 2022-01-18 20:54:34 RT @ezraklein: Here's @zeynep on: -Ventilation -Closing schools -Why South Korea has so outperformed the US -What the CDC and FDA did wron… 2022-01-18 19:55:50 @MarkDestler I'm glad he's testing negative! Yeah, from so many accounts, this is not that rare. Best of luck! 2022-01-18 19:01:39 @WriterNancyJane Thank you! 2022-01-18 18:42:00 If you’re looking for excellent, informative and accurate people to follow on immunology, great list below. Also do note Jasnah herself is an *actual* coronavirologist, and super sharp. https://t.co/op3XG2sbcR 2022-01-18 18:22:03 @KCPangallo @ezraklein 2022-01-18 18:21:54 RT @KCPangallo: This podcast spoke to me in my soul - as a scientist, mom, teacher, and School Committee member. Thank you, ⁦@ezraklein⁩ an… 2022-01-18 16:34:12 @RobbDawson4 @DinaPomeranz @ezraklein 2022-01-18 14:23:35 RT @nytopinion: “There’s a world in which we could have just gotten it all together and probably vaccinated everybody in the world by early… 2022-01-18 13:04:52 @yachtmommii I hope not. But the alternative—not looking at the data as empirically as possible—isn't helpful either because then it all looks less real. I'm a bit concerned that not well-done surveys (without controls) have muddied things like that, to the detriment of Long Covid sufferers. 2022-01-18 12:49:24 @DinaPomeranz @ezraklein Thank you! 2022-01-18 12:48:55 RT @DinaPomeranz: Super informative @ezraklein show with @zeynep about Omicron, vaccine and how to prepare for the future regarding Covid.… 2022-01-18 05:45:02 RT @TWenseleers: Omicron infection enhances immunity against Delta for those who have been vaccinated, but hardly does so for people that a… 2022-01-17 22:55:43 @johnbates @MSF_USA 2022-01-17 21:02:53 @halvorz Yeah. Thorny. But someone’s going to eventually get fame, maybe fortune and most deservedly a Nobel for cracking post-viral sequelae, autoimmune conditions and maybe obliterating the mind/body dualism while at it. Maybe pandemic will be the reframing. 2022-01-17 20:54:34 @michaelmina_lab Best wishes. I have multiple phones for security research! Same idea. 2022-01-17 19:09:47 @melanied333 Indeed. I'm sorry to hear that, but yes that has not been uncommon, unfortunately. 2022-01-17 19:07:56 I hope all the "it's usually mild in young people, why get vaccinated" folks think again in light of these findings. There is absolutely no character to be built by having a fair fight with the virus. Shovel your elderly neighbor's snow or do some tough volunteer work instead. 2022-01-17 19:02:37 @jbarro @jeremygale Right. Stress alone can cause many *REAL* issues that have some overlap, and also the stress of having Long Covid can make things worse, and Long Covid can also be causal. I don't say this to dismiss stress at all 2022-01-17 18:57:54 Really hoping that concerns over Long Covid opens doors to a lot of research that also helps people suffering from ME/CFS and similar neglected, real conditions. It shouldn't have taken a pandemic, but here we are. 2022-01-17 18:52:19 So finally we're getting some data on what happens with breakthroughs after vaccination. It's encouraging! I hope it holds in other studies, too! When we talk about "mild" we should always say with or without vaccine or prior infection, and hopefully have control groups, too. 2022-01-17 18:50:46 Discussion on Long Covid and "mild" infection has been so muddled. We know it CAN happen after mild primary (i.e. no vaccine) infection But "mild" pre- and post vaccination is not identical.+ 2022-01-17 18:43:24 Preprint from Israel finds that people who have breakthrough COVID *after* two-doses of the vaccines, are no more likely to report Long Covid symptoms compared with people who have not been infected at all. So they found that vaccination brings Long Covid risk back to baseline. https://t.co/Jz6l7AZ0Z0 2022-01-17 08:11:00 CAFIAC FIX 2022-01-13 03:56:15 RT @PaulSaxMD: I was trying to describe how Covid gobbles up all the time we ID docs used to spend on other stuff -- there are only so many… 2022-01-13 01:24:34 @EricTopol What on earth is this??? 2022-01-13 00:00:54 The result will be a much lowered ability to assess wage growth or lack thereof. https://t.co/3BkNxyG2ru 2022-01-12 23:09:50 @dylanhmorris @PrasadKasibhat1 And! 2022-01-12 23:09:42 @dylanhmorris @PrasadKasibhat1 Also!!! 2022-01-12 23:09:31 @dylanhmorris @PrasadKasibhat1 Yep!!! 2022-01-12 23:05:49 @jbakcoleman 2022-01-12 22:20:32 RT @TWenseleers: New study: "viral load shedding was much lower (0.68 log) & 2022-01-12 21:20:11 @deadprogrammer Alternatively you just get them to confess that they are P and NP. https://t.co/8FeavRaRX3 2022-01-12 21:13:08 @VaccineJo @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard Maybe. Either way the article is incorrect as it is written now. The Corbevax claims are without data. I would also say the statements about the other vaccines are severely lacking as they leave out crucified *actual* data on how effective they are. Poor countries deserve better. 2022-01-12 20:45:42 RT @edyong209: So instead of cosplaying as data journalists, people might try just asking healthcare workers what's actually happening to t… 2022-01-12 16:47:37 @VaccineJo @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard @PeterHotez The *last* thing we want on top of the vaccine hoarding by the wealthy and failure to invest to scale up and equitably distribute mRNA vaccines, is the impression that Western media/scientists are okay with poorer countries getting vaccines we'd never approve here. Need the data. 2022-01-12 16:44:39 @VaccineJo @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard @PeterHotez I would love for there to be a properly-funded trial to measure effectiveness, efficacy and/or non-inferiority for this—especially important since ChAdOx1 is widely available in India, and Novavax, a protein subunit like Corbevax, has actual trial data so that's one baseline. 2022-01-12 16:41:59 @VaccineJo @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard @PeterHotez Indeed, and a non-public imputation calculation from non-public antibody levels is certainly not effectiveness or efficacy. These terms have meanings! One could speculatively impute, but that's what it should be called. *Especially* important given directed at poorer countries. 2022-01-12 16:09:28 @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard Animal models or vaccine production studies do not measure effectiveness, neither does immunogenicity—hopefully that data will be released soon, but it still wouldn't measure that. I want this vaccine to succeed, but poor countries deserve the transparency we demand here. 2022-01-12 16:08:21 @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard Could you kindly point me to which one is measuring effectiveness, as you claim in your article? There is *no* trial to measure effectiveness I can find. There are preliminary public studies, and there is a trial that is yet to release data but that only measures immunogenicity. 2022-01-12 16:00:53 @janusrose @EllaFassler @motherboard Thanks for the response! However, there is no "effectiveness" data either, nor an ongoing trial that could measure "90% effectiveness." There is a small trial with non-public data, but it is not measuring that. See. Is there another trial you guys know? https://t.co/kHS9TxZHGt 2022-01-12 15:19:15 @EllaFassler @motherboard Hey, are you able to point me to a source for these claims or correct it? People in poorer countries deserve just as much transparency as people in wealthy countries. Vaccine hoarding has been bad enough—demanding any less transparency than we get would be a terrible addition. 2022-01-12 05:01:42 @dampscribbler Public school? 2022-01-12 04:30:58 @marvelle 2022-01-12 04:14:53 @xac How long does the PCR take usually? 2022-01-12 04:11:47 Just trying to understand this is a few districts or this is now common? Maybe just a rare hiccup? Issue seems to be we don’t offer these kids rapid tests, or fast turn-around PCR, or remote/hybrid schooling while they are stuck at home waiting for a test result… 2022-01-12 04:09:35 @literaryeric How long did it take for her to get back to school? Was there a virtual option while she waited? It is fine to try to limit spread but seems like two years in, we should have a faster turnaround and some way to let these kids be hybrid while waiting. 2022-01-12 04:07:02 I’m hearing that kids are being sent home from school because of vague symptoms, including kids with minor allergies etc., and not allowed to go back to school until a PCR test is done and returned—but that it takes a long time. No virtual school either while waiting. Common? 2022-01-12 03:47:49 Well-deserved recognition! https://t.co/6KkC6aQStQ 2022-01-12 03:37:26 @DavidAScales Seems like protecting people better should overrule this concern. In any case they can just say nothing is hundred percent but every layer helps. It’s been two years, people have settled into their own risk calculation. 2022-01-12 02:44:33 Yeah. Just wear them anyway. Yes, better fit without a beard but *still* better than a mask that’s not an N95, or has bad fit and filter anyway. Again: better is better. Not perfect is still better. https://t.co/wBhNBqbA2W 2022-01-12 02:42:33 @lotzof_gas You need to start by learning about the filter mechanisms of masks. They don’t just filter like sieves. 2022-01-12 02:41:06 Yeah. Just put it on. Pinch the nose. Watch a tutorial if you want. Better than a gaping, flimsy mask which is what usually happens otherwise. It’s fine. Better is better. No counterintuitive second-order complexity to this. https://t.co/mW822iU0Ix 2022-01-12 02:38:40 @amyhoy @mattbc Yeah. Send some masks, tests and a card. “Stay safe, Joe”. What is all this too-clever contortionist thinking? 2022-01-12 02:37:43 RT @amyhoy: @zeynep many of them want good masks, but can’t afford or find them (or don’t know what to get)! @mattbc has been sending n95… 2022-01-12 02:37:23 If anything, the fact that there’s a part of the population that refuses to get vaccinated or wear masks makes it more important to empower those who’d like to up their own protections. Inform and empower the people looking for guidance and tools. It’s good politics, too. 2022-01-12 02:32:54 The amount of unnecessary overthinking and contorted logic here is baffling. How will some people wearing better masks keep the people—who aren’t going to wear masks anyway—from wearing masks? I keep seeing elderly people in NYC working indoors or shopping with substandard masks. https://t.co/tMfZ312qyw 2022-01-12 00:49:59 RT @HannahD15: Today Djokovic and the big media pack he brought with him are gone from Melbourne’s Park Hotel. But 30 refugees remain, clos… 2022-01-11 22:46:18 @Muffung @EllaFassler @motherboard Those are not clinical trials measuring efficacy, which is what the article claims. 2022-01-11 20:37:55 @BuzzJohnG @notdred @EllaFassler @motherboard Show me the efficacy trials? Even with non-public data? There are none that I can find. I have been asking around for a week. See below for what is *not* an efficacy trial. https://t.co/YUOYpb0tME 2022-01-11 20:34:46 RT @ScottGottliebMD: Data from France: Even amidst massive #Omicron wave, there’s still a lot of #delta infection reflected in patients who… 2022-01-11 18:33:00 @notdred @BuzzJohnG @EllaFassler @motherboard I hope the results are excellent! But I think harming public trust by making claims about non-existing trials aren't helpful, vaccine confidence can't be messed around with. (Also not helpful to claim incorrect things about actually working vaccines but let's let that go). 2022-01-11 18:29:44 @dylanhmorris Pretty amazing how many people have lost the plot between "I want this vaccine to succeed!" (Me too! I hope it does!) and "I'm going to make baseless claims in favor" and "also baselessly badmouth other actually working things" assumed to be competing. https://t.co/YUOYpb0tME 2022-01-11 18:22:53 @BuzzJohnG @EllaFassler @motherboard No, they have no efficacy trial that I can find. Happy to be proven wrong, but need to see it! A non-public imputation from assumed correlates of protection from non-public immunogenicity data is not an efficacy trial. Journalists should do their homework, explain their claims. 2022-01-11 18:19:12 In general, in life, too, one's thinking gets better if people can separate "this person seems like a well-meaning person and/or is opposing people I'm mad at" from "this is a factual claim I need to understand and evaluate before uncritically repeating as is". 2022-01-11 18:11:23 @EllaFassler @motherboard (Also the idea other vaccines aren't highly effective against Omicron is nonsense—all of them are reporting more breakthroughs from it given the mutations, but we have a lot of *actual* evidence of their protective wall against severity etc. holding up very well, but never mind). 2022-01-11 18:08:31 @EllaFassler @motherboard Hey could you tell me the source of this claim? I've been looking and looking and looking there is no efficacy trial for this vaccine that I can find, let alone any public data from the immunogenecity trial. How are there people reporting results from a non-existent trial? https://t.co/p0XMiXPBZ7 2022-01-11 18:01:40 @StevenBratman @murchiston @avizvizenilman Thanks. If you know anyone making that error, please do direct it to them. It's not made here or here. https://t.co/VnTRnW4Djy or https://t.co/u6xvej4Acs Never co-wrote with anyone making the claim you say they make, haven't really encountered it. Distance is not a particle size. 2022-01-11 17:44:47 @StevenBratman @murchiston @avizvizenilman I am going to leave this conversation here because I lost count of the number of times I've written or co-written short-range aerosols can dominate, but that doesn't pertain to particle size since aerosols, of course, also concentrate near the person. Not sure you're pinging me? 2022-01-11 17:36:38 @StevenBratman @murchiston @avizvizenilman Okay. I wasn't meaning it as an equation term. For your question: I am not the party to it because I do not know of anyone I wrote with who argued short-range aerosol transmission wasn't significant, or even dominant. Range is distance, aerosol is particle size/trajectory. 2022-01-11 17:09:53 @StevenBratman @murchiston @avizvizenilman Short range is a measure of *distance* not particle size or mechanism. Also short-long range is not a second-order effect, as discussed here. (Second order effect, for example, is when mask confidence leads to riskier behavior). So not sure the link to this topic? 2022-01-11 16:14:51 RT @oecodynamics: "Avoid showing equations" I was always told. But annotations can make eqs. vastly more accessible to your audience. I've… 2022-01-11 16:09:50 @KarinaMeiri @razibkhan Thank you both! I find the ideas/intersections part very interesting, but yes, for complicated political/historical reasons, sensible/factual Central Asia history was not very accessible in Turkey back when, so extra interesting to me to catch up. 2022-01-11 08:11:00 CAFIAC FIX 2022-01-06 07:01:52 RT @mikesimonsen: Really handy insight from @zeynep on the usefulness of antigen tests vs. PCR https://t.co/YHMtt4ZpBx https://t.co/q3inkzD… 2022-01-06 04:48:01 RT @perrystoll: So well said. So frustrated it needed to be said. 2022-01-06 04:11:03 @KBibbinsDomingo 2022-01-06 03:55:07 @PatrickRuffini @NickRiccardi Best explainer on all this. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI 2022-01-06 03:51:44 @PatrickRuffini @NickRiccardi It is quite possibly more severe than the original virus to people with no immunity. We don’t know for sure. Intrinsic virulence and how we experience it as hosts after billions of vaccinations and hundreds of millions of infections or more is different. 2022-01-06 03:48:31 @michaelmina_lab @JInterlandi 2022-01-06 02:27:12 RT @PhelimKine: .@zeynep nails it: "We aren’t expecting officials to have crystal balls about everything, but we want them to empower and i… 2022-01-06 02:25:20 @DKThomp *takes notes* 2022-01-06 01:43:51 @baym @jboerckel Faux precision is usually the tell but, wow 2022-01-06 01:42:14 @baym @jboerckel 2022-01-06 01:41:50 @pomeranian99 @chetwisniewski 2022-01-06 01:33:13 RT @kingdomofwench: I also have the following question: "Why aren’t we rushing to do studies to gauge the infectious period for Omicron? W… 2022-01-06 01:32:30 @YAppelbaum Well, with your amazing editing and contributions. 2022-01-06 01:31:49 RT @YAppelbaum: This @zeynep essay—published a full month before January 6—has haunted me ever since: https://t.co/ttYYaaAlPK 2022-01-06 00:56:04 @bethlinas 2022-01-06 00:54:56 @pomeranian99 You’ve invented anti-clickbait though 2022-01-06 00:46:30 @pomeranian99 You had me at “How To Cycle In The Freezing Cold”… not really. 2022-01-06 00:35:03 @SharminiFernan3 You’re welcome 2022-01-06 00:18:00 @dylanhmorris Haven’t seen any. Hopefully soon, since such transparency is extra important for vaccines that are positioning to play a bigger role in poorer countries. 2022-01-05 23:51:02 @m_soond @234SimonSays The sociology of all this is fascinating, but yes, one needs to only read a few entry level textbooks, or even Wikipedia to detect the word-salad nature of it all. But given how badly traditional authorities have failed, it's not completely surprising this can persist... for now. 2022-01-05 23:49:46 @EagleEyes_MD 2022-01-05 23:49:04 @m_soond @234SimonSays He has advanced expertise in wordsaladese, and unfortunately has conned some well-meaning people who are understandably wary of medical authorities because of failures. "234Simon" seems to have a direct connection to his brain, somehow. An interesting neurotropism, if you will. 2022-01-05 22:32:05 @taraparkerpope 2022-01-05 22:26:45 RT @annNYC100: Whole 2022-01-05 22:26:38 @alexopensky @zaynep 2022-01-05 20:46:37 @nalanpog Problem in so many academic fields! And best-selling books! 2022-01-05 19:58:55 RT @jimmyc42: How you think about the problems, determines the kind of solutions you offer. poor philosophy -> 2022-01-05 18:43:42 @ExcessiveFarce Emerging evidence that throat/saliva viral load seems to peak earlier with Omicron compared with the nose samples, and some countries do throat/nose combined swab anyway, so that would be my first consideration: doing throat+nose swabs rather than left nostril+right nostril. 2022-01-05 18:19:24 I really like the ones with foam around the nose, like 3M's Aura N95 line. They sell for $20ish for 10 and are available at Home Depot etc. I find them comfortable. Also this isn't just about me: I put them on *especially* if I'm around anyone high-risk. https://t.co/COUk9Gq3XJ 2022-01-05 17:53:26 Comment from Dr. Paltiel, co-author with Dr. Walensky of this article I talk about from September 2020 about the value of rapid antigen tests for identifying infectious people, and reasons to prefer them over PCR for public health. https://t.co/WdG4CRyS9H https://t.co/HEPH1neHY3 2022-01-05 17:19:56 @cansar Me neither 2022-01-05 16:57:13 Aka if your particle is going faster than light, check your cables first, and if you are arguing "what if better is worse", check your thinking and do some more research before doubling down. https://t.co/BCGQevGwN5 2022-01-05 16:53:26 I want to highlight @KatherineEban's great article on White House rejecting proposals to get a lot of rapid tests. Some reportedly worried it would discourage vaccination. This. Makes. No. Sense. One can find a few examples, but that's irrelevant. https://t.co/YOt9CjGBdQ https://t.co/TdPC8AfLrY 2022-01-05 16:33:54 @murchiston @avizvizenilman Aka if the particle is going faster than light, check your cables, and if you're thinking what if better is worse, check your thinking. 2022-01-05 16:32:40 @murchiston @avizvizenilman Zeynep's law: Until there is substantial and repeated evidence otherwise, assume counterintuitive findings to be false, and second-order effects to be dwarfed by first-order ones in magnitude. 2022-01-05 16:09:53 RT @maelig: Why I tell people to get an Ag test rather than PCR, particularly if they’re vaccinated: 2022-01-05 15:36:44 RT @avizvizenilman: Being honest about scarcity is a better policy than pretending the scarce resources are less useful than they are 2022-01-05 15:17:19 @Alagai Not really, not for safety features. But YOUR EXAMPLE I NUTS. But yeah almost all the examples are nuts. You can find some individual examples in high-risk extreme sports/recreation, but clearly that's very different. People jumping without parachutes are into just that. 2022-01-05 15:08:04 @samjlord What are the odds I actually know all this, having just written a piece about it. 2022-01-05 15:00:54 And here's @Bob_Wachter on all this for @PodSaveAmerica. https://t.co/5kKIAEHPPs 2022-01-05 14:56:59 @samjlord I understand the topic, know the research very well, and would like not to engage in mind-reading about what they do and don't understand that's different from their official pronouncements to the public. 2022-01-05 14:49:21 It's 2022! Disappointed with the "masks aren't useful for you because we don't have them" vibes around rapid tests, and CDC justifying it by saying tests would provide "a false sense of security". Denying tools to the public with a claim they'd otherwise be reckless isn't okay. https://t.co/FL53NEduGP 2022-01-05 14:38:32 Are you confused about the zigzagging CDC messaging on rapid tests? I wish the CDC would consult with Dr. Walensky circa 2020, who explained it brilliantly. This CDC seems to be hoping you figure things out by yourself, and good luck finding a test. New: https://t.co/lYbXrEKVT8 https://t.co/p0Ld8c5ohz 2022-01-05 03:01:56 @eco_marci 2022-01-05 01:19:57 @ModicumVeritas @heydave7 @jamesdouma @MSF_USA Thank you! 2022-01-04 21:21:32 @andrew_croxford https://t.co/pL50jN3qsR 2022-01-04 19:33:14 RT @syramadad: A recent MMWR which analyzed more than 40,000 pregnancies, adds to the evidence that COVID-19 vaccination is safe during pre… 2022-01-04 18:19:06 @dylanhmorris @Orla_Hegarty @jmcrookston Yep. The point isn't it's not measles therefore it's not airborne (a fallacy that Dylan was among the first to argue strongly against) but that the R0 of this may well not be there. You can't look at a single superspreading event either for Rt or R0, there is huge overdispersion. 2022-01-04 17:14:15 This is a good idea, especially if there are infants in the household. Viral respiratory illnesses can especially be challenging to that age group. Not sure why this isn't sinking in—we'd be worried if millions of RSV cases were sweeping through as well. https://t.co/sDHrY0QzjJ 2022-01-04 17:08:40 To remind them of the impact of vaccines, you can urge them to read biographies of people in 19th century and before—very common for families to lose multiple young children to viral illnesses. Then show them this chart on why this is no longer common. https://t.co/BDBPsfxB9b https://t.co/PHEWmhhtFX 2022-01-04 16:27:31 @MatthewMarchant I would urge you to look up upper respiratory viral illnesses in children. Being otherwise sociopathic about risk to anyone elderly or high-risk in your own family or social network is for you to deal with, I guess. 2022-01-04 16:17:13 Many have been doing [frustrated] outreach to un/under-vaccinated elderly relatives. But let me flag. It's a good time to urge parents you know to vaccinate their eligible kids. Not too late. Even one dose will confer some protection, and dampen transmission chains as well. 2022-01-04 15:53:13 @ENirenberg @dylanhmorris Man, that was a frustrating time. Went from ignoring tons of systematic data from elsewhere to overclaiming stuff from a pretty non-systematic study. TBH, no wonder there is so much confusion. 2022-01-04 15:49:53 @ENirenberg @dylanhmorris Oh, forgot. "Vaccinated can transmit just as easily" as spin. That study did not show that (since it didn't at all study if the vaccinated can transmit), plus I doubt vaccinated could transmit Delta *as easily* as unvaccinated—and maybe less divergence for Omicron, awaits data. 2022-01-04 14:52:02 @chloereichel @emilyakopp It's one of the ways. With antigenic shift, you can have other forms of transition as well. I recommend the antigenic shift explanation in this essay. (See also pandemic/non-pandemic flu 2022-01-04 14:41:52 @chloereichel @emilyakopp Yeah, still true and *that's terrible*. You realize that's not a prescription, it's a warning? We're still not vaccinating fast enough, globally. Look at what happened in South Africa. Omicron swept through with fewer deaths, but because they *already* had staggering toll. 2022-01-04 14:32:55 @ENirenberg @dylanhmorris Provincetown study got spun as "vaccines don't work" (false, it showed the opposite!) and then as "breakthroughs from the vaccinated can transmit" (claim is true but the study itself didn't show that at all—we already knew that from UK and Singapore a month ago!). It was wild. 2022-01-04 14:29:36 @BStulberg I don’t personally have to care but this kind of baseless dunking for attention really confuses people—especially when it comes from people claiming to be reporters, but not just. I usually ignore but wanted set it straight just once. 2022-01-04 14:24:42 @RobbDawson4 2022-01-04 14:18:57 @dylanhmorris Yeah, we had the data we needed on breakthrough transmission from Singapore contact-tracing, Twitter anectodes (definitely useful!), and the UK reports. Provincetown paper just showed.. an outbreak, not breakthrough transmission. We still don't do contact tracing papers much. 2022-01-04 14:17:24 Okay, one-and-done. I'm all good with actual objections and criticisms, and I tend to ignore deliberate trolling (I get the game) but just needed it put the correction out there since "reporter" claim and blue check. 2022-01-04 14:07:36 @emilyakopp @NateSilver538 I get it, but need a better Twitter game. https://t.co/j4b2b474FR 2022-01-04 13:58:43 Also, this is the article in May of 28, when Delta wasn't even named Delta, warning about it, with the very subtle headline the reporter could not read? https://t.co/UQJz9khZfQ 2022-01-04 13:56:48 Oh, yeah, forgot my July article in that same obscure paper reporter could not find, *before* the Provincetown paper or CDC finally responding to Delta, calling for vaccine mandates as appropriate and other precautions given Delta's threat. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt https://t.co/4gyHROTPMR 2022-01-04 13:53:52 And here's my "backlash" to their reaction to Delta, from my article in that obscure outlet the reporter could not find, pointing out that there had been many technical papers already showing transmission among the vaccinated—and no need to wait for the Provincetown paper. https://t.co/Q8xlantK09 2022-01-04 13:49:54 Amazing. No issues, you could criticize me for being too alarmist on Delta or something, or on any actual paper or position I wrote, but one thinks someone identifying as a *reporter* can bother, you know, looking it up as the New York Times isn't exactly obscure. 2022-01-04 13:47:25 Except I wrote one of the earliest articles—hard to miss, in the New York Times—warning about Delta *in May* and my criticism in July was that they were *too late* to react, given UK & 2022-01-04 04:46:44 @lowcoststartups Ve+ is shorthand for positive. 2022-01-03 18:16:26 @SeverineAR Congratulations and "geçmiş olsun" https://t.co/fbyiN7xVpo 2022-01-03 17:38:28 @notdred @deeptabhattacha Still like seeing preliminary results in the right direction. Hopefully this step next. https://t.co/TwoTzHKxE9 2022-01-03 17:37:28 @notdred @deeptabhattacha https://t.co/57kaB9dcQ6 2022-01-03 17:33:12 @notdred https://t.co/GthKhqKCgP 2022-01-03 15:22:41 Here’s a good thread with specifics. There’s a world beyond “it’s not March 2020”, “is it with or from?” and “stop living in fear.” You have a wave like this, it produces a lot of outcomes that need active management. https://t.co/6Qyl7AJI8A 2022-01-03 03:37:19 @swapneilparikh Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. That would be too sane. 2022-01-03 03:36:41 @jbarro Hospitals have a lot of staff out sick, schools will have teachers out sick, subways will have delays from staff out sick, anyone who returns to office will have outbreaks, and some small number of those do end up in ERs/hospitals, meanwhile childcare is a big issue, etc. 2022-01-03 03:34:52 @jbarro The good part is that this wave is producing fewer severe patients, fewer of whom end up in the ICU and fewer of those end up on ventilators. And “elective” surgeries are often important! But the number of people out sick is huge on so many sectors and it connects up. 2022-01-03 03:27:11 @THAToneil Other places may have lower density advantages, and less dependence on shared infrastructure. Yeah, still need a plan. 2022-01-03 03:24:26 Yeah. That’s my conclusion as well. https://t.co/fmxT8PvvBe 2022-01-03 03:21:21 Say what? I went to see plays in NYC parks. In fact Merry Wives by Public Theater was so good that I went twice. This caricature some people have of many people living in fear is that often the opposite of truth. I’m aware, though, how stretched-thin hospitals are. https://t.co/HmoCZYv68t 2022-01-03 03:09:22 Yeah. I totally don’t understand is “living in fear” talking point. Infrastructure stress and failure is not about personal risk tolerance. https://t.co/E6wbjO0ZWR 2022-01-03 02:47:42 One’s personal views on one’s personal risk are largely irrelevant to a crisis of infrastructure, though. Yes by all means people should get vaccinated, get boosters, and vaccinate children. https://t.co/a9aMtcyfNd 2022-01-03 02:45:41 @David_desJ OK try not to get appendicitis next month. 2022-01-03 02:43:59 I get the importance of this question but it’s not just that. Hospitals just cannot keep up with staffing. Plus, there’s enough hospitalized “from”—almost all from the vaccinated to add. And hospital workers have family members sick, and their subway out and childcare collapsing. https://t.co/sP41xdYhdt 2022-01-03 02:37:31 There is a point at which exponential math takes over policy preferences. I don’t understand how this isn’t obvious two years into this pandemic. 2022-01-03 02:32:58 NYC at ~50,000 known cases per day. I’d guess as many from untracked rapid tests—and who knows how many untested. ~25% test positivity. Yes hospitalization rate is very low but a small % of a huge number is big. Decision is what gets disrupted in an orderly vs. disorderly manner. https://t.co/S9sJA0ih8i 2022-01-02 19:40:30 @fvbddghffy @MacaesBruno All the "I can't tell if this is biting satire" points to you! 2022-01-02 19:22:42 @OnlyTheTru1 @MacaesBruno Better or worse than the Inquisition isn't the bar for 21st century. 2022-01-02 19:21:27 @MacaesBruno Honestly don't even know what to say to such assertions. 2022-01-02 19:20:46 @MacaesBruno What logic of uniformity? Shared jurisprudence isn't imposed uniformity (though group-membership based ones will be!). And also, you know stuff happened in Europe after WWII? You think post-WWII liberal Europe was less pluralistic and less free than the Ottoman millet system? 2022-01-02 18:15:03 @radumanolescu @MacaesBruno Federalism has tensions but unlike the millet system, it is subject to *elections* at the federal and state level, and is superseded by the national law and institutions, both of which make it nothing like the millet system. How is this not obvious? 2022-01-02 18:05:47 @radumanolescu @MacaesBruno Ah, great, so people get to switch jurisprudence at will? Husband gets bored of wife, switches to bigamy jurisprudence, borrower decides to switch to usury is not allowed. Opportunists set up "everything goes" jurisprudences as they want. Excellent pluralism. 2022-01-02 17:50:45 @radumanolescu @MacaesBruno So, banning rights for subgroups that one is stuck in by virtue of birth or community is now a superior form of pluralism to one based on individual rights in liberal societies? I think a month in such a society in the wrong group would cure people of this absurd delusion. 2022-01-02 17:33:07 @radumanolescu @MacaesBruno That’s not pluralism. Multiple theocracies isn’t pluralism. How is this even complicated? 2022-01-02 17:23:37 @MacaesBruno You would like the religious authorities in whichever group I was born into to have absolute power over me and have a hierarchy of rights between different religious groups? As superior to liberal societies for pluralism??? 2022-01-02 17:21:34 @MacaesBruno Excuse me? 2022-01-02 17:17:22 @thehanli My guess is overwhelmingly vaccinated since it was my poll. 2022-01-02 17:05:23 @jessecouk @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Yeah. I think cutting quarantine period makes sense in some settings. I’m in NYC, and it’s essentially all Omicron mist so not sure “don’t go grocery shopping even with a mask” will hold things back. Still, it’s an example of “no evidence that” being interpreted as “it is not”. 2022-01-02 16:58:20 @baym @jessecouk @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Moving on, we now have “no evidence that the bright red line that appears immediately on that antigen test on day six corresponds to infectivity.” If we haven’t studied this *almost two years in*, not sure the interpretation is that “it does not” rather than “don’t know for sure” 2022-01-02 16:55:35 @baym @jessecouk @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Worse, actively deny it for about another year or so, and then kinda quietly acknowledge it with the lingering result that schools have tons of plexiglass (makes ventilation worse, associated with higher infection risks) etc. 2022-01-02 16:46:55 @jessecouk @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers So I agree it would have been difficult at first but… Acknowledging reality is the first step to marshalling those resources. Also, negative pressure rooms weren’t used widely elsewhere, but N95s were which makes sense. Our understanding of airborne needed updating, too. 2022-01-02 16:36:27 @baym @jessecouk @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Yes, it wasn’t pleasant as a thought, but I think it would have been very helpful. The countries that did exactly that early on are doing so much better now. And so many health-care worker deaths around the world. It’s not like we avoided the consequences. 2022-01-02 16:33:29 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Definitely, making our way would be hard, so many unknowns and uncertainty. But I was reading epi papers from Japan in February 2020 that nailed every crucial aspect: overdispersion, airborne, presymptomatic transmission. They were public! Anyway… 2022-01-02 16:32:24 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Literally the first January Nature paper on the virus says “good to assume airborne” (I paraphrase), same month Chinese health minister is giving press conferences pleading “watch for presymptomatic transmission”, China is using airborne PPE in hospitals etc. All by January 2020. 2022-01-02 16:30:18 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers Yeah. Any mask is better than no mask (which started as a recommendation, given the dire shortage for health-care workers) somehow turned into “no difference between masks” the guidance seems to be unable to move from. It’s baffling. It’s 2022! 2022-01-02 16:28:48 @ENirenberg @baym @VaccineJo @vlamers Don’t want to rehash! But by summer 2020, I think it was extremely hard to make the case for droplets being dominant, from the epi. That said, at a minimum, equipoise was called for. WHO didn’t recommend universal masks indoors till December 2020–distance was said to be enough. 2022-01-02 16:27:03 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers I also remember the “no evidence that infection will confer any immunity” in Spring/Summer of 2020. I guess hitherto study and science of other viruses and all the other human HCoV wasn’t evidence? Weirdly atheoretical stance. 2022-01-02 16:24:54 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers If anything pre/asymptomatic transmission also fits selective empricism. The lone ship doctor at Diamond Princess—ordinarily attending to hangovers etc.—had concluded presymptomatic transmission was driving cases by February 9, 2020. Epi papers from China stated it outright, too. 2022-01-02 16:22:34 @baym @ENirenberg @VaccineJo @vlamers I don’t disagree—a lot of “no evidence that” was “we don’t know, yet”—but the process by which airborne transmission kinda sorta finally got acknowledged also shows a strong tendency to *reject* empirical data as valid until it became overwhelming. It’s more selective empiricism. 2022-01-02 16:07:33 Results: 43% report still testing positive on antigen tests on day 8 or later (that’s day 9 by CDC definition—they count from day 0). I ran the poll because of the pile of anectodes of lengty ve+ period, all from 2x and 3x vaxxed people. This is informal, but clearly a thing. https://t.co/H6oRJR77Lm 2022-01-02 15:08:19 RT @dampscribbler: She's posting screenshots of the running results in the thread. 2022-01-02 03:21:23 @PrasadKasibhat1 @mugecevik Seems bimodal than overdispersed—from anecdotes as well. Whatever the reason for it, the tail doesn’t seem like that tiny a number, and would be nice if there was some more targeted, contextual and empirically-based guidance for them. 2022-01-02 02:32:04 @ScienceShared @polejit @jackiecassell @mugecevik Symptoms resolved and then 48 hours? Or day five and if symptoms resolved? Also many report congestion and/or sore throat but no fever. So very mild, but dark red test, turns positive instantly—into day 8, 9… Probably irrelevant for groceries in NYC but not for elderly visits. 2022-01-02 00:27:24 @polejit @ScienceShared @jackiecassell @mugecevik Yeah. We aren’t doing such triage messaging here. 2022-01-02 00:26:22 @Hubb57 It’s not because people are using tests. Many countries give people enough tests. 2022-01-02 00:25:39 @lindaschaos Too civilized 2022-01-02 00:04:43 @polejit @ScienceShared @jackiecassell @mugecevik In the United States, that is not the message coming from top public health officials. 2022-01-01 23:10:55 @ScienceShared @jackiecassell @mugecevik Sure, though those are harder to come by. All evidence would be great. Right now people want to know if they should see their grandparents if they’re still antigen positive on day seven or eight or nine. Or what should nursing home policy should be? 2022-01-01 22:32:01 I see “Without downloading any new pics, what’s your energy going into 2022?” is making the quote tweet rounds. Okay I admit, I downloaded this right before I saw that line, but it works. https://t.co/HgRKKe8JMK 2022-01-01 21:54:03 I’ll post updated results regularly for the curious and will delete/replace them. Yes it is informal, but please don’t skew the results just to see them! Also: I’m obviously *not* commenting on frequent testing. I know some people do, because of work or personal circumstances. https://t.co/g1UJ0ncqbe 2022-01-01 21:16:04 @CynthiaFlynn15 30% negative when? 2022-01-01 21:01:11 @jackiecassell @mugecevik And, yes, it would be good if we could tell people something data-driven about *viable* virus kinetics for this variant. 2022-01-01 21:00:33 @jackiecassell @mugecevik Lots of people test frequently for work and contact with vulnerable people and because of the burdens of isolation so I’m not going to blame them for why we are short of tests, especially since many other countries seem to manage this even under the Omicron load. 2022-01-01 20:50:42 @mugecevik Otoh lots of people are also reporting very quick clearing on tests. Maybe it is indeed bimodal. 2022-01-01 20:49:20 @mugecevik I’m hoping there’s a study soon of viral load kinetics for Omicron. I did the survey because of many anectodal reports of ve+ people well into day 8-9 and beyond even among vaccinated/boosted, seems bimodal. Especially a question for people working with vulnerable populations. 2022-01-01 19:14:03 @MarcJBrooker It’s bimodal! Had the slight suspicion it might be somewhat bimodal but much more so than I suspected. But excellent question really, and I did think a while about it given I had only four bins! 2022-01-01 19:06:38 @David_desJ I hope people aren’t doing such extreme mental gymnastics to over-interpret a simple question on a platform with character limits and no edits, and that people that invested in my non-opinion on that part read down the thread. 2022-01-01 18:09:38 RT @CKJohnsonBk: Important survey! Another important survey embedded in thread. 2022-01-01 17:06:35 @ChadErven https://t.co/paqeKmHiwk 2022-01-01 17:03:30 @sarahkliff @benyt I’m hearing surprising a lot of that. Also people testing negative fast, for sure. Whatever it means, doesn’t seem to match the Delta trajectory. 2022-01-01 16:49:59 @PatAndriola Two for $24. 2022-01-01 16:46:10 @seanogallagher No good info! 2022-01-01 16:45:31 @PatAndriola Where do you get strip only tests? 2022-01-01 16:44:56 @pkafka That’s what many countries do, and CDC said until recently. But the reverse question is also true, not just testing out. If you test positive, and especially if you work with vulnerable populations—elderly or patients—what should you do? What should you be able to do? 2022-01-01 16:26:10 @PooterheadPharm @seanogallagher Oh come on. It’s not their fault. 2022-01-01 16:15:43 @danielradosh I know. I found that confusing so this poll counts the way many seem to do. 2022-01-01 16:11:05 Sorry didn’t have enough options. I will occasionally post them. https://t.co/xPFUAiZbW5 2022-01-01 16:10:11 @pkafka Yes but, again, not everyone works from home. Some people interact with vulnerable populations. Some work and travel and need more precision. Many have burdensome isolation setups. For some, set number of days has issues. I wasn’t asking people who didn’t test, or need to test. 2022-01-01 16:04:42 @pkafka Lots of countries do test out of isolation. Some workplaces too, for out and in. Wouldn’t be surprised if people tested, sometimes to decide to stay in isolation. 2022-01-01 16:02:34 Indeed. For this subset, I don’t mean you for this survey but likely small enough a group. Still, feel free to reply in the mentions. https://t.co/na3PglqjK2 2022-01-01 15:59:04 Also, if you tested positive with an at-home test. Did you report it anywhere? 2022-01-01 15:53:22 @pkafka Back to work. End isolation. See people. Curiosity. Not everyone works from home. 2022-01-01 15:52:23 @subatomicdoc @CDCgov Good idea! 2022-01-01 15:51:59 @cameronmattis Yeah hearing a surprising amount of that. 2022-01-01 15:51:05 Antigen. Not sure if anyone is getting daily/frequent PCR testing. Outside of very specialized settings, perhaps, wouldn’t seem like a good idea. https://t.co/5qMfQvlsIb 2022-01-01 15:46:25 Informal survey! People who got infected and were able to test frequently during this recent Omicron wave. On what day did you stop testing positive? (Day 1=first symptoms or first positive, whichever sooner. If no symptoms, day of ve+ test). Please RT! Tests pics welcome! 2022-01-01 15:12:34 @samdolnick Collector’s edition! 2022-01-01 06:38:01 @neicolec Thank you! 2022-01-01 05:35:28 @Craig_A_Spencer My neighbor just said to me, happy new year, here’s to lower expectations. 2022-01-01 05:24:13 @eldahshan Same! 2022-01-01 04:52:43 @sina_lana Pretty! Green in winter! 2022-01-01 04:49:40 @gmokery Sounds, umm. Invigorating. *reaches for the remote control* 2022-01-01 04:47:52 @deadprogrammer I am getting an idea about the durability of that regime. 2022-01-01 04:44:44 And, again, much graditude especially to people working at an ER somewhere in the world today, and thanks to everyone who participated in this fundraiser for Doctors Without Borders. Here’s to a better 2022! https://t.co/3iRMlrd7T3 2022-01-01 04:41:46 More power to everyone running that four mile race in Central Park, starting soon. I’m pretty close to the route. I’m going to go out and see where I can cheer them on. Definitely not running, though. Happy New Year! (And @ProMED_mail, please no emails till tomorrow!) 2022-01-01 04:37:20 Here’s the first one from 1980. Just a few months after a military coup. (It’s Turkey so part of our “tradition” to have a few here and there). It wasn’t an easy time, by any means. People still did seek and find joy, something to look forward to. https://t.co/GlstNhQgD5 2022-01-01 04:34:28 I have since learned that there is a four mile race at Central Park in NYC, starting at the stroke of midnight at NYE. I mean, more power to them. Amazing. Sounds very cheerful and healthy and good. I know many celebrations are muted this year, pandemic and all. 2022-01-01 04:26:52 It became a thing, part of the NYE traditions. Like fireworks. This is the 1983 one. The first few years were all Nesrin Topkapi, a legend, really. It didn’t happen on TV any other day of the year. Just on that that day, at midnight. https://t.co/SfcliWnpMz 2022-01-01 04:23:03 So one interesting NYE tradition in Turkey. Yes, some celebrate it—with atree and gifts. Like a non-religious Xmas, but on NYE. With a twist. Belly dancer. On TV. At midnight. Started in 1980. Only state TV then. One channel. Then they allowed this. https://t.co/iXqTTn2Due 2022-01-01 04:05:35 @KashPrime @jljcolorado Indeed! Happy new year! 2022-01-01 04:04:19 @AbraarKaran @sri_srikrishna @RanuDhillon Happy new year! 2022-01-01 04:01:19 @sree @yenmep Thank you! And happy new year! 2022-01-01 03:41:57 @goldman Happy parents of young kids new years eve! 2022-01-01 03:31:15 @DrMiguelPerales @wanderer_jasnah 2022-01-01 03:28:13 @mariaressa @rapplerdotcom Congratulations. And a happy new year! 2022-01-01 03:27:01 Still going. A few more hours in 2021, and thankful to so many for participating. I hoped my $20k seed would maybe get us to six figures. It’s now at $536k, all going to Doctors Without Borders. An extra thank you to so many working at an ER tonight.https://t.co/pQcSdVglMd 2022-01-01 03:21:52 @AveryCockburn Thank you! 2022-01-01 02:24:18 RT @IngridKatzMD: Still chills about this one. @HelenBranswell is incredibly modest here - she has been a leader on reporting on every angl… 2022-01-01 02:05:54 @arshiaanwer Best of luck in the new year. 2022-01-01 00:46:29 @notdred Yeah in many places. The extra problem is many people need the test for work—antigen home test isn’t accepted even if you can find one. So now they’re indoors for a long time with many Covid patients. The test may come negative, but they are now more likely to turn positive soon. 2022-01-01 00:12:46 RT @pekikimkibu: What a great start to the new year! May there be no need for health fundraisers anymore (though I know it’s almost like as… 2021-12-31 23:36:02 @hosenpants Thank you. Same to you as well! 2021-12-31 23:21:56 @vicentes Thank you, again! 2021-12-31 22:58:14 @lilymanx 2021-12-31 22:56:03 RT @AugustJPollak: I remember years ago having to watch this clip in a comedy class as an example of observing your audience for escalation… 2021-12-31 22:29:57 Thank you! cc:@whale_alert https://t.co/YNhqhWY3gA 2021-12-31 22:28:14 @pekikimkibu Thank you! Indeed. 2021-12-31 22:09:04 Amazing! We've met the goal! 1360 people participated and still going. Just had another match drop as well, for another $10K. $162K in donations being matched. I'm out of emojis here. Good to exceed a goal when it's all doing good. Thank you! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-31 21:19:48 @jljcolorado 2021-12-31 19:42:18 @benadamx Thank you! 2021-12-31 19:42:00 @pburka Yeah, the dude has long ago lost the plot. 2021-12-31 19:11:20 @davecoopcourier Thank you! You, too! 2021-12-31 19:00:39 So close to the goal. Sooo close. Donate below, or DM me to match to get this campaign over the finish line on its last day! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/b45nrLbShy 2021-12-31 18:43:03 This is hilarious. That's not how language works. "Brandon" is supposed to be a *euphemism*. It doesn't work if you *also* use the phrase you are allegedly avoiding and keep cursing at the same time as you wield "Brandon". https://t.co/4BiwMqrLJT 2021-12-31 18:35:04 @JMGrohNeuro @danielperrin04 Here it is! https://t.co/HkffabtkHT 2021-12-31 18:19:31 @eighty206 Thank you! 2021-12-31 18:19:16 @ianandbike Thank you! 2021-12-31 17:23:14 RT @michaelzlin: Interesting study showing an inactivated vax + RNA booster has narrower response (less broadening from Wuhan to Omicron va… 2021-12-31 17:05:03 The pandemic is terrible, but in many fragile places in the world, it means even less resources for ongoing crises. Burundi faces endemic malaria. There are victims of violence who need treatment. COVID vaccination rate is almost 0%. MSF is on the ground. That's kind of it. https://t.co/AuUXTvchdo 2021-12-31 16:58:48 I wish we didn't have to fundraise for basic stuff but.. UN says it has to cut food aid to Yemen—lack of funds. Things are so bad that MSF has a feeding hospital—to treat severely malnourished kids. It's operating at 100% capacity. Still not enough. https://t.co/g4kTeZYAq8 2021-12-31 16:21:13 Folks, it's the last day of the year. And this campaign is almost at its goal. *Almost*. Last day of nudging. A few more people stepping up, and we will have raised a significant amount that goes to vital needs. DM me to raise the match. Donate: https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/KahcmbHZbO 2021-12-31 07:17:50 RT @lizziemaef: Great organization, great cause. Donate now to help MSF do their important work in Yemen & 2021-12-31 05:30:47 Officially less than one day left, and definitely less than one #Bitcoin left to goal for this campaign. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-31 05:06:51 If you have been testing frequently with rapid antigen tests, Dr. Glass is accepting photos to plot them as the line evolves—if she doesn't get overwhelmed. https://t.co/z1joXUwl9F 2021-12-31 04:36:45 @kirannazish 2021-12-31 03:53:57 Thank you so much. Really appreciate it! 2021-12-31 03:11:21 So, there have been more match contributions, so now about $152K of your donations to this campaign are being matched! And, umm, just about one #bitcoin left to reaching the target. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-31 02:43:25 @jjhoutman Thank you! 2021-12-31 01:56:46 @EL_Apostrophe @MarkLevineNYC I have a better idea, let's use data and facts. South Africa had a massive COVID death wave before, and thus had a lot of prior immunity, tragically. So they *already* got hospitalized and died in large numbers, to the degree few people were completely seronegative. 2021-12-31 01:52:12 Many of us do have some begrudging respect for people who we think are absolutely wrong, but sincere in their beliefs—to the degree they pay the price. Not so much for hypocrisy. Anyway, here's my soundcloud for the year: https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/KahcmbHZbO 2021-12-31 01:45:37 In fact, it sounds like it would be great publicity for the veracity of this belief, no? How many high-ranking GOP politicians, their families, or Fox news personalities are ready to *voluntarily* tell us how and why they are refusing booster shots? Walk the talk. 2021-12-31 01:19:22 I have a suggestion: could all GOP senators kindly voluntarily inform us of their own booster status? Similarly for GOP Congresspeople: could they voluntarily disclose their own, and if they agree, their parents' booster status? Asking for *voluntary* disclosure, for clarity. https://t.co/j9tZb5hqsL 2021-12-31 01:14:02 RT @MarkLevineNYC: Who is filling up the hospitals in NYC as omicron surges? Answer: it's still the unvaccinated. They are now *32* times… 2021-12-31 01:10:18 This is so true... Your network is not a random representation of reality. https://t.co/e6Nny5FD1D 2021-12-31 01:02:08 @PeterHotez Are you planning to apply for an EUA in the US, Professor Hotez? Sounds like it would be an excellent step, especially since the robust and transparent process for approval in the United States can help engender confidence globally, thus broaden the reach of this vaccine. 2021-12-31 00:57:03 @psbx Thank you! 2021-12-31 00:32:26 @JeffreyASachs You need a "not that one" in your name. 2021-12-31 00:29:11 So, I just checked! 1150 people participated in this campaign, so far! Each one appreciated—it takes all the contributions to make these things work at this scale. And so many messages! Reading all of them. With just one day to go! DM to add to match. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-31 00:10:54 @rfutrick That's wonderful, thank you. 2021-12-31 00:10:21 @dylanhmorris As we found out, trust in vaccines is the cornerstone of vaccination—not less important at times than supply—and approvals by the efficacy & 2021-12-31 00:07:19 @dylanhmorris That said, I would welcome an EUA application for this vaccine in the US since it would mean high-quality trial data would need to be made public, and hence ease any worries that poorer countries were getting vaccines without the same level of transparency or proof of efficacy. 2021-12-30 23:40:33 RT @ImYuanZeng: 2 years ago today, Doctor Li Wenliang sounded the alarm about coronavirus and was reprimanded for “rumourmongering”... If… 2021-12-30 21:58:46 RT @JamesEKHildreth: At less than therapeutic Molnupiravir concentrations (missed pills, not taking whole treatment course) mutations are n… 2021-12-30 21:30:02 @i_petersen I would be thrilled to have some of my tax dollars go to such research. In the US, NIH has a huge budget, and funds a lot of complicated research (which is great). This is a widespread folk-practice around the world, and likely would be much cheaper than a drug trial. 2021-12-30 21:28:06 This MSF campaign is inching up, thanks to so many of you! A big goal, but so close! And just one more day in the year. We can turn pixels on a screen or numbers on a paper statement into healthcare for many, at a time pandemic has reduced resources. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-30 21:16:22 @ScottGottliebMD @NateSilver538 My queendom for log charts. 2021-12-30 20:01:16 @ScottGottliebMD @EricTopol You follow him on Twitter. 2021-12-30 18:41:44 @jbakcoleman Wait what the original text of that got published where what like the initial screenshot? Oh, my. 2021-12-30 18:32:58 @jbakcoleman Please do! This is really fun stuff. "Because the mode of a distribution is not really a good summary in high dimensions" is one of those, holy shit, of course it's true but people ignore it kinda things, i.e. useful and fun. 2021-12-30 18:22:44 So @bgurley has agreed to match an *additional* $50K in donations! Now, $151k of donations to this campaign supporting Doctors Without Borders, especially their work in Yemen and Burundi, are being matched. DM me to add to this match! Campaign below! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-30 18:05:31 @jbarro Not with Omicron breakthroughs, though. Plus, cruise ships are more elderly people (though healthy enough to go on cruises!). It's the population where you expect a slightly more portion of breakthroughs to progress to severe disease, and you are nowhere near a hospital. 2021-12-30 17:59:27 @jbakcoleman That is a great blog post! 2021-12-30 17:56:57 @jbarro The spread on the Diamond Princess in February of 2020 looked like New York now, and that strain was maybe R0~=2-3 times compared to what we have now, likely above 10? Those cruises may have been out there without having gotten an Omicron person on board. I'd wait a bit. 2021-12-30 17:42:09 @jbarro Shared ventilation. It’s the way they’re built. 2021-12-30 17:16:39 @jdportes It is not irrational, though a trial could uncover harms. (The studies we do have on this tend to find no effect or mild benefit (though usually underpowered) so I think harm is less likely in this case, but not so for all folk-remedies. 2021-12-30 17:13:12 @juanludlow That one has been repeatedly trialed, no convincing evidence of any benefit. Dexa and fluvoxamine, the other way around. 2021-12-30 17:03:16 By the way, why rigorously test folk-remedies? First: sometimes there’s unintended harm you can uncover only through proper trial. Second: if beneficial, yeay! Third: if no effect found? It seems that the placebo benefit is essentially unshakable, so no harm in finding no effect. 2021-12-30 16:54:07 We have a match of $1 from @snmishra, and so a nice palindrome number: $101k of donations to this campaign are being matched. DM me to add to the matches, donate below. (And sorry about the typo/scare in the first tweet! Still in 2021!) https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-30 16:48:41 @mucha_carlos That one goes in the don’t mess with placebo/nocebo folder. 2021-12-30 16:42:04 Just because I find rigorous testing of folk-remedies interesting… Someone could do a quasi-experiment by using rapid tests like this, but with some folks using rinse/gargle, some not, and also do before/after comparisons (after waiting an hour or so, as per test instructions). https://t.co/LNm022SkzY 2021-12-30 16:30:17 RT @laleh_joon: If you’re making any end-of-year charitable donations, consider this one for MSF in Yemen and Burundi. 2021-12-30 15:52:12 Eek. Also *to 2022. Not in 2022. https://t.co/aNA24ff91p 2021-12-30 15:51:06 @vetdocadam EEK *to 2021-12-30 15:49:31 Here’s the reality. After years of war, Yemen faces persistent hunger, and widespread and severe malnourishment among children. Meager food aid has *just* been cut—it lacks funding. Barely makes the news. MSF is on the ground, feeding and treating these children. That’s it. https://t.co/4IKfEH0TPf 2021-12-30 15:14:51 My Doctors Without Borders fundraiser, supporting Yemen and Burundi, now has $100K of donations matched. So I upped the goal. Everyone deserves healthcare. Two more days left in 2022. Anyone want to increase the match? DM me. Want to donate? https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/2BjXYMZ0Vu https://t.co/YQ4wddf59Q 2021-12-30 15:02:13 @AmyBaxterMD @AartikSarma Thank you. I’m just surprised there aren’t more/bigger trials on this. It’s one of those things that should be possible to test for, and why not? 2021-12-30 15:00:45 @literaryeric Nothing. Because the United States has not actually locked down in any meaningful sense in any comparative scheme. I don’t think the word means anything really. 2021-12-30 04:35:16 RT @RebeccaRHelm: "BIGGER THAN A SOCCER BALL" I've been studying jellyfish for 12 years and this is a first for me! This stunning box jelly… 2021-12-30 02:47:44 @mimeisthai98 @Blank75531804 @entirelyuseles Can you please drop me from this? Thanks. 2021-12-30 02:32:17 @MomOfNandC @methanoJen @P_J_Buckhaults Oh wow, thank you! I hope this transfer can happen. :-D 2021-12-30 02:26:30 *she sorry for the missing e! 2021-12-30 02:24:06 @methanoJen @P_J_Buckhaults That linear line is amazing. Maybe someone nearby can give you a few. Thanks for doing this! 2021-12-30 02:23:22 This is fascinating. See the linear relationship. Also she's run out of tests—maybe we could get a few more to her to keep this going. There's more sh could plot. She's in Atlanta, Georgia. @michaelmina_lab https://t.co/QfyD9FiiXw 2021-12-30 02:20:32 @ignace That is March 2020 2021-12-30 02:16:47 @methanoJen @michaelmina_lab 2021-12-30 02:16:02 @methanoJen @P_J_Buckhaults Where are you? Maybe we could get you one. :-D 2021-12-30 00:49:24 Btw, I asked out of curiosity, and I know this is a common folk-remedy in some cultures but... just in case anyone is encountering this with a practical mindset. DO NOTE THE FOLLOWING. Rinsing nasal passages with tap/contaminated water has real risks! https://t.co/8DGkObw1kH 2021-12-30 00:32:30 @kayfourbee Yeah need to ask a serious drinker for that 2021-12-30 00:31:45 @kenmhaggerty No, but I remembered that incident (a while back) after recently noticing it is a big, almost standard, part of hygiene recommendations in Japan and was just curious about the evidentiary basis. 2021-12-30 00:29:43 @hollow_cries Yeah, exactly, I can imagine overdoing it etc. but I have found no study that found harm--usually mild positive. 2021-12-30 00:29:11 @kayfourbee Ah, yes, but doesn't work unless it comes with some vermouth, bitters, ice and a cherry. 2021-12-30 00:26:39 I have the most sincere respect for the power of both placebo and nocebo—aka don't mess with folk medicine—but I can't help but get curious about trials for things with plausibility, like this. 2021-12-30 00:21:27 @aledeniz @iscel That's an amazing photo 2021-12-30 00:18:49 Okay, here's a 2019 study. Same encouraging findings, same small sample, same "need a bigger trial" recommendation. https://t.co/dn3sEuS7N9 https://t.co/YP39ZOkIiW 2021-12-30 00:17:43 @microlabdoc Interesting! 2021-12-30 00:15:06 @saturday_mark @mickeykats Placebos and nocebos both can work even when you know what they are! 2021-12-30 00:14:19 @plazmodijum Only if it comes along with lemon juice, syrup, Angostura bitters and egg white. 2021-12-30 00:11:36 And here's a preprint. It has a positive finding, but do note it is tiny sample and there is no for-real control group—just comparison to national rates of hospitalization. https://t.co/lzv1xVMFB3 https://t.co/OkDpVeQCED https://t.co/4lzlnxfvJY 2021-12-30 00:09:32 Okay, adding the reviews we do have, and one COVID related preprint coming up. https://t.co/qeEtqeniCY 2021-12-30 00:06:30 @AartikSarma Yeah, seeing very little systematic evidence. Just got sent this for COVID-19 2021-12-30 00:02:09 @LanceStein Yes, I know it's a big thing in Japan, and in fact, that fact is what reminded me of this topic recently. 2021-12-30 00:00:21 @pbleic It can be done so easily though. Harmless, sure, but wouldn't you want to know? I think the correct answer is there is no big money in it in the end, and academics don't like studying simpler stuff. 2021-12-29 23:58:34 @mickeykats Yeah, exactly. Some of them sound very bogus, and some of it are nocebo/placebo but I am always curious about them. 2021-12-29 23:57:37 @DavidAScales If it works, it can do a lot of good at low risk and low cost. If it doesn't, meh, we know and it won't stop people anyway from the ritual aspect of it. I'm just amazed it doesn't get studied since no drug to sell. 2021-12-29 23:56:28 @specterm Yeah, the doctor I heard this from was the only one who didn't fight me when I asked for a culture before being given the antibiotic (long story—I have some terrible medical history of being given wrong ones) so I remember making a "maybe something" mental note. 2021-12-29 23:54:53 @DavidAScales You can't blind it unless you are testing the solution, but why not make one group do some other can't hurt intervention anyway? One group gargles, other group washes face, something. 2021-12-29 23:51:28 Alright, we have a 2015 review and the answer is maybe yes but don't know. Only 5 randomized studies ever done, apparently. (Found some mild benefit but with so few, hard to tell either way). I always wonder why such common claims don't get trialed more. https://t.co/PvGaK55YxE 2021-12-29 23:43:07 I was thinking about it not just because Omicron is more upper-respiratory, but just that mechanical processes are probably not as interesting for research & 2021-12-29 23:40:44 Genuine question. I once had a medical doctor who swore by saline nose/throat gargling for upper respiratory tract illnesses—he was a by the book, orthodox, evidence-based doc. I did not research it. Anyone know the evidentiary status of his claim? I did not see a recent review. 2021-12-29 23:13:21 @villagerssn Paper was on t-cell immune response, not at all about virulence, so not sure if we're referring to the same thing. I don't think it was is optimistic or pessimistic. If T-cell response is largely preserved, and the result can be observed from the epi data, that's just a fact. 2021-12-29 23:01:51 @villagerssn I don't understand this optimism/pessimism framing to be honest. The facts are neither. 2021-12-29 22:51:20 Also, it's not a surprise but... it's always the real life epi curve that tells the most fundamental story. I mean, yes, of course, but still. Amazing. 2021-12-29 20:37:18 @fireballfilms @mrmistmonster @GeofftheJohnson The immune system is just as natural when it functions after vaccines, and acquiring immunity without the risk of infection is clearly a better path. Please drop me from this conversation, so deeply insulting to the suffering in South Africa from this virus. 2021-12-29 20:36:00 @fireballfilms @mrmistmonster @GeofftheJohnson This is so disrespectful, Brendan—South Africa had an incredibly high death toll, to acquire what you are calling "natural" immunity. They paid the huge price, therefore saying it is "better" is incredibly insulting—if they had been vaccinated, many more would have survived. 2021-12-29 19:11:24 RT @sigallab: This is an important study looking at the T cell response to Omicron - not much escape there. Happy to have played a part in… 2021-12-29 19:07:52 Another important result from South Africa, fitting well with the epidemiological data we are observing. https://t.co/QiXZswNRQH 2021-12-29 18:43:32 @MobyMax Hey, are cancellation scams part of your business plan? People cancel but keep getting charged, and no refund when they finally notice because of credit card charges. 2021-12-29 18:39:47 @weskerfoot I think many pre-prints are fine, heck even twitprints can be good, as long as some review is done and sharing is done carefully, and also peer reviewed papers aren't infallible either. 2021-12-29 18:21:27 The problem is the next step, that viral thread about the zombie virus. There are enough real concerns, and yes, do keep an eye on all findings. I get it, people don't know who to trust and it is very confusing. Still, it makes it even more important to tweet carefully, imo. 2021-12-29 18:18:46 It's appropriate for a medical team to submit putative singular results to a pub, even if they don't prove anything by themselves and even if the Sars-CoV-2 is likely not the root cause of a chain of terrible health crises. I mean, better to know, just in case—to watch in others. 2021-12-29 18:16:52 Anti-faves in this genre are studies in genetically-modified mice presented as if representative to humans—forget that it's mice, it's not even *mice* mice, and the autopsy of (poor) kid with prior encephalopathy likely due to prior viral meningitis presented as SARS-CoV-2 proof. 2021-12-29 18:09:59 Scroll up to see a study being shared with alarm without explaining the specifics actually means once you read the paper in detail, and why. Not a day goes by when I don't see a paper go viral this way, then I read the paper and go.. oh. That's what it was. https://t.co/gn8wnC8y0V 2021-12-29 16:50:55 @SuperPACman_ @EricTopol Hence the value of household studies. 2021-12-29 16:50:13 RT @ashishkjha: CDC should have included a negative antigen tests to end isolation They didn't Now some are justifying that decision by t… 2021-12-29 16:33:32 RT @EricTopol: A study of nearly 12,000 households in Denmark shows a marked reduction of Omicron transmission among people who had a 3rd (… 2021-12-29 15:42:27 @mugecevik @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha @chrislhayes @NathanGrubaugh What do you think of test-to-stay for schools? Also the US rule doesn’t distinguish between vaccinated or unvaccinated. 2021-12-29 14:43:33 One more match from @ericries for $20K, and a few more anonymous ones, and we ARE UP TO $100K of donations being matched! Yeay. Thank you! Donate below or DM me for increasing the match. A few days to go! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/7q9vTrYNQ9 2021-12-29 13:53:31 @CatherineLynneW I would pick fit over filter between those choices, but you might want to shop around for a better fit KN95 or consider layering. I have an N95 brand that fits me very well, but others not so much. 2021-12-29 13:48:06 @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha @chrislhayes @mugecevik @NathanGrubaugh Rapid tests may not be predictive at the individual level with absolute certainty, but I find it hard to believe they are not probabilistically predictive at population level—as a public health tool. Ceteris paribus, better containment with test-to-stay than "X-day and done", no? 2021-12-29 13:38:17 @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha @chrislhayes So the incoherence comes from what we are not acknowledging publicly, in my opinion. Because test-to-stay makes sense, but not an option when you don't have enough tests to begin with. 2021-12-29 13:33:31 @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha @chrislhayes Similarly, capacity-saving triage to end isolation in five days without tests, use only source control via masks should talk about masks with better fit-and-filter, maybe differentiate between vaccinated/prior-infected, etc. But you can't do it overnight, and we didn't till now. 2021-12-29 13:21:35 @gregggonsalves @ashishkjha @chrislhayes I think the reality is that we don't have the tests. That 500 million is a target starting in January. Won't ramp up immediately. An alternative is to triage test capacity, direct it to health-care and other critical settings. Not happening either. Not enough tests to test with. 2021-12-29 13:00:55 @Britonomist @besttrousers @jt_kerwin @George_A_Callas He was widely celebrated both on traditional media and on social media, unfortunately. 2021-12-29 12:28:59 RT @nytimesworld: Hundreds of Hong Kong police officers arrested seven people connected to an outspoken pro-democracy news website and raid… 2021-12-29 03:26:29 RT @lukedepulford: Journalist followers please amplify this. Stand News is a small, independent, media outlet in Hong Kong. 2021-12-29 03:01:23 RT @hkfp: BREAKING: Hong Kong national security police arrest Stand News senior staff, as 200 officers raid newsroom https://t.co/FEmZEqn… 2021-12-28 23:53:28 @michaelzlin @Bob_Wachter @UCSF @UCSFHospitals New York city positivity rate is still going up… I believe we are near or at ~max test ceiling anyway. 2021-12-28 23:47:53 @AbraarKaran Can’t finesse an exponential, act early. Avoiding triage and prioritization can mean you get the worst of all possible worlds. “No evidence that…” doesn’t mean “there’s evidence of no…” Science has more than RCTs in its arsenal. Empowering people by informing them is better… 2021-12-28 23:44:07 @AbraarKaran PCR is more a clinical tool than a public health one. Mask fit and filter matter because it’s airborne. Vaccine strategies must take limited supply into account when calculating prioritization and spacing. Can’t develop strategies based on the most-privileged “just staying home”. 2021-12-28 23:29:09 @Bob_Wachter @UCSF @UCSFHospitals That remarkably high asymptomatic positivity sounds like the vaccines are doing an amazing job—since the PCR test (I assume it's PCR?) can pick up even a minute amount of virions. Here in NYC, we are breathing Omicron mist (~25% test positivity). I joke we can just wave the swab. 2021-12-28 22:54:58 @besttrousers @George_A_Callas April 2020 or so yeah my first "let's go outdoors" piece. I think the epi data was pretty clear on the outdoor stuff fairly early, plus mechanisms... It's really powerful to try to think mechanisms—like what could explain what we are seeing, and what's the science of it? 2021-12-28 20:51:38 *"among the most read" -> 2021-12-28 19:52:12 @swolecialism @BeijingPalmer “Resolving symptoms” is “no symptoms” in what language? 2021-12-28 19:35:27 RT @andrew_croxford: Concerns over "long term" vaccine safety has been an unfortunate hindrance to uptake. Thrilled that my article confron… 2021-12-28 19:32:57 “It seems as if even at this late date, the C.D.C. is trying to appease everyone, and therefore pleasing no one. What would be better is a more evidence-driven approach.”—@aaronecarroll. https://t.co/a2bxDQdctz 2021-12-28 19:17:10 @guywhowasoncouc OMG that is too stupid. Amazing, adults are taken in by this kind of stuff. Anyway, bye. 2021-12-28 19:11:49 @ReubenR80027912 No seems like a very stupid way, especially in healthcare. 2021-12-28 19:10:59 @codytfenwick @dunaevtimur Because “resolving” symptoms is clearly not “no symptoms.” 2021-12-28 19:03:30 Many patients in hospitals are already frail. The last thing they need is getting infected there. We all get the staff shortfall crisis. But why not preserve testing capacity for healthcare, and have sensible rules like no symptoms plus two negative tests a day apart for return? 2021-12-28 18:59:18 So, let’s update? Instead of triaging test availability for critical industries, we’ll have healthcare workers return to work on day six even without a negative test, and even if they still have symptoms. Meanwhile many ordinary workplaces require PCR confirmation of rapid tests. https://t.co/sQe2TG4aXp 2021-12-28 18:06:27 We have added $5655 in matching funds from a math professor. THANK YOU! Now up to $79K of your donations are being matched. Please DM me to add to the match. 2021-12-28 15:49:21 RT @WhitneyEpi: This infographic is from UK **not US** It’s the kind of #scicomm I’d like to see to even understand the new CDC quarantin… 2021-12-28 15:48:15 RT @kjccreates: I love this thread. A lot. Back when I used to make real money, Doctors Without Borders was in regular rotation on my donat… 2021-12-28 15:23:15 People who can't tell the difference between what might be first steps for their own project versus global reality maybe not the best source on global reality either. (Glad for all progress, though... 2022 awaits). 2021-12-28 15:21:00 I do wish it could have been much faster, but we have had 8 billion+ doses of vaccines administered globally! So whatever happens next is certainly *not* the first step for vaccinating the world—and that's a good thing. 2021-12-28 01:07:14 @JadePinkSameera @michaelmina_lab @ScottGottliebMD @PaulOffit Efficacy against symptoms, not severe disease. But yes of course we’d be better off knowing. 2021-12-28 00:13:01 @michaelmina_lab @ScottGottliebMD What’s the likelihood of a home flu test? 2021-12-28 00:10:01 RT @zeynep: I'm doing a matching fundraiser campaign supporting Doctors Without Borders, especially in Yemen and Burundi. I'm matching $20K… 2021-12-27 23:08:51 Since this gets asked. It *is* good news, not an argument for uncontrolled spread with no mitigations. https://t.co/T5Kjmhz708 2021-12-27 23:07:34 RT @wingozorkon: This is an important thread. MSF (Doctors Without Borders) is doing a lot of good around the world, especially in Yemen. I… 2021-12-27 23:05:48 @justbestguess If you are vaccinated and/or infected—with repeated exposure preferably through the primary series/booster—your immune system is expected to help keep you from severe disease, on average—assuming immunocompetence. 2021-12-27 22:59:36 @cpepp Word salad aside, this is about host response to repeated exposure, regardless of variant. 2021-12-27 22:56:29 @anonymo71784504 No, not really. Too many people are still vulnerable, waiting for vaccination or boosters. Plus we have antivirals on the way for the immunocompromised, but in very short supply now. Will increase soon. Still good news, though and will impact policy trade-off calculations. 2021-12-27 22:48:41 @anonymo71784504 No. 2021-12-27 22:46:41 Also note, Omicron is not a descendent of Delta—so that’s not what’s going on. Omicron evolved from a separate lineage. Still broadens immune response—similar to how vaccines with ancestral spike nowhere to be found anymore improve quantity and *quality* of the immune response. 2021-12-27 22:43:23 @Pinboard Wait till you hear about this thing in nanolipids 2021-12-27 22:40:45 This repeated exposure/broadening optimization trick is amazing. Gradient descent, make way. 2021-12-27 22:36:17 Very good to have this confirmation. When your immune system sees Omicron, it does better, later, against Delta as well! https://t.co/dWoH1NzN3t 2021-12-27 22:11:03 Adding to the matches. Another $5K of your donations will be matched by @grimmelm. Thank you! Now $73K of your donations is matched. Contribute below to get matched, or DM me to add to the matching total. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/l5jA422bx2 2021-12-27 21:10:22 @fortboise Check your DMs. 2021-12-27 20:37:23 Another match, from @joe_rice_ for $5K! Bringing the total matches to donations to this campaign to $68K! Yeay. Thank you! Donate at this link, to have your donation be matched, or DM me to increase the match! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/qQUHIePY4J 2021-12-27 19:42:24 @imvincent314 thank you! 2021-12-27 19:20:07 @Craig_A_Spencer The magic of infrastructure.... 2021-12-27 18:40:10 This is true. (Also, yes, ideally, all this is infrastructure that should be funded like infrastructure). https://t.co/e6GvMo1T26 2021-12-27 18:37:41 So is this trying to find people to scam by selecting for past victims of scams? I would totally read a strong, detailed ethnography of all this. Do they A/B test messages? What is the folk psychology among the scammers about what might work? Do they have their own fads? https://t.co/YzTGMQzh1L 2021-12-27 17:30:51 RT @mikkipedia: Great cause, great explainer of how and why they are raising $ 2021-12-27 16:58:59 @PenfoldDavid Thank you! It all adds up. 2021-12-27 16:49:00 And now, we are up to $63K in matches to your donations thanks to @jonathanmprince. Thank you! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/If9AvQ3P4H 2021-12-27 16:45:06 So here it is. A tax-deductible way to donate to an organization that is on the ground in many places in crisis, with overwhelmingly local staff. You can donate below. If you had a good financial year and want to contribute? DM me to add to the match! https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-27 16:40:25 But the way one wishes the world worked doesn't change the current plight of those suffering right now. *Some* problems are hard. Finding some money to alleviate widespread severe malnutrition and lack of healthcare during a pandemic? That should be easy, with our wealth. 2021-12-27 16:36:14 For the record, I do *not* like fundraising. We have so much cash slushing around the world. Asset bubbles everywhere. Interest rates can barely move. Why can't we have fair taxation, and none of this fundraising bludgeoning for basic rights—healthcare, food security. Madness. 2021-12-27 16:32:25 Meanwhile, my Civic also made it to 2021. 200K+ miles, and quadruples in value when I put my bike on it but it does run. I signed it over to a friend's son, and brought my bike to NYC instead. So I'm doing an MSF fundraiser again, matching $20K. https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm https://t.co/ldOpA3xYeE 2021-12-27 16:28:50 Burundi has somewhat similar challenges. It was already fragile, from war and poverty, but now there's a pandemic. It faces other epidemics, and even when COVID-19 vaccines arrive, the resources for distribution aren't there. Even healthcare workers are unvaccinated. See: ~0%. https://t.co/ytSrialM7K 2021-12-27 16:22:58 Now it's 2021 and Yemen is still suffering but now there's a pandemic on top of it all. Meanwhile, even food aid is being cut. No money. It's unconscionable. It's just cash. Pixels on a screen. Entry in a crypto wallet. Meanwhile, millions of kids are severely malnourished. https://t.co/0BcEghcsOz 2021-12-27 16:16:01 On the other hand, my car wasn't just still running, umm, it was scratch-proof and theft-proof—stick-shift, which nowadays apparently means thieves can't drive off with it. So we collectively raised a bunch of money. https://t.co/641zPSwpQ7 2021-12-27 16:14:35 Yemen back then already had the triple whammy: war (including proxy wars that we were involved in), poverty and famine. Severe malnutrition and lack of healthcare made everything worse, too. 2021-12-27 16:12:28 This started in 2016, when I did a campaign supporting MSF's work in Yemen. I had a 2001 Civic that I thought would die and need replacement. Well, it kept running. So I put up the money for a new car to support MSF in Yemen because so few orgs were there. https://t.co/yWO61EqVJf 2021-12-27 16:08:47 I'm doing a matching fundraiser campaign supporting Doctors Without Borders, especially in Yemen and Burundi. I'm matching $20K and others joined so matches are up to $58K. Want to increase the match? DM me. Want to donate? Want to know why? https://t.co/rSr3XDl0qm 2021-12-27 14:37:35 RT @michaelmina_lab: Symptoms are starting v early w Omicron (for a number of reasons I’ve discussed) This means that there is a chance th… 2021-12-27 12:28:22 RT @steveportigal: I just made a small donation 2021-12-27 08:20:00 CAFIAC FIX 2021-12-21 04:38:40 @Pinboard Tomorrow, We’ll be arguing if 73% or 91% of the cases are Omicron. (Also it’s not replacing Delta, at least not yet—just on its own lesson in “what is d/dt e^t”). 2021-12-21 04:32:12 RT @Pinboard: I see some bickering in the timeline about whether 40% or 73% or whatever of US cases are now omicron. The great thing about… 2021-12-21 03:36:21 @wanderer_jasnah @bencowling88 @hkdemonow @DrDOwens Not sure how the math could even work without? Kind of boggles the mind as is. 2021-12-21 02:57:24 https://t.co/tpn1QVeUB5 2021-12-21 02:56:45 @jonst0kes 1.8 days. Pretty close. 43 hours. It’s within ballpark. This thing is wild. 2021-12-21 02:52:30 @jonst0kes https://t.co/b1ydKa0nhg 2021-12-21 02:01:10 @twitskeptic @macroliter @IKostenas @jljcolorado @QuantumOverlord @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet You are now making up more stuff. That kind of risk-compensation or second-order effects have been studied to death, in multiple areas, and they may exist in minds who never looked at the empirical evidence but like being contrarian, but people ordinarily do not behave like that. 2021-12-21 01:57:27 @macroliter @IKostenas @jljcolorado @QuantumOverlord @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet Okay that random person is wrong. None of the scientists I worked and co-authored with on aerosol transmission have ever said surgical masks are useless. If that random person was a WHO official directing the pandemic response globally, yeah I'd totally be upset. 2021-12-21 01:55:07 @macroliter @Merz @jljcolorado @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet I don't think there's anyone on this thread disagreeing there, and I think most of my recent public work has been vaccination oriented. But NPIs as we need them have to be correct, and resources aren't unlimited, and the optimization requires a correct understanding. 2021-12-21 01:47:23 @Merz @jljcolorado @macroliter @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet You need mitigations to target the most important mechanisms, and not leave them out (aerosol mitigations are often left out). Still,, I'm all for hand-washing, Do you have any evidence handwashing associated with less infection for SARS-CoV-2? I know of no paper, would love one. 2021-12-21 01:38:39 @jljcolorado @QuantumOverlord @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet Yeah, nobody has ever said surgical masks were useless. In fact, they can even be appropriate for certain settings, transmission levels, vaccination status etc. But N95 > 2021-12-21 01:35:14 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet But they have not, because today, amidst all this in NYC, I'm watching elderly people enter an enclosed, unventilated space with very limited protection, unprotected essential workers, and little awareness, even. That's why it matters. It's bigger than anyone's personal feelings. 2021-12-21 01:32:36 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet The rest—correcting the aerosol micron cutoff boundary, tracing history of the error, sociology of anti-miasma efforts turning into incorrect scientific dogma... All that could wait, *if* the public health authorities had found their way to the correct message and mitigations. 2021-12-21 01:30:08 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet The science of it is very interesting, will clearly be relevant to other respiratory diseases, and I found the sociology of science aspect fascinating. But frankly, if WHO and the CDC had found a way to do the right thing, I wouldn't care if they called it tiny things you inhale. 2021-12-21 01:28:41 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet I do get upset when people think this is some minor obsession. It's about explaining the correct transmission mechanism, that it is airborne understood correctly, so people can better protect themselves, and we can do the best possible mitigations with our limited resources. 2021-12-21 01:26:55 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet The amount of money and effort spent doing incorrect mitigations like plexiglass that can increase infections when HEPA filters never sell out? When there's been no official effort to help people avoid the flood of counterfeit N95s? Nobody is upset because of personal obsession. 2021-12-21 01:24:16 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet There were elderly people in there with me, and I was the only one wearing an N95, amidst the Omicron wave in NYC and when we know elderly will have especially difficult time fending off antibody evading variants. Nobody has been explaining this to people. TWO YEARS IN. 2021-12-21 01:21:00 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet A correct understanding of the transmission mechanism would empower people, direct investment to correct mitigations, assuage fears, encourage outdoors (instead of stupid beach shaming) and help with other respiratory diseases. We aren't into Twitter battles for the fun of it. 2021-12-21 01:18:47 @jljcolorado @macroliter @Merz @twitskeptic @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO @TheLancet I also agree on misunderstandings, why I spent so much time writing public articles on multiple aspects of this. Today, I went into a post-office, and saw these people working behind non-airtight plastic barrier with terrible masks, doors closed, no HEPA. This isn't semantics. 2021-12-21 01:16:15 @jljcolorado @gardengirl778 @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Sure. I knew of the topic from sociolinguistics, but I looked it up at more length recently because, like you, I spent a lot of time actually looking for evidence *in favor* of droplets being the main route. This was one of the potential mediators of the epidemiology data. 2021-12-21 01:09:42 @jljcolorado @gardengirl778 @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Yep. Will email lit review. "Conversational space" and "personal space" are keywords—it's a very well-studied area of sociolinguistics, and despite people making up stuff on this thread, there's decades of research. Varies by culture, gender-grouping, noise, vertical space etc. 2021-12-21 01:05:29 @Merz @twitskeptic @jljcolorado @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Nah, I don't need more time—it couldn't have been more telling than the past two years. I'm good, thanks. Similarly, MDs on WHO committees *yelled* at the aerosol scientists on this thread, but time has spoken there as well. Not everyone with degrees can do good science. 2021-12-21 00:34:47 @gardengirl778 @Merz @jljcolorado @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Not just that, because this has indeed been studied very well, interpersonal closeness produces *less* discomfort outdoors so people can get closer, and decades of research and measurement find that there is no indoor close/outdoor apart rule. 2021-12-20 23:31:46 @twitskeptic @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO The question of what makes you so certain about me that I'm a "social media influencer" out to get followers on topics I don't know much about, is left to the reader as exercise. 2021-12-20 23:29:14 @twitskeptic @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO I guess it just hasn't occurred to you that I've been working on this for two years, and besides multiple lengthy public-facing articles in Atlantic, New York Times, etc, I've co-authored directly-relevant peer-reviewed work on this in The Lancet, Science, PNAS, BMJ? 2021-12-20 23:16:53 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Need a theory of observed epidemiology that fits physics, virology, mitigations and their results. I've yet to encounter one on it being mainly droplets—close contact being important fits both theories, but little else does. (Where is all the close contact outdoors transmission?) 2021-12-20 23:13:21 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Indeed. Gravity is the same indoors and outdoors, the difference can be this big if floating particles rather than ballistic ones are driving transmission. Sunlight can matter, but as Jose says, basic science of it says it can't be that big. I repeat: open to a theory that fits. 2021-12-20 22:53:36 @Merz @jljcolorado @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Alternative would require some evidence, and a framework that fits known facts. I am open to one, including one where aerosols aren't predominant or "mainly." But none has come up, and I've been looking, either from the data or as even a "for example" framework. 2021-12-20 22:51:14 @Merz @jljcolorado @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO I don't think there is any way to avoid "mainly" aerosol transmission and fit the known facts and physics. The indoor/outdoor difference in epi, the ventilation matters indoors data, HEPA filter role, the overdispersed dynamics... Other mainly airborne diseases look like this. 2021-12-20 22:45:49 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO (I don't know how I got summoned to this thread but I would love to see a framework that explains how droplets could explain the empirical facts we observe. I'd be genuinely interested to see one 2021-12-20 22:43:21 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Once you posit that aerosols are the main route of transmission, every known significant fact from the epidemiology fits easily within a framework compatible with basic physics. When you posit droplets as main route of transmission, the empirical facts don't make sense. 2021-12-20 22:40:50 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Why would HEPA filters work? They aren't between you and the person you are speaking with, should be irrelevant for droplets. How could there be so much overdispersion with a mainly droplet, thus, ballistic trajectory, particles? 2021-12-20 22:38:20 @jljcolorado @Merz @kprather88 @NuritBaytch @macroliter @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Off the top of my head, why would ventilation matter indoors if it were mainly droplets, as ballistic particles, same behaviour. Why would plexiglass—which would block droplets—be associated with *higher* rates of infection, as predicted from aerosols, via ventilation dead zones. 2021-12-20 21:27:28 @macroliter @ProfCharlesHaas @jljcolorado @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO In fact, that is exactly the heart of the issue and why all this matters so much. Otherwise less crucial. 2021-12-20 21:26:27 @macroliter @ProfCharlesHaas @jljcolorado @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Only certain size particles can float around and concentrate with time rather than dropping immediately with gravity, and thus be susceptible to ventilation and indoor & 2021-12-20 21:21:33 @ProfCharlesHaas @jljcolorado @macroliter @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @WHO Not for mitigation. 2021-12-20 20:43:45 @macroliter Excellent! If messaging caught up, we could, for example, stop wasting money for Plexiglas in schools which might have helped if transmission was droplet dominated, but is associated with *higher* rates of infection in kids exactly because it may impede ventilation, for aerosols. 2021-12-20 20:33:28 @macroliter I think there’s a lot of people who conflate distance with a mode transmission, and that’s important because the mode of transmission implies many things about mitigation. On the other hand, I haven’t seen anybody serious in any side of this debate deny distance matters. 2021-12-20 20:28:39 @macroliter Who said it doesn’t? Please do clarify. 2021-12-20 20:20:16 @macroliter @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @jljcolorado @WHO So "close-range" is a measure of distance, NOT a mode of transmission NOR the size of the particles enveloping the virus, and there is an empirically well-supported theory that fits all the known facts very well: that transmission is predominately airborne via inhaled aerosols. 2021-12-20 20:15:46 @macroliter @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @jljcolorado @WHO I have repeatedly asked for anyone to write a theory of how predominantly droplet transmission would explain the facts of the world as we observe it, and remain open to it, starting with why outdoors and ventilation matters. Aerosols as main route fit the known facts very well. 2021-12-20 20:14:28 @macroliter @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @jljcolorado @WHO If close range transmission was also dominated by droplets, there could not be this stark a difference between indoor/outdoor transmission & 2021-12-20 20:11:06 @macroliter @kprather88 @dylanhmorris @IKostenas @klausenhauser @angie_rasmussen @jljcolorado @WHO Nobody is saying it is not important. Rather, it is: close-range transmission also appears to be dominated by aerosols, and long-range transmission is not only obviously possible, we may be underestimating it due to ascertainment bias in the way we trace cases (see NFL example). 2021-12-20 17:01:14 I don't know for sure, honestly, but it is a standard operating procedure for some tests. Maybe someone with specific expertise can tell us? I am used to both methods, and find the tonsil swab easier. https://t.co/vpopvTDe2R 2021-12-20 16:51:31 In many countries, rapid tests are swabbed once from a tonsil and once from a nostril. It does seem to be more accurate, and actually isn't hard. (I found it easier tbh, than nostril swabbing). See video. https://t.co/LucBktxZVU https://t.co/POPPa6Vk2N 2021-12-20 15:17:50 Hearing this, will update. There should be a way to preserve such capacity for people living with elderly relatives or otherwise high-risk people—a group of young roommates are less in need of isolating away from home. Omicron=triage time. @MarkLevineNYC https://t.co/LN1td4882x 2021-12-20 15:12:38 @cameronmattis UGH! 2021-12-20 15:09:27 NYC friends: free hotels are available for those wishing to isolate away from home. See below also for current testing site hours/locations. Feel free to drop resources below to support healthcare staff and/or nursing homes/elderly: the biggest challenges for this wave. https://t.co/O1RfyawK4A https://t.co/3NDDDWUe7A 2021-12-20 04:05:12 @hilarym99 Wow 2021-12-20 03:41:34 How is people’s experience this week, trying to schedule boosters? Still hearing of people having to wait multiple weeks, into January, for an appointment. Has it gotten easier in some places? https://t.co/G9acvuKCu1 2021-12-20 03:16:46 @sciliz @jbarro Why assume identical? Any data is useful. Remember when NFL data helped prove to more people why the droplet dogma was wrong, and that rules based on airborne transmission worked better? A signal is a signal that can guide decisions with consideration. https://t.co/QhtHmIZYru 2021-12-20 03:12:16 @BrunnCarrigg That’s useful. I’m tempted to try to do a chart of known cases, see if we know when they first tested positive. Seems likely they have data. 2021-12-20 03:09:42 @dylanhmorris What’s the hurry. Did I miss something? Is something going on? 2021-12-20 03:07:25 @crbishop @jbarro Examples? Any reporting? 2021-12-20 03:05:32 @BrunnCarrigg @jbarro Where was this reported? 2021-12-20 02:54:37 @jbarro Hopefully before ERs stop functioning. NFL and NBA may have the data, too. They test and sequence very often, with detailed tracking. Hopefully sports franchises can bail us out. 2021-12-19 20:46:35 @reidatcheson They will be sheeps to slaughter, and already happening. 2021-12-19 20:37:10 @necolas 2021-12-19 18:20:51 @priscillagilman @jburnmurdoch Thank you both! 2021-12-19 18:04:59 @podzilla @Mauerback Thank you! 2021-12-19 17:44:40 @geoffdelc 2021-12-19 17:40:26 @Mauerback Thank you. 2021-12-19 17:39:41 Incredible compilations. One thread is of examples of *good* practices worldwide on messaging Covid is airborne and what that means for mitigation, and another thread is of the unfortunately persistent incorrect, incomplete even misleading ones. (He's collecting more of both!) https://t.co/MwdNVrtOXd 2021-12-19 15:41:36 @aaronecarroll I will never understand we did not start planning for this on the summer of 2020 as the world. Or first day in office for Biden. It would’ve been the single most cost effective, life-saving intervention compared to the human and economic cost of a prolonged pandemic. 2021-12-19 15:38:53 @AdamJKucharski @azraghani @BarnardResearch @rozeggo @dr_anne_cori @lilithwhittles @DrLouiseDyson @Ri_Science *checks calendar* Yeah it does seem to be 2021. 2021-12-19 15:27:53 @jburnmurdoch 2021-12-19 15:04:35 @mlipsitch See thread for excess death comparisons and implications. This is what’s been on my mind. https://t.co/TeL4tAe02K 2021-12-19 06:49:57 @RadioFreeTom This needs a plan beyond “get vaccinated and get boosted.” A wave is coming—and we may get lucky but nobody knows for sure if we will. Triage mode needs leadership. Lots of things may need changing if middle scenarios happen—not at all ruled out. 2021-12-19 06:47:11 @RadioFreeTom We just learned the vaccine for under fives was not immunogenic. So they will remain unvaccinated for a while more—especially bad for infants. Schools are closing, what’s the childcare plan, at a minimum? Masks are still not upgraded—the market is flooded with counterfeits. 2021-12-19 06:43:19 @RadioFreeTom I don’t think that’s right. Huge number of vaccinated & 2021-12-19 06:31:59 @RadioFreeTom Right now people are filling in the vacuum with social media. That’s not better. People who don’t care will tune it out anyway. People who do, need info. Twice a week then. There needs to be an authoritative voice. 2021-12-19 05:42:47 @howisthewater Agree, though maybe they will get data from us. The current bellwethers aren’t comparable enough, but Eastern Europe is. 2021-12-19 05:20:46 @ofsevit Well. Yeah. We should. 2021-12-19 04:37:47 I know President Biden will address the nation on Tuesdy. I would like daily press briefings from the CDC, and weekly updates from the President. It’s okay to say “here’s what we don’t yet know.” People need frequent updates, explanations, and a sense of the plan, no? 2021-12-19 04:31:17 So much discourse around “is it mild”—not even coherent, conflating intrinsic virulence with immunity. But health-care crisis looks dangerous even if small percent is severe: that can be a big number in a huge wave. HCW already exhausted, plus many will test positive. 2021-12-19 04:20:40 @EricaWarner16 Haha 2021-12-19 04:17:55 @mkarolian Yeah, totally understandable. It’s just terrible to be dealing with this. 2021-12-19 04:17:16 I know it’s uncomfortable but there’s still uncertainty to what will happen in the United States or in Europe—or in other places. I think South Africa data has taken some of the worst-case scenarios off the table, but a whole lot of unknowns remain and many options are possible. 2021-12-19 04:15:04 @mkarolian I don’t think I said everything is great. It’s still not being back at March 2020. 2021-12-19 04:09:14 @michaelzlin @berryfairyland Yeah. Data poured in on that throughout June. 2021-12-19 04:06:23 Also, I wish we’d call this an antibody evading variant. It’s not really fully evading our vaccines. More breakthroughs and re-infections, sure. But that’s absolutely not like being back in March of 2020. We have vaccines. We understand Covid is airborne. We have drugs that work. 2021-12-19 03:58:12 Jesse Bloom had this thread based on mutation scanning on November 25th, even before what we thought would be named Nu was named Omicron. (I think like a day or so after the South African scientists warned us and shared the genome?). Nailed it, too. Great science, delivered fast. https://t.co/P6uU31WX93 2021-12-19 03:48:47 I mean, yes, there were a few virologists writing op-eds in the New York Times as late as end of July denying that evidence was clear that Delta was more transmissible. (They blamed human behavior instead). But I don’t think that was representative of the general tone. 2021-12-19 03:39:43 Huh. Delta’s threat was clear by end of May, from UK data and India. Omicron is developing fast, but thanks to South Africa we got a very early warning—and antibody evading variant of some sort was discussed a lot before then because that’s what the other human coronaviruses do. https://t.co/Fjxe1k7smb 2021-12-19 03:18:46 RT @ashishkjha: We need to hold two seemingly contradictory ideas in our heads We now have tools to keep ourselves safe There are still l… 2021-12-19 03:16:46 @unnamedwill @jtmhunts I think only one of the monoclonal treatments is still working against Omicron, and it’s the one in short supply. Still a lot of Delta in the country, though. 2021-12-19 02:32:13 RT @holmeschan_: It's election day in Hong Kong. Activist Chan Po-ying has held what is, so far, the only protest against the new Beijing-i… 2021-12-19 02:26:00 @EthanZ Wait you’ll be tested days before, though? What day do you see them? I can overnight a few to you from my stash. Not planning to visit anyone elderly indoors soon. Also I can always wait in line around the corner if I really had to get tested, and Columbia seems to still testing. 2021-12-18 23:41:26 @edithbeerdsen No, because once we lose credibility, people don’t listen to us either way. Just talk straight is the best method, in my view and also I think the right thing to do. 2021-12-18 23:40:14 @MichaelDKarras @mlipsitch Yeah, it’s encouraging. But early on, looking at Milan and Wuhan, I was thinking NYC is screwed (and very frustrated we weren’t acting). Now, I at South Africa and I think, okay, no signal for alarm from there, but also don’t feel like it’s a signal for all-okay. 2021-12-18 23:38:30 @mlipsitch Agree, but still… Much smaller numbers to begin with, very few older than 75, and likely healthier (survival bias). This is their pyramid *before* registering excess deaths equal to about 0.5% of their population. I just don’t feel like they can offer an exact answer to us. https://t.co/G4pgvwE3Ga 2021-12-18 23:32:14 @mlipsitch Anyway, I think that’s frustrating for everyone but we don’t know what we can’t know, and it is what it is. 2021-12-18 23:31:41 @mlipsitch All this was easier to figure out, when world was more uniform, everyone immunonaive. Now with such varying levels of prior infection and/or vaccination, not easy to disentangle all this from looking elsewhere, especially at the speed with which it is spreading… 2021-12-18 23:29:16 @mlipsitch (Also: 65+ in SA is not only smaller proportion of the population, likely healthier compared to same-age peers here—survival bias, frankly. Don’t think we have strong signal about that age group yet, plus they need antibodies more than younger people away from immunosenescence.) 2021-12-18 23:26:31 @mlipsitch I think we have little idea what Omicron might mean for the yet-to-be vaccinated population of Vietnam or Hong Kong, or many countries in Africa without prior outbreaks. Also not clear on breakthrough outcomes for unboosted elderly, imo—too little time yet. Seems wise to act. 2021-12-18 23:24:29 @mlipsitch I think given its age structure and high seropositivity from prior outbreak+infection, South Africa could only give us the signal to *really* worry, but not to relax. Asymmetrical in its ability to inform us. Denmark and UK, similar age pyramid but healthier and more vaccinated.+ 2021-12-18 23:18:35 @pbleic The whole pandemic https://t.co/puoXVt8Q98 2021-12-18 23:12:55 RT @pbleic: Zeynep nails it. Over and over again. Now about severity of Omicron. 2021-12-18 23:12:41 @Rohan_Naidu @matthew_witten @michaelzlin It’s ill-suited for thinking clearly about causality in general, not just communicating. 2021-12-18 23:09:53 @LindsayMayka @naomiprof Yeah absolutely not. If anything, it’s the opposite end of the spectrum. Below is me, trying to convince people in March of 2020 that it wasn’t going to be “two weeks to flatten the curve”. Now, the opposite. This isn’t March 2020 at all. https://t.co/XKU2E2eUd6 2021-12-18 20:51:48 @michaelzlin (I think sometimes people mean it the first way and it gets interpreted the second way, anyway). 2021-12-18 20:49:20 @michaelzlin This has been a problem the whole pandemic. “No evidence that…” when it means “we don’t know enough to conclude either way” being presented as “it’s evidence that…” 2021-12-18 18:42:33 @priscillagilman @D_Twitt3r Doctor can likely just prescribe the additional dose, “off-label” so to speak. I agree, immunocompromised people are at much higher risk and the wave is now. A medical doctor should be able to assess. 2021-12-18 17:50:58 @martinbowling @NYMag @EricTopol Interesting, thank you so much! 2021-12-18 17:42:23 @martinbowling @NYMag @EricTopol Did you test in the intermediate days? 2021-12-18 17:36:36 @NYMag @EricTopol *data 2021-12-18 17:33:01 @NYMag @EricTopol Super-duper anecdotally: my impression so far from London and New York contacts is that Omicron breakthroughs are clearing out in about ~three days—symptoms go away and not testing positive anymore. I really wish we had quick systematic that on this given all the implications. 2021-12-18 16:45:12 RT @jljcolorado: REQUEST FOR INPUT: I am creating a collection of BAD examples of policies and practices worldwide, which reflect @WHO I w… 2021-12-18 15:27:19 RT @alisonannyoung: A reporter risked her life to show the world Covid in Wuhan. Now she may not survive jail. https://t.co/gQRQIpUin1 2021-12-18 15:07:04 And there are more rapid test brands, too in Europe—some sell for as little as $1 and some countries distribute them for free. Wondering how US fumbled rapid tests? Read this amazing, infuriating investigative piece by @ericuman and @lydiadepillis. https://t.co/rw7r31FPXs https://t.co/NnE2dT3R1o 2021-12-18 14:44:20 RT @josh_wingrove: CDC data is overcounting shots as "first doses," when they're instead boosters or 2nds. It means more people are fully… 2021-12-18 14:40:45 Yes. Lift the ban. There isn’t any justification for it under these conditions. None. https://t.co/SotQHKvABR 2021-12-18 14:29:39 it me, NYC https://t.co/cf3QwY16R5 2021-12-18 04:50:12 RT @doctorsdilemma: CMOH Canada confirms aerosol as the main route of transmission for COVID-19 and those closest get higher exposure. Th… 2021-12-18 02:01:54 RT @maxstrasser: On Monday, @alaa, who has been jailed for more than two years, will be sentenced to prison for a retweet. His mother Laila… 2021-12-18 01:59:24 @D_Twitt3r They can ask their doctor to move that up (off-label is fine for approved vaccines). If it were my loved one, I’d absolutely look into getting a booster for them before the six months was up, tbh. Should be possible. Best of luck! 2021-12-18 01:54:56 @D_Twitt3r I believe they are already supposed to get that fourth shot! If that’s you, please ask your medical doctor. The “booster” is on top of the extra shot for the immunocompromised that was authorized earlier. 2021-12-18 00:23:10 RT @JoannaStern: We created more TikTok automated accounts and told the app they were 13. The algorithm served them tens of thousands of… 2021-12-17 20:00:04 RT @zchagla: Totally agree. If we want to spare healthcare this needs to be the target. Campaigns to get 50+ year olds in ASAP. 2021-12-17 16:46:18 RT @marciahofmann: These fellowships now come with stipends! 2021-12-17 15:33:44 @DarikClevinger @jbarro I don't think I can tweet about it in a hand-wavy manner, but more importantly I'm hoping what any of us suggests is kinda irrelevant because we're about to get some announcements, guidance, plans... 2021-12-17 14:54:25 @jbarro Tighten what rule? At the collective level? Timing-wise, we are at the "urgently need realistic management of what's about to happen, properly explain it" emergency. 2021-12-17 14:45:34 @jbarro They have a lot of assumptions that likely no longer hold. I’m kind of hoping somebody in charge is about to roll out the new plan? 2021-12-17 14:32:43 Look, "it's mild" people. I'm not saying Omicron is a huge individual threat to someone in good health, had two, preferably three shots, at least one of them an mRNA. But this new wave needs preparing people for it, and an active management of it by communicating and adjusting. 2021-12-17 14:27:34 @iskander And not be able to interpret what's going on. 2021-12-17 14:20:26 In case it’s not obvious, many places in the U.S. may run out of PCR testing capacity soon. I don’t think the fact that many vaccinated will test positive has sunk in. Current quarantine/isolation guidelines don’t fit an Omicron wave. I think we have a communication emergency. 2021-12-17 13:35:23 @D_Winetsky_MD @notdred This ends with all of us turning into bats. 2021-12-17 13:23:36 RT @EduardCousin: Laila Soueif about her son's @alaa imprisonment in #Egypt: "..it seems that the outside world, once so inspired by Egypti… 2021-12-16 22:46:13 RT @dseetharaman: Neymar has one of the top accounts on Instagram and, as @WSJ / @JeffHorwitz reported, was protected by @Meta’s XCheck pro… 2021-12-16 20:42:16 RT @brodiegal: Also, why are we still closing and sanitising government departments (and police stations!) for every Covid case? Fomites ar… 2021-12-16 20:41:08 RT @DeryaTR_: Herkese son uyarımı yapıyorum, aşısızlar aşınızı olun, 2doz Biontech olanlar 3.Doz, daha önce (sonra) covid geçirenler 2.doz,… 2021-12-16 20:27:45 @matthew_d_green 2021-12-16 19:39:13 @matthew_d_green Check the thread. He’s an epidemiologist who studies this and has free tests. He had an exposure so he’s demonstrating something. But yeah. 2021-12-16 19:37:27 @MisterLoyalEsq You, raging against seatbelts. 2021-12-16 19:34:17 RT @glassblowerscat: This is very helpful because I literally JUST took an at-home test and was only pretty sure this counted as positive.… 2021-12-16 19:33:58 @glassblowerscat Yes! That looks like a positive! Wishing you the best possible outcome—and yep that’s exactly how one avoids infecting others. 2021-12-16 19:29:25 @russss @lpfeed I absolutely agree on that, hence my tweet. 2021-12-16 19:22:15 @lpfeed @russss Not really because this is a test of infectiousness, not infection and has a different public health role compared with clinically-oriented tests like PCR. It enables rapid response when no other method would—what’s the point of higher sensitivity if results come two days later? 2021-12-16 19:13:35 @AfterWestphalia Thank you! 2021-12-16 18:52:52 @boutros555 Those you consider mild now also killed very large numbers of people when they emerged as novel viruses causing pandemics 2021-12-16 18:38:53 @boutros555 How is this anxiety? I do a things like that every day, small things to lower risk for others. It doesn't occur to me to whine about such tiny, tiny things. Pandemic has actual burdens! A single minute to test isn't that, especially when the test is free like the original tester. 2021-12-16 18:36:17 @boutros555 That said, if I had a cheap or free easy method that took less time than brushing my teeth to help me prevent spreading influenza pre-symptomatically? I'd consider that during flu season. Flu kills a lot of children and elderly—and our vaccines aren't as good against it. 2021-12-16 18:33:34 @boutros555 Maybe because the others don't combine a pandemic AND robust presymptomatic transmission? You know, people objected to washing hands pretty much with the same logic. (Not kidding—hand washing as a disease mitigation strategy was *greatly* resisted first by the medical community) 2021-12-16 17:36:32 From the epidemiologist I quoted in the first tweet above, who did a great public service by testing frequently enough to demonstrate temporal the emergence of the line visually. Thank you! https://t.co/shn1U6KSDk 2021-12-16 17:30:13 @BQuilty Thank you! It was an excellent visual demonstration. 2021-12-16 17:29:29 Yes, pretty much the same logic and the same amount of time commitment. By the way it took a lot of work and effort to get people, including medical doctors of the 19th century, to accept washing hands between patients was necessary for disease mitigation. https://t.co/rHVKcijHkw 2021-12-16 17:24:39 @jjstoller @david_shane YEP! Very similar in both logic and time necessary. 2021-12-16 17:17:50 @joshtpm @TPCarney The issue is one of the drugs (it's a pair of drugs), ritonavir, needs managing and is a black box label drug. So it's not side effects like that per se. It's still great! A very important addition to the arsenal! Ceteris paribus, I'd still rather not need it but great to have. 2021-12-16 17:10:11 Amazing how many think it's brave or realistic to whine about doing something so minor to avoid transmitting. You guys aren't storming Omaha Beach on D-Day, you know? Early 2020—when we had no vaccines, drugs, or even PPE—nurses went to work wearing garbage bags. That's bravery. 2021-12-16 17:03:19 @Feynman_19 @TheEliKlein "What demographic does this tweet serve" question has nothing to do with that, though. I guess the sooner we do the things that help bring about the end of the pandemic with the least possible suffering, the sooner we can adjust policies. 2021-12-16 16:58:55 RT @KadyrToktogulov: “Drugs are almost always much riskier than vaccines.” This is what also a friend of mine, a senior exec at a pharmaceu… 2021-12-16 16:51:41 Main reason people can think this is that the generations before us worked so hard at "disease mitigation"—from sanitation to antibiotics to drugs to vaccines—so that we don't realize what it means. Here's an under five mortality chart over two centuries. https://t.co/a2bHIxuZHO https://t.co/gNdYF4xbjZ 2021-12-16 16:41:27 I'm thrilled about Pfizer's antiviral being available to people, for example, who are immunocompromised or elderly or high-risk even from breakthroughs, for example. One of its components comes with a black box warning, though. Drugs are almost always much riskier than vaccines. 2021-12-16 16:39:38 Therapeutics are great for people who need them—some people don't respond to vaccines, some people are high-risk. The potential side effects of any infection *and* those of *every* therapeutic we have greatly exceed any risk we see from the vaccines. https://t.co/rUclqIPlIZ 2021-12-16 16:36:33 And finally, the original person I quoted lives in a country where the cost to him is... zero. I simply wanted to highlight the meaning of the faint line. No, I wouldn't test four times a day unless I suspected exposure or was just trying it out, but the point is obvious. 2021-12-16 16:34:28 @mkramer @taramurtha 2021-12-16 16:34:10 Perfect. It’s very similar to staying home when you’re sick if you’re able to do so. This disease spreads most *right before* you develop symptoms and just then, so this test is equivalent of a cough and a fever warning you that you’re likely to infect others. Calm and carry on. https://t.co/FqpmTOlgue 2021-12-16 16:26:47 Me: "Sure, I slow down around corners, even more so if children are playing around! I get to my destination 60 seconds later than otherwise." You, a realist: "You must be a ball of anxiety, life is full of risks just accept and move on!" 2021-12-16 16:20:38 Yes, I personally write a lot about COVID but it's because this should not be the bastion of the privileged, or those with money, or information—to be able to take reasonable precautions and carry on with life and adjust if something changes. This isn't anxiety, it's privilege. 2021-12-16 16:13:55 I think there's an invisible demographic of people, especially among those whose work conditions are more privileged, who have been taking reasonable precautions but really are just carrying on with life, just with extra steps especially to avoid transmission to more vulnerable. 2021-12-16 16:11:07 To the mention-folk claiming this is anxiety. Do you stop at red lights? Do you slow down around corners? YES COST IS A BARRIER. But if I can take sixty seconds to avoid infecting especially someone vulnerable, why wouldn't I? It's the opposite of anxiety. It's calm and carry-on. 2021-12-16 16:06:28 @stormrobinson @TheEliKlein He clearly had a reason to take four tests. (I'm guessing exposure/family member sick?). But it's less time than brushing your teeth, and why would I not do it especially if I were going to meet someone vulnerable? Do you stop at red lights couple times a day? 2021-12-16 16:04:27 @AlabamaFan @ppiixx Exactly. But this spreads *right before* you have a fever or a bad cough. This is what the test is telling you: same info as the fever or cough. I think almost everyone would like to avoid harming those around them, especially if it is pretty easy. 2021-12-16 16:01:40 @TheEliKlein Tests should be cheaper even free, for sure, it does limit their use. But I see that you think people who are not rich, white and liberals are all sociopaths? What a sad view of the world. Please get out of your bubble! People of all backgrounds care about people around them. 2021-12-16 15:59:52 @AlabamaFan @ppiixx And that is why I stop at red lights and slow down around corners and where children are playing around, and I don't go around whining to people who do that life is full of risks—not being a sociopath, that is. 2021-12-16 15:57:19 @TheEliKlein The non-sociopaths of the world who'd like to avoid infecting someone vulnerable—especially elderly people, immunocompromised, infants, etc.—by taking 60 seconds of their life to check, and have the financial means to do so. (Test should be cheaper). So yes, not everyone. 2021-12-16 15:52:32 @AlabamaFan @ppiixx You would knowingly not change anything about your life that's in your power to lessen the chances that you'd infect someone more vulnerable than you are? Like an elderly person or someone immunocompromised? Unfortunately, there is no rapid test for sociopathy, or an easy cure . 2021-12-16 14:53:51 Also note. The third one is positive. The line may be the faint but it’s there. It means he has high enough viral load, signaling becoming infectious. Next morning is even higher—darker line . Use rapid tests *right before* meeting. That’s their purpose. https://t.co/Acby8bjT4A 2021-12-16 14:30:58 @BotExemplary @TsuDhoNimh @felixsalmon @jonst0kes That’s not how the immune system works! It’s not a drug! Seriously can’t try reductio ad absurdum as a debate method if you don’t know anything about the subject. Look at the chart I sent. That’s about your maximum. 2021-12-16 04:23:42 See this thread. Healthcare workers are exhausted and spent. They’ve done so much! https://t.co/NBxFDmX6xD 2021-12-16 04:18:39 @MickeyPearce17 @michaelzlin @chrislhayes You’re wrong. Read his threads. It’s not just about waning. 2021-12-16 04:16:43 Many questions about J& 2021-12-16 04:06:27 RT @michaelzlin: @zeynep Indeed 3 doses of COVID19 vaccines broaden the antibody response to cover variants more effectively, including Omi… 2021-12-16 04:03:20 @RichardNeedlem3 I think not using Moderna on young people makes sense, for that reason. But Covid is also a risk. 2021-12-16 04:01:57 From ACIP. We routinely vaccinate children against diseases that kill fewer than Covid before vaccines. Something nice about keeping children alive. https://t.co/yofrNn37BL https://t.co/ZaJN8Lclwy 2021-12-16 03:58:25 @DarinMcKenna See thread https://t.co/79BWKAywl5 2021-12-16 03:56:32 @BotExemplary I did! Why would I worry about the number? I’d worry about prioritizing me over someone at higher risk. 2021-12-16 03:54:58 @ChildrenNeedUs_ Exactly! 2021-12-16 03:54:24 @FotisKanteres https://t.co/9tiA8CHPOK 2021-12-16 03:53:22 A key concern should be global equity and prioritizing vulnerable populations everywhere and figuring out dosing/type for sub-populations. (Yes the differences are worth figuring out). 2021-12-16 03:50:24 What about young men and the small but real risk myocarditis after second shot compared to risk of Covid? Should an infection count like a dose? Sure, good questions. Some populations may have modifications. But, the booster data, including from randomized trials, seems clear. 2021-12-16 03:45:39 Yes, these vaccines may be a three-dose primary series. The third dose doesn’t just “restore”—one gets better protection than ever. I read a lot of history and children die so often in those books. Not anymore, and this chart is why. Notice how many are three or four dose series. https://t.co/Ugt90TvoFy https://t.co/fYSB4zDl8P 2021-12-16 03:44:11 @gfodor @jonst0kes @felixsalmon I don’t want either, would take the myocarditis without thinking, if both were assured and the Covid was going to be a primary infection. 2021-12-16 03:30:18 @EverydayFinance @felixsalmon @jonst0kes Or maybe I know more than you do and spent more than a minute on Google before assuming anyone more informed or smarter than me was lying. The problem is Ritonavir. It’s harder to manage and has a black box label warning. 2021-12-16 03:17:28 @Steve_Sailer @felixsalmon @jonst0kes If I were high risk, but that wasn’t his comparison. 2021-12-16 03:16:17 @jonst0kes @felixsalmon Your age group isn’t really at risk for myocarditis. Yeah the immune system fighting fake virus generating real illness is discombobulating. 2021-12-16 03:12:24 @BotExemplary @felixsalmon @jonst0kes This is why children don’t die in droves the way they used to. Count! https://t.co/0hOpMgaxr5 2021-12-16 03:10:45 @jonst0kes @felixsalmon I do agree it’s hard. These vaccines are striking in how good a safety profile they have in comparison. Pfizer’s drug is amazing to have for people not lucky enough to have vaccines work for them. 2021-12-16 03:04:15 @felixsalmon @jonst0kes Yeah exactly my question. Pfizer drug is great to have, say for immunocompromised but it is expensive, isn’t 100%, limited to high-risk patients and has way worse adverse reaction risks and dangers than vaccines. 2021-12-16 03:01:22 … https://t.co/0qu7qbVGcG 2021-12-16 03:00:57 Hearing this a lot… This is still mostly Delta in the United States. https://t.co/vfawNYb4jS 2021-12-15 21:34:40 Seems like a good addition to this thread. https://t.co/e9jZn6NG71 2021-12-15 20:03:35 I think a lot of unknowns remain, tbh. We only have a few weeks of data, a lot of open questions, and still a fairly big range of possibilities on the table. I really don't have any certainty really, but hospital overload seems to be a strong enough possibility to think about. 2021-12-15 19:57:53 @ned_zeppelin_iv A hope you are doing better! 2021-12-15 19:55:16 @Steven_VdB80 Gallows humor not kidding. 2021-12-15 19:53:01 Yeah. That was my point. https://t.co/pCh5AuHS6D 2021-12-15 19:49:50 There's a lot of focus on individual outcomes: if Omicron will be mild, who, when, how.. I get that, but even *if* severe disease risk were much less, a small percent of a huge wave is a big burden, especially after so much stress already on healthcare after two pandemic years. 2021-12-15 19:45:10 With Omicron likely spreading here fast on top of the ongoing Delta wave, my advice to my personal (vaccinated) social network was... to avoid high-risk sports and appendicitis for a month or so. Not kidding. Hospitals already stretched-thin, more stress looks to be on the way. https://t.co/M54eLCuYIt 2021-12-15 19:13:41 RT @ArmstrongDrew: But the result is that there is horror inside the hospital, and outside it you get "we've moved on from Covid" takes.… 2021-12-15 19:03:43 @anish_koka An infectious disease pandemic clearly has considerations more than "therapy"—transmission risks to vulnerable people. But I do agree a better framework needed for boosters, especially mandates, by age/sex/vaccine dose. Maybe nursing home staff have different balance. 2021-12-15 18:46:37 @tapuaetai_l @YangTexan @walidgellad @rfsquared I don't run the place, but as I keep agreeing, I do think the data suggests there is reason to be cautious and wait for more clarity for mandates for young men in most settings (maybe not nursing homes, different risks), and especially for higher-dose vaccines like Moderna. 2021-12-15 18:30:38 @anish_koka If you read up and down that thread, there is not any effort, at least by me, to minimize the risk but a discussion about the context for evaluating the risk re:age/sex/dose and post-infection risk, and also not saying things like 1 in 39 from a sample of 78. 2021-12-15 18:12:36 @bethwilensky @walidgellad @rfsquared Yeah, I do think it's a fair question and I wish this was addressed directly, in this context. 2021-12-15 18:10:28 @rfsquared @YangTexan @walidgellad @moderna_tx From what data I see, stratifying dosing by age makes sense from both ends of the age spectrum. (Moderna going to the elderly for benefit). And I wish all this would be discussed rather than focusing only on severity and also skipping over transmission. https://t.co/zPcUwrHQYk 2021-12-15 18:06:12 @kklausser @jonfavs I absolutely 100% totally and fully agree. 2021-12-15 18:05:28 @walidgellad @rfsquared I'm not disagreeing about the existence of this risk, and its obvious concentration on young men after the second dose, and yeah Moderna is higher dose. Tbh I'd give all our Moderna to elderly and/or immunocompromised anyway because of the benefit curve. 2021-12-15 17:58:46 @YangTexan @walidgellad @rfsquared Fair, but at a minimum, the numbers are there within the ballpark, and it's not like post-viral myocarditis is some unheard of thing. I agree there is reason to be cautious, but I think the real question was always this comparison. 2021-12-15 17:54:36 @walidgellad @rfsquared On boosters, I wouldn't not prioritize this group under many other considerations but worth watching if UK which has good surveillance indicates a significant uptick in myocarditis even from breakthrough Omicron infections (no idea) or we get red flags from the 18-29 boosters. 2021-12-15 17:49:49 @walidgellad @rfsquared I think the key comparator for the first/second shot has always been the myocarditis risk from *infection* with this virus. (Assuming you've seen this, out yesterday). https://t.co/SCdT3qaXi4) https://t.co/oGI3UADxe9 2021-12-15 17:37:14 @walidgellad @rfsquared I wouldn't prioritize this group for a booster right now under many other considerations, but one in thirty-nine is not a number that makes sense as things stand. We should get better estimates from 19-25 groups soon, I guess. 2021-12-15 17:35:09 @VPrasadMDMPH @rfsquared We already know this group has low severe outcome risk, so not sure there's that much measurable mystery there, but we also know this is an infectious disease and these young people have parents and grandparents. But I don't disagree that this is not a priority booster category. 2021-12-15 17:33:32 @VPrasadMDMPH @rfsquared My question would be if the increase in myocarditis risk from dose one to two is there for from second to third dose—or it just tops out at second, to compare with what the myocarditis risk from breakthrough infection looks like, the relevant comparison, as the first question. 2021-12-15 17:13:34 @rfsquared You’re giving a public point estimate from a sample of 78? And one incident among the 39? Like how? The confidence interval on that is big enough to string together a few aircraft carriers, and have room to spare. 2021-12-15 17:05:42 @jonfavs Here’s the thread J& 2021-12-15 17:01:25 @theosanderson This is one of the most amazing graphs of the pandemic. 2021-12-15 16:58:40 @damedacia Also might be a good idea to stock up on rapid tests. There are increasingly treatments available to help immunocompromise people deal with an infection, which makes early detection important. 2021-12-15 16:57:41 @damedacia Check with an actual medical doctor, obviously. If it were me or my loved one, I would start asking around the third month mark tbh given the wave that’s here. Medical doctors can measure antibody response in immunocompromised people, evaluate risk, and advise accordingly. 2021-12-15 16:53:33 @brianschatz More. https://t.co/eEVbMnSeTo 2021-12-15 16:52:15 @damedacia Yes. 2021-12-15 16:45:44 A similar trajectory is possible here. UK is experiencing highest recorded number of cases *throughout the whole pandemic*. Rather than arguing over “mildness”, we should take steps now to mitigate the most plausible risks. More is different 2021-12-15 15:48:08 RT @notdred: “The school will be closed for deep cleaning” has got to be one of the dumbest phrases I’ve had to see over and over in this p… 2021-12-15 15:45:52 @linseymarr @larmbrust @GovCanHealth @DFisman 2021-12-15 15:45:21 RT @DFisman: TFW one of the world’s premier aerosol experts visits your country, and learns first-hand how public health and ipac misinform… 2021-12-15 15:16:47 Great thread here on booster studies and existing data. https://t.co/of5dvVpLXz 2021-12-15 14:50:42 @davidlymanning @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey That is my understanding, at least, and I believe the new location is a few hundred yards from the market. Once again though, rather than as proof of what happened, to me, it's another instance of how little we've been told of even the most basic facts, or details of events. 2021-12-15 14:43:56 @cavallario Yeah, agree and possible, but we just have the period in front of us for now, which needs global equity. 2021-12-15 14:37:59 You mean a bit like the flu? Maybe. Miraculous isn't it? Five minutes in a pharmacy and you have the upper hand against this virus, and in a better position than humans have ever been against infectious diseases. I'm in awe of such scientific achievements. https://t.co/G3koXdv06A 2021-12-15 14:26:14 I'm hearing a lot of reports that, especially for elderly people, negotiating a booster is a problem in many states, with little appointment availability. The bottleneck seems to be logistics and staffing, not supply. At a personal level, check on your loved ones and neighbors! 2021-12-15 14:22:40 I think a three-dose primary series now, and a booster later preferably with something other than the ancestral spike but with prefusion stabilization, is quite likely where this may land, eventually. I want to emphasize this makes planning and global equity even more important. 2021-12-15 14:20:39 Don't have time to recap now (maybe there's a thread) but it's been clear even before Omicron, from high-quality randomized trials, that a third dose is really helpful, including against Delta but now against Omicron. Many vaccines are three-dose series. https://t.co/sM7BZhXgHs 2021-12-15 14:16:57 @BStulberg I don't know, to be honest. Personally, if I had children that young, I'd probably want to look at RSV perhaps as a rule-of-thumb for the age/condition risk-gradient. But I haven't seen hard data for Omicron. 2021-12-15 14:11:45 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey Indeed! 2021-12-15 14:09:14 @rottenrandy South Africa had a huge prior outbreak with Delta, so may provide a road map for similar countries but not all others. 2021-12-15 14:08:35 Plus, there are countries that successfully avoided big outbreaks, but are not fully done vaccinating their population let alone boosting due to supply issues. That makes them vulnerable and making sure they can boost especially their vulnerable populations is of utmost urgency. 2021-12-15 14:05:49 Still more to learn but... Even lots of mild cases all at once with a small portion of severe cases—as we age, the T cell response is less robust, so breakthroughs can progress more readily—can cause a lot of suffering and overwhelm health-care system. Boosters demonstrably help. 2021-12-15 14:02:46 See thread, explaining new study: much higher transmissibility for Omicron on top of antibody evasion causing more breakthroughs and re-infections. Do note that even if milder due to immunity and/or lesser intrinsic virulence, still crucial especially for elderly to get boosters. https://t.co/B5nvA8Ukut 2021-12-15 13:57:04 RT @c_drosten: Important finding from Hong Kong: SCoV2 Omicron replicates to higher initial levels than earlier variants in bronchial tissu… 2021-12-15 13:54:52 RT @akvbroek: Delete "Great Glitch of July 8th" with log4j and @zeynep's words still ring terrifyingly true six years later. "We are build… 2021-12-15 13:42:22 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey I have on the record confirmation that it moved right next to the market. But once again, we can't get an answer or details to the simplest question like address history and details of dates, and we are playing Twitter map sleuthing with little to no information. 2021-12-15 13:30:02 @zhihuachen @halvorz @MichaelWorobey Yeah, also: many focus on BSL-4 risks but that assumes only they do high risk work. On the one hand, yes, sure, but BSL-4 at least has high precautions. But there was a lot of BSL-2 work (that's what people used to do with SARS-y coronaviruses!). See Baric https://t.co/PpNCMQpAiQ https://t.co/tzBWq6iFpQ 2021-12-15 12:56:09 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey My, yes, unsatisfying position is there is a too much hope on what one can conclude from data that is clearly incomplete, incoherent & 2021-12-15 12:53:13 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey Very qualified people with a lot of deep knowledge around the epi of this, and who really have done a lot of work on this estimate around a hundred November cases to be plausible or likely—you can see his discussion and papers, too. https://t.co/mxv99tw2NF 2021-12-15 12:51:15 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey As I say upthread, without a real investigation, whether or not *known* case number one is or isn't connected to the market isn't dispositive either way—market source, cryptic transmission to non-connected person is possible. Market as later SSE also possible and one more thing. 2021-12-15 12:49:14 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey Folks are trying to figure out details of the first case we are told about by diving into children's dental records. The WHO team member, Dr. Embarek, said that they were given no info about Mr. Chen's contacts or details... Obviously Chinese scientists aren't this incompetent.+ 2021-12-15 12:44:44 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey Their archived web pages and some of the pre-December reporting about this move has a bunch of contradictions—the stuff that requires actual investigative journalism. And once again, this highlights how little we know of anything because even simple questions aren't answered. 2021-12-15 12:41:42 @halvorz @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey Not only is it very near—a few hundred yards from the market depending on map—the alleged move date of December 2nd has no details or confirmation. I checked and asked, the team was told this date. (But there's a bit more, next tweet). https://t.co/e9RgS2uoOo https://t.co/QtIHxJ0liO 2021-12-15 12:31:07 @zhihuachen @coroldo1 @Drinkwater5Reed @MichaelWorobey Hey, appreciate how much work you guys do chasing down leads. And also, yeah, antibiotic overuse... But I think the key point with Mr. Chen remains how little we know because we aren't told, and that there are likely many earlier cases anyway. Please do untag me for now! Thanks. 2021-12-15 06:42:06 @Bob_Wachter Still big seronegative patches globally… Hope they get vaccinated fast enough so we don’t find out the answer to intrinsic severity. 2021-12-15 06:40:12 @Bob_Wachter Hope so. But:“Ryan Noach, MD, Discovery Health's chief executive officer, said the flatter trajectory of hospital admission in the Omicron wave that hints at lower severity could be confounded by high seroprevalence in South Africa's population, especially after its Delta wave.” 2021-12-15 06:15:54 @LaurenOrder2021 “De-intensify” https://t.co/i3XTEzE8Ph 2021-12-15 06:06:49 @brianschatz U of Washington. Must be more, not everyone is tracking the SGTF signal but that doesn’t mean this isn’t happening in many places. https://t.co/vEfBTCk6VO 2021-12-15 06:05:03 @brianschatz Yale, too. We are about one to two weeks behind Denmark, as a rough estimate, starting with residential colleges most of whom are about to enter a break, and thus disperse. https://t.co/QrcTZmxL76 2021-12-15 05:51:51 @brianschatz It would be great if residential colleges could get guidance from the CDC about the inevitable Omicron outbreaks. It’s not the same landscape as last year. Going home—travel in planes, trains—vs staying put under sensible conditions have trade-offs that need a public health lens. 2021-12-15 05:46:19 @Jane_of_art Very! Check any childhood immunization schedule! https://t.co/wZMCg3OCAY 2021-12-15 04:35:19 @ncdugasNY Reading is useful https://t.co/l7tP3EmzVV 2021-12-15 04:13:57 @cielleskye It’s a known outbreak. And yes other colleges should plan. Yes this requires a humane response and leaving might be fine for some students. But there should be a coherent plan to let some of them stay in a sensible way. 2021-12-15 04:09:07 It takes many years to establish an optimum dosing schedule for vaccines after approval, three doses are fairly common, and we haven't even gotten a chance to change up from the ancestral spike. The pandemic response has many challenges, but an evolving booster schedule is fine. 2021-12-15 04:07:05 @TimTruth1 Maybe in a dorm room with your buddies, in a state where pot is legal, around https://t.co/30FKFKDgXu or so, right before your debate team starts searching for the vending machine, this counts as "Checkmate!" 2021-12-15 04:02:09 This argument is common but beyond stupid. Yes, we got effective vaccines less than a year into a pandemic from a novel virus, which means, we're figuring out the dose scheduling as we go along. Sorry the scientists don't have a crystal ball—go invent one. https://t.co/OJkemwlC7L 2021-12-15 03:56:18 @DaveJamesKent @hc2424 I get their dilemma, but de-intensify campus=seed outbreaks elsewhere. 2021-12-15 03:54:59 @BGrueskin Well, whatever they did, they should try to see it through. 2021-12-15 03:52:43 @andrew_croxford I see mention-folk want to argue about vaccines. We can expect vaccines to greatly reduce severity, this to be mild to asymptomatic for vaxxed young people, but also see that especially for the elderly, a three shot series—like many other vaccines—seem needed. Walk and chew gum! 2021-12-15 03:48:38 @heymjh Wouldn't be surprised if it was also Omicron. 2021-12-15 03:48:12 @sebaker Not going to work, look at how Omicron is spreading. 2021-12-15 03:47:41 @BGrueskin Not ideal, but if what immunologists fear for the unboosted elderly is real, you are risking starting transmission chains while booster appointments are still hard to get, and we've barely begun to get enough older people their booster shots. 2021-12-15 03:46:14 @hc2424 I'm hearing they are actually trying to get them out. 2021-12-15 03:45:17 @jeremyfaust Meanwhile, we still ban some passports from entering the country at all. It's almost like we don't have coherent policies! 2021-12-15 03:43:30 Yeah, not fun. But Omicron breakthroughs we've seen so far in young, vaccinated people have been mild to asymptomatic. As @andrew_croxford explained, there are real reasons to think that especially without boosters, elderly might be at much more risk. https://t.co/RktIDHCAzp 2021-12-15 03:39:40 @pashulman That's actually worse, to require them to leave. A single test isn't going to catch enough people. 2021-12-15 03:38:30 I understand no university wants to deal with a wave of students testing positive, but one negative test in the past 48 hours is not going to contain this, and students going home to potentially infect family, especially grandparents, isn't a good outcome. https://t.co/goUjjFRUaH 2021-12-15 03:34:02 It seems that all the students will now be sent home? While we need more time to have conclusive answers, basic principles and lab studies indicate this variant would pose the most threat to elderly—especially if without boosters. Maybe give the students an option to stay put? 2021-12-15 03:31:00 Cornell update. Yep, as suspected an Omicron outbreak. Denmark, UK, South Africa etc. already show us what to expect for the early stages. Expect more of this—again, note this isn't the same as an unvaccinated population having, say, a Delta surge. https://t.co/f15hPRv9gR 2021-12-15 03:06:03 @grimmelm 2021-12-15 01:40:03 RT @dbrendanjohnson: This past week I did a stretch in the ICU at my rural hospital - 100% of the ICU patients were unvaccinated and COVID+ 2021-12-15 00:01:50 @taxofonas 2021-12-14 23:43:01 @CarlosdelRio7 Congratulations! 2021-12-14 23:19:30 @jabarocas @michaelmina_lab @yellingatwind So it's not even a piece that furthers our understanding of the problem. I wrote more about that in this thread. https://t.co/o0ctC2YsHU 2021-12-14 23:16:21 @jabarocas @michaelmina_lab @yellingatwind I feel your anger, Josh. But I'm talking about something else, specifically he isn't even representing the people "typical Americans" or "real Americans" as the frame goes. He's a professional writer who is an arch-conservative Catholic, mad at infant-formula. Also vaccinated. 2021-12-14 20:44:01 @michaelbd The piece ignores vaccination, though, exactly so it can do a performative push back aimed at Twitter, imo. (And succeeded!). Also, still early, but I think additional role for boosters in the stats will show up, especially because of the elderly. https://t.co/716BSGEpO1 2021-12-14 20:09:11 @BigYellowTaxi6 Compared to its leaders, yeah. The big profile names are almost all vaccinated, for sure. In contrast, lots of small-time anti-vaccine radio hosts, for example, have died because they actually were not. 2021-12-14 19:57:20 @samjlord Well yeah family isolated, sounds like all the adults are vaccinated, probably work from home and down with infant formula. Hard pass on informative. 2021-12-14 19:52:47 Yeah, he's just taking digs at "enemies" from his very, very tiny and unrepresentative corner of the world. "Real" Americans aren't busy being mad about infant formula like he is—new moms must go back to work in just six weeks, and often need dual incomes. https://t.co/BFxfB0xrJS 2021-12-14 19:33:05 It's just one piece! Nobody can publish widely without some misses. And I think we're mad at it for the wrong reason. Also, I mean, @KatherineJWu and @edyong209, among many other talented writers, are producing great steady work on the pandemic there. https://t.co/0vDqHfhT5X 2021-12-14 19:26:44 @JamesFallows Yeah there's a niche. 2021-12-14 19:25:04 Yes, but that piece isn't shedding light on that important topic, it's just generating heat for Twitter. There's definitely room for actual, sharp reporting on this, and even pieces critical of what people may perceive as overly restrictive measures. https://t.co/ucsAK4Czfh 2021-12-14 19:21:04 I'm in favor of more in-depth reporting on the actual topic and I would read first-person accounts from or interviews with people who "moved on" from the pandemic, or oppose public health measures—even if I strongly disagreed. This was like "make Twitter mad" homework assignment. 2021-12-14 19:17:49 Well, I didn't say talented but yeah, that's exactly right. This has little to do with "real America"—just performative baiting of the same professional circles he's part of, but from the other end, to get everyone mad and, well. Yes. It works for that. https://t.co/YpACoRJ8AX 2021-12-14 19:14:36 Here's the clearest tell. The author skips over the topic of vaccination. You can bet he's vaccinated. That deliberate silence is like how like Tucker Carlson demures on the topic—not because he's shy. It's almost solely the foot-soldiers of the anti-vaccine movement who die. 2021-12-14 19:09:27 Problem with that Atlantic piece many are mad about is not that the author represents views of Americans who oppose public health measures or are ignoring COVID—it's that it *does not*. It's a typical finely-tuned *professional* performance of "I'm real America". Uninformative. https://t.co/fI6qxCHlqI 2021-12-14 19:01:14 @RRPBill @michaelmina_lab You don't sound like the writer at all, though. You're vaccinated, boosted, and gradually shifted your views and behavior. Makes sense! Also, I don't think such outdoor stadium events represented much risk for big outbreaks, and have been writing exactly that since Spring 2020. 2021-12-14 18:58:32 @Edward_Dominico Great example of what I mean. "Triggered" is just a buzzword you picked up, I guess to try to sound smart? Signal a tribe? I mean, feel free to do that, but that kind of performative word usage is lazy, and doesn't shed a light on anything and is the hallmark of non-leaders. 2021-12-14 18:52:10 @phemfrog @michaelmina_lab I actually agree with you the topic is important, what you describe is very real and it deserves careful reporting. This just wasn't it. Lots of buzzwords very much aimed at the other side of the professional/social class he is part of, while falsely claiming to be typical. 2021-12-14 18:25:31 @michaelmina_lab Give me solid reporting into places where measures are opposed or ignored, where cases have surged and even points of views that are discouraging. Sure! This person is performing “aw, schucks you coastal elites” as part of his professional niche, in the most useless way possible. 2021-12-14 18:19:46 @michaelmina_lab I’m all for publishing a wide range of views. But I think that piece doesn’t represent much of anything. It certainly doesn’t represent most Americans—even those who oppose some measures. He’s performing “I represent real America”—as a professional act, and not doing it well. 2021-12-14 17:00:39 @234SimonSays The only impersonation that concerns me is using jargony word salad and selective omission of facts to disguise crankery as knowledge. The part that should concern you is that it'll end—even smart people can be misled during confusing times, but reality eventually shines a light. 2021-12-14 16:04:24 @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey It takes real effort and investigation to tease out such complicated things, and we don't have it. Seems credible that China knows of other, likely earlier cases, and surely, they've done the blood-bank testing etc. I'm not sure how we confidently conclude much, given censorship. 2021-12-14 16:01:52 @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey I mean, the Wuhan CDC is right next to market with an extensive bat?/virus collection effort itself, and there are so many open questions about it. Alternatively, the market could be the source and have cryptic transmission all the way to unconnected sources, before us noticing. 2021-12-14 15:59:29 @zhihuachen @MichaelWorobey As I say in the thread, I appreciate the effort of everyone, but I don't think the first revealed-to-us cases can make that much progress *either way* without some new data, given how China has been stonewalling, and how much of a mess even the WHO list has been the whole time. 2021-12-14 15:54:35 @edgarageous @jonst0kes Yeah, half-baked color-by-number stats can be terrible, as are simplistic or reductionist teaching of humanities or social science. There's a tension between more rounded education and specialization, and K-12 is probably where you'd invest to make it possible to help address it. 2021-12-14 15:47:02 Both this meme and public health authorities can communicate effectively about vaccines and transmission. https://t.co/OIe781a1s1 2021-12-14 15:02:24 @jonst0kes Those are often the worst kind of statistics courses, though. P-value is an academic publishing gatekeeper and often not conducive to good statistic thinking. Understanding sampling, different distributions, confounding and selection... Much more useful imo. 2021-12-14 14:52:33 @jonst0kes The humanities, as an exploration of the human condition, are enriching for everyone. The problem is the academic job market, which is a whole different ball game in my view. Yeah, lack of weeder classes isn’t the problem there. 2021-12-14 14:49:56 @jonst0kes That doesn’t make them correct courses, if you wanted to put in a weeder and/or something to buttress skills of humanities people. They’d be bottom of the list tbh. I think this is the opposite of “if only Mark Zuckerberg had some humanities classes.” 2021-12-14 14:43:06 @jonst0kes This is what I thought because linear algebra wouldn’t likely be suggested by anyone who knows some math and humanities. It’s just pulling out math “brands” performatively. I suspect he heard ML uses linear algebra so tada must be a weeder topic or otherwise useful? It’s neither. https://t.co/DB2SbFC6cv 2021-12-14 02:57:05 @234SimonSays Most recent letter of yours? That’s the one pinned? 2021-12-14 00:29:59 RT @BrianRWasik: 1 year later in Kalamazoo: https://t.co/RNdfpAuwrE 2021-12-13 21:20:26 More log-scale graphs instead of linear ones—with the proper explanation—and replacing relative measures like “vaccine efficacy” with other ways of conveying the same information would really help, in my view. Matching method of communication to what it needs to express matters. https://t.co/nQIVVpgRSe 2021-12-13 19:48:07 @234SimonSays Congrats, not-AJ on diversifying your media thumbnails! I do wish I had more mitigations against people who try to fix whatever's going on with their lives by cranking out word salad to well-meaning people at a time of high anxiety. Degree-chaining as a fix was less harmful. https://t.co/67eZoVQjcq 2021-12-13 17:22:12 RT @ezraklein: Helluva project here from my colleagues at @nytopinion. A glimpse into how the climate crisis is changing every country in t… 2021-12-13 16:56:08 @234SimonSays Hi no-no-not-AJ. I actually do warn people in a timely manner on real threats and best mitigations, rather than word-salading my way into conning a community of well-meaning people with valid concerns. Life is full of choices and things that can't be fixed by degree-chaining. 2021-12-13 05:42:36 @LisaRothstein5 Yeah 2021-12-13 04:51:52 Yes but from the statistics and looks of it, it didn’t really happen widely enough. And now there’s a logistics bottleneck. Need pop-up clinics again, soon targeting more vulnerable groups. https://t.co/cRjhhWvFgt 2021-12-13 04:50:04 @shantonusen @rossgrady Once upon a time, kids, all stories started with < 2021-12-13 04:36:39 Seems to be the case in many places. Booster by appointment seem to be pretty hard to come by for weeks or more. This isn’t good. Again, the elderly need these shots most and are least likely to manage the hustle required to make something happen. https://t.co/k0nLgF89Yf 2021-12-13 04:27:28 @KatzOnEarth Check very early Chinese scientific papers by their top authors, before the censorship on this topic started. Market as amplifying event and not source isn’t a new claim. That’s what they long said. I don’t have a claim about what they’re doing now. I mean, how do we judge? 2021-12-13 04:23:45 @ecogabriel1 Well that could also be… flu season. 2021-12-13 04:23:02 To emphasize: I don’t think first *known* case is dispositive either way. First known case could be non-market, but market still be the source and vice versa—even if there had been a real investigation. Cryptic transmission, lost chains. And we don’t even have that investigation. https://t.co/wjQB66D2dp 2021-12-13 04:18:41 For some reason there is very little interest in his case. Not sure why. https://t.co/HehAiSNyL3 2021-12-13 04:10:42 @KatzOnEarth Official Chinese position is stop asking. 2021-12-13 04:09:41 @KatzOnEarth Someone find those credibly reported November cases, that would help. Motivated reasoning, not so much. 2021-12-13 04:07:18 @KatzOnEarth Also compatible with market being an amplifying event—as Chinese scientist long claimed. Or China hiding cases—the list they gave still doesn’t make sense, has unexplained issues. Or Wuhan CDC with lab, few hundreds yards from that market being involved. Or market being source. 2021-12-13 04:00:33 So I don’t think known first case is decisive either way, given the ongoing coverup. But a study of how the initial report played out on social media and media, and see if it’s exactly reverse in visibility, tone and implication now that facts are reversed? That’d be interesting. 2021-12-13 03:54:20 There was credible reporting China knows of November cases. What little they told us of December cases is contradictory, incoherent and incomplete. I don’t think it’s possible to make sound conclusions. Their scientists long said market was an amplifying event. But we don’t know. 2021-12-13 03:49:51 But more. If you read his thread, he correctly points out first *known* case isn’t that dispositive. But that’s not how the media coverage played out. It will be interesting to see if what they considered so important before is seen as just as important now that it is reversed. 2021-12-13 03:47:11 Plot twist for the Science article that generated many headlines about the initial known case being connected to the Wuhan market. As author graciously acknowledges here, the internet researchers—so-called sleuths—have shown the claim to be wrong. Will there be new headlines? https://t.co/PlAogWZYZS 2021-12-13 03:32:33 @iskander Sigh 2021-12-13 02:12:25 @jkentauthor Yeah, there seems to be possibilities if one hustles but… this should be better organized. 2021-12-13 02:11:28 @12FreeBeer The problem started recently. Weeks ago, it wasn’t an issue. 2021-12-13 02:08:45 @H_X_S @emphimy 2021-12-13 02:05:43 @Hey_LVC Yeah 2021-12-13 01:53:37 @emphimy That’s great! 2021-12-13 01:52:23 https://t.co/dlinIR3Vqz 2021-12-13 01:51:11 @cyrusshahpar46 Do check the replies to this thread about bottlenecks in scheduling boosters popping up in lots of places. https://t.co/G9acvuKCu1 2021-12-13 01:49:51 Seems like it, yeah. https://t.co/jda7EoyIZB 2021-12-13 01:48:54 @smb_stats 2021-12-13 01:48:26 This isn’t good! This is essentially a question of delivery, not supply. And the elderly are least likely to be able to hustle like this, but most vulnerable and in need of a booster before holidays. https://t.co/NU5XvEQdKj 2021-12-13 01:45:11 @ScottGottliebMD It seems hardest to navigate for the elderly, from the sound of it. Appointments essentially impossible in many places but if you hustle, you can maybe manage a walk-in. Seems really unwise, no? Christmas is just weeks away, so boosters needed now especially with travel. 2021-12-13 01:40:33 @mleveck That’s what I include in logistics: the whole delivery chain. 2021-12-13 01:38:42 Okay so bottleneck problem for regular child shots as well? https://t.co/DCIIxs93Wg 2021-12-13 01:36:50 @notdred Eek 2021-12-13 01:30:05 We have huge supply! This is just logistics failing. https://t.co/jmK9KEJGcs 2021-12-13 01:27:43 Well good point. Anyway this seems like an urgent issue to get some clarity on. https://t.co/GW367WPYnX 2021-12-13 01:24:04 Despite huge supply in the US, I’m hearing from people in many states that it’s not easy for the elderly to get a booster appointment now. Many places are full, apparently for weeks. I can’t confirm all the reports but seems important to look into? Especially outside few cities. https://t.co/hk74IZNMOX 2021-12-13 01:11:27 @hilzoy Also, "affinity maturation" is the most amazing topic, just broadly speaking from my own intellectual interests. Optimization/recognition problems are generally interesting as a category. 2021-12-13 00:55:27 @hilzoy I’ve been recommended this—not completely “for dummies” so to speak, but could work especially after two years of pandemic learning through osmosis. https://t.co/tMkEoO31wq 2021-12-13 00:17:34 @Bexter211 We have essentially little to no idea, yet. 2021-12-12 20:49:26 @234SimonSays @jbakcoleman @xolotl But dear I-am-definitely-not-AJ -but-I-know-his-middle-name, at some point the mechanism you propose has become visible in the epi data—if it’s anything more than an edge case. That’s how people could figure out the virus is airborne even if they weren’t physicists. It shows up. 2021-12-12 20:22:10 As noted above, but worth emphasizing. The issue I’m highlighting is about proper reporting and transparency (not bite or not!). Taiwanese authorities are researching the exact transmission route. Again, kudos for their transparency. https://t.co/K9CHovkdNp 2021-12-12 20:04:11 @stgoldst Aviation is really interesting in this way... They had the same problems—very human to talk yourself into it's probably nothing. They have a global culture and rules of no-blame reporting, people practically raised up for doing so even after a screw-up. It's something to ponder. 2021-12-12 20:02:11 @stgoldst Wouldn't disagree! They are looking into it, as noted in the tweet you reply. I think the key here is the need to report all these things, and also not ignore incidents, and then resign and ignore symptoms for many days. Kudos to their transparency, but also highlights an issue. 2021-12-12 19:56:27 @BadScienceHead1 @mattyglesias *hi expert* they are looking into the exact path but there's a reason bites are reported—checking rather than assuming is good when stakes are high. (Besides, transmission can differ: some respiratory for humans diseases are enteric for other species etc.) https://t.co/LoblOEIdeR 2021-12-12 19:14:52 @234SimonSays @CT_Bergstrom @jbloom_lab @sarahcobey Hi most-definitely-not-AJ, you know we can see the multi-year epidemiological data? Yes, you can fool some people for a bit, but you can't keep ignoring real life data. Yes, mainstream science has had some failures, but that doesn't turn every crank automatically into Galileo. 2021-12-12 18:32:42 @jbakcoleman @xolotl @234SimonSays Therefore, I feel free to ignore two years of epidemiological data because dolphins told me so. 2021-12-12 18:17:44 They're looking into it. Could also be cross-contamination. Point is one should track these and not assume "everything will be fine"—as her supervisor seems to have done? If she had not been symptomatic, she might have transmitted and and we'd never know. https://t.co/Qw9xly5cRy 2021-12-12 17:43:53 @rcrsv @ariehkovler Could be cross-contamination. They are looking into it. That said, one has to report bites as well, as per the rules—can't assume something isn't a path since that's how you'll miss it if it is. Classic ascertainment bias. 2021-12-12 17:41:24 @234SimonSays Oh, hi AJ's sock! Your hiding skills are just about as good as your immunology. Crankery can work for a time, especially at a time like this, but you need to up these skills if you want it to continue. Maybe yet another stint at grad school? 2021-12-12 16:33:11 @oliverburkeman There *was* a lot of interest in it! It did not reach the public discussion probably because it didn't seem to do much. 2021-12-12 16:19:28 Confused about Omicron? Severity, contagiousness, antibodies and more? What type of data can answer what question, and what we're still waiting for? This is an *excellent* explainer, by @jbloom_lab and @sarahcobey. https://t.co/CzK2ovJtnK https://t.co/yOqt5b86qO 2021-12-12 15:47:54 @colourmeamused_ @Peacockg Cross-contamination also seems possible. The latest reports say they are investigating. (Which is good!). 2021-12-12 15:42:32 Fundamentals of any data analysis. The first question to ask isn't what is this dataset telling us. It is, always, what exactly is this dataset? What's in it and why and how. This isn't easy at all! But very good advice below. https://t.co/ITrPjaVWru 2021-12-12 15:37:54 @ariehkovler (To be clear: this is a thorny and universal problem in all fields that require extra levels of safety because of potentially catastrophic consequences. Authoritarian settings may well be even worse, but nobody is immune to this). 2021-12-12 15:36:17 @ariehkovler Then there is the issue, highlighted here, that they are not always reported. If the lab researcher had a barely or non-symptomatic case, she could have transmitted without even knowing she was sick. Sounds like the many days of symptoms finally got her to do the right thing. 2021-12-12 15:31:58 @ChrisLefflerMD @MichaelWorobey My current conclusion is that, despite a lot of really valuable work and sleuthing by many parties (and I do think it is valuable!), we still lack clarity. There is really credible reporting China knows of November cases, for example. What we need is actual transparency by them. 2021-12-12 15:29:33 @ChrisLefflerMD @MichaelWorobey Problem is the confusion over early cases: the first *known* case China will tell us (Chen) and first *actual* case are not the same thing. I identified many contradictions between papers from China, WHO report and news reporting just by making a table in a few hours. No clarity. 2021-12-12 15:27:36 @ChrisLefflerMD @MichaelWorobey Thank you. The "Drastic" researchers had said this last April/May, and I also appreciate Dr. Worobey's work, and apparently Drastic folks have even more info on this case today? However, I am not sure this would matter as much either way, except to highlight how little we know. 2021-12-12 15:16:12 Also note, even in a democracy with transparency, this is how this lab infection went down. Aviation has no-fault, no blame mishap reporting because of this thorny problem—to not report and hope for the best is a very human impulse. (Again known virus, no pandemic threat here). https://t.co/6j5tzynFMb 2021-12-12 15:12:28 I’d say definitely avoid bat bites. (Bat field researchers I interviewed said they made their protocols more strict after the pandemic). Remember this was a lab researching viruses, and it’s likely that this is a mouse model—it’s genetically modified, not the regular critter. https://t.co/QXx8TrFvXL 2021-12-12 14:59:01 @stephenkinsella 2021-12-12 05:47:15 @mwash1983 Very different dynamics pre-vaccines 2021-12-12 05:36:17 @angryarlmom Better reading comprehension 2021-12-12 05:26:58 Also: remember likely mild in those with immunity doesn’t mean mild for those with no vaccination or prior infection, and antibody evasion like this variant is especially a threat to the elderly. Boosters greatly help restore the antibody response. 2021-12-12 05:24:32 Is this the first big US Omicron outbreak? Details pending but the Cornell campus is heavily vaccinated so I hope it follows the Norway superspreader trajectory—all asymptomatic or mild. (Some sort of social event? Many chains?) Check if elderly loved ones have their boosters! https://t.co/gxjRYeG4oQ 2021-12-12 02:49:05 RT @AbraarKaran: This clip is hilarious @StephenAtHome - esp the last part The only thing that is a bigger joke is the immense delays in… 2021-12-12 02:41:55 (This is different scenario than a virus that’s not known about or is novel—researcher already vaccinated against it, lab has specific tests for it so can identify in time, etc. The threat was a local outbreak in otherwise no COVID Taiwan.) 2021-12-12 02:38:19 Kudos to Taiwan for transparency. Lab researcher (bitten by mice) got infected with Sars-Cov-2. Unfortunately, it was not reported to relevant authorities as it should have been. Fortunately, researcher vaccinated and case got caught later, so no outbreak. https://t.co/A08Aly3kzC https://t.co/l5uBx97knF 2021-12-12 01:07:30 RT @cpoetzscher: Travel bans may make sense in very limited circumstances, eg early in an outbreak to buy more time to understand things. T… 2021-12-12 01:01:09 RT @courierjournal: A look at The Courier Journal's Sunday front page after a series of devastating tornadoes ravaged the state. https://t.… 2021-12-11 23:58:33 @ENirenberg "at least with existing vaccines" is the clue, and rest is left to reader as an exercise—best I can make of it. 2021-12-11 23:19:28 @tmichaels1 @mark_riedl @FiloSottile @rgoers @creativecommons (Best outcome: a comic from him on becoming the lingua franca of the geek world). 2021-12-11 23:17:56 @tmichaels1 @mark_riedl @FiloSottile @rgoers @creativecommons Most definitely asking Randall how he feels that his friends and fans find his work so recognizable that we have become relaxed about the letter of the legal, because we think the spirit is obviously there. (Like the celebrities who do not need the last name, Madonna, Cher...) 2021-12-11 18:56:49 @linseymarr @DFisman This is excellent! Thank you both! 2021-12-11 18:51:39 RT @linseymarr: Thanks @DFisman for promoting Tang's and my commentary on aligning transmission routes with transfer mechanisms and exposur… 2021-12-11 18:50:42 @jbarro (I think this dynamic has been playing out on topic after topic tbh). 2021-12-11 18:48:34 @jbarro Yep, a version of nut-picking. Plus, write vaporware articles denying reality and attribute people's discomfort on topic X solely to misinformation, Matt's crazy followers, lunatics, people who hate science etc. It's good for Twitter, bad for reality (which always catches up). 2021-12-11 18:33:11 @jbarro And then, with time, getting weaker in substantive defenses, the vaporware wagoncirclers point to a variety of (actually existing) issues: that a mad, rude and lunatic fringe does attach themselves to any issue for which there is significant mainstream failure. So it goes. 2021-12-11 18:30:22 @jbarro And the defensive, and frankly much of it vaporware, wagon-circling by the mainstream when there are obviously so many factual issues anyone impartial with a bit of curiosity and critical thinking can see makes the mad even madder—masks, lab risks, airborne, boosters... 2021-12-11 18:27:57 @jbarro It can both be true but also total cop-out. Many things where mainstream institutions fail—acknowledging when/how masks work, the virus is airborne, that lab incidents happen and there's major cover-up from China and big open questions etc.—also attract people who are just mad. 2021-12-11 18:23:32 @RADMKenBernard @POTUS @nytimes @WHCOS @DavidAKesslerMD @CDCDirector Thank you. 2021-12-11 18:18:30 Been months since my original piece on this, but I want to add this thoughtful, reflective personal thread here on how vaccine hesitancy and misinformation interact, especially in the context of peers and trust in institutions—thread by a researcher. https://t.co/RymYKcTt66 2021-12-11 17:54:22 @RachelEMoran Thank you so much for your thoughtful reflection. Okay if I retweet this? 2021-12-11 17:11:47 @felixsalmon 2021-12-11 16:43:20 @drkuehnert What might it be? The Delta wave in SA had largely receded before Omicron rose, so we did not really get co-circulation. Not sure we have head-to-head comparison of severity in seronegatives yet, either. 2021-12-11 15:47:15 Adding useful thread by South African scientist. Need another week or two for more confidence, but shaping up so far, as many said, as antibody evasion, with previously infected/vaccinated largely protected from severity subject to age (elderly vulnerable), immunocompetence etc. https://t.co/RxgfX5di1E 2021-12-11 15:42:34 @lisa_iannattone Instead of answering a caricature, I will resend the best essay on this, which covers all of this, including antigenic shift like we’re seeing now and the relationship to severity—once again fully matching the epi facts on the ground. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI 2021-12-11 15:36:25 @FiloSottile @rgoers @mark_riedl In case it wasn’t clear (kinda assumed people know the graph by heart): https://t.co/AIoL2r46dP 2021-12-11 15:35:26 @CthulhuEgg @FiloSottile @rgoers @mark_riedl Of course! (Graph via and text by…) XKCD is like lingua franca of all this. 2021-12-11 15:26:24 Local journalism is the fabric. https://t.co/UVDE66KtbS 2021-12-11 15:04:36 @FiloSottile @rgoers This is what we’re doing *plus* not paying the person maintaining that part holding it up. I’ve written about it enough times that I can probably just do a ctrl-F and a light edit on an old piece and republish for the latest catastrophe. (Graph and text by @mark_riedl ) https://t.co/cteynj2KQi 2021-12-11 14:24:50 RT @waiswap: 1st share the vaccines 2021-12-11 02:09:09 @zachlipton Hey, there is an obvious messenger RNA crossover here, too. On how jdni:ldap://… needs its own ${} nanolipids for delivery. (I’ll show myself out). 2021-12-11 01:33:12 “Sanitize your inputs”=“It’s airborne”. cc:@xkcd https://t.co/p0flO8parH 2021-12-11 01:14:21 RT @rlove: Little Bobby JNDI, we call him. 2021-12-11 01:12:20 @chvancooten 2021-12-11 01:04:57 Also parents of minecraft players, do note. https://t.co/vv0j3EJ6b5 2021-12-11 01:02:29 Patch Friday. https://t.co/4pQfu7IgIx 2021-12-11 00:43:57 Starts with: “But, if you work for a company that is using Java-based software that uses log4j you should immediately read the section on how to mitigate and protect your systems before reading the rest.” https://t.co/5gYxClTCP7 2021-12-10 19:09:47 RT @syramadad: COVID-19 transmission is common in households, and it happens fast among families and roommates living together. If you pre… 2021-12-10 19:06:11 @ryanhealy No, that's the Merck one. 2021-12-10 19:05:44 @rak3re Just not true, one of them has massive immune escape. 2021-12-10 19:05:06 Also masks, more cautious behavior, etc. Look at pediatric flu deaths for the past ~four years in the US, for example. Very striking—virtually disappeared last year. Still, it's early and we don't fully understand some of this. Counting on it seems unwise. https://t.co/Hrpfu8n2Hi https://t.co/Jyvm7W9dck 2021-12-10 18:57:23 Not just approval—mass production. The real question usually isn't when approval comes, but how much of it is available then. Also: should go to countries with outbreaks, not be hoarded by wealthy ones without. (Pfizer's antiviral is variant independent). https://t.co/5BOTKwYUrP 2021-12-10 18:49:43 @GeordieStory If we had no other issues, and had all that, and only Omicron, it would be easier to be sanguine about it, I guess. Health-care is not a system with a lot of slack, and is already pretty stressed out, and we have 1000+ deaths daily from the ongoing Delta wave, and winter is here. 2021-12-10 18:45:14 Plus, US already has a Delta wave, thousand+ deaths daily, lowish and uneven rates of vaccination and healthcare system is stressed. Even the mildest Omicron wave, if big enough, will cause strain because it is *in addition.* Yes, everybody is tired, but the virus doesn't care. 2021-12-10 18:40:09 Also: even if Omicron cases in vaccinated/infected people are overwhelmingly mildbut symptomatic, a huge wave can still be a strain. If a tiny percent of those are severe that can add up quickly if the wave is big enough. Remember it is in *addition* to other seasonal viruses. 2021-12-10 18:19:48 @AndrewE_Dunn @RobertLKruse oh ffs 2021-12-10 16:41:00 RT @CuseWaterBoy: The highlighted part is exactly how you explain the risk of covid with some detailed nuance 2021-12-10 15:51:38 @mdc_martinus @BorisZuchner @TheAtlantic Thank you. And indeed. (Some countries did take it more seriously, though). 2021-12-10 15:36:25 RT @DrEmilyRSmith: .@zeynep perfectly outlines a whole suite of evidence-based actions urgently needed in nursing homes. We have the right… 2021-12-10 14:45:30 Thus, a mild plea for being specific, rather than the "it's over" vs "it will never be over" wars. Really appreciate the essay because of that. Explaining things in a bit of detail and treating the public like adults seems much more productive. *ducks* 2021-12-10 14:42:34 So essentially, "most vaccinated/infected people will experience a milder course" can be true without the virus being intrinsically milder, and the threat can change with age, immunocompetence and virus evolution. This is fairly mundane, by the way. 2021-12-10 14:38:35 Even things we consider mild (common colds) cause fatal outbreaks in nursing homes. And other respiratory diseases besides flu do cause significant burden. Generally mild for younger populations does not equal "does not matter." We've now added one more. https://t.co/91CyXmeyzx https://t.co/ZtelA5Etad 2021-12-10 14:33:46 People keep assuming almost everyone in the world is seropositive (vaccination or infection). That is just not true: the remaining numbers are still large enough. Plus, as with other diseases, elderly have weaker response plus there is antigenic evolution. https://t.co/XfddVsASiZ 2021-12-10 14:31:10 @asymmetricinfo Yes, and in large numbers and in many places. As @dylanhmorris keeps saying, people keep underestimating the seronegative population. When you run the math, it is actually not at all small. Absolutely large enough to stress health-care, at a minimum. 2021-12-10 14:29:46 But it's not winter 2020! We have vaccines, antivirals, rapid tests, and a greater understanding of its airborne transmission. A lot more tools to dampen its spread, and also to make sure people encounter it with as robust an immune response as possible: vaccines, boosters... 2021-12-10 14:26:41 For Omicron: for all we know, if that were the version we faced first in 2020, it would cause just as severe and maybe even worse disease. Or not! Unclear. We don't know yet because we haven't yet seen reports of it impact on completely unvaccinated/uninfected populations. 2021-12-10 14:23:52 That's also why "worry about the flu" instead was such a wrong reaction in winter of 2020—a novel virus released into a population with no prior immunity is a *huge* threat. With time—vaccination and infection—the nature of that threat changes. (No, doesn't get to zero: changes). 2021-12-10 14:22:05 Great essay by @andrewpekosz on "mildness". Again: viruses don't have to evolve to be less intrinsically virulent: selection is on transmission. However, as we gain immunity, we experience milder disease on average—but age & https://t.co/vQbVbYD0NF https://t.co/2OYL4bf5CB 2021-12-10 13:37:12 RT @AaronRichterman: Same is true for transmission. Symptomatic ppl are more contagious, differentially distributed by vaccination status,… 2021-12-10 13:26:47 @deeptabhattacha @ENirenberg @dylanhmorris …But my experience over the pandemic is that we don’t talk about it enough. Things keep going back to this: not paying attention to the whole life-cycle of the data generation. Before asking what the data says, the first question should be a deep examination of “why this data?”. 2021-12-10 13:24:48 @deeptabhattacha @ENirenberg @dylanhmorris I want to a textbook called “Mind the Denominator”, to be a whole semester a mandatory course series for anyone dealing with any statistical data. I used to teach intro to stats/methods etc. Social sciences call these selection effects. We talk about it, of course… 2021-12-10 13:14:41 @cyrusshahpar46 In some states, people are reporting pharmacy schedules are full or the same problem as earlier: elderly living alone trying to manage online scheduling, asking for accounts or insurance information. Given age curves, waning, immune evasion, that just seems like a huge miss. 2021-12-10 13:12:13 @cyrusshahpar46 Thank you! I’m hearing from a lot of people that residence of retirement communities in assisted-living facilities aren’t always having an easy time scheduling a booster either. A big push *going to them* is probably the biggest bang for the buck effort now. Delta is also here. 2021-12-10 13:09:23 @BenMazer 2x a week outsourced testing (waiting a day or two for the results) may seem easier but it’s essentially close to useless, tbh. Test at the door is as much time as washing hands and will actually work. I know the work & 2021-12-10 13:05:26 @BenMazer How much work is it to have a case, let alone an outbreak? A rapid test takes 60 seconds and then waiting for ten minutes. (Can even do stuff not interacting with residents). I realize the way we pay healthcare aides is appalling, and agree with you that’s the core problem. 2021-12-10 02:29:33 RT @nytopinion: “Omicron has demonstrated a propensity for superspreading," says @zeynep, “so places where vulnerable populations live toge… 2021-12-10 02:07:06 @AlexWithAK @riteaid Yeah I’m sorry it shouldn’t be like that! 2021-12-10 02:06:37 @AlexWithAK 2021-12-10 01:53:45 RT @Redistrict: By our estimate, neutral/commission maps in the blue states of CA, CO, NJ, VA and WA (93 seats total) will end up costing D… 2021-12-10 01:47:13 Always great to talk with @TonyaMosley of @hereandnow, but this was a also a shared frustration episode. (Yes, for example, why not rapid tests for very cheap or free? Why not mail them to everyone? And so on…) https://t.co/pSxHZzKFyO 2021-12-10 00:19:40 @NourSharara It’s been amazing watching the leaves change, too. 2021-12-10 00:17:31 @rid1tweets Thank you for the log! Much appreciated. 2021-12-10 00:03:48 RT @epi_dude: This piece by ⁦@zeynep⁩ is spot on. A huge percentage of COVID deaths have been among nursing home residents. To prevent as m… 2021-12-09 23:16:25 @nikiru @sporeMOH Thank you! 2021-12-09 22:40:41 @dylanhmorris Commandeer all the vats. 2021-12-09 22:32:15 @theolddelewis Yeah, I hear you. I didn't think I could run, though I'm a lifelong exerciser. Always did other stuff besides running. I took up trail running after the pandemic—just to get more outdoor time. Turns out I can run on trail and similar surfaces. But biking is great! 2021-12-09 22:30:43 @MAOHare Thank you! 2021-12-09 22:30:25 @pbleic Central park, the reservoir loop. (And my usual running route!) 2021-12-09 21:43:58 My evening run route is… not very conducive to running. I just want to stop and stare. https://t.co/Zf1NCAm9oe 2021-12-09 19:55:40 @virginiahughes 2021-12-09 19:49:51 RT @virginiahughes: This resonates with me as I head off to my 97-year-old grandfather’s funeral this weekend. He spent huge parts of the l… 2021-12-09 19:15:35 RT @McMillanopoly: ‘We have seen this movie before’ and we know more now on what precautions to take https://t.co/TEGkOuRVd6 thank you @her… 2021-12-09 18:19:26 @ChristoTheran @nataliexdean Quite the opposite. Almost everyone, if not everyone, may well have been vaccinated and/or infected by some calculations. Not sure the exact number of truly seronegative people in that province are—some disputes over it—but it is not that high, relatively speaking. 2021-12-09 18:02:49 @mindstalk Ah yikes, correct. Thank you! 2021-12-09 17:49:08 Another excellent explainer from @nataliexdean. (Lego version soon?) This is also exactly why we do not, yet, know the intrinsic virulence of Omicron—what it would mean for someone neither vaccinated nor infected before. Two years in, multiple mediators of cases and severity. https://t.co/I3G40w6FSR 2021-12-09 17:38:14 This isn't how it should be! I've been hearing from people who tell me it's actually not that straightforward for the elderly to schedule their boosters—depending on where they are. Even without Omicron, there are a lot of reasons for them to do so, ASAP. https://t.co/oHtebGOIso 2021-12-09 17:12:20 RT @leorahorwitzmd: I could not possibly agree more with everything in here. ⁦@zeynep⁩ Opinion | Omicron Threatens the Old. Nursing Homes M… 2021-12-09 16:32:39 RT @andrew_croxford: Specifically, a potential threat to care/nursing homes is discussed. If the hurdles preventing omicron infiltrating ar… 2021-12-09 16:04:51 Yes, absolutely and it is part of the package proposed in the article. Lots of people say it's expensive but hospitalizations and illness are expensive—and cruel and inhumane, the way we go about it. https://t.co/a0vVjUnCI1 2021-12-09 16:03:29 @heysciencesam @MCBazacoPhD @baym I responded because the quote tweet is clearly misrepresenting even the tweet, let alone my very public views on this, and kinda weird wasn't corrected but happens.Quote-tweet is great for lazy dunking, which doesn't matter to me tbh, but I believe in politely engaging, once. 2021-12-09 15:59:14 @heysciencesam @MCBazacoPhD @baym For sure, my NYT article goes on and on about mistrust (deliberately fostered by politicians/grifters, medical experience/trauma, insurance issues, etc.) as key issue, and needle phobia is but one factor and id'ed as such—still a thing in the mix. But my tweet wasn't about that! 2021-12-09 14:39:06 RT @BadDataTakes: I've been very vocal about what we don't know about Omicron, but we have to remember that we DO actually know some things… 2021-12-09 14:28:59 @KIDSFIR91979351 We didn't have vaccines, antivirals, rapid-tests and a much more extensive understanding of disease transmission two years ago, and it was a disastrous idea then. 2021-12-09 14:14:12 @skipmontanaro Not clear that's the case, yet but the key issue identified so far is its ability to evade neutralizing antibodies from vaccination or infection. That can also lead to spread. 2021-12-09 13:34:25 Boosters, rapid tests, ventilation, air-filtering, better masks, BETTER PAY FOR STAFF, paid sick-leave, symptom monitoring, antivirals, outbreak protocols etc. are all available, and should be what we do. The elderly are not society's leftovers and social support is crucial. 2021-12-09 13:31:26 I'll repeat again. As I've long argued, our nursing home and hospital policies of isolation and no-visits are cruel, inhumane and indefensible. They should be replaced by sensible, pro-active protective measures, with isolation as a last and *temporary* resort if all else fails. https://t.co/njksFMflfx 2021-12-09 13:28:52 @alexandrosM I'm going off from our interactions here. If I may, the quote tweet isn't our friend most of the time. (Not excluding myself). 2021-12-09 13:24:37 @alexandrosM Okay! The whole article is on why isolating the elderly is the wrong response—should be a last, temporary, very short-term resort after extensive effort to avoid it. I think the last two years have been cruel and mishandled especially for nursing home/retirement communities. 2021-12-09 13:22:37 RT @andrew_croxford: In this article, the case is made for rapid third dose administration in the most elderly as matter of urgency. Proud… 2021-12-09 13:21:36 @alexandrosM I'll just say it one last time, reacting with your tribal instinct is exactly how people get things wrong and that's why I joked about getting high on your own supply. You are reacting to a caricature in your head. 2021-12-09 13:20:08 @alexandrosM You did not read the article. You didn't even read the tweet which says don't isolate. Taking action now is exactly what's needed to avoid more isolation and lock-downs. Your do nothing approach will simply lead to a lot of outbreaks and totalizing, terrible isolation policies. 2021-12-09 13:18:12 @jjcalles And I oppose the knee-jerk isolation and propose policies so they don't just end up with more isolating total lock-downs, but can instead access social support. You did not read the article. 2021-12-09 13:15:09 @jjcalles You did not read a word of the article. 2021-12-09 13:14:07 @KindAndUnblind All of which I call for in the article. You are right. 2021-12-09 13:06:49 Five separate lab studies indicate effectiveness of antibodies produced by two vaccine doses are severely compromised or wiped out by Omicron. For younger people, may not be as big a deal. (Still to be seen!). For elderly, who lose T cell population with age, it's a huge threat! https://t.co/hvBv8Pdkrp 2021-12-09 12:55:15 There's much to learn about Omicron, but we know exactly why it threatens the elderly whose immune systems are different. Nursing homes must act *now*, and not by isolating and locking down the elderly, but by enacting protocols to keep the virus out. New: https://t.co/Ejjqwnt99n https://t.co/YIaOZVpLqW 2021-12-09 04:27:28 RT @mbrookerhk: “To suggest that “Hong Kongers risk harsh penalties if they protest in public” is not only incorrect but also scaremongerin… 2021-12-09 04:14:14 @rak3re How do you not do this on the fly with a novel virus and a pandemic? Many vaccines adjust dosing based on post-approval studies, to figure out optimum dosing schedule. Three isn’t uncommon. 2021-12-09 04:09:45 @RadioFreeTom Okay. But I’m objecting to the “nothing was known” quote there. As soon as it was identified, the immune evasion part was identified as well. Maybe the coverage isn’t sane (totally possible) but the framing that “nothing was known” isn’t correct. 2021-12-09 04:07:51 @Mitch___Lowe @RadioFreeTom We had *five* lab studies in last 24 hours every one of which showing neutralizing antibodies from the 2x vaccinated are severely or completely wiped out against this variant. Not square one as there is more to the immune system and lab isn’t epi but.. It’s a thing. 2021-12-09 04:01:52 @RadioFreeTom Some variants did create alarmist coverage based on nothing, tbh. Makes it harder to figure out when the threat is real. I got worked up over exactly three so far: Alpha, Delta & 2021-12-09 03:59:44 @RadioFreeTom I don’t know about the reporting but the reality is: “yeah, we know a fire has started but will it go out on its own or burn down the block? We don’t know.” That is not exactly a let’s wait till we know for sure situation. One can treat the public like adults and explain it. 2021-12-09 03:54:14 @RadioFreeTom If anything, the biggest problem we’ve had is how late we are to react and identifying threats. Makes everything much harder to control. Like all exponential processes, which include fires, early action is much more valuable. 2021-12-09 03:52:56 @RadioFreeTom This was out before it got the Omicron name. That early. With such things, you can’t nail the final outcome before epi data, but you can identify threat. Waiting is like waiting for the house to completely catch on fire to react to the small fire. Yeah maybe it’ll go out anyway. https://t.co/99SmEsqhOX 2021-12-09 03:50:54 @RadioFreeTom Then you’re listening to the wrong experts. There is some thing genuinely worrying here. What they should say is we don’t yet know where in the spectrum of possibilities this will land—that’s because we were lucky enough to get an early warning for once. 2021-12-09 03:47:38 @FollowJonCone @TheNickFoy Is this a serious question? https://t.co/e81Zmfexo9 2021-12-09 03:44:54 @ddiamond @oliverdarcy I disagree on this. The mutation analyses on immune evasion were done within a day or two. We need epi data for some aspects but that necessarily comes later—to late to react for some outcomes. If anything, reassurances are empirically invalid. Threat is real, clarity needs time. https://t.co/4P4eSTbGTU 2021-12-09 03:41:46 @RadioFreeTom You can say that perhaps about the so-called California variant—disproportionate coverage. In this particular case there was a very clear and specific reason, that was empirically grounded very early on. Rest needs time to resolve—it is yet uncertain. Could go many ways. 2021-12-09 03:39:42 @RadioFreeTom This just isn’t true. The unusual number of mutations and their relationship to vaccine and infection immunity evading properties were identified within days, at most. This is a topic—dare I say it—that benefits from some expertise in the area. The worries were and are grounded. 2021-12-09 02:51:59 @fiddledbits @alexandrosM Forgot the /* in the beginning and */ at the end, for due impact. 2021-12-09 02:34:42 Still this. https://t.co/j9vSBq7qAX 2021-12-09 02:00:25 @MCBazacoPhD @baym Quote tweet really fails when it can’t even include what’s quoted specifically.   2021-12-09 01:59:47 @MCBazacoPhD @baym Do you see the context in which it is responding to a particular person and type of argument? I wrote a long article on the myriads of reasons for lack of vaccination for the NYT. Obviously not saying it’s a broad major driver for everyone. https://t.co/Iw7IxOIp8e 2021-12-09 01:18:53 @graemeblake @lisa_iannattone Did you read the whole thing? By the way, thank you for making me reread it. The section on antigenic shift is brilliant, and explains our current moment so, so well. Amazing, for such a short essay, long before Delta or Omicron. Probably the best essay of the whole pandemic. https://t.co/usA1sj1baT 2021-12-09 00:50:48 @graemeblake @lisa_iannattone Literally a whole section explaining the role of repeated exposure, antigenic evolution, and role of immunosenescence and immunocompetence. The framework fits every piece of epidemiological data we've had this whole pandemic—too strong to be defeated by asking wrong questions. 2021-12-08 22:46:24 @jbakcoleman So looking forward to this! 2021-12-08 22:09:55 @DKThomp @ellencarmichael The low prior infection rate assumption in next tweet is unwarranted. I would say we still have close to zero idea about intrinsic virulence. 2021-12-08 20:58:48 @Big_Time_Atl @PharmDMcGee @TheNickFoy @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan “Yes, natural immunity is a thing and important” is also a sentence that exists in what you’re replying to. 2021-12-08 20:21:43 @dylanhmorris Yeah, that number would be catastrophic. Either he's expressing what he means by the math wrong, or the reply people who are not maximally alarmed are not doing the math right. 2021-12-08 20:18:38 @Big_Time_Atl @PharmDMcGee @TheNickFoy @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan *waves at the There is Only One True Paper on Natural Immunity posse*. You all only know that one! Yes, natural immunity is a thing and important, but that paper has a good amount of data issues. Nonetheless, you all know it's not the only paper on this heavily-studied topic? 2021-12-08 19:33:17 Agree! Was only talking about people who declare loudly and act like it's an act of heroism to avoid vaccination, like the person who is quoted. I'm getting some of that in my mentions. It seems like some of them are just afraid to admit a fear? https://t.co/dEwmjXIJ1N 2021-12-08 19:01:31 @lisa_iannattone You keep shifting what you are asking. Still waiting for the math on your "hybrid immunity" among the population calculation? 2021-12-08 18:53:41 @DipierroAnthony @TheNickFoy Antibody quality and quantity go way up, the third dose goes way beyond "restoring" some waning. This is the pattern wit vaccines we choose to go three doses with. (Not at all uncommon: optimizing a process called affinity maturation). 2021-12-08 18:50:40 @PharmDMcGee @TheEliKlein @TheNickFoy @aeminorhan Like all pandemics before, at some point, you get enough seroconversion in the population (well, except HIV but that's really a special case, ended up with us having to rewrite the textbooks). 2021-12-08 18:48:23 @tohmes1 @lisa_iannattone @C_Althaus I don't know if SA had 100% seroconverted but I agree it was likely a high number. That's where I suggest looking up the word "severity". 2021-12-08 18:45:48 @PharmDMcGee @TheEliKlein @TheNickFoy @aeminorhan I don't even think this is an endless booster scenario. Plus, different NPIs have different social costs. Very little of it was done in a hierarchy I'd prefer, but here we are, facing an antibody evading variant wave which will re-threaten the elderly greatly. 2021-12-08 18:41:12 @PharmDMcGee @TheEliKlein @TheNickFoy @aeminorhan Depends on the number infected as well, obviously since immunity has multiple sources. First, need to stop rampant transmission to stop the virus from exploring the fitness landscape so freely. Obviously, more vaccination coverage is a key way to lessen mandatory NPIs. 2021-12-08 18:34:38 @ianmSC Multiple countries have done it. 2021-12-08 18:32:35 @lisa_iannattone Math exercise: what percent of the UK population do you think has been infected with Delta, plus got vaccinated, and thus has "hybrid immunity"? 2021-12-08 18:18:48 @TheEliKlein @PharmDMcGee @TheNickFoy @aeminorhan Fine, if we're focusing on wording. Substantively, that is not sufficient and crucially, pandemics don't end within a single country unless you completely isolate it. 2021-12-08 18:16:18 @tristaneldritch I strongly suggest reading up on it. I have constantly criticized parts of the current the public health response, but 20th century was a wholesale reorganization of society against infectious diseases. Some of it was quite top-down, too. 2021-12-08 18:13:34 Yes, I wish we lived in a world where squashed the early outbreaks with effective mitigations, and then quickly got enough vaccines to vaccinate globally. Letting the virus continue to explore the whole @#$! fitness landscape like this really wasn't a good idea. But here we are. 2021-12-08 18:10:17 @PharmDMcGee @TheNickFoy @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan The country is not mostly vaccinated. Plus,the world is not mostly vaccinated. Plus, three-dose primary series are not rare for vaccines. Yes, I'd rather live in a world where we produced enough in the first six months to vaccinate globally, which would have shortened all this. 2021-12-08 18:07:26 People don't know any history. Perhaps the core story of that "more enlightened" 20th century has been an immense effort and the wholesale transformation of our societies to lessen the scourge of infectious diseases, which stalked humanity forever. https://t.co/Tba0CMRRlq 2021-12-08 18:02:37 @m_soond @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy Yeah, this is genuinely sociopathic. Pandemics caused by viruses novel to the population have caused immense suffering for all of human history. 2021-12-08 17:54:39 If the beef is immunity from natural infection hasn't been taken enough into account in policies and messaging. Sure. I've agreed with that all along. But vaccines help even those with prior infections and infectious diseases are a risk to others. It's not heroic to avoid a dose. 2021-12-08 17:51:51 @knut_mora heh 2021-12-08 17:50:14 @misfiles76 I don't think it will play out like that but let's take your scenario at face value. One, the value of the third dose is conclusively demonstrated (many vaccines are three doses). Still, what's the big deal? Less likely to transmit in return for five minutes in a pharmacy. 2021-12-08 17:40:47 @AstorAaron @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy Yeah, things are getting better on that front for sure. 2021-12-08 17:40:08 @4dannyboy @rak3re Do you think pandemics never end? Like the many, many others before? 2021-12-08 17:39:28 @jce0912 @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy Is this so hard to understand that there is an *extra* and significant threat both to them and the elderly, and reducing circulation while rushing to vaccinate globally is the clear endpoint? If you want the thrill of personal risk, there are worthy causes to volunteer for. 2021-12-08 17:38:00 @rak3re Global population immunity is an endpoint. Variants are never the same as completely novel virus. 2021-12-08 17:35:46 @truth_campaign @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy First two aren't true. The vaccinated transmit less (to start with: they are infected less but there is more), the second is pop psychology and irrelevant. Agree with the third, but that is not an option for everyone and we should work on that more. 2021-12-08 17:34:06 @rak3re Pandemics do end, and the deaths aren't inevitable if we can vaccinate more widely. 2021-12-08 17:32:31 "EARNED." Is this a version of how real man don't need to look at the map or ask for directions? The virus isn't a moral agent, nor does it live by Calvinist ethics and strictures. Vaccines strengthen immunity, and lessen chances of transmitting. Simple. https://t.co/5SsBr7LNcS 2021-12-08 17:28:24 Because the pandemic isn't over, and we now have yet another variant. Resisting the ways to end the pandemic is big part of the problem. Again, avoiding vaccines isn't some heroic act. https://t.co/qeZITEivDL 2021-12-08 17:24:51 @BroCarolina @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy Then you should study up the immune system. 2021-12-08 17:23:47 @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy They existed before and now there is a novel virus that is a great threat to them because it's novel. I mean, really? This is like saying why deploy the fire department, the house was there before. Because. There. Is. A. Fire. Now. And what's the great harm of vaccines? 2021-12-08 17:22:10 Boosters will definitely reduce the risk, and many vaccines are three-dose primary series. Likely this one is too. Maybe there will be annual boosters, like flu. Still, avoiding vaccination isn't like storming the beach at Normandy. Why is it valorized? https://t.co/u6t6W7wBMQ 2021-12-08 17:17:19 @TheEliKlein @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy Protecting people, especially the vulnerable is the best way to move on, and again, and that's what vaccines do. It's an infectious disease, and, at a minimum, elderly and the immunocompromised aren't society's leftovers. 2021-12-08 17:14:48 There seems to be people who are convinced getting infected is some sort of heroic effort, and vaccines are for the weak? I increasingly suspect this may be driven in some by fear of needles, which is exactly why letting people know this is a common condition is important. https://t.co/Xr6SQOslMN 2021-12-08 17:12:06 @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy You guys seem to think getting infected some heroic accomplishment. I guess you live a life with so little risk or accomplishment that you’ve lost all sense of what’s actually heroic? Vaccines aren’t that scary! Even most children manage it without crying. 2021-12-08 17:09:29 @aeminorhan @TheNickFoy *Given sufficient supply*, why should anyone risk transmitting this to someone else when there’s a straightforward way to reduce the risk? What’s the Sisyphean effort? Nobody is storming the beaches at Normandy. There are programs for those afraid of needles, if that’s your fear? 2021-12-08 14:28:39 I'd like, for once, to replace this push and pull between people reassuring us (we don't know enough for that, yet) and catastrophic prophesying with *action*. Unlike early 2020, we have tons of tools we can use to put in place a robust plan of action while we wait for clarity. 2021-12-08 14:14:18 Couple of things: more breakthroughs and re-infections are baked in—I think that's long been clear from @jbloom_lab 's analytic work as well. It's likely milder among the vaccinated/prior infected and the young? Yes, sure but so is every other variant. We still don't know enough. 2021-12-08 14:02:18 One more lab, similar results—though worse than the other two. 2X not enough. Booster helped, but not restored, waned quickly. Previous infection also not enough. (Note all labs are working with small samples & 2021-12-08 03:39:11 RT @WalkerBragman: The Economist updated its estimate today for the true COVID death toll worldwide. Absolutely staggering... https://t.co… 2021-12-08 01:57:02 @TheEliKlein @TheNickFoy As I said, *given sufficient supply*—I’m all for distribution first to places without supply—makes more sense to get the booster and get on with your life as you wish. The data was less clear at first but has been unequivocal for awhile. 2021-12-08 01:41:34 @TheNickFoy I’ve repeatedly advocated for that. One can hold that to be true without disregarding the obvious evidence that this, like many other vaccines, looks like a 3x dose primary series—should be equitably distributed globally for sure. 2021-12-07 23:32:03 RT @BrianRWasik: I get it. I want to know right now too. But please stop asking, 'how does this effect vaccine effectiveness!?' in every th… 2021-12-07 23:30:14 @TheNickFoy Wait what you think we should get infected after vaccination so that... we are better protected against infection after vaccination? Given sufficient supply, I'll take the vaccination route. 2021-12-07 23:24:14 @gahuti @sigallab You mean the guy who is not the author saying exactly what I said: this suggests boosters will help? How did you manage to get two out of two wrong? 2021-12-07 23:21:58 Oh, come on, headline writers. It's been ALMOST TWO YEARS. What she said. https://t.co/QTlnoY2wjr 2021-12-07 23:19:25 Aaand, another lab study on Omicron from @karolinskainst! Pseudovirus (unlike first), somewhat similar results—same direction. Yes, definitely more breakthroughs and infections, as predicted, but not as catastrophic as it could have been. https://t.co/zfMMEPRxiU 2021-12-07 22:52:45 @gahuti We have reasons not to think that, from a lot of data. 2021-12-07 22:48:12 @alexandrosM @sigallab Yeah, that's what I mean by getting high on one's own supply. I know the study. That data isn't great *and* there are many other studies and epi data. Plus that chart contradicts your own tweet. Seriously, natural immunity is a real thing, but looking for broader data is too. 2021-12-07 22:40:58 @alexandrosM @sigallab I'll take the bet you are wrong on this. We already have data from South Africa on re-infections, plus work from other variants and basic principles of science. Honestly, natural immunity is a real thing, but so is getting high on one's own supply. 2021-12-07 22:38:20 We *still* need to wait for epi data to get a better sense of protection against severe disease (expected to remain reasonable and even substantial, but let's see) and vaccine efficacy—lab results do clearly suggest more breakthroughs for sure, but this also needs more epi data. 2021-12-07 22:32:34 First lab results on Omicron, from @sigallab. Not great, but not as catastrophic as it could have been. Tested with 2x Pfizer, and shows, yeah, it'll cause a lot of breakthroughs. Those with vaccine *and* infection appeared much more protected: suggests boosters will work well. https://t.co/RjY0vi6MwC 2021-12-07 17:23:48 @lisa_iannattone By the way, vaccinated and then infected also will almost certainly lead to stronger response—hybrid immunity is going to work both ways, from all indications. Again, though, of course I'd prefer vaccination alone to infection alone. I mean, of course. 2021-12-07 17:21:49 @lisa_iannattone Pretty clear that "hybrid" is way stronger, and why not? That, itself, doesn't resolve the question between infection versus vaccination alone and I did not say the two are proven equal. Both obviously lead to milder future cases but it's possible there are differences of degree. 2021-12-07 17:19:19 @lisa_iannattone We'll see about the rest. I'm comfortable where things are with the data, the epi, the science. Time will help, as it has with everything I've argued about during this pandemic so far. I say fairly obvious things when the data is screaming, it's a good trick. :-D Have a nice day. 2021-12-07 17:18:05 @lisa_iannattone Hah. I'm fine with my response to Delta. I objected to someone who routinely overstates facts, and gets them wrong that the faux alarmism was causing people to relax when they should *alarm* and wrote pretty much the first big piece on Delta in the NYT the moment we got clarity. 2021-12-07 17:15:29 @lisa_iannattone The question itself is important & 2021-12-07 17:13:10 @lisa_iannattone That chart absolutely, positively does not compare infection vs vaccine-immunity. I give up, honestly, if you think that chart shows anything of the sort. Honestly feel like I'm arguing on how snacks can't cause so much superspreading, so one more tweet and then I'll leave this. 2021-12-07 16:54:40 @lisa_iannattone I went through a year of no, look at the epi, "it can't be the snacks" and, honestly, this has the same issue for me. The epi pattern is clear. The science is clear. They match. It's coherent and complete. So that's hard for me to keep arguing. 2021-12-07 16:53:21 @lisa_iannattone The force clearly driving hospitalization and deaths everywhere is remaining seronegatives. Sadly, sometimes the number isn't easily available and people can talk themselves into early herd immunity projections or severe re-infection stories. The epi is clear. Omicron, we'll see. 2021-12-07 16:38:45 @lisa_iannattone That study from Iran needs to fix the CFR. It doesn't match with what we've observed, and if you get the wrong CFR your estimates will be way off—same problem with that Manaus paper. Yes, we haven't run out of seronegatives, that is exactly my point. 2021-12-07 16:25:33 @lisa_iannattone Do the correct math on the seronegatives, and it's pretty clear. You can also see surges in high-vaccination places—even 20% remaining is lots of people. As you note, small numbers are big effects at scale. I see zero evidence to assume those countries ran out of seronegatives. 2021-12-07 16:16:02 @lisa_iannattone Not all discounting. The whole thread is about not assuming intrinsically less virulence. And yes, something can be milder, *on average*, and even by far, because of host immunity but still be a significant threat to sub-populations. In fact, I am writing a piece on this now. 2021-12-07 16:12:15 @eneldiluvio @lisa_iannattone It's very unfortunate. Major authorities and some very visible scientists have been wrong on some issues, and that has led to a lot of distrust and people don't know what to believe. The best anchor is epi data + mechanism. They should match. 2021-12-07 16:10:05 @lisa_iannattone Just like why airborne transmission was so obviously true, here, we understand the science, so we get the mechanisms. So here, too, we have population-wide data, solid science, and science and epi data producing a coherent explanation only in one possible way. Can't do better. 2021-12-07 16:07:50 @lisa_iannattone Let me put it this way. There is absolutely no way to explain the epi curve you see in *every* country over time without accepting re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. No way. It's the same way droplets/contact only could not explain the epi data. Clear as day. 2021-12-07 16:06:25 @lisa_iannattone You can have cases here and there more severe—especially with strain changes. But I've seen all those studies. The key issue is the obvious, glaring conditional probability. You cannot only study the re-infections you encounter—obviously sicker than population-wide. 2021-12-07 15:59:21 @eneldiluvio @lisa_iannattone (We'd know by now... Two years in, these are not unknown questions. I'm saying the most boring, obvious thing, tbh). 2021-12-07 15:57:55 @eneldiluvio @lisa_iannattone There is absolutely zero evidence of ADE for SARS-CoV-2 and more evidence than one can pile up which clearly show that re-infections and breakthroughs are milder on average. The epi data is so crystal clear that it's hard for me to believe so many smart people have been taken in. 2021-12-07 15:52:46 @lisa_iannattone Not a bold statement. Everything else equal, of course re-infections are milder *on average*. We have so much data on this now. Two, as first tweet explains, a new variant is not everything else equal, so can be *more* severe to people with no immunity. https://t.co/xaPC5pBC02 2021-12-07 15:10:31 @rak3re Not if lethality follows the transmission period, as it does in this case. 2021-12-07 15:03:03 SARS-CoV-2 transmits early in the disease course, sometimes before symptoms, and severe illness and death comes much, much later, *after* the most infectious period. "Milder" to vaccinated or previously infected people is different than "it became intrinsically less virulent." 2021-12-07 14:59:56 @MichaelDKarras @MonicaGandhi9 You might be confusing how the immune response can make us experience the virus as less severe the next time—due to the host becoming more able to handle it—which is different than intrinsic virulence. The virus can have the same, or even more, threat to a seronegative person. 2021-12-07 14:57:05 @Altered8484 Delta! 2021-12-07 14:55:16 @GerardHarbison @jbarro Nope. Vaccination doesn’t drive evolution like that especially because there is something called infection. 2021-12-07 14:47:18 No, this doesn't make sense. There is no intrinsic trade-off mechanism between the two, and situations where both can and do go up, like Delta. And the virus doesn't "care" if it eventually kills its host as long as it is spreading. https://t.co/nL6791PNLR 2021-12-07 14:44:51 @ozgurr_korkmazz No absolutely not because you are taking all the risk, unlike vaccines, and it is not clear where the advantage lies afterwards either. 2021-12-07 14:43:53 Evolution is not a teleological process, bad match for a story-telling species' brain. Things seem to make sense—the just-so story—but we must go back to the mechanism. What's being selected for? How? FWIW, I don't think we have clarity on Omicron's intrinsic virulence, yet. 2021-12-07 14:36:39 Selection is on transmission: viruses becoming more transmissible makes sense! People may be thinking more transmission via milder disease because host moves around more? But virus could still kill the host, eventually, or transmit early, as this one, without dampening spread. 2021-12-07 14:27:22 Again: Viruses do not necessarily evolve to be milder—especially if they transmit early, like this one. Our immune system learning about it—via vaccines or infection—can mean better response next time, so milder experience. Not same as virus becoming intrinsically less virulent. https://t.co/xaPC5pBC02 2021-12-07 14:14:20 @jallepap @Dereklowe I'm really interested in learning more about how the public can be reassured, and how there could be more clarity on the risk and what kind of measures could help minimize it. 2021-12-07 14:11:18 @jallepap @Dereklowe If the risk is like unleashing a "TB+" with R 6-8+ (like Delta) via single patient non-compliance, and we don't have antibiotics for the disease, a pre-approval seeking of clarity makes sense to me—at a minimum, what is the real efficacy? Recalls can be damaging to trust as well. 2021-12-07 14:07:46 @jallepap @Dereklowe Yes, very aware of the comparison. A few key differences, no? The benefit to patient is unequivocal, and evolution occurs under a background rate of mutation—it's not like the antibiotics are mutagenic. But yes, obviously, even then, it is a problem. 2021-12-07 09:22:19 @kevinriggle Yeah exactly. Talk about high-value target. Plus, wires work so why not be prudent? https://t.co/S7bEhwgnAD 2021-12-07 01:10:41 @brandon_wallis Agree 2021-12-07 01:10:24 @PankajGoel66 Too early. 2021-12-07 01:04:39 Seriously, being mindful of well-known cybersecurity risks and not letting people be alone in your office are very very reasonable, even minimal precautions for high office. Don’t we have anything real going on? 2021-12-07 00:58:02 RT @brandon_wallis: @zeynep The IMF/international community should send billions of dollars to SA to recoup the tourism and travel losses c… 2021-12-07 00:57:49 Disease progression takes time, serostatus of many is not always known, age cohorts have different contact patterns, founder effects are a thing, society isn’t mixed homogeneously… Need time to disentangle. I do hope it’s mild but let’s not talk ourselves into conclusions, yet. 2021-12-07 00:52:45 Truly appreciate how quickly South African public health officials are sharing data. I’m seeing people conclude from this, though, that Omicron is mild. Maybe. Maybe not. Still too early. Only thing that seems assured is more breakthroughs and re-infections. Still need time. https://t.co/EChRsdsOGi 2021-12-07 00:30:31 “Paranoid”? Vice President of the United States as a target in a world with the kind of software/hardware we have? You probably couldn’t manage to be paranoid enough tbh. https://t.co/sTQBIuvwz0 2021-12-07 00:26:39 Phobia??? Bluetooth is a well-known security risk—including the possibility of escalating and executing code—well, malware—on the phone. Strongly suggest talking to cybersecurity experts—or even a Dr. Google consultation—before running such stories. https://t.co/ZUSHnS3wIa 2021-12-07 00:21:41 RT @ryangrim: Um, yes? The NIH is piloting programs that do exactly this. 2021-12-06 23:32:04 @mlipsitch Pretty frustrating to see all the early hand-waving tbh. As you note, somethings have multiple paths, and too early too properly disentangle them. 2021-12-06 22:53:36 @RRcandid It’s always tough. But they should focus on doing the right thing—especially since there are other options with no such risk. A framework for evaluating this seems to be the minimum, no? Their documents don’t have even this atm. Just “uncertain”. 2021-12-06 20:38:03 RT @jljcolorado: Finally! 2021-12-06 19:39:00 To some asking: This mechanism doesn't apply to vaccines (vaccines aren't drugs—this is a drug specifically mutagenic to the virus), nor to Pfizer's antiviral (which targets enzymes, and is also not mutagenic to the virus). So concerns are only about this (or similar) drugs. 2021-12-06 18:27:28 @AdAltum Yeah, the answer really is vaccines aren't drugs. This question comes up a lot, though, and will look for a longer article on this (or try to get some people to write one). The mechanisms aren't the same with immune system. 2021-12-06 17:41:00 @OriginalAlpaca The big concern about the virus RNA, not your DNA. 2021-12-06 17:30:55 I think we can assume that there'll be some patient noncompliance (stopping early, skipping doses, erratic timing) as well as re-targeting (hoarded/left-over pills being shared). How does this affect this tail risk—not to the patient, but to society? https://t.co/YnEd9am53E 2021-12-06 17:27:44 @Dereklowe I am certain we will get substantive levels of patient noncompliance, skipped doses, erratic timing, early stopping etc. and also re-targeting (left-over/hoarded pills being shared). I'd like some clarity on how that affects this tail risk—not to the patient but to society. 2021-12-06 17:20:40 RT @Dereklowe: This is an unfortunately good point: will patient noncompliance on Molnupiravir treatment regimes bring on the viral-mutant… 2021-12-06 17:20:06 @roby_bhatt Heh. Speaking of which, last thing, I'm guessing you saw the Omicron/epistasis paper? Evolution, generating fascinating conversations since the first person asked wait how did the eye evolve then? Good luck with your grant(s)! https://t.co/KQRKSxtGlh 2021-12-06 17:11:24 One more thread! https://t.co/K38bIyVm6q 2021-12-06 17:10:25 @AukeHoekstra It's not less 30% chance of COVID. It's 30% reduction in hospitalizations *if* the data holds up. (It was very weird). 2021-12-06 17:09:10 @roby_bhatt Haha! The part here (from page 32 on) doesn't end with a conclusion. It just says uncertain! (There must be some monitoring mechanism for ongoing use, right?) https://t.co/3300JjzJWb 2021-12-06 16:51:57 @roby_bhatt With so many on the FDA panel raising this, specifically, as a significant enough concern, I'd like someone to tell us more about all this before approval, including how we'd get that kind of data/clarity. 2021-12-06 16:50:16 @roby_bhatt Yeah, clearly need more info on efficacy. On the other clarity part: I'm hoping someone will tell us! But the assumption has to be that many people will not complete the course as prescribed, will not quarantine, some will be immunocompromised (especially if it expands globally). 2021-12-06 16:39:24 @roby_bhatt I'm just trying to imagine a post-approval withdrawal because of this, and the damage it would do. Seems prudent to get some clarity, especially given the benefit itself is low to potentially non-existent. (I couldn't parse the trial data progression. Looks like noise at times). 2021-12-06 16:37:42 Here's a post by @Dereklowe on this question, but also highlighting below the part where he wonders (as have others), if the already low reported benefit is there at all? (The trial data is really weird...) https://t.co/5ursDdwJYg https://t.co/tGTd3jcvdb 2021-12-06 16:27:41 Pfizer antiviral doesn't use the same mechanism, so does not have the same risk. I think antivirals are an excellent addition to our arsenal. That said, so many on the FDA panel raised this issue, and still little news coverage? How do we get more clarity? https://t.co/RAm4LqbnPd 2021-12-06 16:18:45 @AdAltum Vaccines aren't drugs. 2021-12-06 16:18:06 Overall, we have multiple scientists raising the alarm that a new drug may end up generating new variants, many on the FDA panel voting no citing that very concern, and real questions on whether there's any benefit—already on the low side as claimed. Seems worth taking seriously. 2021-12-06 16:15:38 (Also, the trial had two phases and the drug had *zero* efficacy in the second phase which is really weird. It suggests regression to the mean so perhaps there is little to no benefit after all. Seems worth a longer study, but that's a separate question). 2021-12-06 16:14:35 One question I have is what happen with patience non-compliance? The pill is supposed to be taken over five days, every 12 hours at home (I think 40 pills total). There's going to be a lot of incomplete regimens in this scenario. How does this affect this risk? 2021-12-06 16:11:31 This is Dr. Hildreth on the FDA advisory phrased it after the vote. (He wasn't the only one on the panel to raise the issue). https://t.co/CMp51b1sJG 2021-12-06 16:10:21 Another, also with a letter in virological. "Mutagenic antivirals: the evolutionary risk of low doses". https://t.co/ebIqq4yJCG 2021-12-06 16:08:55 Another thread on the risk of sublethal mutagenesis (on the virus, not the human!) from molnupiravir: https://t.co/FFhbazulZw 2021-12-06 16:07:37 Sharing a few threads on whether molnupiravir (new antiviral on the cusp of approval) risks generating new variants because the mutations it induces may, rarely but possibly, not kill the virus but generate viable variants instead. Many on the FDA panel who voted no raised this. https://t.co/hjCY7vSgJq 2021-12-06 15:15:25 @LauringLab FDA presumably could ask for more data (especially since the efficacy in the second half seems so weird—zero benefit?) before approving rather than plunge into tail risk (as you note: theoretical, of course, not studied enough) since it's about more than individual patients. 2/2 2021-12-06 15:12:39 @LauringLab Right, though FDA panel is advisory, the vote barely squeaked by, multiple no voters mentioned this and no approval yet. So question is what should the FDA do? The usual risk/benefit or adverse/event framework doesn't seem suited for this. Risk is to planet, not to patient. 1/2 2021-12-06 15:03:20 RT @jljcolorado: .@WHO: this is an Indian Goverment App RIGHT NOW. Your enormous error saying "FACT: COVID IS NOT AIRBORNE" arrived around… 2021-12-06 15:01:34 @LauringLab Question: Would this not suggest more data should be collected before approval? Especially given the benefit itself is under question? (Zero efficacy in second half looks like regression to the mean). Patient compliance certainly an issue with an at-home five days every 12h pill. 2021-12-06 04:12:08 RT @dakekang: In five short graphs, HK government says freedom of speech is protected and there’s nothing to be afraid of, while also issui… 2021-12-05 23:33:48 @ProfCharlesHaas (Also, I think the Ontario bday party is not confirmed to be Omicron) 2021-12-05 23:17:54 In part two, they explain if there are reversions of the individually deleterious mutations, their pattern could support one hypothesis over other. OTOH, if nothing reverts, doesn't tip for either hypothesis BUT suggests can happen AGAIN in other lineages. https://t.co/T6rfDMYxVk 2021-12-05 23:12:44 @ProfCharlesHaas Great work, thank you. Any chance you could add a column for number of people in the event? Number of cases is much more informative when paired with the number of people at the event. (80 infected at 100 person party, for example). Happy to add for the existing cases if helps! 2021-12-05 22:59:00 It's all terrible but... This is legit fascinating for anyone with interest in evolutionary dynamics. Their argument: *On their own*, many Omicron mutations would likely be deleterious, but are adaptive when they *co-occur*... How you get rapid and substantial remodelling... https://t.co/AzO3xlUcy6 2021-12-05 19:37:59 @gregggonsalves You’ve already got some good replies but it’s just so infuriating that almost two years in, people are very understandably still confused—and without reliable means to avoid counterfeits. 2021-12-05 18:02:17 @JohnSkylar Okay, we're moving on and honestly, I don't personally care that much, but please stop and rethink for a moment in the future when interacting with women—sometimes the easy way your vocabulary "slips" is telling you something. 2021-12-05 17:56:12 @JohnSkylar I'm deleting, but it wasn't just an oversight: "catty" is not acceptable language. People slammed both of us for that op-ed, fine. We got support, too and UK and Canada followed that strategy, even without trials, because they felt enough data and reasons. Fine. "Catty" is not. 2021-12-05 17:30:58 @JohnSkylar @j_g_allen @michaelmina_lab Thank you for explaining this, I had no idea. 2021-12-05 17:22:02 RT @syramadad: If you have tested positive for #COVID19 or have been exposed to someone who has, @NYCHealthSystem Take Care hotels are for… 2021-12-05 17:19:49 RT @j_g_allen: Always surprised me that the ‘delayed 2nd dose’ convo got shut down hard and early when we started rolling out vax in 2020.… 2021-12-05 17:06:10 NYC https://t.co/HNQ4zMLDVW 2021-12-05 12:58:13 RT @BDDataplan: My cluster database for The Netherlands now contains 3.000 entries. Based on @trishgreenhalgh's suggestion and my existin… 2021-12-03 23:19:30 RT @kakape: “Airborne transmission across the corridor is the most probable mode of transmission," 2021-12-03 22:44:08 @DevanSinha @dylanhmorris @theosanderson yeah here we go 2021-12-03 22:13:59 RT @poitrasCBC: From a New York Times piece by @zeynep. I was not aware of this distinction. It is reassuring. https://t.co/zblgGRoGhv 2021-12-03 22:04:39 @dylanhmorris https://t.co/2D2nHdeRc2 2021-12-03 18:33:08 @Lundemo16 Virus are indeed tiny but need to travel within larger particles/aerosols—that's what masks trap. There's a lot of science to it, and N95s are tested to very high standards. We also have information nowadays on other mask types, too. So the virus size isn't the crucial bit. 2021-12-03 15:46:41 @jopazing Is that a state policy, county policy? 2021-12-03 15:30:12 That's the thing. Early action staves off the need for later harsher action and minimizes suffering. But I understand people are tired. But here we are, and we have to get through the winter—it's still possible Omicron isn't worse, but Delta is still here. https://t.co/saD2fHcwnv 2021-12-03 15:21:40 RT @syramadad: Get your child vaccinated if over 5 years of age. 2021-12-03 15:07:30 @JInterlandi Sorry about the stress, Jeneen. Best wishes. Yes, knowledge in one's head and worry in one's heard to not always coordinate. 2021-12-03 14:45:39 @Peacockg @BeanOpenMind There are very few regular things people concretely deal with with exponential growth. 2021-12-03 14:45:08 @ArielKarlinsky The United States and European countries aren’t just health departments. 2021-12-03 14:40:07 Good visualization! https://t.co/OgvDoWOxKz 2021-12-03 14:37:58 Vaccines, globally and equitably, including boosters. Slow spread of Omicron, especially till there’s more clarity through the usual: test, find outbreaks, ventilation/better masks etc. Update vaccines, if necessary along with production capacity. Antivirals but to outbreaks… https://t.co/E3pd9XhaXV 2021-12-03 14:23:16 @ArielKarlinsky Like not vaccinating the world, including planning for booster shots starting with the most vulnerable and healthcare workers, exactly. Glad we agree. :-) 2021-12-03 14:14:34 True words https://t.co/ZxCZLTRJXj 2021-12-03 04:22:51 RT @cyrusshahpar46: Thurs just in: +2.18M doses reported admin, incl 678K newly vacc and 1.04M boosters. Largest 24hr total in over 6 month… 2021-12-03 04:00:12 @TomPaineToday @JenaFriedman It’s a common myth 2021-12-03 03:56:51 @TomPaineToday @JenaFriedman No! Not me. There’s no such necessary connection. Selection is on transmission, not virulence 2021-12-03 03:30:36 RT @Craig_A_Spencer: I just did a BBC interview. The host said that in the U.K. you can just walk into a pharmacy and pick up free tests.… 2021-12-03 03:29:24 @MiltonMatthew16 Yes we do. And it’s not extremely unlikely especially with Delta. We’ve seen substantial numbers in countries that track this. 2021-12-03 03:10:08 @MiltonMatthew16 https://t.co/IhRbagqwLy 2021-12-02 23:56:40 @dylanhmorris I offer more choices: Three months later, when everyone is even more confused and team science™ is complaining about it. https://t.co/f7tkm9s3EA 2021-12-02 18:49:44 Yes, this. Just make rapid tests cheap. Or distribute them in workplaces and schools for free. Adding paperwork isn’t the same as making it cheap or accessible. https://t.co/ALmay0T6p2 2021-12-02 18:38:12 @M_Stone969 Here you go! https://t.co/2fN4mTeeZy 2021-12-02 18:37:50 @canadian_desi Absolutely 2021-12-02 17:59:29 Many. See below from the ACIP meeting. Also, infectious diseases are, well, infectious. Vaccinating children to protect them from the burden of being in the transmission chain that can sicken or even kill their family members is a perfectly good reason. https://t.co/ymuS4sEwnE https://t.co/jNjTOJnDlJ 2021-12-02 17:17:53 Yes, and not only because they, too, can get sick and even die—even if much much less so than adults—they can transmit. No child should face the burden of being in a transmission chain to their family. We vaccinate kids against much less deadly diseases. https://t.co/BG6Fr1OUzm 2021-12-02 17:13:45 @KasperKepp @WHO I am 100% for vaccines going to countries that need them, in an equitable manner, and antivirals going to where the outbreaks are, regardless of ability to pay. The separate question here is: is this a three-dose primary series vaccine. The answer seems pretty clear. 2021-12-02 17:09:22 @AndreasShrugged @ArielKarlinsky Also, and this is not at all the fault of any research, but we had two simultaneous events: time since vaccination and rise of Delta (well, and also elderly got vaccinated first so longer time for them... Hard to tease such things out!) 2021-12-02 17:07:32 @ArielKarlinsky Oh come on. That early data was, of course, confounded from age to contact patterns to urban/rural to behavior. That doesn't make it useless, but of course people try to tease out confounding. This is how it goes. 2021-12-02 17:05:36 @KasperKepp @WHO I am in complete agreement that supply should first go to at-risk individuals without even a single shot, followed by their second shot, etc. But they, too, eventually should get the third dose. 2021-12-02 17:03:20 We had randomized, placebo-controlled observer-blind trials on the third shot, that's how. https://t.co/VazHFIrPU9 2021-12-02 16:58:47 Looking at other vaccines, a three-shot primary series (once) and then a (maybe) annual booster (depending on whether a new variant emerges/circulation levels) for adults, and just adding this to childhood series would be my guess. https://t.co/CksadRxmAW 2021-12-02 16:53:56 This is how I feel. We should incorporate lessons from this to better protect against other airborne respiratory diseases, but presenting a booster once a year as some sort of calamity is the ultimate in 21st century problems. Go read some history, folks. https://t.co/7k2fCQ6MaB 2021-12-02 16:51:45 In fairness, the early Israeli data was heavily-confounded. And equity concerns do remain valid. What baffles me is this: There. Have. Since. Been. Highly. Quality. Randomized. Placebo-Controlled. Trials. They were not ambiguous. It's been pretty clear. https://t.co/48cFhab5Fj 2021-12-02 16:44:53 If that is where we end up, this is not at all terrible as an outcome, tbh. Even before the pandemic, I was an avid reader of human history—aka the devastating toll of infectious diseases—and I consider safe and effective vaccines to be wondrous miracles. https://t.co/Mq5DxY2ZX0 2021-12-02 16:41:16 Yes, the third shot isn't just restoring "waning" efficacy, but goes beyond that, and antibodies increase in quality as well as quantity. I will look for a solid article on this (Maybe @dylanhmorris or @andrew_croxford or someone can write an explainer?) https://t.co/kKGou0eaLa 2021-12-02 16:38:58 I think this is correct. For younger men, there may be an argument against the third shot, though hopefully we will soon get better data on that. (Does the yes very low but real myocarditis risk increase from two to three? Not sure we know yet.) https://t.co/q718lVsrJi 2021-12-02 16:35:20 Agree. I was skeptical in summer—especially since the early data was so confounded. But since then, long before Omicron, we had high-quality data strongly suggesting this is a three-dose primary series. (Happens with many vaccines!). We must equitably vaccinate the world as such. https://t.co/cwCev1YDD7 2021-12-02 13:05:01 @karmel80 @CT_Bergstrom It’s true that the supply priority is places with outbreaks, and where people have not had shots. But it’s also true that these don’t even appear to be boosters: these vaccines, like many others, seem to work best as three short series. And this has been clear for a while. 2021-12-02 04:56:27 RT @AP_Sports: BREAKING: The head of the women’s professional tennis tour says all WTA tournaments will be suspended in China because of co… 2021-12-02 04:30:24 RT @CT_Bergstrom: I don't buy it. Many experts may have been hesitant last July — I was. But well before omicron arrived, sufficient eviden… 2021-12-02 03:43:40 Correct answer https://t.co/XUB5ggvHKF 2021-12-02 03:35:21 it me https://t.co/XZOW4E6Wxd 2021-12-02 01:32:43 RT @alfiekohn: A recent observation by @zeynep applies to pandemics (as the failure to vaccinate less-developed countries allows new varian… 2021-12-02 01:17:35 @dylanhmorris @DevanSinha @theosanderson That tail! 2021-12-02 00:50:16 @roby_bhatt 2021-12-01 21:54:01 @PeterASinger And no shortcut but to wait for clinical/epidemiological data for the big questions. We'll soon get some nAb results from labs, but we already have a sense of that. The big questions have to wait for data (thank you, South Africa—such an early warning that it preceded epi data!). 2021-12-01 21:51:48 Here's another. https://t.co/kZiEj5ibh3 2021-12-01 21:49:16 Here's one. https://t.co/Zj7W3vNhPr 2021-12-01 21:46:26 There's a timeline to the epistemology of this. There are some things we can make reasonable guesses about from the genome and soon-to-arrive lab work, but some key questions need to wait for clinical and epidemiological data. Both @trvrb & 2021-12-01 20:25:04 @d1gi The “correction” making strong claims even Merck isn’t making. People really need to hold off with these things unless they have the right team and expertise. 2021-12-01 20:24:58 @lbredin @estherswchan I did, of course. 2021-12-01 20:21:12 @estherswchan Not only are you jumping the gun here, some of your “fact checks” are contradicted by Merck’s own documents as filed with the FDA. 2021-12-01 20:17:24 @d1gi That “fact check” is incorrect. It’s conflating real issues with obviously wrong things. It doesn’t even have its own facts correct. 2021-12-01 19:35:55 @dshanah I know, right? 2021-12-01 19:21:33 @TWILLYG2 @jljcolorado Antibody evasion works regardless how the immunity was acquired. 2021-12-01 19:20:14 That's the only part we have some strong evidence for, from analyzing the genome. But do note: vaccine efficacy measures symptomatic breakthroughs, so it doesn't tell us about their efficacy against severe disease: that, too, will need time. https://t.co/UEDrp2tIta 2021-12-01 18:36:00 @PolskySays There is absolutely no way for a single doctor to conclude what it means, on average, this early. Most cases are mild of all variants. It depends on the age/vaccination/prior infection status of her patients as well. I appreciate her observations. That's all. 2021-12-01 18:34:31 Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts. 2021-12-01 18:33:46 @rid1tweets Thank you so much. If I may suggest: you would make lots of people happy if you used a log scale, too. (Can we help?) 2021-12-01 18:29:23 I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports. https://t.co/cUSASMHTNb 2021-12-01 18:26:47 I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know. https://t.co/GtRCa3J9z2 2021-12-01 18:23:41 Thanks to South Africa, we learned about this threat very early. They will likely be the ones to tell us more. (Though I suspect they are too responsible to do so, who'd blame them if they held the information till we at least apologize for our response). https://t.co/AseEH580Gl 2021-12-01 18:20:00 For all we know, it's spreading only because of antibody evasion, not higher transmissibility. Or not. Or that it's so different than the OG virus that it's not as good at replicating. Or maybe it's really severe for the unvaccinated. We don't know yet. WE. DON'T. KNOW. 2021-12-01 18:17:13 From the sequence and what we know so far, maybe the one thing we can say is good level of antibody evasion is baked in—more breakthroughs. But that, by itself, doesn't tell us what it means for the pandemic. Remember Beta? B.1.351? Antibody evasion but little impact on pandemic. 2021-12-01 18:13:57 Folks, absolutely too early to conclude that Omicron is milder or more severe on average, or that vaccine efficacy will be preserved as is, or not—or even why exactly it's spreading. Just too early, and I would not pay any attention to conclusive sounding statements. Needs time. 2021-12-01 17:50:27 @maor_elad @daviesbj Glad to hear your symptoms are mild! And your family is all negative. If I may ask, how did your colleague get it from you? Traveling together or working together in the hospital? 2021-12-01 06:21:59 @dylanhmorris The efficacy is screaming regression to the mean. Looks like didn’t have enough time yet to get to null. 2021-12-01 02:37:38 RT @tylerpager: Scoop: The Biden admin is preparing stricter testing requirements for all travelers entering the U.S., including returning… 2021-12-01 01:25:32 @EricGat89201379 That’s why we need a meeting asap—to figure out how best to expand supply also for antivirals. 2021-11-30 19:45:50 @ezraklein You would think instead of postponing the meeting they would have it immediately, remotely, given the developments. 2021-11-30 19:44:11 Four, y’all can have my zoom password. 2021-11-30 19:42:29 One, hold conferences remotely, you know—two years into a pandemic? Two, increasing vaccine supply requires a lot of work beyond IP transfer. Maybe get to it? Three, the new antivirals make this question actually urgent—they may be the bridge till new vaccines arrive, if needed. 2021-11-30 19:34:22 Say what now https://t.co/19Jxt2fBjH 2021-11-30 02:14:02 @andrew_croxford https://t.co/YloTj7XDKu 2021-11-29 18:53:12 RT @nytimes: In Opinion "Fast, honest work by South Africa has allowed the world to get on top of this variant even while clinical and epi… 2021-11-29 14:58:25 I get this. The key here is communicating that, unlike Alpha and Delta, we got an early enough warning with Omicron that… we DON’T know if it is a big threat, but we should act like it *might* be till we figure it out a bit more. It could fizzle out or it could be a big threat. https://t.co/bwvcIjDuwH 2021-11-29 14:38:57 RT @vicjkim: "Containment needs to target the pathogen, not the passports." 2021-11-29 03:30:25 RT @ezraklein: A lot of wisdom here from ⁦@zeynep⁩: https://t.co/2M6AxUMulW 2021-11-29 02:50:32 @notdred @arpitrage @imbernomics One estimate in this thread. (Has github so can play with the data). https://t.co/xgL5taE6U1 2021-11-29 02:45:39 @notdred @arpitrage @imbernomics It’s much higher. They do have good excess death tracking. But the sero estimate comes down to one’s IFR estimate. A random serosurvey in Gauteng right about now would be excellent. (Would save a lot more money than it cost). 2021-11-29 02:34:43 @notdred Best case scenario seems to be that. Well, it’s on the table, so we’ll see. I guess the question is what happens when it hits more immunologically naive populations? 2021-11-29 02:28:47 @notdred If it’s re-infections/breakthroughs due to antibody evasion that’s driving the spread… Too early to conclude but fits so far. https://t.co/djVf0u89Ye 2021-11-29 01:02:33 RT @BenjaminFogel: Sensible op-ed from @zeynep on how to respond to Omicron, the world should compensate South Africa for the financial dam… 2021-11-28 23:28:43 RT @ConorJTobin: “South Africa has given the world a precious gift, and along with our gratitude and support and resources so that they can… 2021-11-28 23:09:11 @JaspJackson Thank you! 2021-11-28 21:57:04 OTOH, both immune evasion and intrinsic higher transmissibility contribute to higher Rt. For ex, if Omicron can evade antibodies and is reinfecting people, cases will go up but might be milder with cellular immunity (T& 2021-11-28 21:50:08 This is a myth. Especially for a virus that can transmit early in disease course, like this one, selection pressure is on transmission, not virulence. So a new variant can be MORE or LESS virulent (when everything else equal, i.e. host immunity). https://t.co/B39i2Cu8Ak 2021-11-28 20:18:33 RT @RealBenisons: Have we learned yet that “containment needs to target the pathogen, not the passports“? @zeynep @nytopinion https://t.co/… 2021-11-28 20:18:07 @dylanhmorris @LewisSpurgin Yeah the virus is trolling us trifecta. 2021-11-28 19:06:21 RT @jpalfrey: "Unlike in the terrible days of early last year, we have an early warning, vaccines, effective drugs, greater understanding o… 2021-11-28 18:26:38 RT @Craig_A_Spencer: Join me today on @CNN at 2pm ET! I haven’t done many interviews recently. That’s because I only accepted those that a… 2021-11-28 18:24:17 @ezraklein 2021-11-28 17:59:25 RT @allthethings319: Important thread and article. Let's also be very clear that the world owes an enormous thank you to South Africa for t… 2021-11-28 17:45:46 When facing an exponential threat under uncertainty, it's a *great* idea to put in friction quickly. Buying time is great! But we have to do it properly, then use that time, and be ready to reverse or change course quickly. Otherwise, we get all the burden but not the benefits. 2021-11-28 16:59:43 RT @jeremyfaust: This is a great point. Many people have become wary of “standing up” because sometimes we are slow to “stand down.” It’… 2021-11-28 16:55:55 The world owes South Africa—a lot. It's also possible that they were simply the first to detect Omicron—and it's widespread already. We absolutely need to provide resources to them—and to the region. It's the right thing to do, and our moral obligation. https://t.co/QbZIiYjC5m 2021-11-28 16:51:52 Plus, I'm all for early, aggressive action when facing exponential threats but there needs to be benchmarks and a timeline for reversing precautionary steps. Such restrictions *are* a burden, and haphazardly putting a few in place and forgetting about them is not okay. https://t.co/X2FTJyaK2i 2021-11-28 16:39:40 @BigSteve207 Can't conclude that like this, with too few cases. Too early. I hope it turns out to be true, but honestly too few cases and too little data, yet. 2021-11-28 16:38:02 This is *not* like where we were with Alpha or Delta when we first heard about them. Thanks to South Africa, we have such an early warning that it's impossible to be sure. Everything is still on the table. Fizzles out totally, catastrophe, in-between? Gotta wait for data. 2021-11-28 16:34:26 We argue over travel bans, and sometimes implement them but in a way that makes little sense. Early containment measures *can* buy time, but they have to be *for real* containment, not just passport exclusion. (Virus doesn't care). And the real issue is using that time wisely. 2021-11-28 16:29:40 RT @JorgeGalindo: "Thanks to SA scientists, their public health infrastructure, their talent and dedication and the transparency of their g… 2021-11-28 16:29:07 South Africa has gifted us an early warning with Omicron. But earlier the warning, the less we know. Still, we must act now, while waiting for clarity. We need smart, comprehensive measures, not pandemic theater. Can we please, finally learn? New from me: https://t.co/PxVI0ibDu8 https://t.co/O3EI8lDam6 2021-11-27 12:57:10 @andrew_croxford She was actually reporting on their excellent genomics surveillance, I believe. It’s possible that the first key of many was found under the light, and she was reporting on the light! Thus not a complete coincidence! 2021-11-26 14:39:38 RT @jljcolorado: Canada's Top Public Health Official: "Expelled virus particles can spread over distances and linger in fine aerosols for p… 2021-11-26 05:47:45 @Mglo @AdamWelz @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU 30% remaining seronegatives is huge with an R> 2021-11-26 05:37:16 @Mglo @AdamWelz @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU Well that’s the question. Not sure we can assume the answer from known principles alone here. I mean, maybe but it doesn’t fit neatly so some assumption-independent data would be really useful. 2021-11-26 05:19:16 @AdamWelz @Mglo @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU “Swept through” levels? Not sure that holds. I’m asking what was the remaining seronegative portion? 2021-11-26 05:15:57 @brodiegal @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU What would you estimate as remaining seronegatives? (For any strain). 2021-11-26 05:05:51 @Mglo @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU Without a corresponding death rate? 2021-11-26 05:00:50 @CT_Bergstrom @HuffmanLabDU The question at hand is why was Delta low before? 2021-11-26 03:16:38 And Jesse (antigenic virus evolution expert) has a really solid thread, with a preliminary framework. https://t.co/P6uU31WX93 2021-11-26 03:04:32 @DaveOneSixNine @JakubKrupa I know. But this is definitely one to watch. 2021-11-26 02:58:31 Important thread. https://t.co/rBIgUZUII2 2021-11-25 19:52:20 @joquji5n324il 2021-11-25 18:54:29 Even amidst all this… Really appreciative of the gorgeous weather, opportunities to bike and the whatever-it-was superglue thingie that let me re-attach the broken temple back on my sunglasses. (Yes, they’re now crooked and won’t fold. But it works till replacement gets here). https://t.co/xM7iUNYah0 2021-11-25 18:41:20 @Charles60574837 It is definitely a possibility. We’ve seen just that before. 2021-11-25 17:08:11 You’re hearing about the new variant? B.1.1.529, soon to be Nu? Yes, the early signals are genuinely worrying. (This isn’t true for many 2021-11-25 15:56:55 Anyway, vaccinating the world remains the same urgent issue. As few primary infections as possible is job number one. That’s not all there is, obviously, but that’s still job number one. 2021-11-25 15:30:45 I hold the same view as last May, when Delta become clear. This increased transmissibility means that most of the world will have encountered the spike of this virus soon enough. The question is if via vaccination or infection/exposure. Delta makes the latter is even higher risk. https://t.co/vrrvgkQgRi 2021-11-25 15:25:02 Also, understanding conditional probability is key. Symptomatic/severe re-infections are much more likely to be detected (mild/asymptomatic ones less likely to be noticed), thus cannot be a denominator for comparison to clinical outcomes of infections. Need comprehensive surveys. 2021-11-25 15:21:23 The confusion seems to be the misunderstanding that viruses become weaker as an adaptive strategy (not true, they don’t need to: selection is on transmission, not virulence directly). OTOH, the immune system exists! So host *response* to the *same* virus can be different. 2021-11-25 15:18:59 Delta seems more severe on average, so would expect it to be clinically less mild on average as well for a re-infection following a non-Delta initial infection (as vaccines: Delta breakthroughs seem more severe), but same principle would hold to a Delta infection/re-infection. https://t.co/2GNHtEv8ln 2021-11-25 15:05:07 Re-infections happen, but data shows symptomatic ones are rare. Thus research on them is hard & 2021-11-25 14:26:58 @stephanielangel @stgoldst @GidMK Remember all this started when I objected to Twitter censoring her polite, factual questions at EcoHealth. People popped in *my* mentions with “it’s good to censor a grifter” replies. Meanwhile, if people want to deny her a spotlight, I suggest more people ask those questions. https://t.co/ZCWtXnLemp 2021-11-25 14:12:02 @stephanielangel @stgoldst @GidMK That wasn’t a thing I said at any point. I simply pointed out the level of energy directed at her, rather than the many issues with even EcoHealth is telling and disappointing. Or the fact that early case info is clearly censored, etc. There are *many* substantive open questions. 2021-11-25 04:05:56 @stgoldst @GidMK I think both of you have strong opinions, and I’d argue neither of you is protected by senior people—tbh I’d argue they should be out there, not you—or out for the money. Strong disagreement with anyone aside, I’m recognizing that conviction exists. And I respect it. That’s all. 2021-11-25 03:41:15 @GidMK @stgoldst If you’re going to wave around credentials, you need a much better track record. Still, I appreciate that Stephen is also a junior person who’s outspoken and not always with requisite support. I hope he’d get the obvious point. Sticking your neck out isn’t a straight money play. 2021-11-25 02:12:02 @epopppp Best wishes to you, Beth. It’s tough, no doubt but you’re in our thoughts. 2021-11-24 19:14:08 RT @ezraklein: One underplayed advantage for Substack and subscriber-based sites is how clean the reading experience is. A mixture of adver… 2021-11-24 16:56:16 RT @samagreene: Earlier this year, Russian authorities used the threat of jail time for employees as leverage, successfully coercing @Apple… 2021-11-24 02:48:51 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @macroliter Most everything in Worobey’s paper had been uncovered *months ago* by the so-called internet sleuths. It was known but ignored, as usual. Also, what’s your explanation for why we don’t have access to EcoHealth’s data and their contradictory statements? 2021-11-24 02:45:17 @macroliter If you want to claim some evidence, you at least have to participate in unearthing what evidence may exist. And the censorious, authoritian governments around the world are perfectly capable of playing this game. “Look no evidence” since we censor it. 2021-11-24 02:42:42 @macroliter This whole debate started when you jumped into my mentions when I objected to Chan’s perfectly factual, reasonable questions to EcoHealth being censored by Twitter. The real scandal is why is she the only one asking these questions? Where is the rest of you? 2021-11-24 02:34:00 @macroliter So anyone insisting on what we *do* know should try to define the scope. You will immediately hit EcoHealth as an inexplicable obstruction. This is taxpayer-funded research. It’s a pandemic. Why don’t we have access to it? At least I get what the Chinese government is doing. 2021-11-24 02:30:51 @macroliter It would be helpful if the field tried to focus on actual evidence, what little might be available. Or how “frozen food chain” ended up being rated as “more likely” than *anything* lab related by experts. Or why the Lancet and other case reports don’t match WHO report whatsoever. 2021-11-24 02:28:03 @macroliter In the 80s, the Turkish government insisted there was “no evidence” that there was torture in jails. You can’t talk about “the evidence” when evidence is so profoundly censored. We’re talking about EcoHealth because they won’t even give us what little evidence might be available. 2021-11-24 02:19:33 @macroliter Very straightforward. Why haven’t they released all their data, and why have so many of their statements contradicted their previous ones—or known facts as unearthed? You tell me why. “We prepare for pandemics but we’re going to sit on our data in the middle of an actual one”? 2021-11-24 01:36:58 @macroliter The pile-on a single postdoc when there are so many actual, important and substantial questions… It would almost be funny if it wasn’t so pathetic. 2021-11-24 01:35:35 @macroliter You’re quoting me but absolutely ignoring my question. Amazing. How about focus this energy to get EcoHealth to release the data it should have years ago? Or mention that Calisher, Paliser and Roizman—as eminent as it gets—have said much harsher things than Chan? Or even Baric? 2021-11-24 00:48:01 Was looking back. Last May. When Delta didn’t have its name, but when its threat was clear. https://t.co/vrrvgkQgRi 2021-11-23 04:25:34 RT @nytimesworld: ‘Vaccinated, recovered or dead.’ That is how Germany’s acting health minister depicted the prognosis for his country by t… 2021-11-23 02:53:09 RT @xkcdComic: Bayes' Theorem https://t.co/fVtbp0agIE https://t.co/o5CMgRBA60 https://t.co/1VdHe4eOAc 2021-11-22 21:07:09 @macroliter @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Yeah, why is a postdoc with a book taking up your energy as opposed to a WHO expert panel that claimed that the frozen food chain was MORE LIKELY origin than anything related to any lab despite lacking the slightest meaningful access, or EcoHealth that is yet to release key info? 2021-11-22 20:38:16 @macroliter @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Maybe, a field can spend more time reflecting that some of its top experts signed a report which said frozen food was more likely origins of the virus than any lab-related incident whatsoever. But anyway, do pile on a single postdoc with one book. Sure, *that's* the issue. 2021-11-22 20:32:30 @macroliter @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Plus many of the issues with the initial known cases in the Worobey paper were *already* identified *months and months ago* by the so-called "internet sleuths" that have uncovered so many factual things of import that I can point to a few bigger issues than a single postdoc. 2021-11-22 20:29:35 @macroliter @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 The replies of hers that I verified as hidden as offensive was a factual inquiry to EcoHealth whose leadership is on their umpteenth round of "oh, well did we say that, well maybe that wasn't really correct" on key issues. A step outside the Twitter/grant bubble might help. 2021-11-22 19:57:04 It's not really that, though. It's broader, and more than refuting an argument. And like some of the other recognized fallacies, it straddles epistemology and sociology in how it operates. https://t.co/Dg9onRA2SX 2021-11-22 18:59:41 It's used in both manners. It's when ideas and/or arguments acquire falseness and/or inappropriateness by association with nefarious, unwanted or illegitimate forces either by being used by them in some version or even seen as empowering them. https://t.co/aNQgQwZBcV 2021-11-22 18:41:38 @fardarter @alexstamos No it is not. 2021-11-22 18:40:43 Does this fallacy have a name? I propose "appeal to weaponization." https://t.co/TOdycboTwO 2021-11-22 18:35:14 @alexstamos Zeynep's "appeal to weaponization" fallacy: Claiming that a particular argument, fact, or a version of thereof, has been used inappropriately or to support bad policies, therefore all attempts to raise this argument or fact are inappropriate or automatically lead to bad policies. 2021-11-22 18:28:17 @alexstamos Just mind-blowing that "think of the children has been used inappropriately in some contexts" can turn into "therefore let's not think of the children" even when the issue is obviously there. So many examples of this structure of fallacy that it must have a name? 2021-11-22 18:23:52 RT @alexstamos: This is a key point in an excellent thread. The safety impacts of E2EE are very different on apps that map onto existing so… 2021-11-22 17:34:48 Oh, finally. Almost two years in. One more topic in which fairly obvious and visible evidence was denied for so long that the result is both unnecessary suffering and loss of trust in authorities and experts exactly at the time their credibility is their most important tool. https://t.co/3Z0DzjAAJu 2021-11-22 17:01:25 @WryWryWry3 @drethescientist The fact that there are nutty conspiracies doesn't make all claims that the powerful conspire together (say, revolving doors), or that there are censorship in authoritarian governments, into "conspiracy theories". The smart approach is to have some sense into the difference. 2021-11-22 16:59:48 @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Honestly, maybe the flip example will help. When people ask if this was a bioweapon, I do ask them why on earth would smart scientists in China would pick a ... coronavirus to intentionally "weaponize" when there are real targets. Calling all critics "grifters" is same logic. 2021-11-22 16:57:59 @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Going so much against the grain of her whole field is obviously not the lucrative path—who the heck does a whole PhD and a postdoc and then anticipates a pandemic in which something like this would be a topic and then becomes a "grifter"??? How is this not obvious to many of you? 2021-11-22 16:56:01 @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 Alina Chan, or her book, is the least of the problem the "correct" field faces in this issue of origins, and it is amazing to me that so many cannot see this obvious fact and try to focus on the real problem, which has just begun to play out, and is potentially catastrophic. 2021-11-22 16:53:06 @drethescientist @WryWryWry3 In a world where people "in the field" put their name on "frozen food more likely than anything do to with lab" without evidence, logic or embarrassment, yeah, the field could use some prodding because, as usual, gatekeeping needs to be earned, otherwise it backfires. As it is. 2021-11-22 16:40:29 @C_Kavanagh What you are saying is a bit like the fact the tech folks probably like people like me criticizing the revolving doors at, say, FDA or FAA, but not FTC or the Dems-Silicon Valley version. Goose, gander, reality, though. 2021-11-22 16:38:23 @C_Kavanagh What post-pandemic "popularity" I may have is track-record. (Also, only "out" folks are held accountable on track-record). Same process played out with "criticizing tech platforms doesn't seem exactly verboten." When I started doing it, it was treated like being a flat-earther. 2021-11-22 16:26:11 @C_Kavanagh The problem, as usual, is that a whole field can become blind to the fact they are, in fact, drawn by the contrarian argument and some their critics are the ones stating out the most milquetoast obvious points. Unfortunately, such attitudes, in turn, damage the field itself. 2021-11-22 16:24:34 @C_Kavanagh That said, tech world does like contrarians—possibly another factor why they were so opposed to almost all my positions. Just like the pandemic, I tend to believe there are very few contrarian arguments that hold up, and most things are and were fairly obvious, and basic. 2021-11-22 16:22:34 @C_Kavanagh Wait, am *I* person with sympathy from the tech world? Hilarious, because I'm among the earliest, high-profile critics of tech—they didn't like me at all, similar to some field experts/pandemic. More like begrudging tolerance much later—after my positions became kinda mainstream. 2021-11-22 15:11:35 @WryWryWry3 The lucrative path in her field would have been to join the in-crowd which let Peter you-know-who lead the whole field by the nose into very troubling corner—the damaging effects of which are yet to play, likely for decades—for almost two years despite obvious, visible problems. 2021-11-22 14:36:28 So @Twitter could verify her, I suppose? Absolutely fine to disagree with her, as many do, but she’s not posting offensive content or anything needing censoring. She’s a junior person who upset a bunch of senior people. Such tensions can’t be settled under “misinformation” logic. https://t.co/FsVCoBcGSU 2021-11-22 14:32:10 This is a constant problem on platforms. People will gang up and report someone, baselessly, just to silence them and it works because managing this requires a high level of judgment. (In this case, she writes about COVID origins—a contentious, sometimes censored topic). 2021-11-22 14:28:36 I can verify this is happening to her replies that have no offensive content whatsoever—but in fact are substantive. It’s likely because people who disagree with her have reported her as “misinformation”—and the automated system is very prone to manipulation like this. https://t.co/gDJ3BpTSUP 2021-11-22 04:35:17 RT @BenRothenberg: This horseshit makes no mention of the whole reason for concern about Peng in the first place: she accused a Vice Premie… 2021-11-21 20:55:13 @mk_pagano @stacy_ksullivan Someone take my money, right? 2021-11-21 20:54:57 @stacy_ksullivan Yep! 2021-11-21 20:01:53 RT @MorrisonCSIS: That could be the core mission of am independent national commission, led by serious, credible leader figures. After a P… 2021-11-21 19:13:38 @cmyungtweet I saw that, and got my hopes up high. Was willing to consider . Alas, I'm not built like the average Asian women. (Or at least not built like what their data says). Can we have a Mediterranean petite, too? 2021-11-21 16:29:32 SAME! I hated biking till I encountered a bike that was actually designed for women—not a smaller men's bike. I was old enough to be armed with just the right credit card, purchased it on the spot even though it was expensive. I *loved* biking since. https://t.co/3msUtHZ0Ut 2021-11-21 16:26:09 (If people think surely business people would not miss money making opportunities because of cultural biases and preferences? Nope the history of markets and production is full of many examples of exactly that—sometimes, someone finally moves and only then everyone else goes ah!) 2021-11-21 16:23:56 I get how mass production works, but surely we can have more options that fit more bodies rather than a zillion variations on basic parkas almost all targeting average men plus a few for average women? I keep thinking this is driven more by culture than economics. 2021-11-21 16:22:08 I still remember the first time I encountered a hiking backpack designed for women, not having to chose between kids or men's. It was incredible. "Ah, so that's why backpack aren't just a source of pain." 2021-11-21 16:18:18 @DaveMc99TA Why on earth would it need to to be single state? The math seems pretty clear. https://t.co/588sLhKGyS https://t.co/XVNDb95Ih1 2021-11-21 16:13:39 Facing a New York winter (not my usual!), I walked into stores to purchase a proper parka. Hah. No go. Next time, I'll carry a sign:"PETITE WOMEN AREN'T SHORT MEN." Is there some math behind why it's still so hard to design for a wider range of people? Are short women that rare? 2021-11-21 16:08:12 RT @henricauvin: The U.S. has a vaccination rate that isn’t in the top 50 in the world — lower than many, many other countries that started… 2021-11-21 16:06:35 The number of votes Trump needed to flip to win the 2020 presidential election was fewer than the number of votes Clinton needed to flip to win the 2016 election. Trump fell short by only ~50K. (Yes, the popular vote wasn't close—talking about winning by the rules as they stand). https://t.co/SaVhLr1Tkp 2021-11-21 14:56:53 RT @ScottGottliebMD: From ⁦@zeynep⁩ on why U.S. was excessively vulnerable to Covid 2021-11-21 03:17:39 RT @jbloom_lab: But despite interviewing Dec 8 "earliest" patient, joint WHO-China team missed fact he didn't become symptomatic until Dec… 2021-11-21 03:17:15 RT @jbloom_lab: First to clear up point of confusion, there isn't new data about patient zero. As @BallouxFrancois explains (https://t.co/0… 2021-11-20 22:57:07 RT @nytimes: In Opinion: On the pandemic, columnist @zeynep writes that "it’s important to review the outbreak’s early days to see why the… 2021-11-20 18:36:30 RT @adamcifu: A good article. The first 4 paragraphs are such a good summary of where we are right now. What Happens After the Worst of the… 2021-11-20 17:56:15 @Lianne_R @courosa @Raffi_RC That is so beautiful, thank you!!! 2021-11-20 17:38:21 RT @SportsInsider: CNN anchors said China blocks the network's broadcast every time it covers Peng's disappearance. Anchor Erin Burnett al… 2021-11-20 16:58:14 Allowing her and her family free travel is the best option to know she’s safer. Still, as we have seen in the case of many Uyghurs who have escaped abroad, their families back home are threatened to try silence them. https://t.co/ev6Qu7MCho 2021-11-20 16:38:08 RT @AriBerman: Breaking: Ohio governor Mike DeWine signs extreme gerrymandered Congressional map giving Republicans 80-87% of seats in stat… 2021-11-20 01:18:47 RT @lequipe: Où est Peng Shuai ? Voici la une de L'Équipe du 20 novembre. https://t.co/vU50UXNorD 2021-11-20 00:18:13 @jeffzuk 2021-11-19 20:30:40 RT @ericpliu: "We need a new public spirit" 2021-11-19 17:58:57 RT @paimadhu: "Even a first-class ticket on the Titanic is still a ticket on the Titanic: we need a new public spirit: more people willing… 2021-11-19 17:55:25 @flodebarre @acritschristoph @MichaelWorobey @carlzimmer @benjmueller @franciscodeasis @amymaxmen @babarlelephant @Drinkwater5Reed Agree with this below. There has been pretty extensive valuable research by “sleuths” that keeps getting dismissed, unfairly. It’s also clear that we do not have anywhere near needed clarity or consistent information on *known* first cases, let alone actual first cases. https://t.co/858QA0zTbQ 2021-11-19 17:40:18 RT @MarchmanPatrick: Climate climate climate. Increasingly fascinated by institutional & 2021-11-19 16:02:16 @MichaelWorobey @flodebarre @carlzimmer @benjmueller @franciscodeasis @acritschristoph So what was Peter Daszak suggesting they would do: "aggressively pursued" what? Yeah, I am confused on what he could be referring to. The vendor was the first known market case: what other piece of information is necessary to "aggressively pursue" the issue of her stall/products? 2021-11-19 15:01:16 RT @JulianDrix: On point assessment from @zeynep about the deep and structural failures we’re living through 2021-11-19 14:06:16 @MaraHvistendahl Oh, my. Anonymous? Why? 2021-11-19 13:49:42 @stuartjdneil @flodebarre By itself, this doesn't even implicate any origin theory but people are turning themselves into pretzels to try to pretend it does, and ultimately, that does significant damage in my opinion, because historical record eventually gets corrected especially regarding obvious facts. 2021-11-19 13:47:28 @stuartjdneil @flodebarre That is actually a very good question, but not how it is being presented. Honestly, it's just embarrassing now. The WHO report on initial cases was hopelessly muddled (long-known) and Chinese scientists long ago credibly concluded market was likely amplification, not source. 2021-11-19 13:32:40 RT @thrasherxy: What a time warp sentiment about masks—feels like a lifetime ago, though it was only about 18 months ago. Via @zeynep 2021-11-19 13:19:46 Anyway, thread of mine from last July noting the WHO report had a significant number of contradictions and unexplained issues. The so-called "Internet sleuths" had identified many already, and many were in-your-face obvious. What an embarrassing episode. https://t.co/GKN7vpMHUJ 2021-11-19 13:08:31 Plus, we now learn from Peter Daszak that the WHO team that signed off on a report claiming frozen food was more likely origins than any lab connection says they NEVER ASKED THE FIRST KNOWN SEAFOOD MARKET CASE WHERE SHE WORKED OR WHERE HER PRODUCTS CAME FROM. Kinda out of words. https://t.co/1vn77TSJ6o 2021-11-19 13:06:12 There's a new article in Science—and a NYT piece about it—concerning a contradiction in the WHO report. Guess what, the "internet sleuths" long-dismissed, had identified that exact issue last May. It was in front of everyone's faces, but ignored, as usual. https://t.co/dCRkp4mpg1 2021-11-19 12:55:52 RT @JamesGleick: “When the pandemic is finally over, what will remain is not only 800,000 or more Americans dead but also a country too riv… 2021-11-19 12:49:15 @flodebarre @MichaelWorobey @carlzimmer @benjmueller @franciscodeasis @acritschristoph And now Peter Daszak says the WHO team that signed off on the report claiming frozen food was more likely origins than any lab connection whatsoever says they NEVER ASKED THE FIRST KNOWN SEAFOOD MARKET CASE WHERE SHE WORKED OR WHERE HER PRODUCTS CAME FROM. I'm kinda out of words. https://t.co/ukhRCuVzPo 2021-11-19 12:39:10 @flodebarre @MichaelWorobey @carlzimmer @benjmueller @franciscodeasis @acritschristoph The “internet sleuths”, long dismissed, have uncovered significant amount of discrepancies, errors, corrections and actually relevant information about the virus origins and before anyone else. But those either get ignored, or begrudgingly accepted when denial becomes impossible. 2021-11-19 02:03:54 RT @jenniferkates: Feeling all of this https://t.co/N4QCQloKXV https://t.co/oJc0Dh1mDD 2021-11-19 01:40:32 @JulianDrix Thank you! 2021-11-19 00:51:36 RT @margaretomara: Great piece from @zeynep on pandemic failures and the expanded political imagination and social solidarity needed now 2021-11-19 00:46:55 RT @AjitPai: On November 2, pro tennis player #PengShuai posted on Chinese social media about a former Vice Premier and high-ranking Chines… 2021-11-19 00:44:33 RT @BethanyAllenEbr: Exclusive: Marriott refused to host a Uyghur conference in Prague. citing "political neutrality." The decision reflec… 2021-11-18 23:23:10 RT @JimGoldgeier: It's that time of year when hopefully some folks on the academic job market are being offered professor jobs. If you are… 2021-11-18 21:37:20 @OmanReagan Yeah, totally. 2021-11-18 21:36:48 RT @OmanReagan: *Is* a stress test we *are* failing. 2021-11-18 21:01:05 I picked that analogy knowing very well that privilege insulates, exactly like that, but many first class passengers on the Titanic did die. And they were still on a ship sinking in icy waters. https://t.co/GKaaKqaYpR 2021-11-18 20:47:34 Yes, could not fit into this. Yes, I'm working on something longer, like a book. (Eeek!) We still have the winter to get through. I don't think the depth of the failure is widely appreciated yet—and the root causes stretch over many decades, not just now. https://t.co/eWhG9KoaHk 2021-11-18 20:34:53 The problems we face go far beyond funding cuts and and an anti-science attitude—though those things are *very* real. I had thousands and thousands of words on examples of things we just.. couldn't figure out and execute, even when we tried, even when we should have been able to. 2021-11-18 20:29:14 @KEVINTICE7 Read the paragraph right above it, the problems are not confined to a single party, but yes, anti-vaccine propaganda that we see from too many on that side of the aisle is nihilistic. 2021-11-18 20:23:49 The pandemic was a stress test we flunked. Our future depends on learning its lessons. Powerful groups may—again—try to impede needed reforms. I hope they realize that even a first-class ticket on the Titanic is still a ticket on the Titanic. New piece: https://t.co/ZnrtKRFRfC https://t.co/ObERS3ULUi 2021-11-18 03:54:22 @awgaffney 2021-11-17 18:57:11 RT @nktpnd: The cursor is literally visible in the screenshot here. This is something else. 2021-11-17 18:56:03 RT @AsteadWesley: my "i am not missing" email is raising questions already answered by my email 2021-11-17 15:58:56 @trombosit I don't mind being wrong, but those aren't my positions. Mandates below. On boosters: being concerned about what this means for vaccine equity is still very true, and on their need, yes, asking for data was the right move, imo, especially given equity. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT 2021-11-17 15:48:29 @andrew_croxford @BrianRWasik A key problem is that people keep thinking of vaccines/immunity as if they were drugs—like, say, antibiotics. You see this in discussions of side effects and safety, and now this. I have to say, some of the stupidity of the debate around dose-sparing strategies did not help this. 2021-11-17 15:02:27 Yep. A lot of childhood vaccines are three-dose primary series. Some have a few boosters, but most of them do not need annual ones. We don't yet know where this one will end up, but this seems like the least of our problems. https://t.co/oaRSzH96Me 2021-11-17 14:57:27 I'm very sympathetic to the notion that we haven't been where we need to be with communication around many issues. But adjusting dosing schedule once data comes in from large-scale real-life implementation is routine. It's called Phase IV trials. https://t.co/N3VPBiq4aI 2021-11-17 14:51:47 Here's the deal. The "booster" is turning out to be more than a boost for waning efficacy. It's both true that we should prioritize this globally—health-care workers and high-risk people everywhere first—and that it's a no-brainer at the individual level. https://t.co/Rb6Og3W74d 2021-11-17 14:47:33 This is so stupid. Annual boosters would be no big deal. That said, many other vaccines are a three-dose primary series. Some then have finite number of boosters—one or two, sometimes years later. The pandemic brought many hardships. Oh-noes-a-three-dose-primary-series isn't one. https://t.co/qyOpsuF4QX 2021-11-17 14:28:10 @megtirrell Excellent! I can't believe there wasn't some televised, pay-per-view fight over who got the Spikevax name. I cannot remember a better name for a drug or a vaccine. 2021-11-17 14:26:13 RT @megtirrell: European regulator says it’s started evaluating Novavax #covid19 vaccine, opinion could be issued within weeks. Brand name:… 2021-11-17 14:23:20 @Atul_Gawande Indeed. @dylanhmorris keeps pointing out the third shot improves antibody quality, not just quantity, and the efficacy doesn't just get "restored" to before, it sometimes exceeds anything seen before. And there are many other vaccines with three-dose primary series. 2021-11-16 13:26:48 RT @TheDebbieMia: The internet is magic sometimes. https://t.co/qeVdNIbo92 2021-11-16 00:43:47 RT @maassp: Just out, an article I worked on for a long time that reframes our understanding of the pandemic's early months: How Hospitals… 2021-11-13 21:31:30 (Also: I hadn't said econ undergrad to insult econ undergrads! It *is* appropriate homework to have young learners think through moral hazards via examples, but just not for this particular topic.) 2021-11-13 21:29:33 Fair point. A lot of economists have been pushing back against evidence-free assumptions around such nudges and/or incentives, and some of the best empirical post-pandemic work showing these concerns weren't warranted came from econ people. https://t.co/O3OLgHyhn3 2021-11-13 21:27:21 @wwwojtekk Fair point 2021-11-13 18:31:24 RT @GHS: 1.4 billion #COVID19 vaccine doses have been promised as donations to #COVAX from countries around the world. But of that 1.4B,… 2021-11-13 03:26:03 @tomgara Who you gonna believe, your lyin’ eyes? 2021-11-13 02:13:13 @mattyglesias Seasonality of some level, almost certainly a thing given how all other respiratory viruses go, will become more apparent once we run out of seronegative people. Probably overwhelmed in effect size by the presence of still significant number of immunologically naive people. 2021-11-12 21:59:05 @MikkoPackalen @joshgans Contact tracers, I can totally see. Do you have a link to the UK report? 2021-11-12 21:41:01 @rmc28 That sounds like an excellent use of the tests! Hope you remain without symptoms, but it's a great feeling knowing you didn't unknowingly extended the chain to someone who might have worse luck with it. 2021-11-12 21:19:45 FWIW, I've found rapid tests very useful despite vaccination. Sniffles? Flu vaccine side effects? Meeting people with varying levels of risk? I can afford rapid tests and use them because I'd like to lessen the chances of unknowingly infecting others. https://t.co/NdfqCUGxIB 2021-11-12 21:14:21 @MikkoPackalen @joshgans I've really not seen evidence people would evade free and convenient tests, though you can argue for more flexibility and support in the response. 2021-11-12 21:00:32 @RealNotFeel The thread is about providing free tests for the unvaccinated. It's not a punitive approach. 2021-11-12 20:55:02 @WndlB Yeah that didn't make sense either. 2021-11-12 20:54:35 @ChildrenNeedUs_ @ScottGottliebMD I mean, with all due respect to his virology credentials, many countries have used mass testing to beat back outbreaks. South Korea? Just look at what happened in the UK when a lab botched tests... The outbreak grew disproportionately in their area. 2021-11-12 20:52:38 Now *this* part may work, especially over time and depending on age, but it depends, in my view, on the details of enforcement and kind of barriers. A mixture of the face-saving element and hassle, more than the cost which can lead to withdrawal/forgery. https://t.co/3xaJq2YA4B 2021-11-12 20:43:55 @MikkoPackalen @joshgans When you read the testimonies/stories of even people who deliberately decided not to vaccinate with conviction more than mere confusion, their behavior upon infection is almost uniformly to isolate. Who wants to infect loved ones? A positive is an existential shock. 2021-11-12 20:42:15 @MikkoPackalen @joshgans I think the opposite: the isolation and tracing disincentives would need to be really, really high to discourage free and convenient testing. Hong Kong may be hitting this, by the way, their isolation policies are very strict, expensive and overly harsh so may discourage. 2021-11-12 20:35:47 @joshgans Good point. 2021-11-12 20:34:30 Policies aimed at humans, not Vulcans.People holding out on getting vaccinated this far into a global pandemic will likely respond to barriers to testing by... testing less. Something else is going on 2021-11-12 20:27:45 @MikkoPackalen Not attributing the case growth to this, or solely to this. Just the logic is wrong. 2021-11-12 20:26:20 @joshgans Totally appropriate econ undergrad homework to design moral hazard related policies... Not just for this! 2021-11-12 20:23:46 Moral hazards, risk compensation, financial incentives... Fine topics (and good homework subjects for econ undergrads!) but we need a bit of species-awareness here, along with some demand for empirical rigor and evidence before applying such logics to questions like this. 2021-11-12 20:15:36 Apparently, Germany stopped offering free rapid or PCR tests on the theory this would encourage remaining unvaccinated to get vaccinated. How many countries are designing public health policies by assigning it as homework to econ undergrads? Umpteenth example of this logic. https://t.co/bE2TZbV7DG 2021-11-12 16:24:50 RT @suelinwong: Very sad I won’t be able to continue reporting from Hong Kong. I loved getting to know the city and its people. I will miss… 2021-11-12 15:10:52 RT @kateelder: A critical by @Craig_A_Spencer on the importance of remaining vigilant in fighting for access for everyone, everywhere. Wh… 2021-11-12 14:20:14 @OrwellAcademy @ScottGottliebMD Where is the mystery? There is a lot of unvaccinated people remaining, and, similar to other respiratory illnesses, there will be some severe cases or worse among the elderly even after vaccination—immune system is less robust with age. https://t.co/xKdDn7FgJb https://t.co/dXmDDRahxe 2021-11-12 14:12:50 @ScottGottliebMD Yeah, similar to many places. 2021-11-12 14:05:02 @ScottGottliebMD I have to say, Germany seems pretty straightforward to explain—as you just did. Delta is tragically good at finding the unvaccinated/uninfected, and even, say, 15% of unvaccinated adults would be a large number to work through especially in a place without a prior large outbreak. 2021-11-12 14:01:26 People facing famine *will* try to flee, and Afghanistan's neighbors are not in a position to support even more refugees. They'll inevitably allow or even facilitate onward travel, and that's Europe. We know how that's going. Huge human cost *and* more political destabilization. 2021-11-12 13:55:40 A humanitarian crisis is fueling massive refugee outflows from Afghanistan—worsening food shortages and hunger seems to be a key driver. It is immoral and strategically foolish to withhold food aid because the Taliban are in power—especially since we also don't take in refugees. https://t.co/v1pV3IycIT 2021-11-12 13:21:38 It is necessarily ecological analysis, so the numbers aren't to be taken as precise but as arrows with a sense of the magnitude. Here's the second analysis, this time on a map, visually. https://t.co/gI1NcwXqYE 2021-11-12 13:19:01 *ahem* If one may interrupt the post-election re-re-rehashing of Twitter-popular debates with a bit of data: This is the second credible analysis that shows fairly strong swings toward Republicans in Virginia among Hispanic voters (while other groups remained pretty steady). https://t.co/KqU1U9auyT 2021-11-12 00:05:00 The press release of the results, the NEJM paper, actual epidemiological data. https://t.co/RcJ52JdzBQ 2021-11-11 18:56:03 @Bobmorevc @uche_blackstock @tressiemcphd Also caring about the profane/sacred, healthy/non-healthy, pure/impure, kosher/not distinctions among what people put in their bodies goes as far back as documented history, and more if we had documents, and is an integral and deep part of all human cultures. 2021-11-11 18:54:21 @Bobmorevc @uche_blackstock @tressiemcphd I disagree. There is a huge and constantly growing market based exactly on the idea that people very much and deeply care about the health implications of what they put in their bodies. Do they care the right way, always act "right", is the marketing bullshit... Different things. 2021-11-11 18:51:12 @uche_blackstock @tressiemcphd For example, I've seen Whole Foods-y places segregate GMO/organic checkout lanes from regular ones. On the one hand, this corresponds well to the profane/sacred division in the sociology of religion. OTOH, what on earth is the mechanism of "contamination"? Enter mRNA vaccines... 2021-11-11 18:48:21 @uche_blackstock @tressiemcphd Ironically, the vehicle—messenger RNA—is as transient as it gets, but that's not been part of the messaging on this, likely a mistake. We should have anticipated RNA/DNA etc. phrasing would produce an impact in the age of CRISPR, cloning, 23andMe, pre-implantation screening etc. 2021-11-11 18:43:01 @uche_blackstock @tressiemcphd I think the word "RNA" being in the most prominent vaccine type is playing a key role in all these fertility fears—also only about a third of pregnant people are vaccinated, similar fears. Decades of big news in genetics is related to genetic modification, screening, etc. 2021-11-11 17:58:31 RT @bencowling88: (1/7) Short thread on the potential value of tracking epidemiological parameters through a pandemic, not just at the star… 2021-11-11 16:58:15 RT @syramadad: Children are also eligible for the $100 incentive when they get vaccinated for #COVID19 at an @NYCHealthSystem location. Par… 2021-11-11 15:22:20 @Pinboard You'd get less gridlock, but you'd have a bare majority get to undo/oppose what bigger majorities did/tried, by reps produced by the non-competitive district system who also tend to be different than what a representative electoral system would produce. Spiral downward. 2021-11-11 15:19:18 @gahuti "Cumulatively" is a word there. 2021-11-11 15:18:49 It's untenable in the sense that you cannot have a well-functioning political system under these constraints. It distorts everything, and prevents the regular functioning of politics and governance. It's tenable in the sense yeah... it can go on. https://t.co/0dBqg22RWh 2021-11-11 15:02:14 In North Carolina, this also held at state level: a bare R majority held a *veto proof* two-thirds supermajority in the state legislature, so when Democrats did win the non-gerrymanderable race for governor, they faced a major and undemocratic obstacle to exercising that power. 2021-11-11 14:58:44 How about: I do understand what the Senate is. What's untenable is this level of divergence between voters, numerically, and their representation at pretty much every level of governance—cumulatively all pulling in the same direction: advantage R. https://t.co/4ElL4Pl8F0 2021-11-11 14:28:27 Untenable. Even if the Democrats win votes in congressional races in North Carolina by 53-46%, the Republicans would still get the majority of representatives. And this is on top of already lopsided Senate where ~600k in Wyoming have same number of senators as ~40 million in CA. https://t.co/XaHl4viUi8 2021-11-10 14:41:01 There is an alternate timeline of this pandemic, where we react early and aggressively to the evidence and the threat of exponential growth, where we look at our defenses as mere tools to debated as such and used as appropriate, rather than markers in a vicious political fight... 2021-11-10 14:31:49 After all this is over, I'm not staying completely home for minor colds. (Need cheap rapid tests to make sure and paid sick leave!). But even if I have the mildest sniffles, I'll wear a mask in the subway lessen the chances of passing it to someone elderly or immunocompromised. 2021-11-10 14:27:32 A post-pandemic culture of respectful acceptance of individual choices to guard against a broad array of respiratory diseases would be great (along with structural changes like better ventilation/filtering)! 2021-11-10 14:22:02 A general "let's not shake hands" as the greeting is perfectly fine, in my opinion. Many things are fine, even if to make things easy by codifying them at a general comfort level. Pretend fine-tuning to risk levels is the theater part. https://t.co/kFAbg2dKlo 2021-11-10 14:11:10 For example, doesn’t matter here. (Also fleeting masked moment in sunny outdoors, shake if you want). https://t.co/8ZPSm8ea0i 2021-11-10 14:05:28 Yeah handshakes are more distant. https://t.co/UUo8RULqnc 2021-11-10 14:03:07 It took a long time for WHO and other public health agencies to accept it (WHO still won’t say “airborne” which is the clearest term) and many, many people with credentials railed against the idea (puzzlingly) for a long time despite all the evidence. This is the result. https://t.co/xEaIN7xi77 2021-11-10 13:57:46 @JamesWard73 2021-11-10 13:57:00 @benryanwriter * anosmia (loss of sense of smell), not insomnia! 2021-11-10 13:54:50 On the one hand, in general m, I think people should be able to choose whether they want to shake hands, bump elbows or not. On the other hand, it’s an airborne virus and this is Covid theater. https://t.co/EtLFLW7G9X 2021-11-10 03:51:50 RT @zainrizvi: NEW: Moderna denied the NIH’s request to name federal scientists as co-inventors on a key coronavirus vaccine patent applica… 2021-11-10 01:07:11 RT @niubi: "Are there signs the pressure is leading to so many problems that the government may need to loosen up a bit?" Today's Sinocism,… 2021-11-09 22:10:21 RT @tekaldas: This is the “rule of law” in Egypt. 2021-11-09 14:10:49 @uselark This sentiment gets expressed, but I can find no evidence or reason to think this would be the case (anyone *still* not motivated to get vaccinated is not getting vaccinated for broader reasons), and it kind of baffling to me how so many people think this. 2021-11-07 23:48:57 @ofsevit Oh wow, what a story. Glad you made it okay. 2021-11-07 22:32:49 And an update to Memo! Apparently 2:38:05 today. Amazing. https://t.co/HWd7zeTJWx 2021-11-07 22:24:29 I saw somebody who had collapsed, about .2 miles from the marathon finish! Within sight! Man. He only had two cops around him, nobody medical, and it looked like he had hit the wall—not a heart attack or an injury. I really hope he got a sports drink or gel and walked to the end! 2021-11-07 22:18:52 Last of the people wrapping up! Now that’s inspiring. https://t.co/tfbUPggR0D 2021-11-07 22:00:15 @nxthompson Amazing! Congratulations. 2021-11-07 21:57:10 @Deaddog63289466 That is a good point! 2021-11-07 18:48:36 Anyway, let’s check in on Singapore. https://t.co/HeDbZQiAfR 2021-11-07 18:21:24 One they’re still running. Some of them are talking to each other! Two, the bit right after mile 26 is an incline. WTF? Three, a guy just walked by to finish line with a big sign and flowers, getting ready to propose to runner 9X. (I’m walking even slower to manage the average). https://t.co/PhiPnQ3seR 2021-11-07 17:40:34 @dmarthal Isn’t it incredible? And there’s hundreds of them. Streaming by. Almost all of them look like that! In response, I’m lowering my own competitive fitness goals by the mile. 2021-11-07 17:27:53 Mile 24, and these people are still running uphill. (Meanwhile, I walked the hypotenuse between miles 23 and 24 so averaging things out for humanity.) https://t.co/in3ptDRzzN 2021-11-07 16:57:50 Mile 23, running up an incline on 5th Avenue. Impressed crowd cheering them on. Me, I’m wondering if I should come back around the six hour mark to cheer on *my* aspirational people. https://t.co/9WkSPxqm9v 2021-11-07 16:22:58 RT @lorakolodny: Musk said back in Sept., when @karaswisher interviewed him at Code Conference 2021, he was already planning to sell a huge… 2021-11-07 15:23:50 (As a personal contribution to today’s NYC marathon excitement, I just may walk briskly to over to somewhere on the route to cheer a few on. At least *somewhat* briskly). 2021-11-07 15:23:24 Purest running story. Number 450. https://t.co/Wa24bM5oKC 2021-11-07 14:59:41 “Those who threaten the official version by raising questions about the government’s early cover-up and handling of the Wuhan outbreak face the party’s wrath. Zhang is among four citizen journalists - inc. Chen Qiushi, Fang Bin and Li Zehua - detained after reporting from Wuhan.” https://t.co/tymQd1d7c9 2021-11-06 23:20:00 CAFIAC FIX 2021-11-01 19:20:00 CAFIAC FIX 2021-11-01 17:30:00 CAFIAC FIX 2021-08-21 02:16:07 RT @AirMobilityCmd: CORRECTION: A @usairforce C-17 Globemaster III safely transported 823 Afghan citizens from Hamid Karzai International A… 2021-08-20 23:01:41 @EricTopol @US_FDA Indeed. We should be faster. 2021-08-20 21:13:43 RT @profshanecrotty: What can vaccinating your community do against Delta? Here’s the local San Diego status. Amazing. Vaccines are amazing… 2021-08-20 14:26:16 @deeptabhattacha Hi behavior change, side-effects keeping people home, selection effect, unaccounted confounding and, sure, eventually, some booster effects and where is that paper? Never mind. 2021-08-20 13:39:10 @dylanhmorris Second high-profile person telling people that the initial interval between the shots was so short that the second should count as primary immunization, not a booster. Trying to imagine how confusing this must seem. https://t.co/b1Pp0cMABz 2021-08-20 12:55:02 @dylanhmorris Wonder how people reading essentially the opposite of what they were told eight months ago must feel. "When you make that decision to do a three- or four-week interval, it sacrifices length of protection and durability of protection," https://t.co/cKtZphOmVK 2021-08-20 04:48:15 RT @cjchivers: PSA for evacuees in Afghanistan and those aiding them, to untangle ongoing confusion about location of gates mentioned in US… 2021-08-19 20:27:57 RT @julianborger: More than 100 guards at the British embassy in Kabul, some who have been there for 10+ years, have been told they are not… 2021-08-19 19:59:33 Adding the latest news article to this (still ongoing) misguided policy of erecting plastic barriers everywhere, at great cost, which may well be increasing risks by blocking ventilation. https://t.co/isyoLNotNO https://t.co/VmIWnoUEqY https://t.co/ZOMPG3QMOc 2021-08-19 17:33:16 @chrismerc1 @Chase113005 @sdbaral Politicians, especially those with an executive decision-making power, are an important category for equity and public behavior. It appears that he's had a third booster even though it's not standard of care, and has access to something that's not widely used (but should be). 2021-08-19 16:21:56 @DKThomp ...as if millions of stats 101 instructors suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. 2021-08-19 16:14:26 @nearlytoolate @David_Rasho @TonyBurnetti @jburnmurdoch @ZoeMcLaren So did the CDC! Always has. It was an "in case" provision, and likely did not happen a lot. And yet it led to NYT articles, very credentialed experts denouncing it, and viral outrage including by elected representatives. That's my point. We're confusing the hell out of people. 2021-08-19 16:08:40 @NahasNewman @Chase113005 @sdbaral High-level politicians are clearly and obviously high-risk if they keep doing what politicians do: meet revolving groups of constituents and others in crowded indoor places without extra precautions like rapid tests, vax status checks etc. Very few other such professions. 2021-08-19 16:05:41 @deeptabhattacha @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT (If you look at the article now it has some stealth edits making it slightly less worse.) So many examples like this, otherwise ordinary or minor stuff being turned into outrage/abandoning science etc., obviously existing trade-offs being treated as off-limits for discussion... 2021-08-19 16:02:27 @deeptabhattacha @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT Also, imagine how confused ordinary people must be after the mere suggestion in UK that boosters of a different brand were better than turning people away without one—especially if they were unlikely to come back or high risk, if original was unknown—generated this. https://t.co/zlR51QQRNZ 2021-08-19 15:49:26 @deeptabhattacha @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT I don't think anyone was unjustified in being uneasy! But the public discussion didn't include the obvious (the interval was remarkably short but got great response in trials) 2021-08-19 15:45:35 @deeptabhattacha @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT I don't think anyone argued any of the options were optimal 2021-08-19 15:26:39 @David_Rasho @TonyBurnetti @jburnmurdoch @ZoeMcLaren Forget that. I remember an article in the NYT with quotes from outraged scientists, I kid you not, simply because UK guidelines said that if someone shows up for a booster but isn't sure what they got before, it's better to use another brand rather than refuse a booster. 2021-08-19 15:08:49 @ZoeMcLaren @dianaberrent @jburnmurdoch Next generation? lol. How about last month. Remember all the Seychelles panic stories? Absolutely no follow-up, and now they are writing the exact same panic story for Iceland. Also will not have any follow-up. Goldfish have better memory. 2021-08-19 14:55:22 @weirdymcweirder @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT So yes, in a world without supply limits, of course you'd do all the boosters on schedule. The United States just escaped the trade-off because we have a lot more supply than almost anywhere in the world. Not at all true in the global scale. 2021-08-19 14:52:28 @weirdymcweirder @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT The effectiveness of the initial dose did drop with Delta, but again, when you are *supply-limited* the correct comparison is vaccinating more people earlier even with one dose versus leaving people *completely* unvaccinated. UK/Canada fought back alpha wave with dose-sparing. 2021-08-19 14:49:57 @ZoeMcLaren @jburnmurdoch Yes, unfortunately, that conversation just couldn't happen—we never even got a trial which would so obviously help. There will be very tragic papers written later, after all this is over, because we do have data from Canada and UK who just went ahead and implemented dose-sparing. 2021-08-19 14:45:23 @jburnmurdoch @ZoeMcLaren After months of can't touch the interval (I know folks not allowed to schedule the Pfizer booster even a mere week later than three) now it's well, actually, they were so close together that it was primary immunization, not booster? How are people not supposed to be confused? 2021-08-19 14:42:42 @jburnmurdoch @ZoeMcLaren I did, still reading the paper. The interval was very short compared to every other vaccine, and imo understandable given need for speed in trials. But it got treated like The Science(TM) rather than, that's what we did for reasons. Now, people hear this: https://t.co/KTPHMxTEUC 2021-08-19 14:23:26 RT @AdrienneLaF: Exclusively using a Magic 8-Ball for all decisions from now on. https://t.co/0XJ9ILjM07 2021-08-19 14:22:39 @ZoeMcLaren @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT I would say it was chosen to speed up trials, which made sense. However, I agree that pointing out the basic stuff that a lot of people are *now* pointing out, that longer intervals are both the norm and expected better outcome, was somehow tarred as not following the science. 2021-08-19 14:19:45 @EricTopol @hannahkuchler @jburnmurdoch @FT I cannot make sense of why they did this? (Pointed out by @dylanhmorris). Really would like to see the underlying data especially since it's randomized, which is so rare these days. https://t.co/KLM679HPNP 2021-08-19 13:58:59 @dylanhmorris Wait what how why 2021-08-19 13:37:27 @leafwarbler @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis https://t.co/UduuRZMZTK 2021-08-19 02:39:07 RT @meiralevinson: Important article showing that vaccination rates by ZIP code for 12-17 year-olds in Chicago range from 16%-75%, with wea… 2021-08-19 00:31:27 @Illegalemigran1 @lohplaces One dose EUA seems something to consider before boosters for immunocompetent young adults. 2021-08-19 00:24:20 @2020GTOY @ReallyJeffEvans @mattyglesias Yeah it’s very vague and unconfirmed stuff, only affects those of us prone to histrionics. 2021-08-19 00:23:12 @elks_man @mattyglesias Okay. Let people mourn these lives without getting gaslit about their existence because of domestic spats. That’s not too much to ask. 2021-08-18 23:54:23 @lohplaces Do we have any data either on that claim or boosters would help? I haven’t seen any. If we’re going data free and speculating, 5-12 EUA is a much better bet. 2021-08-18 23:46:09 @elks_man @mattyglesias A prerequisite to speaking on the subject should be acknowledgment that the people of Afghanistan who aren’t Western citizens but are now at grave risk because of cooperating with us are human beings that should count when we say “everyone will get out” maybe. 2021-08-18 23:43:38 @ilpomodoro2 @ok_post_guy @CollieYimby @mattyglesias “Everyone” makes it okay. https://t.co/5DEWs4nYt9 2021-08-18 23:40:13 @HeymanJordan @mattyglesias You can criticize the media without pretending these people don’t exist. Anecdotes and unconfirmed reports? Are you serious? The numbers are huge. 2021-08-18 23:38:06 @ilpomodoro2 @ok_post_guy @CollieYimby @mattyglesias We can be honest. People aren’t all going to get out. A large number of military people have been trying for years to get many of these people out and failing. And now there’s little chance even a fraction are making it out barring us paying off—a few billion if I had to guess. 2021-08-18 23:31:54 @ok_post_guy We shouldn’t pretend “everyone will get out okay” is a possibility. 2021-08-18 23:29:09 @CollieYimby @mattyglesias He thinks or pretends to think there’s any chance that “everyone will make it out okay”. He can go ahead and say I don’t give a damn about those people. At least it would be honest. 2021-08-18 23:26:46 @ok_post_guy You can’t be human. Is this Nazi satire? 2021-08-18 23:25:46 @CollieYimby @mattyglesias Unlike Matt, I put years of my life into opposing both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan when it was neither easy nor without risk to a new immigrant like me. So go away. 2021-08-18 23:21:03 @mattyglesias I mean, they should know better. Always get to the airport *at least* three hours in advance for international flights. smdh 2021-08-18 23:19:01 @mattyglesias I’ll try to pass the message to the many trapped in Kabul and other provinces, burning their documents in hiding, sending harrowing, despairing and unanswered appeals for help. (I guess we can assume the already-executed would have apologized for the unnecessary stress on us?) 2021-08-18 22:45:45 @tlaskawy @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis Would already be there. More since for sure. 2021-08-18 22:43:20 RT @HelenBranswell: Scientists I spoke to today had a lot of questions about the administration's decision to start giving Americans 3rd do… 2021-08-18 22:34:15 RT @mjb302: @zeynep Not just in LTC. Hospitals especially rehab & 2021-08-18 22:17:51 RT @kj_seung: Same thing for prisons? https://t.co/olbuN7WeyP 2021-08-18 22:16:34 @tlaskawy @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis The dates are in the screenshots, and in the unpaywalled link. 2021-08-18 22:07:46 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis I think Delta is terrible, likely more severe, clearly very very transmissible. Where did we get from that to boosters for all this Fall by press release? 2021-08-18 22:02:35 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis Today's MMWR. Lower efficacy against infection (which is real) almost entirely driven by the young. (How many are J& 2021-08-18 21:52:56 @theburningdeck @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis J& 2021-08-18 21:51:04 @DanielSingerS @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis If transmission reduction is the goal, and if we're now doing policy by no data but here's a press release *wink wink FDA study forthcoming*, better bang for buck is to EUA the 5-12 single shot before the school year gets going even more. They will get infected and transmit. 2021-08-18 21:49:16 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis Yeah, that's neither here or there. I couldn't make sense of that part. 2021-08-18 21:47:54 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis The vaccinated have done what was asked of them. But there's been a hiccup. Management was late to even recognizing the hiccup, and tragically the virus isn't a moral agent doling out perfect grades to the well-behaved. But the management would like to let you know they're on it. 2021-08-18 21:44:54 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis Those in healthcare will be. But it also doesn't make sense for 30-year-old people. Immunocompromised, elderly, J& 2021-08-18 21:35:50 @DKThomp @AlecMacGillis I don't know what was meant either, but the booster plan as presented today, had it been under Trump, would have caused a huge and well-deserved outcry. US is going to offer a third Moderna shot in September to a healthy, immunocompetent 18-year old why? 2021-08-18 20:35:53 @vcmcguire @KoskelanLintu I think people with risk factors are absolutely justified, especially given doses are going to waste, and I'm glad you make good use of one. My frustration is the idea we should offer all young healthy people a booster, with little to no data that suggests need or big effect. 2021-08-18 20:33:47 @dvir_a @mlipsitch @CT_Bergstrom @jsm2334 Also assuming urban/rural differences between who got vaccinated earlier and where Delta is spreading now—assume both would be more urban first, and pull in the direction observed thus overstated effect. Today's MMWR on NY hospitalizations was interesting & 2021-08-18 20:29:50 That's a good step. Elderly people in long-term care are especially vulnerable even if vaccinated—not just to COVID, to flu and even to common cold outbreaks—and require protection around them, especially cases like this where we have safe, effective vaccines. https://t.co/7nffr7mSQf 2021-08-18 18:44:28 RT @RobbieGramer: One small glimpse into the convoluted bureaucracy that Afghans have to navigate as they sort out their special immigrant… 2021-08-18 16:25:45 RT @HelenBranswell: .@CDC is standing up a new center for disease forecasting and outbreak analytics. This is some serious talent right her… 2021-08-18 16:10:59 @KristinaLerman Of course we direct limited supply to high-risk people first. You'd let high-risk people & 2021-08-18 16:03:31 @KristinaLerman There is absolutely no such evidence or any reason to think this, and a lot of evidence not to. 2021-08-18 15:53:08 Rapid tests widely distributed for free, fully approve the vaccines and broaden mandates, free higher-grade masks for indoor workers, boosters now for the immunocompromised, J& 2021-08-18 15:48:35 Yes, understandable for individuals. Which is why we need *policy* to be based on evidence, science, equity and precautionary principles *as warranted*. Boosters at-will for young healthy adults with two mRNA shots while countries lose healthcare workers? https://t.co/qRRFqwwW4k 2021-08-18 15:27:44 We don't have clear data. That's a tragedy, but here we are. Let's provide boosters anyway to people in long-term care facilities, the immunocompromised and maybe some high-risk folks and the elderly based on principles and limited data? Can see that. Everyone? Via press release? 2021-08-18 15:24:48 Here's that statement from the HHS. It says booster "subject to FDA conducting an independent evaluation and determination of the safety and effectiveness of a third dose". Why the press release *now*, then? How is this not pressure on the FDA? Come on. https://t.co/TE9rPseDAm https://t.co/lkzX9JrD2L 2021-08-18 15:22:32 So the US will soon provide "boosters" even to immunocompetent, healthy young adults with two doses of Moderna or Pfizer while many healthcare workers around the world without even a single shot work to respond to surges in nations with little vaccine supply? Where's that data? https://t.co/DepELYsTxY 2021-08-18 15:10:49 RT @SteveBellovin: Yet another example of how security is a SYSTEM property. You don't get it with clever cryptography or 2FA or memory-saf… 2021-08-18 15:00:34 As usual, the missing question for all such initiatives on social media platforms is how many people *on staff* are assessing these reports, globally, and what's the criteria? Meanwhile, opposing groups start mass reporting each other as "misleading" in 3, 2, 1... https://t.co/EKo76gpxEA 2021-08-18 14:58:37 @BetSnyder @sdbaral People as high-risk as him — which, as a public official, we should have more info given how little antibodies have been used, so who gets this?— should be widely getting this treatment. That's the obvious equity issue. 2021-08-18 14:53:04 @BetSnyder @sdbaral If that's a reason for booster shots, please have that be public with the justification and available to many other people. The point is about the inequity. 2021-08-18 14:49:30 @BetSnyder @sdbaral It should absolutely be used more widely, free-of-charge, for more ordinary people, especially if they have higher risk. The tweet is about the inequity of it all. 2021-08-18 14:48:12 @Chase113005 @sdbaral He's asymptotically positive, from reports—can happen from a bit of virus replicating in your nose with nothing further. I hope he doesn't get worse, but that itself is neither a catastrophic outcome, nor that surprising after that much aggressively high-risk activity. 2021-08-18 14:38:52 @sdbaral Did you see that the TX governor had a third shot already? (Besides also getting the expensive antibody treatments supposed to be for high-risk people for his asymptomatic positive that he got after relentlessly unmasked indoor events). 2021-08-18 02:17:31 “Wong said the amount of time Bahray has been waiting to rejoin his family is outrageous. His daughter, who was one-year-old when he came to Canada, is now 11.” https://t.co/MEtaBvjh3S 2021-08-18 02:12:01 RT @jkosseff: “The Taliban is wrong about Section 230” is not something I thought I’d have to say to a reporter but hey 2021 2021-08-18 00:38:43 RT @EricTopol: The latest data from San Diego County, another place where this is tracked, along with hospitalizations—which have remained… 2021-08-17 21:56:10 @BillHanage Never should have used relative risk measures like VE in broader discourse. Impossible to communicate about. 2021-08-17 21:18:18 Canada says they will take 20,000 people, a number much better than zero and better than many countries, from refugee camps of people *already* outside the country—people who already made it out. These girls are reportedly in Herat. They, like millions, are trapped—barring deals. https://t.co/xsLwNmbEFk 2021-08-17 21:11:31 I get the problem with tokenization, especially as a woman from the Middle East myself, but for so many from around the world, tokenization is a step *up* from the profound indifference to their lives. 2021-08-17 21:07:18 *Ugh delete last. Sorry for the typo. 2021-08-17 21:02:54 You know what's worse than being tokenized, and a source for navel-gazing feel-good stories? Being objects of fleeting PR? Not even being worth that anymore. They've been featured all over Western media last for years. They met prime minister Trudeau. There's only 20 of them. https://t.co/AkRHCizHXj 2021-08-17 18:46:51 RT @TBowmanNPR: We learned today that as many as 600 #Afghan soldiers are helping US maintain security at #Kabul Airport. And what happens… 2021-08-17 18:24:35 @jbakcoleman In NYC, the free rapid testing provided by the city requires you to fill a form, show a government ID, and then wait in a crowded reception room for about 30 minutes, with other people concerned enough to be tested! Excellent method for reassuring people just as infecting them. 2021-08-17 17:34:17 RT @rubinafillion: “Afghan girls and young women are once again where I have been — in despair over the thought that they might never be al… 2021-08-17 15:25:40 RT @jahootsen: From Dutch newspaper @NRC: When Afghan employees of the Dutch embassy in Kabul arrived at the office on Sunday, they were fl… 2021-08-17 15:16:32 @AaronRichterman @mugecevik @wanderer_jasnah Panic followed by haphazard policy is the m.o. of this pandemic, why change? It's only been about 20 months or so since this whole thing started. What's the hurry? 2021-08-17 14:03:33 @touchmeimdic Do they also teach reading at circling school? https://t.co/mnf8MS4hyd 2021-08-17 13:10:15 @truelyesoteric Fascinating, especially since you aren’t reading my sentence. 2021-08-17 04:25:32 RT @choo_ek: "... the moral challenge of saying us first. And second. And third. Then you." Will we really choose, as a nation, to go for… 2021-08-17 00:19:35 RT @nytimesworld: “It’s like a country is making food for the world and sees its food being shipped off to high-resource settings while its… 2021-08-16 23:16:44 @mulecanter Yes it is, to say the least, clearly not ideal. The story is linked. The crew decided they weren’t going to make anyone get off. 2021-08-16 22:31:37 @canadian_desi I’m sorry. Yeah that’s the situation all over. Maybe, just maybe, there’s a grand deal for safe passage. Otherwise none of those people are getting out. Not even the ones already in Kabul. 2021-08-16 22:29:40 @Alheri @MarjolaineKoch @Affordanceinfo2 Yeah. Please delete. 2021-08-16 22:29:13 @SammyBytes No. The article is linked. 2021-08-16 21:43:38 How are people even in Kabul going to get to the airport? With their papers? (If they haven’t burnt them, already, for obvious reasons). How is anyone anywhere else getting to Kabul? Truth is, most of them are not—even if some flight is ever available. The writing is on the wall. 2021-08-16 21:35:33 People are asking why there aren’t more women and children there. Because that’s what happens when, instead of a managed situation, it turns it into a perilous and dangerous fight. This flight set the record for a C-17 because people fought their way in. The crew decided to fly. https://t.co/3U2QvWkaLR 2021-08-16 21:21:45 @mjpcohen Yeah that unredacted dump with names of Afghans who worked with Western organizations spelled out without being deleted. Nobody seems to think Afghans are actual people, not props. 2021-08-16 14:26:35 People can at least pretend to accept Afghans as human beings, their suffering as real and mumble some thoughts and prayers? The bar for pretend humanity isn’t high. We know what’s happening and what was inevitable and blah blah blah. Just one crocodile tear, please. It’ll do. https://t.co/A6DkSF5uAl 2021-08-16 14:21:23 @mr_james_c I just can’t handle people who can’t even manage crocodile tears, especially for the women but also for all the people who worked for us and we didn’t bother evacuating in time. Just have the decency to pretend to care, mumble some perfunctory thoughts and prayers. 2021-08-16 14:09:05 People immediately rushing to remind me dogs are valuable too or we had to leave—who said otherwise. But as those heartless, callous commenters remind me, it’s a hierarchy in which people or Afghanistan don’t even get crocodile tears. They’re, at best, props for domestic policy. 2021-08-16 14:05:07 This also happened in Kabul. People clung to an evacuation plane — these are carrying embassy staff —and fell to their deaths. The video should be distressing, though many won’t care it seems. https://t.co/t7jqDcTu1n 2021-08-16 13:51:45 Only the military side of the Kabul airport has been secured, leaving ordinary civilians with no flights or a functioning airport. The women’s rights leaders who’ll be hunted by the Taliban had no chance. But no worries, the evacuation of dogs is proceeding in an orderly manner. https://t.co/qevjlgExpw 2021-08-15 04:34:45 @blakehounshell 2021-08-14 19:09:14 RT @JenniferCabala: Berlin never stopped masking. Medical grade required everywhere indoors. Workplaces and schools test everyone 2-3 times… 2021-08-14 00:06:26 @Shmaesh @tulipforger I’m so glad both of you made it through! 2021-08-13 23:35:52 @jsalsman @matthewstoller Better reading comprehension at the core county would be helpful, I guess? I’m talking about evacuating tens of thousands of people who are at high risk of being tortured and killed along with their families because they worked for us. You seem to be stuck on drone strikes. 2021-08-13 20:03:40 @jsalsman @matthewstoller You’re the only one talking about winning. Who said anything about winning now or before? 2021-08-13 18:12:24 @JonWalkerDC @matthewstoller We’re not talking about stiffing people out of their last paycheck. We have a list of who they are. They’re going to be killed because they worked for us. Their families are going to be killed. They’re going to be tortured. This isn’t about building anything in Afghanistan. 2021-08-13 18:06:06 @The_Real_IJM @JonWalkerDC @matthewstoller Evacuating people who will be tortured and slaughtered because they worked for us for years. Your objection should be directed to anybody suggesting continuing an occupation or presence. 2021-08-13 18:02:46 @JonWalkerDC @matthewstoller Tens of thousands of people and their families who worked with the United States for years are at risk of being tortured and slaughtered because of that. Yes, if there is a bureaucratic backlog, first you evacuate them then you sort it out. 2021-08-13 17:59:51 @zoelle I’m glad you got through it! 2021-08-13 17:52:36 @matthewstoller Yes. We have a giant military that is very very competent in logistics with massive amounts of hardware. These people have been known to us for years. We employed them. Evacuating them to safety should have been a minimal requirement. The bureaucracy can be sorted out later. 2021-08-13 17:40:11 @matthewstoller I guess as long as the tens of thousands or more Afghans and their families that the United States worked with for years who are now being left behind to be slaughtered instead of being evacuated don’t count, yeah no better way. 2021-08-13 16:11:07 @katecrime13 Also a smug person without understanding of how debilitating real phobias can be, or empathy, apparently. Congratulations. 2021-08-13 03:47:52 @WorkersDance I’m glad she got through it. 2021-08-13 03:46:08 @keithmann Exactly 2021-08-13 03:45:42 @EmpressNorton @steveglista @shellen Honestly great to hear! 2021-08-13 01:25:45 @steveglista @shellen Glad to hear that! 2021-08-13 01:19:56 @fiddlesix Wow. That’s a story. 2021-08-13 01:08:54 @BathyCathy Of course! Hope you can go with a friend! There should be a way to match people. 2021-08-13 01:05:45 @JudahWorldChamp Sounds like you’re the only one in the room without an N95 and hospital likely has great ventilation. You can ask? 2021-08-13 00:52:39 @EmilyDreyfuss @jjfeline Wow. I’m sorry. Ugh. 2021-08-13 00:46:58 @EmilyDreyfuss @jjfeline One, that is terrible. Two, like how many Xanaxes (is that the plural?) are these people prescribing anyway for this? Doesn't seem like a high-risk event? 2021-08-13 00:41:29 @JudahWorldChamp @EricTopol @TheLancet @HopkinsMedicine Hospital in the United States tend to have very good ventilation, and I suspect so does Hopkins Medicine, especially in patient areas. They are built for this, and in general I would trust them. (I've no idea why not in MRI rooms). 2021-08-13 00:38:49 @lynnhagewood I think a lot of people will go along with mandates, because they are not ideologically opposed but just need that extra push. 2021-08-13 00:36:07 @tamsnow22 You should be! The fear is real, and good for him for being so brave. 2021-08-13 00:35:27 @EmilyDreyfuss Wowze. It sounds right, and terrible. What's the scenario? People are going to get vaccinated again and again just to get some Xanax? 2021-08-13 00:33:49 @EricTopol @TheLancet That's UK right? Worse ventilation than US hospitals, and infection-control societies were (some still are) very resistant to upgrading from "droplet" precautions. (There was a recent harrowing case from Finland: pretty clear involvement of ventilation but also denial). 2021-08-13 00:29:13 @LisaBaertlein That's so great. 2021-08-13 00:28:18 Indeed. But this is the United States. IIRC, a third of the population has no primary-care provider, and who's going to do this with a high deductible plan? Low-anxiety sections or pop-up clinics might help. https://t.co/bqp7GGoVuP 2021-08-13 00:26:17 Ah, this is great: a special section of the clinic. Also, folks, the person featured here is is a neuroscientist and molecular biologist. She was frozen with fear, and breaking down crying repeatedly. It took a special clinic, therapy, personal support. https://t.co/pBEDQ2PBGI https://t.co/3pujv6pcYr 2021-08-13 00:20:32 To "get over it" people. I'm not afraid of needles, and maybe you aren't either. But having irrational fears, knowing they're irrational, being embarrassed about it, and avoiding even life-saving interventions because of such fears... it's human. None of us are pure rationality. 2021-08-13 00:13:24 Yes, good point. I have a dentist and a dentist-phobic person in my family, and the former has so many stories and I have so many stories of the latter going to extreme lengths to avoid the simplest visit. It's not rational, but it's human. https://t.co/J8ccTkoB2e 2021-08-13 00:03:27 A reminder not just to media (of this known problem that should have been taken more seriously) but also just general awareness: some people in your life are just afraid of needles and may not be telling you, but might be able to manage it with support. https://t.co/Tz9KtslskG 2021-08-13 00:00:41 I'd like you to introduce you to this weird species that you seem a bit unfamiliar with. I've no doubt that there's a non-trivial number of people who are very afraid of ventilators, but are also frozen with fear of needles. Phobias are human and common. https://t.co/qkJjUsUvfk 2021-08-12 23:56:49 Agree. I've long been for mandates for anyone working with vulnerable populations (elderly, children, immunocompromised, hospitalized) but I think more push along with more support has more room to go than we imagine. https://t.co/HgMOUsF57N 2021-08-12 23:54:07 I've been hearing stories of people who aren't vaccinated simply because of fear of needles —yes, they *know* the rational arguments—and also stories of people whose loved ones helped them get it done: take them there, hold their hand, anti-anxiety meds, breathe-in, breathe-out. 2021-08-12 23:51:04 I went on media and mentioned something that's no surprise to any healthcare worker: some people are just really afraid of needles. They don't always admit it in polls, but they are there. But with some support, they can get vaccinated. Since then, I've been getting emails. https://t.co/Rs9crtiEqq 2021-08-12 22:19:31 All that said, imo, the WHO report should have dismissed *only* the frozen food hypothesis as unlikely, implausible and "come on don't make us look that bad" and left others as plausible, and needing a proper investigation including especially early case info and some raw data. 2021-08-12 22:17:41 Ferris sounds right on this: Dr. Embarek seems to consider researcher getting infected as something that comes under "direct zoonosis" and rated "likely" in the WHO report, and he considers that scenario plausible—a different question than likelihood. https://t.co/as3tST0GRF 2021-08-12 22:10:20 @ferrisjabr @angie_rasmussen I think he's referring to the WHO categorizations, and that he considers researcher-> 2021-08-12 22:05:15 More on the mistranslation claim. The issue is Dr. Embarek may have said "plausible" or "likely" to the possibility of a researcher infected in the field. (Adam says "David" is mistyped, he's traveling and that they translated directly from documentary). https://t.co/2E5Xv48R5S 2021-08-12 21:52:54 @angie_rasmussen @emilyrauhala @mradamtaylor So "plausible" rather than "likely? Anything else? Any other contested phrase? (Or any other phrase specifically contested by Ben Embarek? I assumed that an editor would insist on sticking in any specific objection and translation was checked. If not, it should be put in there). 2021-08-12 21:26:19 @sealsniper_urt @R_H_Ebright @alchemytoday Because we haven't had our brains eaten by whataboutery? (I suspect you haven't either, because this level stupidity wouldn't pass by a second grader). 2021-08-12 21:25:21 @emilyrauhala @angie_rasmussen @mradamtaylor Since it was challenged, you should link to the source (if/when it airs) and maybe include what Dr. Embarek says is the correct translation and/or have a formal Danish translator confirm? I assumed this was checked, especially given the objection. 2021-08-12 21:11:57 @angie_rasmussen cc:@mradamtaylor @emilyrauhala who reported all this as what "he said" reportedly based on the documentary and unaired footage from it. I assumed WaPo checked this claim—if not, absolutely, they should issue a major correction. 2021-08-12 19:23:05 @sealsniper_urt @alchemytoday No, the opposite. He got included in the WHO team despite, repeatedly, calling anything to do with the lab "baloney" for a year and leading the campaign against the mere idea, despite lack of any basis to make that claim—and that is the least of his problems. 2021-08-12 19:15:33 @uhf243 @alchemytoday Also, what pressure? The team included Dr. Daszak, for example. It was not at all aggressive on this question. Or any question. The report is mostly a summary of "what we got told" and has tons of contradictions with published research... 2021-08-12 19:02:14 @alchemytoday Weirdest false equivalence. One had every reason to be included—just like no lab involvement—but was politically dictated to be excluded, downgraded, and called for no further inquiry—dictated by the party covering up evidence. No problem telling these two apart. 2021-08-12 18:50:30 @mikkelsknudsen They clearly put conditions on what could be included, and how, and it happened that way. (That's how the actually unlikely "frozen food" theory gets a higher likelihood, without a shred of evidence, than lab/research activities which get dismissed, as per the dictate—we learn). 2021-08-12 18:03:56 @TheTropaion I know, in the report, the whole move gets a single sentence cursory dismissal—almost insulting, to be honest—and I haven't *even* seen the addresses reported in media, let alone the whole thing discussed much if at all. It's a big deal! So much underreporting. 2021-08-12 17:58:28 @alchemytoday As per the article, it's his *counterpart* (meaning, the head of the Chinese delegation, not a friendly colleague with whom he's chitchatting), and it's not his "counterpart" expressing a mere opinion: it's that person deciding what's allowed in the report. 2021-08-12 16:53:02 @raginghalfasian That's unfortunate because it's very real, not uncommon and something to address, not make fun of. It's just a thing some people have—everyone has something. This one happens to be a barrier to vaccines, so we should support people manage it. 2021-08-12 16:44:11 I mean, the above is caption obvious, but I'm glad it's being acknowledged. Also good to see a few reporters bothering to keep up pointing out and reporting the basics and more. I'll repeat: many of the really key *and* out-in-the-open issues are still not reported on much. 2021-08-12 16:41:02 @raginghalfasian I'm so glad you got through it! It's not uncommon, and really good for you to work thorough it. 2021-08-12 16:40:21 Also, the WHO team lead considers researcher getting infected in the field in the "likely" category —as a mix of "lab-leak" and direct infection— and also says there could have been human error but "the Chinese political system does not allow authorities to acknowledge that." https://t.co/sSHFmA2VVU 2021-08-12 16:36:52 So, the Washington Post is reporting that the head of the WHO origins investigation team now says they essentially got dictated by the Chinese officials what possibilities could be included in their report on virus origins, and with what conditions. https://t.co/PBPz9h7xrc https://t.co/NlMZ5A3Z9T 2021-08-12 13:55:02 Excellent news for the New York Times, hiring @tressiemcphd—She’s always, always interesting and thought-provoking. https://t.co/81GVC7XYGn 2021-08-12 13:52:42 @tressiemcphd 2021-08-12 02:30:47 @GuardianJessica Thank you. 2021-08-11 22:46:31 @_AndreaZanoni_ Thank you! 2021-08-11 20:06:14 RT @jessfca: "The current public sphere — shaped by human tendencies, politics, financial incentives and platform and algorithmic design wh… 2021-08-11 13:57:49 @Cuchulainn111 Not one of those statements is backed by credible data (the breakthrough rates are much lower in systematic studies), and there is credible data in the opposite direction. I say this as someone who is very much in the "let's do our best to get people protected" camp. 2021-08-11 00:43:29 @bgurley At a minimum, we should focus on people who are without very strong opinions about it… 2021-08-10 18:06:10 @kevinroose But yeah, good for capturing what this kind of data can capture which is pretty striking. (Although I think the news/not-news content labeling is very difficult at that scale to capture what's going on—we needed a proper panel since forever but never had one). 2021-08-10 18:04:02 @kevinroose There's a complex feedback cycle over time and we're stuck trying to understand it without access to either end of the interaction (the people or the algo/recs) over time. So we get stuck at "was it the platform or the people?" even though the question doesn't make sense. 2021-08-10 17:14:38 @chris_bail Besides the data we don't have to arrive at strong conclusions, I wish we'd get at least beyond the structure/agency duality espoused in these non-conclusions.... How could anyone be arguing it's just the algorithm? The stance doesn't exist, and yet it keeps getting knocked down. 2021-08-10 17:11:58 @iamj7e That is a terrible one! 2021-08-10 15:38:17 Yeah, it's a thing. We'd get a lot more mileage from trying to work through the less-ideological issues and providing the combination of push (mandates/loss of access) and opportunity (support/time-off/access) than finding yet another person to get mad at. https://t.co/P0vKuOkJFz 2021-08-10 15:30:47 @JamesSurowiecki No, at least 90% of 65+ have had at least on dose—we couldn't get 90% agreement among any age group that puppies are cute. That number is, in fact, incredible and proof of how not deep-seated this resistance is viewed broadly, given the scale of the propaganda onslaught. 2021-08-10 15:25:13 Any healthcare person will tell you: this is not a rare issue. I know a few educated people who dragged their feet simply because of needle fear, and also wouldn't admit openly. Anyway, a lot of problems are more boring than we think, but require work. https://t.co/jwWlTqALC6 2021-08-10 15:22:21 Substantial numbers of the remaining unvaccinated are minorities and/or working poor. Our healthcare system has never worked well, so here we are. Yes, the Tucker Carlson onslaught is terrible but almost all the elderly—prime target for Fox—are vaccinated! Reality *can* trump. 2021-08-10 15:15:27 Twitter has been showing me this story for days, a nurse who won't get vaccinated despite having lost two parents to COVID. Yes, she exists. But if you look broadly, we also see a lot of "afraid of side effects", "doesn't have time off" and "just needs to speak to someone." https://t.co/a8SNIjgLaV 2021-08-10 15:13:20 @MarcusBeam1 That's always been not a small number of people. 2021-08-10 15:11:01 The incessant media/social media focus on the stories of the few highly-determined "anti-photogenic" individuals—the ones that confirm all the caricatures—is obscuring the many who might get vaccinated with the right push, mandate or loss of options. *That* should be our focus. https://t.co/A2d9r8IB9X 2021-08-10 14:49:46 @chris_bail Plus, this "news" category is not how the world works now. Anyway, I get the pressure to publish, and I don't mind efforts with whatever data we have! But there is no answering the algorithm/person interaction without examining the.. algorithm/person interaction over time. 2021-08-10 14:46:42 @chris_bail The field refuses to concede we need: actual data from You Tube and/or a solid longitudinal panel with a qualitative component to even get at the question. Likely both. (Also, come on, who has ever claimed that it's only the algorithm/platform design and users are irrelevant?) 2021-08-10 14:44:51 @chris_bail You got my hopes up high! That independent researchers have gotten access to recommendation data! Alas, they have none. But look what they do show—besides invoking the usual "is it the platform or is it the user" false dichotomy that has zero basis from any scholar that I know. https://t.co/D7gdvrt5pk 2021-08-10 04:00:06 @Jabip It’s not the norm but there are many. It’s absurd. 2021-08-10 03:58:13 RT @redouad: Our vaccination data is updated: https://t.co/03pQ8rRViP 4.46 billion doses have been administered globally Share of peo… 2021-08-10 00:22:38 @LadyScorcher @JOHNJOHNSTONED @kitchencone 2021-08-10 00:18:01 I’m constantly walking by “outdoor” sections of restaurants in NYC so tightly-sealed that they’re.. air-conditioned. 18 months into a pandemic! In the worst hit city in the United States!During a new surge. Meanwhile no returns because Covid! This isn’t how it should be. https://t.co/XDfLVDfIvn 2021-08-09 23:58:48 @JOHNJOHNSTONED @kitchencone Where did he say that? 2021-08-09 23:48:27 @maxrogo I think there will be a re-examination of all respiratory viruses after the dust settles down. A bunch of incorrect conflations have been challenged and/or are being corrected. 2021-08-09 23:47:12 The weird part if this is the way to make credentials count is to make them work for is when we need them. I wish we were like other countries whose scientists recognized and recommended ventilation and masks—airborne mitigations—early on. Basics shouldn’t have been a fight. 2021-08-09 23:43:31 Wrote about ventilation and aerosol transmission for The Atlantic and The New York Times, including early on in the pandemic to put it on the mitigation agenda when it wasn’t, and co-author on a Lancet paper on it with 20th highest altmetric score out of ~17 million papers. Ok? https://t.co/0nl0RFLDRf 2021-08-09 21:19:38 RT @benyt: An incredible pair of pieces on insider and outsider journalism by @WilliamJBroad: The Times reporter who was part of an atomic… 2021-08-09 18:02:01 RT @AdrienneLaF: One of the best stories I have ever read, by @JenSeniorNY: https://t.co/DZP0V6moaN 2021-08-09 17:54:05 @trishgreenhalgh I had to check the date of the article a few times. Then checked the URL to make sure it wasn't a hoax. August 2021! I can even imagine some ongoing debate and disagreement, why not, but this was like a parody... 2021-08-09 17:36:30 @Chris_Said There are many scientific papers, and have been for more than a year. You're looking at random Twitter replies on a single tweet instead? (That review had multiple replies, too... Obviously, you don't follow the scientific lit which is fine but I'd keep from making claims then). 2021-08-09 17:14:31 At least hide behind "the science has changed", you know? (Even though, after some understandable confusion at first, the evidence became pretty clear by Spring of 2020.) They double down, eighteen months into a pandemic? The amount of global harm caused by these fragile egos... 2021-08-09 17:10:07 Imagine if we had started with precautions against aerosols—opened windows, went outside, avoided crowded indoors rather than six-feet rules, ventilated and filtered air, wore masks and paid attention to fit and filter (droplet interpretation is why they didn't recommend masks).. 2021-08-09 17:06:49 Oh my. The same team that the WHO has hired to review evidence on transmission of COVID *still* says it likely spreads by droplets and contact, rather than being airborne. (Competent countries' scientists had concluded it was airborne in February of 2020.) https://t.co/eOnsyXIcRa https://t.co/EyuiucEwCZ 2021-08-09 16:22:20 RT @linseymarr: Good summary of @drkristenkc @Don_Milton et al's study on virus emitted by Covid-19 patients. https://t.co/XIwvqP9WuT 2021-08-09 14:34:56 RT @EricTopol: I wrote about the implications of the breakdown at @CDCgov for not tracking breakthrough infections during the Delta wave @g… 2021-08-09 00:05:54 @bokane Okay, copied the whole list thank you! 2021-08-08 23:26:45 @abrowngaywrites It’s by @dylanhmorris! 2021-08-08 19:20:46 @tiffehr @nytopinion @Sarah_Smarsh 2021-08-08 16:50:26 RT @VegetablesReidy: If you read one article to understand vaccinations in relation to Covid evolution, make it this. I finally understand… 2021-08-08 16:28:06 RT @FaceTheNation: “Schools aren't inherently safe,” @ScottGottliebMD says. “They can be made more safe if you take the proper steps. But w… 2021-08-08 14:44:09 The print version has Rodin’s Thinker, with a mask at hand. I hope he’s also pondering a full FDA approval for vaccines now, expanding mandates, a strong push to reach more people, increasing mAb use, and urgent attention to school openings—masks, ventilation and rapid tests. https://t.co/TcZQkvq5Ha 2021-08-08 14:36:24 @DrLesterColl Thank you! 2021-08-07 15:04:30 @ridgewaychris Thank you. 2021-08-07 03:46:06 RT @EdBelongia: New study of viral RNA in exhaled breath of ppl with Covid19 (some without symptoms): ”94% of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies were… 2021-08-06 13:27:28 @j_g_allen What a story! 2021-08-06 13:02:17 @CarlosdelRio7 @mapintl @kkariko Congratulations! 2021-08-05 14:17:39 @NatalieGExum @CDCgov Thank you. 2021-08-05 14:17:11 @chiefmaven @pursuitofPH Is it public? 2021-08-05 13:42:08 @meganranney Thank you. Their job is tough, and the environment difficult. Could not sympathize more. But this just makes it more crucial that they excel at what's under their control, applying their own principles better. 2021-08-05 02:11:48 @khmayer1 @nytimes Thank you! 2021-08-05 01:17:47 @AaronRichterman “Vaccine efficacy” becoming the measure we talk about most really hasn’t been the best for understanding. 2021-08-05 01:07:00 @j_g_allen It’s a fine study but very limited and tells us very little new, in my view, that wasn’t better documented even back in June. Didn’t feel pivotal in content which kind of leaves two options: exaggerations or confusion. 2021-08-05 01:04:12 @efb_1 @j_g_allen India, tragically is in the millions just by itself. https://t.co/5jbsuhgUkK 2021-08-05 01:02:56 @andrea_s_bitar I think vaccines are indeed the more important tool, but these things are additive. Also my key issue was we should have tied it to benchmarks: transparency both ways. 2021-08-05 00:59:57 @CarlosdelRio7 @PaulSaxMD @CDCgov Yes. It’s such a challenging environment. In my view that makes it even more important for them to excel at things under their own control, and things we know they can do better. Last week/months felt short of that as Delta engulfed us. Anonymous leaks, missing denominators… 2021-08-05 00:57:04 @j_g_allen Thank you. 2021-08-04 23:17:20 @joeamon @PublicsHealth @CDCgov Yeah, despite the word limit I tried to make it clear none of this is easy. Especially hard in this environment, which makes them doing an excellent job even more crucial. I suspect a lot of capacity has been lost before this, and needs restoring. 2021-08-04 23:10:41 FWIW, my piece from May on indoor mask guidance change: I wrote it was too soon and it was unrealistic to expect the unvaccinated to keep masking, and we should tie lifting mandates to benchmarks to protect the immunocompromised & 2021-08-04 20:40:48 RT @kreissdaniel: Amid rampant inappropriate donor influence @UNC @UNCHussman right now, the university is spending its time targeting facu… 2021-08-04 20:39:12 RT @mkonnikova: "A pandemic is a communications emergency as much as it is a medical crisis. Effective communication is much more than choo… 2021-08-04 18:26:57 Massachusetts has much higher than average vaccination among nursing home staff, but it's already seeing increases in cases. Such congregate living facilities for the elderly are *exactly* where Delta can do much damage. We should demand higher standards. https://t.co/a6vUNhX6LN 2021-08-04 18:22:25 This needs to happen nation-wide. Nursing homes house a vulnerable population even when vaccinated—the immune system is less robust as we age, and many people in these facilities have other conditions. Many already mandate flu vaccine for staff, as they should. Add this, too. https://t.co/hZ357amnWg 2021-08-04 15:21:49 On media coverage, especially on the Delta vaccinated/unvaccinated transmission that administration officials were upset with: Honestly, I agree with them that some coverage was pretty misleading—but it's *their* job to leave less space for that by being super clear and forceful. 2021-08-04 14:54:27 RT @katestarbird: At a time when society desperately needs mechanisms for independently auditing what’s happening w/in soc med platforms —… 2021-08-04 14:51:18 @GirlDetectiveX @mdbremner I wrote about Delta in May. I was (and remain) more worried about the unvaccinated, of which we have millions, but clearly it is even thornier—data from UK and Israel over June got worse and worse. https://t.co/e5KzQow6wk 2021-08-04 14:11:06 @MarkMulvey Thank you. 2021-08-04 14:00:11 As I note in the piece, the CDC has such a difficult job right now, and many things aren't under its control. Still, we should say it can to do better: react early, forcefully and with a unified voice to brewing crises like Delta. We had data leak in dribs and drabs... 2021-08-04 13:43:01 The CDC has a tough job, but it can do better by following its own recommendation that public health authorities " , , ", and avoid releasing information late & 2021-08-04 13:17:27 @PaulSaxMD @CDCgov Thank you! I certainly understand their challenges, But they have an excellent understanding and recommendations themselves on what they could be doing better, despite all that! 2021-08-04 03:07:02 RT @shannimcg: I cannot understand this move by FB. My team had benefitted greatly from @LauraEdelson2 & 2021-08-04 01:20:47 @looserooster Where do you get the idea Delta is 1000x more contagious? It is not. That said, better fit and filter masks, of course, are more protective but cloth masks—especially a well-fitting one—will help both to dampen transmission and to protect you, compared to not wearing one. 2021-08-02 18:35:54 @AaronRichterman Seems fairly weak to hang the "vaccinated breakthroughs and unvaccinated infected individuals are indistinguishable in viral load" idea in general (though again, Delta sucks and I lean towards precaution but still wondering if that's all we got that's driving the news?) 2021-08-02 18:33:35 @AaronRichterman Again, I've no doubt some vaccinated Delta breakthroughs are transmitting but the Wisconsin paper has.. 17 vaccinated Delta breakthroughs total. Are these few people that got fairly ill, thus likely to get tested? What's their relationship to Delta breakthroughs in general? 2021-08-02 18:17:42 @AaronRichterman So are we getting that claim only from the Ptown outbreak (and since the Singapore paper showing brief period among the vaccinated with lower CT values?). I keep thinking I must be missing a crucial study somewhere? 2021-08-02 18:16:30 @AaronRichterman So read the India HCW paper. It's isn't CTs/viral loads in vaccinated vs unvaccinated HCWs—it's CTs/viral loads by variant *among* vaccinated. No doubt some Delta breakthroughs transmit but this doesn't say unvaccinated indistinguishable from vaccinated.+ https://t.co/mQLCXVEKLq https://t.co/xaeDZKgOhU 2021-08-02 17:30:48 @BYU_FacultyEdit Of course! I'm not at all dismissing the plight of the unvaccinated, especially kids who aren't eligible, or even the threat to immunocompromised or the elderly even if they are vaccinated. (Wrote about it last week). Hope your case is mild and over soon. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt 2021-08-02 16:22:27 @wanderer_jasnah https://t.co/EgcbWYLoBw 2021-08-02 12:50:54 RT @nateschenkkan: In 2021 you can watch transnational repression play out in real time at the world's premier global sporting event https:… 2021-08-01 22:16:28 @EricTopol That vertical line. Everywhere Delta reaches the unvaccinated. 2021-08-01 20:37:58 @dtweiseth Also it’s the one thing for which we have the statistics done fairly well in the United States. 2021-08-01 17:56:25 RT @selinawangtv: Waiting outside Tokyo Haneda airport international terminal for Krystsina Tsimanouskaya. She's a Belarusian #Olympic spri… 2021-08-01 16:18:31 Not doing a vaccine efficacy calculation here. But there were more hospitalizations in *one* week (ending on January 09, 2021: 6679) in the US than *all* vaccine breakthrough hospitalizations combined since May. Deaths among hospitalized is lower, too. https://t.co/NP99kWrjAO 2021-08-01 16:01:44 Fair part: Delta will continue to burn through the US (maybe about another month or two, judging from other countries?) and there will be more breakthroughs & 2021-08-01 15:46:31 Me neither! Nobody wants to get sick, even if vaccinated. The point is vaccinating as many as possible, as fast as possible, is the clear way forward. Delta waves (around the world) are fast—on the way up and down—and do great damage to the unvaccinated. https://t.co/kjdq0VcK7o 2021-08-01 15:34:46 Delta is continuing to take a terrible toll, around the world, on the unvaccinated—and billions still do not have access to any vaccine! Of course it would be better if it didn't cause breakthroughs either, but the way forward is clear and unchanged. Vaccinate before infection. 2021-08-01 15:31:44 This isn't saying let's throw the elderly under the bus—the unvaccinated mortality was horrific and unacceptable. But a small amount of vaccine failure, mostly among the elderly, isn't COVID-specific. That's just age. All nursing home staff must be vaccinated against flu & 2021-08-01 15:27:30 Every piece of data from real-life shows the vaccines work very, very well— yes, even against Delta. Just checked US vaccine breakthrough hospitalizations. It's 6,587 people among the ~163,000,000 vaccinated: or 0.004%. Three fourths are elderly— as happens with other diseases. https://t.co/TmZkxRlETk https://t.co/fUaTyXprey 2021-07-31 16:09:08 @matthewstoller Not that any have been reported so far, but most were vaccinated anyway—and vaccination rates are especially high among the elderly. So the vulnerable “target” was much reduced. 2021-07-31 13:55:12 Yes. It’s clearly one of the worst-case scenarios we’ve encountered. And it showed how well the vaccines work. That’s why it’s so useful as long as we put it in the correct context. https://t.co/MOzYdG9De6 2021-07-31 13:36:16 Provincetown was a worse case scenario from what I can tell—week of overcrowded, indoors and close-contact— and also really unlucky (remember how one South Korean infected maybe 5000+ in 2020?). But many were vaccinated. Result: it’s over. No deaths. Very very few severe illness. https://t.co/3okrV8HlSh 2021-07-31 13:18:29 @dylanhmorris Oooh.. That would be amazing. 2021-07-31 13:14:26 @dylanhmorris cc:@wanderer_jasnah https://t.co/a7pT5I874F 2021-07-31 13:11:53 @dylanhmorris Conditional probabilities, base-rate fallacy, exponential vs. linear dynamics, selecting on the dependent variable, point estimates from tiny non-random samples, shape of underlying distribution. (Just spitballing for a future syllabus on causal inference, a propos of nothing.) 2021-07-31 13:07:34 @dylanhmorris A propos of nothing… 2021-07-30 20:57:48 @MoMoPerry @dylanhmorris CNN should not be publishing “news” articles out of a single mathematical model, is what I think. 2021-07-30 20:36:45 @AaronRichterman @dylanhmorris Also thinking of this thread, maybe? And the likely shortened serial interval. I think @ScottGottliebMD may be right that we’re deeper into this wave than it appears. https://t.co/WUSrTxysuK 2021-07-30 20:35:09 @AaronRichterman @phil_marsden @dylanhmorris Yep 2021-07-30 18:47:16 RT @AaronRichterman: apropos of nothing, reupping this awesome figure made by @dylanhmorris https://t.co/zalpC7Aesm 2021-07-30 13:59:55 @notdred Also all the selecting on the dependent variable! One can only surrender. (Teaching causal inference again soon, will be “fun”). 2021-07-30 13:46:28 @notdred Heh, no just reiterating a general principle. We’re only 18 months into a pandemic, attempting to bring in demoninators is still not allowed. Too advanced. 2021-07-30 13:42:12 @notdred Flag on the play. Bringing in a denominator is not allowed in this discussion. https://t.co/P6vbtT25lh 2021-07-30 13:17:46 @JenniferNuzzo I’m guessing that much more in-home transmission compared to before, and maybe testing/isolating should be the focus as well? Though also trying to imagine testing/isolation compliance among unvaccinated? Worth trying while trying to vaccinate (hopefully the outbreak spurs more). 2021-07-30 12:30:10 @ScottGottliebMD @WashPost Test positivity in some outbreak states is back up to winter 2021 levels. (See Missouri, for example). Some, not yet. But looking elsewhere suggests rapid rise, rapid fall once it burns through. Was about two months in India—though with very low background vaccination rate. 2021-07-30 04:35:09 @jeremyfaust @biomathematicus @JacobBAguilar @LWestafer The circular part is there were (even until recently!) assertions that it couldn’t possibly be airborne because R not high enough. (TB is airborne but not high R0 but anyway). Then you submit evidence of high R… Can’t be because not airborne. (Also overdispersion but yeah). 2021-07-30 04:18:16 @jeremyfaust @biomathematicus @JacobBAguilar @LWestafer Circular thinking exhibit A. 2021-07-30 04:04:05 @matseinarsen It washed over the unvaccinated. (Which weren’t a big group in either country). Did the same in India—except there, millions died. 2021-07-30 03:52:23 @PrasadKasibhat1 @HuffmanLabDU Agree some of the tragedy is baked in. But NPIs and better awareness can help. Also some significant protection kicks in as soon as two weeks after first dose, so rapid vaccination can get ahead of some of it, especially before we hit Fall. 2021-07-30 02:44:42 We’ve had suggested data on that, suggesting more severity, since May. Maybe. Definitely more transmissible—a lot more. Much much more. Shorter serial interval seems likely as well. That’s bad enough without extra severity. Vaccination is the answer. https://t.co/vcry2VCrdT 2021-07-30 02:12:24 @ZoeMcLaren @notdred @BrianRWasik No they changed surveillance in May just as Delta was getting going so not comparable from what I can tell. That said, no doubt Delta is bad news. That’s been clear since May. 2021-07-30 02:04:40 @notdred @ZoeMcLaren @BrianRWasik Also we stopped tracking breakthroughs unless hospitalized why? I was remembering the May conversations. https://t.co/bIaKNqrGGL 2021-07-30 01:58:25 @notdred @ZoeMcLaren @BrianRWasik I don’t doubt Delta breakthroughs are transmitting, some, especially if symptomatic. This is from my piece last week. But what’s the denominator? Passive surveillance will lean towards sicker cases/clusters. What are we looking at overall? https://t.co/5OCHNripGB 2021-07-30 01:54:26 Best data is massive real life data. https://t.co/YR5LQoBerg 2021-07-30 01:53:14 @MatthewDavidH @toddheberlein @wanderer_jasnah Yeah 2021-07-30 01:48:31 @PaulSaxMD @CDCgov @washingtonpost And timely communication about the moment. 2021-07-30 01:35:43 @michaelzlin This happened with vaccine trials, too. I learned of things from Moderna investor calls. 2021-07-30 01:14:25 @BrianRWasik Yes to wait and see, but also wary of selecting on the dependent variable but not being cognizant of it in analyses or communication. It’s fine it’s the data you have, and you know what you do have… and, more importantly, don’t. Confusion ahead. 2021-07-30 01:11:59 RT @ScottGottliebMD: It’s critical public health agencies communicate what they know - and don’t know - in a timely way. In crisis, even pa… 2021-07-29 01:16:58 RT @Caesarofthe90s: People are really arguing emoji mathematics in the comments 2021-07-28 15:32:44 @AaronRichterman Reverse engineering her statement: they have data showing 95% efficacy against hospitalization & 2021-07-28 15:23:20 @AaronRichterman Yeah. I haven't been able to make sense of it, hoping for some clarity. 2021-07-28 15:19:44 @seth_parker @EricTopol @Nature @nytimes Single dose for previously infected people is shown to be superior protection to infection alone, but also they don't need a booster. 2021-07-28 15:10:11 @AaronRichterman We definitely need clear communication. This is so confusing. 2021-07-28 13:09:23 RT @EricTopol: Just published @nature Soon (10-12 days) after 1st dose of an mRNA vaccine, fully functional CD8+ T cells kick in to provide… 2021-07-28 12:40:23 RT @alisonannyoung: After two lab workers diagnosed with fatal brain disease, five public research institutions in France have imposed a 3-… 2021-07-28 04:26:55 RT @ashishkjha: The delta variant is a problem We have all the tools needed to control it and get our lives back But our national dysfunc… 2021-07-27 18:34:54 Excellent pictorial explanation of what a "shorter serial interval" (almost certainly true for Delta in my view) means for delta from @wanderer_jasnah. https://t.co/f7GkzdKs4w 2021-07-27 18:07:17 An excellent thread on gain-of-function research. Highly recommend the linked interview with Ralph Baric. You don't have to agree with him—and note that he is defending his research, as is his right—but this is still a genuine conversation that's not avoiding the hard questions. https://t.co/ZfRrwbDffs https://t.co/JQtutIYc6V 2021-07-27 17:29:04 @EricTopol Speaking of which, and not just because of the shape of these curves in multiple countries, but significantly shorter serial interval for Delta has a pretty strong case, no? (cc:@wanderer_jasnah and @dylanhmorris) 2021-07-27 17:24:23 RT @bhrenton: Vermont's nation-leading vaccination rate of 83.6% of eligible residents puts the state as having the lowest hospitalization… 2021-07-27 14:16:45 @ashishkjha Thank you! 2021-07-27 14:03:52 @ProfOzev @ashishkjha Huh? I wrote one of the earliest pieces warning about Delta back in May, when it wasn’t on the agenda much. You are right that there’s a lot unnecessary scaremongering as well on many things, including on many variants. https://t.co/e5KzQow6wk 2021-07-26 20:26:39 @KetanJ0 Even putting aside all the other problems with it, I just don't see how the "over-message" strategy works for the stated goal. When we do try to warn about a real threat (say, about Delta two months ago), it gets lost in the noise. 2021-07-26 19:24:55 Some more context. VA is the first federal agency to mandate this vaccine for healthcare workers. (Many hospital systems already mandate influenza vaccines for their staff—hospital employees, necessarily, interact with vulnerable population). https://t.co/AR4naZIuNN 2021-07-26 19:07:42 More. https://t.co/BDasWmFk24 2021-07-26 18:07:31 A few states are moving to vaccination or regular testing. https://t.co/4OV1vFcfzT 2021-07-26 12:59:22 Earlier thread as reminder: "herd immunity" is neither something easy to calculate (we rarely have random serosurveys), nor a single number that works like a switch (networks are heterogeneous, people's response to an outbreak changes transmission etc...) https://t.co/hRDsZBq9Q9 2021-07-26 12:54:44 @markdelaneysays @Bob_Wachter Not for everyone, but for people working with vulnerable populations, why not? We have a lot of precedent for that. 2021-07-26 04:42:57 More, from @Bob_Wachter. https://t.co/XlAWTqwyxG 2021-07-25 19:56:11 RT @HuffmanLabDU: "Globally, the Covid-19 pandemic is a threat bc of scarcity of vax, w/ ... Delta variant threatening millions around the… 2021-07-25 18:26:57 RT @KBibbinsDomingo: We can debate on where, when, how to institute new measures during this surge …but the fact that we have states wher… 2021-07-25 14:26:10 @RossBarkan Thank you! 2021-07-25 13:12:08 RT @CarlosdelRio7: Read this outstanding oped by @zeynep 2021-07-25 03:09:44 This is a good question. Many nursing homes mandate the flu vaccine. Covid is not less of a risk. https://t.co/tHWvGuZRpN 2021-07-25 00:28:08 RT @luckytran: Agree with @zeynep on much of this It isn’t hopeless We have many actionables: mask & 2021-07-24 23:42:32 RT @elliagne: I've seen that people can truly understand the need for vaccination once their family has been hit hard by the virus or if th… 2021-07-24 23:41:51 @MarketUrbanism You have this with tuberculosis, too 2021-07-24 21:56:51 @CarlosdelRio7 Thank you! 2021-07-24 21:26:57 @elliagne Indeed. 2021-07-24 20:30:44 Evidence is strong that the vaccines remain highly-effective against Delta, but there’s no contradiction between that and saying a surge like the one in the US still requires a collective response, and vaccines aren’t 100% especially for the elderly or the immunocompromised. https://t.co/BUPb4efLYq 2021-07-24 20:00:20 @DrTomFrieden They really have been stellar on that. 2021-07-24 19:59:30 @ArditiMd On both questions, we are relying on UK data or Singapore tracing. Even if to to reassure, we should have systematic data especially as the high circulation keeps the threat up. Thank you! 2021-07-24 19:58:29 @ArditiMd On the vaccinated breakthroughs and/or transmission. I agree it would be much less, but we had messaging that implied almost never. I think that’s not true with Delta. Systematic tracing shows examples, and my anectode pile is growing (never had with alpha). Would like clarity. https://t.co/s7DR5Ym9XN 2021-07-24 19:56:11 @ArditiMd Thank you. I agree the severity question is unresolved but there is systematic early data from England and UK, showing increased severity, but less so now. So something to watch for (which is what I note). Of course, the transmissibility is the key and huge threat (like alpha). 2021-07-24 19:52:37 @khmayer1 @nytopinion Thank you! 2021-07-24 18:34:36 This is a good article. The unvaccinated in the United States are not a monolith. We can, and we should try, to get our numbers much higher. The hard-core “never” numbers aren’t as high as it sometimes seems. A lot of in-between. https://t.co/Pu8u57ulNB 2021-07-24 18:19:20 RT @dvshah: Yup. Strategies for management in spite of widespread vaccine hesitancy. 2021-07-24 18:18:40 @blevimyers Thank you! 2021-07-24 17:30:01 @Aiims1742 Yes, it's terrible. We really haven't prioritized the well-being of children throughout this pandemic, and it's just heartbreaking to see yet a third year start with so much confusion for parents trying to navigate it all. 2021-07-24 17:21:39 Also, we really cannot, should not, expect parents of children under 12, who are not be able to vaccinate their children, to start the *third* school year of the pandemic with this much confusion. Parents need concrete information, not broad statistics. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt https://t.co/1fNfTC7o9m 2021-07-24 17:16:37 @AdrienneRoyer I'm so sorry. The elderly are sometimes treated very badly in our society. 2021-07-24 17:09:13 @AdrienneRoyer It's really not a good system, for residents or the overworked, underpaid staff. 2021-07-24 17:01:40 The "labor shortage" can be solved by offering higher-wages and better working conditions. Most nursing homes are for-profit and receive substantial amounts of of taxpayer money, but many fail their residents and underpay their staff. This isn't working. https://t.co/kLmhHpU6Tq 2021-07-24 16:57:53 Vaccine mandates are already used. We have an ongoing pandemic and many vulnerable populations who cannot fully protect themselves via vaccination. People have a right to refuse vaccination, but not a right to infect the elderly or the immunocompromised. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt https://t.co/HoaI2BQBZL 2021-07-24 16:49:11 40% of staff in nursing homes and long-term care facilities are unvaccinated. They can transmit to the elderly, whose immune systems are less robust even if vaccinated. Children under 12 cannot be vaccinated. The immunocompromised aren't as well protected. https://t.co/2HhJe7liwG 2021-07-24 16:38:32 RT @andrew_croxford: Great article by @zeynep about obstacles faced in the USA, currently inhibiting vaccine uptake. Rather than simply hig… 2021-07-24 16:31:56 @rklau @Gothsalts Yes. That’s terrible. Sorry. 2021-07-24 16:31:21 I don’t think that’s really a valid general theory—the real evolutionary pressure is on transmitting and replicating, so as long as that happens the rest can vary in many ways. But our immune system does learn to fight viruses so repeated exposure can result in milder case. https://t.co/awxKNfJZoy 2021-07-24 15:56:05 RT @rklau: Excellent piece from ⁦@zeynep⁩ (as always) on vaccinations as our best chance to combat Delta surge. Also, this is infuriating:… 2021-07-24 15:55:39 Yep. The situation for them is immensely confusing and frustrating—this isn’t some small afterthought. Tens of millions of households! Plus there’s the immunocompromised. https://t.co/HnAdVAzPuQ 2021-07-24 15:36:07 I wrote about Delta and why we should not surrender to our dysfunction. There's much to be done, from vaccine mandates (yes, yes, it's time) to strong mitigations in schools (the "unvaccinated" include ~50 million children under 12) to response to surges. https://t.co/IPweE0gymt https://t.co/RWES6JE3pb 2021-07-24 13:37:30 RT @RepublikMagazin: «Nahezu jeder Sars-Fall seit dem ersten Ausbruch 2003 liess sich auf ‹Labor­lecks› zurück­führen. In einem Fall kam di… 2021-07-22 17:19:51 RT @TMclaughlin3: "But it underscored something more troubling: the extent to which China is brazenly persecuting Chinese people around the… 2021-07-21 13:27:32 RT @austinramzy: After complaints from China, Kodak deletes a post on its Instagram account of images by photographer who called Xinjiang a… 2021-07-20 20:17:49 RT @LiShuo_GP: Extreme precipitation and terrifying floods hitting the most populous province of China now. Parts of the province, where av… 2021-07-20 14:20:18 RT @JimMillward: More horrifying testimony from the Uyghur region, by the poet Tahir Hamut Izgil. A powerful contribution to the Uyghur li… 2021-07-20 13:31:53 @sinanaral Thank you! 2021-07-20 03:47:26 @Pinboard No, it must pretend to be fresh. 2021-07-20 03:46:42 @lurker96256700 @jesswatki118 @mattyglesias @dylanhmorris Yes 2021-07-20 00:03:44 @Pinboard I’m just gonna send the same tweet out every three months. 2021-07-19 23:57:39 @lurker96256700 @jesswatki118 @mattyglesias I think that article by @dylanhmorris makes what’s among the most important but overlooked points in this pandemic. 2021-07-19 23:55:42 @saraht_74 Thank you! 2021-07-19 20:51:12 After about a month+ in transition to NYC from NC, with some travel in the middle, I'm mostly settled in but who knows how many emails I missed. If you emailed me in the meantime and I didn't respond at all, feel free to email me again! 2021-07-19 19:21:03 RT @geoffreyyork: Decline in life expectancy in South Africa as a result of the pandemic: 2021-07-19 18:59:53 @svscarpino @RockefellerFdn @RickABright Wow! Congratulations! 2021-07-19 16:59:42 No, hard to get answers that way, different places and time periods. Again: trials, cohort studies, registries etc. doing (as best as we can) apples-to-apples comparisons is what we needed. Would have been really smart and cost-effective in the long run. https://t.co/QkUJc0xZyh 2021-07-19 16:56:40 I think UK's Recovery trial was exemplary, and I just wish we had more, both randomized and cohort studies. There's a bunch of things around which we don't have the clarity we easily could have had. (FWIW: this isn't saying any answer is wrong. I just want more trials). 2021-07-19 16:39:49 @BrianRWasik Yeah. I get wanting to get through the trials fast, makes sense! But it's a pandemic, so let's get going on the phase IV stuff ASAP as well. Fraction of the wasted resources (and worse, confusion) from not having a trial imo. Also how many lives did dexa save? UK Recovery ftw. 2021-07-19 16:35:06 @BrianRWasik I'm just annoyed that we don't set up trials for these things. We're administering hundreds of millions of doses in a hurry, why not randomize a bit among some less risky sub-population? UK Recovery seems to be the only proper effort, tbh, to measure the kitchen sink phase. 2021-07-19 16:30:54 I don't know the answer. I'm just saying these things can easily be studied by setting up trials as we administer things—usually classic phase IV studies but we're in a hurry. It may be a small difference, but would be good to know. https://t.co/7qm91XxGF3 2021-07-19 16:27:47 @james_e_baldwin They wouldn't schedule it even a day later than three weeks even if asked, and at the time getting an appointment was very, very hard. Don't get me wrong, of course people should get their shots as soon as possible, but clarity would be useful. 2021-07-19 16:23:44 Another topic on which clarity would be good. (The three week interval is strikingly short for *any* vaccine. I know of a single other vaccine that even *allows* an interval as short as three weeks. It seems Pfizer picked three weeks to speed up trials, but then it got stuck). 2021-07-19 16:20:27 UK JVCI: “There is very good immunological and vaccine effectiveness evidence that the longer you leave that second dose the better for Pfizer and eight weeks seems to be a reasonable compromise.” US did three weeks. CDC said six weeks okay but I know people asked & 2021-07-19 14:13:14 @henryfarrell @kelly_zvobgo To the point that c before k zeynep has her own google alert, by necessity. 2021-07-19 01:12:26 @dylanhmorris Yeah for some reason the whole reason for dose-sparing (No supply! Wish we had had all the supply!) keeps getting lost in this debate. It's going to be an encounter one way or the other, and soon. We have supply limits. So here we are. 2021-07-18 15:57:47 @hswapnil Yeah. Already or soon. 2021-07-18 15:40:08 Despite a later start due to restricted supply, Canada is doing great in comparison and has surpassed United States in first doses. https://t.co/ah1f80dJfU 2021-07-18 02:44:29 RT @DFisman: Absolutely. The issue with covid is not just that it puts people in the icu. It’s that it takes a long time for them to leav… 2021-07-18 02:44:26 RT @AbraarKaran: Our op-ed summarizing the findings of our recent study in CID @IDSAInfo from @BrighamWomens looking at risk of #SARSCoV2 t… 2021-07-16 22:54:39 @DanielSingerS @BillHanage @MackayIM Yeah. Still so much unnecessary suffering. Timing really makes a big difference with these processes. 2021-07-16 22:49:24 @runasand @CT_Bergstrom Looks like that bird is the manager. 2021-07-16 22:48:49 @BillHanage @MackayIM Not that I approve of what the United Kingdom is doing—why not a tiny bit of patience—but the log scale is looking better. (Log scale rules my world ). https://t.co/u3g7qNpGp6 2021-07-16 22:43:47 RT @CT_Bergstrom: Lord give me the confidence of a molting Brewer's blackbird. https://t.co/lKHoEdciYK 2021-07-16 18:15:46 RT @toyns: It's just four David Bowies. https://t.co/fM7hiqUaBp 2021-07-16 15:18:05 I love how many New York restaurants and cafes have outdoor seating now. I hope we keep it! But for the purposes of the pandemic, the point is to be outdoors, you know? Not sure what their practical usable range will be in winter, but heating elements do extend the season. 2021-07-16 15:15:34 Programming note: if your “outdoor” restaurant seating is so tightly-sealed that you can air-condition it, it’s not outdoors. https://t.co/5UkaxuUMXP 2021-07-16 14:08:57 @EricTopol @JonathanEmont I'm so horrified at those vertical epi c̶u̶r̶v̶e̶ lines. So many countries now. So frustrating, we're just watching this happen despite having had heads up month ago. 2021-07-16 14:07:25 RT @EricTopol: The horrific tragedy in Indonesia, population 271 million, 4th largest in the world, > 2021-07-15 23:59:27 @mattmerk Hahhaa 2021-07-15 23:17:53 @SteveBellovin Right watch is set to UTC! (Looking for arguments here). 2021-07-15 23:17:23 I'm afraid to do the programming languages version. Let's just say that the first one is definitely not memory safe. 2021-07-15 23:14:03 For your stats: R, SPSS, SAS, Python. https://t.co/m0WhmTfORJ 2021-07-15 23:04:28 @CognitionPmc 2021-07-15 22:54:26 "Yeah, two watches. You see, both have a bluetooth connections to a raspberry pi, and I'm working on my mills mess juggle..." 2021-07-15 22:49:10 I mean, two watches? Of course that's a computer science conference. https://t.co/Zd2OM42KhJ 2021-07-15 22:38:06 Conferences: Anthro, PolSci, Law, Computer Science. https://t.co/9L2s9Xwc7j 2021-07-15 20:12:49 The "ethical concern" seems to be outright fabricated data. I haven't confirmed it myself but it looks like another Surgisphere incident. (This particular paper wasn't peer-reviewed 2021-07-15 19:05:51 @FT__Dan @emilyrauhala @scmp_joma I don't know what to tell you. Of course I've seen the SCMP story, but I haven't seen any attempt to follow up. From what I can tell, the Chinese officials essentially "we've excluded those" but no clinical data (even anonymized etc.) is shared. Another ongoing mystery. 2021-07-15 17:21:28 @nattyover Maybe? But the kind of errors and contradictions I'm talking about are basic and glaring. I left out pages of such basic stuff from my own NYT piece because it was already sooo long. At least just noting "so little information, and extensive ongoing cover-up" would be better. 2021-07-15 17:14:59 Point out what minimal information we've been given is full of contradictions and errors *and* there's clearly on ongoing and extensive cover-up, someone always retorts "conspiracy theory!" It's the way Trump yelled "fake news!" at anything he didn't like. https://t.co/xJcPP0i5XO 2021-07-15 17:01:14 Yeah, there's certainly more. And again, this is about a mere thirteen cases reported to the WHO with some detail (though not even that detailed!) that have multiple "unintended errors" and discrepancies. And this is getting covered only on July of 2021. https://t.co/DogMCfYm4t 2021-07-15 16:53:22 As I said, I don't like probability calculations when there's so little *real* evidence to "calculate" anything with, and so many unresolved questions. But people have leanings and priors. Fine. But it doesn't touch this question: how could the reporting be so minimal? Baffling. 2021-07-15 16:50:06 @emilyrauhala Yep. The number of discrepancies, contradictions and weird reporting around so few cases that just haven't followed up by journalists at all for months has been baffling! They are right there! Not some subtle stuff. (And thank you for reporting on it! So much low-hanging fruit). 2021-07-15 16:47:30 @Eyeoftg Aren't you the genocide-denying account? Yep. Anyway, bye. 2021-07-15 16:45:38 (Also many of these contradictions were evident the moment the WHO report was published: March 2020. We *only* got *some* information on a few dozen early cases! Sit down with a spreadsheet for an hour and it's a lot of "huh"? July 2021, and finally getting some reporting on it.) 2021-07-15 16:34:20 For clarity, even after these corrections, there are still contradictions around early cases compared with other papers by Chinese scientists. The WHO report had some data on *just* thirteen early cases, and even that had multiple "unintended errors". https://t.co/lWZ1GReswb 2021-07-15 13:14:33 If people want to say we're not going to get an investigation—at least with China's cooperation—because of this cover-up, fine. One can still learn lessons. But the idea we're evaluating some actual substantial body of "evidence" from an actual investigation just doesn't hold up. 2021-07-15 13:09:41 We know the early cases, as reported to us, were missing, incomplete and withheld. We know there are contradictions between earlier papers from Chinese scientists and what later got told to WHO. We know there are missing sequences and papers, even among what little got released. 2021-07-15 13:06:23 So glad some journalists are actually following these things up! As far as I can tell, these are only some of the unexplained contradictions/puzzles in the early China cases—to the degree we were told anything. Note these "unintended errors" happened despite minimal data shared. https://t.co/lyBwA8NKCt 2021-07-14 18:43:26 @Muller_Lab MedRxiv does not delete "withdrawn" papers. See paper below. Has first detected case as December 7, 2019. Clearly has a lot detailed data that has not been shared, and as far as I can tell, paper has not been "re-submitted" as promised. Was a good paper! https://t.co/X9RSnkiM4w 2021-07-14 18:09:24 @Muller_Lab (Let alone the fact that the published data is minimal, and very little of the kind of information about early cases that would be standard in an actual origins investigation have been shared.... Baffling lack of curiosity has characterized this whole topic for a year+ now). 2021-07-14 18:07:19 @Muller_Lab I don't understand how everyone seems to be ignoring this. (Or, if not, where are the articles about it?). Even the *published* data about the early cases (which we know is incomplete) is inconsistent and contradictory between the papers and WHO report—and lots of weird twists. 2021-07-14 17:46:47 A haunting, must-read. "Since 2017, Uyghur children have been sent to mandatory boarding schools, where they are punished for speaking their native language." (While an unknown number of adults and parents are forced into "study" camps—mass incarceration). https://t.co/yP7BGOYhcr 2021-07-14 17:40:19 “The most senior leadership in the company does not want to invest in understanding the impact of its core products,” Boland said, in his first interview since departing. “And it doesn’t want to make the data available for others to do the hard work and hold them accountable.” https://t.co/pvzpGYKOt5 2021-07-14 14:37:11 @zabouti Not the least. It's a very common name in Turkey with this spelling, and very common in a region from North Africa to Central and South Asia with other spellings. (My car is a Honda Civic that's now.. 21! Does not look like that. :-D) 2021-07-14 00:40:34 RT @JustinWolfers: theory, macro, finance, labor 2021-07-14 00:36:21 RT @pwnallthethings: This is good advice for everyone, not just for executive agencies. https://t.co/2HDqRdI0LA 2021-07-13 14:27:10 @yennikwok @wanderer_jasnah I’m sorry. 2021-07-13 01:19:57 @morgangames @katypearce @alexismadrigal @ubiquity75 @TarletonG I'm glad the book is useful. :-D There is a legal creative commons copy available! Link at the bottom. No need to worry about VPNs or scans etc. https://t.co/7GlSlpt7LF 2021-07-12 22:51:24 RT @Nrg8000: When reading this article it's worth remembering that in Xinjiang, receiving money from relatives overseas is considered terro… 2021-07-12 14:12:23 @alexstamos @noUpside @conspirator0 @ZellaQuixote @rinkisethi All Turkish names. 2021-07-12 12:59:38 RT @edyong209: Superb thread on masks, but also the culture and philosophy of evidence assessment 2021-07-12 02:44:58 RT @BrentNYT: The Black men and women who ran fiercely anti-racist newspapers are the unsung heroes of American history. My @nytopinion ess… 2021-07-12 01:58:51 @twitskeptic @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan @fallenigloos Aviation safety makes you think of TSA, not the NTSB? Wow. I guess I can take that as a vivid example of why it's hard to have this conversation with people not familiar with the specifics of safety cultures, or actual history. 2021-07-12 01:40:50 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan @twitskeptic @fallenigloos No field likes being investigated and potentially facing more regulations and oversight, especially in a context like this, and that's such a basic sociological fact with so many historical examples that it's incredible that one has to keep explaining this again and again. 2021-07-12 01:38:58 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan @twitskeptic @fallenigloos Every complex system—like aviation—that has managed to become safer has done so because they didn't listen to such dismissive and counterproductive attitudes about investigating causes and mechanisms, and forged ahead with better understanding that led to safer systems. 2021-07-11 23:00:23 @BordeauxBlues But 6000 matches! So impressed. 2021-07-11 22:46:22 “probability model using 6,000 matches” (Another example for that inappropriate methods syllabus). https://t.co/VHmOBJdwLM 2021-07-11 22:02:54 @mbeisen And such young ones. 2021-07-11 21:57:16 @AlecJRoss MVP, no doubt, if they have that. 2021-07-11 16:39:57 @AbraarKaran Yeah seeing many reports of pretty high secondary attack rates with Delta. Would be consistent with what we know, but maybe those are the ones getting investigated. 2021-07-11 14:13:37 @pashulman @asociologist That sounds like a class everybody should take! 2021-07-11 14:07:05 @owasow @asociologist @pashulman Yeah. There are so many of these things for which a sociological documentary would be so useful. 2021-07-11 13:46:20 @asociologist Yes, most of them don't know about it. It's a huge issue because we've seen similar media policy failures/groupthink/herding etc. this pandemic as well, and that era is one of the better conceptual analogies to explain how it works (plus social media intensification). 2021-07-11 12:59:17 @DFisman My goodness. 2021-07-11 12:58:54 @stewak2 @InfectiousDz Can’t scale even with R3 after the first month or so. I think South Korea in early 2020 is the ceiling example of how far it can go once things get going. (And they used digital surveillance, not just this). 2021-07-10 23:44:09 @KarlParkinson7 2021-07-10 21:52:51 @wgyn_ Infrastructure is always epic. 2021-07-10 21:46:27 @fallenigloos @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan Ralph Baric, perhaps the world’s top bat coronavirologist, says you can’t rule out engineering based on the genome alone and says need lab records. “Consistent with” thus includes almost all scenarios. I can’t believe the confidence people have in their hand-waving assertions. 2021-07-10 18:13:06 @cagrimbakirci @lab_leak @esesci @Ayjchan Working hypothesis should be there is an extensive and sustained cover-up, and people should refrain from making broad statistical claims in such a situation. Generalities aren’t illuminating. 2021-07-10 18:04:57 @cagrimbakirci @esesci @Ayjchan If you spend more than five minutes looking into it, it’s clearly much more than business as usual. There are specific issues, questions and much more. China covers a lot of things up is true but not meaningful to make statistics. 2021-07-10 17:50:58 @esesci @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan At a minimum I’d encourage people to take the epidemiological data published by Chinese scientists in January/February of 2020, try to match it to what’s been told to WHO a year later, notice how much is withheld and contradictory before confidently claiming what’s “more likely”. 2021-07-10 17:43:14 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan She didn’t even say it was more probable. You’re the only one making statistical claims on what’s more likely. The slightest deep dive into the state of the evidence, and how much has been covered up, would encourage more humility. 2021-07-10 17:41:54 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan You can’t make such a calculation based on what we little know. There’s been no real independent investigation. Databases are missing, most basic requests have been rebuffed and the official claims are contradictory. Makes no sense to be doing “statistics”. 2021-07-10 17:39:36 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan You could just as well say that a sustained an extensive cover up puts the real burden of proof on anyone making such a claim. Even the few early cases—such as they’ve even been shared, which is incomplete—are inconsistent and puzzling. Less confidence would be appropriate. 2021-07-10 17:35:01 @cagrimbakirci @Ayjchan How are you making that calculation? Just baffles me that people confidently make such claims based on little verifiable evidence—even most basic early outbreak data has been withheld, censored and/or is inconsistent and contradictory. We don’t know much is an honest answer. 2021-07-10 03:15:42 @bad_garrett Ooh that seems worse 2021-07-10 03:15:11 @coreymutter Eeek! 2021-07-10 02:51:58 @seessshelly Eeek 2021-07-10 02:50:32 Yes, yes, it does—in tiny font in barely visible colors! That’s my point. https://t.co/bpwsgWlexd 2021-07-10 02:44:29 Yep. Fell for it again. I’d like a universal sign for THIS DRINK IS CAFFEINATED in a bold color, please. https://t.co/bvuko49dTx 2021-07-09 19:06:42 @adamgurri How can I not enjoy it all? It's great. 2021-07-09 19:05:34 @ErikaMcentarfer @kareem_carr https://t.co/emsfKOLSfd 2021-07-09 18:40:13 @adamgurri Thank you! It's amazing, though. 2021-07-09 16:56:19 @vhranger @kareem_carr See what I mean! Let's chat after we review your document on how regression assumptions map onto analysis of reflexive and social creatures in systems full of coupling (no independence) and feedback loops for which we don't have a good working model at any level! 2021-07-09 16:47:55 @kareem_carr {Field∈Social Sciences | Field≠Economics} : Economics (I don't make the rules! Just observing.) 2021-07-09 13:56:16 @CarlosdelRio7 @ScienceMagazine Hopefully a study like this soon for Delta as well. 2021-07-09 13:14:50 @icureiosity @ibrake4ants Yep, you must be satire. It's a whole article exactly about how socioeconomic disadvantaged structures who suffers. One of the most spectacular examples of willful misreading I've encountered lately, and there are a lot of competitors. 2021-07-09 12:52:15 @icureiosity @mugecevik @BradRubenstein @sdbaral What on earth are you talking about? It’s an actual article and talks exactly about that. I genuinely can’t tell if this is satire or trolling. 2021-07-09 12:27:18 Obviously means non-modifiable by the individual. As in “just stay home” type messaging. https://t.co/FcX0dye2gs 2021-07-09 12:25:59 @paul_dimaggio Huh 2021-07-09 12:13:08 @paul_dimaggio On what platform? The ad? 2021-07-09 12:06:02 “In reality, risk factors concentrate among the relatively few who have disproportionately higher exposure and onward transmission risks.” “Most high-risk exposures represent nonmodifiable risks due to living and working conditions.” Good stuff from @mugecevik & 2021-07-08 15:23:05 RT @wanderer_jasnah: vaccines: they continue to work. even in an extremely high-risk environment, & 2021-07-08 14:47:43 @ashishkjha @profshanecrotty @US_FDA What’s the holdup? Baffling to me. 2021-07-08 13:51:32 RT @mbrookerhk: Here is what Beijing and the HK govt call “improving” the electoral system - cancelling the results of a landslide election… 2021-07-08 13:33:03 @joshua_eaton @NYMag Acting like there’s been a real investigation when there are multiple contradictions and lies on the record, little to no access or independent verification for almost any important claim is not going to age well. Truth is we don’t have most of the picture because of the coverup. 2021-07-08 13:30:18 @joshua_eaton @NYMag The part that gets me is how basic stuff keeps getting ignored. The limited evidence we’ve been provided about the early cases and the outbreak is incomplete, full of contradictions and coverups—it’s on the record now. Not complicated. Still ignored in much coverage/discussion. 2021-07-08 13:26:11 RT @joshua_eaton: This, by @zeynep, is very good. I have to confess that I was overly dismissive of the lab-leak theory for a long time (… 2021-07-08 02:47:35 RT @kniggem: After a later start and troubled rollout, Germany has now passed the U.S. for the percentage of people who have received… 2021-05-22 15:33:41 @EricTopol Yeay! Plus that’s just against symptomatic disease. Near complete protection against severe disease wouldn’t be surprising with this level of VE against any symptom whatsoever. The vaccines have turned out stronger than anything people were hoping for last year. 2021-05-22 13:58:26 On the news that the ransomware actors behind the Colonial Pipeline shutdown had received $90 million from 47 victims in Bitcoin before shutting down: As I say it in my article, a lot of realities about Bitcoin etc. are not well-understood because it's been let be. May not last. https://t.co/qSk4pOEaf9 2021-05-21 22:29:16 RT @paul_dimaggio: Sounds like a disaster in the making. Government agencies worry so obsessively about privacy that they risk making data… 2021-05-21 22:29:09 @awgaffney “Solving” problems that don’t seem to exist by destroying usefulness of the project. 2021-05-21 22:28:12 RT @bencasselman: As a frequent user of the ACS microdata, this is very concerning. Hard to see how we could base stories off “synthetic” d… 2021-05-21 19:16:34 Let me emphasize. This was not a precise number provided in a precise manner. For all I can tell from how it went down, he might’ve meant his estimate for minimum efficacy. Regardless, he immediately said don’t really know yet, and we’ll know better in a few weeks. No news here. https://t.co/EYmGKgIzZ4 2021-05-21 19:11:24 @gstvbjrnstrnd @mugecevik He was pressed by the minister, clearly spoke off-the-cuff, and made it clear he didn’t have a precise number. There never should’ve been a news article in my opinion. Let alone the “up to” insertion, however it happened. We will get numbers and then we can talk about them. 2021-05-21 19:01:19 @DrEricDing https://t.co/4kWVXYJ6D2 2021-05-21 18:35:14 @BallouxFrancois @mugecevik @RufusSG He was being pressed by the minister and made it clear he wasn’t yet in a position to provide a precise estimate. Also I wish the difference between symptomatic breakthroughs after vaccination and cases in immunologically naive people were explained more clearly, in general. 2021-05-21 17:10:26 @alchemytoday The minister pressed him and he clearly said at the end they don’t really know yet, etc. 2021-05-21 17:02:58 @johnemcginty It’s a wild coincidence that BioNTech CEO is an immigrant from Turkey, lol. 2021-05-21 16:59:19 Also note that even a slightly reduced efficacy in a vaccine’s ability to prevent mild symptoms does not imply an inability to prevent severe illness or death, and 75% efficacy for any symptoms whatsoever is way higher than anything many had realistically hoped for last year. 2021-05-21 16:42:41 I just watched this interview in Turkish and it has been mistranslated. Dr. Sahin says they do expect 70-75% protection against symptomatic illness for B.1.617.2 variant, but he does NOT say "up to". He says it's not a hard number as they're still testing and will know more soon. https://t.co/Di1521jATk 2021-05-21 16:17:08 @juanludlow You are wrong and contradicting the aerosol scientists who were saying the exact opposite from the beginning. Eyes may be a marginal threat, sure but the surface area of your lungs is so much larger that you cannot really compare. 2021-05-21 16:15:27 @nikkicolumbus I have not seen that from there, but here's a recent review by @mugecevik @AaronRichterman @EricMeyerowitz. https://t.co/2NKLkUCPOJ 2021-05-21 16:01:34 Yep. The opposite. As far as I've been able to track: Not a single death or even a severe case among the vaccinated either by Sinopharm or Astrazenecca (used about equally, with AZ for over 60) in Seychelles (according to their health minister). Look for details, not just charts. https://t.co/7282UvpjGp 2021-05-21 15:39:50 Here's another one. https://t.co/VmIWnoUEqY 2021-05-21 15:38:45 It's hard to disentangle precise effect sizes with such studies—they can't be experiments. Still, when multiple studies show improvements associated with teacher/staff masks and/or ventilation, but none or even worsening with desk barriers AND aerosol scientists explaining why... 2021-05-21 15:33:26 And once again, unlike the benefits associated with mitigations based on aerosol dominance, masks and ventilation, the two *costly* mitigations in schools based on theories of droplet prominence, barriers and desk-spacing, were not associated with a real reduction of COVID risk. https://t.co/S1urRPzzMf 2021-05-21 15:24:00 @jmcconnell53 @zsitter Not you! I was more pointing out that people can figure out that this type appointment had happened before and the whole point of the endowed chair was to bring such people to tenured positions. Saw a lot of people missing that basic point today. 2021-05-21 15:21:49 "Adjusting for county-level incidence, COVID-19 incidence was 37% lower in schools that required teachers and staff members to use masks, and 39% lower in schools that improved ventilation, compared with schools that did not use these prevention strategies." https://t.co/JovCLjKeFj 2021-05-21 15:04:16 @elipariser @EricKlinenberg @nytimes lol 2021-05-21 15:02:20 @statesdj Yeah. People want to litigate whether this particular person deserved this and then invent standards to justify their stance. The whole point of all this is to have faculty at schools and external reviewers make these decisions and inevitably, some people will have detractors. 2021-05-21 15:00:07 @zsitter @jmcconnell53 The ability to read the highlighted portion of the 2012 article I linked above may help answer that question. 2021-05-21 14:54:37 @EdKPyros https://t.co/VrZwhYsFRb 2021-05-21 14:54:18 @AmorFat80903142 https://t.co/VrZwhYsFRb 2021-05-21 14:52:59 And all of you now litigating her credentials and viewpoints in my mentions: *you* are the strongest argument for why UNC Hussman faculty may have thought this needed to be a tenured position. If tenure only protected the people who had no detractors, there'd be no reason for it. 2021-05-21 14:50:57 If you are still wondering, imagine that, just like in 2012, UNC Hussman had now hired another advertising executive with no academic background or PhD as a professor to a Knight Chair in Journalism position. You wouldn't hear about it. 2021-05-21 14:46:30 Is tenure the perfect system? Fine, have the broad discussion. I'm not sure I could do what I do in the world without it but, as an academic, I obviously know all the downsides people bring up. Should non-academics *ever* be tenured? Again, fine, as long as applied the same way. 2021-05-21 14:41:56 Did anyone have a campaign demanding that UNC not hire an advertising executive as a Knight professor because she didn't have an academic background? People outside of academia getting tenured, especially at professional schools, does happen and isn't against any rules or norms. 2021-05-21 14:38:06 The point of academic freedom isn't for universities to hire and tenure people others like. It's based on faculty evaluation and external reviews. Once political appointees start meddling—at the last minute—based on viewpoints and external campaigns, you get the chilling effect. 2021-05-21 14:31:18 People want to argue whether she deserved tenure. That's not how it works. The faculty at the school previously believed an ad executive brought value to their students and hired her as a Knight professor, a position endowed exactly to bring industry people to tenured positions. 2021-05-21 14:27:44 Let me point people to the 2012 appointment of a Knight Chair in journalism (same title) at UNC Hussman (same school) of a person who was an advertising executive (completely outside of academia and I believe similarly had only a masters degree). https://t.co/0MxrdBFah7 https://t.co/XpsnfoNedv https://t.co/QY9Nt2rpe1 2021-05-21 04:29:25 “Ventilation is a community defense that protects all of us at home or at work” https://t.co/vIg17wArcY 2021-05-21 02:14:44 RT @KBibbinsDomingo: Severe Covid Is More Often Fatal in Africa Than in Other Regions https://t.co/aLVamVmAEJ 2021-05-20 22:51:55 RT @coach_andy: Every individual vaccination reduces the overall novelty, reduces the likelihood of future outbreaks. 2021-05-20 17:04:49 @nickconfessore @NAChristakis Knight chairs were endowed exactly to recruit people in journalism and media into tenured positions. Here's the previous one in her school. (I can't remember the last time the trustees had chucked the process that had been completed at the academic level). https://t.co/0MxrdBFah7 2021-05-20 16:55:51 @KyleLeary9 @NateLeo15 @sullydish Yes, tenured recruitment is common, through the same process. Also research universities do this routinely. Plus, the last two people to hold the very same chair as her were tenured. There was nothing unusual about this, till the last minute. See last one: https://t.co/0MxrdBFah7 2021-05-20 16:40:06 @KyleLeary9 @NateLeo15 @sullydish That's not how it works for anyone else, and what you think she needs or the rest of it isn't relevant. 2021-05-20 16:32:36 @JoekillianPW @johnrobinson @sullydish Yes, it was the trustees. They are political appointees, outside the university academic process which was completed at every level. (Not even getting into the heavily gerrymandered process that led to that particular GA that made the appointments etc.) 2021-05-20 16:16:55 @sullydish People are arguing if she deserved tenure, or whether tenure is good. None of that is relevant to this case. The process that counts for everyone else was stepped on by political appointees—and hard to imagine it was for any reason besides the content or her work and who she is. 2021-05-20 16:14:09 @sullydish That general principle is what makes it a scandal. The evaluation was completed by her faculty peers, external reviewers, the dean etc. It's a prescribed, lengthy and involved process. It's all been chucked by political appointees—a move without precedent as far as I can recall. 2021-05-20 13:00:21 @rfsquared @Hold2LLC @j_g_allen Now if the claim is that hospitals all ignored these instructions, or that the numbers/analyses all ignored this etc? That's the kind of thing that can be studied and demonstrated. I don't doubt tons of researchers would be happy to do this, and we'd all read an actual paper. 2021-05-20 12:58:29 @rfsquared @Hold2LLC @j_g_allen You defined it too narrowly, otherwise high-risk patients with dyspnea fever etc. have been admitted. I'm not a hospital coding expert, but there is clearly instructions/methods on how to distinguish primary diagnoses from incidental positives. 2021-05-20 12:44:57 @rfsquared @Hold2LLC @j_g_allen Hospital codes are messy but can be sorted through. (Your list would limit to severe/advanced cases, there's dyspnea, fever etc.) Plus the guideline, of course, has ways to distinguish primary diagnoses. (I'm not asserting anything about the practice). https://t.co/p9mvQzEZIb 2021-05-20 12:39:55 @rfsquared @Hold2LLC @j_g_allen Copy of response to Berenson because he, as usual, misrepresented so it's here: "Adults are a much larger and diverse category compared to children. That’s how they’re different—harder to sort through due to sheer size if nothing else." 2021-05-20 12:33:29 @AlexBerenson As usual, Alex misinforms. Adults are a much larger and diverse category compared to children. That’s how they’re different—harder to sort through due to sheer size if nothing else. Last time you quoted me wasn’t it to pretend an aerosol scientist had just not said what he said? 2021-05-20 02:32:07 @jsbalek @jeremybowers Hahha 2021-05-20 02:05:56 RT @jeremybowers: COOL JOB ALERT The Washington Post is hiring a TAXONOMIST. Come work with my teams to build out and manage a robust inf… 2021-05-20 01:38:50 @sullydish The faculty *had* decided. The University had also decided. It got overruled at the university system level, which, as far as I remember, does not have a recent precedent. This is more like the Queen of England deciding she doesn’t like a local election result and overturning it. 2021-05-20 01:34:39 @mlipsitch @EricTopol Yeah the story may well be that we had been — largely — ignoring post viral sequelae as the issue it always was, but now we have the added complication of large number of immunologically-naive adults being hit because the virus is novel. 2021-05-20 01:10:44 Update: @chrislhayes posed the request for clarification to the public in my NYT oped to Dr. Fauci and he said yes, that is true. (FWIW, I've no problem with that message or conclusion 2021-05-20 00:47:46 RT @NektariaAna: Istanbul Greek Idiom #9: Σικτίρ πιλάφι/siktirpilafi (f%@#-off pilav) is the last treat that you serve when you are tired o… 2021-05-19 22:33:13 @Hold2LLC @j_g_allen Hospitalized kids are a very small group and I’d have expected more precision. (No, it’s not the same in adults.) 2021-05-19 20:29:47 @j_g_allen So at once, even less severe consequences in children than assumed from already the “very rare” baseline, but likely more asymptotic but just enough for PCR positive tests from exposure? Will read the papers. 2021-05-19 20:23:11 @j_g_allen Eek 2021-05-19 19:46:58 @BhadeliaMD @BUCEID Congratulations! 2021-05-19 18:30:54 RT @BogochIsaac: Excellent news - it looks like Ontario will open up outdoor amenities ahead of schedule, as per the report below. #COVID1… 2021-05-19 17:34:44 @_stah (I didn't really compare to SARS-CoV-2 to measles 2021-05-19 17:32:09 @_stah Yes, they don't estimate anything like measles, but it is still overdispersed ("20% responsible for about 50% transmission"). But a lot of variability in the individual studies (though necessarily historically limited). Hints also pandemic flu has different k than seasonal flu. 2021-05-19 17:23:13 @AaronRichterman Yeah. I’ll read your paper. But one question that will come up a lot is how vaccine efficacy for symptomatic disease relates to transmission dynamics. I think we will have a clearer answer for the ones approved in the US or Europe/UK. Just more data. Not sure yet about others. 2021-05-19 17:18:52 RT @AaronRichterman: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines substantially reduce transmission through 2 mechanisms: (1) chance of infection (regardless of… 2021-05-19 17:18:05 @AaronRichterman Ah excellent! Thank you all! I think the epidemiological dynamics do hint at higher numbers. Fingers crossed. I guess we will know better in late Fall when seasonality may reverse but it’s been quite promising and I already had thought the trial numbers were super encouraging. 2021-05-19 17:13:00 @product_blinch I always hear from the aerosol scientists that opening windows even just a few inches when possible can be fairly effective. HEPA filters are good too (no other gimmicks needed). Then good masks. 2021-05-19 17:08:49 @_stah https://t.co/orpq6S0z4m is one. (One interesting bit is the difference between aggregate R0 calculations from large populations and those from smaller settings like military camps or ships, where you get a lot of variability and some much higher estimates). 2021-05-19 16:57:37 Most interesting to work on for me was this piece in the Lancet which put together a causal framework to argue that airborne transmission may well be dominant for COVID-19. Of course, there will be a lot more work on discussion on a topic like this. https://t.co/xPnnWfo75E https://t.co/uhSHNSwV2R 2021-05-19 16:54:56 And the recent piece in the New York Times putting it more in historical context. https://t.co/aV86fGr3JZ 2021-05-19 16:54:12 I first wrote about the importance of ventilation specifically last July out of frustration that it wasn't more on our agenda. https://t.co/a3xEkjRBoV 2021-05-19 16:49:05 Many of them are too polite and are focused on progress, which is correct and noble. But I've witnessed some of this and have researched rest, and the way a lot of scientists with expertise on airborne transmission and aerosols were treated was atrocious. Hope we learn from this. 2021-05-19 16:45:09 This is a great story in Wired on how aerosol experts couldn't even get the scientific establishment to correct a basic error in the physics of what size particle floats in the air. (It's still incorrect but at least I think more people know this now). https://t.co/C5pLSUvzCP https://t.co/ULWiaU5QDY 2021-05-19 16:36:19 Recent letter in Science addressing this: we no longer accept unsafe food or water but have barely budged on indoor air standards for pathogens. (And the resistance and ridicule aerosol scientists endured for the past year made one key obstacle visible). https://t.co/h4C38metCM https://t.co/Wj7kHyItwg 2021-05-19 16:23:36 There may be a re-examination of other respiratory pathogens now that there's been progress on a better understanding airborne transmission. (1918 pandemic influenza was also overdispersed and we know flu can be airborne plus it's sensitive to ventilation as a mitigation... ) https://t.co/bG8tMV6Ybk 2021-05-19 16:08:18 @seth_parker @insight @dylanhmorris Because the article explains it. 2021-05-19 16:07:55 @DemFromCT It's almost like we're social creatures that live in societies with social organizations and institutions! 2021-05-19 15:08:07 RT @BaileyJ58227754: Deb Aikat, an associate professor at UNC’s Hussman school, said this episode sets a terrible precedent. “In academia,… 2021-05-19 14:05:46 RT @linseymarr: Stop wasting money on plexiglass! It does not help in this type of setting and may actually be harmful because it impedes p… 2021-05-19 13:50:39 @HollandoF heh 2021-05-19 13:45:16 @macroliter @dylanhmorris @RubeHeretic @vscooper Yeah, I chatted with Dylan about this—there may be ways to probe some of this, empirically including for long-term sequelae by looking at introductions/clusters. 2021-05-19 13:19:21 Lovely profile of @ashishkjha who has shown real leadership during the pandemic. (He is also extraordinarily kind while remaining active on social media as well has keeping this kind of national profile—true role model). https://t.co/Km0jicYB8B 2021-05-19 02:46:17 @EIDGeek @gpurcell @EricTopol Yeah 2021-05-19 02:19:48 RT @Bob_Wachter: Great @statnews piece on @ashishkjha, who has spent 2020-21 tirelessly educating the public on Covid, & 2021-05-19 02:16:52 @gpurcell @EricTopol EXACTLY! Close call tbh 2021-05-19 01:33:43 @michaelmina_lab @EricTopol I’ll try to work on one expressing my enthusiasm for exponential decay... 2021-05-19 01:23:33 @michaelmina_lab @EricTopol My artistic talents may not be that great but... I know what I don’t like. https://t.co/E9GCokOuam 2021-05-19 01:05:10 @EricTopol https://t.co/lgqKH6kMvA 2021-05-19 00:57:30 RT @malar0ne: "If you want to stay out of the hospital, giving your immune system a preview of the virus is valuable, even if that preview… 2021-05-18 21:49:15 RT @vscooper: "Nothing in this pandemic makes sense except in the light of novelty." Brilliant essay by @dylanhmorris p/b @zeynep https://t… 2021-05-18 21:44:24 @vscooper @dylanhmorris Thank you! I agree it’s a great one. 2021-05-18 21:24:17 @EmmaGuerisoli @dylanhmorris 2021-05-18 20:49:11 RT @SumitaPahwa: Very informative piece on immune response to viruses and what that means for Covid variants, and for kids. https://t.co/O… 2021-05-18 18:53:49 @WesPegden @stewak2 @contrarian4data No, the point is about the total number of children that might suffer severe consequences, globally, not about the population fraction in one place. (And it's orthogonal to reasonable & 2021-05-18 18:51:14 @zchagla @BillHanage @dylanhmorris I think better surveillance of breakthroughs will both be informative (in case a bad surprise is brewing and we need to booster up) and help reassure the public that we are on top of it. The latter is not a secondary goal while we try to move out of the acute phase of all this. 2021-05-18 18:50:02 @zchagla @BillHanage I finally got @dylanhmorris to write this piece for my newsletter. Essentially, there really isn't a lot of understanding out there on what a vaccine breakthrough means and does not mean, and why, for example, variants don't set us back to March 2020. https://t.co/vRBO0bpC3f 2021-05-18 18:46:51 @halftroll Thank you! I also really like the piece (that I did NOT write). 2021-05-18 18:46:05 @MF0000001 @insight @dylanhmorris User name checks out. 2021-05-18 18:45:40 @zchagla @BillHanage It is of academic interest *and* to curb the unnecessary freak-outs. I am ready to pre-file my piece on "no, that vaccine breakthrough cluster at University X that tests all students weekly is not a cause for concern" article for Fall of 2021. I'd rather not write it, tbh. 2021-05-18 18:31:47 @BillHanage Wait, what? That's, well, the "perfect" set up for nonstop freak-outs over breakthroughs that do not deserve panic (positive uncovered during mandatory/frequent testing in colleges/teams etc.) but also waiting till too late to recognize antigenic evolution of consequence? 2021-05-18 18:16:42 RT @insight: Guest @Insight essay on why novelty means severity, and why so many questions about variants, children, Long Covid, endemicity… 2021-05-18 17:23:58 I've seen a lot of worries about vaccine breakthrough cases, like the Yankees' outbreak (I wrote about that a few days ago: https://t.co/VduDBqPouW) or the Seychelles numbers. The essay by @dylanhmorris is excellent for putting science and intuition to work for thinking about it. 2021-05-18 17:20:45 Also the interaction between novelty, severity and our immune system means that a vaccine breakthrough case is NOT the same thing as a case in someone never infected or vaccinated, but we still need herd immunity for the immunocompromised and the elderly. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI https://t.co/hBF8WXsvpV 2021-05-18 17:14:54 @stewak2 Thank you! 2021-05-18 16:41:59 RT @robblackie_oo: This is a fantastic round up of how the immune system works - and why novel viruses are so dangerous. 2021-05-18 16:25:22 @BrandiAtkinson @magi_jay @dylanhmorris In fairness, many were just saying what was conventional wisdom at the time, including from many experts and public authorities. See, for example: https://t.co/ag21Fcjnvg 2021-05-18 16:18:06 @robblackie_oo Thank you! 2021-05-18 16:17:29 @magi_jay @dylanhmorris Yeah. I tried back when. And got lectured a lot about needlessly panicking, and about flu, too.One of the reasons I got into pandemic writing in the first place was trying to explain some of this. https://t.co/LsQcs2sTQy 2021-05-18 15:57:40 RT @dylanhmorris: Grateful to @zeynep for inviting me to contribute this post. Wrote about why novel viruses can be severe and how we can m… 2021-05-18 15:50:20 @LawProfMorales Thank you! 2021-05-18 15:23:22 RT @marick: Novelty Means Severity: The Key To the Pandemic, by @zeynep https://t.co/tm4e2b5YOE This, by @dylanhmorris, was interesting.… 2021-05-18 14:36:11 Once we center *novelty* into our analytic framework for this pandemic, as @dylanhmorris does in this essay, so many things fall into place, including why some of our intuitions from other diseases can be misleading and why some of our worries aren't as big a deal as portrayed. 2021-05-18 14:19:58 @lsaldanamd Thank you. But it's by @dylanhmorris! (Guest essay). 2021-05-18 14:10:08 RT @LeahLibresco: From his excellent guest essay in @zeynep's newsletter on why the novelty of covid matters, and how our intuitions about… 2021-05-18 14:03:53 Today's @insight is a brilliant guest essay by @dylanhmorris explaining why novelty of this pathogen is so deeply related to everything we've been wondering about: variants, vaccine breakthrough cases, children, Long Covid, endemicity and more. https://t.co/UXWhg6X0mI https://t.co/mMuVVAwd4Q 2021-05-18 05:15:51 @shamir_k @pitdesi @Noahpinion That’s why I said sensible measure. They don’t report a single severe case among the vaccinated, let alone a death. If that’s a concern to you, I leave you to it, I guess. 2021-05-18 05:03:27 @pitdesi @shamir_k @Noahpinion It is not having the world’s worst outbreak by any sensible measure. I have not seen any sequencing data from Seychelles so I don’t see where the variant discussions coming in either. 2021-05-18 04:03:30 @MatthewAdsit Thank you! 2021-05-18 01:59:42 @TonyBurnetti @alchemytoday @shamir_k @Noahpinion Yeah, among the possibilities no? Seychelles fits that scenario, and it's not the worst outcome if that's the case since it would also maybe hold up better against variants (epitopes and all). 2021-05-18 01:53:07 @alchemytoday @shamir_k @Noahpinion Yeah, I have no idea where he's getting the numbers. Theoretically speaking, an inactivated virus vaccine would have an advantage against variants compared to a spike only one like the mRNA ones. But who knows, till we see some actual data? 2021-05-18 01:48:00 @Noahpinion Small country can easily put under observation people with mild breakthrough cases. So far, every piece of actual detail we have had is reassuring and good news especially given lack of clear trial data. I guess if we actually get bad news, we can worry. Not seeing it yet. 2021-05-18 01:45:17 @Noahpinion Again, the details matter. The Health Minister of Seychelles is saying the vaccinated 20% have had no serious complications. In the trials “severe” was defined as 93% SpO2. Nothingburger, clinically. Why are they in the hospital? I’d like to know, but sounds like precautionary. 2021-05-18 01:27:00 @shamir_k @Noahpinion More mRNA vaccines for the world would be great, but the fact that all the vaccines, including the ones with unclear trials, are holding up very well including against the variants where it matters (as far as we can tell: some have not yet been tested the way it counts) is good. 2021-05-18 01:23:58 @Noahpinion "We just got data, though, in Seychelles. We now have real-life data and it looks solid where it counts: severity and death. I'm relieved. "Less effective" is not a precise term here: just testing positive is largely irrelevant, symptomatic relevant but still not a huge deal. 2021-05-18 01:11:35 @Noahpinion What exactly is the concern? 2021-05-18 01:10:27 @JapanBiking @Noahpinion Yeah, it sucks for the billion+ people in India. I can't even bring myself to do the back-of-the envelope calculations, especially since so much is already baked in. 2021-05-18 01:08:13 @Craig_A_Spencer Nice! 2021-05-18 01:07:10 @arindube @Noahpinion It's not a surge in either the way India has a surge, though. The term is imprecise in this context. 2021-05-18 01:01:08 @kar_nels @Noahpinion No, that’s not the issue here imo. (Though yes, some vaccines have higher efficacy for symptomatic disease). I’ll try to get around writing the details. 2021-05-18 00:58:46 @Noahpinion Bahrain and Seychelles tell us that Sinopharm has lower efficacy for symptomatic disease but seems to be completely holding up for severity and death, so far. Very good news. India may well suffer the highest deaths, maybe both in absolute and relative terms. Can’t compare imo. 2021-05-18 00:55:54 @Noahpinion You’re again comparing a tiny country with extensive testing capacity and vaccination, with a one billion+ person country with 45% test positivity in some states and a mostly unvaccinated population. Even what a “confirmed case” means in Bahrain is not the same thing as India. 2021-05-18 00:52:56 @kar_nels @Noahpinion Clearly it has more breakthroughs. Would prefer not to have any but... I personally wouldn’t care that much if it were me. A breakthrough positive is not the same thing as a case in an unvaccinated/nonimmune person. I *will* worry if we actually start seeing severity/deaths. 2021-05-18 00:49:42 @CentristMadness @Noahpinion Sinopharm, not Sinovac. And only a bit more than half, not the “whole fucking country.” And even with lower efficacy, it seems to overwhelmingly, if not completely, effective in preventing severe cases and deaths. Not “hedging”, just pointing out the details. 2021-05-18 00:41:16 @arindube @Noahpinion Not shoving them under the rug. The actual details matter very much when interpreting what the differences mean. More positive cases, obviously. That’s not the big deal it appears to be, at least yet, once you drill down into it. Sure, let’s keep watching. 2021-05-18 00:37:54 @Noahpinion The 20% vaccinated breakthroughs are “not serious” according to the health minister. People can be in the hospital for precautionary reasons especially when you have such a small population. “No complications” is how he described it. Monitoring is fine but looks very good to me. 2021-05-18 00:25:24 @Noahpinion I wouldn’t compare. One is a tiny 300k person country 2021-05-17 22:22:10 @wanderer_jasnah @K_krazy_xoxo https://t.co/0uRoT67Ewv 2021-05-17 22:21:33 @wanderer_jasnah @K_krazy_xoxo Masks in my previous life https://t.co/HC1x8Z5yk2 2021-05-17 22:17:47 @wanderer_jasnah @K_krazy_xoxo https://t.co/YF4fADA2Mu 2021-05-17 21:38:27 @wanderer_jasnah @K_krazy_xoxo Also I was actually still there when they did the face mask then started arresting people. One of the first victims of was this couple minding their own business near Chater. Those were the times. 2021-05-17 21:31:40 @wanderer_jasnah @K_krazy_xoxo Hah. Surprised they didn’t send in the raptors. Go all out, why not? 2021-05-17 21:25:21 @eco_marci Absolutely plausible. 2021-05-17 21:13:10 @wanderer_jasnah 2021-05-17 21:01:59 And, that's a wrap. https://t.co/RPnWKWDiar 2021-05-17 20:52:07 Yeah, my own university had large outbreaks early on last year so we... sent many of the students home. https://t.co/gkKETC8vhM 2021-05-17 20:50:58 Yeah, another local but also global photo. https://t.co/m29T0LOvhm 2021-05-17 20:45:24 @BordeauxBlues That sounds about right! 2021-05-17 20:42:01 Also, folks, do note: I was confident that this thread wouldn't turn into tragicomic reflections mostly from poorer countries! Not at all! (If anything, some poorer countries have more robust public health reflexes). The struggle, so to speak, is global. 2021-05-17 20:38:36 The fact-check is on-brand, too! "That’s mostly right — it was a paddle boarder, not a surfer, out on the water at a beach that was closed to slow the spread of COVID-19." Please get the water device correct, people! https://t.co/J3OKjsXfwe https://t.co/DQlOpCBn9S 2021-05-17 20:34:58 I was going to ask for pictures or news story, but having lived in Europe, I totally believe this. "You need forms to be able to leave, and these unspecified forms can be obtained in person at the local courthouse" would be a way to up this game. https://t.co/b66ctlF8bb 2021-05-17 20:16:22 @turbovax I believe you but really? I mean, yes I believe you but what??? 2021-05-17 20:15:51 Yes, the way US did "travel bans" (which weren't, really) was really peak counterproductive. https://t.co/hm3i3HamDo 2021-05-17 20:10:48 @JamesFallows Yes, and it was a time we did not test, so who knows what got seeded where? (Hard to know because of the stochasticity). 2021-05-17 20:09:52 @KBibbinsDomingo My grandmother would sprinkle in my stuff, hoping I'd miss a few and thus be protected, so sounds about right. 2021-05-17 20:08:11 Yeah, though I have a bit more sympathy for whatever we did in March of 2020 (both fear and uncertainty were understandably high) but this example is a bit extreme, and circling the dog walking as non-essential makes it past the threshold. https://t.co/lJIXDQdmU1 2021-05-17 20:05:35 @martijn_grooten Pictures! 2021-05-17 20:05:04 Well, fine, but that makes the stunt *worse* tbh https://t.co/JPzYpfcuoW 2021-05-17 20:04:06 @anadromy Why can't they just limit numbers? If that's the concern? 2021-05-17 20:03:15 Yes, this may be the sad US winner. Announcing a weird travel ban late (and not strong enough if one really wanted to shut the border) but causing a rush back and then making the people wait in cramped queues indoors while handing out disinfectant wipes. https://t.co/mF167Z0muy https://t.co/0VzwpfIJvV 2021-05-17 19:59:01 Perennial first world problem, so to speak. In the clinic I volunteered, solution was sensible: let people put a surgical mask *over* their N95. (It was prolonged time indoors and not in a hospital so no hospital ventilation—highest risk thing I did tbh). https://t.co/UqqO01mUJQ 2021-05-17 19:56:52 Okay, this one has me worried. I hope this was not widespread. https://t.co/lShLgeTZsv 2021-05-17 19:54:41 A seal of approval for this one! (No worries, I'll show myself out at the end). https://t.co/Mmdpx0TUex 2021-05-17 19:52:59 @DrSdeG That sounds right, but we need pictures. 2021-05-17 19:51:34 Australia represents! Being wealthy and big enough that you have resources to helicopter in to campers so remote that was the only way to get to them? Also saying "stay home, save lives" at the end. A++. https://t.co/3aAoADvXp2 2021-05-17 19:45:51 Remember we are looking for *on brand* for the location and pointless, high score on both increases competitiveness. Merely pointless doesn't count as much because that's just too many examples right now. 2021-05-17 19:44:47 My submission from Turkey is a refined one: the lone swimmer was *pulled* from the water to be talked at from a close distance by two police officers, and may well need to go to an indoors court to pay a fine. (Tourists, though, are allowed to swim there). https://t.co/p8mxFc62MS 2021-05-17 19:42:16 Let's start a thread with pandemic "mitigations" that are as *on brand* for the country while also as pointless as possible. Sri Lanka has a strong entry below. I'll be submitting one right below that. (Warning: gallows humor will likely show up, and may not be for everyone). https://t.co/wMto7IQJNU 2021-05-17 19:38:28 @deifieddata Yes, actually. Many of them have fled to Turkey (and are Turkic speakers). 2021-05-17 19:04:27 @deifieddata Yes, I hear Uyghurs in China are really despondent over the extensive attention to their comfortable camps, and can see right through these nefarious plans. 2021-05-17 18:11:31 @yudhanjaya I dunno, "Ten most absurd pandemic practices you're missing out on" could have a viable financial model, getting contracts from various governments? They seem to be in a race of sorts here, and might feel like spending some money to make sure they remain competitive. 2021-05-17 18:09:04 RT @andrew_croxford: A longer interval between dose 1 and 2 elicits a stronger antibody response for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Good to k… 2021-05-17 18:03:05 @yudhanjaya I think we need to organize a conference to share such know-how, to make sure nobody is left behind. 2021-05-17 17:55:06 RT @kakape: EMA has changed the recommended storage conditions for Pfizer vaccine. Instead of 5 days the thawed, unopened vials can now be… 2021-05-17 17:54:25 @yudhanjaya But note our advanced position: the lone swimmer was *pulled* from the water to be talked at from a close distance by two police officers, and may need to go to an indoors court to pay his fine. https://t.co/n5lSD6wscm 2021-05-17 17:50:01 @yudhanjaya I submit an entry from Turkey. (Also, he is fined because he is not a tourist—tourists are allowed to swim, but locals are pulled from the water to be fined). https://t.co/p8mxFc62MS 2021-05-17 17:15:50 RT @ddiamond: Nice couple that runs a local cleaners will soon get 2nd shots. I asked: why not get shots earlier, given age and eligibilit… 2021-05-17 15:39:10 @audowla @arpitrage (I mean, hers!) 2021-05-17 15:39:02 @audowla @arpitrage It is a great article! 2021-05-17 15:21:51 RT @EricTopol: The seminal body of #AI work of 3 women scientists was not even acknowledged in the segment on facial recognition that aired… 2021-05-17 14:08:00 @timcarman Thank you. Especially when it seems to check every box... 2021-05-17 14:05:35 Credible reports of Apple's supply chain being deeply intertwined with, at a minimum, forced labor from the Uyghur minority in China, are increasing. Maybe Apple employees can also put this on their agenda? https://t.co/HJxu244wRt https://t.co/KsnOXlQK3J 2021-05-17 14:00:00 @mradamtaylor @dandrezner Plus, the frozen food bit, including putting it in the press conference and how it was ranked as a possibility. 2021-05-17 13:00:30 @statesdj Exactly. The cascades can hit many things downstream, including quite unexpected things. 2021-05-17 12:48:37 @eco_marci It has been incredibly common throughout the pandemic and sometimes quite damaging. It doesn’t even get noticed, most of the time, let alone called out. See one example below. (Masks, predictably, increase adherence to other measures). https://t.co/uGhvsywswK 2021-05-17 12:30:10 Ireland. Hospital services being canceled. https://t.co/dxRx8LOPdJ 2021-05-17 05:01:11 RT @JOHNJOHNSTONED: “Cleaner indoor air won’t just fight the pandemic, it will minimize the risk of catching flu and other respiratory infe… 2021-05-17 04:04:15 @LaszloVictory @jaketapper Hahaha yes, emergency lit review coming right up. 2021-05-17 04:02:47 RT @trclosson: Torontonians dealing with COVID responsibly 2021-05-17 03:13:10 @jaketapper Had no idea he’d quote me from my newsletter. Too bad I used such highly technical language, might have been a bit too subtle. 2021-05-17 02:24:41 @benyt 2021-05-17 01:10:50 @MaureenErwin4 @notdred The concern is not the vaccinated. Lots of people had no heads up, and even some people who signed up as soon as they became eligible aren’t done. 2021-05-17 00:49:32 @notdred Same report from so many places. 2021-05-17 00:48:49 @trishgreenhalgh 2021-05-16 23:30:23 @MDaware @BillHanage https://t.co/ztvZbb1EtS 2021-05-16 23:23:41 @EIDGeek @BillHanage 2021-05-16 22:55:19 @escalator_drop @BillHanage hahahaha. Surprisingly aloft for a book with such low potential for spreading: a low sales naught, if you will. 2021-05-16 22:46:34 @BillHanage “Exponentials and Aerosols: A Pandemic Memoir.” (Sales were rather flat, har, har). 2021-05-16 22:43:21 @BillHanage It flips into an exponential decay fan club, of course, on the way down. 2021-05-16 22:41:03 @BillHanage We need to start an exponential hate club. https://t.co/qHkW4p9S9g https://t.co/GVarruvV9B 2021-05-16 19:41:42 I clearly disagree with them, and right now, it appears that the overwhelming consensus has shifted against their position, but this happened around last summer. Before that, we were unorthodox. This is different than, say, anti-vaxxers who are, indeed persistently "unorthodox." 2021-05-16 19:38:04 This is getting a lot of attention, but I don't know if people realize "anti-maskers" are not "unorthodox" in some sense: people on WHO's own infection protection committee and the person they assigned reviews on transmission have long publicly said they don't think masks work. https://t.co/DIJIugEF47 2021-05-16 19:15:27 @rossgarber @page88 @nytimes It helps to read the piece and understand the topic, in which case you'd realize being identified as an MD would under-qualify me, as per credentials, to write on the topic compared to "someone named Zeynep Tufekci" in this pandemic—but it's fine. My argument could survive that. 2021-05-16 19:12:27 @rossgarber @page88 @nytimes Sociology of mask mandates/guidelines is, of course, not a medical issue. If you mean masks in community transmission, that's also not a clinical MD issue—epidemiology, aerosol science & 2021-05-16 19:01:08 RT @daniel_depaolo: @zeynep Here's another example of misguided covid-19 policy from Ontario, Canada. It's likely the most stark example of… 2021-05-16 18:34:38 @trishgreenhalgh It's like the time my landlord tried to evict me during the pandemic on the weakest possible legal claim, and during a moratorium on evictions, to boost. (He lost). I have to sit on my hands and not say, actually, here's how you'd... 2021-05-16 18:31:29 @trishgreenhalgh And for one of my rarer pandemic pieces where I don't cross lanes much if at all, and the piece wasn't about a medical issue.I present much, much better targets for credential-policing, my dude. For this one, an MD would have been less "officially" qualified than a sociologist. 2021-05-16 18:18:00 @MARYAMALKHAWAJA It’s so jarring. 2021-05-16 18:17:22 @rossgarber @page88 @nytimes Besides everything else, you’re still missing the obvious point it wasn’t a medical issue I was writing on. If you’re going to start credential-policing (fine, whatever!) try understanding the topic so you do it in the right direction. 2021-05-16 18:12:12 RT @AdrienneLaF: "If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that we cannot ignore the warning signs for future catastrophes." Important… 2021-05-16 17:40:58 @hilarielang Yes, though I don't mean this to put down science communication! It's a real skill, and a really crucial one. It's also devalued a lot, though, and not what I do, but I'm assigned that box exactly because it *is* devalued, and despite the fact it's not what I do, really. 2021-05-16 16:34:18 @KBibbinsDomingo Thank you! It's been an honor working with people across disciplines at a time like this! Genuine honor. (I just find the sometimes limited way we approach these questions fascinating, and am always thinking about what are we learning for the future). 2021-05-16 16:04:34 @DrLeanaWen Which wasn’t that hard to predict. I don’t understand why they didn’t coordinate beforehand. 2021-05-16 16:01:28 Remembered, this was public. (Didn't work. Next WHO guidelines put this as a risk from masks, without citation. Next one kept it, and cited irrelevant stuff about children—ignoring decades of prior research, and during this, pandemic showing the opposite.) https://t.co/sOrP43qQC0 https://t.co/i60r73QY6R 2021-05-16 15:43:23 @ashwin_id Thank you, but I'm genuinely aware of the pitfalls, too, so whenever I try to help figure something out that crosses disciplines, not only am I constantly checking with others, I do my best do read an enormous amount of primary work. Weird though, we don't train folks to do this. 2021-05-16 15:40:59 Anyway, this was the piece in question. By the way: "sociological aspects" do NOT mean overstate the risks to the vaccinated to compel behavior AT ALL, but about enforcement, readiness, and earning trust via clear explanations etc. Back to some other work. https://t.co/ZvonnSxnsA 2021-05-16 15:38:22 When I've time, I'll try to think back on this. I started with need to get ready and masks, then on ventilation/outdoors/aerosols and overdispersion, back-and-forth on the sociology. Ended up with Lancet and PNAS etc. as well. The thread is attempts at synthetic causal analyses. 2021-05-16 15:31:18 Anyway, I'm genuinely not concerned (always a worry for me when I highlight these things: please don't think I'm upset one bit). But the part about who gets to analyze complex issues and how we do it, and the hierarchies and interplay between these "lanes" are super interesting. 2021-05-16 15:25:52 But also interesting how lane-crossing is not recognized the other way around. Some medical doctors or experts, including those deciding policy, routinely make really unfounded assumptions on the behavioral side, and with great confidence. Not all, of course, but a real issue. 2021-05-16 15:23:27 On the serious side, a bunch of what I've done is genuinely lane-crossing, and I've mostly done it in order to facilitate the interdisciplinary, synthetic analyses we do need. There's a genuine question there on how to do this well in general, and the dangers (which are real). 2021-05-16 15:18:21 @HERO_Respondi @statesdj Goodness yeah the German rules on this are so complicated! And people get offended if you miss things. 2021-05-16 15:12:10 @kasza_leslie Thank you! I'm hoping the pandemic finally puts the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in context. We needed everyone from aerosol engineers to social scientists to virologists to epidemiologists to medical doctors and immunologists etc. for so many key questions. 2021-05-16 15:09:32 @statesdj hahaha DR^2 2021-05-16 15:08:42 Also, I'm not complaining. After more than a year of pandemic writing, I'm good. But it's hilarious. I get this and also the back-handed "good science communicator" faux compliment a lot—as if I'm just communicating ready-made science rather than my own analysis and synthesis. 2021-05-16 15:02:28 True. A medical doctor is not, by training, qualified to write about the sociological aspects of mask mandates so I hope people don't dismiss my piece thinking I'm an MD, nor opinions of other MDs. These question involve all of us and many disciplines. https://t.co/4D0n8KQ0qS 2021-05-16 14:55:07 Ironically, I've actually reached beyond my credentials a lot during the pandemic, especially to do interdisciplinary work: I *do* get the dangers of this and am always very conscious of it, but I believe my record stands for itself. But lol, this one was smack in my own field. 2021-05-16 14:50:19 The cat is out of the bag, folks! I knew this day would come, when I'd be outed. And in a piece where I talk about sociological aspects of mask mandates, too. Cruel irony after more than a year of pandemic writing. (FWIW, Dr. for PhDs is NYT convention, not about me). https://t.co/Z5QN7RhSPe 2021-05-16 14:29:26 @SteveTSRA Exactly 2021-05-16 14:26:00 @KWinterEpi Thank you! 2021-05-16 14:09:03 (I had an earlier version of this for my newsletter). We have this in multiple realms: complex systems with significant fragilities and vulnerabilities where we treat near-misses (like 2003 SARS) as things we can now ignore, rather than the alarm that should get us moving to fix. 2021-05-16 14:04:05 Prepandemic, I wrote a lot about our digital infrastructure vulnerabilities—like the ransomware that crippled the pipeline. For the Atlantic, I tried to explain the why and the connection: tightly coupled, networked systems are prone to cascading failures. https://t.co/mm4noudo1U https://t.co/wXIyJdHNMP 2021-05-16 04:29:01 RT @gregpak: "We shouldn’t just get new rules, we should get explanations." https://t.co/oWWvQcmx0D 2021-05-16 02:35:51 @KEVINTICE7 @chumunculus That’s another consideration. At a minimum, we should give people at least few weeks to adjust. Many are barely done despite starting when eligible. 2021-05-16 02:21:58 @KEVINTICE7 @chumunculus Maybe read first? 2021-05-16 01:39:54 @saraht_74 You should read the piece. Not at all asking for a fib. The opposite. 2021-05-16 01:39:23 @JuliaRaifman Thank you! 2021-05-16 01:38:11 @lizgarbus @mike_hogan So glad to hear my work has been useful! 2021-05-16 01:37:45 @suziecixous @jajamjamejames @bitter_witch @EricMeyerowitz That seropositivity rate is shaky, in my view. The sample was not just random, it was very biased. 2021-05-16 01:36:59 @iamlaurasaurus @MPSellitto @CharlesVanThune @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins Of course. Similar around me. Trial data: 15% fever, 59% fatigue, 51% headache, 35% chills, 37% muscle pain. I agree it is much better than risking COVID but the idea that this is something working people—especially those also juggling childcare—can just ignore isn't true. 2021-05-16 01:30:03 @MPSellitto @CharlesVanThune @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins Substantial numbers have strong enough effects though to need a day or two off. You can’t expect people not to think about that, especially the working poor. 2021-05-16 01:20:33 RT @chumunculus: Update on the below: https://t.co/xnWPYrBsJX @zeynep looked into it 2021-05-16 01:06:11 @TVinsonTV @mike_hogan Thank you! 2021-05-15 21:35:46 @CT_Bergstrom More evidence for huge selection bias in that survey. Only 20% of the respondents said it was fine for the vaccinated to socialize indoors if the numbers are large. That doesn't seem right for April/May responses (maybe December/January when one could quibble about equipoise). https://t.co/Kz2L6Nm6pe 2021-05-15 21:17:09 RT @gob: "We shouldn’t just get new rules, we should get explanations." And how. A basic principle of almost all rule-making: open reasonin… 2021-05-15 19:22:42 Let me repeat something that’s misunderstood. “Sociological reasons” does NOT mean falsely exaggerate risk to the vaccinated. Actually the opposite. (CDC should be clearer on transmission beyond “reduced”—too vague). It means give people time to prepare, and consider enforcement. https://t.co/pSPScV857b 2021-05-15 19:13:10 @deputystefan @CapitalBleed @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins (I think it’s clearer than what CDC has spelt out.) 2021-05-15 19:07:10 @CharlesVanThune @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins It takes about two weeks for first dose to start having effects. Six weeks for full process. The polls show especially the working poor have a larger share of “would like to get vaccinated but haven’t arranged it yet”, including time off for side effects. They got zero warning. 2021-05-15 19:04:04 @deputystefan @CapitalBleed @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins You’re still missing the point about enforcement, warning, and more clarity. They don’t even spell out the reduction to transmission risk. It’s implied, not asserted. 2021-05-15 18:54:44 @CapitalBleed @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins Who’s asking they should lie? 2021-05-15 18:54:25 @notdred @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins Indeed. And when you point that out, people are like “well should they have lied” as if that’s the opposite of considered decision making. There’s a way to handle this better and there’s no need for (unethical and not requested) step of exaggerating the risk of the vaccinated. 2021-05-15 18:44:18 @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins *vaxx passports. https://t.co/V0f1YSpIlt 2021-05-15 18:42:36 @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins The obvious, and I also wrote longer, see below. Seeing sociological reasons as if they contradict being straight with the population doesn’t make sense. https://t.co/ZvonnSxnsA 2021-05-15 18:40:17 @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins “Sociological reasons” doesn’t mean exaggerate the risk to the vaccinated. It means ask basic questions like how will just be enforced since we don’t have axing passports, and since we switched to this over a single evening with no chance to get ready. 2021-05-15 18:39:07 @BrendanNyhan @DaveAHopkins Oh come on. Putting sociological reasons as separate from or opposed to telling the truth is nonsense. The sociological reasons are about details of enforcement, lack of warning, and the fact that a lot of people did not have a chance yet. Eligibility opened up not that long ago. 2021-05-15 18:33:22 @7homaslin Thank you. And I think we can say this without exaggerating the risk to the vaccinated. 2021-05-15 17:47:56 RT @balbonipaolo: @zeynep's beautifully written piece for @theatlantic on the #ColonialPipeline Attack illustrates why data security by des… 2021-05-15 16:08:53 @cakeandpen @MichaelMaiello No. I’m for more transparency and have always been. Read my piece for details. That’s not the disagreement. 2021-05-15 16:02:09 RT @andrew_croxford: If you receive the Novavax jab and experience an overwhelming urge to move erratically toward a lightbulb, this is pro… 2021-05-15 15:45:17 RT @bjrisman: Worth thinking about.. 2021-05-15 15:32:33 @MichaelMaiello Yes. And I've been saying that for a long time. Enforcement and timing still matter. Can say "the fully vaccinated should proceed freely in their private lives, indoors or outdoors but we can't check vaccine cards at grocery stores and not everyone has had a chance yet." 2021-05-15 15:24:46 I did write about it in my latest newsletter. Yes, likely a cluster — one-to-many transmission is most likely, I think — and, yes, should probably be sequenced to see but doesn't seem like a concern given what we know about it. https://t.co/VduDBqPouW https://t.co/5pmJQkYHki 2021-05-15 15:18:59 @zchagla (Day 20 for Pfizer). 2021-05-15 15:16:09 @MichaelMaiello Completely possible to say the vaccinated are back to baseline risk, but we can’t enforce masks by vaccination status indoors yet and it’s too soon because many states opened up eligibility too recently for everyone who wanted one to complete the process, for example. 2021-05-15 15:14:31 @MichaelMaiello You’re not reading what I wrote. I am advocating releasing more info. That’s not the same as saying there are sociological considerations to enforcement. 2021-05-15 15:13:35 @mike_hogan Aaw. I’m so glad my work was useful to you. Thank you! 2021-05-15 15:13:07 @zchagla Yeah. Our previous data had a lot that was censored at day 27, and thus not a complete look—and even that was fairly high. 2021-05-15 15:02:15 @pursuitofPH Thank you! 2021-05-15 15:00:13 @proales @TheAtlantic I have been training people on using security keys for years, to the degree that Amazon recommended a Yubikey for people purchasing my book, but Advanced Protection is unusable for the most part for normal journalists or people. And you know there's more to it than that. 2021-05-15 14:55:15 @MichaelMaiello Including in my thread, and if you look at my work for months, I keep repeating this. I'd appreciate the correction, because saying "sociology of it is important" is about enforcement considerations, not AT ALL about lying to the public. The opposite. https://t.co/T4RoGpM0AJ 2021-05-15 14:53:33 @MichaelMaiello My thinking has no "noble lie" in it. In fact, as I write, I'd like the CDC to say it all explicitly. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT https://t.co/EFxExbQYK5 2021-05-15 14:20:42 RT @TheAtlantic: The digital insecurity exposed by the Colonial Pipeline attack is a warning—just like those the world ignored before the p… 2021-05-15 14:12:20 @LaLuUno @insight I’m glad it was useful! 2021-05-15 13:58:27 @gob Yeah 2021-05-15 13:50:42 RT @insight: Why I'm not concerned about the Yankees' Cluster (and how breakthrough cases are both inevitable but not the same as cases amo… 2021-05-15 13:11:45 @roby_bhatt @dylanhmorris @AaronRichterman I guess even less worth a thought if they are not. 2021-05-15 12:11:16 @KBibbinsDomingo Thank you. 2021-05-15 03:55:01 @nnnnnnnn Thank you. 2021-05-15 02:57:35 @awake87288167 The only one invoking feelings is you, sorry can't help with that. Hope the rest of your day goes better. 2021-05-15 02:52:58 See this chart: you can see how fast exponential decay can work to our advantage. Throwing everything at it at once really quickens the process on the way down (the opposite of the terrible effect of even small delays on the way up). https://t.co/0RAxvTDPsM 2021-05-15 02:48:22 @awake87288167 Where is there anything about your "feels"? It's your projection. Sorry, can't help it if you are touchy. 2021-05-15 02:47:14 @mdawriter Thank you. 2021-05-15 00:20:14 This is the timeline in many states. Would’ve been better to give some time for this, and a heads up. https://t.co/0JumUlcZ75 2021-05-15 00:13:19 @ProfQueue Truth is, we don’t really know yet. 2021-05-14 22:39:00 RT @Shivaekul: I got my first shot basically immediately upon it being open to *all* adults in my county, it wasn't even open statewide at… 2021-05-14 22:01:59 I would’ve been in favor of this shift a little later if it had been pre-announced and tied to reasonable benchmarks, and explained better. If nothing else, there are workers who are immunocompromised. The poor, largely minority essential workers have suffered disproportionately. 2021-05-14 21:52:00 @ZoeMcLaren It was too timid in recommending masks outdoors for the vaccinated (why?). And two weeks later, it's now no masks anywhere for the vaccinated (ignoring the sociology of it, my concern). Also what changed in two weeks for this big a shift? They should explain. 2021-05-14 21:50:21 @EricMeyerowitz The problem is the sociology: it's not enforceable anymore. Indoors (like in grocery stores) it's all or nothing, to be honest. The people refusing to vaccinate, for example, are not likely to be voluntarily wearing mask. So my worry isn't transmission from the vaccinated. 2021-05-14 21:43:24 And I'm very much on the vaccines are amazing side of this: I think the data on individual protection and transmission — including against variants — is excellent and very encouraging. But mandates have sociological dynamics and benchmarks are better than abrupt changes. 2021-05-14 21:40:54 Eek, correction. Before the CDC change, North Carolina had a sensible policy, saying the mandates would all be lifted when two thirds of adults had at least one dose. One could quibble with the exact number, but it was a goal and a benchmark. Now all gone. https://t.co/vsUuXZHMQ6 2021-05-14 21:37:26 @Ruby EEK 2021-05-14 21:30:33 Also, I agree we should provide carrots to encourage vaccination. I'm all for carrots! But a vaccination benchmark for lifting all mandates (like North Carolina is doing) is a good carrot. No mandate any more and no checking doesn't seem like a carrot to me, but the opposite. 2021-05-14 21:28:40 @natem42 There is no carrot if there are no mandates and no checking. 2021-05-14 21:28:28 @boutros555 Not everywhere. 2021-05-14 21:23:55 @awgaffney Yeah exactly. https://t.co/ZvonnSxnsA 2021-05-14 21:15:53 I'm on board with the "the vaccinated have lowered their personal risk back to baseline" but there's more to indoor mask mandates than that, including sociological factors. Many just became eligible! Even access isn't fully solved. Not sure about this hurry, this week. 2021-05-14 21:09:28 The CDC mask guidance switched too fast without enough explanation and overlooks key sociological factors for indoor mask mandates—especially to protect workers and the immunocompromised. Better to have announced benchmarks—and kept it up just a bit more. https://t.co/soi3jsD1rT https://t.co/wedLXzHlwr 2021-05-14 17:51:46 @dylanhmorris @AaronRichterman @roby_bhatt Yeah, waiting for sequencing! (They have to be, right?). Not that it's too likely, but I'd check the fridge settings wherever they got vaccinated, too, esp. if it was not at a healthcare setting. Few options: someone was very infectious, or variant breakthrough, or fridge fail? 2021-05-14 17:45:32 RT @AaronRichterman: Exactly how to think about this. Beware the worried headlines of small clusters of breakthrough infections. 2021-05-14 16:15:18 RT @EricTopol: The considerable debate about whether delaying the 2nd vaccine dose was a risk: it may actually be a benefit "Peak antibody… 2021-05-14 16:06:53 @amac @evelyndouek The authorities declare where they think "the line is for now for action" and not "what's within the boundaries of scientific discussion" let alone all that versus outright falsehood/nonsense. The latter is sometimes easy but even that can get messy. We're not equipped for this. 2021-05-14 14:00:28 @halvorz Which makes complete sense, and it would be unusual (and a strong signal!) if they had consensus on that either way. I think this is (yet another) example of how, on complex questions, social media declarations about what expert opinion or consensus leans toward can be premature. 2021-05-14 12:30:18 Do note that there are many possibilities that combine some of these theories (zoonotic origin *and* lab screw-up, for example). Personally, besides "I don't know", the only one I can discount is the bioweapon research: that makes no sense. Rest: needs a genuine investigation. 2021-05-14 12:23:29 Finally, I appreciate this. Questioning Chinese government statements or lab safety or a particular kind of research is not racist *by itself.* That is a great disservice to China's own scientists and dissidents. Racism exists, but opposite of it isn't can't question governments. https://t.co/uAe3QlkNhL 2021-05-14 12:16:57 Note they are *not* saying we know but are clearly saying demotion of lab link as less or unlikely is not supported by data yet. So often a Narrative™ emerges here that experts think A or B. Reality: many eminent experts are too busy for Twitter, and some questions are complex. https://t.co/bwKokV34pf 2021-05-14 12:08:40 Huge deal. Some very eminent virologists, including Dr. Baric who worked with the lab in Wuhan, have published a statement that both zoonotic origin and lab accident are "viable" as origin. (Social media claims aren't scientific consensus, part zillion). https://t.co/RGYgA2jo7f https://t.co/jhJl8IAyBG 2021-05-14 03:33:27 @stevemushero @seanphughes99 @dtrimble Thank you! 2021-05-14 03:01:46 @hstein3 You’re not crazy but that message came from people who were not understanding aerosols. 2021-05-14 02:43:54 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Help! 2nd grader figured out how to access @YouTube through school-managed computer. We, obviously, don't want him to h… 2021-05-14 01:24:52 @EpiEllie @wsbgnl Got it, thanks. 2021-05-14 01:07:46 @wsbgnl @EpiEllie Those are talking about the future. Sure there will be a future but I just haven’t seen anybody talking about that now. 2021-05-14 01:06:15 @michaelbd @GScottShand That’s just not true. What is true is you can get more out of it with attention to fit and filter. What is absolutely not true is that aerosols make masks are useless compared to droplets. It’s the opposite. 2021-05-14 01:05:02 @wsbgnl @EpiEllie I’m not ruling it out but I’m just not finding it. I’m fairly familiar with that group, they are among the most conservative people I know when it comes to indoor mask mandates. If people have public positions, totally fine to point it out, no? Maybe there are few? Haven’t seen. 2021-05-14 01:02:36 @michaelbd @GScottShand They do get better efficiency with fit. But they’re very useful against aerosol spread even with not that great fit. Plus they block the emissions that become floaty things after quick evaporation. With droplets, you don’t need masks as much, distance would be enough. 2021-05-14 00:58:57 @trizzlor @GScottShand @michaelbd In fairness, explanations and guidance about this have been very muddled. Masks don’t work against airborne diseases come mostly from people who don’t understand aerosols correctly and were the ones very much pushing for droplets as sole mechanism. So confusion is understandable. 2021-05-14 00:57:07 @jschauma Thank you! 2021-05-14 00:56:36 @DrPieterPeach @EpiEllie Hah. Regardless, they tend to be a lot more conservative on the question of masks indoors so I would be surprised. Not ruling it out but I haven’t seen any examples so I was curious who might fit what she’s describing. 2021-05-14 00:48:12 @EpiEllie Who? I don’t see much, if any, of that from that group? 2021-05-14 00:25:44 @GScottShand @michaelbd Yeah. Masks are actually more important for dampening aerosol transmission. 2021-05-13 23:21:36 RT @CT_Bergstrom: Kids, this is why you always plausibility-check your big data analysis before you letting the results out the door. Tex… 2021-05-13 21:26:09 RT @jljcolorado: 9/ And a really well written article on this history was published also today by @MeganMolteni from @WIRED: https://t.co… 2021-05-13 21:16:06 @epopppp Will try to write a post about it very soon. Somewhat ambivalent about the sociology of it, and have some thoughts on the exponential decay opportunity. 2021-05-13 18:57:56 RT @christianlanng: I'm nervous we have little understanding of the emergent complex system we have built w. vulnerabilities on every level… 2021-05-13 18:53:12 This is why the whole lack of clear communication and understanding around aerosol transmission—and the ensuing dominant visualization of COVID-19 mitigation as disinfecting, and its breach as people outdoors/beaches—matters. It makes things worse. https://t.co/I65xtxLFgp 2021-05-13 18:51:19 @jpohhhh @slowphotograph2 If this was an exception, and if COVID mitigation wasn't visually represented with disinfection, and breach of it with being outdoors/beaches, yeah you'd have a point. This is not an exception. 2021-05-13 18:44:53 @jpohhhh @slowphotograph2 The visuals are misinformation and need to stop. That's what most people see. 2021-05-13 18:40:35 Yep, the problem with gyms — enclosed spaces where people engage in activities that we know greatly increase aerosol production — is that we aren't sufficiently good at spraying the weights with disinfectants. (ht @slowphotograph2) https://t.co/SBb7E2mUaD 2021-05-13 17:05:33 @Biomaven Thank you! 2021-05-13 16:45:58 @jhp000 Thank you. 2021-05-13 16:43:35 @populational Do you mean the many many articles I’ve already written about exactly that? Now do a Google search. 2021-05-13 16:20:35 @macroliter Recipe. Take separate questions: 1-Risk/benefit of GoF research? 2-Risk/safety of BSL-4 labs esp. in cities? 3-Does SARS-CoV-2 have GoF link or 100% zoonotic? 4-Does WIV lab have role in the outbreak in *either* scenario? 5-Mistrust 5-Social media/polarization Mix it up, enjoy. 2021-05-13 15:30:16 The half a tank of gas in my Civic as most gas stations in North Carolina have no fuel? Battlestar Galactica? Pandemic? Networked threats? Negative externalities? I wrote about how we keep failing to understand and fix such systems before a crisis hits. https://t.co/mNBpmwchaJ https://t.co/5kV3seW6Ll 2021-05-13 14:00:58 @benyt Yeah. Not surprised at the first piece you link at all. I hope this is a lesson in the dangers of falling for every story line that fits The Preferred Narrative™. And kudos to people like @nataliexdean and others who were so clear about all this and tried hard to explain it. 2021-05-13 02:46:20 @arsdila I’m sorry 2021-05-13 01:56:33 @GendlinsMuse No. "An indoor reception followed the outdoor ceremony." It had a multi-day indoor component. 2021-05-12 18:09:37 @StuckIn48403550 Yeah. Many tried to explain why hybrid wasn't a good idea from early on... Alas. 2021-05-12 16:32:29 @StuckIn48403550 That was also suggested by early modeling and results. Possible, because it mixes networks. 2021-05-12 16:19:22 @statesdj Part of why I argue, later in the thread, that all this needs to go along with comprehensive investigations into related aspects as well (otherwise won't be able to convince people). We are amidst the emergency so some of this is probably not clear to people, but it's obvious. 2021-05-12 15:19:03 (Also remember: when facing exponential growth, early action is worth so much more, and delay is very, very costly. There are things that will work early on in an epidemic that simply cannot keep up even just a few weeks later. I expect many papers will explore all that). 2021-05-12 14:26:48 Here's a paper from Science modeling the early spread. Most introductions were dead-ends. Earlier acceptance of the key trifecta—indoor superspreading as choke-point, transmission without symptoms, and airborne spread—could have given us a different path. https://t.co/YvvNfCQ5xA 2021-05-12 14:16:25 Here, we need one for the CDC and at the state level as well, trying to understand both how the previous administration hampered efforts and also what wasn't working well (yes, those are intertwined, but both exist). 2021-05-12 14:13:26 Ideally, we'll eventually have an NTSB style no-blame post-mortem analysis—no blame because we've already seen the defensiveness (human, but not helpful) and it impedes understanding. Besides, the point is to figure things out for the future. We can and should do better. 2021-05-12 14:10:44 As with any such issue, there are sociological/institutional constraints, but also, clearly what was possible within such constraints but didn't happen. Masks recs (WHO did NOT recommend masks indoors until December 2020 if could be distanced), airborne/aerosol recognition etc. 2021-05-12 14:07:20 First (probably of many) reports looking especially at the initial WHO response to the pandemic, and what went wrong there. Good points, including need for more clout, independence, and resources. I look forward to the investigation that looks at guidelines/recs (it will happen). https://t.co/4FKLBp0nTl 2021-05-12 13:54:45 @AndrewJPerrin Congratulations! 2021-05-12 13:29:43 @StanMcHale You're very welcome. I'm glad to hear my work has been useful to you. 2021-05-12 13:28:13 @BrendanCarmich7 @MackayIM @LongDesertTrain @MicahPollak @chrisanymouse It works the other way, too. Not everything that's airborne requires measles-level protections so a lot of misunderstandings in both directions can hopefully be cleared up. 2021-05-12 13:25:14 @trishgreenhalgh Yeah painful to read, and the article is in response to at least three known choir cases. And! Nature article from 2019! It's all there, before this. https://t.co/gdIJrzrU0A https://t.co/t7HW58K4uC 2021-05-12 13:12:49 @ZoeMcLaren I don't see the connection at all to the argument over endemicity (but taking advantage of exponential decay is good, along with all the trade-off considerations). 2021-05-12 13:03:35 @MackayIM @LongDesertTrain @BrendanCarmich7 @MicahPollak @chrisanymouse Yeah, I hear you. (Still waiting to see how long it will take WHO to update its July 2020 scientific briefing). But that said, I think a lot of researchers feel empowered (they were ridiculed for so long, even into the pandemic) to make their empirical case. We'll see. 2021-05-12 13:00:21 This is why I support simple and credible mandates and guidelines plus information to let people judge *and* a norm that a transition will be slow, and there are sociological processes that govern mandates/rules as well as individual ones for practice: https://t.co/HmhQvOXKk7 https://t.co/Go8xCsMoHa 2021-05-12 12:57:13 I've written both for the Atlantic and the BMJ arguing for removing outdoor mask mandates. But that's not the same as saying nobody should or could choose to wear one, or we should be judging them. People may be immunocompromised. Or just not comfortable. Or whatever. Let it go. https://t.co/JAmeNVa0jD 2021-05-12 12:54:06 @MackayIM @LongDesertTrain @BrendanCarmich7 @MicahPollak @chrisanymouse Just look at SARS literature (I have). Essentially, even its short-term epi etc. data is screaming at folks, but they just ignore or step over it because of the "close contact=respiratory droplet" conflation. We have a lot more data (or will?) for other ones, too. 2021-05-12 12:52:22 @jilliancyork Yeah, it's terrible. I'm sorry. I wrote about this, last time. Having a sensible rule and an explanation can help, because even if there doesn't need to be a mandate for outdoors, they should explain circumstances vary. https://t.co/E5QVDcrajc 2021-05-12 12:47:09 Yes, absolutely let's focus on sensible mandates and guidelines, but our job is to provide them and let people be—especially yet. People can understand the new rules/recommendations and just not feel comfortable yet with this or that. Can we hold a hot minute on the judgment? 2021-05-12 12:41:58 Three questions: What should be mandated? (That's our business). What should be the guidelines? (That's also our business, it affects possibilities). What do individuals feel comfortable with after a pandemic year and varying circumstances? (THIS ISN'T OTHER PEOPLE'S BUSINESS). 2021-05-12 12:36:59 @MackayIM @LongDesertTrain @BrendanCarmich7 @MicahPollak @chrisanymouse All this is potentially going to have a lot of upsides, going forward, I suspect for most respiratory pathogens. 2021-05-12 03:22:12 @ashishkjha @trvrb This is going to be so tough. 2021-05-11 23:47:02 RT @YearCovid: New post: A timeline of the strange period last year when the most prominent anti-mask campaigners were public health offi… 2021-05-11 21:37:48 Seeing so many wondering if confirmed outdoor transmission can really be that low, compared with indoors. Yes. This confusion is another loss of being so late to acknowledge the key role of aerosols: the epidemiological record shows exactly what acknowledging aerosols predicts. 2021-05-11 21:00:12 @DrDrAbhiKole @DLeonhardt It was a multi-day event with a large indoor component. 2021-05-11 20:59:40 RT @ICLSColumbia: Join us tonight at 6pm EST @Zeynep Tufekci will speak on "Navigating the Pandemic: Between the Social and The Medical" @c… 2021-05-11 18:22:18 @macroliter @michaelmina_lab Would some of you folks please write this out in a readable format? I do my best to keep explaining but there is non-stop fear-mongering and intentional/unintentional panic over the "x-fold reduction" papers.. Most not even getting the NAb point correctly, let alone T cell etc. 2021-05-11 17:59:54 @DeryaTR_ Yes, immunologists are always trying to correct this, but people keep running with the "x-fold reduction" headline as if it corresponds to clinical x-fold reduction in efficacy or something like that. Needlessly scaring people. 2021-05-11 16:07:19 RT @nataliexdean: I have a little (oversimplified!) mental model about this that I put on a post-it note to share. The key point is that va… 2021-05-11 15:50:06 In December, when @michaelmina_lab and I called for *a trial* for delaying boosters, especially for younger populations, the upside was the potential to expand coverage quickly and globally. I'll always regret lack of such a trial/option. (And we both got harshly attacked, tbh). 2021-05-11 15:39:48 However, while I think it's fair to say we expect the vaccines to keep working very well, increased transmissibility — which is looking increasingly likely for B.1.617 (like the earlier B.1.1.7 variant) — is a huge threat to the unvaccinated, exactly because it's exponential. 2021-05-11 15:28:39 Yes to watching variants for partial immune escape but I see many people scaring themselves & 2021-05-11 15:21:56 Really important to note this. There may be the usual fears around B.1.617 because people will see a paper with "x-fold reduction in neutralizing antibodies" etc. Keep in mind that drop DOES NOT correspond even to reduced efficacy, let alone ability to prevent severe cases. https://t.co/brGi7XSrpr 2021-05-11 14:06:29 @AaronRichterman Yeah. Especially since the number used by CDC (and others) seems to be off by an order of 100 (by reported numbers in the actual epi literature). Amazing how much work could be saved if, upon seeing a number that doesn't fit anything reported, people quickly went wait, what? 2021-05-11 13:30:45 RT @barredindc: https://t.co/x7LgQ39kkR https://t.co/MMr2X69CBP 2021-05-11 13:26:28 @DLeonhardt But also that agree with Muge Cevik that the Singapore sites also had shared dormitories (which is what my own chasing down of that number revealed) so that was likely indoors/outdoors in many cases. Thanks for getting the more correct number out. 2021-05-11 13:25:11 @DLeonhardt So construction or similar people singing/yelling at very close distance may allow transmission even outdoors, especially if prolonged. (Which fits what we know from the epidemiology). So that's the outdoor rule for me: avoid close, prolonged contact between the unvaccinated. 2021-05-11 13:20:43 @DLeonhardt At very close distance, (0.2 to 0.5 meter) you *are* spraying people a bit more with larger particles, and the smaller aerosols are more concentrated there, too (will dilute quickly outdoors but at first that' where they are.) See correct graphic: https://t.co/z13WXEH33m 2021-05-11 13:17:06 @DLeonhardt Also on the Singapore construction sites. (I also chased down the same number for my recent NYT piece). Besides the shared dormitories, they do work at loud environment all day: yelling at very close distance. That's probably how you can get those rare outdoor transmission cases. 2021-05-11 12:28:35 @tonyver45 Good for you! And yes that poster is excellent, and we could have—should have—adopted it globally in March 2020. 2021-05-11 12:23:22 I recently went through the same chasing down of known outdoor case percentage. Same conclusion. As @mugecevik explains, "less than 10%" is misleading. Reported numbers of confirmed cases are around 0.1% so way lower than 10% even assuming undercounting. https://t.co/DOD0gV7ngH https://t.co/1Zr5Iuqj54 2021-05-11 12:12:17 RT @paimadhu: A tale of 2 continents One has vaccines approved for kids (12+) Another is yet to vaccinate health workers #VaccineForAll… 2021-05-11 01:48:46 @pjcotera @benthompson You’re very welcome. Yeah, I have so much more on the more recent history of this to eventually write about. 2021-05-10 23:50:56 @EricTopol @PNASNews @Sara_Sawyer_ @CUBoulder @BioFrontiers Overdispersion strikes again. 2021-05-10 22:18:50 Excellent, rapid progress from the CDC, clarifying the tables that came with the aerosol update. https://t.co/1VkODBLdpr 2021-05-10 17:39:43 @alisonkgerber Thank you! 2021-05-10 17:00:30 @AlexBerenson @jljcolorado Not that it will stop you from misleading people but here’s what he actually said. https://t.co/wIAHp6wspB 2021-05-10 16:31:51 @gavinsblog Thank you! 2021-05-10 14:31:20 @morinotsuma @m_older Yeah 2021-05-10 14:06:06 Let me highlight that excellent work has been happening all year, as well. Resistance to relevant expertise was a problem, but many key papers from this year are co-authored by people across disciplines. One interesting interdisciplinary panel today. https://t.co/g9V2PB0D0c 2021-05-10 13:50:24 @DrPieterPeach Yeah. Key JAMA article, July 2020. Joint British Infection Association (BIA), Healthcare Infection Society (HIS), Infection Prevention Society (IPS) and Royal College of Pathologists (RCPath) guidance for SARS-CoV-2, from LAST WEEK. Implications of overdispersion not considered. https://t.co/Kk28rGNKOB 2021-05-10 13:33:15 Yep. Overdispersed things can't be studied with methods not suitable for them. Example: information provided by non-events is asymmetric compared to info from events. Cluster-randomized trials—say for source control—can't easily get statistical power. Etc. https://t.co/RBVgG1QTLO 2021-05-10 13:18:30 @mattyglesias I kept checking and as far as I can tell, neither HEPA nor MERV-13 filters sold out at any point. But there was all sorts of snake oil—or worse—around as well. Officials needed to loudly publicize "YES, HEPA but *ONLY* HEPA". (UV can work too but is trickier, not a DIY project). 2021-05-10 13:14:51 @mattyglesias Absolutely. I wrote about this in my long piece on the science of it all back in July of 2020. Clorox wipes remained sold out for well into the pandemic, HEPA filters—which absolutely do help—did not. Some places wouldn't even *allow* schools to use them. https://t.co/1j4KnrCugU https://t.co/CrUInUrLxA 2021-05-10 13:04:54 Yes. Some of what we can do is easy/free. Some of it is not, and requires resources and trade-offs (sealed building are energy efficient). Filtering can be an option when dilution is not. Challenge is very real, but still should start from the right place. https://t.co/qOVFwkuiow 2021-05-10 12:50:52 Yes, around the world, to this day. And the constant overuse of bleach etc. is not just a waste of time and resources, it's genuinely unhealthy. "Stop over-disinfecting and start ventilating" has to be a loud campaign, led by WHO & 2021-05-10 12:46:47 @EdsonGuthrie @jljcolorado My goodness. 2021-05-10 12:44:54 Overlooked but key. Nothing about transmission in this pandemic makes sense except in the light of overdispersion. It alternates between contagious clusters and little to no transmission. This makes causal inference difficult. It fries our assumptions. https://t.co/59YgSSHdEZ https://t.co/nygPqC3yzn 2021-05-10 12:35:47 The other part is how causal inference differs by field. Clinical practice rightly uses randomized trials (crucial for drugs and vaccines) but the clear point that the droplet theory didn't do a good job explaining the world as we observed it didn't get the attention it deserved. 2021-05-10 12:28:18 The history matters. Top medical journals still publish errors about aerosol size and biomechanics. Not individual malfeasance. The errors are in the textbooks. Medical doctors are not biophysicists or aerosol engineers. Dismissing relevant expertise has been, sadly, very costly. 2021-05-10 12:19:15 Look at this incredible thread by @jljcolorado on the history of aerosol denial/misunderstandings/errors. I put (what I could fit) to highlight this. There's something to say about individual conduct during all this—but also that this is a longer history. https://t.co/yr2jARdgh1 2021-05-10 12:14:12 So much gratitude to @avizvizenilman and @isaacscher who provided incredible research assistance. The piece was fact-checked within an inch of its life over many days, and it's the tip of an iceberg in terms of the research and documentation that went into it. 2021-05-10 12:11:46 My piece on the history and the context of the debate over aerosol transmission is out in print today in the New York Times. (Online is longer and linked below, print is shorter!): https://t.co/B9y2Mf6LC7 https://t.co/NddrEGfbah 2021-05-10 12:05:34 @EricTopol With Topol™ highlights! 2021-05-10 11:25:37 @billbowtell I’m sorry. 2021-05-10 02:46:51 @MackayIM Oh my goodness. I just realized I should start archiving these as teaching material. (Y axis manipulation is a common trick but usually more subtle). 2021-05-10 02:12:00 @max_sixty @shoyer 2021-05-09 23:58:52 @Anto_Berto 2021-05-09 23:19:33 @JustinWolfers Thank you. 2021-05-09 22:30:34 @reefdog @SubstackInc 2021-05-09 21:09:19 @allynwest You're very welcome! 2021-05-09 19:12:00 @sganny @michaelmina_lab @angie_rasmussen Gee, leave it alone. She can add whoever she wants to *her* list, leave out anyone she wants either because she doesn’t think they belong there, or because it’s not comprehensive, or just because she has other things to do than to make the biggest possible list. Come on, folks. 2021-05-09 18:26:54 @AbraarKaran This is so true. This needs so much more than the waiver. 2021-05-09 18:25:59 RT @AbraarKaran: Gregg is right - TRIPS waiver support was great, but on its own will not do much. Need to get serious about vaccine equity… 2021-05-09 18:22:20 @beorn @benthompson I guess you didn’t read the article. 2021-05-09 18:14:23 @mkirschenbaum Also, there is a good deal of evidence especially bleach-based cleaners are terrible for your health if the place isn't ventilated properly. 2021-05-09 18:07:57 @zacdgreene I get sent examples, all the time, to this day, from around the world. Sadly. 2021-05-09 17:57:45 @Kburnel1 That's not true. I have on the record comments from multiple key members of crucial WHO scientific committees saying that if it was indeed aerosols like that, we'd have billions of cases by last summer and using that logic to deny that it was. Common infection control assumption. 2021-05-09 16:22:36 @ProfAdeeba Thank you. Yes, it’s a pity how late we are. 2021-05-09 15:57:20 I just want to keep highlighting that there are very few confirmed outdoor transmission cases at all, and they are mostly in the context of prolonged *and* really close contact AND that the science of aerosol transmission makes it very clear why outdoors is so so much safer. https://t.co/XiZxgkyNpZ 2021-05-09 15:12:28 @aiddya Exactly the problem! This needs urgent attention so it can be fixed by the public health authorities globally and nationally. They need to own the message, that it’s aerosols and airborne, so that they can define it correctly, explain the mitigations and dispel unnecessary fears. 2021-05-09 15:08:12 @BuzzJohnG @linseymarr When is that? 2021-05-09 15:01:19 @aiddya I am so glad to hear this! Yes, exactly. We should encourage people to go outside. I keep hearing similar stories from India, where people are now afraid of the outdoors. I hope those misunderstandings get corrected, soon. (And why I want official agencies to be loud about it). 2021-05-09 14:58:00 @MelanieKiechle Parts of the scientific community dismissing/resisting/rejecting the scientific expertise and findings of another group among the scientific community despite rapidly accumulating and pretty clear evidence is part of the story here. 2021-05-09 14:56:34 @MelanieKiechle I agree, but if the key scientific agencies and some scientists, too had not acted like this, maybe it was an opportunity to move faster especially since pandemic/emergency. Some of that plexiglass & 2021-05-09 14:53:13 RT @thesarahkelly: I distinctly remember the point where they closed all the parks but kept the restaurants open while people were sanitizi… 2021-05-09 14:35:41 @ericschuler Thank you. 2021-05-09 13:48:08 @tyschalter It used to be assumed that all aerosolized pathogens are like measles. It’s just not true. So we didn’t just identify the mechanism wrong, we previously misunderstood the mechanism. Fascinating scientific story. Some more key papers coming out soon as well, but a lot already out. 2021-05-09 13:45:20 @tyschalter It’s actually worse. That “SCREWED” is based on an incorrect understanding of how aerosols work. Recognizing it as aerosols, but also specifically how it works for this pathogen, would’ve allowed us to be much more effective, because it has chokepoints exactly because of that. 2021-05-09 13:43:21 This isn’t exactly true though, for this. Once aerosol transmission is correctly understood, it actually *unlocks* effective mitigations, especially since SARS-CoV-2 is overdispersed (either superspreadering OR low transmission). Aerosol recognition shows us its chokepoints. https://t.co/XXElgA3mgo 2021-05-09 13:36:54 @JohnPlatner @michelebusby @SunnyDfan4eva @aslavitt46 @ScottGottliebMD Teacher masking is the single most effective mitigation. 2021-05-09 12:21:41 @avizvizenilman @jljcolorado And since the epidemic was overdispersed, you need a large sample to get the kind of statistical power and obviousness stand out. Most things “work” simply because there’s no transmission anyway. And then the epidemic died so they ignored it. Evidence is clear in retrospect. 2021-05-09 12:20:00 @avizvizenilman @jljcolorado (Jose, Avi is one of my incredible research assistants). Yes a fascinating question why the western world didn’t figure out after SARS. I looked some at that, and my current sense is they did close contact therefore droplets conflation and ignored the many obvious violations.+ 2021-05-09 11:50:46 @ImmeSwek040 @steph_coen It isn’t great. It’s one of the activities that’s harder to make safe for indoors for the unvaccinated. 2021-05-09 11:40:31 @steph_coen Mask walking around the gym, then take it off during workout. Do they even open doors or windows? 2021-05-09 11:39:25 RT @steph_coen: Yet here in the UK gyms are open with no mask mandate #COVIDisAirborne https://t.co/Fnc18yxiol 2021-05-09 11:36:27 @ProfAdeeba What do they say now? 2021-05-09 03:36:30 @Heather_No_Rum @RottenInDenmark Yeah gives us something to do, as individuals. https://t.co/sIzP9hYvUs https://t.co/ymJhQg5Q6I 2021-05-09 03:09:31 @norootcause Yeah 2021-05-09 02:44:58 The central statement of the group is: “The transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 viruses takes place almost without exception indoors.” ht @BernieCornfeld https://t.co/A0xdCnBiE4 2021-05-09 02:29:11 @mattblaze I didn’t need this right after I saw the starlink go over North Carolina sky tbh 2021-05-09 00:59:08 RT @linseymarr: Deep dive by @zeynep from a sociological perspective on what we who have studied airborne transmission for a while, have be… 2021-05-09 00:55:40 @norootcause Thank you! 2021-05-08 23:25:45 RT @MackayIM: Coronavirus Australia: New advice on COVID spread puts air quality in the spotlight https://t.co/SCemG4SywR 2021-05-08 22:43:32 @AbraarKaran Thank you! 2021-05-08 21:54:55 @LemieuxLGM Thank you! 2021-05-08 21:42:10 What North Carolina is doing. https://t.co/Q8DpkntwPg 2021-05-08 21:39:40 @John1MD @jljcolorado Less ability to contain makes it end sooner, though. People get infected quickly, and then we get exponential decay from immunity. We would get through this very without effective mitigations—just at a horrific cost. Agree mass vaccination is the way to combine speed and benefit. 2021-05-08 21:27:56 @slack2thefuture @DrEricDing People actually working on this are hampered by baseless fears. Like that one. Thanks. 2021-05-08 21:27:07 @slack2thefuture @DrEricDing Absolutely zero epidemiological evidence to think the virus staying infective enough for “HOURS” in the air after person left is something to worry about. Especially since concentrations will keep getting diluted as well. The issue is serious enough and exaggerations don’t help. 2021-05-08 21:12:49 @HironoriFunabi1 Thank you! 2021-05-08 21:12:00 “A cash reward works best with Democrats, and relaxing safety guidelines seems to motivate Republicans, a survey.. shows.” The increases are large. Earlier surveys also shows “protecting others” was top motivation—beyond self-protection. Mix altruism, cash, fewer restrictions. https://t.co/tdy291ulcF 2021-05-08 20:59:32 @EricTopol 2021-05-08 20:50:16 RT @mbeisen: This is horrible - @ringo_ring is a hero. I hope the new admin isn’t continuing this. But it also a reminder that access to sc… 2021-05-08 20:41:45 @jljcolorado Situational germ theory. 2021-05-08 20:36:10 Also I want to highlight this by @rkhamsi, which is one of the earliest pieces I know of in English on all this. March 14, 2020. Look how well it holds up as well, especially in highlighting the need to move beyond the dichotomies quickly. https://t.co/YEKLAKmVec 2021-05-08 20:10:41 RT @eco_marci: This is an excellent point. And explains why you can't just say "I believe science" https://t.co/bp08Smo7P0 2021-05-08 20:02:02 RT @DrAmyGillespie: Great article - it has been so frustrating (and remains frustrating) to see people focusing on cleaning surfaces instea… 2021-05-08 16:37:21 The neat part is the update is because right after the article went live, CDC also updated its guidance. https://t.co/B9y2Mf6LC7 https://t.co/EkgEGSmLme 2021-05-08 15:09:11 @deeptabhattacha I am so, so sorry. Words are so inadequate. My condolences to all their loved ones. 2021-05-08 14:59:37 RT @microlabdoc: This a public health advance that the UK is lagging behind in recognising let alone acting on. Our IC august bodies publis… 2021-05-08 14:57:01 RT @JuliaLMarcus: How the iconic pandemic image became a beach https://t.co/jSi1OGJpW1 2021-05-08 14:28:41 @silenced112 @AlexBerenson It was not a study on community spread (you need to measure the contacts/community, not the mask wearer for that). That was a study on the wearer, and was weakly powered even for that, but even if you take that as is, it is not a study on community spread. 2021-05-08 14:18:58 @AlexBerenson Try linking to the piece where it explains why that is not the case, which is why aerosol scientists were the first ones to call for universal masking and that "masks are useless" crowd are the same people wrongly assuming droplets. (Or, go on your merry way misleading people?) 2021-05-08 13:54:32 @PrasadKasibhat1 Hah yeah. Piece was fact-checked within an inch of its life by a team, and I wrote the most charitable version I could, to be honest. Progress is being made, so didn't seem to make sense to provide the laundry list documenting exactly what was said and where and how—very loudly. 2021-05-08 13:45:49 @jjcalles @Hold2LLC @Lupinator101 @nytimes This team is among world's top aerosol experts. Chase down Marr's citations and other work, too, you'll find a lot more, and most already peer-reviewed. These are the people who had aerosol transmission nailed much earlier. https://t.co/5Z7n75QxIG 2021-05-08 13:37:31 @Hold2LLC @Lupinator101 @nytimes You do note it was the field of aerosol experts, the actual experts in it, are the ones that called for masks earliest? The people writing the "masks don't work against this" etc. are the people who thought this was big droplets & 2021-05-08 13:23:11 @Hold2LLC @nytimes I believe some of it is in the process of being updated. I do wish things were faster, but I'm told the update process isn't complete. We should see soon where it lands. 2021-05-08 13:21:24 @benthompson I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member, @benthompson. (Also I refuse to research if that quote is apocryphal. I declare pandemic exception to ruining good quotes with this alleged importance of historical accuracy). 2021-05-08 12:57:20 @KatyMoeller Thank you! 2021-05-08 12:56:33 @Aelkus @benthompson Many virologists and immunologists [with solid track records] keep saying the virus is relatively mundane, kinda textbook. mRNA vaccines=yes, breakthrough. What I kept getting most surprised has been the strength of the sociological dimensions. I underestimated my own field, lol. 2021-05-08 12:51:53 @Aelkus @benthompson Yeah. If you were there from the beginning, you do see people who get some right, get some wrong but are open either way. Some are very senior, too! But then there are "teams" whose members can be consistently wrong but rarely concede, and just claim other [team] aren't experts. 2021-05-08 12:47:29 @benthompson Plus the social media is fueling a "teams" dynamic, where track records of one's own team members can be totally overlooked. I don't begrudge people being wrong, or even consistently wrong, given the situation, but it seems to be rarely acknowledged or impact one's evaluation. 2021-05-08 12:44:14 @benthompson In fairness, I'd say more of what happened is those who conflated "believe science" with "believe this set of experts [ahem, us] rather than the other set". Plus, of course the usual disciplinary divides. 2021-05-08 12:27:36 I learned much of this first from a virologist and infectious disease specialist in Japan, Dr. Oshitani who had everything—aerosols, presymptomatic transmission, clusters—nailed by February of 2020. For purposes messaging, this is it, from March 2020: https://t.co/lCHv0ZVHYK 2021-05-08 12:25:54 A @linseymarr thread from March 5, 2020. Look at how well it holds up. There are people across the world and across discipline working on all this, many before the pandemic, and in some countries they were listened to (early masking, cluster focus). https://t.co/BkQ7HxyFqp 2021-05-08 11:47:51 RT @ConvalescePress: Explains why the protests weren't huge super spreader events: out of doors and almost everyone wore masks 2021-05-08 04:31:36 RT @MackayIM: Why Did It Take So Long to Accept the Facts About Covid? https://t.co/vaSErH0C2m 2021-05-08 04:22:45 @AlexanderPayton That’s why they need to lead. Loudly. Can’t just update a page and not have a loud top-level presser and a campaign to explain what it does and doesn’t mean. 2021-05-08 04:20:17 @AmihaiGlazer @mattyglesias @ATabarrok Plus there’s substantial evidence overuse of bleach is harmful. I have a detector for such compounds now and some places were really really high, exactly after “deep cleaning”. Genuinely harmful especially if poorly ventilated. 2021-05-08 04:16:42 @OrinKerr Thank you. 2021-05-08 04:15:41 @AlexanderPayton Yeah. Definitely didn’t help. 2021-05-08 03:55:58 RT @RahulPKashyap: Given that this is now the current understanding, imagine what states in India are doing to those who will be forced to… 2021-05-08 03:09:18 Yes! Some of what we can try to do now, and for likely other respiratory diseases going forward, is not necessarily expensive, and some that is expensive is a better return for us than excessive hygiene theater and plexiglass and all the rest. And good for health in general! https://t.co/Man8hBO0MT 2021-05-08 02:53:54 @bilgeyesil1 ! It’s time! 2021-05-08 02:39:37 @michaelmina_lab @nytimes 2021-05-08 02:38:55 RT @Zathras3: Double executive bingo on this whole thread by @zeynep. So much of the US debate about the science of #COVID19 & 2021-05-08 02:38:05 @michaelmina_lab @nytimes Thank you! Tried to focus on the progress side. 2021-05-08 02:23:54 RT @SaskiaPopescu: ‘Belonging Is Stronger Than Facts’: The Age of Misinformation, HT @jessicamalaty- https://t.co/iPi0yrkzW0 2021-05-08 00:51:51 RT @DrAbdiMahamud: Great & 2021-05-07 23:25:00 @Hold2LLC @JenniferSey @mamasaurusMeg I’ll get back to that. That list is not at all valid. I haven’t forgotten. Will write at length. Well studied issue. But I agree don’t take my word for it, I will write longer. 2021-05-07 23:12:27 RT @janzilinsky: “if a web page is updated [with relevant updates about #COVID19] in the forest without the requisite fanfare, how will it… 2021-05-07 22:56:45 On that: the epidemiological record is clear. And the science explains why. Note that as I wrote, it’s not completely safe if you engaging close and prolonged contact among unvaccinated people. But it’s absolutely SO much safer. We need a very different approach to the outdoors https://t.co/stMtyfLJVd 2021-05-07 22:51:27 RT @AbraarKaran: The whole time I was reading this piece, this was the thought that was on my mind — & 2021-05-07 22:06:40 @corybe Thank you! 2021-05-07 21:53:11 @AhmedMedien Do you have a link? 2021-05-07 21:49:24 Aerosol scientists kept telling me that plexiglass barriers might be making things *worse* by blocking ventilation. Just out in Science. Desk shields associated with *increased* illness risk in schools. Closing playground? Also uptick. So many upshots. https://t.co/lcyt647Xkm https://t.co/JZs0CcdCO8 2021-05-07 21:37:48 RT @JordanFifer: How it started // how it’s going w/ @linseymarr https://t.co/hiS7a35W4b https://t.co/niVPsuKMeq 2021-05-07 21:36:32 @ChiefSciAdvisor Thank you! 2021-05-07 20:56:35 I have a growing databases detailing rules and restrictions around the world—to this day—that made sense from where we started—short-range respiratory droplets—but do not make sense at all, and are even counterproductive. Need to change that AND also emphasize what remains same. 2021-05-07 20:35:47 I want to add this here. Also, the story is really fascinating and much longer in terms of the sociology of science, standards of evidence, the scientific details and more, but we cut it to "only" about 5,000 words because that's already so long. https://t.co/KbVVhILmi1 2021-05-07 20:31:28 @corybe It's all now called "essays" when you do analyses. Thank you! :-D It was fact-checked within an inch of its life by a team. Pretty much every word is deeply documented. Also I have maybe there times the story, that could easily past similar fact-checking, but already so long! 2021-05-07 20:26:58 To get the significance of this, *just last week*, key UK infection control societies published a review with the same conflations/errors that CDC and WHO just moved towards correcting—and rated fomite and aerosol transmission (outside of medical procedures) as equally possible. https://t.co/xmMhCrcOBK 2021-05-07 20:09:37 Incredible week. First the WHO, now the CDC. It'll take work to have all this be heard, and correctly. Just today, I saw Canada is planning to close beaches "to protect against variants." It takes more than a few website updates to fix a year of messaging. https://t.co/HYSCgWOf71 2021-05-07 19:38:51 RT @EricTopol: Airborne transmission gets @WHO blessing a year late, @zeynep is on it! https://t.co/CtOBNhoUCz "The scientific wrangling, r… 2021-05-07 19:29:58 And... Wow. The New York Times is reporting that the CDC has just updated its descriptions of how COVID-19 is transmitted via aerosols. (Reading the CDC new version now). Eppure galleggia. https://t.co/8Xx0fHe8Oo https://t.co/yeYHu6yFV9 2021-05-07 19:09:41 It is *really* important for the WHO, the CDC and all the public health agencies to publicize this and lead because there are also a lot of misconceptions—some stemming from the same errors. Masks and distance are still important, for example, but need more context to evaluate. 2021-05-07 19:06:01 It's a long piece—and honestly, maybe I have maybe 10% of just the narrative in there, and maybe 2% of the history—let alone the fascinating science. I'm co-author on this peer-reviewed piece in The Lancet that explains some scientific details/issues. https://t.co/xPnnWfo75E https://t.co/Y557LUCwVK 2021-05-07 19:02:03 It's a huge advance, not a minor change. It explains so much of what went wrong and how to do better. We started with an incorrect theory of how COVID-19 transmits. One key error goes back a century. And it took a pandemic year to get to even this point. https://t.co/B9y2Mf6LC7 https://t.co/KDmPPUfu6M 2021-05-07 18:59:14 @RMConservative Absolute nonsense. Read the piece. You are behind the science here. 2021-05-07 18:48:55 This history goes back to scientists trying to get germ theory accepted and fighting (incorrect) folk theories of miasma—infection via stinky air—and they made some mistakes themselves along the way. Some froze into dogma. It took until this pandemic to, finally, start fixing it. 2021-05-07 18:41:42 The WHO just updated its page on how COVID-19 transmits. Those few sentences on aerosols represent one of the most crucial scientific advances of the pandemic. My NYT piece on the century-long history of the error, the year of delay—and what it means now. https://t.co/B9y2Mf6LC7 https://t.co/3b5K650nB4 2021-05-07 02:38:12 @LongDesertTrain @supermarioelia They might not have predicted the insanity. 2021-05-07 02:37:58 @ShaneBond77 @RDann15 @PaulMainwood No. That serosurvey and the model, in my view, is not at all reliable, and I do not think it was anywhere near that number because of the way it was sampled. Whatsoever. 2021-05-07 02:31:50 @GearoidReidy Still somewhat there at times... 2021-05-07 02:30:38 @j_g_allen Heh, thanks. Amazing how much mileage one can get out of "wait, this is off by a factor of three compared with every other study we had" and "oh let me read the short supplement" and "oh". 2021-05-06 21:41:48 @sdbaral @zchagla @supermarioelia @macleans 2021-05-06 21:28:12 @ariehkovler This isn't nuance, though. Too much credit. 2021-05-06 21:27:18 @sdbaral @zchagla @supermarioelia @macleans Heh, Stefan, thank you. But what new is there for me to say? That it's understandable for people to debate and worry about dose-sparing strategies but let's use the relatively extensive if imperfect data we've had for the past six months and read the method section of studies? 2021-05-06 21:22:37 @ariehkovler Yeah if one sees a number that is a about a third of what had been consistently reported for six months non-stop, one could at least stop and read the study and think for a minute on what it may mean. 2021-05-06 21:20:44 Speaking of, the study also does find that the (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccines were 97.4% (CI:92.2–99.5) effective against preventing severe outcomes (hospitalization and death) for all breakthrough cases, including for B.1.351 variant. https://t.co/NYCizsB0kz 2021-05-06 21:06:52 See more here: https://t.co/p60eTTPVtf 2021-05-06 21:06:35 @zchagla @supermarioelia *head desk* I can see people debating things like dose-sparing, sure, but yeah. 2021-05-06 21:04:51 (I still wish he had a proper trial on dose-sparing strategies so we'd have longer-term data, too but...) Let's not needlessly panic people who are in countries that use this strategy. But GOOD REMINDER: the first week or two after vaccination isn't post-vaccination at all. 2021-05-06 20:59:10 Before this gets out of hand... The first two weeks after a vaccine will include pre-vaccine infections PLUS the immune system takes some time. So "one-dose efficacy" can't be calculated without that info. A reporter can track down author's reported response? via @supermarioelia https://t.co/J62HEOeb94 https://t.co/PT1aTKrPUT 2021-05-06 15:11:33 @ZoeMcLaren Aaaw, thank you. I was so happy to see your great piece on exponential decay, and also nice to have an actual example to apply it to. (Hope will so apply to many more countries, too). We keep having either/or discussions when the combinations are so powerful because exponential.. 2021-05-06 13:14:17 @mammuthus Wow 2021-05-06 13:13:14 @JenniferNuzzo @ashishkjha 2021-05-06 13:02:09 For a great formal paper on what exponentials mean on the way up —with a thread explaining it— see below. Abstract: "For robust control, an intervention must be strong, early, and ideally sustained" aka throw whatever you have at it as early as possible. https://t.co/vjdy6o7Ski 2021-05-06 12:54:42 @RDann15 @PaulMainwood 74% with at least one dose. Wow. At this pace, they might be a very interesting test case once restrictions are lifted (which I know they also started a little earlier). 2021-05-06 12:50:56 Let's highlight this excellent piece by @ZoeMcLaren on the power of exponential *decay.* On the way up, waiting a week too long to act has disproportional terrible impact. On the way *down*, waiting just a bit more to relax has the opposite amazing effect. https://t.co/ONf84QmlVY https://t.co/O3TvHsnaYa 2021-05-06 12:42:16 Some charts from the UK where deaths are down by 99%. They have the NHS and high vaccine take-up. Their expert committee recommended delaying boosters to expand coverage. They also had a lengthy restricted period. Now getting ready to lift more restrictions and focus on boosters. https://t.co/UaL4xk7HxG 2021-05-05 14:51:26 @CarlosdelRio7 @FT And it may be a bellwether... In a region with less prior immunity. https://t.co/utbefgPgch 2021-05-05 12:02:16 @gregggonsalves Congratulations! What a lovely story, wild-type Gregg. 2021-05-05 02:22:09 @zchagla @KindrachukJason Not sure I believe the Israel cases mean much though. Eight cases. Not clear if independent. Will wait for paper. https://t.co/MEjhX6ZBop https://t.co/AqC5X6eA2R 2021-05-05 02:16:34 @zchagla @KindrachukJason Been wondering too. Have some speculations but not yet seen any way to try to test them. https://t.co/RYKf9PqB4n 2021-05-05 01:41:28 @zchagla Incredible, isn't it? Parts of all this are so devastating and tragic, but I just look at this, too, and can't help but be amazed. This is better and faster than anything I had imagined—and a lot of people who were actual experts on vaccines were much more pessimistic! 2021-05-05 01:15:55 @ai6yrham @RossSheingold @NateSilver538 Here's the situation in UK. Schools are open, that variant is dominant but this is what's going on. https://t.co/gauLxrofKq 2021-05-05 01:14:31 @ai6yrham @RossSheingold @NateSilver538 I'm all for watching everything carefully, including this particular variant, but: *of course* proportionally speaking, the percentages are going to increase from those under 16 as those 16+ get vaccinated. This variant has been studied a lot in UK, no increase seen among kids. 2021-05-04 20:47:26 Yes! I think the obvious importance of the crisis in India (hospital collapse, its size, and the way it is integrated globally) plus the Modi factor has obscured what looks to be a broader crisis. Plus, any country that has yet had success is *more* vulnerable now. Less immunity. https://t.co/0DhuFh0Lur https://t.co/TFmwM5DkLK 2021-05-04 18:31:16 @NAChristakis Nooo 2021-05-03 16:05:54 @TerrinaMajnoona Has little to do with it. These are not the same. 2021-05-03 15:16:36 Also we know antibodies persist 6+ years for MERS (another pesky novel coronavirus). Can’t assume this will directly correspond to SARS-CoV-2 (still early) but SARS and MERS are the two closest examples we have. https://t.co/pjmSSQxZxq 2021-05-03 15:07:47 RT @LaurenWeberHP: Is your child in a classroom with “unproven” air cleaner technology? Our investigation found over 2,000 schools acro… 2021-05-03 15:04:42 @skamille You tell me. Doesn't distinguish outdoors and indoors which is my beef with all this https://t.co/QnuXNKToMY https://t.co/TkMjaUCTXt 2021-05-03 15:01:48 @samuelmehr That's an incredibly wrong-headed way to go about it, though. Ignoring apartment buildings, for one, and banning people from the *safest* possible way to do something that's a deep human need as if that's going to help them not do it in less visible but less safe ways? Nuts. 2021-05-03 14:55:43 Clearer on the news. The key for me is that I’m still seeing all sorts of outdoor stuff being banned and *curfews* around the world. (DC just banned *standing* along with dancing in outdoor weddings if I am reading their order correctly). https://t.co/Sab5wUlY3w 2021-05-03 14:29:13 @richardpointer @burnsy20790591 Yeah everything but transmission without symptoms seems to have been observed back then. (I used to use SARS as a teaching example so was familiar, and when I saw "atypical clinical presentation/asymptomatic transmission" late Jan 2020 in NEJM etc., I thought ouuch, here we go.) 2021-05-03 14:18:09 @Incindery1 Not at all clear to me we're seeing massive reinfections in either place. We never had good serosurveys for either. 2021-05-03 14:06:54 Hah. People who recovered from SARS (the 2003 one!) showed immune response (T cells) to SARS even after 17 years. (May or may not apply to SARS-CoV-2 but interesting). https://t.co/UW5sAWgSPv https://t.co/yW3G0gJnol 2021-05-03 13:57:45 I'm not really concerned if individuals chose to be more cautious—and we should not judge, and everyone has their own circumstances, none of our business. I'm concerned because we've been shutting down the safest activities for a whole year, and not supporting those at real risk. 2021-05-03 13:52:52 So it's tempting to say who cares, but when in this context—a year of shutting down outdoor access, ignoring risks to workers while calling them "essential" and blaming the victims while shaming people for safe activities—it matters. If the rest weren't there, yeah who cares. 2021-05-03 13:50:55 @JodyShenn No because we spent a year misinforming people about risk, and the consequences have been dire. 2021-05-03 13:50:27 The bigger issue is mandates also signal and educate about risk. If misinformed, it's harder direct resources to vulnerable populations under real risk, i.e. how we spent a year worrying about beaches while workers—many poorer and minority—disproportionately suffered and died. 2021-05-03 13:46:33 I suspect these will change but even without vaccination, outdoor spread was rarer and confined to prolonged, close contact (under one's control) and people can get vaccinated and/or wear a mask themselves. Mandates make sense when risk is high and individual protections limited. https://t.co/EWbodCyNaH 2021-05-03 03:32:58 @michaelmina_lab < 2021-05-02 16:05:29 @CarolForden @RachelBitecofer ""Outdoor transmission is very low outside of prolonged close contact—kinda how he harasses strangers." I can't help with reading comprehension. Have a great day. 2021-05-02 15:55:45 @CarolForden @RachelBitecofer "Outdoor transmission is very low outside of prolonged close contact—kinda how he harasses strangers." 2021-05-02 13:57:13 @Lequtis007 @SlykhuisJoshua @crashtacky @RachelBitecofer Ireland found about that number—0.1% of all transmission, maybe 1% if you assume undercounting. Most outdoor transmission cases are places like construction sites--prolonged close contact. I can't keep proving the most basic facts a google search away. https://t.co/w6rgRgwjx7 2021-05-02 13:55:53 @Lequtis007 @SlykhuisJoshua @crashtacky @RachelBitecofer It is so well-known that it is uncontroversial at this point. Here's an article I co-authored (peer-reviewed) and that has references. We used the upper upper boundary in the piece, but the raw numbers are between 0.1% to 1% for outdoors. https://t.co/Vh049FTAx5 2021-05-02 12:25:18 @PatientlyRushed @TheRideshareGuy @bengardnernyc @FLman1980 https://t.co/e2aL1AHJ47 2021-05-02 12:23:27 @Goldbirdwing https://t.co/bQGbiRop6B 2021-05-02 06:02:05 @RachelBitecofer @crashtacky Have you seen this guys work? He harasses family groups minding their own business at a giant beach, camera crew in tow. If there could be a risk there, it’s him. Also I wouldn’t recommend a party at height of a surge but.. Not a single such confirmed cluster globally—whole year. 2021-05-02 05:47:31 @crashtacky @RachelBitecofer Many beaches are in large cities where people live. If you want to advocate for closing bars, by all means. Go ahead. Harassing strangers engaging in the safest possible recreation in a pandemic because of assumed and not even mentioned auxiliary activity is harmful to health. 2021-05-02 05:41:22 @marutinb I’m glad it was useful to you. 2021-05-02 05:36:25 @TwoWarthog Public restrooms are not prolonged talking at close length. 2021-05-02 05:35:37 @RachelBitecofer No we don’t. If you mean auxiliary activities like indoor bars, by all means go there. Is there even a single beach transmission? That air and wind and UV? That space? 2021-05-02 05:27:47 It’s been more than a year since I wrote my first article on why outdoors is much safer and we should open parks/beaches to help lessen deaths. Not a single known beach cluster. Outdoor transmission is very low outside of prolonged close contact—kinda how he harasses strangers. https://t.co/8x5NUwgXLg 2021-05-02 05:18:59 @tom_paine1737 @SpecialPuppy1 Been more than a year since my first article 2021-05-02 03:55:50 @MatthewDavidH Yeah. Exponentials and Aerosols is the book title for this pandemic. 2021-05-01 15:10:44 @jmhaigh Can we be concerned about where the crisis is raging, now, rather than future speculative threats? 2021-05-01 15:09:31 @PaGeDown1121 Exact opposite conclusion though. Global death rate is low to the degree we act decisively, and keep it under check. 2021-05-01 15:08:23 I don't have much more to add to the urgent calls out there, for the world to act. We don't have the full causal picture yet, and there is a grave danger this catastrophic, exponential explosion in India will also occur in countries in the region also with low vaccination rates. 2021-05-01 15:04:34 Intellectually, I see that epidemic curve and it's clear how much tragedy is already baked-in, and how urgent it is for us to act, now. Emotionally, I can't think straight about it. I can't even look at the curve without sheer horror, let alone the news stories or the pictures. 2021-05-01 15:01:05 @Bram_Rochwerg @zchagla @paimadhu @KrutikaKuppalli THANK YOU! 2021-05-01 15:00:50 In February of 2020 (a lifetime ago) I got into pandemic writing, mostly just to say that the pandemic outcomes are not fixed. ("Flattening the curve" or even getting ready for mitigations wasn't yet in our mainstream vocabulary then, at least in the US). https://t.co/NFInPmnPY6 https://t.co/Y2xYHhxsBu 2021-05-01 14:56:12 @ian_mckelvey @WesleyMouch3 That's because the United States has the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act which guarantees *universal health care* for life threatening illness or injury, though. For overall health care, where you'd rather be isn't that clear. 2021-05-01 14:54:26 @Aiims1742 It's so so terrible. I started writing about the pandemic in February of 2020, simply to make that point: that the outcomes are not fixed. (Flattening the curve or getting ready wasn't yet in our mainstream vocabulary then, at least in the US). https://t.co/NFInPmnPY6 https://t.co/KrJDdoQhsp 2021-05-01 14:47:12 @mrgrimm I'm so so sorry. 2021-05-01 14:46:42 @zchagla @Bram_Rochwerg @paimadhu @KrutikaKuppalli It would be really helpful. Plasma is being used indiscriminately in many places. (I cannot measure how often, obviously, but I know it's happening and awareness of this downside seems to be little to none). 2021-05-01 14:45:39 @ian_mckelvey @WesleyMouch3 Also, we have about ten times per capita income of India. We do however, worse outcomes than much less wealthy UK that has universal healthcare. If you want to make your argument, it's not just that this isn't the time, that isn't your example. https://t.co/DrXJz8VFLg 2021-05-01 14:25:08 This is important. The fatality rate is not fixed, it's a function of medical care. The calamitous exponential growth in India combined with collapse of even basic resources is a humanitarian catastrophe. It's so horrible that I can't think clearly about it. https://t.co/CcMld7zvd7 2021-05-01 14:13:37 @VincentRK Yeah. We are about to find out the fatality rate for this pathogen outside of medical care and it's just so heartbreaking that I can't even think about it clearly, especially knowing how much is already horrifically baked-in. I don't know what to say honestly, just I'm so sorry. 2021-05-01 13:50:07 @VincentRK This is so terrible. Emotionally, I'm finding it very hard to wrap my mind around what that curve means, because intellectually, we know what it means even in the most well-resourced countries, even if we flew in all the vaccines tomorrow. What a catastrophe. I'm so sorry. 2021-05-01 13:38:09 @zchagla @paimadhu @KrutikaKuppalli @Bram_Rochwerg Great. I hope they don't just say "not useful" but strongly point out this issue as well. In many LMIC countries "not useful" isn't enough to stop widespread use if seen as "can't hurt" especially if there aren't many alternative effective therapeutics. Need strong language. 2021-04-30 18:56:21 @drkuehnert Of course. That is both justified and reasonable, for all variants of concern and interest, without needing to misrepresent tiny fluctuations in non-random samples. https://t.co/5JGrdEgThL 2021-04-30 17:42:44 @skepticalzebra Or... I mean, read the study, at least. This isn't a lack of expertise/incorrect expertise problem (though that can occur, and as someone who is now cooperating with lots of people across fields, I am sensitive to that). https://t.co/q0x8ToX77n 2021-04-30 17:41:11 @skepticalzebra Yeah, I know. People keep pushing back and saying it's because he has the wrong doctorate, but come on. I have the wronger doctorate. This isn't always that hard. https://t.co/qrV5wYVLne 2021-04-30 17:35:10 I don't understand this credentialism, to be honest. I'm not an epidemiologist, and Eric has doctorate in epidemiology even if he specialized in nutritional impacts. This is barely third grade math here, if that, so the exact doctorate isn't the problem. https://t.co/neUyjmYtGe 2021-04-30 17:24:22 I'm all for keeping an eye on variants—I wrote an article warning about B.1.1.7 last year when it became clear it really was more transmissible and dangerous—but looking at a relative increase in a tiny, nonrandom sample and calling it a "surge" isn't it. https://t.co/JileC9S1CF 2021-04-30 16:24:58 @parul_sehgal I'm sorry. Best wishes to all of them, as inadequate as words are. 2021-04-30 14:30:17 Oh, come on. It went up from 2.6% of sequenced cases to 3.4%—essentially 47 in one week and then *also* 47 next week, but the total already non-random specimens went down so a slight fluctuation in the percentages.) It sounds scarierwhen you say up 30% in one week, I guess? https://t.co/ljkaVVfCnP https://t.co/9xtkpLew9t 2021-04-30 12:54:07 RT @alexgibneyfilm: @JessicaJ1225 @PaulSaxMD @zeynep Recommend this article. Risk of outdoor transmission EXTREMELY low, particularly for s… 2021-04-30 12:51:20 @DrAparnaBole @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-04-30 12:35:46 @astupple It happens so much to me but it's not to flatter me! It helps them. Many on the inside know better than any of us that they could do better, but have a variety of obstacles within. It's not always easy to make things work well. Substantive criticism can help them improve things. 2021-04-30 12:23:25 @astupple Thank you! Yes, the occasional "you are against [important but not perfect] institution" because of criticism as if institutions don't get better exactly through constructive but substantive criticism. Funny enough I usually get emails thanking me from *within* the institution. 2021-04-30 00:41:44 *cases 2021-04-30 00:41:08 @ChristinaGrada1 @karenvaites @DrLeanaWen I don’t think we need to have this negativity. I like many of her recent pieces. We don’t always have to agree, but when we do, maybe we can stick to the agreement part? 2021-04-30 00:38:21 The correct number is *four* caes among the vaccinated, not 41. Also there’s no vaccine approved for children. A few breakthrough cases are expected. (They also tend to be milder or asymptomatic). Yesterday, they had zero deaths, a total of 100 cases and 0.3% positivity rate. https://t.co/vbRcJBaslU 2021-04-29 20:29:40 @AxelMerk @DrLeanaWen @ScottGottliebMD Agree. It’s absolutely a valid consideration (how could “only the sick” wear a mask at the beginning of a terrible pandemic?) but it should me made explicit (“vaccines work very well but indoor places cannot police masks by vaccination status so we’re all wearing them for now”). 2021-04-29 19:22:29 @AxelMerk @DrLeanaWen @ScottGottliebMD Thank you! You'd be surprised at the number of people with degrees in medical fields who say "it was clear enough to me!" (not the audience!) or "why not be more supportive of them" (as if that's a favor to the CDC). They did take over at a tough time, but we can expect more. 2021-04-29 18:55:10 RT @DrLeanaWen: Wise commentary from @zeynep as usual: "The CDC needs clearer, science-based guidelines that inform and empower us. Peopl… 2021-04-29 18:20:35 RT @PaulSaxMD: From @zeynep: "Science supports a simple guideline that allows for the removal of all mask mandates outdoors, except for unv… 2021-04-29 17:47:14 RT @sdbaral: Honoured to write in @bmj_latest with incredible @zeynep & 1) Outdoor transmission is rare 2) No int… 2021-04-29 17:03:32 @j_g_allen That’s an amazing story! 2021-04-29 17:02:48 RT @j_g_allen: Incredible paper and team tracing the history of the 6' rule and droplet/aerosol issues. Amazing how thin the basis for some… 2021-04-29 16:37:00 As our BMJ piece with @mugecevik and @sdbaral highlights focusing on low but visible risks (outdoors/beaches) is a serious threat to equity and effective mitigations. Most of those infected, sick and dying around the world are poorer frontline workers in workplaces. Indoors. 2021-04-29 16:29:22 @michaelmina_lab Yes, there is a way in which MD expertise and experience (crucial in its own context) doesn't translate into the public health/community side, but we've conflated respecting people's (absolutely very valuable) service with applying the correct lens to the problem at hand. 2021-04-29 16:26:27 In the above BMJ piece, we do have more details about the sociology and trade-offs of mask mandates for this phase. For the earlier phase, see our PNAS paper. For aerosol/mitigation connection: our piece in The Lancet is also below. https://t.co/xPnnWfo75E https://t.co/AxT25iIX5r 2021-04-29 16:07:27 @KBibbinsDomingo Thank you! (And also, it means a lot coming from you.) 2021-04-29 14:13:13 RT @KBibbinsDomingo: Wanna know when to wear a mask & Wanna know what clear communication at the intersection of science & 2021-04-29 13:51:33 RT @EricTopol: A lot on in the past couple of days but @zeynep's new lucid essay @TheAtlantic clears the air https://t.co/QabVWiAEfd htt… 2021-04-29 13:29:57 @tehoriman @FT__Dan Yes, good point. Though since this graph is by age, I don't know how many shots each group corresponds to in the first place. It would be good to see that: i.e. is the drop real but a big proportional drop from a small number? Something to watch. 2021-04-29 13:06:40 @michaelmina_lab Incredible! (Also, I can't believe that you are still having to explain individual diagnostic tools vs. community screening. Gallows humor version is we enter the next epidemic/pandemic with 10/10 room ratings, and you don't have to explain the whys of rapid community screening). 2021-04-29 12:27:16 @notdred @MattZeitlin Isn’t it? We’ve been remarkably good on some aspects. Age priority but a lot of equity outreach especially by location. Put teachers as first essential worker group and passed bill to open elementary schools, but more freedom locally for middle and higher. Now vaccine benchmark. 2021-04-29 12:22:48 @tomgara Actually I’m surprised it’s not a seven-figure job. 2021-04-29 12:16:46 @FT__Dan Couldn’t some of this be the pause itself? No J& 2021-04-29 11:57:25 I want to post our BMJ debate on outdoor masks, with @javid_lab @mugecevik @sdbaral Highlights from @EricTopol. This was written last week—before the many recent pieces: that's why they're not referenced! I wish there was more space for such discussions! https://t.co/ELL5lMZ4ut https://t.co/VkP5MBT555 2021-04-29 11:53:17 @EricTopol Also stealing your highlights for the BMJ debate. How do you do it? I just want a database of the articles you post with the highlights as separate notes. (@pinboard, make that happen and take my money). 2021-04-29 03:00:21 @shabbytigers Thank you! 2021-04-29 03:00:12 @KimKSak That was indoors. https://t.co/TgVrQPDtOQ 2021-04-29 02:34:39 @brucefloyd Thank you! 2021-04-29 01:33:21 @David_Rasho @WesPegden Except I spell out exactly what I mean in that very paragraph. 2021-04-29 01:22:26 @WesPegden Encourage feelings? That's not what I wrote whatsoever. 2021-04-29 01:18:37 @fastbreconomics @ImDavidDunn Also the very screenshot says the opposite of "doesn't occur". Although, yes, rare and paired with prolonged contact, as explained in the article. 2021-04-29 00:53:34 @EricTopol Thank you. 2021-04-29 00:51:53 @gershonmarx I don’t understand why the vaccination status of strangers or mask mandates are relevant to your children? 2021-04-29 00:14:09 @kxmalakhan 2021-04-29 00:13:58 RT @fikagirl: Excellent piece “We wear masks for 3 reasons: to protect ourselves from people who might be infected, to protect others from… 2021-04-29 00:11:55 @gershonmarx Did you read the piece? 2021-04-29 00:11:29 @pkkilkel @cityofdayton Why? 2021-04-28 23:21:56 @markadams44 @mugecevik @sdbaral @javid_lab Thank you! 2021-04-28 22:53:11 And here’s a BMJ debate on outdoor masks alone, with @mugecevik @sdbaral @javid_lab and me. https://t.co/3MdsbwzHbH 2021-04-28 22:02:02 @MoNscience @SaskiaPopescu I’m glad it worked for you. I disagree, and by the time you get to Trevor Noah ranting about it maybe it’s not as clear as that. https://t.co/WwOY0KESvD 2021-04-28 21:54:41 @wsbgnl *NHS 2021-04-28 21:42:16 @PrasadKasibhat1 @DukeU We also need justifications for the rules. It’s been more than a year—there should be more logic to all of it based on what we now know. 2021-04-28 20:33:24 I get a lot of "why not an abundance of caution"? I'm temperamentally and intellectually on the "precautionary principal is crucial" and "exponentials are cruel" side but after more than a year of data, we can end up misleading about indoor risks through unwarranted caution. 2021-04-28 20:25:34 And why are we still doing this? There needs to be loud and clear communication about all this. https://t.co/EkGrdd81Sv 2021-04-28 20:06:37 @pavlovs_doggy @torrHL sigh 2021-04-28 20:06:10 @ProfCharlesHaas @DFisman I know that a lot of us have rediscovered Kuhn lately, but Imre Lakatos later distinguished between progressive research programs (like Kuhn's paradigm) and "degenerating" ones—one key difference being if it can predict new explanations/facts as well. Acne, too, explained! Cool! https://t.co/Eo6FnCSsXT 2021-04-28 19:47:59 @DFisman Parsimonious and compatible with the observed evidence base. Besides, it's not like there are any competing, coherent theories that incorporate biophysics, epidemiology and virology while being compatible with the world we observe. 2021-04-28 19:28:51 @DFisman Yes. Outdoors, there are little invisible creatures that shoot invisible darts at droplets, while indoors, these creatures—no doubt upset with their captivity—instead carry the droplets further. They also like to go with air currents indoors: it feels cooler on their unicorn. 2021-04-28 14:52:54 @linseymarr @bellwak @washingtonpost Just reading the study or taking five minutes with any of the scientists working on this for a long time could have cleared it all up. Or the slightest familiarity with the epi record! Or a bit of common sense! Who'd rather be right next to the person than 60 feet away? 2021-04-28 12:46:31 Oh my goodness, STOP! That study—a model—did not find that distance offers "no protection". The model *assumed* the air was continuously and completely mixed in an enclosed space! That's not how real life works. Indoors, air does mix *over time* but also virus loses infectivity. https://t.co/cbsnPGKuZo 2021-04-28 02:48:48 @mjb302 Bagels. 2021-04-28 02:48:10 @PrasadKasibhat1 Nooo 2021-04-28 02:44:13 RT @DFisman: Improving school ventilation infrastructure isn't just a covid control measure...it's an investment in academic performance an… 2021-04-27 22:23:38 For clarity, this is how it went down. And also for clarity, I was just bemused by how “my kid said” Twitter actually happened to me. I wouldn’t use him as an example.(Though he thinks I should, because he thinks I’m wrong and he’d win the debate). https://t.co/pPICCUSpcY 2021-04-27 21:21:03 @bnjd18 Yellow fever or malaria. If you have any original research or primary sources, I would both appreciate it and would be happy to compensate you for your effort and time. (Also yeay to vaccination). 2021-04-27 21:07:19 @AdrienneRoyer Yeah I wouldn’t. More joking about it. 2021-04-27 21:02:00 @ariehkovler I did not. For what it’s worth I hadn’t randomly brought up outdoor mask mandates. I got chastised for briefly pulling down my mask to unlock my phone to look at a map for directions, and tried to defend myself. 2021-04-27 20:34:46 It was kind of cool testing out my arguments! 2021-04-27 20:25:10 (It really happened but this is more a joke about “my kid” Twitter). 2021-04-27 20:21:45 Yesterday, I had a chat with my 12-year old where he objected to lifting outdoor mask mandates (in a park), invoked the precautionary principle (well, didn't know its name) and then insisted to enter a crowded shop "because we can physically distance inside". If I write a piece: 2021-04-27 19:25:22 @mattyglesias The best part of today's update was the long-term care facilities. Vaccinated residents had been banned even from visits from their vaccinated spouses... That's been a long time coming and on the late side in my opinion—especially given how much time matters for this group. 2021-04-27 16:51:40 (All three are excellent resources for media). Our piece is longer but for my part: I think people can be advised to wear masks outdoors for prolonged encounters at close distance, especially if unvaccinated and/or if talking/yelling but restrictive mandates are not necessary. 2021-04-27 16:47:59 A good step, that could go further. I have a forthcoming piece on this with @mugecevik and @sdbaral (in BMJ) arguing for removing outdoor mask mandates (should be out tomorrow!). Also see below my quote to @PaulSaxMD earlier for his piece in the NEJM journal watch. https://t.co/yiEKpCq48r https://t.co/5mdSyQaKel 2021-04-27 16:25:32 Thread has many aerosol scientists. Our paper below explains why distance matters for airborne transmission. TBH, this is the cost of global health agencies not stepping up to provide correct transmission explanations. Misinformation thrives in a vacuum. https://t.co/GY2mdR7Zgc 2021-04-27 16:22:32 Enough already. This headline is dangerously misleading. Distance does a lot of work, even indoors, but if the location is enclosed then, OVER TIME, the air will mix to farther away places (though viruses also lose infectivity over time). @Marianne_Guenot https://t.co/1vrjErIUxB https://t.co/oToyKAIgEF 2021-04-27 13:52:16 @VincentRK Yes. Exponentials are so cruel. I am so so sorry. 2021-04-27 13:49:07 @ktpiano1 @NoNonNyet @Parisire That is just not true. Every reputable scientists includes potentially immune folks in their calculations. I can't speak for Twitter folks, but this is not something anyone serious ignores. 2021-04-27 13:48:21 Meaning let's not do things like this. Just ask @wanderer_jasnah or someone else... :-D https://t.co/q0x8ToX77n 2021-04-27 13:45:31 @wanderer_jasnah Oh I found it. Yikes okay. 2021-04-27 13:40:29 Quick note: if you see a SARS-CoV-2 study in mice, the issue might not just be @justsaysinmice, but that it's transgenic mice, engineered to express ACE2. See below thread on why even more caution is required to project neurological results to humans. Well, more like don't. https://t.co/TtXSCiFv5o 2021-04-27 13:31:20 @wanderer_jasnah What now? I remember the last one. Zombie brain infection threads all around. 2021-04-27 03:29:33 @VincentRK I’m sorry 2021-04-27 00:56:47 @samuelmehr @TheLancet @DFisman Thank you! 2021-04-26 23:37:44 See whole thread! https://t.co/OjXx7L4zkb 2021-04-26 22:48:03 @cooljamm55 The paper explicitly explains why masks and distancing are crucial and powerful, exactly because of how aerosols behave. 2021-04-26 21:54:42 This doesn’t make any sense. Of course vaccines have everything to do with it. The correct point would be to say keeping up mitigations just a bit more really helps the downturn: exponential threats turn into exponential decay on the way down. But vaccines are powerful. https://t.co/4gNbfhLPzh 2021-04-26 19:29:23 RT @AP: AP Exclusive: U.S. to begin sharing up to 60 million AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses with rest of the world after federal safety… 2021-04-26 13:24:04 (muting thread because my head space is clearly someplace else these days——but I just wanted to flag this). 2021-04-26 13:14:07 Multiple "crypto exchanges" in Turkey are turning out to have been operating like ponzi schemes (the crypto "coin" market in Turkey isn't tiny:2 billion in trade daily). The how-to-hold the coins/how to protect against fraud question is, predictably, turning out not to be minor. https://t.co/gnFZ3uObPy 2021-04-25 21:15:54 @EpiEllie @DFisman Yeah... 2021-04-25 13:27:40 @CathNoakes @PrasadKasibhat1 @ShellyMBoulder @jljcolorado @linseymarr @ProfCharlesHaas Yeah, even cracked open a bit, no? Door open occasionally? What they call "natural ventilation" is essentially what people would understand to mean "poor or no ventilation"—i.e. everything is closed and this is the natural leakage. It's "natural ventilation" in an enclosed space. 2021-04-25 00:18:43 See these this three tweets for more on the problem with the headline/framing that @kprather88 @linseymarr @jljcolorado @j_g_allen tried to explain among many others (out and about lost track of the many who tried). https://t.co/tQ1EpZvhZL 2021-04-25 00:05:14 Leading aerosol/ventilation scientist after another has tried to get CNBC to correct the dangerously misleading headline and framing. Still no go. Distance of course matters, but isn’t 100% protective in a poorly-ventilated space over time. Shouldn’t be this hard. https://t.co/Xj7FTOx7Yb 2021-04-24 23:40:10 RT @kprather88: Thank you @mvankerkhove for calling attention to properly fitting masks and ventilation! Have spoken with many people in In… 2021-04-24 22:51:19 @CathNoakes @PrasadKasibhat1 @ShellyMBoulder @jljcolorado @linseymarr @ProfCharlesHaas Yeah? Will go check the supplements. 2021-04-24 22:05:08 @Ur_A_Grossman @linseymarr @jljcolorado @NBCNews @MSNBC @CNBC You have a link? 2021-04-24 22:04:43 @ProfCharlesHaas @PrasadKasibhat1 @ShellyMBoulder @jljcolorado @linseymarr Yes! 2021-04-24 20:19:32 @nothinggood Yep 2021-04-24 19:51:13 RT @arinbasu: If there is doubt as to how gatherings lead to superspreader events, and why are they important for #COVID19 , pl read @AdamJ… 2021-04-24 16:53:11 RT @CorsIAQ: 1/ Inhalation dose occurs in both the near field (close contact) and far field in the same indoor space. It is reasonable to a… 2021-04-24 12:59:07 @PrasadKasibhat1 @ShellyMBoulder @jljcolorado @linseymarr @ProfCharlesHaas (Explaining dose-response would be so much more helpful than focusing on an absolute minimum dose, anyway. More accurate *and* more informative). 2021-04-24 12:55:37 @PrasadKasibhat1 @ShellyMBoulder @jljcolorado @linseymarr @ProfCharlesHaas Yeah. I don't see the point of presenting that as the "minimum dose." In fact, here it is in the paper itself. https://t.co/z9UkmDCKZT 2021-04-24 01:31:33 @phylogenomics @linseymarr @macroliter Especially given the downsides of that headline. 2021-04-24 00:35:08 RT @linseymarr: @CNBC Please fix this headline, as the model they used ASSUMES that the room is instantaneously and continuously well-mixed… 2021-04-24 00:30:05 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC We’re not quibbling. It’s wrong to tell people distance never matters. https://t.co/tQ1EpZdH8d 2021-04-24 00:28:00 And here’s another leading scientist on airborne transmission. https://t.co/G5258spWPi 2021-04-24 00:27:01 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC Another leading scientist on airborne transmission. https://t.co/G5258spWPi 2021-04-24 00:00:29 RT @jljcolorado: Agree with @zeynep. Distance is about the most importance measure for an airborne pathogen (see diagram below from @linsey… 2021-04-23 23:41:01 @BradSiroky @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC “Model says that 6 feet isn’t completely protective in an enclosed space if the air mixes evenly throughout the room over time”. 2021-04-23 23:19:17 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC I am a co-author on this paper, and can refer you to almost anyone who's been publishing in this field—the very people who've been showing why the six-feet rule isn't enough by itself or 100% protective, but also that doesn't mean distance is irrelevant. https://t.co/2gfSE5Q6hV 2021-04-23 23:14:55 @Poppendieck @PrasadKasibhat1 @linseymarr @jljcolorado Exactly. The kind of thing you can explain—including what well-mixed means and the time component, rather than headlining "6 feet and 60 feet are the same". So irresponsible. Can't convince the editor though. She's saying they're just quoting the authors. https://t.co/6osL239Ub3 2021-04-23 23:12:36 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC You can find legalistic reasons on why you can just quote them, or you can do the responsible thing & 2021-04-23 23:09:36 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC You can't just run with that, without checking with other scientists in the field on whether that's a justified conclusion and headline, with all due respect to the math model with a well-mixed room assumption from two people who have never before published on the topic. 2021-04-23 23:03:27 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC It's not their "opinions", it's the overwhelming if not the complete consensus of the field of people who actually publish on this topic and have for a long time. Again, your model is a "well-mixed" room. If you want to keep a dangerously misleading headline up, I can't stop you. 2021-04-23 23:01:02 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC That headline is misleading and dangerous, and there are an increasing number of scientists who've published in this very field telling you this in this thread and elsewhere. I read the article, it does NOT REFLECT the well-mixed assumption which is crucial. 2021-04-23 22:58:47 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC A good many people in this field, who acknowledge and have published on airborne transmission for years, are in this thread explaining the problem. I could recommend more. Could you check with them and others before telling people that a life-saving mitigation is useless? 2021-04-23 22:56:52 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC It's not okay to put such a big claim in the headline with nobody else consulted even if, as you say, two MIT professors who have not published in this field before (with all due respect to their model) told you that's what their study means: that distance doesn't matter at all. 2021-04-23 22:53:53 @Dawn_Kopecki @RichMendezCNBC Maybe you should talk to some people who've been publishing in this very field for years? Even if they told you that, it is a dangerous, misleading headline to put there that you should check with others (not me!). This is not some empty science field. 2021-04-23 22:52:15 @seth_parker Yeah that's true in that we see such cases for sure, but for most practical guidelines it makes sense to start with "pay attention to distance and ventilation" and explain the mechanism correctly.. 2021-04-23 17:07:19 @Edwin_D_Rios @BStulberg @edgyshiba @cynduja @MotherJones Thank you! Didn't want such an important topic to be marred by a typo. 2021-04-23 15:05:35 @BStulberg @edgyshiba @Edwin_D_Rios @cynduja @MotherJones Could also just be a typo. Happens. 2021-04-23 14:15:46 @talmonsmith @EricKlinenberg Thanks. I follow this number so I noticed. Maybe it’s a typo? I tweeted at the authors. It’s such an important topic and I’m glad they wrote about it. I’m sure they’ll update and we can reshare. 2021-04-23 13:50:50 @Edwin_D_Rios @cynduja @MotherJones Can you source or check the highlighted statement? I share the dismay at the terrible inequities, but I'm not seeing that number even in your chart, or, more importantly, in the state dashboard? https://t.co/Im4X6kiNus https://t.co/KPGyF8SWg4 2021-04-23 13:44:15 @talmonsmith @EricKlinenberg The inequities are very very real and appalling but those numbers are nowhere near reality, according to Michigan's own dashboard. You can even eyeball it from the very chart in that article but that chart is also wrong. https://t.co/Im4X6kiNus 2021-04-23 13:01:40 @AaronRichterman Afraid to look. Wow . 2021-04-23 12:54:38 @chriswweller It all makes sense, no? :-D 2021-04-23 12:31:23 @drkaanyl Bir site Lancet makalemizi Türkçeye çevirmiş. Türkiye'de sokağa çıkma yasağı ile herkes evlerde, apartmanlarda maalesef. En azından havalandırma konusunda uyarı gerekiyor. https://t.co/BjUcegiIL2 2021-04-23 12:24:41 RT @drkaanyl: Önemli bir uyarı: Uzun zamandır #coronavirus 'un damlacık yolu ile bulaşmasının yanında havada asılı kalarak ve havada dolaşa… 2021-04-23 04:04:01 @johnbates Thank you! 2021-04-23 03:02:18 @ogibuntens Thank you. It does fit with my themes! 2021-04-23 03:01:19 @chriswweller It’s my coinage, but it seems straightforward. 2021-04-23 02:57:51 @anadromy Happy to help ruin it further! 2021-04-23 02:16:59 @Antifauxpas Sounds like someone who likes me bribed you? But thank you for the kind words. 2021-04-23 02:15:06 @KadkhodaKamran @EricTopol @CDCMMWR I mean, I know all this is not a secret to medical professionals, but I think it's necessary context for evaluating this trial. By the way, I did not see the three pneumonia cases among the vaccinated in the report? 2021-04-23 02:10:58 @ProphetinaSuit I'm so sorry. 2021-04-23 02:10:20 @KadkhodaKamran @EricTopol @CDCMMWR I actually wrote a longer piece explaining all of that. It is, of course, tragic but the population is very relevant here, including the fact the man who passed away wasn't just vaccinated, it was *also* a re-infection. (Two hospitalizations btw). https://t.co/YiLLqp1eIS https://t.co/Stqh9OXjFt 2021-04-23 01:28:35 @macroliter https://t.co/fuoIwIfbs6 2021-04-23 01:18:47 @EricTopol @CDCMMWR Thank you. 2021-04-23 01:15:47 Well, here's my piece about sociological versus psychological storytelling. Game of Thrones is the vehicle! Spoilers, of course. Essentially: “Unhappy is the land that needs a hero.” (Yeah, that's why I think it is relevant to our current moment as well). https://t.co/gxX5hsdH6I https://t.co/IgxalhOpnS 2021-04-23 01:12:55 @JasonGilbert9 Yeah, Wire is almost the classic example. 2021-04-23 01:10:59 @megcwachs Yep! 2021-04-23 00:01:53 RT @andrew_croxford: I won’t post but there are some videos of the scenes in India which are just horrifying. COVID has at least two IFRs… 2021-04-22 23:46:05 @trishgreenhalgh @LadyScorcher @DFisman @TheLancet @jocalynclark They may think you’re exaggerating but it’s true. 2021-04-22 22:52:55 @jonahfleish In other words, that collection matters because it's showing you that the numbers aren't all over the place. The alignment is informative (the way Pfizer/Moderna trial number alignment was informative). We will learn more soon enough. 2021-04-22 22:52:01 @jonahfleish Such definitonal alignments will happen, too but what we are learning is that breakthroughs are fairly miniscule compared to protectiveness (also the hospitalization/death matters). IMO the CDC number is the most informative, and, crucially that they are aligned is informative. 2021-04-22 21:59:35 @jonahfleish Post widespread vaccination, the kind of studies you can do are different compared with the trial period, and breakthrough rates tell us important things for sure, and we'll soon get numbers from around the world as well. So the numbers are informative in their own context. 2021-04-22 21:56:09 @jonahfleish @EricTopol The six studies he's citing aren't efficacy studies, they are breakthrough studies. That's different from your example. As usual, Eric is doing very valuable work pulling together various studies to present an aggregate picture. (Honestly would say it if I disagreed with him!) 2021-04-22 21:44:31 RT @EricTopol: With addition of the new reports yesterday, the "breakthrough" infection rate after full mRNA vaccination has been consiste… 2021-04-22 21:43:51 @SeverineAR @TheEconomist Congratulations! 2021-04-22 20:17:29 @ConnConnection You're very welcome. 2021-04-22 19:44:50 RT @DwayneFuhlhage: 2020 provided a vivid reminder that tear gas and so called less-than-lethal munitions are frequently deployed as tools… 2021-04-22 19:22:33 My post on why that study of a nursing home outbreak in this thread that affected even the vaccinated was, in fact, encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. (Repost with the correct link.) https://t.co/YiLLqp1eIS 2021-04-22 19:20:16 @jonahfleish Thank you! 2021-04-22 18:36:30 RT @shivnotshank: this is really helpful as a way of thinking both about news & 2021-04-22 17:19:30 I wrote a post for my newsletter, to try to explain why that particular study of a nursing home outbreak that affected even the vaccinated was really encouraging news. It's also an example of why we need more than "just the facts" to be better informed. https://t.co/8IJEcmB8Ao 2021-04-22 16:37:45 @covidpath The key thing we need to hear is indoors/crowds. Japan's 3Cs are perfect. 2021-04-22 16:34:00 @jenneraub Yeah. At this point, I don't care if they invent terminology as long as they describe the mechanism correctly. As long as we move forward. 2021-04-22 16:30:37 That's tragic. Also, there are misconceptions about aerosols that generate undue fear—it doesn't mean it's necessarily like measles, that we should always wear N95s etc. The way to reduce undue fear *and* make progress is for health authorities to step up. https://t.co/MJHsYO7AFh 2021-04-22 16:15:35 @avtansh Yeah that's not helpful. I'm sorry. 2021-04-22 15:42:32 @iskander Yeah. One can epicycle through individual examples, but I don't see how one can explain the totality of the observed record and empirical studies with the "aerosols are mostly long-range and close-contact could be mostly droplets." I'm open to the case if someone wants to try. 2021-04-22 15:37:32 @iskander Yes. Also aerosols don't teleport magically to post two-meter space, so "droplet precautions" will, to some degree (depending on ventilation, as you say) work since they also pass through that close contact range. Acknowledging airborne isn't "everyone always wear N95s". Aargh. 2021-04-22 15:33:59 @braydenk Yeah. We cannot even explain what's most helpful to people without explaining what's actually happening. 2021-04-22 15:32:54 @iskander We see incorrect mitigations due to erroneous transmission assumptions so clearly around the world, and we still see this some here (CDC has moved along faster and more than the WHO). I don't understand how the implications can be denied. This will be in so many history books. 2021-04-22 15:30:22 @iskander Exactly. Saying "sure it happens some" (even that used to be denied but we moved on given overwhelming evidence) isn't enough because it doesn't lead to correct mitigations or understanding! Anyone who doesn't think it's dominant needs to present their theory of the epi record. 2021-04-22 15:14:29 I hear this from around the world. This is true for Turkey as well, amidst a deadly surge but still has complete curfew (NO OUTDOORS!) for weekends, and barely a mention of what airborne transmission means. This is why it's not some jargon quibble. https://t.co/82WKCHVJLJ 2021-04-22 14:57:28 Here's the Lancet paper on this (disclosure: I'm a co-author). It's true, there are a lot of misunderstandings about what "airborne" implies. We should correct all that, but have to start from the right place. It shouldn't be this hard to move forward. https://t.co/2gfSE5Q6hV 2021-04-22 14:54:24 Frankly, I wouldn't have cared which word stuck as long as the underlying transmission mechanism, and its implications, was made clear. This has not happened. We can see it around the world. FWIW, the WHO and the CDC call Tuberculosis airborne. It's their standard term for this. 2021-04-22 14:46:35 This isn't a jargon fight. The crucial problem is the *mechanism* needs explaining in order to arrive at the right mitigations and for those to make sense. "It occurs mostly at close contact" doesn't get us there, especially without explaining the correct underlying mechanism. 2021-04-22 14:43:51 That's because people are desperate for effective mitigation measures, and you cannot get there without explaining and centering airborne transmission. Countries with surges are *still* not distinguishing indoor/outdoor, explaining mask fit/filter etc. This isn't quibbling. https://t.co/sZgkuBzjqO 2021-04-22 14:35:17 RT @linseymarr: I also should have said that cognitive bias could prevent someone from seeing the evidence for what it is. This is somethi… 2021-04-22 03:39:00 @macroliter @guardian @wanderer_jasnah That’s a new one! 2021-04-22 03:11:17 @walkafyre I’m not afraid of the unvaccinated, I’m worried they aren’t getting a chance soon enough to be much safer. 2021-04-22 02:49:51 Here's the paper's Editor-in-Chief's defense of that headline, framing and story choice. https://t.co/i0FxqSLcvP 2021-04-22 02:21:52 @noUpside 2021-04-22 02:05:53 @ogeisimo It's not like there's an actual crisis, with billions of unvaccinated people and surges around the world, so that's what we gotta do, I guess. 2021-04-22 02:03:12 What are we doing here? https://t.co/M0d0CieI43 2021-04-22 01:55:14 @zchagla @EricTopol @CellCellPress @cychiu98 @UCSF @UCSFMedicine @GladstoneInst The weird part is I remain terrified of B.1.1.7 vs unvaccinated populations, and that one doesn't seem to inspire the same response as "immune escape" ones probably because of my tweet above: the threat of exponentials just isn't intuitive. 2021-04-22 01:53:11 @ariehkovler If it was fully-vaxxed, we couldn't do efficacy calculations? We'd just see a breakthrough number? 2021-04-22 01:01:05 @AaronRichterman Exactly! Nursing home outbreaks are important: both more likely to happen (OC43 outbreaks cause fatalities in nursing homes!) and also crucial population to protect, but I'm afraid every study may generate a trail of misunderstandings. 2021-04-22 00:59:04 Here's the confidence interval calculation from the paper (though still note that this is an efficacy calculation for the elderly nursing home population in the same congregate setting, different than the trial population which was much younger and indepedent). CI is 65.6-94.7%. https://t.co/9ONzXT9t5g 2021-04-22 00:47:03 I saw people deduce that this may imply weaker efficacy compared with the trial. That's not a thing we can conclude with a small breakthrough investigation but we can look at this as a case with really encouraging results. Nursing homes have fatalities from common cold outbreaks. 2021-04-22 00:43:25 Also: we can't directly compare efficacy from a *cluster among the elderly in a congregate setting* with a vaccine trial where participants aren't all living together and oversampled from the elderly. Even, if you concocted this, you'd find both in the same confidence interval. 2021-04-21 23:42:49 RT @ShellyMBoulder: "Frankly, I think he just can't admit he's wrong," said @linseymarr...Top Canadian WHO adviser (Jon Conly) under fire a… 2021-04-21 23:13:30 RT @zchagla: Many of the 484 breakthrough studies don't account to what infections are prevented - and just focus on the breakthroughs. Th… 2021-04-21 23:03:22 @DanchinMargie @GregDore2 2021-04-21 21:57:22 @GregDore2 Thank you. This one was genuinely positive! (I end up having to do the “nooo exponential threat ahead”, too). 2021-04-21 21:53:52 It is very important to study breakthrough cases, even if rare, and sequence them so we can keep an eye on what’s going on. Lab studies can only tell us so much. I just hope every such study doesn’t cause unnecessary alarms. This one showed particularly solid encouraging news. 2021-04-21 21:49:36 @NickRiccardi It's called R.1 which is not on the official list of concern or interest, yet, but the key point is it has, among others, the E484K mutation which it shares with B.1.351 and P.1 which are official variants of concern. 2021-04-21 21:45:59 @CM01647759 @BillHanage It's not on the official list, yet, but it has E484K. There is a lot of convergent evolution going on so we are seeing the same mutations all around. 2021-04-21 21:44:22 Yes, this is exactly what the study is telling us (plus this was a variant that had caused worry!). Raw numbers without context, or trial/cluster efficacy comparisons without also considering the underlying distribution aren't that informative. https://t.co/Jk2MGaV7bj 2021-04-21 21:37:11 @zchagla Yes, and it's frustrating to see some reporting/tweeting without the context of what this study actually tells us. "Breakthrough in nursing home" tells us very little without the specifics. 2021-04-21 21:35:48 So when we look at vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease in a *cluster* among *the elderly* in a *congregate setting* with a variant that worried us and see numbers this high: it's encouraging. Always, always, always: details matter in evaluating these studies. 2021-04-21 21:32:16 I know the overdispersion can be hard to wrap one's mind around, but it's a crucial feature of this pandemic: it produces these clusters where lots of people get infected in contrast with those many cases (likely vast majority) where people don't seem to transmit onwards at all. 2021-04-21 21:28:25 To understand why this is encouraging vaccine news, note that this is a *cluster* (overdispersed pathogen) *among the elderly* (vulnerable population) *who live together* (allows high attack rate). So way worse scenario compared with trials but vaccines *still* highly protective. https://t.co/iRKkq4TLdE 2021-04-21 21:19:43 @vlal42 @BillHanage Yeah, I expect the article any moment: "Vaccine does not confer immortality 2021-04-21 21:15:23 @BillHanage Yes, encouraging how well things are holding up even in worse case scenarios—already vulnerable population AND congregate living PLUS a variant that had caused a lot of worry. Better than I hoped. I mean, OC43 outbreaks cause deaths in nursing homes... This is solid protection. 2021-04-21 20:03:41 RT @EricTopol: A report of 22 vaccine "breakthrough" infections among nursing home residents and staff @CDCMMWR 0.8% of 1,781 residents 2021-04-21 15:53:14 @Pinboard "As an academic who writes for journalistic outlets, how dare you suggest I don't fit!" See all in one sentence, too. I demand a retraction, cancellation and an inclusive redo. 2021-04-21 15:49:37 RT @jburnmurdoch: B.1.1.7’s arrival in the US threatened one of the world’s most impressive vaccination rollouts, but as in France the data… 2021-04-21 15:48:11 @Pinboard Where is all of the above for me? 2021-04-21 15:25:03 @dgurdasani1 @Struggiment0 @munna_jajbati Yeah. The case chart (which is likely underreported) looks terrifying. I wouldn't rule out India becoming the highest mortality country, more than a year into the pandemic, even after vaccines were available, and while manufacturing good chunk of global supply. What a tragedy. 2021-04-21 15:18:25 @Nanjala1 There is an ongoing trial on mixing types of vaccines in the UK https://t.co/eG5ZeHprbV but Germany is already boosting AZ with Pfizer for > 2021-04-21 15:01:00 We don't have to wait for full details of variant analyses or focus on potential effects here to recognize this: the crisis in India is really, really, really dire and has the potential to be the worst case in the world. Our lack of robust global response is heartbreaking. 2021-04-21 14:54:25 @apoorva_nyc @chrischirp @munna_jajbati No no. Sorry, I was completely talking about here (and I kept seeing that tweet/similar stuff being shared by people here as a statement of vaccine concern). Of course Indian media will report on former PM. Wasn't talking about that at all. (Okay back to long form!). 2021-04-21 14:50:59 @apoorva_nyc @chrischirp @munna_jajbati What are we doing, though? Global response? I'm gonna get back to writing about it now but I don't mean just news reports (very valuable of course but different!). I'm despondent we're going to go through Brazil redux (and I get leadership issues, being from Turkey). 2021-04-21 14:45:44 @chrischirp @apoorva_nyc @munna_jajbati But what are we doing? I'm going to get back to writing about all this soon but to me it's like Brazil: there are some news reports (valuable) but no global action (I get the problems with leadership issue, especially since I'm from Turkey). Still, what's our response? Tragedy. 2021-04-21 14:44:12 @dgurdasani1 @munna_jajbati Sure. I'd still say vaccine breakthrough (especially as in the original tweet I highlighted: 88 year old man with health problems has mild fever) seems to be.. well, not a good focus for us given how terrible things are due to exponential growth. 2021-04-21 14:42:32 @apoorva_nyc @chrischirp @munna_jajbati Yeah not taking it at face value at all. Just that vaccine breakthrough doesn't seem to be the center of their crisis. I don't understand why there isn't an urgency around their actual crisis, as opposed to variant/vaccine worries about 88 year old vaccinated man with mild fever. 2021-04-21 14:38:35 @dgurdasani1 @munna_jajbati I'd also like more data. But US vaccine breakthroughs are also rarer than even my best hopes tbh. We'll see. That said, India's current, immediate and horrifying crisis does not seem to center around vaccine breakthroughs, and seems to deserve action regardless. https://t.co/IKmA2VUShe 2021-04-21 14:31:39 @chrischirp @munna_jajbati No paper that I know of yet, but today's announcement has to include later than pre-March, news release says more cases "due to surge." Hopefully more soon. Still the exponential growth they face is here, already. The reports are horrifying. https://t.co/jepJFdlMxE 2021-04-21 14:26:10 My guess: No "escaped a catastrophe before" is a guarantee, and our explanations were too speculative. I think neither Brazil nor India had herd immunity (seroprevalence studies weren't random) and *every* nonimmune (unvaccinated) population is under risk. https://t.co/xJh2gceCxn 2021-04-21 14:22:10 @chrischirp @munna_jajbati I mean, keep an eye on it for sure, but the results so far are not discouraging. Crucially, though, they are in a terrible, terrible spot. Don't have a good basis for conclusion but wouldn't be surprised by higher transmissibility, at least, for B.1.167. https://t.co/2ajRZe69QX 2021-04-21 12:07:00 @kakape I can't believe it took you pounding them to get this out of them! And also thank you! 2021-04-21 01:43:08 @ArisKatzourakis @DFisman I don't either, really. It's an obvious chokepoint and weakness. I think a lot of Western public health had a sticky prior with flu because we were expecting an influenza pandemic. 2021-04-21 01:21:27 @MatthewDavidH Exactly right. 2021-04-21 00:33:48 @BrendanNyhan @ProfEmilyOster Yeah though also https://t.co/cEDYJWms9D 2021-04-21 00:25:11 @ashwin_id Thank you! 2021-04-21 00:24:38 @ProfEmilyOster You’re welcome. I don’t know how widespread it is, but I heard from clinicians recently that this kind of vague and unsubstantiated variant/vaccine scary language is making some people think why bother with vaccines—especially in light of recent extra focus on rare side effects. 2021-04-21 00:07:21 Key lesson, great paper: “Real world disease-control must emphasize robustness, not efficiency” aka don’t try to finesse that exponential (but also works on the way down as well: then, exponential decay is our friend). https://t.co/vjdy6o7Ski 2021-04-20 21:45:17 @cjkane10 @TheLancet @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @jljcolorado @DFisman Thank you! 2021-04-20 20:34:57 @DFisman That and close-contact: biggest misunderstandings maybe? One interesting part for me has been how the incorrect assumptions lead to "airborne is too scary to think about" rather than "wait, there is a huge bang for our buck from targeting factors that lead to clusters". 2021-04-20 20:20:52 @EricTopol @CDCgov Wow. Video, too so can't float theories of how they all maybe secretly hugged. Plus: "The primary case-patient faced away from this area." That is not a gravity-propelled droplet unless, dunno, there's a, umm, Riemannian geometry wormhole, mumble mumble something in the pews. https://t.co/94HtC27c68 2021-04-20 19:41:50 RT @bencaudron: “on meta-epistemology: an epidemiologist’s perspective” by Whitney R. Robinson. In @zeynep’ Insight. Discussing “underlyin… 2021-04-20 19:40:19 UK has a public database—useful even if skewed towards detecting traveler variants. When I have another 10 minutes, I'll create the day-by-day chart of these mostly travel-linked B.1.167 cases that got Eric to declare "it’s outcompeting" illustrated with a cumulative log chart. https://t.co/lFYNEV2apb 2021-04-20 19:14:03 Below is on my tweet on UK school dates. Answer: @dgurdasani1 thought it was a correction I needed to make. Fine. Scotland schools opened for 5-7 year olds earlier. I don't know what it has to do with the recent 10 travel-linked cases in Scotland. https://t.co/pp4UAsigwu 2021-04-20 17:42:28 RT @CathNoakes: If you are thinking of buying a UV wand device to disinfect surfaces - don't. Most don't work and some are dangerous. Nice… 2021-04-20 15:08:22 RT @bethwilensky: This is a fascinating essay by @WhitneyEpi, and its discussion of stories-that-are-in-high-demand versus stories-that-rep… 2021-04-20 14:56:33 @doritoeubanks @Rosewind2007 @DrEricDing He has more than enough credentials to prevent him from what I'm highlighting here, which took me five minutes to look up basic facts and third grade math. He certainly has more epi credentials than I do! He has an epi PhD—more than enough regardless of his pre-pandemic focus. 2021-04-20 05:06:20 @SatishKTM Hahaha 2021-04-20 05:03:43 @dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing I don’t like it when it gets personally derogatory. Agree it happens. I’ll go through his threads regularly. I think he’s doing something he should stop, and I’ve asked him privately for a year now. You’re right. More public focus on his *content* should help, and I’ll do that. 2021-04-20 05:00:31 @SatishKTM Also all travel positives are sequenced so 5x means nothing. One could say we should keep an eye on this, test in community, not mention schools for no reason, not say “despite vaccination!” (irrelevant to travel cases), mention actual numbers. But not get 2000k+ RTs I guess? 2021-04-20 04:54:07 Correction: I’ve learned that Scottish primary schools opened in late February! But this is still garbled scaremongering and primary schools in Scotland have nothing to do with travel-linked 103 cases oversampled in a genomic database (really took five minutes to figure it out). https://t.co/psKug3LQWB 2021-04-20 04:50:54 @dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing Sure. I’ll add. 2021-04-20 04:50:16 @dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing Thank you for that part. The partial opening of elementary schools in Scotland isn’t linked to 103 travel-linked cases. Garbled scaremongering damages credibility. It’s a pattern. I could pick apart his threads everyday. Maybe I should because usually it’s not that much work. 2021-04-20 04:41:42 @dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing It’s right here. People can read and judge. There is no excuse for this, and this isn’t an exception and that’s why I called it out. I could do it everyday because it’s a pattern. I’ll end it here: enabling this isn’t harmless. It’s not hard to just say watch for variants. https://t.co/psKug3LQWB 2021-04-20 04:30:31 @dgurdasani1 My thread isn’t about Scottish schools since 103 mostly travel linked cases oversampled in a database aren’t relevant to them. But I like the correction urge! The world would really benefit from correcting the garbled, scary and misleading tweets @DrEricDing had strung together. 2021-04-20 04:21:09 @dgurdasani1 That’s not what his garbled string—just thrown together to scare–says. Enabling this isn’t harmless. 2021-04-20 04:16:38 @DrEricDing Just stop. Took me five minutes. https://t.co/7IaZikI3nz 2021-04-20 04:08:13 @DrEricDing There is no excuse for what you do. Stringing together words “double mutant” “schools” 5X blah blah to scare people baselessly. It took me five minutes to provide context. 103 cases, vast majority travel-linked, oversampled in genomic database because travel-linked. Just stop. 2021-04-20 01:26:20 I’m all for keeping an eye on variants but... Yeah, this isn’t it. 2021-04-20 01:24:10 Oh, wait it gets even better. Well, worse. I also learned that UK sequences *every* positive traveler (good idea) to check for variants, so those 103 cases that are mostly linked to international travel are likely overrepresented in the database—which wasn’t random to begin with. 2021-04-20 00:50:36 @CoffeePlz4me I’m sorry. 2021-04-20 00:47:53 Even the school opening dates aren’t fully aligned with these overwhelmingly travel-linked 103 cases, but you never know! Double mutants can go from airports to schools without passing through the community, and can do time travel and turn vaccines into pumpkin. https://t.co/i1QYp0HaHK 2021-04-19 17:10:45 @notdred Also, for additional fun, why not unleash a debate on whether it is vaccines or lockdowns that cause drops? It's not like there were a gazillion explainers on herd immunity last year on when things are transmissible, those things would interact with effects beyond the vaccinated. 2021-04-19 16:40:28 @notdred More than a year into a pandemic, one ends up still explaining exponential threats, now you think we can consider exponential decay in how we respond? That's too easy. We must make it *harder* for ourselves over a longer period of time to earn it. 2021-04-19 16:07:46 @emily_erikson Thank you. Such an interesting moment in terms of how theory/practice interact. 2021-04-19 16:01:46 (Folks yes I know, weekend stats. I put the seven-day rolling average on screenshot for a reason.). Forget the edit button I want to put footnotes to my tweets . On that note, back to the piece I’m actually writing. https://t.co/SS6FB0gMwB 2021-04-19 15:53:59 (Note: all the people telling me the UK situation is multi-causal and comparisons are difficult. Well, yeah, see above tweet. If the adaptive trial we advocated for had been launched in December, we’d have clearer answers now. The point remains: it was not an unscientific step). 2021-04-19 15:32:50 As disclosure: I co-advocated for a *trial* (preferrably an adaptive one) on dose sparing/delaying early December (with @michaelmina_lab) because I think it’s best to bolster our decisions with data as best we can, and as soon as we can, even if we have to decide quickly. 2021-04-19 15:29:31 I get this, and I also still think that reasonable people can disagree about dose-sparing as a strategy. But “Boris sucks” (or a version of it) is a bad heuristic for evaluating such decisions/topics, even if “Boris” [insert politician] may well suck. (See Florida in US). https://t.co/nGUAOpGscN 2021-04-19 15:14:24 Yes, not really relevant in the US right now, but the discussion happened in December/January when thousands were dying per day. Anyway, “follow the science” or “science is clear” gets thrown around a lot—ignoring there were leading, highly-credentialed scientists on both sides. https://t.co/TCGEHH08DZ 2021-04-19 15:09:30 People do not have to agree on dose-sparing as the best strategy and analysis of UK’s dramatic divergence from rest of Europe. But UK’s own scientific committee and a lot of leading scientists who advocated for it, nor those who disagreed, were “not following the science”. 2021-04-19 14:59:37 There are, of course, also other things going on that make these country comparisons difficult. But that’s the whole point, these things are tough! There is a lot of things for which there is no single, clear right answer and disagreement is normal. But we gotta act. 2021-04-19 14:57:47 These things are tough! Understandable that some expressed reservations about this while other leading scientists supported the dose-sparing strategy. But holding off on declaring such disagreements to be “not following the science” might help. Dose sparing was not unprecedented. 2021-04-19 14:53:55 When the UK decided last December to delay boosters to speed up coverage, it faced denounciations that it wasn’t “following the science”—not just that people could disagree with it, but that it was unscientific. Today, a single UK death while much of Europe faces a deadly surge. https://t.co/eGf2O7jRbv https://t.co/iGzh0CCVvu 2021-04-19 13:58:15 RT @DKThomp: And now, here's @zeynep in NEJM on the case against outdoor mask mandates: "People are not being properly informed about where… 2021-04-19 13:38:17 RT @PaulSaxMD: Is it time to end outdoor mask mandates? Some thoughts on this issue, with thanks to @zeynep @shanpalus @MonicaGandhi9, and… 2021-04-19 13:22:40 @_opservator_ The recommendations on what you should do are. 2021-04-19 04:32:30 @maggiekb1 That’s the tragedy! 2021-04-19 04:21:06 @maggiekb1 And tragically that’s from July of last year. My first article related to all this was *sobs* more than a year ago! Still going on. 2021-04-19 02:15:02 @j_g_allen “Make k as common as R0” -> 2021-04-18 22:45:38 RT @iamgkadam: Reasonable summary of what we know (very little) and what we don't (a whole lot), and thus what we can conclude now about th… 2021-04-18 22:10:18 @Rschooley @TheLancet @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @jljcolorado @DFisman Yeah. I feel mostly unnecessary outdoors, outside prolonged and closed interactions. Also indoors: fit and filter matters but also: crowded? Ventilation? Duration? Not too complicated imho. 2021-04-18 20:32:39 @MonkeeBread No not a speed reader! But I do read a lot. Especially these days. 2021-04-18 20:31:10 @bealelab @invadingpirate Also how “transmission without symptoms” divides into pre-, pauci-, and truly asymptomatic throughout proportions may be harder to precisely nail down (and I’d agree first two are the bulk), transmission without coughing as key symptoms includes all three—key to this paper. 2021-04-18 20:25:35 @iskander @deeptabhattacha @wanderer_jasnah @jbloom_lab We find out the true shape of the fitness landscape? 2021-04-18 18:19:58 And just putting this thread here so people can get some context of how difficult it has been, for so long, to make progress. https://t.co/cAXchsGpCD 2021-04-18 18:18:05 Another good addition for people following this topic is Dr. @linseymarr, a true pioneer in this field (her latest in @bmj_latest, also out this week(!), was titled "Covid-19 has redefined airborne transmission"). https://t.co/n3jQfp7KhZ 2021-04-18 18:13:18 @linseymarr @j_g_allen @trishgreenhalgh @jljcolorado @DFisman @Rschooley I'm so grateful that all of you (with special thanks to you!) were at this for so long, and it sucks that it took a pandemic to bring things forth. But honestly, I do believe there will potentially be much good, including for other respiratory pathogens from this moment/shift. 2021-04-18 16:59:08 RT @HuffmanLabDU: I respectfully disagree that the recent (& 2021-04-18 16:20:21 Indeed. The picture is inappropriate and misleading (even though the article itself, thankfully, has no reference to outdoors being high risk). Visuals really, really matter and photo editors need to put a stop this. https://t.co/dr8FWHh0O6 https://t.co/LgPf0cHBxW 2021-04-18 15:38:32 @ChristosArgyrop @KurtadikarKetan @sdbaral @wanderer_jasnah Besides P1 may well be more contagious (doesn't seem to be outcompeting B.1.1.7 but we'll see) but everything happening in Brazil could mostly or completely be epidemiological factors, exponential growth and hospital collapse rather than MUTANTNINJANUCLEARVARIANT. 2021-04-18 15:35:01 @ChristosArgyrop @KurtadikarKetan @sdbaral @wanderer_jasnah Yeah haha. One problem here is that, in my view, this kind of nonsense is less likely to turn into "let's vaccinate the world" but more likely to turn into a bimodal response between unnecessary and persistent fear among some and just xenophobia and discrimination among others. 2021-04-18 15:25:52 @KurtadikarKetan @ChristosArgyrop @sdbaral @wanderer_jasnah Incredible and so irresponsible. 2021-04-18 15:10:10 We briefly address this (word limit!) but it's not correct to assume that airborne transmission necessitates either a high R0 like measles or even a uniform transmission pattern. Tuberculosis is airborne but has lowish R0—but likely also overdispersion! https://t.co/AKji5qkvUb 2021-04-18 14:40:19 @jljcolorado @kacybrn @FrankCianfrani @UrwinMavis @nsksanthanam @EricTopol @TheLancet @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @Rschooley @DFisman "Some aerosols can escape masks with low filtration and gaps" just doesn't translate into some blanket "masks are useless unless N95" conclusion. (And Jose and other top aerosol scientists have been working on this, plus we do have a lot of observational data). Have a good day. 2021-04-16 16:26:31 @astupple Yeah. It's such a key piece of evidence and keeps getting overlooked over quibbles over other things. We have more than a full year of voluminous epidemiological data and, given the rest of evidence as well, it's hard to for me to see the case for droplets as primary or even big. 2021-04-16 16:16:31 I don't mean the above as lip service. I don't see how the totality of evidence works well for an explanation that differs fundamentally, but I'd be super interested in reading that framework: not as an assumption in textbooks but as how it fits the full range observational data. 2021-04-16 16:12:11 Our @TheLancet paper is a work of synthesis in the service of a causal framework that best explains observed phenomenon over a year of intense data collection. I'd be interested to read a case for "it's predominantly and/or largely droplets" fits the data. https://t.co/Z3c8lnuPUw 2021-04-16 16:00:49 Another great paper, making the case for the predominance of airborne transmission and, crucially, focusing on practical recommendations for buildings with a realistic & 2021-04-16 14:04:58 @digiphile @Brief_19 @TheLancet But yes, vaccines seem to confer better immunity for infection (which isn't always true!) and that's especially important for the elderly. 2021-04-16 14:04:22 @digiphile @Brief_19 @TheLancet (Relative risk and other relative measures like vaccine efficacy are commonly used but my experience last year says that they really are easy to misunderstand, especially comparing something already low to something a bit lower: the drop can "feel" bigger than its implications). 2021-04-16 14:00:50 @j_g_allen @trishgreenhalgh @jljcolorado @DFisman @Rschooley But there is clearly an amazing book there, just on that, with all the twists and turns of science and paradigms and traditions and personalities. 2021-04-16 13:59:34 @j_g_allen @trishgreenhalgh @jljcolorado @DFisman @Rschooley No, no! Actually no. Not writing a history of science book, no. (I will write a book, eventually, that may mention it but there is a history to trace there that will be much better done by someone who does real archival work. All the hard work historians do and I love reading!). 2021-04-16 13:58:10 RT @glbryson: Because of all those campground super spreader events? Please, let's limit govt solutions to actual problems. @zeynep https:/… 2021-04-16 13:57:20 @digiphile @Brief_19 @TheLancet This is really overstated (though the word "fully" is there, can still lead to misunderstanding). The reinfection rate among the elderly is higher than the young where it's really low, but protection isn't absent. Looking at raw numbers helps these relative risk interpretations. https://t.co/OK20A5L4zy 2021-04-16 13:51:45 @j_g_allen @trishgreenhalgh @jljcolorado @DFisman @Rschooley Also seems to go along with various empirically unsupported conflations (like aerosol=high R0 2021-04-16 13:48:58 @j_g_allen @trishgreenhalgh @jljcolorado @DFisman @Rschooley Thank you! Interestingly, I've ended up reading a huge amount of medical "droplet" literature and, wow, I cannot wait for someone to write the history of science book on that. It's looks a lot like tradition rather than evidence, and I kept thinking I must be missing something? 2021-04-16 13:43:52 @VeysiCe Bütün dünyada yaygın bir sorun maalesef 2021-04-16 13:28:51 @vplus Your examples are silly and annoying (though no doubt they come at an opportunity cost) but worse, around the world, there are now *indoor* curfews in crowded cities with surges—sticking people even longer inside worst conditions (buildings with shared air) while closing parks. 2021-04-16 13:27:22 @vplus Every time I write about this, there is a group of people who say "don't we already know about this?" Then we turn to reality, from around the world, where aerosol transmission is barely taken into account, let alone the case we make that it's the *primary* route. 2021-04-16 12:30:09 @DrAbdiMahamud Thank you! Indeed. Dominance of aerosol routes has been misunderstood (It must have R0 likes measles! Makes masks useless! No to both!). As you say, short-range is also dominated by airborne so yes to masks and distance but a correct understanding *adds* much to our arsenal. 2021-04-16 12:24:51 @rumagin Peer review is always good, but there is more here. This isn't just that it's airborne, that it's predominantly airborne. 2021-04-16 12:19:14 RT @natashaloder: Not just airborne-but predominantly airborne. https://t.co/CQRj0REnDN 2021-04-16 03:06:44 Why this really matters. This isn’t quibbles at the margins. Its an incorrect paradigm being replaced. Some things overlap between the two, but not everything does and thus there will likely be many real changes going forward that affect *other* respiratory pathogens as well. https://t.co/ggBG3QnNLu 2021-04-16 02:14:36 @mattcutts Thank you, Matt, for all your amazing work. 2021-04-16 02:04:20 @jbolognino Muge is excellent on all this (and everything else, too). I just retweeted her into the my own followers, but here's more and there's a thread: https://t.co/aUiMDSPxNT 2021-04-16 01:50:33 RT @mugecevik: @drphilhammond Nope. There are no confirmed superspreading events or large clusters that are outdoors only. We saw no surge… 2021-04-16 01:41:04 @jbolognino @EricTopol @TheLancet @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @Rschooley @jljcolorado @DFisman There are a few confirmed cases, but usually after sustained contact at close length that involves talking/yelling as well. But really few confirmed cases at all in the whole epidemiological record even after a full year. No confirmed sizeable outbreaks I know for real. 2021-04-16 01:33:04 RT @linseymarr: Yes, the "airborne route is likely to be dominant." https://t.co/Iw91MCfTsE 2021-04-16 01:04:31 @DrLeanaWen Oh my goodness. There has to be way to help this country (among others) but this is beyond any tipping point. 2021-04-16 00:40:18 “Predominantly airborne” doesn’t mean masks and distancing are useless. In fact, aerosol scientists were among the first to emphasize both. But correct theory of transmission gives both better explanations of the epidemiological record and better mitigations over a broader range. 2021-04-16 00:34:08 @mathnegative Well their theory has been correct from the beginning and their numbers are better than most. I am not there so can’t testify to full practice. 2021-04-16 00:30:08 I want to add something. Recognizing SARS-CoV-2 as *predominantly* airborne isn’t an obstacle. It helps identify effective mitigations& 2021-04-16 00:18:12 RT @dylanhmorris: This persuasive article will make a good teaching example. Doing good science doesn't always mean doing fancy experiments… 2021-04-16 00:08:05 RT @EricTopol: Airborne it is. The 10 streams of overwhelming evidence https://t.co/y3ZT40Nsu8 @TheLancet by @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88… 2021-04-15 23:54:46 RT @dylanhmorris: At this point I am obliged to plug my favorite essay on the practice of science https://t.co/hQt8N7jNOf https://t.co/bjzx… 2021-04-15 23:44:20 @nataliexdean Thank you. It was really wasn’t great to use VE as the public facing number. 2021-04-15 23:41:03 @EricTopol @TheLancet @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @Rschooley @jljcolorado @DFisman Stolen! https://t.co/XtZ92QsMd9 2021-04-15 23:29:41 Anyway, it's been a true honor and pleasure to be included in this paper with my co-authors, @trishgreenhalgh @kprather88 @Rschooley @jljcolorado and @dfisman and, hey, I even liked the peer review process! The reviewers were sharp which is always good. https://t.co/xPnnWfo75E 2021-04-15 23:25:04 There's good that can come out of this, including correcting our understanding or airborne transmission of other respiratory pathogens. See this letter in Science pointing out the correct aerosol/droplet boundary by @kprather88 @linseymarr et al. This is important for the future. https://t.co/O8z0BqFvpE 2021-04-15 23:17:50 We had a word limit. But the power of a coherent, empirically strong framework is that it's easier to make the case even in a short paper especially since one can dispense of the epicycles taking up useless space and just point out how it all fits together, the epi, labs, etc. 2021-04-15 23:14:11 Airborne transmission unites three things crucial to recognize for effective COVID-19 mitigation: transmission without symptoms (thus aerosols), clusters driving the epidemic (also aerosols) and masks/ventilation indoors being key (hey, also aerosols). This framework is coherent. 2021-04-15 23:10:51 If you put it together, it's true that distancing and masks are key, but when you have the right predominant mechanism—aerosols—there are differences. Indoor and outdoor policies can differ, for example, and distance is good but not enough indoors and depends on ventilation. 2021-04-15 23:07:15 Fascinatingly, you search the scientific record high and low, but there really is little to no direct evidence for gravity-sprayed droplets being predominant mode of transmission for respiratory illnesses outside of coughing/sneezing. It's many... assumptions. Like a tradition. 2021-04-15 23:03:51 This is the geekiest bit that I love and cannot wait for the longer papers to be public: I'm persuaded that the traditional droplet/aerosol boundary has a major scientific error (wrong by about 20x) that has led to much misunderstandings and errors. Ask @jljcolorado about that! 2021-04-15 23:00:36 We argue that the so-called "droplet precautions" do, to a good degree, overlap with "airborne protections" (because aerosols are also nearer) which is fine, but it's important to get the mechanism right, because it's not a complete overlap, and the implications aren't the same. 2021-04-15 22:58:18 Same with clear importance of transmission without symptoms: aerosol transmission best explains this. Coughing & 2021-04-15 16:39:12 @tuna_gezer The same most everywhere, unfortunately. 2021-04-15 16:26:39 So happy to see this @ezraklein interview with @tressiemcphd. Ezra describes her as "one of America's sharpest cultural critics." For me, she's someone whose every piece either makes me think new things, or forces me to rethink my ideas. It's a treat. https://t.co/dfjHh42s6w https://t.co/83CiaL0KZS 2021-04-15 16:15:35 @mattficke Yeah, I'm sorry. So many such examples around the world. 2021-04-15 16:13:12 @BuBaykurt Congratulations! Can't wait to read! 2021-04-15 16:11:50 @jmgreens @robertbenzie @cityoftoronto You're very welcome and I'm really sorry we haven't managed to make the science stick here. 2021-04-15 16:09:01 @jmgreens @robertbenzie @cityoftoronto Thank you. Added to one of my many threads on this. 2021-04-15 16:08:31 The year is 2157. As spring blooms, parks are cordoned off with tape—an annual ritual origins of which are lost to time. Some believe tape markings ward of the evil eye that brings on disease. Others think its bright yellow stimulates the immune system. https://t.co/FdRgtDnlme 2021-04-15 14:35:30 RT @Revkin: A year after @zeynep pushed for a rational, not symbolic, approach to pandemic mitigation: https://t.co/NZX99xuh1V https://t.co… 2021-04-15 14:15:56 RT @annehelen: Please spread the word about Substack Local — which is offering $1 million in grants for local news. Applications close at t… 2021-04-15 13:40:11 Very encouraging numbers. (Despite the sometimes sensationalized reporting: "breakthrough" cases—especially among the elderly—are expected pretty much for any vaccine. The key is how many and how severe, and these vaccines are looking as good as some of the best ones we have). https://t.co/kv0N737pSB 2021-04-15 12:37:45 Speaking to the rarity of it all: seems there are 20 cases (looking at 500K records), and not all have the labs everyone will be looking for. I hope they can track them down quickly. No matter what people think about the pause, I think the speed of research is truly impressive. 2021-04-15 12:35:01 "The risk after COVID-19 is 8-10 times that reported for the vaccines, and about 100-fold increased compared to the population rate. The increased rate of CVT in COVID-19 is notable..." It's really so tough to deal with a challenge like a global pandemic with a novel virus. https://t.co/08pttIUdYx 2021-04-15 12:27:15 Potentially important part of the puzzle: researchers argue risk of CVST (cerebral venous sinus thrombosis—the rare side effect that led to J& 2021-04-15 12:26:19 @peteyreplies Actually they did include the comparison from EMA data 2021-04-15 11:40:31 RT @dicktofel: Delighted to be judging $1 million in awards from ⁦@SubstackInc⁩ to local news, and to be joining ⁦@zeynep⁩ ⁦@annehelen⁩ and… 2021-04-15 02:32:14 RT @JenniferNuzzo: More, very encouraging data! 2021-04-15 02:22:14 RT @syramadad: “The COVID19 vaccines are lifesaving: The 7-day average rate of admission into hospitals for COVID-like illness among NYers… 2021-04-15 02:21:20 @HoffProf @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @NateSilver538 Yeah, though decisions must be made. I get the clinical impulse (blood clots/brain/very low platelets=that's a WTF combination: see it in AZ, then J& 2021-04-15 02:15:28 @Balgor11 I wasn't endorsing him. Just an example. The problem is it's practically impossible at this point for a normal person to divide the experts into credentialed/non-credentialed to figure things out. The examples of very stark disagreement among highly-credentialed folks are many. 2021-04-15 02:08:05 @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @NateSilver538 (I'm just admitting obvious limits here... ) 2021-04-15 02:07:37 @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @NateSilver538 Probably makes more sense to go from broad principles that we know apply (on trust/information etc), focus on minimizing trade-offs whenever possible, and prioritize saving lives since a lot of the rest can be tweaked along the way but rolling back exponentials is really uphill. 2021-04-15 02:04:38 @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @NateSilver538 There is a field and a lot of study, but I do think nobody can confidently tell us how this one will really play out now. Whatever happened in the before times that we studied... was a really different context. That said, I do find pandemic era studies more relevant. 2021-04-15 01:30:08 RT @ezraklein: Honestly, I could've kept talking to @tressiemcphd for four more hours, and every minute of it would've been interesting, an… 2021-04-15 01:26:16 RT @MamaDoctorJones: I agree with the sentiment - these vaccines are safe and this shouldn’t keep us from being vaccinated (if anything it… 2021-04-15 01:26:08 RT @MamaDoctorJones: Risk of Central Venous Sinus Thrombus (CVST) on hormonal contraceptives is 16 in 1 MILLION - we can’t compare CVST (es… 2021-04-15 01:21:50 @EricTopol https://t.co/KUNj8BCR2v 2021-04-15 01:20:18 RT @MikeLynch09: Even if you are fully vaccinated, the CDC recommends against holding a meeting that could have been an email. 2021-04-15 00:58:04 @EricTopol Yeah a few of them essentially said pretty much that. I was especially touched by one doctor who mentioned the thing that’s very high on my mind. It’s not their charge but a reality: what all this means for countries without the abundant alternative supply the United States has. 2021-04-15 00:54:35 RT @ericearling: When people like @zeynep & 2021-04-14 22:32:06 So, simultaneously, we have: a new public sphere which our institutions weren't designed for 2021-04-14 22:29:18 To conclude the day, ACIP meeting was interesting and it included assertions from experts ranging from one calling the pause "devastating" to others saying restarting now would be "unacceptable". These are necessarily "no single right answer" questions. https://t.co/JDVE38P98I 2021-04-14 21:27:18 US public health/regulatory process on vaccines and vaccine safety is way, way better than what Europe has been doing. Different quality of response. *reshuffles all the factions* 2021-04-14 20:19:30 @pdfmakerapp @Sociopathblog How do I block this? (I'm going choose to block all users otherwise). 2021-04-14 20:17:47 @pdfmakerapp HOW DO I BLOCK THIS? 2021-04-14 20:17:03 @AbdulElSayed (I'm focused on how do we develop capacity for this new public sphere? I think these cycles of outrage focused on few, repeated famous targets undermine it all further tbh because of that "intra" part regardless of what people think about the appropriateness of targets.) 2021-04-14 20:14:02 @AbdulElSayed Media Twitter has its own favored targets and increasingly media and parts of the public health Twitter have its own few targets (key: they are few, not who) when, the problem is really not about those few targets, and it ends up looking like a intra-elite/pundit/media jostling. 2021-04-14 20:11:19 @AbdulElSayed My point is that a lot of these cycles of outrage focus on a few individuals (like that anchor bringing up Silver) when: 1)Any single person is not a big problem (goes for everyone—nobody is that important) 2021-04-14 18:09:32 @notdred Actually, thinking back on this, you may well be right. I'm just annoyed at the focus on single/few people who tweet, rather than the global mess of a public sphere we aren't equipped to deal with but.. Yeah, better that, lol. 2021-04-14 17:40:03 *takes a risk to write outside her core field for a year because it's a global crisis* *tries for once to actually comment on her core field, where she has book, articles, all the classic credentials* https://t.co/dvR91NrAN3 2021-04-14 17:25:31 Congratulations, you have just become a Twitter pundit and proven my point: if we are supposed to pick and choose which surgeon general to trust, "stop ranting and listen to the surgeon general" does not solve the problem I'm trying to explain. https://t.co/Sih2AyMWcM 2021-04-14 17:21:17 @notdred heh 2021-04-14 17:20:57 First, I'm "ranting" about my actual area of expertise for once! By your logic, you should only listen to me on this. Two, what I think about the surgeon general is irrelevant. Three, what did you think about the previous surgeon general and his opinions?https://t.co/VBvII528jd 2021-04-14 17:18:03 @grtamericanovel I'm sorry since it seems that you don't even understand the problem, because it's not about my opinion of the surgeon general. (What did you think of the previous one?), 2021-04-14 17:15:58 Serious? Without claiming this person is right, or that I agree, how about a public health professor at Johns Hopkins University with an MD and an MPH and who teaches public health policy? Examples are numerous and "expert" opinion is all over the place. https://t.co/SOarVHOdUz https://t.co/7zKd8j30a2 2021-04-14 17:04:12 @celinegounder I hope it was clear that I did not suggest AT ALL that you should not comment on societal dynamics, especially in the context of the digital public sphere, because that's not your expertise or area of study. My comment was about the news anchor focusing on Silver, of all things. 2021-04-14 16:47:00 Gatekeepers—even weakened—and public health authorities have a huge role to play but the question is way beyond "message". It's about developing capacity for this new public sphere. Constantly saying "listen to experts" (which ones?) doesn't address this. https://t.co/LdYEBoa5c6 2021-04-14 15:38:34 @KeithNHumphreys @samhaselby You got it! 2021-04-14 15:09:35 @kareem_carr As well as one would expect, when you take a group whose experience in communication is often limited to to captive audiences (our students/patients for the medical crowd) where we talk, they pay, and then we grade them (diagnose for medical side) into the new public sphere. 2021-04-14 15:01:58 Conclusion for now, from my first newsletter titled "Against Nostalgia." We are in a transition: a mismatch between our reality and our cultural and institutional capacity to manage it. Nostalgia for the past (common yearning) isn't going to solve this. https://t.co/SmZBrYdtf2 https://t.co/jbRLSVgPph 2021-04-14 14:53:38 Let me add this here. I have seen the full range of opinion on FDAs steps from credentialed experts. No surprise! It's a very tough moment to navigate and NOBODY has "the" absolute right answer because we aren't solving a quadratic equation here. https://t.co/1JXzzaY4J7 2021-04-14 14:49:29 @EricColumbus I have seen the full range (good, bad, terrible) from experts with all the credentials you want, plus an enormous range of private opinion as well (these fields tend to be quite top down in expressing dissent, as we saw all year, but they are also many outspoken ones). 2021-04-14 14:47:10 (Folks, feel free NOT to send me your opinions on Nate Silver, or any single pundit right after I kinda said excessive focus on a single person isn't addressing the problem. Intra-elite debates or jostling are... they are what they are. Uninteresting. Nobody has crystal balls). 2021-04-14 14:43:44 Anyway, all the intra-expert (yes, intra-expert: the credentialed experts do NOT have a consensus on many key questions) and intra-elite debate (fine, put me in it if you want) but doesn't solve our problem. Doesn't even address it. 2021-04-14 14:40:10 We turn to health authorities to try to manage this—the obvious and my preferred solution—but let's just say that it's pretty clear that this hasn't been, to put it politely, a smooth and consistent process. I say this because I want it to be better, but reality is reality. 2021-04-14 14:37:17 The "listen to experts/science" crowd needs to see the problem: well-credentialed experts IN YOUR FIELD have confident, contradictory assertions all over the place. So it turns into "which experts" which turns into "ones I like"—not really a manageable process for ordinary folks. 2021-04-14 14:34:48 What I don't understand. The issue isn't whether a "Nate Silver" [insert pundit you like/don't like] opines or not. The key difference is that a few gatekeepers absolutely DO NOT control how this plays out anymore. That's the context to consider. Why aren't we focusing on that? https://t.co/TFENdQg4da 2021-04-14 14:32:16 RT @JamesSurowiecki: Amazing people are still tweeting this nonsense. On 2/29, the Surgeon General tweeted, "STOP BUYING MASKS! They are N… 2021-04-14 14:31:55 @nataliexdean @notdred @NateSilver538 In addition, NHS is something pretty unique to them. The key issue here is that nobody, absolutely nobody, has a crystal ball, but people are also absolutely right to point out potential ramifications especially so one can try to figure out ways to do this better. 2021-04-13 23:52:58 RT @nataliexdean: I saw @zeynep make this point earlier, but it is buried in a thread. Attaching here. 2021-04-13 20:51:12 @natem42 @ezraklein Be on the lookout for severe headaches, abdominal pain, leg pain or shortness of breath. It’s a super rare but treatable complication. 2021-04-13 20:40:56 @ezraklein Yeah, hard decisions here. One principle, however, would be to minimize as much as possible the free-for-all in the news cycle (now at least 48 hours) and be a lot more “muscular” in the announcement—today felt like communication to doctors, rather than the whole anxious world. 2021-04-13 20:21:19 @NateSilver538 There is a "it means they are super careful, isn't that reassuring" interpretation (and yep, that works on me and people like me!) but that's not necessarily how it reverberates outwards, which is just a thorny reality. 2021-04-13 20:16:40 @NateSilver538 I know this isn't FDA's primary concern but the global interpretation may well be more significant than it looks from here—"USA FDA cancelled appointments with a few minutes notice" isn't easy to communicate as "abundance of caution in a country with abundance of other vaccines". 2021-04-13 19:52:05 @kadavy Thank you. I'm seeing many well-meaning appeals (that I don't disagree with) to better communication/framing etc. but better "sci-comm" cannot do the lift required for what we're facing. 2021-04-13 17:21:37 @CoastalElite28 I can't figure out if this is brilliant sarcasm or not. 2021-04-13 17:18:14 @CoastalElite28 yeah, not like we're in the middle of a global crisis or anything. 2021-04-13 15:04:45 Okay, I'm gonna go back to what I was writing but for now, conclusion: dynamics of the public sphere in the 21st century cannot be ignored, and cannot be solved merely with better communication, even if we can advocate at least for that part to happen. The response has to adapt. 2021-04-13 15:00:56 Not only is this true for many "stay in your lane" dunks ("the dunker" is not qualified, just dunking), the problem remains even when it *is* deserved and "the dunker" is qualified. The problem is.. the 21st century itself. Have to adapt, not wish it away. https://t.co/h3u36SlAjf 2021-04-13 14:54:43 The tragedy is that all this "stay in your lane "ironic dunking is good primarily only for... Twitter klout, which is exactly why it is a *negative* for our pandemic response. It's just contributing to the problem it can't solve. Walter Cronkite isn't going to save this, folks. https://t.co/nB7maIvKNK 2021-04-13 14:43:55 I see it's "people should stop commenting", "begging the editors to properly contextualize the news", "look how rare it is" day again. All good, except a problem called reality: that's just NOT how the 21st century public sphere works. I wouldn't mind if it did, but it doesn't. 2021-04-13 14:31:50 @j_g_allen Crisis comms by whom, though? First you have to recognize the nature of the crisis (that it's not something well-meaning communication, alone, can address). We know what happened with the example above, and with so many other examples. Alas, sigh. 2021-04-13 14:10:40 @j_g_allen I'm for better communication, but we're putting an enormous amount of hope on something that realistically cannot do what we expect of it—21st century and all—rather than how to put ourselves in a position that the communication part can realistically help address the challenge. 2021-04-13 13:58:25 @cheesechoker I'll allow this one. I'm just amazed that blatant klout-chasing stupidity gets treated like it's smart because it's dunking on someone people find annoying. 2021-04-13 00:36:53 RT @DFisman: We have known how to control this disease for a year. https://t.co/BGIVUOYYcO 2021-04-12 23:16:32 @deeptabhattacha @SCOTTeHENSLEY *headdesk* 2021-04-12 23:16:20 RT @deeptabhattacha: 'Some people have incorrectly concluded that means that those vaccines offer only six months of protection. "We only h… 2021-04-12 20:54:22 @notdred @pearkes Would have made sense if they had moved at the *first sign* of the uptick. I mentioned this in an article... weeks ago. And I tend to write after things become blaringly obvious. Michigan has been blaringly obvious for weeks. Don't wait around with exponentials, part zillion. 2021-04-12 16:25:57 Yeah, looks like there is follower buying/scamming of some sort going on with this app (and maybe others). @twittersafety really should look into these apps, and the transactions around them. https://t.co/GrggLoqLmc 2021-04-12 16:10:04 Folks, don't give easy access to apps, check what the permissions involve, and if you did, go to your settings and find "connected apps" and revoke those. You can be "sold" as a follower, your DMs can be accessed etc. @Twittersafety should vet all apps for their permissions. https://t.co/kupbm2XfS8 2021-04-12 16:06:56 Seeing many complaints about the Twitter "family tree" app asking for (unnecessary) authorizations, and then people finding themselves following accounts (muted so they don't notice). Seems scammy *and* can be a risk with DM access. Can a Twitter employee alert @twittersafety? https://t.co/unEW1BWOmr 2021-04-12 15:04:27 @BStulberg Yeah couple of books if I decide to do it and/or find the time. :-D 2021-04-12 15:03:14 @wanderer_jasnah Please DO write why, and I will happily publish it at least in my newsletter as a compensated piece or connect you to any outlet that I can if you prefer. Please please! :-D 2021-04-12 14:22:38 @BStulberg Thank you! Yeah, very aware of that problem, and after last year, it is--no kidding--on top of my mind. I always knew it, I taught about it, I know the topic/examples so well from history. But I have a new appreciation of how strong those forces are. Mind-blowing. 2021-04-12 14:15:31 @BStulberg I learned a lot about viruses, aerosols and things outside my usual field (though I was always interested in both pandemics and viruses) but most shocking revelations, to me personally, have been about the sociology of all this, to be honest. I underestimated many dynamics. 2021-04-12 14:11:40 @BStulberg I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't witnessed this over the past year. He has an enormous, if not determining influence over WHO policies, along with people there who seem to agree with him, and it's now a year of enormous evidence. They barely budged, and only when pushed. 2021-04-12 13:59:17 @BStulberg He essentially runs the whole WHO infection guidelines in this area from what I can tell, and has been on the record strongly dismissing aerosol transmission from month one. (Lifelong hand-washing expert. Good on that, but... Yep, exactly what it sounds like). 2021-04-12 13:58:08 @BStulberg Do watch it. He dismisses an enormous amount of evidence, cites his own (non-peer reviewed non-public) study in an area he's not an expert, dismisses the expert IN THAT VERY AREA in the zoom and the published work, and then says "acne" when epi doc says what about N95s for HCW? 2021-04-12 13:19:02 On how things are *now* I'd recommend the whole debate referenced below, between scientists and the chair of the WHO Infection Prevention and Control working group. (When asked about N95 for healthcare workers, he said "acne" as his top objection. Really.) https://t.co/lbOY4VeLFC 2021-04-12 02:44:25 RT @MatthewJDalby: Worth reading the whole post by @zeynep. Three key points. Airborne transmission. Clusters driving the epidemic. Pres… 2021-04-12 01:38:04 @wanderer_jasnah @insight You’re very welcome! 2021-04-12 01:35:41 @SeanTrende I’d be totally fine with any actually bad news being fully reported. This isn’t it. 2021-04-11 22:26:56 @himmoderator Thank you! 2021-04-11 18:49:29 @#!!#$! https://t.co/PtICseaxAD 2021-04-11 18:44:25 What on earth? Again, we should keep an eye on variants especially in those (yeay, rare!) vaccine breakthrough cases (which are known from the trials) but THAT STUDY WAS EXCELLENT NEWS OVERALL ON THAT ASPECT. These headlines are wildly misleading. h/t @TheHeidenator https://t.co/SakwpQJx7S 2021-04-11 17:52:20 @thomasafine That is not true, though. Multiple studies show infection blocking from the vaccines, some comfortably in the range of 80-90% (varies across context but it's definitely there). 2021-04-11 17:40:42 @DKThomp @notdred It's already all over my inbox, but not by the vaccine hesitant (who aren't my social circles) but by people who think the study was terrible news because of how it's being framed by respectable orgs. 2021-04-11 17:38:34 Here's a better headline, adding that the findings about vaccine breakthroughs (which we already knew would happen (duh!) about and should track by sequencing) are turning out to be really encouraging so far. https://t.co/UqCgGlq60N 2021-04-11 17:36:52 @dariusm11 Nope. 2021-04-11 17:36:39 @zchagla Yeah and I'm totally baffled by the lack of open curiosity about it all. I can only hope a bunch of studies are underway? 2021-04-11 17:35:49 I've already been sent an alarming headline by a respectable organization, and see below. A co-author is on Twitter explaining it it, folks! Come on. FWIW, the study itself made me feel *better* about both the mRNA vaccines and the threat of B.1.351 (which we should track). https://t.co/Z11qY0gv2d 2021-04-11 17:32:07 @notdred Just got sent an alarming framing/headline by a respectable organization already. *headdesk* https://t.co/VWIcdOfmY8 2021-04-11 17:29:03 @DrMoragKerr @Gurdur @insight Could you tell me where this was, and if it was reported on? (DM is fine). Thank you. 2021-04-11 17:23:11 If anyone is going to write about the latest Israel/variant study, I suggest noting: this informative thread by one of the co-authors 2021-04-11 17:20:37 @mboudry Thank you! 2021-04-11 17:17:17 @gushamilton @PaulSaxMD Thank you! 2021-04-11 17:12:43 @BillHanage Instead of the inevitable panicked pronouncements over B.1.351 and vaccine evasion? Or another round of discussing the South African variant without ever mentioning what actually happened in South Africa? You have strange ideas. 2021-04-11 16:27:17 @timbray That's just the kind of thing the public health authorities should provide recommendations for! I think it's fine for people to explain things like efficacy etc. but individual risk calculations really should be public health authority guided. 2021-04-11 14:47:04 @statesdj No clue! Honestly this is the first time I looked it up online and I had not noticed that before. (It was published in the print version and I'd seen that and was grateful and flattered etc. but honestly, my job was already so amazing so it wasn't the biggest deal). 2021-04-11 14:34:12 I *do* get an enormous amount of constant push-back that's a version of "how dare you write about all this!". Fine, that's part of writing for the public, and I'll let my pandemic record answer that question. But the idea that it's some career move is, frankly, absurd. ktxbye 2021-04-11 14:28:30 I'm already tenured, honored to have had a chance to contribute, had next year's (visiting for now) move to Columbia U already in place and *delayed* by the pandemic. Say whatever else you want about me writing as an outsider, but no, it wasn't an effort to boost my career, lol. 2021-04-11 14:25:27 I get this a lot, I'm gonna say this. This was my career before the pandemic (that's a profile from 2018). I'm super proud of my efforts past year, but all of it was a huge *risk* for me, at a moment when I was more than comfortable in my existing career. https://t.co/ApZxiEbo39 https://t.co/4k2hlqBq21 https://t.co/ygVHQbohFR 2021-04-11 14:17:49 @tonypalumbi And is also proud of her record the whole year, so maybe there is a right way to do it? Thanks for the compliment, I guess. 2021-04-11 13:57:31 RT @dylanhmorris: @BrianRWasik Serious suggestion: report VE to media as "estimated x-fold reduction in risk" 2021-04-11 13:43:52 @MADDMAAM He had a major role, for sure, but that’s just not true that was all. How do you explain Western Europe and what happened at WHO and what didn’t happen here (with all our universities and independent experts?) That’s a story we’re telling ourselves. 2021-04-11 13:19:08 We need an NTSB style (no-blame) investigation into what went wrong and why most Western nations’ scientific apparatus/authorities largely missed acting on some key basics that many other countries quickly realized because the evidence was so strong. Something went deeply wrong. 2021-04-11 13:09:04 @FiloSottile It’s more a communication problem, I guess, then mere innumeracy. Sigh 2021-04-11 13:07:00 @FiloSottile But that probably won’t communicate, either, because 100,000 people flying is still pretty low risk, because of ventilation, even without vaccination. That’s what the article is avoiding saying even though the rest of it isn’t bad if you read it sentence by sentence. 2021-04-11 12:50:04 For @insight, I wrote about the gaslighting of some basic facts about this pathogen that were evident by February of 2020: presymptomatic infectiousness, clusters and airborne transmission. (Other country’s scientists noted these and acted accordingly.) https://t.co/vg2xBP4qVO https://t.co/g7p2glfIg9 2021-04-11 12:43:19 Yeah. That’s why it isn’t a good way to represent the risk of flying even if you could concoct a scenario under which you can imagine that number. https://t.co/4TgyiyO5ot 2021-04-11 12:38:55 I realize it’s tough. Everyone is suddenly writing about the pandemic, no matter what their topic. And vaccine efficacy is a relative measure, so those are always pesky. But we’ve had the vaccines for many months now, and by now one would hope for a slightly better understanding. 2021-04-11 12:31:28 CNN article on how to safely fly claims that 90% vaccine efficacy means that for every million who fly, we could have 100,000 infections. NO NO NO. That’s not what that number means. Also, this didn’t even happen when millions flew unvaccinated. So how could it make sense now? https://t.co/4MLW5oFw4f 2021-04-11 12:14:57 RT @SMB06: Very insightful post by @zeynep. We had the evidence that 3 primary factors were driving the pandemic: airborne transmission, cl… 2021-04-11 03:44:00 RT @meslackman: In reality, a New York Times analysis of mortality data shows deaths in Russia during the pandemic last year were 28 percen… 2021-04-11 03:39:21 @P64947443 @seanmcarroll 2021-04-11 02:02:04 @aaronhuertas Thank you. 2021-04-10 17:50:29 @halvorz @notdred @NateSilver538 I completely understand how we got here (after last year) but I had been hoping that we'd have a bit more clarity and focus/narrowing of the communication channels to the public by now. I'm still constantly explaining "no, no 5% of vaccinated aren't destined to get sick anyway". 2021-04-10 17:16:22 @notdred @NateSilver538 Also not helping. Is it: Fauci won't travel because he's too busy (as he says in the article?) Is it: Fauci advises against travel despite CDC change on that? Is it: Fauci considers himself high-risk, at 80? I dunno, tbh. https://t.co/mIzazdQwxo 2021-04-10 17:13:47 @ProudExDemocrat @insight Thank you! 2021-04-10 17:13:06 @notdred @NateSilver538 Yeah. He's an 80-year-old person reportedly working 16 hour days and his "what I'm doing right now" shouldn't be interpreted as guidelines for risk-assessment for all vaccinated people, and I'm not even sure what he said, exactly, from that article. 2021-04-10 17:07:07 @notdred @NateSilver538 I'd like a little more official and consistent communication, and a little less freelancing by, however prominent, individuals being presented as general advice for everyone tbh. 2021-04-10 17:05:38 @notdred @NateSilver538 I'm not sure if some of this isn't the outlet framing? Did he really say " until we know for sure that vaccinated people don't spread the virus"? Like at all? That bar seems strikingly high? Also maybe we should look at CDC guidelines rather than one person who also says this: https://t.co/qgaiOgZ5zK 2021-04-10 15:06:48 @UniversalMaski2 @microlabdoc @Sarah__AF @DFisman Of course. I think a key point here is that "droplet precautions" aren't useless. They do a lot against aerosols as well (and a lot of good lab/mechanistic studies on why) especially if they are universal, but there is part of the risk curve outside it as well. 2021-04-10 14:49:03 @microlabdoc @DFisman Yeah varies by country/setting. US hospitals generally have aggressive ACH standards. 2021-04-10 14:17:29 @ZiaKhanNYC @RockefellerFdn Indeed. Thank you for saying this! There is so much benefit to cross-disciplinary, synthetic thinking for complex questions like these. 2021-04-10 14:16:32 @DFisman I think, eventually, there may well be really positive changes to transmission/disease management with all the new information and synthesis. Once you know what to look for—overdispersion, indoor/outdoor differences, role of ventilation, distance—I suspect we will find more. 2021-04-10 14:13:06 @DFisman But that "it's mostly droplets" is without direct evidence, has claims that violate biophysics on particle sizes etc., and contradicts key characteristics of the epidemiological record, whereas "it's mostly aerosols" has evidence and is strikingly consistent with the epi record. 2021-04-10 14:10:08 @DFisman I think one block to progress here has been lack of understand that what's called droplet precautions, of course, also dampen aerosol transmission (which concentrate near the emitting person) especially in well-ventilated places like US/Canada hospitals, and masks are universal.+ 2021-04-10 13:43:50 RT @jburnmurdoch: NEW: big international Covid data thread, focusing on the contest between vaccines & First to the UK, where thi… 2021-04-10 03:38:15 @butts_4_jesus @DZkhammer Yeah the global situation is so terrible. 2021-04-10 02:14:07 Also I don’t mean there isn’t great reporting. It’s just there is also a lot of the below examples, too. Very easy to get confused about the reality. https://t.co/JD8kkWiJRi 2021-04-10 01:29:34 @WhitneyEpi 2021-04-09 21:47:33 RT @JustTheFacts37: The lack of acceptance of communication around aerosol transmission really exacerbated not only direct outcomes, but pu… 2021-04-09 21:41:59 @gppeixoto Yeah that's kinda the least of your problems now, especially with vaccination rates so low... So sorry on how terrible it is. 2021-04-09 21:38:31 No, no let's talk on the phone! How about around 2AM your local time? Just leave your ringer on and I'l make sure it rings till you wake up! I'll happily do it till y'all change your font and make that "caffeinated" word more visible on your cans! https://t.co/hiHTompWV8 2021-04-09 21:35:59 (The "refuse to get vaccinated" folks probably aren't listening to me but I'd tell them here's an easy, safe and effective way to bring your own individual risk from this pathogen back to baseline levels, and then I can tell you to stop following media too closely as well.) 2021-04-09 21:33:34 United States of Epistemic Fracture. Also: vaccinated folks should feel free to stop following most media for a while, in my opinion. It's really difficult to get informed rather than misinformed, right about now. https://t.co/30qKqCnkYq 2021-04-09 18:16:29 @MatthewDavidH Sorry to hear! Wishing a lot of vaccination and no community transmission to your area. 2021-04-09 17:48:46 @fartleksburpees @DrJacobsRad @BogochIsaac @jkwan_md @CDCgov @NIH @apoorva_nyc No problem, thank you for the kind words. 2021-04-09 17:19:14 @MatthewDavidH Yes, unfortunately though I have seen some churches move outdoors, and perhaps with increasing vaccination, singing will again go back to baseline risk of life. (Maybe not the same acoustics outdoors, but still the same activity). 2021-04-09 16:39:34 @marc_cart I encountered that argument as well. It could be done carefully, rather than in a panic-inducing way for sure. Many countries did just that. 2021-04-09 16:38:54 @maxpearl ugh 2021-04-09 16:38:05 @ClancyNeil @solutions_covid @TheAtlantic Thank you so much for the kind words! Always thrilled to hear my work has been useful. 2021-04-09 16:28:28 RT @solutions_covid: So, @zeynep was, already last summer, looking at overdispersion and the importance of #ClusterBusting to interrupt tra… 2021-04-09 16:27:30 @DFisman “we found support for the theory that superspreaders generate other superspreaders, even when controlling for number of secondary infections” I keep wondering about that possibility as it would be so striking in its implications if so (will read full paper carefully). 2021-04-09 16:16:02 RT @DFisman: Backward contact tracing has an outsized impact on control of COVID-19. Updated work from @LSHTM 's Akira Endo, @AdamJKuchars… 2021-04-09 16:05:28 @robxlii Well, a lot of experts and WHO were very explicitly pushing in the other direction. Also in this case aerosols weren't just "a possibility", it was clearly the only sensible main theory, and everything else a remote, remote unlikely thing to keep in mind. 2021-04-09 16:02:00 @Ella4the98th @halvorz But that will be an interesting future trajectory to watch. 2021-04-09 16:01:22 @Ella4the98th @halvorz I know it's a bit of a bold thing to say (for me!) but I've been working with people on the medical and aerosol side, and reading a lot of the lit/history, and I think we are due for a real advance in our understanding of it all, and shedding of a lot of evidence-free tradition. 2021-04-09 15:59:49 @Ella4the98th @halvorz That's not exactly the right conceptualization, imho. My current read is R0 does not directly map onto aerosolness, so to speak, especially since R0 is an average and SARS-Cov-2 is overdispersed. I honestly think the whole field will shift, dramatically, once we catch our breath. 2021-04-09 15:55:39 Tragic—maybe fomites did contribute to this pandemic, but by diverting our scarce resources and attention away from primary drivers of transmission. (Dr. Jimenez is among the top scientists working on aerosols and COVID, and great for practical advice). https://t.co/2VOivpy7SW 2021-04-09 15:47:23 @robxlii Yeah, been there the whole time. Aerosols got acknowledged begrudgingly—when it could no longer be denied or seen as AGP-driven—and as something after droplet/fomite considerations. Effective mitigation requires realizing this is likely the primary route, not afterthought. 2021-04-09 15:44:16 There is nothing wrong with hand-washing. It's general good practice. What is wrong has been the very lengthy official and expert lack of acknowledgment and proper prioritization of the obvious and, crucially, big role of aerosols & 2021-04-09 15:38:33 @halvorz I may have learned a lot of things about this particular pathogen this year, but my biggest lessons and shocks for me are more about my own field, the social dynamics of it all. 2021-04-09 15:37:36 @halvorz It was incredible. There was a huge amount of pushback, speculation about chair-stacking, snack sharing whatnot and, frankly, a lot of undue snark on social media, and a lot of "why aren't you considering all the possibilities" from people in positions of official power. 2021-04-09 03:59:37 RT @nathanheller: Story of a 66-year-old researcher, an immigrant, who rarely got grants, never got her own lab, never earned more than $60… 2021-04-09 02:47:17 @ChrisJonFrank Pretty much! 2021-04-09 02:33:33 @GYamey ! 2021-04-09 02:32:18 It tastes “why am I awake at 2am oh well let me read this paper but this is unusual this is two nights in a row now”. https://t.co/7kxR9amd62 2021-04-09 02:25:21 I’m not alone!!! https://t.co/ThfZcsrrpE 2021-04-09 02:24:28 @kvanaren I know right!!! 2021-04-09 02:24:11 Who the heck makes caffeinated “sparkling water” and how did I end up buying it??? 2021-04-09 02:22:41 Monday:“What’s disrupting my sleep? Everything is routine.” Wednesday:“Weird. Can’t sleep one day, crash the next.” Thursday morning:“I got this! Wake up, outdoors, go for a run!” Thursday night: “What does it say on the carbonated water I’ve been drinking at bedtime?” https://t.co/X3tewK8y3r 2021-04-09 01:28:11 @awgaffney Indeed. https://t.co/tC832yzFPa 2021-04-08 23:13:50 @AaronRichterman Yeah. It’s not as convincing to me as it appears sometimes in discussions. I’d rate it “not likely” as a prior but open to more evidence. Still, the current surge is clearly a crisis—maybe not of reinfections necessarily. 2021-04-08 23:05:48 @iskander 2021-04-08 19:28:17 Yeah sorry about that! I should just keep writing long-form about all this (I will!). https://t.co/YQ7u13Kjfa 2021-04-08 18:56:13 Seeing a lot of this in Long Covid discussions, too. We should be able to say that post-viral sequelae/Long Covid is real, important and too often neglected without ignoring baseline comparisons or turning it into something so ill-defined that it becomes easier to ignore/dismiss. 2021-04-08 18:48:29 Too often, a call for nuance and epistemic humility is conflated with inaction & 2021-04-08 18:46:08 Adding this as it's important even though it's sprinkled in the thread. Potential confounders make confident conclusions hard—but it's also hard to rule out direct causation. We can, and should, act against exponential threats even when facing uncertainty. https://t.co/e5VhBPC03b 2021-04-08 16:24:03 Stellar comment in response to my last newsletter (about the unfathomable celebration of Florida's "Grim Reaper" attorney dude who was harassing people on beaches): "Nuance can feel like signal-weakening, so people over-signal to push the equilibrium." https://t.co/OyqNOFuDbm https://t.co/9hVO2woq4T 2021-04-08 16:13:58 @wsbgnl @Listen49698651 @WesPegden I am for, and wrote among the earliest pieces, calling for preemptive measures. That is not the same as here's a line that's going up and up modeling. That's not credible. As for support: "it's temporary" has little credibility, but maybe other things could work. I don't know. 2021-04-08 16:06:06 @WalterManninoJr You're very welcome. 2021-04-08 15:14:31 RT @JenniferNuzzo: There was a large spike in #covid19 deaths reported in the US yesterday. This is due to Oklahoma's reporting of previous… 2021-04-08 14:32:10 @Burgos Exactly. A lot of things may well explain rise in younger patients dying, especially compared to a whole year ago. 2021-04-08 14:30:15 Anyway, h/t to the tweet/meme from @jbakcoleman last night that inspired this thread. https://t.co/0wEf999P4l 2021-04-08 14:25:34 @Burgos Could be just more transmissibility plus hospital collapse. Don’t need much more than that, necessarily, to see what we’re tragically seeing there. May also be more severe—possible. But definitely too early, and “disporportionately severe on the young” seems like a giant stretch. 2021-04-08 14:20:30 @Burgos It raises the question but doesn’t answer. Good analysis is the ability to tell the difference rather than rigid rules like “correlation doesn’t imply causation” (except when it does) or “absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence” (except when it is because you are looking). 2021-04-08 14:07:43 @statsepi I know. I am fascinated by the inference part (have always been) but I’ve been writing on the policy side and my sense is that we know broadly enough for the policy side but there really are big open remaining questions on the causal side. 2021-04-08 14:06:19 @EricTopol Exactly. Their epidemic response has been much better (hence managed to keep things under control earlier, too) so it is a good comparison case for the murky situation. Their numbers are also more reliable. But they are also now having a real surge/outbreak. 2021-04-08 14:00:01 We all would like more clarity—me too!—but some things aren’t easy to figure out, and for good reason. Even “paper published” (peer-reviewed or not!) isn’t the end of the story. There really is a process, and I think it works well when we let it, but it takes time and engagement. 2021-04-08 13:56:11 Anyway, things are bad enough in many places around the world. There is definitely more transmissibility with at least some of the variants—and those will soon become dominant in places with outbreaks—and maybe some other effects mixed in (a lot less certainty on that). 2021-04-08 13:53:15 Of course! I am honestly not drawing firm conclusions on what may or may not be happening. But the idea that one can look at ICU/death rates from *March 2020* and compare them to 2021 numbers and draw conclusions like Dr. Feigl-Ding does? Not a good idea and, imo, not helpful. https://t.co/o997Twr0En 2021-04-08 13:49:56 As a simple cautionary example on not being too confident about reinfections driving Brazil’s P1 surge, compare with Uruguay (no past surge, hence cannot be reinfections). Uruguay also has P1 at least rising. Maybe earlier blood-bank sero study is unrepresentative? Hard to know. https://t.co/NMIDvIVKtr 2021-04-08 13:44:38 And more. These things really are hard, and there is no contradiction between epistemic humility when we do not yet understand all the characteristics of a surge/variant, and advocating to do all we can to limit the suffering regardless. https://t.co/69zfELMsnP 2021-04-08 05:18:17 @jbakcoleman @DrEricDing You mean we can’t just eyeball rates between earlier times and the current hospital collapse and likely higher transmissibility just like that to confidently figure out severity or severity by age? https://t.co/QATcoSIGCt 2021-04-08 05:01:29 RT @HuffmanLabDU: Exasperating this is still a thing, after a year of constant messaging that plexiglass partitions do not block viral aero… 2021-04-08 04:39:57 @halvorz Never a better tool to be informed, never a worse tool to be misinformed. Something something. 2021-04-08 04:33:26 @radarskiy @MattGertz Zeynep is the top female name in Turkey, probably has been for decades. Plus it’s common across the world with slightly different spellings. I live in both worlds! 2021-04-08 04:30:28 @CT_Bergstrom The paper even, responsibly and informatively, has a comparison with other RTIs (16% higher for Covid). But yeah never mind. 2021-04-08 04:25:38 Not a single COVID-19 case among the vaccinated 12-15 year olds in the trial vs. 18 in the placebo group. (n=2260). https://t.co/oulD8cOTFE 2021-04-08 04:13:16 @MattGertz Should look into forming a club with (the right) Naomi. https://t.co/hjMdBTysm3 2021-04-08 03:49:30 @jbakcoleman @DrEricDing @terrence_mccoy Good luck. (Many have tried and failed, but go forth with courage.) 2021-04-08 02:40:01 @DFisman https://t.co/UZ770HGOnB 2021-04-08 02:12:24 @dailypostdan It's tough. Everyone has their own problems, too. 2021-04-08 02:07:27 I'm really worried about the rest of the world, many facing surges with more transmissibility, without vaccines, population tired, economies challenged... That's how things head also into unchecked exponential growth and hospital collapse. Like Brazil. We need to act, globally. 2021-04-08 02:04:08 @Bill_Wilson_1 Yeah that's terrible. 2021-04-08 02:02:13 So, we will be (mostly) fine in the United States, but if we can vaccinate faster, especially where the outbreaks are surging, we can minimize the suffering. But there are so many countries around the world facing terrible outbreaks, and not enough vaccines to go around. 2021-04-08 02:00:32 Yes, yes and yes. Although some of the vaccines have maybe taken a bit of a hit against their ability to prevent symptomatic disease (but not necessarily severe disease), all of them appear to work very well against this one & 2021-04-08 01:56:44 It's been just three months, and we're facing regional surges with increasing hospitalizations and deaths already, despite the biggest successful vaccination program in the world. That's how exponential threats work. By the time we get it together, the challenge is much harder. 2021-04-07 17:05:38 @Moonalice Thanks, and I do want to be clear, I am genuinely reflecting on what I can do myself, to try to be better at it (rather than some pronouncement about others). 2021-04-07 17:01:16 (Not excluding myself! Not a subtweet, just a reflection!) 2021-04-07 17:01:05 I'm increasingly convinced that clear thinking is primarily a struggle against motivated reasoning, with most everything else we tend to see as important and central instead playing a supporting role in that fight. 2021-04-07 16:24:17 @ianbassin @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter In other words, I don't think we can rule it out for P1, but in my view, we can definitely rule in B.1.1.7 as a very thorny threat. More research into P1 is well-advised but unchecked spread amidst hospital collapse isn't some side player in Brazil's (horrific) numbers. 2021-04-07 16:21:04 @ianbassin @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter I'm all for more research, but there is extensive and fairly strong evidence-base that B.1.1.7 IS a huge threat, while our understanding of P1 is much weaker. Possible that Brazil is tragically & 2021-04-07 14:59:38 @DrZackaryBerger @gregggonsalves Thank you! 2021-04-07 14:59:01 @jmanooch @jonst0kes Where on earth do you get that? I'm talking about academic work on social movements, and how some questions get motivated/covered (Smith appears to be citing that literature, not creating it which was my point about the literature). 2021-04-07 14:53:03 @efb_1 @MonicaGandhi9 No, there is a quite strong and growing evidence base, and we are way beyond needing to use the limited and early data from the United States like in this thread (where we don't have good genomic surveillance anyway) in my opinion. 2021-04-07 14:36:51 @jonst0kes It's a bit like trying to explain why so many people keep eating regular food instead of just slurping Soylent and saving time. :-D 2021-04-07 14:34:58 @jonst0kes A lot of academic work on social movements is by people without significant involvement and hence little understanding in how they *feel* and motivations of participants, so you get too many theories trying to explain why people do it despite the cost (like free-riding concerns). 2021-04-07 14:19:26 @wanderer_jasnah Similarly baffled. B.1.1.7 has the strongest evidence base for being a huge threat. (P1: maybe, but the evidence base is weak, and Brazil situation may well mostly be unchecked spread + hospital collapse. B.1.351? South African actual epi data is totally ignored in assessment.) 2021-04-07 13:50:58 RT @Atul_Gawande: What public health officials are pulling off in this pandemic is simply extraordinary. They have not been celebrated near… 2021-04-07 12:47:07 @MonicaGandhi9 With all due respect, I think you are ignoring a significant amount of existing work/papers on B.1.1.7 on its transmissibility and its impact on disease severity, and understating how hard it was for UK and Israel to get it under control—a testament to the two former points. 2021-04-07 12:41:23 @rdmghost1 @angie_rasmussen @notdred @ClancyNeil @RidleyDM @Skychicken172 There isn't enough vaccines to purchase mainly because rich countries have bought up all the supply, and we are not doing enough to increase it. That's the problem right now, not just money. 2021-04-06 23:59:08 @halvorz 2021-04-06 23:20:27 @3rdandKing Thank you for the kind words. Just got a R& 2021-04-06 22:49:02 @angie_rasmussen @notdred @ClancyNeil @RidleyDM @Skychicken172 And I guess my personal bias/concern is that I’m connected to people around the world with no access to vaccines. The problem is urgent and here. Rankling to see so much (not that sound) speculation about maybe future threats or exaggerated variant headlines. 2021-04-06 22:45:28 @phealthsean @amymaxmen Heh. I am an outsider but my previous work has a for real overlap, especially since I work on the public sphere and trust, information, social dynamics etc. Sociology is part of the field, broadly. 2021-04-06 22:32:38 Yes. I am not denying that a second order effect could, sometimes, overwhelm a first order effect, but it's a bit reach and an epistemic move one should approach with great suspicion unless data is strong and mechanism actually realistic etc. https://t.co/7OpJD3vtLb 2021-04-06 22:28:51 Indeed. But as decades of research reveals, well, safety devices increase safety, and most things kinda work in straightforward ways. Poverty is alleviated by—gasp—money, health is improved by effective vaccines, seatbelts make cars safer, etc. https://t.co/EdMoT2snGC 2021-04-06 22:23:39 Anyway, when many people in a community are vaccinated, those who cannot yet be vaccinated (like young people for whom we don't yet have vaccines, but will soon) are less likely to be infected. It's exactly what one should expect, but nice to see a paper. https://t.co/6LPFVqhMZ7 https://t.co/sD5kThfQmU 2021-04-06 22:21:02 I don't why it's so easy to believe this idea (with us since seat belts, at least) that the benefits of something that works to greatly increase safety will be undone by people becoming so reckless that it overwhelms the safety benefit, but it seems so pervasive. 2021-04-06 22:18:25 There was recently a claim (in Nature!) that increased vaccination may not help us reach herd immunity because "people will increase their interactions". Real life data says: as vaccination rates increased, rates of infection among the unvaccinated under 16-year-olds *decreased.* https://t.co/0xGuLApxrl 2021-04-06 21:47:10 @ashishkjha That's so heartwarming! 2021-04-06 20:33:26 RT @DrLeanaWen: BREAKING: President Biden announcing that he will be moving up "open season" for vaccines for all Americans from May 1st to… 2021-04-06 20:08:59 @SamFazeli8 @EricTopol @macroliter @VirusWhisperer The screenshot (which is the article, not Eric's words) seems correct as written, though, no? "Even if" is not a claim that it is 2021-04-06 19:57:13 @fredbenenson I don't fully know, but I suspect a combination of: scientific illiteracy (the amount of bad science even in science journalism! Mind-blowing!) plus overcorrection (under-warned last Jan/Feb/early Mar 2020) plus traffic/demand. 2021-04-06 19:51:02 @jbakcoleman https://t.co/pPMDfEAaNF 2021-04-06 19:21:04 @MatthewDavidH Thank you. 2021-04-06 15:29:29 @erikbryn @joshgans @RabeeTourky @Ground_app Yikes, hush. We don't talk of that. 2021-04-06 14:59:25 @amandakfried Why no books??? 2021-04-06 14:51:26 Here's an earlier documentary on coding where I do my best to explain why machine learning is different, and what some of the implications are. https://t.co/PLr3YCzWrW 2021-04-06 14:44:20 I've just learned that this documentary on the question of algorithms/machine learning/bias is available on Netflix! (Lol, yes, I had a life before the pandemic, too). https://t.co/JS32gdU2tZ 2021-04-06 14:24:17 @dubiousraves I see it everyday, so I don't think it's rare--I define it as the headline profoundly or moderately misrepresents to the story to the point that the actual point of the writing is gravely undermined. 2021-04-06 14:08:11 @TFDark @jbarro No it does not, actually. Chile is too early in the process for us to tell if the P1 variant (may well be dominant there) has a differential impact compared with the wildtype for the vaccine it’s using, Sinovac, for which we have fairly little data to begin with. 2021-04-06 14:03:03 @notdred I know, and yes reality will demonstrate, but people are freaking out now and focusing on the wrong thing. I don’t like the “I’ll take a bet” etc. stuff (feels like a stunt) but I’d take large bets against a good deal of the pronouncements (to be paid to any global health NGO). 2021-04-06 13:59:05 @kindenough2018 @notdred It is so not just him. It’s many in the respected “in” group, too, and it’s all over news media. Too easy to blame him (though he’s never helping with these things—at least with him, there is pushback). I mean, yeah for sure, something to keep an eye out for the future etc. 2021-04-06 13:56:18 @notdred I’m really at a loss what to do. Not blaming people. It’s in the news, it’s coming from (otherwise well-credentialed) experts. And seems the (many) who know better don’t openly pushback because parts of pandemic/expert social media has become so cliquish and hostile? Not sure. 2021-04-06 13:52:23 This is sadly true. My number one advice to all writers: do try to negotiate for, at a minimum, veto over headline/title if not a cooperative process. Journalist unions should make this an issue, as well. Many people only see the headline, and a bad headline can be catastrophic. https://t.co/S5gdPdqF9y 2021-04-06 13:45:12 Flabbergasted at how much speculative worrying there is out there against current/future variants making our vaccines completely “ineffective” (I’ll easily take a bet against that) when the real issue is we have AMAZING vaccines that DO work, but not enough of them for the world! 2021-04-06 13:11:53 @n_stenhou @dwallacewells If they define what they mean by ineffective (vaccines no longer have any impact on severe illness or worse, say) I will take (large to me) bet to be paid to a global health charity of their choice. So obviously wrong. This is partly why people don’t believe us on climate etc. 2021-04-06 02:00:45 As one does. https://t.co/lqFrQwT0g3 2021-04-06 01:30:57 RT @linseymarr: CDC finally recognizes that the risk of transmission by touching contaminated surfaces is very low. Credit for changing hor… 2021-04-05 23:52:07 @DrLeanaWen @SaskiaPopescu @JAMAPediatrics 2021-04-05 22:07:14 @theycallmemorty Yeah, and that also hits another interest: world historical infrastructure projects, especially if they involve straits or other navigational chokepoints! (From Istanbul...) 2021-04-05 22:04:47 @angela_walch Thank you! Immediately downloaded the paper. May come back to you with questions about the primary documents. This is such fascinating history. 2021-04-05 22:02:37 @agonistesatlast I ordered it as fast as I could type! Thank you! 2021-04-05 21:59:41 @AbraarKaran 2021-04-05 21:56:30 @1of7e9 I wouldn't trust me to recommend, because when I'm interested in a topic, I have a fairly high tolerance for reading almost anything, including, frankly, boring or badly written stuff, because I'm trying to understand/glean for information. 2021-04-05 21:50:03 @offhandmanor1 It's fascinating, and I highly recommend reading some primary documents. 2021-04-05 21:42:56 Anyway, I probably already read all the big/mainstream yellow fever books (many before the pandemic, don't ask, I have weird hobbies) but feel free to send any recs of lesser known books/papers about the epistemology/historic struggle to understand yellow fever's transmission. 2021-04-05 21:36:01 @ajlamesa Hence the word "ahistorical" in my tweet. 2021-04-05 21:34:39 Me, curious: "Yellow Fever" is trending! Historically and epistemologically, it's one of the most interesting infectious diseases. A new book about it? Me, dejected: Oh, another ahistorical vaccine passport discussion. (Yeah, I have a yellow fever card exactly because of travel). https://t.co/WTWD6r2i85 2021-04-05 21:26:29 @iamtaraberg Because I'm not out to misinform myself? VAERS is an open system: anyone can submit whatever they want, without any checks. The point is to go back and investigate, which is done for credible reports. The trials, otoh, are tightly monitored and that's where the above comes from. 2021-04-05 21:18:46 @PatriotSkyrific Very rarely, there have been allergic reactions which are easy to treat, but that means it's important to wait for the 15 minute observation period after your shots. Other than that, remarkable record of safety 2021-04-05 19:54:03 For those wondering how incorrect guidelines still block better pandemic mitigations: Despite Dr. Wen's heroic attempt here to divert, the incorrect description (basically copied from guidelines) helps drive the beach panic. If that were true, yeah indoor/outdoor would be same. https://t.co/NAp4dVtgIV 2021-04-05 19:51:20 @REALDEAL3132 "Both patients were over 80 years old and suffered from underlying health issues." Many many many more would have without the vaccines. Even common cold infections causes few deaths among 80+ year-olds with health issues, tragically. The statistics are a resounding success. 2021-04-05 19:43:49 @REALDEAL3132 YES AMAZING SUCCESS: "representing less than 0.01% of all fully vaccinated individuals in the northwestern U.S. state. Most cases were patients who experienced only mild symptoms, if any, according to a press release from the Washington State Department of Health." Incredible. 2021-04-05 17:13:01 RT @HelenBranswell: Pretty interesting report of #Covid19 transmission during church services in Australia. Infected choir member appears t… 2021-04-05 17:07:32 RT @BrendanNyhan: Coming up at 1 PM ET (in a few minutes!) - I'll be speaking along with @askdrfitz, @zeynep, and Garth Graham, YouTube's G… 2021-04-05 15:37:04 @dwallacewells FFS. Maybe that sample is not how we should be surveying or amplifying. 2021-04-05 15:34:02 @darrenhoyt What's the source for that one? Sigh. 2021-04-05 15:05:52 @matthewherper Yeah. I sent it out this morning because I saw another round of "but variants/vaccines" coverage and didn't see this news breakthrough the noise. I usually wait for papers (burnt by AZ!) but Pfizer releases seem to track later papers well. 2021-04-05 14:34:22 Yeah. I constantly hear people invoke "immune evasion" (almost always a partial indication from studies that do not pertain to the whole immune system) as if it means vaccines becoming useless against variants. No! Anyway, let's vaccinate the world, ASAP. https://t.co/LNUiyse9TM 2021-04-05 14:28:59 Folks asking: We already know the two mRNA vaccines also overwhelmingly cut down any infection, including silent asymptomatic ones, *and* studies indicate even breakthrough disease after vaccination has lower viral load (hence likely less infectious). https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN https://t.co/EdWaVcmkxp 2021-04-05 14:18:13 Let me add: as vaccination scales to millions there will be some "breakthrough" cases—even few severe ones, especially among the elderly. Even common colds can cause deadly outbreaks in nursing homes. But every piece of real life data so far looks great. https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN https://t.co/k6L9BH4ulC 2021-04-05 14:00:31 I'm grateful to the scientists doing their job and worrying about, studying and developing boosters against variants. The rest of us should focus on vaccinating the world as fast as possible, and especially what more transmissible/severe variants mean for the *unvaccinated.* 2021-04-05 13:50:24 Why do trials measure symptomatic COVID and report that as efficacy? Faster, easier. Why do many studies measure parts of the immune system that prevent symptoms but not the rest? Same. That's why real life trial data > 2021-04-05 13:43:48 @wiscoDude Thank you. 2021-04-05 13:43:11 Do I want high efficacy numbers? Of course. But efficacy in trials only pertains to symptomatic COVID. Vaccines also work on other parts of the immune system that kick in only after infection takes hold (disease) but can prevent progression to severe disease and hospitalizations. 2021-04-05 13:38:45 I've realized many have the incorrect mental model of the immune system: we conceive of it as a protective wall with a fixed height, and assume that vaccine efficacy represents that height. Wrong. I wrote a post explaining what trials do and don't measure. https://t.co/m2D5sInuoz https://t.co/zXKrWKUSLA 2021-04-05 13:33:42 There's so much consternation over vaccines losing efficacy or, worse, becoming useless against the variants. I'm not against worrying, and of course we should study this but keep in mind most of those results are lab studies that look at only a small part of the immune system. 2021-04-05 13:31:18 More good news. Pfizer has the six month update. *Zero* hospitalizations among the vaccinated vs. 32 among the placebo group (n=46,307). Also real life data from South Africa, where B.1.351 is dominant: zero cases of COVID among the vaccinated vs. nine in the placebo (n=800). https://t.co/2mLOh4LlRN 2021-04-05 12:25:14 RT @linseymarr: Here's the final version of the paper on the outbreak at a restaurant in Jan 2020 by Yuguo Li's team. This and the choir ca… 2021-04-05 12:20:54 @beimwort We are never gonna give it up. 2021-04-05 02:28:32 @Hold2LLC @JeffBullard16 @Scottch04 Ping back tomorrow? There are multiple papers exactly on this dimension. Hard on Twitter. 2021-04-05 02:20:45 @JeffBullard16 @Scottch04 @Hold2LLC That’s the part most thoroughly debunked. Risk compensation isn’t a very weak theory: always raised, but empirically doesn’t hold up. It just attracts people who like contrarian seeming people so it goes on. 2021-04-05 02:18:47 @odaraia @mehdirhasan Thank you! 2021-04-05 00:57:33 @Hold2LLC @Scottch04 There are questions and issues. But not those. 2021-04-05 00:56:48 @Hold2LLC @Scottch04 And that WHO committee report laundry lists everything, and those are studies of medical workers in medical settings. Yes, by all means, a person working in an Ebola ward could self-infect through inappropriate doffing. Not applicable to NO masks—clearly and obviously worse. 2021-04-05 00:54:47 @Hold2LLC @Scottch04 The below is a study comparing barely washed cloth masks *to surgical masks* and not to no masks, and the author has clarified it so many times since that they put a note on top of the article. 2021-04-05 00:53:46 @Hold2LLC @Scottch04 Yes the below had been thoroughly debunked. + https://t.co/HwaHb9QKNB 2021-04-05 00:44:15 @AaronToponce @BernieSanders You don’t say! 2021-04-05 00:34:12 Me, I plan to talk about herd immunity and the rest. Still, I think the tween had the more fun idea. https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN https://t.co/gzhlOnNouJ 2021-04-05 00:30:55 I've been emailed a QR code. With all the disclaimers that I did not try this myself, hi @BernieSanders. https://t.co/PzHcLK8l2J 2021-04-05 00:28:27 Me to tween: "I'll be in the office now for a quick interview." Tween: "blah blah no why but.." Me trying to elicit cooperation of tween (who's been to a Sanders rally): "Bernie Sanders is also being interviewed!" Tween, ears perking up: "Can you try to rickroll him?" Me:... https://t.co/ctI7ulJ7a1 2021-04-04 23:15:52 @AbhijitYB @SaadOmer3 2021-04-04 22:28:25 @McLellan_Lab @dan_grey @macroliter @EricTopol @VirusWhisperer Thank you! And also thank you and your lab. What a contribution that has been. (Yes I know: many others are working on many things and, so does your lab). But 2P is one of my favorite “and the science turned up just in time” stories this pandemic. 2021-04-04 22:22:44 @BrianRWasik @BillHanage @dylanhmorris Lol 2021-04-04 21:26:01 @dan_grey @macroliter @EricTopol @VirusWhisperer Yes it does. AstraZeneca and Sputnik do not. So Johnson & 2021-04-04 21:18:10 @JeffBullard16 @slowphotograph2 @BillHanage Yeah. Partial immune escape, mostly neutralizing antibody measures, rest less clear and samples were very small with confidence intervals crossing zero. I don't have an answer. I'm just baffled how many well-credentialed experts say things like vaccines are "useless" against it. 2021-04-04 21:15:50 @PhilippeDelecto @MonicaGandhi9 @drlucymcbride @BillHanage I guess for some purposes, and where genomic surveillance is sufficient, but in most places, we wouldn't even be able to do that (though we can figure out when/if it becomes dominant and its trajectory). 2021-04-04 21:13:45 @Scottch04 @Hold2LLC Because that thesis has come up for four decades against every safety device, has been thoroughly debunked every time, and also came up this time, and got data debunked again, I wrote it in papers and articles, and am writing more. At some point, I can't keep tweeting against it. 2021-04-04 21:12:32 @Hold2LLC @districtai I actually wrote about just that last November. Before the big surge. https://t.co/QhfmJv2N0u https://t.co/HaOug4xfMp 2021-04-04 19:30:24 @SaadOmer3 Maybe even worse since ACE2 receptors that SARS-CoV-2 latches onto more along the upper nasal epithelium so pulling the mask down lowers one's own protection, but probably not as much the source-control for aerosols one is exhaling. That tent, though. Ugh. https://t.co/c5bfGziZHP 2021-04-04 19:24:18 @marick It's a great book! 2021-04-04 19:05:51 @nataliexdean *by 2021-04-04 18:50:08 @districtai @Hold2LLC Wow, the misplaced overconfidence in response to a call for data-driven epistemic humility. Don’t let anyone interrupt, I guess? 2021-04-04 18:23:43 @nataliexdean Oh wow. That’s... Well, at least it’s not done but a Nobel Laureate. 2021-04-04 18:01:25 @EpiEllie We don't have a rigid formula but... unexplained, unsupported changes may seem like goalpost moving & 2021-04-04 17:13:12 @statesdj @BillHanage I totally agree. There are clearly big unknowns here that are being somewhat ignored—to put it less diplomatically. I feel like we are being epistemologically over-confident which is fueling lack of curiosity/research into deeply relevant and quite interesting remaining puzzles. 2021-04-04 17:08:06 @StephenBDugmore @BillHanage Right, though the data/experience of last year makes it clear people react to surges outside of NPI mandates. Hence I wish there was real curiosity & 2021-04-04 17:05:53 @CT_Bergstrom I tried to explain both the overshoot and how remaining large numbers of unvaccinated people can interact with local outbreaks in a recent piece. My experience is that many people think of herd immunity like a switch rather than a population-level dynamic. https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN https://t.co/878bClZquB 2021-04-04 16:56:33 @LorenzKueng @slwirth Rather than primarily trying to predict public reaction, and preresponding to it, there should be reasoned decisions explained well, imo. 2021-04-04 16:54:39 @LorenzKueng @slwirth UK delayed boosters on basis of their scientific committee’s recommendations, very high uptake and plummeting cases. Europe (media and social media especially) trash-talked this as unscientific, ended up delaying anyway, among other things, and high hesitancy rates and in crisis. 2021-04-04 16:27:54 @BillHanage Yeah but not communicated clearly. Also, I get the "herd immunity threshold higher" point but.. that's also complicated by vaccine efficacy, plus given supply shortage and political moment/fatigue globally, in reality, it's going to mean "more infections, more quickly". 2021-04-04 16:25:46 @slwirth @LorenzKueng I co-proposed (an adaptive) trial where we'd delay booster in a carefully-monitored way, able to stop if negative signal, and despite some leading virologist/immunologist saying that was totally fine, some reacted as if it were anti-science. So here we are, without clearer data. 2021-04-04 16:06:56 @BillHanage (I am encouraging that person to either write it up or find a way to test it. A you say, we don't know but I'm just dying we aren't putting an extraordinary effort to try to tease out what on earth happened.) 2021-04-04 16:06:07 @BillHanage Discourse: B.1.1.7 will prolong the pandemic. (It will speed it up, but tragically). South African variant makes our vaccines "useless." (Neutralizing antibodies aren't the whole immune system and can we take a look at what's happened in the one place it's dominant?") *headdesk* 2021-04-04 16:03:41 @BillHanage One plausible path. Or a slight forward shift in incubation period that makes it more susceptible to NPIs (that one isn't my theory). 2021-04-04 15:59:05 @BillHanage Exactly. Been talking to people about it for a while and completely baffled by apparent lack of curiosity in the “discourse” about something so striking and relevant. 2021-04-04 15:53:11 @BillHanage Feels like it should get some attention??? It’s super interesting and obviously very relevant. Yet utterly missing from the “oh noes vaccines are useless against the SA variant” (which is obviously not what has been shown whatsoever but alas) message that’s now spreading. 2021-04-04 15:47:52 @BillHanage Me too! So much misunderstanding. (I’m working on someone else doing that piece!). 2021-04-04 15:46:07 @BillHanage So not all variants are “drawing things out.” Quite the contrary. On partial immune escape, just amazing how everyone is ignoring what *actually* happened in South Africa without widespread vaccination. It’s like the most important data doesn’t count. Baffling. 2021-04-04 15:44:31 @BillHanage Although I’m a little worried that partial immune escape and higher transmissibility are being conflated here. The latter will speed things up (rather than prolong it, as the headline implies) and bring the next phase around *sooner* but tragically so—more infections. 2021-04-04 03:34:19 RT @KBibbinsDomingo: “We should immediately match variant surges with vaccination surges that target the most vulnerable by going where the… 2021-04-04 03:27:43 @MoniMoniOnse Thank you! 2021-04-04 03:08:49 RT @DKThomp: The pandemic has broken a lot of brains. And while brain-brokenness is not evenly distributed, there are still a lot of left-w… 2021-04-04 03:03:01 @moskov @ZoeMcLaren @NateSilver538 @michaelmina_lab Recovery folks were calling for a trial. Not sure if they did start. A trial started in December would have given us solid comparisons without confounding and a way to roll this out while monitoring for negative signals. Real life data looks fine, but confounded, of course. 2021-04-04 03:00:52 Belgian police breaking up young people hanging out at... a park. A big, vast park. We’re more than a year in. We know where transmission primarily occurs and how. (Young ones are being encouraged to hang out indoors, I guess, where they won’t risk being trampled by horses.) https://t.co/dx5J0M1NzU 2021-04-04 02:50:39 @ZoeMcLaren @NateSilver538 @michaelmina_lab I don't think they can reschedule existing ones (complicated) but since I called for *a trial* on all this back in December, I've talked with a large number of immunologists/vaccinologists with varying strong opinions on booster intervals. Not one said three weeks sounds ideal. 2021-04-04 02:46:45 @MarieLamensch84 As I said, take some breaks and watch Jaws and return. The tragic part is that I know from Japanese epidemiologists that they used this example to figure out it was airborne, and took precautions. They published papers, too! 2021-04-04 02:44:02 @NateSilver538 @ZoeMcLaren @michaelmina_lab Yeah, many places are exactly like that. Even the CDC and the WHO—on the cautious side—say six weeks is okay (I'm putting aside everything else). I have not yet heard of a single reason beyond the obvious (speeding up trials) that the Pfizer has an unprecedentedly short interval. 2021-04-04 02:41:02 @DiseaseEcology I wrote a piece about exactly this, last week. @KBibbinsDomingo https://t.co/mD2e7RcCg1 2021-04-04 02:36:14 @graemeblake That's amazing 2021-04-04 02:31:12 @wegointothevoid US has so many jurisdictions with terrible voting laws/systems that it becomes hard to figure things out, but should definitely distinguish explicit intent and incompetence, too. (There is a mix of both in multiple places), 2021-04-04 02:29:26 @iAmLoserStar For some questions, and added bonus we don't even know the consequences. 2021-04-04 02:28:24 @graemeblake @LisaBarrettID Thank you! I'll take a look. Sounds very interesting as a test case. 2021-04-04 02:26:05 @3rdandKing Sorry! *scurries back to my lane* 2021-04-04 02:25:07 @ZoeMcLaren @michaelmina_lab I know but we've even been scheduling millions of people for *three week* intervals for Pfizer (almost certainly chosen to speed up trials since anything less than four weeks is essentially unprecedented in vaccine schedules—only exception I know is Japanese Encephalitis). 2021-04-03 22:10:38 @dabeard @mmasnick @nabihasyed @Radiolab @latifnasser Good to hear! 2021-04-03 21:56:00 @khmayer1 @PaulSaxMD Thank you! 2021-04-03 18:47:57 @NicoDelon World’s global health authority recommended to 7 billion people that they did not we need to wear masks if separated by 6 feet indoors until December 2020, still has wrong micron size and hygiene and plexiglass theater lives on. If that’s “periphery” to you, I’ll leave you to it. 2021-04-03 18:39:43 @edyson Thank you! 2021-04-03 17:52:59 @NicoDelon I think you should reread the current WHO guidelines, to see what paradigm is still dominant (despite ongoing and persistent opposition and evidence that, barring a paradigm dominance, should have knocked this theory down way lower). 2021-04-03 17:36:43 @Ruby @JillianDURM Yes 2021-04-03 17:21:05 @JillianDURM @Ruby No, they haven't... The number you're looking for is at least "one dose" as it includes people with both doses. But getting there hopefully soon. 2021-04-03 17:18:00 @DrLeanaWen The daily aaaaaw content we are all here for! Happy birthday to Isabelle! 2021-04-03 16:44:05 @SaskiaPopescu hahaha not sure if backhanded compliment or not 2021-04-03 16:42:49 @NicoDelon @venessb @jmcrookston @Globalbiosec @apoorva_nyc @normanswan That's further evidence of it happening, as we speak. 2021-04-03 15:54:51 @justinspratt Well, thank you but I'm usually wary of doing even the screenshot (seems lopsided) but this one was genuinely funny to me. 2021-04-03 15:52:18 @zchagla The result is a cloud of "variant" discourse which, I, too agree sometimes can be a big issue especially with more transmissible variants, but it's really a struggle to not have that collapse into the "But Variants!" discourse. I try, but honestly hard. 2021-04-03 15:51:00 @zchagla Third is it's intuitively difficult for people to understand why exponentials, just as they are, are a big threat, let alone when even more transmissible *and* details of immune escape hasn't been explained enough to the public (humoral vs cellular etc). 2021-04-03 15:49:33 @zchagla Yeah. I think there's a triple problem. Ideologically, variants sound scary (mutant, movie) and threatening to us. They sometimes are, sometimes aren't. Also ideologically, ignoring the obvious continued vulnerability of the essential workers/poor: well, that's what we've done. 2021-04-03 15:15:38 @zchagla (Also yes the way the South Africa trajectory is ignored is... fascinating. It clearly is suggesting key answers about partial immune escape -> 2021-04-03 15:13:41 brb updating bio. https://t.co/apjqTpFaZS 2021-04-03 15:11:44 @zchagla Exactly! We’re focused on things that sounds scary to us (what if it comes here), rather than appear to me to be the bigger drivers. I’m not against identifying variant threats (B.1.1.7!) but the evidence base here is relatively weak also, by itself, would be less catastrophic. 2021-04-03 15:06:29 @nataliexdean So many of our our crucial indicators (like R) and our thinking are keyed in for a non-overdispersed, higher k pathogen. When the mean is not the message... 2021-04-03 15:03:38 For Brazil, there’s a lot of focus on their variant which I believe has a weaker evidence base for its effects than the more systematically studied B.1.1.7. But unchecked exponential growth plus hospital system collapse will do just this, tragically, even without any variants. https://t.co/Pdl1XTsopQ 2021-04-03 14:39:53 @iskander @gregggonsalves @samhorwich @ezraklein I agree here. The key is distinguishing what does absolutely need strict process and why from where there is over-caution or inertia—and acknowledging latter exists. (I am agreeing with Gregg some, but also, I learned the latter more from the early AIDS activists, so some irony). 2021-04-03 04:29:00 RT @EricTopol: We discussed the variants, vaccines, and, notably, their potential for blocking asymptomatic transmission. Lots of optimism… 2021-04-03 01:47:09 @Copelahana You’re very welcome! 2021-04-03 01:34:05 @runasand The sad part is some did. Japan, for example, based its relatively successful strategy on those lessons. They published all the papers, too! 2021-04-02 17:08:55 @AmashCalifornia @COVID19digest1 Okay one last time before my block fingers gets itchy again (note to future lecturers, too). The science was there. The authorities were behind. I've written an enormous amount on this very topic. Lecture someone else. 2021-04-02 16:44:32 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Thank you, Ashish. We're not in a zero risk situation. But if we spend all of our time stressing rare events, we'll lose… 2021-04-02 16:33:10 @KarlBode There is both (widespread but anectodal) indicators of people with long covid reporting great improvement post-vaccination, and fascinating theoretical and empirical work by people like @VirusesImmunity that is encouraging. But complex topic, wait and see with data is key, imo. 2021-04-02 16:31:40 @KarlBode Data, no. Given how complex that topic is, we will need to wait and see, but I've been told by virology/immunity experts I trust that they expect the theorized long covid pathways to be susceptible to vaccination, so basically, yes to likely protection but they're waiting to see. 2021-04-02 16:10:08 What about all the good news? Well, two articles on some of that. https://t.co/sIzP9hYvUs and https://t.co/vn4A0JNPmD 2021-04-02 16:08:56 Folks asking about the current B.1.1.7 variant linked to these surges, here's my article (from the last day of the last year) trying to warn about it. https://t.co/FDVW17yeMQ 2021-04-02 16:06:57 For folks asking me about the current surge (in the US, and implicitly in other places but this piece is US focused). I wrote about that last week. https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN 2021-04-02 16:02:46 @COVID19digest1 And you keep telling me the very thing I've been writing about for about a year, my block finger will get itchier. 2021-04-02 15:59:57 @COVID19digest1 The science was known, authorities behind it. Which is something I've written about, multiple times. 2021-04-02 15:57:24 @COVID19digest1 Not the same whatsoever and very misleading statement. Essentially their chance of hospitalization or death is way below flu for people vaccinated against the flu. 2021-04-02 15:54:51 @LeftyMcentire For example. The partisan lines around this were genuinely different back then. Makes sense ideologically, if you think about individual vs collective responsibility emphasis. https://t.co/9ZaaewZ5Wu 2021-04-02 15:33:27 @PippaN15 Well, lol, yes. But should not for purposes of the pandemic! 2021-04-02 15:32:55 @THAToneil It’s the same as on the way in, but the other way around. We all needed to wear masks because of presymptomatic transmission and not enough testing. On the way out, same logic, but the reverse. The silly part has been the muddying of what vaccination means for the vaccinated. 2021-04-02 15:21:55 Most of the day-to-day hand-wringing and faux controversies over vaccines will soon get washed away (not denying a few real issues). But a lot of it is just... Sturm und Drang. Meh. But *vaccination* —globally— and equity and the next phase. Not at all easy or straightforward. 2021-04-02 15:16:01 So good but two things: wearing masks in public while many are unvaccinated is a good idea—airlines and grocery stores cannot have two classes of people. Also, the risk is that the safety of the vaccinated lulls us into ingoring the risk that remains *high* for the unvaccinated. https://t.co/ar9BJrDQcv 2021-04-02 02:46:01 RT @megtirrell: Moderna can fill #covid19 vaccine vials with up to 15 doses, FDA says, easing a bottleneck on fill-finish capacity that sho… 2021-04-02 01:47:39 @arielbogle Yeah. I can imagine a lot of that. Would love to see more studies/reporting, eventually. 2021-04-02 01:23:46 RT @insight: New post on how polarization ate our brains. Part one of a series on what's fueling "our" misinformation trifecta: polarizatio… 2021-04-02 01:19:51 @Clayman98 Thank you! 2021-04-02 00:29:10 @ArisKatzourakis @Mahan_Ghafari 2021-04-01 23:52:53 @emilybell I think it's the most common pitfall among academics (who naturally study with what data they have and thus miss ecological shifts) and the most common rhetorical evasion technique from the companies (Along with it's not just us, which is true, but so what? You worry about you.) 2021-04-01 23:43:34 RT @megtirrell: REUTERS: FAUCI HAS 'GENERAL FEELING' THE UNITED STATES WILL NOT NEED ASTRAZENECA COVID-19 VACCINE, EVEN IF AUTHORIZED (Awa… 2021-04-01 22:47:49 @arielbogle Say more? I'm seeing this, too. 2021-04-01 22:28:04 @cwarzel I did not ask the CDC so I don't know the official line, but I'm pretty sure I'm reading most, if not all, the studies on this and this was my immediate interpretation: it's a wee bit overstated, but pretty close approximation for practical purposes. https://t.co/gRiE1s2k66 2021-04-01 22:05:59 @adamgurri @kerry62189 I'll eventually write longer, eventually, but human challenge trials were the flashiest wrong thing the people who were otherwise forward-leaning got wrong imo. It wouldn't give us what we needed, science or trust wise. 2021-04-01 22:02:50 @BalkansBohemia @beyerstein @froomkin Meh, after a whole year, if that's the message, the authorities and media should just say that. Highlighting the least risky, in fact extremely safe, portion of a chain of activities has to be the weirdest way to communicate something we would not accept for anything else. 2021-04-01 21:54:09 @beyerstein @froomkin So, a year into a pandemic, local governments are doing something that is a clear threat to public health, despite knowing this, merely because they are short on staff and the thing in question is keeping a park open as normal? I'd like to see an example or two. 2021-04-01 21:50:44 @beyerstein @froomkin I honestly don't think those are very plausible answers at this point. 2021-04-01 21:40:14 Updating this thread started on December 18, 2020 with me and @michaelmina_lab proposing an immediate *trial* for delaying the booster and monitoring the results. We both caught much grief then but if we had started a trial then, we'd know for sure by now. https://t.co/oLPVEM9KX1 2021-04-01 21:35:34 @adamgurri I agree that we shouldn't modulate telling the full-spectrum truth with the assumption we can predict behavior, but yeah, I absolutely disagree there is no way to tell what might damage trust. Rush a vaccine trial, get a wave of deaths after approval, and I guarantee the results. 2021-04-01 17:13:46 @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter Finally, the trial we suggested wasn't without some tiers: the elderly show the most need for boosters in earlier phase trials, and a trial delay more among younger cohorts (while carefully watching for negative signals) would have been one potential path. 2021-04-01 17:11:32 @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter Meanwhile, of course all the doses that went to boosters being allocated to first doses would, ceteris paribus even with distribution bottlenecks, would have increased the number of first doses in corresponding fashion. 2021-04-01 17:10:45 @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter From what I can tell, there isn't a lot of doses waiting on shelves because of a distribution bottleneck (and hasn't been the case since January) and those differences are mostly the time between dose gets sent to gets administered and reported back.* 2021-04-01 16:45:53 @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter Supply looks higher but there's reporting time lag (and early on there was a bit of logistics bottleneck but that was resolved pretty quickly—personal experience plus watching numbers) and in lots of places, the main bottleneck has been, and is, not enough first doses allocated. 2021-04-01 16:42:46 @PrasadKasibhat1 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter It has been for months... For weeks, my own clinic stopped giving out any first doses on and off (there were none allocated) while continuing to direct almost all available doses to booster. It still is in lots of places. Numbers are super clear (and will be analyzed eventually). 2021-04-01 16:38:05 @j_g_allen @WhelanHealth @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter Right, though my own reasoning was (and Mina can chime in) we'd get hit by seasonality and see a spike even without the variant issues, and thus decided to stick my neck out and call for a trial. (B.1.1.7 was already suspect by then, by the way). After Dec 20, even more urgent. 2021-04-01 16:02:16 @SteveBellovin Yes please! 2021-04-01 15:52:12 @SteveBellovin eeek 2021-04-01 15:51:34 @JaniceBrauner @DKThomp My conclusion is a quasi-compliment. He sometimes caught real stuff (and used to do more early on) but, over time, very consistently veered towards "no way you are misunderstanding this" territory in his misrepresentations. 2021-04-01 15:31:47 I DO agree with this. We should have closed much faster, when necessary (early action=much more bang for buck) *and* opened faster while monitoring for upticks (which being able to close faster would facilitate: if decisions aren't seen as permanent, we can be more flexible). https://t.co/isGvFPoAem 2021-04-01 15:29:56 @evaliceb Eek yeah. Incredible, a whole year in. 2021-04-01 15:29:04 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter Yes. Not altering the schedule even a bit was widely presented as "we are sticking to science" and UK was ridiculed for delaying doses (even though it was their scientific committee of pretty high-level experts who recommended it) etc. 2021-04-01 15:18:10 @WhelanHealth @j_g_allen @VirusesImmunity @michaelmina_lab @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter After calling it anti-science for months, yes, that idea was poisoned. But slight delays in booster schedules are not uncommon, and doing it *with* an early trial (which is what we proposed) would have let us monitor & 2021-04-01 15:15:58 Guess I'll be updating this thread for the next decade. LA opening restaurants etc., so let's put a picture of a vast beach that looks just about the safest place. Worse, this is LA, can't even make up some story about travel to the beach causing the risk. https://t.co/lwtD3BIoR5 2021-04-01 15:11:04 More excellent, excellent news from vaccine trial follow-ups. (This one is for Pfizer). I'll repeat: I think we should spend much less time speculatively worrying about potential future variants, focus more on vaccinating folks now. https://t.co/8Pm5XmtIGX 2021-04-01 01:41:31 @shannimcg @chris_bail @informor @justinhendrix @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel @SolomonMg @kinggary @persily @MattPerault @kreissdaniel @dfreelon @PlatGov Oh, look just in time. How do we submit thread again as proposal? Can't find it in the menu rn. https://t.co/CdGGeNtPBa 2021-04-01 01:36:21 @luisassardo @chris_bail @AlexCEngler @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel @davidlazer That ship has sailed the moment you sign on to Facebook, YouTube, Twitter. The only difference here is that unlike academic researchers, the company researcher are not bound by oversight and have public interest as their goal. Privacy is an issue, hence clean room. 2021-04-01 01:30:30 @informor @chris_bail @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel @SolomonMg @kinggary @persily Indeed. This is the question that's been hanging over so much for so long. 2021-04-01 01:29:50 @chris_bail @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel @SolomonMg @kinggary @persily We need a submittoNSF function, lol. 2021-04-01 01:14:29 @chris_bail @luisassardo @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel The rooms can be in multiple places, physically. Just nobody walking off with the data. 2021-04-01 01:12:51 @chris_bail @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel @SolomonMg @kinggary @persily Yeah. I got pandemic-interrupted but this maybe something we can take up at some near future? Honestly, the companies need help, too. Their risk is bad publicity, but I think that doesn't really harm them that much (and they get it anyway) and clarity would help us all. 2021-04-01 01:03:50 @maxerickson Yay! I hope many people take advantage of these opportunities. And congratulations again. 2021-04-01 01:03:16 @CaseyNewton @WillOremus @chris_bail @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin @kevinroose @justinhendrix @ranimolla @nitashatiku @cwarzel We need independent researcher access, but clearly not the Cambridge Analytica model (bad all around). I've suggested a clean room on site: full access but only printers to get charts/stats out to publish with. Data doesn't leave the company but the independent analysis does. 2021-04-01 00:56:20 NYC council member asking for a vaccine surge. See thread. https://t.co/IgoWVRBdpd 2021-04-01 00:45:37 RT @isocrime: before the ever given's suez adventure, my favorite story about the absurdity of massive container ships is that time in 1992… 2021-04-01 00:43:10 @chris_bail @JessicaFeezell @andyguess @j_a_tucker @BrendanNyhan @themarkup @LeonYin Yeah. I agree it's expensive but we're muddling through one of the most important questions facing us without the kind of data that we mostly know how to get. They keep holding these hearings with tech CEOs instead of funding the research and I keep screaming into the void.... 2021-04-01 00:41:28 @NAChristakis @aminkarbasi @docmilanfar @vedatmilor But no worries, we will soon have an enemy to unite against, as @LibyaLiberty will likely drop in this thread, babbling about almonds and baklavas. We can resist collectively. 2021-04-01 00:38:19 @DrBabinski Aaaw. Thank *you*! 2021-04-01 00:34:25 @NAChristakis @aminkarbasi @docmilanfar @vedatmilor Okay, fine, be that way. I can also be bribed with Antep pistachios. 2021-04-01 00:30:01 @NAChristakis @aminkarbasi @docmilanfar @vedatmilor Wait, I can be bribed with Persian pistachios. 2021-03-31 16:41:40 @natem42 Agree. She's definitely in a position to provide us more concrete benchmarks/timelines. I think it would really help with the final stretch. 2021-03-31 15:34:26 I agree. I think we should have concrete and empirical benchmark-driven timelines. I write "a little bit more" because I'm not in charge (but I can see where things are going) but we should have the endgame spelled out for the public. https://t.co/1OuOUN2IB4 2021-03-31 15:31:54 @erikleejohnson @peterpham Yes, exactly. In fact, that's exactly the danger: we are used to catastrophic numbers so we will not take the steps to protect the smaller numbers of still vulnerable people who will suffer, when we are *so close* to protecting almost everyone! 2021-03-31 15:30:48 @RohanV Thank you. 2021-03-31 14:54:21 Another important consideration. One thing that can accompany a targeted vaccine surge is temporary OSHA guidelines protecting the yet unvaccinated (there are many!) essential workers. Surge+time limit+so much good news+money subsidy could make this work. https://t.co/cb450UGqSY 2021-03-31 14:27:56 Reminder there is a lot of good news! My article above talks about this study she's referencing. (I haven't seen the full clip, but this excerpt is a wee bit overstated. Data showed 90% reduction in *any* infection—thus transmission—which is excellent). https://t.co/s3qDsHnLbL 2021-03-31 13:32:51 RT @syramadad: The Fourth Surge Is Upon Us. This Time, It’s Different. “A deadlier and more transmissible variant has taken root, but now… 2021-03-31 04:34:14 RT @AlexJamesFitz: "The vaccinated can clearly do more, and safely, especially two weeks after their final dose. But it’s a particularly pe… 2021-03-31 04:28:30 @RachelRkflet @syramadad Thank you! 2021-03-31 04:14:30 RT @sharonyamsy: This article tackles the argument that to stop anti-Asian violence in the US, the US should stop criticizing the Chinese r… 2021-03-31 03:10:48 Yes. The current risk is that the efficacy of the vaccines—which is great news!—will overshadow the very real vulnerability of those who are left behind, and are now facing yet another surge exactly as we open things up. https://t.co/AfRBS3TJ9q 2021-03-31 03:07:51 @jeremychrysler @michaelmina_lab Just imagine if that attack rate/mortality distribution had applied to this one. ::shudder:: 2021-03-31 02:47:05 @michaelmina_lab That was you? I had read that back when and found it very interesting. Small world. 2021-03-31 02:34:16 @ColinCannell @SarahTaber_bww Heh. Yeah. I did win my court case, though. I’d totally be evicted otherwise. And the local fair housing office told me that if the landlord tried anything else, they’d join and countersue so that might have helped. 2021-03-31 02:31:07 @washerdreyer Trials! It seems about the right time, too, from what we know about how boosters work. 2021-03-31 02:29:58 @tcrawf_nh @morningmoneyben There is obviously seasonality, but that makes things less worse or more worse compared to the counterfactual—doesn’t eliminate, especially because this is a novel virus so a large immunologically naive population. 2021-03-31 02:28:44 @AlexJamesFitz Highish levels of vaccination: fewer infections, especially among the elderly. More transmissible: will catch more people if things are kept the same—let alone open up—at younger ages, too, compared to the wildtype, and more of those people will experience severe outcomes. 2021-03-31 02:27:15 @AlexJamesFitz It appears to be deadlier, as well as being more transmissible. The latter is a lot more firmly established than the former, but I think the preponderance of the evidence definitely leans towards deadlier, too. (It’s hard to be 100% certain with confounding). 2021-03-31 02:25:20 RT @j_g_allen: Very good piece by @zeynep making the case for “ring vaccination” in areas experiencing surges. + many other smart observati… 2021-03-31 02:22:40 @wsbgnl @gregggonsalves One possibility is that the genuine short-term nature of what’s needed can help make things happen in some places. Unfortunately, though, there has been a lot of trust lost in the “it’s just for a while” kind of messaging that wasn’t well-calibrated to reality, to say the least. 2021-03-31 01:55:31 @_cingraham Here it is. https://t.co/ZoPSir2poM 2021-03-31 01:21:56 RT @Alex_Panetta: The bad news: the US is entering Wave 4. The good news: the US is way closer to herd immunity because of abundant vacci… 2021-03-30 23:24:41 Yes, please. https://t.co/mpK6mlOD5t 2021-03-30 23:10:11 @peterpham I do the math! I count the already infected, if anything, fairly generously (not just confirmed, but estimated). We clearly have many millions, including among the elderly, who remain vulnerable but most of whom will get access fairly soon. 2021-03-30 23:03:20 @seth_parker Thank you. I think the evidence is quite strong for B.1.1.7. The others a little more murky still on the transmissibility and severity, suggestive stuff but very difficult to untangle, but both seem to have some degree of immune escape. 2021-03-30 23:01:17 @evanengel Grocery stores can’t police people’s vaccine status. Plus, the eligibility is rapidly expanding but still not there. That said, for private behavior? Sure. Already there, mostly. 2021-03-30 23:00:16 @evanengel I think we need to distinguish public and private behavior for a little bit more. It’s the reverse of the early days when the advice was for only the sick to wear a mask. Not tenable, too much stigma. Now reverse problem. 2021-03-30 22:42:50 @j_g_allen Thank you! 2021-03-30 22:10:24 RT @grace_panetta: Also important: "So it’s perfectly possible for a country as a whole to have herd immunity against a pathogen, but for o… 2021-03-30 21:51:02 @statesdj @ScottGottliebMD Agree, and I do say that in the piece. That said, the Federal government has the least control over the opening up/rules part. But a surge can be very quick, and the protection is measurable within just two weeks, which means even earlier (partial) protection starts for exposure. https://t.co/ZfPZf8NM1r 2021-03-30 21:29:51 @_opservator_ @Valentine721 @jeffreyatucker Read the piece! We should of course count them. 2021-03-30 21:28:16 @bricey16 Some restrictions deserve loosening, others not so much. I don't like the binary optimist/pessimist framing. There is a lot of good news but there is neither a need to scold warranted caution that's correctly targeted, nor to panic over... say people in parks or outdoors. 2021-03-30 21:26:22 I understand why we did an each-state-does-their-own-thing policy until now. But the administration should immediately implement a national strategy of geographic prioritizing. We already have federal sites in many states, and we have the vaccine supply. https://t.co/KFJBNmHdQN https://t.co/uYLiDAPoWd 2021-03-30 21:19:46 aka didn't read the piece. https://t.co/2Hc90JnDLw 2021-03-30 21:18:47 @bricey16 you didn't read the piece, right? 2021-03-30 21:17:49 @alphabetsoupy There is something called infection which also confers immunity. 2021-03-30 21:16:18 Honestly, in the US, we do have everything we need to meet likely our last big pandemic challenge. Every other piece of news we have is good, including the latest from the CDC on transmission (in the piece). But we do need to act now, and also globally where things are worse. 2021-03-30 16:36:06 @emilybell *opens doc* "Dangers of copycat incidents due to media coverage have traditionally been underestimated, a trend that's been exacerbated by the engagement-driven shift in the increasingly digital public sphere. In this 7,000 word thinkpiece I will" 2021-03-30 14:56:09 @tressiemcphd Aaaw. *sniff* 2021-03-30 03:24:06 @wanderer_jasnah 2021-03-30 03:15:25 @wanderer_jasnah Yeah February/March was like that for me, too. 2021-03-30 03:06:24 @BillHanage @GidMK @edgardo_block Like that! 2021-03-30 01:51:50 RT @BillHanage: This thread is worth reading. Both for the unfortunate paper that prompted it, and the grace in response 2021-03-29 18:17:16 @_cingraham Writing about it right now. 2021-03-29 18:16:57 (One event is already postponing and I've asked the other to do so as well, in light of the strike). Graduate students—especially in an expensive city—are in a difficult situation: students and employees at the same time. So indeed: best wishes for a speedy and fair resolution. 2021-03-29 18:00:22 I was scheduled to keynote one event—launch of their Medical Humanities major—and be a panelist for another at Columbia University. I will *not* cross this picket line. Best of luck to the graduate students, and I hope there's a speedy and fair resolution. #CUonStrike https://t.co/L1lQatnk12 2021-03-29 04:05:20 Spare a thought, though. https://t.co/6irQhpNpQJ 2021-03-29 04:03:53 Seems #Evergiven is floating again! Whew. https://t.co/abPVQvdSn9 2021-03-29 02:54:38 RT @WilliamYang120: More than 400 academics have issued a joint statement to support @j_smithfinley in light of #Beijing's sanctions agains… 2021-03-29 01:59:15 @KoenSwinkels @JustTheFacts37 VAERS an open database. We accept everything so we can check against baseline rates. Sadly some people die everyday. No evidence of vaccine causing or even a spike. 2021-03-29 01:57:27 @BabiesFree Yeay! 2021-03-29 01:21:01 Ten million doses in just three days. https://t.co/jJyDrj4b7G 2021-03-28 23:04:06 RT @linseymarr: I'm not worried about people hanging out at beaches and parks. I am worried that I saw very full parking lots at restaurant… 2021-03-28 22:34:50 @marc_cart Thank you! 2021-03-28 22:30:21 @jbakcoleman @alexstamos Oh wow. 2021-03-28 22:04:21 @alexgibneyfilm Thank you and... yeah. 2021-03-28 20:53:23 @dgurdasani1 @CT_Bergstrom I don't see every version of everything, and to the degree what you say is happening (I'm not doubting it at all 2021-03-28 20:52:02 @dgurdasani1 @CT_Bergstrom I obviously do not condone racist abuse directed at anyone. I do still think that he has been careless and alarmist, prone to too many errors that could be solved by reading the paper rather than cherry-picking from badly-written articles and very resistant to feedback on this. 2021-03-28 19:37:35 @DocDre Happy birthday! 2021-03-28 18:51:21 RT @OurOcean: Have you met the cutest octopus in the WORLD yet?! https://t.co/wTDhjtLi2q 2021-03-28 18:50:26 @Dr24hours My pre-pandemic work is necessarily multidisciplinary (by nature) and I crossed a lot of disciplinary boundaries during the pandemic (out of frustration and a sense I could contribute) so I'm sensitive to the "how to do it right/avoid pitfalls" question. 2021-03-28 18:40:21 @Dr24hours @CT_Bergstrom The broader point I'm making is that this is actually a fairly common practice without perhaps self-awareness on how it looks, and this may be an opportunity to see how it does look from the outside—but nobody likes hearing that so I say my two cents and kinda leave it there. 2021-03-28 18:39:24 @Dr24hours @CT_Bergstrom "He's just a student" is the sign of a weak argument and attempt to gatekeep in the worst possible way, and it's terrible especially coming from someone who's obviously, well, wrong. No disagreement. 2021-03-28 18:37:22 @Dr24hours @CT_Bergstrom Of course. My point (gingerly lest it be misunderstood as personal) is that "epitwitter" does a large amount of this (not directed at Carl) without noticing that, to the outsider, it looks very similar AND there are experts with right credentials and really wrong assertions, too. 2021-03-28 17:29:31 @j_g_allen Yeah imagine that. 2021-03-28 16:46:18 @misguidedsoul7 @CT_Bergstrom Find something I wrote, pitch a paragraph debunking it substantively (not in a debate club way). I do pay, and real rates probably higher than almost all freelancing. Stronger the argument, the happier I am to pay. 2021-03-28 16:42:50 @misguidedsoul7 @CT_Bergstrom Sure. General, not directed at Carl personally. There is a lot of it on social media, not just about that person (and really isn't my personal concern 2021-03-28 16:33:45 @aaronhuertas I put that last bit in because it might seem defensive for me to make this point (as an outsider) but I'm not feeling particularly defensive—I'm super proud of the totality of my record last year plus I'm tenuredplus I do learn from & 2021-03-28 16:31:33 @aaronhuertas Thank you. It's complicated. Need to balance respecting real expertise with winning the argument by winning the argument and not by just saying "listen to the experts"—especially since there are highly-credentialed experts making very contradictory assertions on crucial topics. 2021-03-28 16:23:03 @CT_Bergstrom (Disclosure: yeah, I'm also an outsider writing on all this but I really don't mind dunking (I'm tenured!) and I ABSOLUTELY welcome debunking: I pay people to debunk me on my own newsletter. This is genuinely a friendly point on how things look from the outside, not about me). 2021-03-28 16:21:33 @CT_Bergstrom I'm pointing out not because I think he is being treated unfairly or that he's more right etc. but because that pattern looks fairly similar to this incident from the outside, and ends up not debunking his points or convincing people (if anything, probably garners sympathy), 2021-03-28 16:19:41 @CT_Bergstrom 100% agree this is no way to conduct a scientific discussion. I hope this logic is extended. For example, people keep dunking on EFD because he has a "nutritional epi" PhD. I do think he's wrong (quite often) but because he is wrong, not that he lacks just the right credentials.+ 2021-03-28 15:25:27 @craignewmark Settled on Sundays for these! 2021-03-28 03:04:51 After a full, difficult year, people find possibly the safest possible way to socialize: outdoors in a big park. Reporter: wait, I can see it. https://t.co/lJVMZj3ueg 2021-03-27 22:55:05 @DiseaseEcology @StephenKissler @yhgrad Yes, I know the paper! I find B.1.1.7 to be quite a threat. Appears more resistant to NPIs, likely more lethal too, wreaks havoc (at least for a while) even in partially-vaccinated populations. Meanwhile, does B.1.135 immune escape cause any uptick for severe disease? Not clear. 2021-03-27 22:34:29 @DiseaseEcology So, speculatively, that combo could account for re-infection (spiking again in the highly-connected population) and the antibody drop findings of b.1.135 and the South Africa surge/fall trajectory. Meanwhile, note the persistent havoc B.1.1.7 (no immune evasion) seems to wreak. 2021-03-27 22:27:40 @DiseaseEcology Different infectious window: length and/or timing? Earlier/later infectiousness in disease course (later easier to notice/control with NPIs) or narrower/wider duration (latter harder with NPIs). South Africa vs UK/Israel/Europe trajectory is interesting. B.1.1.7 seems terrible. 2021-03-27 20:59:33 @D1sambiguation @ddiamond I have specifically specified big political questions, not just "what's the next week's supply" or even "how is the separate long-term care facility vaccination" is going. What we do about global supply/IP or extra doses etc. are not mere doctor/scientist issues. 2021-03-27 20:04:05 @DiseaseEcology Based on comparing real-world trajectories, one (speculative, yes) question may be whether B.1.1.7 is less susceptible to NPIs than B.1.3.5. So it's probably possible for various factors to differentially affect variant trajectories (and also makes B.1.1.7 such a challenge). 2021-03-27 18:12:05 @WesPegden I don’t see them getting precise enough data (beyond what we already know from natural experiments) from “close contacts” of college students since it’s a particularly high-mixing group. Plus young only. Do what with the info? Really not seeing it. 2021-03-27 17:43:31 @WesPegden What are we learning extra with this design? 2021-03-27 17:12:19 RT @zchagla: Guys, the outdoors is safe - but outdoors means good airflow and open space. These are showing up more and more - this is not… 2021-03-27 16:21:39 RT @glcarlstrom: This is funny. The White House press corps whined for weeks that Biden must hold a news conference so they could hold him… 2021-03-27 14:43:44 @enturbulator I recommended *a trial*, and explicitly using natural scarcities (which existed back in December) and the potential upside was increased confidence (because we’d have trial data rather than speculation) and being able to vaccinate billions quickly. I still wish we had done it! 2021-03-27 14:26:09 @fascinatorfun Yes! There are many such studies already, and NIH can maybe launch this study somewhere else among people who are not holding back getting vaccinated on purpose and where close contacts can measure things better (not college students). 2021-03-27 14:15:58 College students are low-risk but they are not zero risk, and Long Covid is a (not that well-understood) thing of some prevalance (maybe less than reported but it is a thing. It is real). Dunno. We have existing answers, this won’t give us more precision imo, and it is a risk. 2021-03-27 14:13:13 Also, we already have a a lot of data on vaccines blunting transmission, and I am not even convinced this study (testing close-contacts of college students when a lot of spread happens in mass events like parties etc.) will give us anything more precise than what we already know. 2021-03-27 14:12:03 @lizgarbus We already have a lot and a lot of data on that. I’m not even sure this study will give us anything more precise to be honest. 2021-03-27 14:10:16 I’m definitely ok with using natural, unavoidable scarcities (like launching this in December when as college students were not going to be eligible soon) or discussing launching it someplace with no access to vaccines (though I am for vaccinating globally ASAP). But now? Here? 2021-03-27 14:07:24 I looked at the enrollment page, and it has not a word about the effects of delaying the vaccine. (It addresses “will the vaccine change my DNA” and “will it effect fertility”, but not... what if I do catch COVID during those four months, which is the point of the study). 2021-03-27 14:05:08 An NIH-led study plans to assess transmission after vaccination by asking college students to delay vaccination for four months. To me, this seems neither necessary nor ethically justifiable, and the study design probably can’t even answer their question. https://t.co/mC65mEGeTo 2021-03-27 02:08:53 @sarvay Yeah, me too. 2021-03-27 00:06:58 @AbraarKaran Thank you! 2021-03-26 20:42:49 RT @rahulbot: That first Biden press conference seems to have been a spectacular failure of the entire White House press corps... in so man… 2021-03-26 17:45:39 Note that these are NOT softball questions. Nor are they minor topics better addressed by others. These are thorny topics and tough challenges. The ask isn't for the press to go easy on Biden. The opposite. Ask tough questions! Just relevant ones, please. https://t.co/3eQY4nJHke 2021-03-26 17:21:12 RT @CephWarden: An Octopus cyanea decloaking and recloaking https://t.co/7i3hjGjvdq 2021-03-26 01:10:23 RT @JoshConstine: Surprise! Slack CEO @stewart is our special guest. Several people are talking...about reopening offices or staying remot… 2021-03-26 01:02:18 True enough. Also unlike UK, that sparkling landmass. (Still, the principle holds: early, aggressive action that targets the right things.) https://t.co/qMdE5VjlUr 2021-03-26 01:00:42 True, but look at the precaution they are immediately taking to make sure it doesn't get out of hand. Exponentials: with a threat like this, early aggressive action is almost always cheaper/easier than anything you (end up having to) do later. https://t.co/HTU3pK84Eg 2021-03-26 00:47:19 There are places that have press conferences to announce a single case... https://t.co/TwwPG11nZa 2021-03-25 23:15:52 RT @sarahzhang: In the 1990s, bald eagles started dying at a lake on Arkansas. Before they died, they went blind. They flew into cliffs. Th… 2021-03-25 22:34:46 @juliasonnevend Of course! 2021-03-25 21:55:48 @kreissdaniel @unc_citap @columbiajourn 2021-03-25 21:21:32 @JoshStein_ @unc_citap Thank you for the kind words, and yes I’ve been very happy to call NC home! 2021-03-25 21:09:33 A note from my amazing colleagues at @unc_citap. I say this often, but probably not often enough: I have been so lucky. I really do work with the best people. https://t.co/TJsMl08hvv 2021-03-25 19:41:36 @epopppp In my previous (tech) life, I've worked on (old) source code that had comments like "Make sure to fix this! Disastrous error!" or "Remind John this will cause problems" with no idea what it was about, and nobody still working there having a clue who John or any named person was. 2021-03-25 18:44:12 Seriously? What on earth? There are... still pretty important things to ask about. https://t.co/SXSlQ7TfnM 2021-03-25 18:15:08 @BrendanNyhan Yeah this is why it's sometimes awkward to chat with colleagues about their parents/childhood. (Very different background from me and sometimes I feel like I'm from an alien planet). 2021-03-25 15:57:04 @tamcfall More like I used your tweet to explain it to non-academics. :-D It's so weird, how we do things. 2021-03-25 15:23:32 @TaniaMJenkins @UNC https://t.co/alv4FP7viN 2021-03-25 15:20:49 @noelTbrewer @UNC Thank you! Though I remain an associate professor at UNC. For next year, this is a visiting position. I'm lucky to have these opportunities, but I had no complaints being at UNC. Awesome place and amazing colleagues. 2021-03-25 15:08:35 My early academic career was a bit rocky (what I wanted to do didn't fit the existing boxes) but I've been incredibly lucky since. I have amazing colleagues at UNC, now an amazing opportunity at Columbia. I count my blessing every day. Thank you, everyone, for your well-wishes. 2021-03-25 15:01:48 @MarkSV @UNC It's a visiting year for now... I remain associate professor at UNC. :-D 2021-03-25 14:58:09 @SamurSciCop Nooo 2021-03-25 14:56:25 I've never been less intellectually bored but physically confined to one place as last year. I'm really looking forward to being in NYC, working with colleagues at @columbiajourn and across the university and helping launch the new center generously-endowed by @craignewmark. 2021-03-25 14:49:48 *delete assistant. My brain went back about five years ago. I'm no longer an assistant professor lol. Sorry, I know I should pay more attention to these things. Brain glazes over. 2021-03-25 14:43:53 I remain an associate professor at UNC, and will continue to work especially with my doctoral students. (So used to remote work). Weird but that’s how the academic world works. We don’t just move all at once. We "visit" and then make longer-term plans. https://t.co/FlPeL0UxiN 2021-03-25 14:34:50 @tamcfall I remain an associate professor at UNC, and will continue to work with my colleagues there and my doctoral students. That’s kind of how the academic world works. We don’t just move all at once. 2021-03-25 14:31:29 I’ll be a visiting assistant professor for the next academic year. I look forward to collaborating with many colleagues at Columbia University, across disciplines—computer science, sociology, public policy and more—as well as interacting with so many friends in NYC. 2021-03-25 14:21:55 I’m thrilled to announce that I’ll be joining Columbia University to help launch the Craig Newmark Center for Journalism Ethics and Security. This was a pre-pandemic plan we had decided to postpone for a year. https://t.co/lmPq907avA 2021-03-25 08:12:33 @ellehardy @erinrileyau Where? 2021-03-25 01:34:28 RT @s_m_i: my position on your book deals / vaccine appointments / vaccinated parents / new jobs / promotions / fire selfies: sprinkle that… 2021-03-24 23:30:19 @HalfaxNew I'm so glad my work was useful to you! 2021-03-24 23:29:25 RT @VincentRK: A lot to be thankful for. This is the most sustained drop in COVID cases and deaths we have had in the US since the start of… 2021-03-24 19:05:38 This is exactly the cost of the failure to explain what airborne transmission means, and providing rigid rules instead. So many examples. (Requiring masks outdoor even for fleeting encounters under six feet, but not requiring them indoors if separated by six feet, for example). https://t.co/D8fGrMnhSt 2021-03-24 18:58:38 @GS_Watson Some people are wrong. 2021-03-24 18:54:30 Yeah it’s been a year. https://t.co/8x1mCbiaHG 2021-03-24 18:50:47 Thread is pointing out that, apparently, NYC is planning to end remote work but won’t require masks indoors if people can be six feet apart. It’s been a year and the key role of aerosols hasn’t sunk in. Among the biggest pandemic failures. https://t.co/oxBQmc1te7 2021-03-24 17:37:17 RT @JoshConstine: Will 3 days a week in the office be the new normal? How do we return safely? Vax required? So curious to ask these exec… 2021-03-24 16:24:57 @danielwinlander Thank you! 2021-03-24 16:16:29 @jayrosen_nyu Not engaging with the economic underpinnings of one's industry as almost a point of pride in intellectual industries (including higher-education) is quite a phenomenon, and also leads to a lot of misunderstanding from the outside on what makes the practitioners tick. 2021-03-24 16:11:35 @MattSchiavenza Wouldn't be shocked with an editorial with some version of this soon! 2021-03-24 16:03:14 @DKThomp Yeah. Legit and interesting questions about what the endemic phase will look like, but come on. 2021-03-24 16:00:47 @MattSchiavenza Mutantninjacoronavirus 2021-03-24 15:58:35 @DKThomp Right, and I wouldn't care as much if this didn't feed the idea spread willingly by the grifters that the mainstream "plan" is to use this pandemic as an excuse for permanent social control with an actually legit example of it. 2021-03-24 15:52:10 @DRO_oDR True, HIV is a terrible retrovirus we have no vaccine against! But even there, we do have effective therapeutics (yes despite all the inequality and lack of access which pertains to other diseases as well). 2021-03-24 15:50:39 Let's shore up our public health infrastructure? Yes. Let's study what went wrong so we can meet the next challenge better? Yes. Let's get through the rest of this with minimum possible suffering? YES. Permanent pandemic from a coronavirus we can vaccinate against? Come on. 2021-03-24 15:39:19 It's been terrible, but it's a coronavirus against which we now have multiple excellent vaccines, folks. There is clearly uncertainty and debate over what it will look like in its later (likely endemic) phase, but it will not be a pandemic like now. 2021-03-24 15:37:27 @joelgombiner No, that's part of the misinformation that's being spread. 2021-03-24 15:36:47 The obvious historic fact is that all pandemics end—they did even before vaccination. This one, too, will end. The question before us is how: if we vaccinate rapidly and globally, it will end with much less suffering. Alternative: acute crisis ends, but with much more suffering. 2021-03-24 15:33:35 A common theme among people who oppose—what I think of as sensible, temporary—pandemic restrictions is that it's not justified by science but just part of a plan to make social controls permanent. Bloomberg: "Lemme help you there". https://t.co/HPw6oNtiiE 2021-03-24 03:27:12 RT @ejames_c: I can’t recommend this enough. @zeynep takes apart the idea of “absence of evidence is evidence of absence”, and explains: we… 2021-03-24 02:34:04 @SteveBellovin *waves* 2021-03-23 01:29:09 @shannimcg @katyetc 2021-03-22 22:57:06 Another shooting tragedy, and I’m sadly going to re-up one of my old threads with my writings on this topic going back a decade: how we cover mass shootings matters. Don’t do it on the killer’s terms. Don’t plaster his name, social media etc. on our screens. Focus on victims. https://t.co/5WOUjvd44R 2021-03-22 20:16:55 @PennyDaflos @vansk24 I’m glad it was useful to you! 2021-03-22 19:43:29 @Pinboard Hey, rituals hold society together. 2021-03-22 19:39:23 @Pinboard Yeah, impossible to tell the difference or figure out if it matters! 2021-03-22 19:12:54 Is it... infrastructure week? Wow. https://t.co/8EdJMFYuYs 2021-03-22 18:27:57 @meadowgroove It's incredible! When I went to the ER after the first one to get a popped stitch looked at, they wouldn't touch it even to rinse it with betadine till they paged down the hand surgeon on call. The second one was a tough decision 2021-03-22 18:22:59 @ashishkjha @notdred *convincible (Sorry, not my best typing week, dealing with a bit of switching things around to relieve mild tendonitis and balance it out with stupid flexor tendon injury on the other hand but who am I kidding I misspell things all the time). 2021-03-22 18:18:55 @THAToneil @ashishkjha @notdred Whatever it takes, for sure, though I am not confident on what would it take to most quickly ramp up supply. (If stepping on IP toes is enough, let's do it yesterday but I'm not well-versed enough in the details of manufacturing and supply chain to make that case either way). 2021-03-22 18:14:37 @matthewherper @ashishkjha @notdred Give the doses back to COVAX is best, I think. It's great we turned some over to Canada/Mexico immediately (they both need it *now* and are facing surges) but the problem with direct transfer is, indeed, optics and values. Let them go to WHO/COVAX and join the global effort. 2021-03-22 18:10:00 @notdred @ashishkjha Yes. That's why I supported waiting for this trial to conclude here. The world needed this. That said, I'm waiting for their paper, to be honest, after the last round of announcement-by-press-release by Oxford/AZ turned into "oh yeah also that dosing thing" etc. But looks good! 2021-03-22 18:08:02 @ashishkjha @notdred But there is also "you want to give inferior vaccines to poor countries" argument that I find, if anything, somewhat colonialist if you excuse my language, and and not much to do there to budge people. "We" shouldn't allow Mexico to decide what they approve? Don't get it. 2021-03-22 18:05:03 @ashishkjha @notdred The other concern was: how come it's good enough for "them" if it is not good enough for us? I tried to explain the difference there, and some of it is more concern about "optics" which can be solved imo. 2021-03-22 18:03:15 @ashishkjha @notdred One concern is "I can't get an appointment yet". (I get it). But I found walking people through the authorization timeline *and* (a crucial *and*) the importance of using the vaccines now (explaining exponential threat) rather than in a month... People seemed a lot more open. 2021-03-22 18:00:13 @ashishkjha @notdred There is a lot of pushback! Even on Twitter! (Ask me how I know, lol and see link below). But I've been (on purpose) actively engaging the pushback as time allows, and I find most people are actually fairly conceivable once you walk through their concerns. https://t.co/2mz0YRCYM0 2021-03-22 03:33:59 This is called a “nocebo” effect, and you see it very clearly in the trial data. Just like the placebo effect, it’s very, very real because—while clinical medicine can remain stubbornly dualist in orientation—the mind is in your body. “It’s in your mind” things are real things! https://t.co/Vv2gXKiUDW 2021-03-22 03:28:15 Okay, this is the longest I’ve seen. https://t.co/VkRY9kJrGq 2021-03-22 03:24:23 Three things were obviously key to target mitigations: this was like SARS in two key ways—airborne and overdispersed—and not like SARS is one important way—presymptomatic transmission. Some countries had all three by March 2020. This is going to be a striking history book. Sigh. 2021-03-22 03:18:38 This sounds about right tbh https://t.co/v9IxoTBLut 2021-03-22 03:12:05 @KadyrToktogulov Ugh 2021-03-22 03:07:46 @KadyrToktogulov Mostly. Also relatively strong masking rules. Exceptions get attention but terminal/boarding probably bigger risk than time in plane). 2021-03-22 03:06:14 (The above is a tragedy. We shouldn’t have had to go through a whole year of a once-in—a-century pandemic like this. The history is well-documented and you can find all the guidelines and news conferences—and how many countries went their own way. Only upside: if we learn). 2021-03-22 03:03:39 As a reminder, until December 2020, WHO guidance said masks were NOT necessary indoors if people were separated by a mere 3 feet/1 meter. Almost every successful country defied WHO guidelines & 2021-03-22 02:47:10 @felixsalmon South Korea had amazing early studies, too. 2021-03-22 02:43:31 RT @CGrantWSJ: When my editor asks me where my story is. 2021-03-22 02:36:05 This is what I’ve heard from all over the US and most if the world, nonstop, for a year now—exceptions are countries that went their own way from very early on, on airborne transmission risks, like Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, etc. https://t.co/BuB4PfoUcX 2021-03-22 02:10:40 @linseymarr Hah! 2021-03-21 23:10:38 @shortorian I think it’s Kuhnian in how it is playing out. Sure, it’s not Newton vs. Einstein. But Kuhnian in multiple aspects. I don’t say this with some exact correspondence to every claim. 2021-03-21 23:01:15 @OldeNaturalist @mikarv In person singing lesson? But no books. 2021-03-21 22:50:18 @webbob @MacaesBruno It's not dismissing. The NZ event probably isn't the most common route either. (It is a superspreader driven epidemic). 2021-03-21 03:12:35 RT @ashishkjha: Absolutely what Nate said None of us expected vaccines this good In an August conversation with Tony Fauci -- we both sai… 2021-03-20 20:09:15 @ArthurKnapp14 @ProssElizabeth @anneapplebaum @TheAtlantic @RadioFreeTom @edyong209 2021-03-20 20:08:36 @emilysmithpearc @UNCGAA Thank you! 2021-03-20 16:51:12 RT @syramadad: Dr @MonicaGandhi9 & As fully vaccinated persons wonder what activitie… 2021-03-20 16:38:36 RT @ahmetasabanci: @EthanZ @timnitGebru Same also happens regularly with Turkish too. This one is an old tweet but my go-to example. 2021-03-20 15:08:42 Once again: exponential threats make early action much more valuable. Need to act immediately to blunt the surge in Michigan, and also to work hard to reverse the inequality among the vaccinated. Even a week makes a huge difference. Meet surge with vaccination surge. 2021-03-20 15:06:19 There needs to be immediate action in Michigan, first to improve this access/vaccination gap among older Black people, but also to quickly target other vulnerable groups. US is vaccinating at a rapid pace—yeay—which means we can shift some supply/effort to places at higher risk. 2021-03-20 14:59:32 I keep seeing pics of outdoor parties in Florida with confident predictions of superspreading/surge. Sure, let’s watch Florida but, here’s an *actual* problem—a real surge in Michigan, now, where older black people remain dramatically undervaccinated. https://t.co/LyFpuUHWAx https://t.co/R5heezaKoC 2021-03-20 14:25:09 RT @malpassimo: Legga il thread chi non ha tempo. Legga l'articolo chi ha dieci minuti (https://t.co/nXtmq3wAAa) Grazie @albolivieri per la… 2021-03-19 21:55:36 @Hao_and_Y Ahahaha but that’s too high a standard for me. 2021-03-19 21:51:14 RT @acsifferlin: The CDC shared guidelines for what people can do when vaccinated, but it's tough to account for the intricacies of individ… 2021-03-19 21:09:58 @jbkrell Of course on how it “worked”. The whole point is not to repeat that delay, clearly. On the former, again, the discussion is what is the level of evidence that would move this imagined purely selfish person, and what are their selfish options? We may disagree what that looks like. 2021-03-19 20:10:34 @jbkrell I do think it’s a *possible* world. We see it for other diseases. “Boosters won’t work or be fast enough” for variants is a guess, and I think good reasons to think that’s not the only viable guess. 2021-03-19 20:05:21 @jbkrell That’s why my concern isn’t very separable from the messaging concern. It doesn’t lead to a single positive course of action that we imagine it to be. But I’m increasingly convinced that it works very well and policymakers, so be it! 2021-03-19 20:03:44 @jbkrell I think that’s why the longform is better. Nobody’s disagreeing as, far as I can tell, that’s stopping proliferation is good, including for any potential future mutation through either mechanism. But the target may decide, for example, herd immunity through infection “works” too+ 2021-03-19 19:59:13 @jbkrell On HIV history: I do know there were arguments like that by drug companies, and I may well be misremembering public-facing ones as I wasn’t around or here for most of it. But I do know what worked was a mix of activism plus “legacy”—not a rational calculation by selfish masses. 2021-03-19 19:56:46 @jbkrell I think I wrote enough long-form on this to explain my concern, especially with how the intended target (purely selfish, rational, informed person) could reasonably draw other conclusions. But this may move policy people regardless, so if that works, guess that works. 2021-03-19 19:51:27 @noUpside @antoniogm I guess just read some texts about the hygiene hypothesis? I don’t mean to evaluate the science but just as therapy for yourself. 2021-03-19 19:49:00 @PaulSaxMD 2021-03-19 19:16:28 @antoniogm This is what I was sent from someone to lemme know they had reached that milestone. (Just relaying, not endorsing). https://t.co/eD1nZdfOQJ 2021-03-19 18:42:55 @gkossakowski @sacca Thank you! Yeah I’m total over the speed with which we got vaccines and, specifically, the potential for synthetic mRNA to provide therapies and vaccines that have been beyond our grasp. The article is very much that! 2021-03-19 15:15:16 Two more articles, @ryanlcooper in The Week and @dandrezner in Washington Post. Both argue that it helps US "soft-power" to help vaccinate the rest of the world. If that moves the gears, let that move the gears, too. https://t.co/NRRCLq5Kbl and https://t.co/uA1ao2ToH2. https://t.co/RrdaXhAOz4 2021-03-19 14:56:31 @shawnpowers @dandrezner 2021-03-19 14:56:03 @evil_diad I think the soft-power argument definitely makes more sense of the policymakers! It's just so striking to me that they lean so heavily on the "it's for our own good" side of the argument on what I consider to be the much more tenuous basis. 2021-03-18 03:47:53 RT @JFrusci: Aside from the efficacy of his campaign to vaccinate America, President Biden’s legacy will also surely be about "how his admi… 2021-03-18 02:08:43 RT @EricTopol: “Let our doses go” The US is hoarding large numbers of vaccine doses it will never, cannot use. @zeynep is on it. Think pl… 2021-03-17 23:18:49 RT @crschmidt: There are tens of millions of doses of a vaccine that has been approved elsewhere (but not yet in the US) sitting in warehou… 2021-03-17 21:44:01 RT @brhodes: The US can both vaccinate our people and be the leading source of vaccine support to the developing world. From a humanitarian… 2021-03-17 21:05:50 @William39140777 @MollyJongFast They are not approved for use in the United States, so what will you do with them in Connecticut? 2021-03-17 21:05:17 Not so burdensome, but it'd be awesome if the "how dare you propose to dump an inferior vaccine elsewhere" people could directly duke it out with the "yes we have enough and those aren't approved but what if we ever need those great vaccines here?" folk.https://t.co/EPRCeksQbX 2021-03-17 20:25:17 Another option. Just give it to Covax—the global initiative to vaccinate the world—and let them handle the rest. We don't have to figure out all the optics 2021-03-17 20:14:49 @NavinPokala @ngaio1819 I'm sure they can figure out the politics of it! Covax sounds great to me. 2021-03-17 20:13:02 @natashaloder @EricTopol @atulbutte The ChAdOx1 booster interval in the US trial is four weeks (not 21 days). But I agree, I don't see conditions under which it is approved fast enough in the US and fulfills some unmet demand (of any kind?). Let it go to work where it's needed. 2021-03-17 19:59:27 @EricTopol @atulbutte Yeah. Also, the importance of proper trials couldn’t be demonstrated better I guess. 2021-03-17 19:10:57 @ugurgoktolga You should pick it up with the The European Medicines Agency, which itself seems puzzled by what's going on, and lend them your extraordinary clarity. 2021-03-17 18:42:40 Yes, there are multiple ways to ship those doses gathering dust out now, even with some guarantees for replacement (we won't need! we really will not need!) for if and when they are finally approved here and there is some (I can't imagine how) urgent need. https://t.co/VeRMG2Dafv 2021-03-17 18:28:23 I get this, and there is certainly a problem with whatever European countries think they are doing (I can't make sense of it) and the way AstraZeneca was rolled out was suboptimal. But that's a different problem—not a reason to let vaccines go to waste. https://t.co/WmmrgCh6En 2021-03-17 18:04:19 @tanjamaier17 Aaw, I'm so sorry. I hope all of you can get together soon! It's really been terrible, especially if one is away from love ones at higher risk. 2021-03-17 17:58:38 @tanjamaier17 I'm sorry. I hope she gets vaccinated very soon and everything else goes as well as possible. Best wishes to your mom and your family. 2021-03-17 17:58:05 I know, it's hard to mentally adjust: last few months have been dominated by the dire, ongoing shortages. It's hard to believe. But the math is clear: we will have more the enough vaccines for anyone who wants one here in the US sooner than AZ would be approved here in the US. 2021-03-17 17:55:18 Folks, we have 60 million doses *sitting* in our warehouses in Ohio and Baltimore for vaccines that aren't approved here, whose US trials haven't concluded, that will not be approved till too late. They are approved in Canada and her mom needs one now. https://t.co/AjLyDy33bA 2021-03-17 17:48:58 I don't have a strong opinion on where they go—there are many choices, but yes, whatever is going on in EU is an issue. However, as you can see below, Canada—facing a potential B117 surge in many locations—has approved them, would use them, and needs them. https://t.co/LgSE462Cr6 2021-03-17 17:37:53 @torrHL Because that's not how it works here, and looking at what's going on with their trials (a mess) and the trust issues they are now facing in EU, I am not sure FDA is coming out of this looking bad. But we are where we are, mostly because we got real-world data and they got lucky. 2021-03-17 17:14:06 @MMKavanagh Whole other ball of wax there, that others have been writing about... I wanted to make a focused case on this one aspect (and am totally for whatever else needs to happen to increase supply now and get people vaccinated). 2021-03-17 17:01:33 Because it's not endangering anyone. It's approved in the UK, Canada, EU and through the WHO coalition, in 140+ countries and has been given to 17 million people in UK and EU. The US FDA requires the trials it requires, and that's a different discussion. https://t.co/8rOmqAtZrO 2021-03-17 16:56:03 We can figure out the politics of where AZ should go. There are countries with large outbreaks (especially of that terrible B117 variant) in Europe, for example. Other countries elsewhere may ask for them, solving the "optics" issue. What's on us is to demand they get used, now. 2021-03-17 16:51:47 @jeffrey3927 Their cases and deaths are way, way down despite the fact they've opened up their economy. Their problem was the same as UK: they got hit with B117 before getting vaccines started. It's a very nasty variant, and why we should let AZ go now to other places at risk. 2021-03-17 16:45:05 @stewfortier @Clayton_Dorge Thank you! 2021-03-17 16:44:40 ... but it's definitely true that AZ rollout has been a spectacular mess, but that's separate. (I will probably rant on that in my newsletter). So far 11 million doses in UK, 6 in Europe, 500,000 in Canada have been administered... It's not a vaccine just for poor/brown folk. 2021-03-17 16:42:12 To folks saying AZ is an inferior vaccine so we shouldn't give it away even if we can't use it. "Not approved yet because US trial not concluded" doesn't mean inferior. Novavax looks spectacular (from trials elsewhere) but also not approved here because trial not concluded...+ 2021-03-17 16:39:01 @dapburt @EricTopol This isn't approved for use here. It's not a 1-dose vaccine. I don't see how an unapproved vaccine connects to vaccine hesitancy here. 2021-03-17 16:38:15 @NavinPokala @channel_echo Seventeen million doses have been administered in UK and Europe... The framing here doesn't seem right. We also haven't yet approved Novavax (trial not concluded) but it looks like an excellent vaccine from trials elsewhere. 2021-03-16 22:31:45 RT @HelenBranswell: This is amazing: Today is the first anniversary of the day on which the first person in Moderna's Phase 1 trial receive… 2021-03-16 21:47:44 RT @AdamSerwer: Some genuinely bizarre examples in this @helenlewis piece about hoaxters passing as other ethnicities https://t.co/qv6Vd4hx… 2021-03-16 19:47:21 @bengardnernyc @verymarkm @jwitker That is actually true. Outdoor transmission does occur, but it is fairly rare and is usually under conditions of close contact for lengthy periods of time. Hanging out in a sunny vast beach like in the picture is among the safest things people can do in a respiratory pandemic. 2021-03-16 19:45:21 @MoNscience @peterstaley @apoorva_nyc @angie_rasmussen @kakape @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh And I do think the "legacy" arguments with policy folks and goodwill/moral arguments with ordinary folks have a lot more weight than assumed, though as with anything else, policy folk need to be pushed and vague public support channeled. 2021-03-16 19:42:55 @MoNscience @peterstaley @apoorva_nyc @angie_rasmussen @kakape @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh Agree, in fact, working on something like that to whatever degree words have weight right now, but I can see a drop in interest in anything abroad as vaccination makes progress here. The variant situation makes it urgent, imo, because of what's happening "there" *right now.* 2021-03-16 17:01:37 RT @TimHarford: "Perhaps we can and we should argue that the many billions of people in the world are worth vaccinating simply because they… 2021-03-16 15:37:12 @ZoeMcLaren @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @jbkrell @MMKavanagh It's plausible "but variants" works on policymakers without having the intended effect on broader public (who agreeably may not matter). I also won't be surprised if some portion vaccinated people quickly book, say, vacations elsewhere without feeling that much at risk. 2021-03-16 15:35:29 @ZoeMcLaren @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @jbkrell @MMKavanagh Vaccinated people may well feel protected enough (in ways that is not completely unfounded) for now & 2021-03-16 14:21:13 @JamesSurowiecki @literaryeric 10% is an incredibly high number to be "not fine" though. 2021-03-16 14:15:03 @apoorva_nyc @MoNscience @angie_rasmussen @kakape @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh Definitely, though one possibility is that the world may "unshrink" and/or become even more one-way (as anyone who holds non US/Europe passwords can attest that it was already pretty tilted) after a once-in-a-century pandemic. 2021-03-16 13:13:19 @kakape @MMKavanagh @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 Yes! I wrote this exact argument in 2014 when the Ebola panic was "will it come to the United States." My point was: that's the wrong focus. We can handle it *but* the selfish and moral long-term argument is can we contain potential pandemics? That's key. https://t.co/KsgIbk35Gg https://t.co/wcg7OeK9Rw 2021-03-16 13:03:40 @MMKavanagh @kakape @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 Sigh, I can believe this resonates with the overlords. It's a bit like how some economic theories of the selfish individual only work on econ majors. I guess I don't know it's good or bad if they think it through a little bit more. 2021-03-16 13:01:28 @angie_rasmussen @kakape @apoorva_nyc @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh Yeah I say this in the piece but it's clearly plausible and may be both (seems everyone agrees). The point Kai is making is that the selfish argument on variant threats, logically, speaking, is to hoard the vaccine here *now* while the moral argument is to vaccinate "them" now. 2021-03-16 12:59:02 @peterstaley @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh I completely and wholeheartedly hope that the argument becomes moot because we do pressure governments to vaccinate globally, and I buy that the "it's for our own good now" argument may impact elite opinion regardless the reality/strength of it. 2021-03-16 12:58:03 @peterstaley @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh I think it is plausible that travel/freedom of movement will become primarily one-way for a while. I think people are underestimating the option that vaccinated people will feel safe enough to vacation "there" while we keep people from "there" from coming here because "variants". 2021-03-16 12:47:32 @MMKavanagh @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 I'm willing to buy that that this argument may be the one that moves elite opinion and perhaps that matters more. Elites aren't always rational but they do tend to, often incorrectly, have a Hobbesian view of the public when it is often them, not the public, that is prone to it. 2021-03-16 12:45:58 @peterstaley @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh Perception/fears of infectious diseases/xenophobia/discrimination have long been completely intertwined. It was as late as 2009 (after much pressure) USG allowed HIV+ people to apply for citizenship, and US *still* excludes TB for example. And that's all recent! 2021-03-16 12:43:29 @MMKavanagh @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 I guess it can move elite opinion. See that with climate, too. (We all agree let's not be sociopaths isn't the argument anyone prefers). I don't see such arguments moving public opinion in a positive way though: historically, such fears end up with demanding closure/exclusion. 2021-03-16 12:41:22 @JInterlandi @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh It may well backfire. We've seen, historically, what happens when there is a massive ideological campaign about the disease threats emerging from "over there". Doesn't usually end up with demand for access for better treatment for "them" so they can travel/move globally. 2021-03-16 12:34:46 @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh And I'm merely pointing out that some people back then also thought the selfish HIV argument would work (I heard it a lot at the time!) and it did not really work.Y'all had to push. Is there an example of it working? (Yes we all agree shouldn't have to come down to this). 2021-03-16 12:32:38 @apoorva_nyc @gregggonsalves @jbkrell @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh The argument isn't that variants will not emerge elsewhere. The point is that's not the *only* source of their emergence and it's plausible that the vaccine/booster cycle makes many here feel protected enough for the appeal to selfishness not to work—did not work for HIV access. 2021-03-16 12:28:50 @jbkrell @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh The analogy isn't to the type of virus at all, it is to the type of appeals made to ordinary people in wealthy countries. 2021-03-16 12:28:06 @apoorva_nyc @gregggonsalves @jbkrell @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @MMKavanagh Historically, I think we overestimate the power of the "selfish" argument (HIV is an example not the same type of virus) & 2021-03-16 12:14:36 @gregggonsalves @apoorva_nyc @kakape @peterstaley @TAGTeam_Tweets @_HassanF @CarlosdelRio7 @jbkrell @MMKavanagh That's what it may take, this time, too. As we've seen with HIV, too, it's perfectly plausible for effective drugs to shield a select few for a very, very long time—and the "but it will mutate elsewhere" never become realized as a big enough threat to move the needle. 2021-03-16 11:46:21 @gregggonsalves @kakape In other words, it is not an implausible scenario that widespread vaccination plus boosters will do the job of protecting those in wealthy countries (immorally leaving behind everyone else) and also that variants do not arise solely because of unchecked population-level growth. 2021-03-16 11:44:44 @gregggonsalves @kakape It is, of course, better to have less of the virus anywhere. That said, a single chronic infection treated with antivirals is a completely plausible ongoing source for variants, and I do not need to tell you "HIV will mutate and drugs will stop working" wasn't what got access. 2021-03-16 11:32:50 @astroehlein @hrw @ajkashy @MargaretWurth @MSF_access @peoplesvaccine I think we should emphasize that part. Not sure the other works, or works well, tbh. 2021-03-16 02:48:33 @kasza_leslie @HelenBranswell Thank you! 2021-03-16 02:48:09 RT @niubi: Hearing vpn now needed in china from numerous people 2021-03-16 02:38:21 @julianlewis2012 @jwitker Indeed. 2021-03-16 02:30:55 @tomgara @annehelen @felixsalmon @fromedome @kevinroose Except there are only four newsletters in the whole world, apparently. 2021-03-16 02:29:53 @cailinanne Heh. Thank you. 2021-03-16 02:28:16 @alivealice9 @jwitker https://t.co/hU6R0UBspW 2021-03-16 02:26:42 @rondel305 @jwitker And that’s what the message should be about. If you want an adult not to poke electrical outlet with metal objects, you don’t lecture them nonstop about fork etiquette for a year. 2021-03-16 02:23:07 @annehelen @felixsalmon @fromedome @kevinroose Heh 2021-03-16 02:19:27 @andreamatranga @jwitker Bikinis? 2021-03-16 02:17:32 @annehelen @felixsalmon @fromedome @kevinroose You don’t count either, Anne! (I subscribe to your excellent newsletter though!) 2021-03-16 02:15:28 This will never end. We can have 3000 million more epidemiological studies but they’ll still be shaming people for the what are probably the safest possible activities in a pandemic due to a respiratory pathogen. ht @jwitker https://t.co/rTxLitpdgx 2021-03-16 02:11:04 @felixsalmon @fromedome @kevinroose That’s exactly right. If you are attuned to the Twitter brouhaha, neither the long-tail nor Heather Cox Richardson is visible. (If anything is missing, it’s better discovery mechanisms independent of Twitter/Facebook but nothing algorithmic—that leads back to same place). 2021-03-16 02:03:18 @sethgoldin Thank you! 2021-03-16 01:35:39 @PaulSaxMD Heh 2021-03-16 01:14:05 @rvenkayya And I’m not even convinced it’s that effective. 2021-03-15 22:56:11 @azeen I’m sorry. 2021-03-15 21:54:04 RT @kakape: This by @zeynep is a very important point that I have been going back and forth about with experts in recent days and weeks as… 2021-03-15 21:34:06 @HelenBranswell Thank you, Helen. 2021-03-15 20:43:40 RT @insight: I wrote about something that's been bugging me: the argument for vaccinating the world because of variants that would emerge *… 2021-03-15 14:08:28 @ariehkovler I don't know. IMO the "vaccines are less efficient against variants" stories are over-reported. Maybe something to some variants more than others, but complete focus on (easy-to-measure) humoral immunity, almost no reports on cell-mediated immunity or powered population data yet. 2021-03-15 14:00:24 @WesPegden The latest Nature paper has raw numbers as well, and they look the same. I think transmissibility is no longer in doubt, and higher mortality looking pretty likely (UK and Denmark data, five or six separate papers). More than enough to act upon. 2021-03-15 13:55:47 Unlike last March, where we faced many unknowns with limited tools, we have especially excellent tools in our arsenal with vaccines. Again, exponential threats are best addressed by early, decisive action—no matter the uncertainty—rather than waiting around for more information. 2021-03-15 13:53:38 @WesPegden It's not hypothetical as we have UK numbers from last few months. 2021-03-15 13:52:15 Our many vaccines all report impressive numbers against severe outcomes even with the variants, and dithering over what is at best an incomplete understanding of their differences when the alternative—non-vaccination—is obviously so much worse MAKES NO SENSE. 2021-03-15 13:44:49 This one is not! Also, the others reported usually in sensationalist terms are, so far, linked only to lower *neutralizing antibodies* which is not the same as lower efficacy (though a bit is likely) especially against severe disease/hospitalization/death. https://t.co/4IqGUtBcwQ 2021-03-15 13:41:52 It looks like the US will escape this—just outrunning it though it may stall progress here and there—because of our rapid & 2021-03-15 13:39:27 Bad news. This is the fifth paper convincingly showing that the UK variant B.1.1.7 is associated with increased mortality as well as being more transmissible. Countries without rapid and sufficient vaccine coverage may experience a rough spring (worse for Southern hemisphere). https://t.co/QEyhYeECpX 2021-03-15 03:31:39 @bnjd18 @iskander 2021-03-15 02:49:09 @bnjd18 @iskander I’d love to see the reference to any mosquito suspicion he might’ve had! 2021-03-15 02:36:43 RT @mcpheeceo: The names of Donald Duck's nephews in various European languages. https://t.co/1zOTgwqoCQ 2021-03-15 02:28:13 @ehaspel Yeah. A whole year and it’s ongoing. 2021-03-15 02:26:03 @bnjd18 @iskander Which inventor and what year? 2021-03-15 02:14:26 @bnjd18 @iskander I don’t think I’d say that. I’ve read a lot of primary documents about Yellow Fever—it’s an interest of mine—from that era and people were a lot more systematic in their thinking that we give them credit for, imo. That said, tools more limited. 2021-03-15 02:06:48 @iskander @bnjd18 It took. A. Long. Time. I mean, think about it? “The foul smelling, filthy air that’s making you feel like you’re choking isn’t making you sick, but this crystal clear glass of water from this pump at Broad Street is because it’s full of gremlins too small to see. Trust me!” 2021-03-15 01:36:43 @iskander Fascinating history. Someone will write an excellent book, eventually but goes back to germ theory vs. miasma wars overcorrection/dogma from what I can tell—plus there are blatant errors of physics in current official docs waiting for pandemic to settle, I guess, for correction. 2021-03-15 00:54:31 @jeremy_d_cohen I have no idea what study they are referring to! We had a better study recently. It is definitely a problem and can be debilitating for some but 1 in 3 sounds.. very high compared to the literature we have. No idea where they got the number. 2021-03-15 00:25:47 @aleszubajak @nytimes Yeah. My 2020 beat refuses to go away. 2021-03-14 23:46:34 @ymandel @DDelgadoVive Here's a lengthy thread https://t.co/mKZaYYqc43 2021-03-14 23:42:52 Tau folk, I see you in my mentions but after having spent many years in this country with the dreaded imperial system, I can survive radius instead of diameter—but promise to join your cause if you can get us to the metric system. :-D 2021-03-14 23:22:01 @AchimLittlepage @HikerDave57 hahaha 2021-03-14 23:15:49 @AchimLittlepage @jelorias95 I'm definitely on team Tart. 2021-03-14 23:05:41 @HikerDave57 √2 back at you. 2021-03-14 02:05:25 @evanbd @ChanaMessinger @Noahpinion Yeah it’s not. Reporting period shift. Still an amazing number, though. 2021-03-14 01:30:44 Three million doses a day, two days in a row in an incredible pace. We should keep this up and keep expanding access. https://t.co/ZxchhkATtS 2021-03-13 23:36:20 @ashishkjha Amazing. Excellent pace. 2021-03-13 21:23:14 Increase supply of the vaccines, and distribute globally. That’s what we have to do in 2021. https://t.co/8OjGJ0WOwP 2021-03-13 21:05:16 More precisely: https://t.co/RxGXtUyTG0 2021-03-13 21:03:53 @EricTopol Yeah fingers crossed! My local clinic is doing more than 1000 daily—it used to be 200 just recently! The supply increase is so palpable. We had 500+ J& 2021-03-13 21:01:16 Both the US and the UK botched many aspects of their pandemic response. But vaccination isn’t “one more tool” somehow equal or similar to the others in our toolkit. Make that happen, and things can improve quickly despite issues . Miss that? Things can tip back quickly. 2021-03-13 20:53:16 Yes, US should immediately release what AZ supplies we have. We have more than enough of the other three so time to move on that. https://t.co/dzgoN8WwIn 2021-03-13 20:50:42 Problem with exponential threats is by the time scale of the problem is obvious, it’s too late. We got pretty solid data on higher transmissibility of B.1.1.7 late December. I don’t understand what happened with Europe’s decision makers. We have to vaccinate globally and quickly. 2021-03-13 20:46:34 Italy just entered its third lockdown and Merkel’s Germany, too, announced they will be delaying boosters like the UK—a strategy Europe mostly denounced back then. US is likely escaping this dilemma because we have unmatched supply and got B117 introductions later than Europe. 2021-03-13 20:43:15 It increasingly looks like many European countries that didn’t manage to hit on the accelerator for vaccination (everyone besides UK, I think?) may risk another terrible surge from B.1.1.7. (UK also delayed boosters to increase coverage quickly). Exponentials are dangerous. https://t.co/eZCYX481fa 2021-03-13 19:13:18 @RMac53B People have been saying this for a year now but... If that’s the problem, that’s what we should talk about. It makes no sense to aggressively highlight and shame the safest part of an activity to “hint” (in one’s mind) at something completely different. 2021-03-13 17:38:15 Even the text of the article cannot reach photo editors, I guess? “When the state did not close beaches, there was national outrage, though the decision seems obvious in retrospect, given how much safer people are outside.” https://t.co/ZAENOfn7ko 2021-03-13 17:17:10 RT @covidpath: Similar point from @zeynep https://t.co/ZN742Omfsz 2021-03-13 14:45:08 RT @Bird00001: @nytimeswell Really not right to share this article without also providing much needed context from @zeynep 2021-03-13 14:32:36 RT @jbsgreenberg: NEW INVESTIGATION: The govt says to trust the nursing home rating system with the most gutting decision: where to send a… 2021-03-13 13:55:23 @timbray On this one, yeah. 2021-03-13 01:17:16 @susanyolo @jflier Yeah, it's weird. People are calculating "herd immunity" through only vaccination, as if the 100 million infected don't count and and as if "herd immunity" is a binary line you cross and then no more outbreaks, etc. etc. 2021-03-13 01:12:30 @Craig_A_Spencer Oh, yikes, no. Terrible, terrible news. 2021-03-13 01:10:01 @TheJedReport Yeah, I'm sorry. I hope it gets smoother soon wherever you are. Supply i really ramping up in many place so fingers crossed. 2021-03-13 01:08:17 @BrentNYT We have exactly this happening in Chapel Hill, NC—almost a hundred families in mobile homes facing eviction because an investment firm acquired the land and now wants to negotiate with the city council for favorable zoning in rest of area, in return for letting the families stay. 2021-03-13 01:00:34 @jflier Dr. Gottlieb is one of the more surprising figures of this pandemic for me. I did not expect to have as much respect for him and his pronouncements and predictions, but he's been really, really solid and balanced and forward leaning for good and bad moments. Respect. 2021-03-13 00:44:48 I could not more highly recommend Dr. Marr's sharp, clear exposition of COVID transmission mechanisms. Read the testimony and the whole thread (and wish more had, since last year when she tried so hard.) Her excellent, precise work will have huge impact going forward (one hopes). https://t.co/AS7B8U3QG3 2021-03-12 23:00:21 @ahandvanish @PaulSaxMD It’s a short newsletter essay focusing on a common methodological problem! I didn’t at all set out to write the definitive piece on the topic—just a nudge to do better exactly because it’s an important issue. 2021-03-12 22:45:47 RT @rabihalameddine: 2,400 year-old skeleton mosaic in Turkey that says: 'Be cheerful, enjoy your life' https://t.co/bFS3BA3LTF 2021-03-12 22:37:03 @GregDore2 Thank you. Of course I’m absolutely not dismissing the problem. If I didn’t think Long Covid was a real and important issue, there would be no need to bother pointing out coverage that does a disservice to the problem. 2021-03-12 21:59:37 RT @PaulSaxMD: Spot-on analysis of this problematic report of long covid in people who (reportedly) never had symptoms during acute infecti… 2021-03-12 21:48:14 @AlexKresovich Same! And good luck. 2021-03-12 21:47:50 @snappity I volunteer as well and it is the single most joyous experience of this terrible pandemic. 2021-03-12 20:50:53 @joan8904 @PaulSaxMD @NateSilver538 You didn’t read the article, right? 2021-03-12 20:30:07 @deblatorre @PaulSaxMD @NateSilver538 That’s different. I have no doubt there are sufferers who never got a positive test because testing wasn’t available to them. 2021-03-12 20:04:09 @PaulSaxMD Thank you! 2021-03-12 18:04:31 I was thinking that I should also check what I was doing in The Before Times. Two years ago this week, I was at CERN for Web's 30th anniversary, hearing stories of the early web, and getting tours of CERN's LHC and listening to people talk about their anti-matter experiments. https://t.co/h44LYK9Vn4 2021-03-12 18:00:15 @AaronRichterman @insight Yeah though that probably won't matter for the confusion and the panic the coverage has already engendered. The updates either don't happen or don't get anywhere near the attention. 2021-03-12 17:41:22 @AaronRichterman @insight Yeah, exactly. I found the study weak so why this coverage? I think it has simultaneously done a disservice to Long Covid and to anxiety—both real issues. Plus, from my—admittedly limited observations—it has created another round of panic among some people towards the vaccines. 2021-03-12 17:27:02 RT @insight: Long Covid is a real issue that's increasingly sensationalized and turned almost into a type of moral panic. I wrote a post on… 2021-03-12 14:21:29 Anyway, I really, really hope Google themselves and these 130 companies named actually hire the graduates of this program—and also hire more graduates of non-elite universities and other non-college-grads, too. 2021-03-12 14:19:04 To finalize the point, more training is fine but there's decades of research that the (obvious) key problem in the US job market is *scarcity* of good, stable jobs across the education ladder. (Also always check where people who run these things send their own kids). 2021-03-12 14:15:39 (I started as a self-taught technical person—tween coders of the world unite—, got a job, paid my own way through college/degree, worked professionally later so I'm not at all dismissive of that route but lol to disrupting the college degree until they start hiring differently). 2021-03-12 14:13:06 If Google, Apple, Facebook et al.—which hire a lot from Harvard, Berkeley, CMU, Stanford, MIT etc—change their *own* hiring practices for technical/engineering roles, yeah that could disrupt the college degree (unlike offering a certificate which is fine but isn't disruptive). 2021-03-12 14:07:35 This is marketed as "Google's plan to disrupt the college degree." These plans come-and-go & 2021-03-12 14:01:46 And to round this out, a reduction in anxiety is not a minor thing! Anxiety is a debilitating condition in its extreme forms, but persistent anxiety is unhealthy and real in its effects. (Not a mind/body dualist here). Big deal in my opinion if it really is a widespread effect. 2021-03-12 13:52:06 (Also I should add that there would be nothing wrong with —especially private—behavioral change among the vaccinated. That's the point of vaccination. They *are* safer. It's not a "false" sense of security because the increased security from being vaccinated is very real.) 2021-03-12 13:50:28 @AaronRichterman I'm remembering a mention of "less severe" somewhere but can't find it. I hope they have sequencing and cycle data in the full EUA. 2021-03-12 13:47:00 So this one is "anecdata may not apply"—I haven't checked widely—but the reaction I'm seeing to being vaccinated seems to be more dramatic reduction in *anxiety* while remaining fairly conservative, yet, with changing behavior. I bet the US mood is gonna shift soon—dramatically. 2021-03-12 04:55:33 @richdavisphd 2021-03-12 02:17:09 @MonicaGandhi9 And they're almost all stabilized spikes, too. Turning out to be one neat trick, as @dylanhmorris likes to occasionally remind. (So far ChAdOx1 is the only one I know using the spike but without prefusion stabilization). https://t.co/B3fwj9g7yG 2021-03-12 02:03:26 One more! Exceeds reported efficacy for mRNA vaccines, strong result even against the South African variant (which has demonstrated the highest immune escape so far). Also? So far: "100% protection against severe disease" in all groups. Another billion doses, globally, for 2021! https://t.co/tHiVgKj27w 2021-03-11 19:46:38 @WesPegden @dylanhmorris Well, obviously going from no COVID to COVID is a bigger shift than COVID—a year in—to more transmissible version as a threat. I don't think that's in dispute. 2021-03-11 19:35:22 @WesPegden @dylanhmorris You could say the same thing when Italy was being crushed last spring and it hadn't *yet* "panned out" in France or Canada. Again, prior immunity, vaccination rate and NPIs will impact but ceteris paribus, if Italy is hit, that's a threat to any similar, nearby country. 2021-03-11 19:32:59 @therealrthorat @WesPegden @dylanhmorris Then you also realize we did not get B.1.1.7 introduced/growing in the US until more recently—unlike UK, obviously and much of Europe—and we have been lucky that way? Motte-and-bailey needs a bit better finessing here. 2021-03-11 19:29:01 @therealrthorat @WesPegden @dylanhmorris Have you heard of this interesting development called "vaccines"? That the United States has a lot of? 2021-03-11 19:28:22 @GonzoFrankD @BillHanage @dylanhmorris US has tragically high level of existing infection (thus people with some level of immunity) and probably the biggest vaccine supply in the world right now. I think may be able to *just* outrun this. Not so for everywhere else in the world. 2021-03-11 19:26:31 @WesPegden @dylanhmorris Places without widespread vaccination risk another surge seems pretty straightforward? Italy reported 17% of its cases were the UK variant about a month ago. It's lagging in vaccination 2021-03-11 19:18:15 @BillHanage @dylanhmorris Yeah. Prior immunity/NPI level/vaccination and introductions/stochasticity is going to impact trajectories but... the amount of stickiness in UK and Israel even after vaccinations began provide a clue, too. US looks to be *just* outrunning it which is great but... not everywhere. 2021-03-11 19:13:42 @WesPegden @dylanhmorris But why do you need precise predictions to say that a variant that is 1.5-2x more transmissible is a huge public health threat. Clearly, prior immunity and vaccination rate and/or NPI levels will impact the level of threat and trajectory but... a threat it is. 2021-03-11 18:23:39 @dylanhmorris It's probably going to sweep a lot of European countries—even ones that had massive waves because "massive waves" usually involve 10-30% infected, leaving another 70% vulnerable. I don't understand why it's so hard to explain how exponential threats work, even after a year. 2021-03-11 18:13:11 The UK variant has done great damage, and will likely soon do real damage in places without widespread vaccination *right now*. The US may—just—escape the brunt because we do have robust vaccine supply... Immune escape is a real concern but exponentials are still terrible. 2021-03-11 17:58:31 @_shrimbegin Thank you! 2021-03-11 17:54:39 @_shrimbegin That is not true, but this pandemic has unfolded sadly predictably. 2021-03-11 17:53:47 Also, the highly-transmissible UK variant isn't getting the same headlines because it doesn't cause drops in NAb titers against our vaccines, but it is! THAT THING REMAINS A HUGE THREAT and we need to vaccinate the world as fast as possible. Transmissibility is a huge danger. 2021-03-11 17:49:20 We've long known about the South African variant causing drops in neutralizing antibodies. Boosters are in the works, and given that the epidemic rose and fell very fast with those variants in South Africa even without vaccines is encouraging. Let's vaccinate widely and globally. 2021-03-11 17:45:49 It's been a year. Nobody who is unable to read a lab paper about neutralizing antibody titers & 2021-03-11 17:40:56 There, I fixed it for you, @BusinessInsider and @thehill. https://t.co/ySHAtifqjf 2021-03-11 17:36:39 Are we still this bad at this? The study looked at NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODIES not vaccine effectiveness—there's a relationship but it's not straightforward as those are not the whole immune system and just drops don't make vaccines "at least 10 times less effective against variant". https://t.co/ZOHzokCaR0 2021-03-11 15:25:52 @CJKistinMD So glad to hear it was useful to your parents! (I hope they are already vaccinated as well!). What a year. 2021-03-11 15:11:04 And also one year ago today. (At the time, it still seemed preposterous to say all of this... Protect the elderly. Prepare to stay home. Yet, it was already obvious: Wuhan, Italy, Iran...) https://t.co/PmkBi4Rrbo 2021-03-11 15:08:34 Another one year ago, today. https://t.co/OzchN8RIyx 2021-03-11 15:07:05 More one year ago, today. https://t.co/kcrlAy2RTH 2021-03-11 15:06:26 Also one year ago, today. https://t.co/kjznTxDoHT 2021-03-11 15:05:29 One year ago, today: another frustrated thread. I hold the same opinion. The WHO is an essential institution with a large-number of hard-working, excellent employees and experts. But it absolutely needs reform to make it actually independent, nimble and responsive. https://t.co/iXPzlPMwjP 2021-03-11 14:50:13 @joshgans @benthompson Yeah, absolutely. I think some of these things can be addressed with moving to a transparency/accountability model that explicitly acknowledges uncertainty. (Not acknowledging it doesn't keep it out of the public sphere—it's not the fifties anymore anyway). 2021-03-11 03:31:39 @AaronRichterman for your thread! https://t.co/FMyGdtzrMP 2021-03-11 02:05:20 @ariehkovler @FourWinns298 I think the stubbornly more transmissible UK variant remains a key challenge (we can vaccinate against it but the world doesn't have enough vaccines and more transmissible real thorny challenge). 2021-03-11 02:03:09 And then "suddenly masks were in high demand." That was 1910. Dr. Wu also established an effective quarantine and created safe-handling procedures for the deceased which essentially ended the terrible epidemic. He then modernized China's medical services. https://t.co/u8rZCVkKkY https://t.co/Dn0wTD7x5b 2021-03-11 01:55:05 Stop me if you heard this one. Dr. Wu realized that the pneumonic plague was airborne and could spread person-to-person and said people should wear masks. French doctor mocked this, insinuated Asian doctors couldn't be right, refused to wear a mask—and got infected and died. https://t.co/lAIwWjwnrL 2021-03-11 01:36:52 RT @FourWinns298: Vaccines will work and it's not as transmissible as other variants. There was a big media kerfuffle that turned out to be… 2021-03-11 01:36:08 RT @HelenBranswell: The California variant, a play in 3 tweets. 2021-03-10 20:47:40 @swiffydk No not at all. That is totally reasonable. That's exactly the kind of thing that is concerning, that we should be aware of, and that should cause us not to relax certain precautions too early. 2021-03-10 20:46:45 (This thread is a reaction to the number of responses I've received to CDC's announcements that fully-vaccinated people can hang out indoors unmasked with a version of "but variants". What is the biological mechanism through which vaccinated interaction engenders "variants"?) 2021-03-10 20:44:33 Existing variants are concerning. We do need ongoing surveillance to spot and react to new ones (and thankfully UK had extensive genomic surveillance for example). But can we *please* stop referring to them as if they are some mysterious hex certain to smite the unworthy? 2021-03-10 20:39:33 We have existing variants-of-concern (three, specifically) and a few worth watching and many (reported with worry but probably no big deal). One or more may have well risen during chronic infections in *individual* immunocompromised patients treated with plasma. 2021-03-10 20:29:53 There seems to be some extraordinary sense I keep encountering out there that dangerous virus variants are certain to emerge [unless policy I prefer is followed]. I'm all for vaccinating globally as fast as we can 2021-03-10 04:13:45 @k8em0 “admin:admin” 2021-03-10 03:53:08 @walterolson @JerusalemDemsas Congratulations! 2021-03-10 03:32:00 RT @JerusalemDemsas: Full article here: https://t.co/fx2OUr2LdI 2021-03-10 03:31:57 RT @JerusalemDemsas: Nothing has made me more comfortable to "just take the first vaccine offered" than this essay from @zeynep. It doesn… 2021-03-10 00:05:56 @CarolineYLChen @lindy2350 https://t.co/AAB0JcmqVn 2021-03-10 00:02:24 @javid_lab @EricTopol Israel, too. US is really lucky with regards to vaccine supply and variant introduction/spread timing. (Or something else, too? Transmissibility is a real uphill fight if one is playing catch up), 2021-03-09 22:55:36 @selectedwisdom @TheAtlantic @DeadlineWH @MSNBC 2021-03-09 16:52:13 @ProfMattFox hahhaha 2021-03-09 15:11:43 @ProfMattFox You tweet the question so everyone you've been on a zoom call with for the past week is now wondering it happened during their call—or, if they are the ones who did that, they are wondering if it was wrong. 2021-03-09 14:37:04 RT @insight: And this is part two on vaccines and variants. The three vaccines approved in the US have differences, but does that lend itse… 2021-03-09 05:21:25 @beckness @doriantaylor https://t.co/erZXup2dVu 2021-03-09 03:32:35 RT @EricTopol: You know it's a good covid day when..... 1. Vaccinees can hug each other, unmasked, blessed by CDC 2. The descent in cases… 2021-03-09 03:31:09 @avtansh 2021-03-09 02:59:36 @JamesGleick “Don’t wait! Operators are waiting!” 2021-03-09 02:55:11 RT @davidcbaker: Don't think too much about which vaccine to take, if you have a choice between the three. https://t.co/3gci5DmoST 2021-03-09 01:02:19 @MarcGoldwein @AlexGodofsky @ezraklein Also they were in a real pickle with the B117 far far more advanced. I think they may have averted a catastrophe—rapid and broad coverage with what they have. I’m not at all saying they were wrong. I am not sure the European countries will do as well. But different for the US. 2021-03-09 00:57:03 @AlexGodofsky @MarcGoldwein @ezraklein *UK/US differences? Launches into Twitter thread about the royal family feud and the war of 1812* Seriously though I think we are doing the world and this vaccine a favor by presenting a clear-cut trial, finally. 2021-03-09 00:55:03 @AlexGodofsky @MarcGoldwein @ezraklein Things that may work in the UK/Oxford/NHS context do not translate here the same way, especially in terms of trust and uptake. They don’t even work in Germany. 2021-03-09 00:52:37 @justjoshinyou13 @ezraklein I am completely for increasing global supply through all possible means—including converting factories to produce each others vaccines. Another billion or two J& 2021-03-09 00:49:27 @ezraklein It’s not approved because we don’t have the kind of placebo-controlled data we use for a vaccine approvals. That’s genuinely on Oxford/AZ tbh. There is a mystery still to what happened. That paper is nice—but it really is confounded data. I think FDA was right back then on this. 2021-03-09 00:42:34 @kissane 2021-03-09 00:41:07 @ezraklein I think letting the US trial finish and provide the clarity/data we don’t have is going to be a positive contribution to this key vaccine, which is very important for the world. It’s what most of the world will get probably. 2021-03-09 00:38:48 @SamoreTed @ezraklein There are seven billion people in the world. We are going to have vaccines available for all adults in two months. Many countries may not get any till 2022. 2021-03-09 00:37:20 @ezraklein It’s quite likely the vaccine is good. This is a good looking chart. But it’s still not the Kaplan–Meier curve we get from placebo-controlled trials. Plus, the US doesn’t need a fourth vaccine now given global supply constraints. 2021-03-09 00:34:11 @ezraklein Also, the United States has more than enough supply at the moment compared to its disease burden and especially in a global context—and AstraZeneca doesn’t have an excess and has delivery issues. Plus the world will benefit from the clarity/data of the US trial. 2021-03-09 00:31:19 @ezraklein The results are great. But I think there were genuine issues with the ChAdOx1 trial and its data. The vaccine may still be excellent. But look at the damage the confusion did in Germany to public trust/vaccine uptake. (I feel differently about rapid test non-approval). 2021-03-09 00:27:05 @syramadad Amazing. Congratulations all around on a joyous milestone. 2021-03-09 00:21:19 @notdred @stgoldst It’s really a cool discussion. 2021-03-09 00:20:29 RT @notdred: Have to cap this off with this excellent thread on viral evolution by @stgoldst 2021-03-08 23:29:59 RT @CT_Bergstrom: While I tend to be generally optimistic about these issues, I don’t buy the argument here. Thousand-dimensional spaces ar… 2021-03-08 18:06:59 @iskander @notdred @UWVirology I was telling someone. Major US universities should have formed a consortium of experts last February—the latest when Nancy Messonnier got silenced. The authority should not malfunction like this, but the job of fighting it shouldn't have been left to individuals on social media. 2021-03-08 18:04:17 @iskander @notdred (But then again lots of cranks around who think they are Galileo and "did I already email you my latest 350 page paper on quantum immunity?"). I get snake-oil PR pitches for anti-COVID stuff daily. It's been a weird year. 2021-03-08 18:00:50 @iskander @notdred It's been a weird year, no? Sometimes, yep it is "science changed". But we've had a lot of things where that wasn't the case, really but an overblown reaction to the suggestion that the authorities were behind "the science". Then again, one doesn't expect what happened last year. 2021-03-08 17:52:06 @JenniferNuzzo @AaronRichterman Thank you! I think there has been a sizable chorus for a while. 2021-03-08 17:51:06 @mattpressberg If they are more comfortable, it's an option. I think these are the kind of things for which common sense and transmission intuition is useful. I would not wear an N95 outdoors, especially post-vax. I might going into a crowded poorly ventilated space. Risk reduction is real. 2021-03-08 17:48:52 @AaronRichterman @notdred YOU POLLED. Hah, thank you. 2021-03-08 17:48:13 @AaronRichterman It is. And I'm all for keeping public stuff steady for a while. No two classes of people. Especially not when we are vaccinating so rapidly but when access/equity issues remain. 2021-03-08 17:47:20 @notdred Ha, right? If I had not lived through last year—despite teaching about group/social dynamics for many years—I wouldn't have believed it myself. I have new respect for the argumentative folks, though—the ones who have substantive disagreement before and after The Word comes down. 2021-03-08 17:43:42 The ramp down (and that's what it is) from the pandemic has the same sociological issue as ramp-up. Even if we had widespread tests & 2021-03-08 17:40:48 @notdred What happens is lot of people seem to have a mental checkbox that move things from "misinformation" to "science" when the guidelines (if/when/finally) change. (Obviously, it wasn't that before, and reasonable disagreements may persist... But that's not how it operates usually). 2021-03-08 17:38:40 Lemme add from my last article. I think vaccinated people should keep up *public* precautions not because I think they are still at high risk, but because we shouldn't have two classes of people while there's community spread/people without vaccine access. https://t.co/sIzP9hYvUs https://t.co/i7wJkPr3La 2021-03-08 17:34:01 @AaronRichterman I appreciate some people may still find these too lax or too strict, but the amount of confident assertions I saw—even fairly recently—that any suggestions of this kind were "misinformation"... "Not sticking to the science". What a year. 2021-03-08 17:21:49 RT @losowsky: I really appreciate this @zeynep piece talking about the facts behind the relative effectiveness of the three major vaccines.… 2021-03-08 17:14:22 @kissane @timbray But it's actually increasing risk to close the schools, though. (Network mixing). I'd be fine if they disinfected during the day. I think hybrid, too, is extra risk to be honest (again because of network mixing). I am not against extra cleaning as long as it isn't done this way. 2021-03-08 17:09:12 To keep people's network from expanding too much, too quickly. US still has relatively high levels of infection. Coming down fast, but it's there. Keep indoor/unmasked encounters limited for now, but vaccinated can feel safer with family/close friends. https://t.co/QNxkqmuBWd 2021-03-08 04:52:44 RT @_waleedshahid: British people are learning about our amazing health care system in the US. 2021-03-08 04:36:30 Much gratitude to everyone who put in so much to this project. (Today was their last daily update). https://t.co/7F0wqXPYoG 2021-03-08 01:42:44 RT @JuliaAngwin: This was an incredible public service. Thank you @alexismadrigal and team! 2021-03-08 00:02:36 @rom Thank you! 2021-03-07 22:49:29 @wanderer_jasnah But yes, the stuff I read in papers in February(ish) of 2020 plus friends/researchers/experts in Hong Kong and Japan are.. well, 90 percent of the most relevant stuff, I think. 2021-03-07 22:47:42 @wanderer_jasnah But I'm kinda dying to go back to thinking about the isomorphism (yes waving hands hard) between this wowze convergent evolution and stuff I know from human behavior/machine learning targeted at optimizing for particular behaviors that throw up surprising convergence. 2021-03-07 22:43:33 @wanderer_jasnah When will this mutate was literally my first thought last January 2020—before learned more about CoV (I was flu-anchored like rest of Western world)—then I went to okay no big deal on variants till Nov/December and then a big WTF with B.1.1.7. (https://t.co/AvninK4PB9) 2021-03-07 22:40:53 @wanderer_jasnah So, the convergent evolution part is super interesting to me, but not because I understand the virology/immunology part (lol, no), but because it's actually super relevant to my original field (machine learning/optimization/at-scale evolution/digital public sphere). 2021-03-07 22:34:05 @wanderer_jasnah I mean, clearly there is a lot detailed scientific work etc. that has happened since, but I mean in terms of setting basics of public policy and settling in for the year... Let me think if something really surprising came out much later? 2021-03-07 22:32:42 @wanderer_jasnah Is there a key thing that truly came out much later? Obviously, the question of "long COVID" wasn't there yet because it couldn't be but in terms of the epidemiology and key broad characteristics for setting the NPIs and public-facing guidance? February/early March 2020. 2021-03-07 22:05:56 @covidpath @AaronRichterman @zchagla See the follow-up? They kept everyone safe/alive *and* had visitation. But it wasn't cheap. https://t.co/nqELXLY0tE 2021-03-07 22:01:04 @PA13Baker 2021-03-07 21:37:52 @AaronRichterman @zchagla It's terrible! The amount of attention to a few mask-burners somewhere versus exactly this—half the US deaths are care-facility residents. Poorly-paid staff with little/no benefits from historically-marginalized communities... But look a party! Or people on a beach somewhere! 2021-03-07 21:33:31 @BregmanPs Yeah. 2021-03-07 21:33:22 @NRafter Yep! 2021-03-07 21:26:10 @zchagla Similar data from other places, too. Too many people with strong opinions on all this are the ones who can work from home... Really missing crucial pieces of the picture. 2021-03-07 21:23:43 But only "islands" can do that, that's the secret sauce. (Yes, that's sarcasm). https://t.co/g7ucMjR8ao 2021-03-07 21:21:29 Read this devastating investigation into the reality of the pandemic in Los Angeles. These are not problems that can be overcome by chanting "wear a mask" & 2021-03-07 17:42:20 @SahilBloom Well maybe name that co-author, Brian Kernighan, whose contributions are nothing to sneeze at. Model of clarity and readability didn’t happen out of nowhere! Brian is still with us, too. 2021-03-07 16:43:20 @kris_lovaas @daijumao No, that makes no sense. 2021-03-07 16:32:59 Anyway. Building and defending trustworthy institutions is the key. That’s the only thing that can get us out of this spiral. 2021-03-07 16:16:58 Eek, yes. Sorry, typo. Asking for transparency and data is fine. We should hold all vaccines to the same, high standard. https://t.co/EV40he1g3a 2021-03-07 15:47:50 Well, right on cue. It’s perfectly fine to ask questions and ask for transparency when there are questions and lack of transparency. It’s not fine to make up stuff for political purposes. Science—civilization—depends on separating the two. https://t.co/iLsUURPoAu 2021-03-07 15:45:31 Also next up: if you ask any questions about Sputnik or Sinovac vaccines, the accusation will be that we’re doing the same: undermining confidence. In reality the transparencies aren’t asymmetric and there *are* questions to be asked. Pushing for equal transparency is good. 2021-03-07 15:41:41 People don’t want to hear this, but Chinese official sources have been doing this, too—pretty much openly. (I don’t mean asking reasonable questions.) A terrible front in information warfare. https://t.co/KwRxhnIoWb 2021-03-07 00:18:55 “It doesn’t really matter if it’s a restaurant, spin class, a gym, a choir practice — if you’re indoors with no masks, low or no ventilation, we know that’s higher risk”. Plus, the risk to people who work there, all day. https://t.co/pWXhbdQ4um 2021-03-06 22:58:29 @timlune @rnoyes Wait what why? 2021-03-06 21:04:21 @markaf1984 @EricTopol I’ve been doing this and it’s really rewarding! And I’ll never not be amazed by vaccines. 2021-03-06 20:55:04 RT @EricTopol: This is the best news of the day. More than 500K vaccines than yesterday, which was a record. Phenomenal progress and likely… 2021-03-06 20:54:03 @Kantrowitz Me too! By a million miles! 2021-03-06 20:50:33 @Kantrowitz I know right 2021-03-06 20:31:56 @can We can do that because there’s no real analysis—just knee-jerk reaction to whoever we hate at the moment. (Tip:multi-country comparisons are useful). 2021-03-06 19:21:49 RT @TheAtlantic: “Today, I wouldn’t read his books to my children,” @michaelharriot writes of Dr. Seuss. “But I also wouldn’t want my child… 2021-03-06 16:36:59 @kjw_chiu @statesdj @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni But more than that... Maybe these things are outside the powers of Laplace's demon. Maybe prediction in the traditional sense is not something we can do here—even with more data and expanded techniques. 2021-03-06 16:18:18 @statesdj @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni Yep. 2021-03-06 16:09:52 RT @nytopinion: "This hyper-focus on hesitancy implicitly blames Black communities for their undervaccination, and it obscures opportunitie… 2021-03-06 16:09:07 @statesdj @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni (I don’t have an answer if that’s not obvious). 2021-03-06 16:07:22 @statesdj @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni Of course. But I think that mattered less in winter 2021 because of the ideological polarization. Fear certainly has an influence but by January 2021, the interpretation of news was highly-fractured. But the drop is fairly uniform. I think there’s a puzzle there given magnitude. 2021-03-06 15:54:09 @statesdj @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni The question in the original article was why did epi models miss the relatively rapid, widespread drop? People all masked up/distanced in fear seems less plausible to me as the main explanatory variable given the magnitude, though I think it does matter somewhat. 2021-03-06 15:34:52 @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni Which is not to say that behavior does not matter! (As I said, that's my bread-and-butter) but it's probably not going to get the analytic bang we seek from it predictively. I suspect we may get an interesting prospective look from detailed mobility data. Not sure we do yet. 2021-03-06 15:31:32 @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni It's probably too tempting to make human behavioral change into a just-so story retrospectively, and probably almost impossible to use it as a predictive variable prospectively in the kind of complex environment we have in a pandemic. 2021-03-06 15:30:10 @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni Two, this "must be behavior by elimination" a wee-bit dangerous. Could it be? Maybe. But it could also partly be things we don't—yet—understand. Did cases drop so precipitously in multiple countries with so many different cultures at the same time all due to behavior? I'm.. wary. https://t.co/mslteOF6Pc 2021-03-06 15:27:47 @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni First, modeling reflexivity (which is what social science folks call the thing being described here: people will respond to what's going on, which will change what's going on) in any way that's truly predictive is not just hard, may well be intractable in such situations. 2021-03-06 15:25:58 @michaelmina_lab @maciekboni While I do like the emphasis "take human behavior into account" in pandemic planning (that's my bread-and-butter! and duh!), I'm a little wary of being able to incorporate it into predictive modeling, though, for two reasons. 2021-03-05 23:44:36 RT @CohoKelly: Vaccine update: - 2.44M new doses (record) - Avg at 2.08 doses per day (record) See more at: https://t.co/7Bip57pPm6 htt… 2021-03-05 20:58:01 @extrashaky @jbarro There is already ongoing trials for mixing vaccines, and it's quite possible that we will all get variant-specific boosters sometime in the future. Taking J& 2021-03-05 20:56:46 @richdavisphd Yeah. Lots of good stuff out on social media but... very confusing for ordinary people. Also lots of terrible advice—sometimes from very authoritative-seeming sources. CDC to the mic! 2021-03-05 20:27:10 @GeorgeShaeffer1 @Valentine721 Actually, I don't think what you just said is true at all, to be honest. I wrote why in my piece above (no paywall). They all protect you even if you get a mild case. They seem to be really good against death/hospitalization. Only J& 2021-03-05 20:25:57 @msmacb Yeah. I can still go on mass media and say indoors—especially if poorly-ventilated—is more dangerous than outdoors and my inbox is full of angry, incredulous people. It's... March 2021. 2021-03-05 20:23:41 The information environment does not, will not, allow a vacuum. Others will step up and provide guidance. Some better, some not so much. An ordinary person cannot/should not be in the business of hoping they pick the right experts. CDC should issue guidelines. They can update. 2021-03-05 20:19:38 Another challenge we face now is J& 2021-03-05 19:11:43 This. The more CDC waits, the less influence they have on how spring will unfold. (And messaging is like fighting exponentials: early framing/influence is crucial—can’t just pivot late and get the same bang). https://t.co/8PSjczOubz 2021-03-05 17:52:54 @TheDailyShame @FergalBowers @IrishTimes @irishexaminer @PressOmb_Irl @ibec_irl @fotoole @GeneKerrigan @WeCanBeZero @ISAGCOVID19 It's amazing we're still discussing this... 2021-03-05 17:52:15 @KevinWGlass Thank you. That's from last year sometime... Had a lot of *practice* for much last year saying the same thing again and again... 2021-03-05 17:01:56 Looking forward to being able to stop saying try to avoid “especially poorly-ventilated indoors” and “talking especially at close range”. 2021-03-05 16:55:10 @georgiaboy2020 https://t.co/H6XXWeKxfb 2021-03-05 16:49:58 Older clip but same problem. Indoors—especially if poorly-ventilated—is the risk. https://t.co/OsDLe9DPmE 2021-03-05 15:33:36 RT @profshanecrotty: I agree! Good news that people infected w/ B1351 (SA variant) make good neutralizing antibodies to that variant and 'r… 2021-03-05 15:27:53 RT @AdamJKucharski: In a few opening sentences, @AnjliRaval summarises so many important aspects of the COVID pandemic. (Full article: http… 2021-03-04 23:27:09 RT @richdavisphd: Re-upping this latest entry in a 2-month-long thread collecting and discussing data that shows (as hoped and expected) va… 2021-03-04 22:52:49 @jbarro If by only person you mean a sizable chorus, sure. 2021-03-04 21:48:12 RT @ianandbike: About time! First I’ve seen of this sort of messaging. @zeynep will approve, I’m sure! 2021-03-04 21:27:29 @WesPegden That yellow looks conceptually like the sharpie line Trump took to the hurricane trajectory. Is that like... from anything official? 2021-03-04 19:02:25 @KevinWGlass @MariaKoklanaris I was confident enough from the epi and other data that we should encourage people to do more outdoors—and not close parks—by the end of March. By June, the beach-shaming was a farce and that it went on and on is shameful. https://t.co/ABfK5b9Be2 2021-03-04 18:57:37 @Rob_Stubbs1 @apsmunro Thank you! 2021-03-04 18:51:13 @jbakcoleman https://t.co/hRXIna40Zj 2021-03-04 17:27:48 @lokmantsui @wanderer_jasnah Yeah seeing it. So sorry. And so terrible. 2021-03-04 16:08:01 @lokmantsui @wanderer_jasnah 2021-03-04 15:36:06 @kbsutt Thank you! 2021-03-04 15:35:31 @AgProcessRnD Yeay! 2021-03-04 15:30:50 RT @stephaniemlee: NEW: So far, COVID-19 vaccines haven't been equitably distributed. Asking for ID is supposed to improve that. But @skba… 2021-03-04 15:29:03 RT @linseymarr: Here's the nuance: a) most masks only partially block aerosols, b) respiratory aerosols are most concentrated close to the… 2021-03-04 14:33:25 @Kddid15 @nicholas_bagley @ScottGottliebMD Thank you! 2021-03-04 03:56:03 @Stephen09522863 @sm_rose @statesdj @linseymarr @MackayIM @kprather88 @GidMK @erinbiba @picardonhealth It’s how I test them, too! And wear masks with spongy nose wire for better seal. 2021-03-04 03:18:02 @kasey721 @NicolleDWallace I told her I would *and* recommended many great folks she can host. 2021-03-04 03:10:22 @dumbfinder_ I think we'll get a vaccine for kids 12-16 this year. 2021-03-04 03:09:01 @Sad_Liberal I don't think we have a clue, to be honest. If I encountered anything authoritative, I'd share it but... things we don't understand. The prevention of mild disease is one set of mechanisms in a very complex system... How does it relate to long Covid? Haven't seen any work. 2021-03-04 03:05:23 @dumbfinder_ They are all much much much less likely after vaccination. The vaccines are great at preventing an astonishing amount of *any* disease with any symptoms. And breakthrough disease among the vaccinated also appears weaker. 2021-03-04 02:54:50 @mrmistmonster And partisans behind the line coming in and doing a lot of heavy-lifting after the front is breached... Something like that? It's hard to find the right metaphor here. But yeah. 2021-03-04 02:49:35 @jkottke Right, they are not sieves. Mental models really matter. 2021-03-04 02:48:39 Anyway, I still think there's *every* reason to take the first US vaccine offered. That's what I've been telling people close to me, and the lengthy, geeky, updated explanation on why is the top post, and the older version with the vaccine shanty is here: https://t.co/aTw9dX6p2i 2021-03-04 02:45:42 People are constantly asking me if they should avoid J& 2021-03-04 02:39:29 IMO we don't have sufficient statistical power to distinguish between the US vaccines for the rare outcomes—severe disease, hospitalizations. They all look VERY good! But timing of trials plus rarity of indicators makes precise differentiating between them lack statistical power. 2021-03-04 02:37:09 So we're doing ourselves a disservice with these—understandable and common—interpretations. A vaccine that's weaker at preventing mild symptomatic disease is not necessarily unable to prevent severe disease—which would be the case if it were like a sea wall that got washed over! https://t.co/r8cL8oHFQa 2021-03-04 02:33:41 It's all a bit geeky, but statistical power is a key concept for interpreting most any trial/experiment—including vaccine trials—plus the immune system isn't something straightforward like a sea wall whose height we are measuring with trials. It's one of the most complex topics! https://t.co/Ci0yssbIey 2021-03-04 02:29:36 This is false, but it is understandable if one's mental model of immunity is like a "sea wall" that gets washed over by a tsunami wave—like the Fukushima plant—and if we don't consider how *statistical power* effects trials. My lengthy post on all that: https://t.co/m2D5sInuoz https://t.co/o7TlTfjci5 2021-03-04 00:21:31 RT @chrislhayes: In NYC you’re already seeing supply start to outstrip demand. Need to keep opening up eligibility then and the hard work o… 2021-03-03 21:23:27 @asociologist Thank you! 2021-03-03 20:12:33 @MatthewDavidH @insight Thank you! 2021-03-03 19:45:06 @BarryShank @BronwenDickey @jack_hamilton Thanks! 2021-03-03 19:26:05 RT @insight: I wrote about how need for statistical power affects vaccine trial endpoints, what that means for "vaccine efficacy"—and why o… 2021-03-03 19:07:54 @rebelcinder @evan_greer Yeah, I don't think it's correct to say "As of right now we don't know if they do anything to prevent you from spreading COVID to others." That's not true. We know a good deal because a lot of data already exists. We are still learning on how much (already looking like a lot). 2021-03-03 17:58:05 RT @linseymarr: Shopping for a portable air cleaner? Here's a guide that's been blessed by an expert in indoor air quality, bioaerosols, an… 2021-03-03 17:07:34 @yayitsrob Thank you! 2021-03-03 16:28:22 @nataliexdean Maybe for once we can get ahead of the very foreseeable data comparison problems? Fingers crossed you get heard! 2021-03-03 16:27:50 RT @nataliexdean: Out today -- my piece in @nature on a topic I feel very strongly about = the need to coordinate and harmonize observation… 2021-03-03 16:27:29 @AbraarKaran @nytimes Congratulations! 2021-03-03 16:27:22 RT @AbraarKaran: Proud to share my first @nytimes piece! I focus on 4 key points: •#BetterMasks esp in high risk settings •Improve venti… 2021-03-03 15:17:27 @sealsniper_urt Read the article! And read the follow up reporting which confirmed pretty much all of it. I cannot type the whole article or the evidence that has confirmed it since in one tweet! Have a good day. 2021-03-03 15:07:11 @sealsniper_urt @alilikewhoa @morninggloria It's been widely reported and confirmed that, indeed, Wuhan authorities hid the extend of the problem from their superiors and central government learned of the extent of the problem till much later—well into January. Then they acted. Which is what I had deduced and wrote. 2021-03-03 15:01:25 @sealsniper_urt @alilikewhoa @morninggloria You didn't read the article! 2021-03-03 14:50:48 @sealsniper_urt @alilikewhoa @morninggloria Actually that's one of my pieces that turned out to be pretty much right, even though it was deducing things from the scraps of evidence! What do you think is wrong with it? 2021-03-03 14:44:25 RT @morninggloria: This whole piece but especially the bit about how we probably could have been safely socializing outdoors this whole ti… 2021-03-03 14:18:24 @BillHanage We have no increased outbreaks at hospitals. Hospitals in the US have been among the safest places even during the surges. 2021-03-03 13:59:16 @RobertGol1203 Thank you! 2021-03-03 13:58:42 @KravitzEl @edyong209 Thank you! Highest compliment. 2021-03-03 03:28:13 RT @CarolynCannu: Today, Philly vaccinated ~1000 ppl in my mom's (huge) apt bldg. Teams went door-to-door to administer shots. Folks sat in… 2021-03-03 03:26:30 Here it is! (Reportedly!) https://t.co/zUGfXfgUy6 2021-03-03 02:34:14 RT @IngridKatzMD: This is extraordinarily delightful! 2021-03-03 02:11:02 @DryHumorDryBeef @allahpundit It’s just gonna be much harder for people like restaurant workers, who depend on tips, to wear a mask without a mandate. 2021-03-03 01:50:49 Everyone else noticing that Dolly moment? The song, the cold shoulder, that hair? I think this is the smartest thing one can hope to read about it. https://t.co/JjGdZ2CISy 2021-03-03 01:32:22 @MarshallReinsd1 Yeah, exactly. Last one to die in a war... 2021-03-02 23:36:44 @BillHanage @charlesgres @Femi_Sorry Yeah. 2021-03-02 23:08:30 RT @Femi_Sorry: The Government's biggest failure in terms of messaging has been the focus on rules rather than risk levels. That's why we… 2021-03-02 21:47:20 @SunnyDfan4eva I hope so. At least until everyone who works there can get vaccinated. 2021-03-02 21:41:44 @booklov78 Not before summer, at the earliest. 2021-03-02 21:34:32 Folks who are fully vaccinated: guidance on how they are safer and what they can do with other vaccinated folk. Outdoors? Please, go do more outdoors. Indoor/public stuff? Be more strict until broader vaccination coverage which is really around the corner. https://t.co/dyihyEmvGR 2021-03-02 21:28:29 @BrianRWasik @ethanjweiss @notdred @medicalpoke Yeah. Just thinking about the restaurant workers, the grocery store clerks... Restaurant workers live by tips so their ability to wear masks will be greatly impacted if the mandate is removed. Poorly ventilated space full of people conversing loudly... March 2021. 2021-03-02 21:24:04 @ethanjweiss @notdred @medicalpoke @BrianRWasik I guess we're going to get a good collection of these gifs? I'm just imagining how we face all the people that will suffer because of our inability to wait.. maybe one month? There are people who work in those restaurants/grocery stores. It's not all "covidiots" who "deserve it." 2021-03-02 21:21:39 Look, we may be avoiding a fourth "surge" because of increasing pace of vaccinations, but *some* unvaccinated people will get infected if indoor restrictions are completely lifted and masks no longer worn indoors. The vaccine supply is about to go way way up. Just.. no. https://t.co/CsSNDJ23Dz 2021-03-02 21:18:03 @medicalpoke @notdred @BrianRWasik Someone sent me this and yeah https://t.co/8LND3x8vko 2021-03-02 21:15:51 @MarcelHarmon1 @BrianRWasik My back of the envelope calculation is, no, it's not baked in at all as a surge. (Assuming that B117 is here, that we would follow Denmark/UK trajectory). But we don't have good genomic surveillance *and* some people will get infected even if not a full-fledged surge. 2021-03-02 21:11:25 @OrwellAcademy @BrianRWasik Yeah that was a key reason I was irked by that messaging. It makes it much harder to convince people to wait if it's a whole other year. (And no reason to think it will be... Not that I'd be against it if that was the grim reality but it's not). 2021-03-02 21:10:29 @notdred @BrianRWasik It's just nuts. I don't get it. Why not talk a lot about all the wonderful things vaccinated people can do more safely now, and how amazing it will be when more are vaccinated soon so we can all relax more rather than this one-sized fits all stuff? How can we screw up MARCH 2021? 2021-03-02 21:01:40 @BrianRWasik Don't know how we're going to face people who might get infected basically about a month before vaccines become available to most everyone. I don't think "sky is falling" type warnings would work on any reluctant population right now, but wait about another month probably would. 2021-03-02 20:57:44 @therealrthorat @apsmunro What example did you have in mind? (I am talking about risk compensation in particular). 2021-03-02 20:20:27 @apsmunro Thank you! 2021-03-02 12:48:22 @CosmicIndiffer1 @Morning_Joe https://t.co/JLosNyDIqF 2021-03-02 12:48:15 @GretngsFrmEarth @atlantic https://t.co/JLosNyDIqF 2021-03-02 12:44:35 @AbbysDad3 https://t.co/ajLw49kzrJ 2021-03-02 12:35:13 Early! https://t.co/ADHVftJdGg 2021-03-02 05:26:06 @AbraarKaran Prescription only. Can’t accidentally make it cheap and convenient. Hope you have insurance, call doc, pay copay... What is the logic here? 2021-03-02 03:30:25 This is amazing. This should happen everywhere in the world. I wish we actively celebrated these moving moments. This isn’t just some routine event. Vaccines are about as close to an earthly miracle as it gets. And we got them so fast for COVID. https://t.co/UU2z28kalJ 2021-03-02 03:02:56 RT @syramadad: “The most important statistic about the vaccines approved for emergency use in the US — Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnso… 2021-03-02 01:31:51 RT @AdamSerwer: Really incredible to compare this with the relative differences in tone about how these two groups are covered. 2021-03-02 01:11:53 @EthanBWinter Thank you! 2021-03-01 23:45:51 @NicolleDWallace I would be happy to, but I can also recommend many people who would be excellent. There are many of experts who can explain why poorly-ventilated indoors events (they were indoors *and* unmasked!) are high risk, and what we know and don’t know of vaccines. Sending you DM. 2021-03-01 23:04:08 Anyway, I hope that the zillion people pinging me have misunderstood the claims made on @NicolleDWallace's show. I'll check the transcript later. The cluster around the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation included multi-day indoor events, including the day of the Rose Garden ceremony. 2021-03-01 23:00:29 I respect that there are some things where there is legitimate disagreement. But then there are other things where basic facts are not in dispute. The White House cluster had a huge and well-documented indoor component over many days. @NicolleDWallace https://t.co/uP7a0taXbW 2021-03-01 22:57:24 If you see my thread above, you see scientists trying, desperately trying to correct her on basic stuff, to no avail. No, "vaccine resistance" isn't "akin to antibiotic resistance". No, that's not how vaccine efficacy works. I respect her past work a lot, but... this isn't right. 2021-03-01 22:49:37 I've never gotten her to correct anything (and I'm far from the only person to have tried) so I'm not hopeful here but... this has been a troubling. With all due respect to her past great work, there isn't a great pattern here. https://t.co/KTQSNGG4YV 2021-03-01 22:47:21 Tons of people are pinging me about it, so here goes. Whatever @Laurie_Garrett has just claimed on TV, there was a huge indoor component to the White House event that ended up being a cluster. We have reports *and* pictures so not hard to get the facts straight. @NicolleDWallace https://t.co/oPLCFBvFQn https://t.co/va8ACEgGCw 2021-03-01 21:03:47 RT @kottke: Learning from the Five Pandemic Mistakes We Keep Making. "The pandemic has given us an unwelcome societal stress test, revealin… 2021-03-01 17:59:53 RT @YearCovid: 28 February 2020 Cass Sunstein: The Cognitive Bias That Makes Us Panic About Coronavirus "No one can specify the magnitude… 2021-03-01 17:42:05 RT @ShiraOvide: A perfect encapsulation of a system gone wrong from @Kellen_Browning: A 78-year-old woman trying to land a vaccine appoin… 2021-03-01 16:42:56 Painful account to follow, but important to learn from what actually happened. https://t.co/7epBl6tGa1 2021-03-01 05:12:29 RT @rebeccaballhaus: “The desire to exercise personal control ... is likely why we’ve continued to emphasize scrubbing & 2021-03-01 04:19:44 @halvorz @MWStory Yeah. Pretty much. 2021-03-01 04:18:33 @IlyaFinkelstein Thank you! 2021-03-01 03:53:29 RT @d_spiegel: For deaths and admissions, big gap opening up now between over and under 65s. For over 75s, deaths each day have been essen… 2021-03-01 03:21:09 RT @jamespomfret: Breaking: In scenes not seen for mths after #China #NSL crackdown, students at a primary school outside the court where 4… 2021-03-01 02:57:25 @joannelipman @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-03-01 01:12:18 @ridgecrest_t @LeahLitman They're also testing a booster. A bit tricky there but regardless... 100% prevention of hospitalization and death is the key. 2021-03-01 01:03:41 @brianstelter @JeffreyGoldberg Thank you! 2021-03-01 00:58:15 @LeahLitman The mRNA ones come with a booster, and J& 2021-03-01 00:56:07 @LeahLitman The "more effective" numbers pertain to breakthrough illness, even if mild, not preventing death or hospitalizations (for that, all: 100% effective). But that' not all. J& 2021-02-28 23:54:53 @justjoshinyou13 Yeah. "There is no evidence that" almost never works out. It means one thing as a causal statement in academese, and a completely different thing in ordinary language. (May I note that ordinary language is more Bayesian for this?) 2021-02-28 23:47:12 @eointhedoherty I'd have been happier, too, tbh. 2021-02-28 23:45:48 @jbakcoleman @Joey__Schafer @CT_Bergstrom https://t.co/VZfw2rAwrz 2021-02-28 23:44:46 @jbakcoleman @Joey__Schafer @CT_Bergstrom I hadn't thought about whether that tweet had it but how to evoke it! Artist's interpretation, if you will. 2021-02-28 23:15:22 @joelw_762 Thank you for the kind words. 2021-02-28 17:58:23 @kyrah Least, probably. 2021-02-28 17:34:52 RT @mollyhc: "I’ve been tracking every report I can find for the past year, and have yet to find a confirmed super-spreading event that occ… 2021-02-28 17:13:25 @nathanjurgenson Hah. It did seem to fill a need. (It got a huge audience that I know surprised SA, too. They just put it up without much editing etc. as an okay if that's what you wanna write... piece). 2021-02-28 17:07:30 @KevinLoker Yeah not counting on algorithms when one writes an almost 7k word article and drop it on a Friday. Break every rule, see what happens. 2021-02-28 17:05:32 @dmzande Always happy to hear when my work is useful. 2021-02-28 17:05:15 @JeffSChase Glad to hear it was useful! 2021-02-28 16:57:01 @jackowayed Glad to hear that! And yes, exactly right and thank you for treating your employees humanely, as well. Wish more did that! 2021-02-28 16:55:41 @3flat9 @jonathanchait Thank you. Though I don't do science communication. That's an entirely different skill set. There are people who do that well, but that's not what I do or what I do well. :-D 2021-02-28 16:43:38 We often get shoehorned into inappropriate binaries. Optimist or pessimist? (I'll admit being an optimist personality-wise but my analytical interests are usually the opposite: I'm on the lookout for what can go wrong). The interesting questions we face don't fit into binaries. 2021-02-28 16:40:04 It was one year ago yesterday I published an article urging people to get ready, trying to explain flattening the curve, etc. because I was so frustrated with lack of advice on how and why to prepare. So I'm advocating for getting ready for transitions—not optimism or pessimism. https://t.co/eBgFmrKknq 2021-02-28 16:08:45 @janzilinsky Aaaw, thank you. 2021-02-28 15:49:10 RT @AbraarKaran: This new piece by @zeynep is phenomenal— complex, nuanced, thought out, deeply discerning of the multiple layers at play h… 2021-02-28 15:41:14 @__apf__ @EricaJoy Yeah, it's the supply now in most places. There isn't enough vaccine—yet. Might change in the next few weeks. 2021-02-28 14:49:35 @Chanders (Also I wrote an article about modeling and how it works and how it does not very early on: https://t.co/Zgq0oR6S4a) 2021-02-28 14:48:37 @Chanders Thank you! 2021-02-28 04:35:06 @andreamatranga @KhoaVuUmn https://t.co/MA9f7ISs0y 2021-02-28 04:33:43 @maxbachmunder Thank you! 2021-02-28 04:10:06 @katecrawford 2021-02-28 04:02:23 @albertlyu December 31st? 2019? Hah. I thought Taiwan screening started next day. 2021-02-28 04:01:14 @chrislhayes May not happen exactly by predicted week. Still, appears that a big supply ramp up headed this way. https://t.co/kGMG41tPon 2021-02-28 03:56:26 @CutenessSam Thank you! 2021-02-28 03:46:48 @MarissaGB42 So happy to hear it was useful to you! 2021-02-28 03:40:38 I’d been following. I’d ordered supplies, masks, first week of January. But that was abundance of caution. When Wuhan shut down? Yep. Turning point. Started front loading all my medical visits, canceling travel, warning social networks as best I could, etc. 2021-02-28 03:36:25 @MuseZack @chrislhayes Soon probably. First half of March? Wouldn’t bet against next week. Big Pfizer ramp up reported so if that hold up, whenever that hits the chain along with initial J& 2021-02-28 03:33:59 @PFBSuperDave @felixsalmon Yes I wrote an article on the topic. So I try read all the papers on this. I read the primary paper, not the Economist summary of it though. (Came out same day my article came out iirc correctly). 2021-02-28 03:27:42 @chrislhayes That’s how it’s going to be from here on if the reported supply numbers hold. This may well be our floor per day for March. 2021-02-28 03:24:58 @briallenhopper 2021-02-28 03:23:34 RT @dansolomon: this piece by @zeynep about the messaging failures around covid—including many we are repeating now!—is great, and makes me… 2021-02-28 03:22:46 When they shut down Wuhan. That was #TheMoment for me. No way would the Chinese government do that if they didn’t have a big problem. And by then, if they did, we would too, eventually. https://t.co/VIpP9uFRxJ 2021-02-28 03:12:25 @pete_wells Yeah. Not exclusive to this problem. 2021-02-27 23:28:57 @AsifDoja Thank you! 2021-02-27 23:20:25 @greenbean99999 @mims Indoor component was huge. That it wasn’t represented as such was the failure. 2021-02-27 23:14:14 @felixsalmon So we do know (and have known for a while) what the distribution looks like under a variety of conditions. (Japan had overdispersion nailed by February. SARS, too, was overdispersed). It's a crucial part of the triad needed to control it: presymptomatic, airborne, overdispersed. 2021-02-27 23:10:41 @felixsalmon There's been more research since but the numbers from this earlier article of mine pretty much hold. (The twist is the number isn't fixed because if you shut down the poorly-ventilated indoor events, the proportions change). https://t.co/59YgSSHdEZ 2021-02-27 23:08:28 @WesPegden That's much later. On February 27, 2020―when there was little advise out there on how and why to prepare and what this was going to mean (which was already obvious but not communicated)—"don't panic, the CFR is around 2% but it's mostly the elderly" is just not the right message. 2021-02-27 22:33:23 @eric_black3 Except a 2% fatality rate *is* a huge threat to everything—and it would have been higher if we hadn’t taken drastic measures. That would have been... 6 million just for the US alone. 2021-02-27 22:24:56 One year ago today. I’m not blaming him—it is true, that was the overwhelming message. We can and should stop being behind transitions and start acting/adjusting ahead of or with them. Matters for the endgame, too. https://t.co/vb89G3p8RA 2021-02-27 21:59:05 @Lafalot78 Glad to hear my work has been useful to you! 2021-02-27 21:43:58 @heyitsnoah Thank you! 2021-02-27 20:40:27 RT @trishgreenhalgh: The incredible @zeynep takes stock of a year of Covid-19. This woman, both an academic and a leading journalist, has a… 2021-02-27 19:36:22 @Bob_Wachter @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-02-27 19:36:18 RT @Bob_Wachter: This piece on messaging mistakes we make with Covid by @zeynep Tufekci @TheAtlantic hits the trifecta: smart, useful, and… 2021-02-27 18:53:23 @DreJoanneLiu @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-02-27 18:53:13 RT @DreJoanneLiu: 5 Pandemic mistakes we keep repeating @TheAtlantic : Risk Compensation, Rules in Place of Mechanisms and Intuitions, Scol… 2021-02-27 18:39:23 @ianandbike Heh, yeah. Go for a walk! Get some fresh air and exercise! The weather seems good right now, no? 2021-02-27 18:26:36 Is this all still relevant? Yes. London News today: "Crowds flock to parks and beaches despite Covid-19 warning from top scientists." Look at the pics! (Also UK had a "eat out to help out" plan subsidizing INDOOR dining—no take-out allowed—they may reportedly bring back soon). https://t.co/vWAtAUhctE 2021-02-27 18:14:02 @thrasherxy Thank you! Will now look this stuff up, and I'd be happy to preorder your book as soon as it drops. 2021-02-27 18:10:25 @StevenZap @ashishkjha @lizditz Thank you! 2021-02-27 18:10:02 @AndreBeltempo @Sociopathblog @linseymarr Yeah this is from last March! https://t.co/vGF5UZdpPn https://t.co/Zo2djtnsDv 2021-02-27 17:46:10 Vaccines will/should allow expanded private behaviors for the vaccinated and we should be more chill and encouraging of outdoors is not only compatible with, is supportive of the idea that we should be MORE *on guard* indoors while we vaccinate and outrun the variants spreading. https://t.co/HK677CbBZj 2021-02-27 17:42:48 I want to put this out here (because the article is long and I don't expect everyone to read it). I would not relax any indoor rules right now—if anything, I think they can be more strict (with support for those who have to work indoors/remain closed). https://t.co/iHuER8TGGl 2021-02-27 17:39:47 @cschneider8224 Thank you! 2021-02-27 17:38:39 @RRcandid @ashishkjha So my wish is for the CDC to tell us: guidelines/risk comparisons for: private behavior among vaccinated people and private behavior for vaccinated people around unvaccinated people *and* distinguish outdoor/indoor rules. Public NPIs for indoor? I'd make them *more* strict now. 2021-02-27 17:36:39 @RRcandid @ashishkjha From what we already know, I don't think it's reasonable to tell vaccinated people that they must wait till herd immunity until they can change some private behaviors—if you think that's not ever stated, I have many examples to the contrary from very high-profile people/outlets. 2021-02-27 17:35:12 @RRcandid @ashishkjha I don't have an objection to the way you phrase it except for this: we should communicate the sensible risk calculations, distinguishing private behavior/risk from public NPIs (which I think should stay strict for indoors at least for another month). 2021-02-27 17:32:57 It's 2021—and lawmakers are still trying to ban needle-exchanges.This is why we must learn from the mistakes of past & 2021-02-27 17:27:57 @trishgreenhalgh Thank you, Trisha! 2021-02-27 17:24:37 RT @calebwatney: Really good "lessons learned" piece from @zeynep. I think point #2 here is particularly actionable. Public health author… 2021-02-27 17:22:29 @ashishkjha Also thinking about it... It was long enough so I was looking for thing to cut, but look at the way we've made the vaccine appointment process tilt so heavily towards the better-off & 2021-02-27 17:21:13 @gregggonsalves @peterstaley @LaurenMPeace @mtnstspotlight lemme read 2021-02-27 17:20:00 @gregggonsalves Oh, wow. So terrible. Still this mindset. AAARGH. 2021-02-27 03:42:37 @MoriartyLab Yes, exactly. I try to hear what’s being said—I publish, got NSF grants, read papers all day, do peer review etc. so quiet familiar with it all—and also pay attention to what’s being heard. Need a mental model of both sides of the process to get where the disconnect happens. 2021-02-27 03:24:35 @hooleil Thank you for the kind words. 2021-02-27 03:24:06 @StephenFleming 2021-02-27 02:45:42 RT @manneharris: Yes to this great summary of fundamentals we keep missing by @zeynep https://t.co/o9ruaOeBlD 2021-02-27 02:25:51 @BrentCa24718741 @rachbarnhart Thank you! 2021-02-27 02:16:51 @cjk_tn @rachbarnhart Heh. Thank you! 2021-02-27 01:59:23 @Matt_Schulman1 Thank you! 2021-02-27 01:03:48 @JudithNowak @michaelmina_lab @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-02-27 01:03:21 @manneharris Thank you! 2021-02-27 01:03:08 RT @anandkadkol: Thought-provoking, eye-opening piece by @zeynep “Individual responsibility certainly had a large role to play in fighting… 2021-02-27 00:12:56 RT @CathyReisenwitz: "By disproportionately focusing on individual choices, not only did we hide the real problem, but we failed to do more… 2021-02-26 23:47:01 @MeghnaWBUR @OnPointRadio Thank you, Meghna! Always a pleasure. 2021-02-26 23:45:46 @PerkovichG @harries_matthew 2021-02-26 23:32:37 @MoriartyLab Thank you! 2021-02-26 23:22:02 @michaelmina_lab @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-02-26 22:32:18 @PPwonk @PaulSaxMD Thank you! Some of this has played out in fairly similar ways in Canada and Europe, too. Not saying Trump wasn't a problem, but there is a broader problem for sure. 2021-02-26 22:31:03 @harries_matthew Thank you! That is a very kind compliment! 2021-02-26 22:25:30 @asosin Thank you! 2021-02-26 22:22:17 @AbraarKaran (Also yeah it's a long piece... But all these things interact with each other.) 2021-02-26 22:11:39 @AbraarKaran Thank *you* for all that you've done! 2021-02-26 21:55:09 @AbraarKaran Thank you! 2021-02-26 21:48:34 @jbouie @chrislhayes Yeah it's kind of sad and pathetic, if it weren't also tragic and terrible—oh wait that's how it usually happens. No charisma/feel for what he's playing for. 2021-02-26 21:46:42 RT @zeynep: Dr. Fauci, today: “It’s backed by common sense. If you have two vaccinated people and they want to get together.. You can get s… 2021-02-26 21:30:24 @BillFoto3 Thank you! I thought it was a great question. 2021-02-26 21:25:12 Presymptomatic transmission & 2021-02-26 20:59:58 RT @rachbarnhart: .@zeynep crammed so much into this article about our absolutely crappy pandemic response. Lack of harm reduction, inabil… 2021-02-26 20:02:43 @TomVargheseJr @TimLaheyMD @PaulSaxMD Can't rely on people to find the right expert on social media, decide to trust them, convince others around them, feel comfortable and confident, and start doing their own risk assessment without some signposts and authoritative guidance. 2021-02-26 18:09:14 @LauraLMagnuson Thank you! 2021-02-26 17:41:12 You know the saying: how generals are always fighting the last war? That's not fate. We *can* put the last war to good use by learning from it. It's especially important to realize that things can fail because of structure and incentives. Good intentions are great—but not enough. 2021-02-26 17:34:33 @phelanjj2 check now? SORRY. Fingers don't listen to brain, I guess. 2021-02-26 17:34:10 It's a lengthy piece with a lot of analyses so I'm experimenting with an open thread about it in my newsletter where I can respond longer and have back-and-forth. (No paywall and it's open to everyone). I look forward to comments, questions and objections! https://t.co/CstCptq0Dd 2021-02-26 17:32:32 @phelanjj2 wait what? lemme fix 2021-02-26 17:23:31 @JInterlandi Congratulations all around! 2021-02-26 17:22:00 The pandemic is an unwelcome, tragic societal stress test. We should learn from it and work to fix the cracks that were revealed especially since the lessons apply broadly. New piece analyzing five key pitfalls that hampered us—and how to move forward. https://t.co/sIzP9hYvUs https://t.co/0Rt4xPjAqZ 2021-02-26 16:24:22 @MartinSchapiro_ ¡Muchas gracias! 2021-02-26 16:16:30 More great news. "Real-world evidence for a high level of protection against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection after a single dose of BNT162b2 [Pfizer/BioNTech] vaccine, at a time of predominant transmission of the UK COVID-19 variant of concern 202012/01". https://t.co/VRAWBoJw0y 2021-02-26 16:10:22 The point here is that, yes, things will get much better for many—and sooner than we seem to have internalized—but there will also be very real but different challenges, too, and will play out under a very different political and epidemiological climate. https://t.co/fdUPZvN9Xt 2021-02-26 15:05:03 I mean, alternatively we can repeat February of 2020? Wait till problems do hit us with their full-force, when they are much harder to address as opposed to timely, early action and planning? Total fingers crossed we won't of course, but these things happen if we act, not wait. 2021-02-26 15:02:59 Pfizer expects to *double* it's weekly US production and deliver 120 million doses just in the next 6 weeks. We have 600 million mRNA doses scheduled by end of July. J& 2021-02-26 14:44:28 There are many categories of problems where informed and thoughtful anticipatory action is crucial, and we've been bad at that. Just check what many people (media/social media/authorities) were saying in February of 2020. The same thing can play out for the end phase as well. 2021-02-26 14:40:45 Yes, and. One real problem: We will soon transition into a *different* set of problems. Given how slow we were to transition into pandemic thinking, it's possible we'll be too slow to start addressing them—stuck arguing over things no longer as relevant. https://t.co/Mn3iUBMeyb 2021-02-26 14:21:35 @devisridhar I wrote an article earlier in the pandemic urging people to interpret models with a time and action-focused lens, rather than predictions: i.e. what we can do now to chose our branch. Don't disagree we did treat them as predictions, and many weren't great. https://t.co/Zgq0oR6S4a https://t.co/GILq0gSGV3 2021-02-26 14:17:38 @devisridhar Yes but. That's not totally fair to modeling. Not taking time into account in models is not a problem with modeling, it's a problem of *those* models that don't. Here's one specifically about value of time in interventions—concludes buying time is key. https://t.co/1K7jSaeqWg 2021-02-26 13:20:04 @jljcolorado 2021-02-26 05:37:18 @jbakcoleman missing 2021-02-26 04:18:24 @Ronke1127 We have tons more supply, like tons and tons more. And the speed of distribution problems have been tackled for the moment. (Though I still hate the way we are doing the appointments etc. and we should be going more to neighborhoods and workplaces). 2021-02-26 04:15:08 That's not saying everything just ends then. Pandemics don't end with a bang—they can whimper on even long after herd immunity, too, including big local outbreaks—and the world is certainly not just the United States. Still. Those are game-changing numbers and a pace for the US. 2021-02-26 04:11:50 If 50% of 65+ folks have at least one shot—and most of it last month? (50 million had at least one shot. It's mostly elderly plus health-care workers. US has about 50 million people over 65). Barring something really unexpected, things should look very different in one month. https://t.co/dVyLNogiEp 2021-02-26 04:03:50 @alexismadrigal Last time I was in SF, I was warned not to do things that I have done without that much care all around the world in places the travel books warn you against. The level of restrictions and don'ts and "yeah that's the way it is" was.. incredible. Sorry about the window hassle. 2021-02-26 04:00:39 @girlfreddy Does this sound anything like a question I asked or something I haven't figured out, without the extra help, after 10+ years on this platform and hundreds of thousands of followers? Never mind. 2021-02-26 03:59:17 @BillHanage @protienking Also asking for better editorial judgment so that the public is better informed isn't "stifling". WTH? 2021-02-26 03:54:56 @joshuajfriedman @TwitterSupport Yep, that's the question. 2021-02-26 03:50:45 @joshuajfriedman @TwitterSupport No. See the conversationS one has muted the way one can see accountS one has muted. 2021-02-26 03:47:23 Folks, this doesn't answer either question whatsoever, and of course I looked first. https://t.co/SkvfHrrTWY 2021-02-26 03:46:34 @joshuajfriedman @TwitterSupport That is not at all clarifying. 2021-02-26 03:43:58 The answer are now coming in for almost every possible combination, and there's not documentation I could find, yet. What say you, @TwitterSupport if you check these things? 2021-02-26 03:35:56 5 minutes in, I've had every different kind of reply. Corollary question: where does one see the conversations one has muted—the way one can see accounts one has muted? 2021-02-26 03:27:30 Question. If I mute a thread on Twitter, it mutes from that point on, right? If I mute people arguing in response to a tweet in my thread, does it mute *all* the responses to my thread from the first tweet on? (Say it ain't so). Or just them, from that point on? As expected? 2021-02-26 01:27:39 @BobBrentTO @nytimes @jkwan_md @DFisman @KashPrime @SharkawyMD 2021-02-25 22:14:46 RT @youyanggu: Thu Feb 25 Vaccination Update - Two main takeaways from this past week: 1) There were fewer new vaccinations than a month a… 2021-02-25 20:25:20 @LeavittAlone 2021-02-25 20:05:36 RT @binney_z: Allowing 30% outdoors and 25% indoors is *absurd* given what we know about the relative risks of indoor vs. outdoor transmiss… 2021-02-25 19:27:16 @notdred I was doing the back-of-the-envelope calculation last night—Denmark for B.1.1.7. doubling time, our vaccination rate, mobility data from when surges end, etc. and had been wishing somebody would model it properly—because it looks like we'd outrun it. Forgot the magic 6-foot rule! 2021-02-25 17:51:06 @kirkpams I'm sorry. I started writing long-form pieces on the pandemic exactly to help people stop feeling paranoid, and start feeling like yeah, we should start acting like a novel pathogen *is* stalking us. 2021-02-25 17:49:51 @nataliexdean @AaronRichterman Yes, all noted. We're kind of getting away with these partly because the results are as strong as they are and the differences seem to converge fairly well (like with the centrally versus PCR-confirmed). But we'd be in trouble if it were more borderline, wider discrepancies... 2021-02-25 17:40:34 @AaronRichterman @nataliexdean Yeah. Cases are few enough here that I think not a big deal, but definitely real value if we had better standardization of definitions and more non-aggregated data with its time distribution to better understand a few anomalies like this. 2021-02-25 17:35:42 @nataliexdean In Pfizer trial, the one "severe" case was SpO2 of 93%—she got no medical intervention. Same definition seems to apply here 2021-02-25 17:26:22 Here's a NYC public health official pleading against "pathogen porn"—big media story gets published without letting the scientific community have even one day to digest/respond to a preprint. Happened too many times throughout last year to great harm. https://t.co/qWwHOQlNBk 2021-02-25 17:11:00 @m_soond No dispute of *some* circulation in Europe (and US) starting around *December*, as we know the spread in China started in November. But anything earlier is unsupported and it's not a conspiracy. The evidence isn't there no matter how much you fool yourself! Have a good day & 2021-02-25 17:01:40 RT @JenniferNuzzo: I completely agree. Our first communication should be with public health officials who are responsible for protecting li… 2021-02-25 16:51:30 @m_soond My bias is doing more than two minutes of research and conflating highlights with proof. There's a reason scientific community decided those speculative papers did not hold. Feel free to keep misinforming yourself. Not gonna do more of your work but here: https://t.co/knD3FTy3W9 2021-02-25 16:45:22 @m_soond Speculative and weak. A few peer-reviewed is not the same as "established". Many, many scientists have already pointed out in many other places why those papers specifically do not establish their point (because of the methods/technologies they used). 2021-02-25 16:42:20 @m_soond Nope. The suggestive, speculative evidence does not support that claim. 2021-02-25 16:34:20 @KoenSwinkels @VPrasadMDMPH Meh. No reason to believe this false sense of security claim for masks. All evidence we have on masks and other things points the other way. And with vaccines, there is nothing "false" about the sense of security they provide because they do provide an enormous and real benefit. 2021-02-25 16:25:13 @kaizhiw Oh wow. "No evidence." Yikes. 2021-02-25 16:22:16 RT @DrLeanaWen: Really good news. Deaths from nursing homes are now far declining sharply. This shows the extraordinary benefit of the #cov… 2021-02-25 16:21:14 @DFisman @jkwan_md Chinese scientists were telling us this at end of January, and yeah, Diamond Princess data sealed it. I had no problem "getting transmission without symptoms is happening" (hence need universal source-control) past fact-checkers by March because there were *so many* sources... 2021-02-25 16:18:32 RT @DFisman: Reupping. Yes, we knew about asymptomatic and presymptomatic infectivity with a high degree of certainty from the diamond pri… 2021-02-25 16:11:23 @WhitneyEpi The refresh-website-all-day-good-luck-to-you method of apportioning appointments is terrible! What we needed is a single point sign-up once, and call back to people via phone/text/email so we catch them *plus* outreach and workplace/neighborhood vaccinations. 2021-02-25 16:07:06 @stevanearly Heh, thank you, though I hope I'm not always predicting doom—stopped clocks not that useful. 2021-02-25 16:00:56 @PPEtoheros @DavidLKeating @larmbrust @linseymarr @AbraarKaran @j_g_allen @WillPlut @RanuDhillon @sri_srikrishna @KatherinePasem1 @ashishkjha @MonicaGandhi9 @BhadeliaMD @jeremyphoward Utter and complete nonsense is all I can politely say here. 2021-02-25 15:40:36 The full thread from one year ago, today. (This was the turning point for me: I decided I had to start writing on the pandemic myself because I couldn't *find* articles by others to share with people to explain these basic points. If they existed, I'd never have bothered). https://t.co/eyMA4PqPA6 2021-02-25 15:19:25 One year ago, today. https://t.co/XYrB2any7m 2021-02-25 05:39:53 @BogochIsaac It’s great! So fast. 2021-02-25 05:39:38 RT @BogochIsaac: Moderna is now testing an updated vaccine designed for the variant of concern first discovered in South Africa (B.1.351).… 2021-02-25 05:12:37 @PolkAwards @edyong209 Yeay! 2021-02-25 05:12:12 RT @PolkAwards: Polk Award for Science Reporting: Ed Yong of the Atlantic for his clear and insightful analysis of the spread of Covid and… 2021-02-25 04:46:17 RT @PolkAwards: Polk Award for Public Service: Helen Branswell of STAT for relentlessly covering all aspects of the pandemic through works… 2021-02-25 04:45:51 @PolkAwards @HelenBranswell So well deserved! Congratulations, Helen. 2021-02-25 04:05:31 RT @BillHanage: I think "scariant" deserves wider usage, even if it has just taken me three attempts to get autocorrect to allow me to writ… 2021-02-25 04:04:06 @NgaThanNYC We’re not even getting a preprint! A heavily-scrutinized preprint is fine imo. 2021-02-25 03:58:55 @melanied333 @allophillia Yeah I’m sorry. Examples are too many, unfortunately 2021-02-25 03:54:13 What’s the hurry? I am constantly fielding inquiries from people who are losing hope—I mean this, losing hope and suffering greatly—after reading such stories. Is it justified? Who knows without a paper? Just put the draft paper somewhere and let a couple of days pass. https://t.co/8DRWTfugdS 2021-02-25 03:48:18 It’s not about formal peer review per se. It’s just that many eyes are always better than a few, even if those few are excellent because they’re still a few, and a bit of time is better than rushing unless there’s something truly urgent that can’t wait another day or two. 2021-02-25 03:46:09 This is really important. Stuff getting publicized *without a paper* and without sufficient time for many scientists to look at, digest, comment and contextualize can lead to terrible outcomes—needlessly scaring people. We saw that happen with widely misreported studies before. https://t.co/9FPJzkrOjO 2021-02-24 21:47:53 “Mask use, temperature checks, and symptom screenings were required on entry 2021-02-24 19:59:05 @ryan__donovan Thank you! 2021-02-24 19:57:34 RT @ecapobianco: Congratulations to @HelenBranswell and @edyong209 for the recognition of their outstanding coverage of the #Covid19 pandem… 2021-02-24 16:43:52 @bgurley @ezraklein Thank you! 2021-02-24 15:17:09 @ClimateDuncan Thank you. I realize it's a function of time & 2021-02-24 15:14:28 @WillOremus @davegillis @mtaibbi The speed and strength with which things flip from "prescient" to "obvious" in a blink, and then how most everyone forgets and denies the before, is probably my strongest pandemic conclusion and surprise. I knew it happened, of course, but wow... So dunno. 2021-02-24 14:35:34 @Parisire @RidleyDM @Brian_Orak @chrislhayes Do you have a link to the AP story? 2021-02-24 14:21:50 @GovHowardDean Compare the numbers to the placebo group. (Yes confidence intervals are large for low-frequency in both arms events). Also I didn't put in the vaccine efficacy numbers which are statistically stronger and that's why we chose those endpoints. It's good & 2021-02-24 14:12:47 Sorry, *seven* medical interventions in placebo group, not 14. Looked at the wrong column. But the vaccinated group number is correct: ZERO. Zero deaths, zero hospitalizations, zero medical interventions after 28 days after one dose of this easy-to-store vaccine. 2021-02-24 14:08:45 @GovHowardDean A few people getting mild COVID—essentially a cold—even after vaccination is to be expected—we do not have a single vaccine that doesn't occasionally suffer from breakthrough cases. However, when we can reduce the disease burden globally to another cold, the pandemic is over. 2021-02-24 14:02:15 @aRahasya It's randomized and double-blind. They couldn't have cherry-picked because nobody knew who was getting what! That's the beauty and the magic of these trials. 2021-02-24 14:01:19 Yes. I have a few other pieces I'm wrapping this morning, but the efficacy numbers, while not irrelevant, aren't the most important number and are often misunderstood. Will explain longer soon. Look at disease burden, not just practical trial endpoints. https://t.co/zfkKzlFOyi 2021-02-24 13:58:54 Given the ease of use and storage, and these impressive results, our priority now as a world should be to figure out how to scale up J& 2021-02-24 13:51:57 @JeffreyGoldberg @nxthompson Reeling in the young, I see. 2021-02-24 13:50:17 J& 2021-02-24 12:53:42 @juliaoftoronto @hildabast Hah! Well. *blush* But thank you for the kind words. And yes, great fan of Hilda's nuanced, unflinching work. 2021-02-24 04:32:04 @onehandman Meh. Yeah sorry. You should be allowed to sit in the open stands. 2021-02-24 04:19:23 @laseptiemewilay I read the papers. They identified transmission in restaurants and workplaces, not outdoors. 2021-02-24 04:06:37 @nswan Exactly 2021-02-24 04:03:59 RT @hvcco: Your threat model is not my threat model, hospital edition https://t.co/YHvZGCkWcs 2021-02-24 03:54:58 @frognal Someone should! 2021-02-24 03:54:03 Pademelons? Fake news. They don’t look alike. I’m, ah, not gonna be rational about this. No. No. https://t.co/OywGuhae6q 2021-02-24 03:47:18 @frognal You show up and argue, then! 2021-02-24 03:39:57 @laborboy1 Yeah. I’m sorry. 2021-02-24 03:39:06 @benthompson People aren’t getting this. It’s not an inferior podcast. https://t.co/qD4EazQSoE 2021-02-24 03:36:48 @Kddid15 @incompetusrex @OrinKerr @TheAtlantic @edyong209 2021-02-24 03:34:22 RT @grace_panetta: “But come on, let’s see the preprint before getting this scared” is great advice for all of us about many things 2021-02-24 03:31:11 @chrislhayes I am not at all against timely panic if warranted! Not at all. But come on, let’s see the preprint before getting this scared. So far, no variant has knocked out all the vaccines.* (We have uncertainty over AZ and one variant—but it’s uncertainty. Tiny sample, CI crossing zero). 2021-02-24 03:28:13 @chrislhayes On the one hand, yes yes of course, let’s vaccinate as fast as possible globally. Best protection. OTOH there isn’t an endless fitness landscape here. Look at what happened in SA. We had one that did seem to have immune escape: it went way up and down even without any vaccines. 2021-02-24 03:25:05 @chrislhayes The way these things get reported—highlighting drops in neutralizing antibodies which don’t really correspond to similar drops in vaccine effectiveness—has been truly confusing. I do not see a doom scenario from just this article, just one more reason to keep vaccinating fast. 2021-02-24 03:22:20 @chrislhayes I found this to be premature. First, where is the paper? Second, let’s accept it’s more transmissible. They’re reporting it’s already dominant. So that would explain what *already* happened in CA. Key question is vaccines. It doesn’t sound like a big threat. (Where’s the paper?) 2021-02-24 03:09:52 @MollyJongFast Nothing to see here—yet. Irresponsible headline. Just more reason to vaccinate as fast as we can. 2021-02-24 01:44:37 RT @BallouxFrancois: This article is irresponsible nonsense. The number of inaccuracies and errors are staggering, and the language utterly… 2021-02-23 23:26:22 @wendyg Lots of suspected events with an indoor component. However, even after a year, there is not a single outdoor-only superspreader event that I've been able to track down and confirm, and, in truth, also fairly few confirmed transmission events (though harder to track so data bias). 2021-02-23 23:22:37 @MatthewDavidH @JohnSkylar You cannot make that conclusion from 51 cases though, although of course, lack of indoor gathering and masks would make a difference. 2021-02-23 23:19:52 @MattNoahSmith Which is what I’m reconsidering! 2021-02-23 18:10:02 @NaomiAKlein ahahahaa yeah it's that time of the year again. Sorry! 2021-02-23 16:28:53 @_stah @1momofcb @NastyOldWomyn Exactly, thank you. I think we needed three things acknowledged (like Japan did) early on in order to have the right mitigations in place in time: presymptomatic transmission, key role of aerosol spread and overdispersion (all three related to some degree). All three resisted. 2021-02-23 16:12:39 @RonWechsler @wrightwb Right. That's the challenge. But there are a large number of outdoor-only activities, too and have been for the past year. We should have more than a few examples, at least, at this point. 2021-02-23 16:08:01 @wrightwb https://t.co/4geo3w2HRe https://t.co/7UIZMwVVYw 2021-02-23 16:07:17 @am19psu Then read it again. https://t.co/Z0Yd8LTNPd 2021-02-23 16:05:21 @JohnSkylar Huge indoor component. There's an actual CDC report with genomic sequencing. Infections happened at restaurants/workplaces. 2021-02-23 16:04:21 @am19psu Read the article! 2021-02-23 16:03:30 @wrightwb No. Looked into that. It went along with an enormous amount of watching/drinking together in bars & 2021-02-23 16:00:36 Outdoor transmission is not impossible, though seems to be really high bar, so far. It may even happen because something *changes* that we should be aware of. At some point, though absence of evidence *is* evidence exactly because we are looking hard. So please send counters! 2021-02-23 15:56:40 Request: I'm not aware of any outdoor-only superspreader event. The rare confirmed outdoor transmission cases usually involve lengthy and high-exertion (huffing & 2021-02-23 15:41:22 @WesPegden Yep. Risk compensation as a threat is very dominant way of thinking (look at it even now with the post-vaccine mask messaging) plus, in fairness, many of these people fought the good fight for years *in hospitals* trying to get other doctors to wash their hands. Last war and all. 2021-02-23 15:27:58 @WesPegden It wasn't just foot dragging because of inertia though. They didn't believe it, or worried that it would displace hand-washing. (I was told this, directly). This is what I mean by the amnesia—I wish it were a fight in the weeds like that about the precise cut-offs or knowledge. 2021-02-23 15:25:09 @roelschroeven Most examples I managed to track down (and there are very few) are outdoor/indoor events or misreported. For example, the review paper you link cites a German park incident. If you look at the reference, there is no such case. Not impossible for sure but... Not seen reports. 2021-02-23 15:20:30 @roelschroeven Yeah I interviewed the author. Paper has seven cases of transmission to three or more people. If you look at the data, it's all three, not "three or more". I actually track down the rarese reports, and have found very few purely outdoor settings. (Jogging together is one). 2021-02-23 15:11:47 @WesPegden It will soon become "oh, the knowledge advanced that's why we updated it" because willful amnesia is very human. It's true we have some new knowledge, but if you look at the actual evidence folks trying to communicate in Feb/March/April had enormous amount of evidence. 2021-02-23 15:09:56 @WesPegden There are key scientific but crucial errors in the knowledge (literal errors, as in wrong numbers for key but crucial parameters) that the smallish but actual crowd of experts in the field have not been able to get the agencies etc. to correct. 2021-02-23 15:08:38 @WesPegden I spent months writing & 2021-02-23 03:54:31 @briansowards 2021-02-22 23:31:53 @SunnyDfan4eva @apoorva_nyc @GonzoFrankD @benjmueller You’re spouting nonsense. That wasn’t the question whatsoever 2021-02-22 22:39:03 @joshtpm I can totally believe that. I've just decided to point this out because the frequency of the "we're a nonprofit so won't pay" demands I get from nonprofits with executives in high six-seven figure range salaries means... it must work on some people. Wanted to warn folks. 2021-02-22 22:34:53 @sdbaral @apoorva_nyc @benjmueller I'm just looking for examples of the "they're perfect" messaging directed at the public from anyone with standing/reach. I've actually been looking and see a lot of the other kind if I'm missing it. 2021-02-22 22:32:10 @apoorva_nyc @GonzoFrankD @benjmueller That's certainly enthusiastic and leaving aside the earrings part, it's a.. well, somewhat random person on Twitter who's not saying something factually wrong. Are you seeing any "they're perfect" messaging directed at the public? I'm seeing so much of the opposite, so curious. 2021-02-22 22:14:51 @GonzoFrankD @apoorva_nyc @benjmueller Yeah, me too. I’d love to see the counter-examples she’s referring to. 2021-02-22 22:06:09 @apoorva_nyc @benjmueller Is anyone “blithely saying they’re perfect”? Would love to see an example! 2021-02-22 21:03:59 I’m just putting this out there because I’ve been hearing people feel guilty turning such stuff down! No, no, no. You do not need to feel guilty! Your time and expertise is valuable. Donate it, if you’re in a position to do so, to worthy causes—not to salaries of already wealthy. 2021-02-22 20:51:25 I’ve had that exact scenario NGO ask me to work for free because they are “nonprofit”. There are genuinely cash-strapped organizations doing great work and deserve support but usually if they ask, they’re apologetic and explain their situation. No “nonprofit, won’t pay” rudeness. https://t.co/LgcjxzA6v1 2021-02-22 19:21:03 @gshotwell @ATabarrok I think you are not involved in and just making guesses based on... nothing? My experience is that they are pushing existing supply out very very fast, and are indeed then spending long amounts of time sitting on their hands due to lack of supply. 2021-02-22 18:50:48 @memoir_author Because it takes time to test these things. You should seek your conspiracy under another rock 2021-02-22 18:43:06 @mattyglesias @jbarro @ATabarrok We're just getting some new data that Pfizer/Moderna may be able to relax some of the cold-chain requirements too. I know this sounds hard to believe but *if* things hold up as scheduled, we may well soon have an excess. J& 2021-02-22 18:39:48 @jbarro @ATabarrok The one concern I share is that it may be that the supply is about to go up drastically, and we may hit another distribution wall. But where I am, we've been supply constrained and vaccinating under capacity for almost a month now. 2021-02-22 18:38:36 Looking up that IRS 990 makes life easier. There is no reason for anyone to work for free for an NGO where the staff asking you to work for free because "non-profit" pay themselves that much. An actually cash-strapped organisation doing good work? Different story—as time allows. 2021-02-22 18:34:29 @ATabarrok I think at the moment it really is supply though. We will have ramped up supply soon, it looks like so the better question might be are we ready for that? 2021-02-22 18:33:24 Tip for folks who get the "work for free for us because we're a non-profit" line. To sort through it, look up their IRS "990" which lists executive salaries. I've had NGOs that pay their executives high six & 2021-02-22 18:20:17 @ATabarrok Why do you think vaccination clinics are held back by hours, not supply? I think supply is the key bottleneck in most places. (I don't doubt there are still some locales that could speed up but overall... The overwhelming bottleneck seems like supply). 2021-02-22 17:51:36 @GYamey Yeah. Big problem with these highly-credentialed people making what are, most charitably, questionable or highly-exaggerated claims about the vaccines now because they have some other goal—prioritization scheme—is that you cannot later easily adjust or turn off messaging. 2021-02-22 17:38:03 @GYamey I don't get these overstatements. They seem to want to prioritize the elderly—which doesn't require the rest. What are people supposed to think after a professor of medicine at Stanford says vaccine immunity "is not as effective as the immunity conferred by natural infection." 2021-02-22 17:31:24 @lisalibrarian So glad to hear that! Being able to make that book @creativecommons has been rewarding! 2021-02-22 17:19:58 RT @DavisHumanities: Have you registered for the Mellon Sawyer Seminar on Contemporary Political Struggle: Social Movements, Social Surveil… 2021-02-22 15:07:40 RT @MaxCRoser: A good thread on an important point. The impulse for many was to condemn what they could see – people in parks, streets, bea… 2021-02-22 14:30:06 RT @JuliaLMarcus: Fixed it for you, @NBCNewYork https://t.co/uAp3QnWHPy 2021-02-22 13:37:16 RT @awgaffney: More reassuring news: COVID vaccination reported to be highly effective at preventing hospitalization in Scotland (I’m sure… 2021-02-22 03:35:52 @epidatageek Yeah 2021-02-22 00:31:43 @togelius @flantz @razsaremi @LilianTogelius Congratulations! 2021-02-21 22:48:07 *called. Only once! Sorry typing on the phone only goes so far. https://t.co/Ad7kJIvVg0 2021-02-21 21:19:16 @tressiemcphd Car hack. Still driving a 21-year old Civic because... no. 2021-02-21 21:18:12 @tressiemcphd Yes totally to sports medicine! That’s my hack, too. They are used to “how do I get back to X” and a functional approach rather than “you seem fine, I’m not going to bother with this relatively small to ME thing even though it clearly is functionally very important to you!” 2021-02-21 20:56:38 @Kepler1649c I didn't mean it in an unkind manner, more that you have a choice. We *do* know a lot about these things, and reading the papers and paying attention to the denominator is really a good idea. Have a good day! 2021-02-21 20:24:42 @hudsonsims Thank you! 2021-02-21 20:23:42 @BRok_Horrible @EricTopol @NateSilver538 @notdred So if something is not stopping mild disease, the public/journalist interpretation can be that it's completely powerless against severe disease (because they think of it like height of a wall holding back a tide) rather than how the immune system works (layered/staged response). 2021-02-21 20:22:17 @BRok_Horrible @EricTopol @NateSilver538 @notdred I think a lot about what the public is hearing, I think I figured out a key problem there. Study: "it's not preventing mild/breakthrough disease". Public/journalist hears "Oh, it must be even weaker against severe disease!" Of course, that's not how it works because T cells etc. 2021-02-21 20:14:27 @AAMortazavi @EricTopol @NateSilver538 @notdred I don't know. I can't judge case/testing reporting from India beyond the obvious: younger age-structure, climate, relative lack of A/C-sealed indoor spaces. We'll eventually learn if there's an Aedes aegypti type unknown X factor or if it's reporting or stochastic factors? Dunno. 2021-02-21 20:06:13 @EricTopol @NateSilver538 @notdred ...and I think what SA did made sense, in terms of a precautionary step. Still, though, some of the reporting made it seem like the B.1.351 had, for sure, had complete immune escape rather than, hmm, concerning, let's . (Again, I know you didn't but people were losing hope). 2021-02-21 20:03:12 @EricTopol @NateSilver538 @notdred Maybe a cautionary example of not extrapolating from small-n (confidence interval crossing zero, no indication about severe disease) or from in vitro studies of neutralizing antibodies to how the whole immune system will behave? I know *you* know and there was cause for concern+ 2021-02-21 19:54:45 @Kepler1649c @mariachong @sacca @CDCgov You can choose to misinform yourself by not considering the denominator (because risk has to be relative to baseline) and not reading the papers, but letting yourself be panicked by the second-hand reporting. Or not! Have a good day. 2021-02-21 19:53:26 @Kepler1649c @mariachong @sacca @CDCgov Yes, absolutely. Many many millions of people flying (the denominator) and very little known spread. Read the actual paper you just linked. It is one of the few, very rare examples and... most of the "13 cases" are linked to TRAVELING TOGETHER BEFORE AND AFTER. Read the paper. 2021-02-21 19:44:34 @Kepler1649c @mariachong @sacca @CDCgov Airplanes have aggressive air exchange, vertical air flow & 2021-02-21 17:59:11 @HikerDave57 Yikes sorry. Yeah, that sucks. I've been lucky so far last year, but then I bike pretty mild trails. Also, low center-of-gravity as, ahem, petite person. Also risk-averse. Only once did I find myself at truly steep/technical trails. Walked all the big jumps and didn't go back. 2021-02-21 17:54:16 @virginiahume Yeah. My day-to-day usefulness on all this may THANKFULLY AND HOPEFULLY be nearing its expiration date, and may well get that book to write itself by ... staring at the screen. (Joke, I do like writing. Just a matter of time/attention allocation). But what a year for all that. 2021-02-21 17:50:56 @KoenSwinkels There's a difference. We *do* know of a lot of superspreading events indoors, just not any outdoors. If I may encourage you to check out the overdispersion aspect. Lots of places got away with such indoor events, but some did not, and it was catastrophic. https://t.co/59YgSSHdEZ 2021-02-21 17:42:00 @HikerDave57 I do a lot of both! Same, and I think both are very safe activities as far as COVID goes (well, don't go over your handlebars). 2021-02-21 17:35:54 RT @jayrosen_nyu: Reposting. A few months ago, someone asked me for three or four changes in political journalism that might begin to right… 2021-02-21 17:26:33 @gurupanguji Thank you! 2021-02-21 17:25:36 @sacca @mariachong @mugecevik With that mental model, downside: close contact is always an issue especially if unmasked talking/shouting—though seems some people can generate a lot of these floaty pieces just by breathing. Upside: anything that dilutes concentration (air/wind) or deactivates (sun) is helpful. 2021-02-21 17:21:11 @sacca @mariachong @mugecevik I think, eventually, we'll learn "droplets"—emissions that travel with gravity—were minor threat from people who weren't coughing/sneezing but the floaty pieces (aerosols) were responsible for even most of the close-contact spread. Otherwise, you'd see a lot more outdoor spread. 2021-02-21 17:15:28 @sacca @mariachong I'd ask @mugecevik (she's excellent for tracking such things). I'm not aware of a confirmed case but I think it's certainly possible for unmasked, lengthy talking from a close distance to transmit. Superspreading? I think that's a lot less likely. 2021-02-21 17:07:57 @catzoup Thank you! I'm glad my work was useful to you and your family/friends. 2021-02-21 16:56:03 @sacca @mariachong After a year of effort, I know of very, very few documented cases of purely outdoor transmission—and those took work: lengthy, close contact, huffing and puffing from a close distance—let alone superspreading. Good to be reasonably cautious, but not high on my risk calculations. 2021-02-21 16:53:27 @sacca @mariachong I did not see any convincing data of a spike from BLM protests—should have been observable given the scale. Of course, it was possible especially if it spilled indoors—but they seemed to be outdoors/masked. The widely-condemned Lake of the Ozarks party also didn't cause a spike. 2021-02-21 16:48:33 @fredricokt @bengardnernyc That article doesn't point to any cases linked to the event, let alone 200? Outdoor spread isn't impossible, but it would certainly be big news if we had 200 cases from an outdoor-only event. 2021-02-21 16:39:03 @nogenderid @CPHO_Canada @CMOH_Alberta Thank you! 2021-02-21 16:36:07 Predictions beyond a month or so are hard (too many variables interacting/too many unknowns) but here's what we do know. Things ARE absolutely looking up. But we're not out of the woods yet. But there are many things we *can* do more safely now, and even more after vaccination. 2021-02-21 16:33:08 I don't know. It's not impossible but to me, it looks less likely than it did in early January—more data. Cases down, vaccinations up, seasonality in our favor. I support sensible precautions (go outdoors! wear masks indoors!) & 2021-02-21 16:29:30 RT @NaomiOhReally: Might it help restrictions to be more sustainable if they distinguished between high risk (indoors) and low risk (outdoo… 2021-02-21 16:28:57 @TomPaineToday @msmacb It can. I've been tracking the COVID ones religiously and it's possible but not easy. (I know of a reported case from Italy: jogging outdoors for a long time, unmasked and talking (probably yelling at) to each other from close distance). 2021-02-21 16:27:11 @realStevenWalk @LizzieCross Yep! 2021-02-21 16:22:57 @nogenderid Yep! Europe, too. Baseless nonsense. Do you have links to the Canada officials saying that? 2021-02-21 16:22:15 @virginiahume Thank you. Pondering, wondering indeed. I never thought I'd live through such a year! 2021-02-21 16:21:42 @wiscoDude I don't either. I get told to shut up because of that pretty much every day. If anything, though, I am very very very pro expertise and science. 2021-02-21 16:20:49 RT @LizzieCross: Not highlighting the indoor portion of this event was a huge error in reporting and discourse surrounding the discussion o… 2021-02-21 16:20:07 @ibrake4ants Yeah wise. It was not a good idea to hold that big an event for that long. But it was not an outdoor superspreading event. 2021-02-21 16:16:15 To the people telling me about the Sturgis rally. Forget the trad/social media moral panic—and the speculative reporting & 2021-02-21 16:08:51 @oncallprofile With a huge indoor component. 2021-02-21 16:08:36 Again, you *could* find the info on social media if you manage to find & 2021-02-21 16:06:09 @jason_koebler A whole year of this, yeah. 2021-02-21 16:05:39 @jemisonthorsby There was a huge indoor component to the event. 2021-02-21 16:05:18 I'd start the missteps on January 1, 2020 to be honest. Downplaying an exponential risk, being unable to judge what we were seeing before & 2021-02-21 16:02:25 @tommyunger I think it started on January 1, 2020 to be honest. 2021-02-21 15:59:18 @oh_that_crab I realize he is small potatoes and not worth my anger personally, but I actually loathe that guy and everything he represents. Unscientific, smug, baseless-scolding, social-media outrage seeking total and absolute jerk that had no redeeming feature I could discern. 2021-02-21 15:52:32 Cognitive biases, moral panics, authoritarian impulses, victim-blaming, groupthink, traditional & 2021-02-21 15:47:28 REMEMBER THE FLORIDA GRIM REAPER BEACH JERK? The lawyer dressed up as grim reaper, approaching complete strangers in Florida beaches and holding lengthy, scolding conversations with them posted on social media for ridicule and many RTs? Probably the only risk they faced was him. 2021-02-21 15:45:24 Here's by piece pleading to stop the beach-scolding from last July, with a thread that kept going and going... I had stopped updating it but it turns out we're not tired of beach-scolding so some new entries recently. https://t.co/z8aKG05gfq? 2021-02-21 15:43:11 People asking about variants. Of course. We should *up* our cautions, till we get more clarity. This was my piece from last day of 2020. Absolutely stand by it. New murky threat with exponential fuel: up your cautions. Clarity+data? Adjust & 2021-02-21 15:38:02 This is what I'd expect. It's been a year and I am not aware of a single outdoor-only superspreader event. It's not impossible but after a year, it seems low enough risk that I don't really worry about it until we get one. https://t.co/FQGNtvrSza 2021-02-21 15:36:17 @HotZone_Chiller @mattyglesias @JuliaLMarcus Julia is a national treasure. I've learned so much from her. By the end of March last year, I was confident enough to publicly call for opening up parks and encourage outdoor socializing. I wasn't leaning forward. It was clear as day, even then. https://t.co/kREHFjFHJP 2021-02-21 15:33:22 @PunditPandemic I know. I work there. 2021-02-21 15:31:16 It makes sense to be extra cautious at first when facing a murky, exponential threat. But if we don't then adjust the communication and the rules as the shape of the risk becomes clearer & 2021-02-21 15:28:06 I was trying, desperately, to warn us to get ready in February of 2020—and being lectured about being too panicky—but also trying to swat down the baseless moral panic once we started having more clarity on the shape of the risk—and being told, a lot, to stay in my lane. 2021-02-21 15:26:28 @binney_z UNC is testing properly this time (unlike last time!) and this is where some qualitative work would be really helpful: asking the students what they did and did not do/or know. A spike would have been possible, but a superspreading event would surely have an indoor component. 2021-02-21 15:22:00 I published my first piece pleading to keep parks open & 2021-02-21 15:09:35 Nope. It was a maskless and prolonged indoor event. We just got more media pictures from the outdoors portion because... looking for keys under the light is easier. (Outdoor transmission isn't impossible. Just really rare and much harder). https://t.co/MAYP8JfDcx 2021-02-21 14:47:49 @binney_z It is always the concern, and the best way to address it seems to me to be to not to punish them for the safest part of the event, and inform and empower them about what not to do? Otherwise yeah that’s what we will get: indoor parties out of our sight. 2021-02-21 14:36:45 @Bjornapoor That’s the kind of concern you address by addressing the actual concern—rather than the safest parts of event. 2021-02-21 14:19:06 @Blondetown We have data from around the world for a whole year. 2021-02-21 14:17:09 RT @jessicaesquire: Meanwhile we act like plastic dividers and social distancing is all we need if you're in an indoor space that's poorly… 2021-02-21 14:16:59 @Sociability Where there is very little evidence of any spread with a few mitigations, especially for younger ages. 2021-02-21 14:13:58 No doubt young people can contribute a lot to spread, but the way to deal with that is to figure out the risks and avoid driving them into crowded indoor socializing and to test them often. (Also don’t gather them in dorms & 2021-02-21 14:10:59 The amount of energy we spend confidently predicting catastrophe from things we can see while ignoring a year of evidence on where the high risk are—indoors, workplaces, mostly poor and minority essential workers, crowded housing, congregate living, elderly. 2021-02-21 14:06:56 I’m not saying it was a wise thing to rush out to celebrate. But how many events like this have we had? Outdoors but widely condemned, confidently called called superspreader. But wasn’t, barely reported. (UNC tests all students on campus twice a week and off campus once a week). https://t.co/qWYZKnX1fR 2021-02-21 13:41:41 RT @BallouxFrancois: This is yet another great thread by @apsmunro about children and #COVID19, calm, considerate, thoughtful and knowledge… 2021-02-21 13:10:37 RT @rvenkayya: This is an excellent overview of the complexity of mRNA vaccine manufacturing. An mRNA batch currently takes 110 days from… 2021-02-21 02:03:44 @balleyne Yeah, NOPE. 2021-02-21 01:30:24 Yes, but. Vaccination + seasonality + more infections work against that. But especially vaccinations. That’s the true way out. https://t.co/G4sZoolpsj 2021-02-21 01:15:39 “partial population immunity changes the threshold at which behavioral change produces a plummet in cases....” https://t.co/kcuVdBMrdO 2021-02-20 22:46:36 RT @DarrenShiroma: Flight attendants train for situations like this annually, and are re-certified in emergency, evacuation, and safety/sec… 2021-02-20 22:27:27 @balleyne Thank you! It’s less the lack of funds, more the everything going on! 2021-02-20 22:26:12 @dotsandlines What?? 2021-02-20 21:34:52 @balleyne Heh, thank you. I'll take a vacation. I'm not particularly tired, and certainly not bored, but wouldn't mind a vacation because I'm out of things to do for the moment. 2021-02-20 19:07:40 @kitcolbert @joinClubhouse Thank you! 2021-02-20 19:05:39 @ChorzempaMartin Thank you! 2021-02-20 18:56:43 @jubrilade_ You don't say. 2021-02-20 18:55:39 @Aelkus YEP, and it works, and keep wondering about the counterfactual world where this category of content/personality/audience had not merged with the conversation around pandemic measures? 2021-02-20 18:37:28 Shame on you for not enjoying this amazing thing. HOW DARE YOU NOT HAVE FUN YOU IGNORANT IDIOT. Also, I got the wrong rover, and the sound is fake but you're not ENJOYING THIS? Scrolling for memes, you dunce? Would totally work to get people to discover the wonder science. 2021-02-20 18:31:32 I love all the Mars robot stuff. I also think you should feel free to scroll past all the people shaming others for whatever they derive pleasure from without harming others. You won't catch the pleasure of science or learning from them. Check the RTs for how incentives matter. https://t.co/GKbDw8HpoL 2021-02-20 18:29:14 RT @andrew_croxford: Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci for the Nobel Prize. https://t.co/nQH02JjOOo 2021-02-20 17:06:29 RT @AstroKatie: Snopes on that faked Mars video going around -> Follow @NASAPersevere if you want the real stuff!… 2021-02-20 16:55:00 @amaherYAH No. Weak studies with weak claims have explored that option, not conclusive and not supported and a lot of evidence *against*. 2021-02-20 16:12:21 I wrote about just that. We absolutely could have distinguished between the strong reasons to suspect their statement before January 20th and the strong reasons to *believe* them afterwards. Knowing what to believe, and when and why is a crucial skill. https://t.co/zjCeNROFSe https://t.co/9qJm5GliSL 2021-02-20 15:35:31 @DrSnowInBus Yeah. The amount of excellent work we got from them immediately after they were allowed to share with us, right after January 20th. They must have barely slept. I remember that week: reading, being amazed and also realizing we were absolutely going to get hit with a pandemic. 2021-02-20 15:26:02 I’m on the record insisting that China’s initial coverup was costly, terrible & 2021-02-20 15:21:53 I keep saying this, but February 2020 felt like an out-of-body experience. It wasn’t just Trump (though of course he is responsible, culpable and he was terrible) who was in in denial. At some point, when things are calmer, we really need a reckoning on due alarm versus alarmism. 2021-02-20 15:16:26 The key problem, in a nutshell. “We thought this was a far away problem that had to do with China, but it was already here with us, and not just from that February 20th but probably from much earlier.” https://t.co/cOhwnYyrYR 2021-02-20 15:14:13 Anniversary of Europe’s first lockdown in Italy where ~95K people died of COVID. A 38-year old man shows up at ER, can’t breathe but he only had dinner with people just back from China, he wasn’t in China. So not part of testing! Doctors had to fight to break protocol to test. https://t.co/oVp7JwcwRI 2021-02-20 13:59:32 @yashar This is a version of blaming the pandemic on “covidiots”. Not that there aren’t any irresponsible people, but most of the pandemic victims in this country are minorities and the poor—because they are the essential workers who let us “just stay home” and the vulnerable elderly. 2021-02-20 13:04:38 @DoctorChrisVT @TheAtlantic Thank you! 2021-02-20 04:05:48 @smlyc @florasutherland It is much much much better than that! 2021-02-20 03:57:30 @lorenzofb Many do tbh. 2021-02-20 03:06:32 Oh I forgot. The below is false, too. There is no such “20-fold decrease in vax efficacy” or anything of the sort due to variants. (The best I can make out of this is she’s confusing lab reports about neutralizing antibodies with vaccine efficacy, something very very different). https://t.co/924j351U9Z 2021-02-20 02:48:56 RT @pomeranian99: That mental picture we all have of “how an iceberg floats”? It’s wrong, and illustrations of the correct way are super c… 2021-02-20 02:37:18 RT @chaykak: "we received multiple requests from the bases to develop an algorithm that could automatically detect when a Douyin user spoke… 2021-02-20 01:26:13 @DKThomp *after that. 2021-02-20 01:14:54 @DKThomp Right. There's a difference between being a stopped doomsday clock who happened to be correct when the time was right, and being prescient in a useful manner that. Not that everyone has to be right all the time, but the above is... nonsense. It's not even wrong. 2021-02-20 01:11:54 @MarkC53916729 I know. In fairness, lots of people were surprised. But, of course, the point is some people are better at figuring out where things are going. 2021-02-20 01:08:04 @Ryan_Mac_Phd Heh. But yeah, there is a lot of excellent stuff on social media, but what's in front of regular people on TV, from prominent social media folks, from regular media (not the misinformation channels)... Wildly varying quality/accuracy. 2021-02-20 00:14:44 I just want to add that to this thread and note that the below is nonsense. With all due respect to her good work before, this has become an unacceptable situation. (And I’ve ignored multiple other examples). https://t.co/6FR0y8jpsJ 2021-02-19 21:29:53 @karolkarpinski Heh. I know the feeling as a survey person, but obviously ones done with proper prep can be good. The problem here is that they're providing canned answers that clearly don't reflect a pandemic landscape, and thus a lot of unknown unknown land. 2021-02-19 20:45:51 RT @JenniferNuzzo: Vax willingness may be increasing, but that doesn't mean there isn't still lots of hesitancy out there, especially among… 2021-02-19 20:45:42 @JenniferNuzzo @joshmich Also the polls aren't asking either the range or the the in-depth questions we need, so looking at them to prove what's driving different segments of the hesitancy isn't very useful, to say the least. If you don't ask, and only provided limited options, you won't hear answers. 2021-02-19 20:09:15 RT @AriBerman: Why new voter suppression bills in Georgia so dangerous: during Georgia primary voters in predominantly white areas waited… 2021-02-19 19:35:02 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander The piece is highlighting *one* aspect that has been echoed (he even quotes some) by many many public health, epi and risk-communication people in the last few months. Maybe could put one line there this isn't the whole story? Sure. No one thing is ever the full story. 2021-02-19 19:03:39 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander Ideally we'd have launched a big qualitative study to understand this (under pandemic conditions) in December and started messaging on a better footing, but we are where we are. One can't fix Fox but can fix/address what's more under public health and now, finally, CDC influence. 2021-02-19 19:01:44 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander If you talk to people working in LTCF vaccinations, you do hear a lot of decline as combination of: too fast development/safety, "I think I already had it", and makes no difference to my life (transmission mismessaging). 2021-02-19 19:00:02 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander (Also if you track the Fox and Fox-adjacent anti-vaxxer crowd, you'll see them constantly and quite deliberately amplifying the kind of messages that David's piece is highlighting. So while there are multiple strands here, they do interact, too). 2021-02-19 18:58:40 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander I don't think of this as giving Fox a free pass though. Also yes and no. A pandemic means you have new twists to what is certainly an older story. (Btw our polling data sucks because we skipped the "it's a pandemic so need to do some qual work to develop the answer choices" bit.) 2021-02-19 18:28:45 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander *resolve . My concern here is that, with all things pandemic, waiting to act till the problem hits us full-force will mean it will be too late. Dr. Fauci is already on the record saying hesitancy is his biggest concern, but not sure what their *concrete* plan is. 2021-02-19 18:24:22 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander The people who coming to the UNC vaccine clinics couldn't be happier. Millions who want to get vaccinated ASAP and don't have access are anxious and enthusiastic. None of that erases the other, concurrent and soon-to-be more visible problem of those who are not so enthusiastic. 2021-02-19 18:23:00 @Ryan_Mac_Phd @iskander Of course. Multiple things exist *at the same time.* There is an enormous unmet demand (which will resolves fairly soon as the supply numbers are looking great) AND a significant number of people who are saying they will not, and a large number of HCW who already declined. 2021-02-19 18:16:14 @iskander @Ryan_Mac_Phd Haven't seen at national surveys that separate—and what surveys we do have aren't great—but we have multiple streams of evidence for strikingly high level of HCW hesitancy and everyone I talked to at the national and federal level is worried out of their minds about this already. 2021-02-19 17:43:08 @EricTopol Hello, phase IV. 2021-02-19 16:43:42 @AaronRichterman @DLeonhardt @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT Exactly! 2021-02-19 16:40:11 @anita_makri Thank you! 2021-02-19 16:39:55 @DLeonhardt @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT I've been talking with people on the ground, monitoring a variety of channels/conversations and... I think we've started off the wrong foot, for sure, and as we have seen with masks etc. screwing up early messaging isn't something one fixes easily by changing the message later. 2021-02-19 16:38:34 @DLeonhardt @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT The other problem is pre-pandemic research only goes so far to understand/estimate dynamics in a new and so comprehensively different situation so the current polls are almost misleading (because of how polls are designed/conducted). 2021-02-19 16:36:26 @DLeonhardt @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT Yep. The frustrating thing is every time one points this out (which yeah I've been doing for months now because this started Nov/Dec!) someone says what about these other reasons/currents for vaccine hesitancy. YES, OF COURSE. That doesn't make this concern irrelevant or minor. 2021-02-19 16:16:26 @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT Am writing longer. I don't think anyone, and definitely not @DLeonhardt is denying the access/equity parts (saying this because this happens on Twitter: make point X, get accused of ignoring point Y) but clearly, enthusiasm AND messaging/rules matter especially for younger crowd. 2021-02-19 16:14:36 @AlexMLeo @DKThomp @EdCara4 @jmartNYT Agree vaccine hesitancy is complex, multi-causal and has multiple currents at the moment. Current polling sucks (because it's based on preconceived pre-pandemic understanding of hesitancy which isn't how you do these things). But disagree about the "margins" comment. 2021-02-19 15:29:20 RT @theosanderson: It is now likely that more people in England have been exposed to SARS-CoV2 spike protein through vaccination than in… 2021-02-19 15:16:17 @CTMathewes @sin_danger @DLeonhardt No problem. Glad to clarify. 2021-02-19 15:12:13 @CTMathewes @DLeonhardt The ones he is reporting are on less dependent on estimates/inferences (which the CDC was clear about, just misreported), and he is absolutely right that refusal/hesitancy rates are high and it is a real problem and our messaging needs to adjust. 2021-02-19 14:52:13 @MDaware @rosalind1485 AAARGH. Sorry. Yeah. 2021-02-19 14:41:37 @AdrianoAguzzi Yeah, of course. But pure polling on an emerging situation can quickly mislead, especially if we're doing automated/online polling (which we are) with limited options. Qualitative work is labor-intense but can really inform quantitative phase. 2021-02-19 14:36:54 @norabird @JHWeissmann Different problems here, though. Some of the surveys probably have their numbers wrong/inflated. Some don't. Military probably does have real numbers (those people don't qualify otherwise). But hesitancy/refusal absolutely IS a problem. 2021-02-19 14:35:22 That's right. I'm correcting here publicly and hoping for a correction soon because misreporting higher than real refusal rates—and this is absolutely higher than real for sure—can *contribute* to more refusal because that's how it always works. https://t.co/YNGAeY6tLF 2021-02-19 14:31:52 I suspect this is happening right now. You cannot just take prepandemic research/insights and apply them, as-is, to a novel situation like the current one. What are we missing/distorting? We won't know till you do the legwork. This is so important, though. https://t.co/K6VQxlSqhY 2021-02-19 14:26:41 @CTMathewes @DLeonhardt I don't think his stats are off. 2021-02-19 14:25:35 When I last designed a survey, we first put in a lot of time for qualitative data—it is intense work, to be honest. Of course, then, we had time and now we need to be quick. It is a challenge, but we should do what we can. Qualitative insights are not "anecdotes"—it's essential. 2021-02-19 14:20:40 Yes. The actual report is aware of this measurement issue, and does not claim 63% refused. I'm now wondering how many of our other refusal stats are off similarly. (Also every poll I've seen has limited options that fit preconceived notions of the "why"). https://t.co/dcc44eAUh7 2021-02-19 14:18:02 Anyone who works in teaching/conducting surveys sociologically can tell you that they can *shape* information flows, not just report it: especially in this current environment where a lot of things are unprecedented. NEED HIGH-QUALITY QUALITATIVE WORK ASAP. 2021-02-19 14:15:49 So here's the actual data with something really really important highlighted. (37.5% vaccinated: some of rest may have been vaccinated elsewhere, not yet offered, and then there is the (unknown) hesitancy/refusal portion). We need a rapid effort on this, and just polls won't do. https://t.co/1QPxCXeGxa 2021-02-19 14:11:40 Buried within this story about long-term care facilities, there is an alarming statistic claiming 63% of staff "refused" the vaccine. There is high rates of hesitancy and deferral among staff, it *is* a crisis, but the CDC report does not say 63% "refused." https://t.co/9d16ePo3nZ 2021-02-19 01:47:56 @yilingliu95 Thank you! 2021-02-19 01:06:07 RT @MattGertz: A valiant effort from @jbarro but really impossible to parody these people. https://t.co/I9Lz3mn4na 2021-02-18 21:43:59 @sceptre1067 @svershbow Once a week for the rest of the year 2021-02-18 21:41:23 Overly defensive: not enough risk-taking, too bad. More experimental? Well, one screw-up and that's it. Point out the unequal treatment? Well, you did screw-up, stop whining and trying to blame others. Meanwhile... LOOK GENIUS OVER THERE *on his seventh free try*. 2021-02-18 21:37:50 Of course, this changes everything. The people with endless second chances don't have to be so defensive. They can experiment, screw up, do something terrible etc. Meanwhile, those who know that once they're down, they're going to be kicked... Very few good options there. 2021-02-18 21:36:33 One of the biggest differences in how a modern society operates unequally isn't whether the people who screwed something up actually did so, but who gets endless second chances without being tripped up on their way, and who doesn't. 2021-02-18 21:24:30 Well, she'd be shamed, of course, and it would come up pretty much for the rest of her career and there'd rarely be any other topic she could address without this topic coming up. That said, people might actually believe her... Unlike, you know. https://t.co/c8wPHbhvin 2021-02-18 21:19:46 RT @tweetsoutloud: YOUR PACKAGE WAS SUCCESSFULLY DELIVERED AT 12:55 PM. PACKAGE WAS LEFT IN A SECURE LOCATION IN JEZERO CRATER. https://t.c… 2021-02-18 21:19:21 @eldahshan That *was* the joke! 2001-01-01 01:01:01

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